Game of the week in the MVFC with big playoff implications amongst the seeds. As crazy as this sounded a week ago SDSU may even be in a must win scenario next week at rival USD to make the playoffs if they drop this one. UNI doesn't really need this to get into the playoffs (I think they could still be a seed even with a loss) but they could play themselves into a top 4 seed and homefield guaranteed until the FCS semis at least if they win it.
Despite SDSU's surprising loss last week they're still favored by 6 points in this game by 5dimes and Massey and by about 4.5 points by Sagarin. Here's how they stack up statistically:
Neither team is playing particularly well offensively right now and these are two elite defenses so the 5dimes O/U of 42.5 might even be a bit high in this one.
I think turnovers, as they usually are, are going to be key in this one but especially from SDSU's perspective. UNI is +12 on turnover margin on the year and SDSU was doomed by 4 turnovers last week. I think both defenses are capable of shutting down the other's ground game forcing the opposing offense to be one-dimensional. UNI probably has the better passing game right now but I think SDSU gets a little more traction on the ground against the UNI defense than the UNI offense gets on the SDSU defense and that gives the Jacks the advantage in this one. If SDSU avoids turnovers I think they win a low scoring slobberknocker.
What's your thoughts/prediction?
Reply With Quote
Bookmarks