That Missouri State @ Northern Iowa game threw me, as a top 10 team has no business making that a game. Also, the Bears have not played NDSU, SDSU, or USD yet (and they will avoid USD altogether). They are a top 20, but 10 might be generous, and they are definitely not underrated.Originally Posted by POD Knows
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I do have them in the top 8, but I may have to reevaluate after this week. If looking at current resume and wins, discounting overall SOS, Mercer is probably more deserving with wins over WCU, ETSU, and UTC. Their SOS isn't great due to the early OOC games, but will drop once they get their FBS game like others already have. I always try to look at whether a team has had their FBS game yet since it skews the SOS. The Samford loss is a wart, but not horrendous.
Still a lot of season left. I sm not convinced one of the top teams won't falter throwing a wrench into it. MSU, Idaho, USD, Montana have a few tough games left.
If RI were to somehow win out, I think they are a lock for top 8.
Previous week in parentheses…
1. Montana St. (1)
2. North Dakota St. (2)
3. South Dakota St. (3)
4. UC Davis (4)
5. South Dakota (5)
6. Southeast Missouri St. (6)
7. Incarnate Word (7)
8. Idaho (9)
9. Rhode Island (11)
10. Mercer (12)
11. Abilene Christian (13)
12. Montana (16)
13. Missouri St. (17)
14. Tennessee-Martin (18)
15. Duquesne (15)
16. Richmond (20)
17. Villanova (21)
18. Stony Brook (22)
19. Tarleton St. (10)
20. Eastern Kentucky (NR)
21. Southern Utah (25)
22. Western Carolina (NR)
23. Tennessee-Chattanooga (8)
24. East Tennessee St. (19)
25. Harvard (NR)
Dropped - Central Arkansas (14), North Dakota (24)
W - Eastern Kentucky
L - Central Arkansas
The Mercer loss to Samford is DEFINITELY a wart. And, if Mercer does what they did against Samford playing @ VMI, vs. Furman, or in a Playoff game vs. even a PFL Team, they are quite likely to lose any of those games. Almost any Team would.
So, that said, some context around the ‘wart’ is fair to provide/know in case anyone cares to look deeper than records/scores…as has been the context of most posts in this thread.
At Samford, via a badly shanked Punt, a tipped-in-the-air-INT, and a Strip-Sack given up by a now-backup OT, Mercer was down 21-0 within 4 minutes of Kickoff, on 3 Samford scoring ‘drives’ that averaged less than 24 yards each. Samford earned every one of those TD’s. The shanked punt was Mercer’s only “unforced error” during that disastrous start. Now, overcoming the re-injury loss of their highly-ranked (at the time) Starting QB (on another, later Strip-Sack that was returned for a TD), who was replaced by a True Freshman (who, expectedly, as a True FR pressing in a comeback attempt will, threw a Pick6), Mercer outscored Samford 35-34 in the remaining 56 minutes of the game.
Since acquiring that ugly “wart” on their record, Mercer, in 2 games facing ranked Teams, has also started slowly, falling behind (by as much as 17) in the 1st half of both contests, but, also in both contests, the Bears fought their way back into the game or to leading before halftime and won both.
So, maybe, acquiring the “wart” at Samford provided Mercer with a lesson about playing from behind / mounting a comeback that would be, potentially, highly valuable in a Playoff run. Or, maybe we are learning that Mercer has a fatal flaw of being a slow-starting Team that would / will be a “death sentence” in a Playoff game, or even in their final 2 FCS / SoCon games.
Time will (or may) tell, but Mercer’s loss to Samford did have, IFBO, important context worth considering, and, as Coach P. Harvey always said … “Now you know … … … … the REST of the story.”
Last edited by FUBeAR; November 5th, 2024 at 02:37 AM.
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I already included Mercer as a team that probably should be ahead of UIW in post #24 ("I think Mercer beats UIW (unless they beat themselves).") I didn't state that I would have Mercer over UIW, but I think saying they win H2H implies which team I would rank over the other.
Idaho is fairly heavily favored by Massey in their remaining games. MSU does have 2 tough games, but losing just 1 would likely keep them ahead of UIW (11-1 against a projected 24th hardest schedule vs 10-2 against a schedule whose difficulty is diminishing over the next 3 weeks to #53). USD very possibly takes an L vs #1 NDSU and theoretically finishes 8-3 due to the "Whooping Cough Game", but I'd probably keep them above the Word unless they get destroyed. They lack a real quality win, but the 3 losses would be a 14 pt loss to B1G's Wisco, a road OT loss to the current FCS #3 (who beat UIW by 21) and a loss to the FCS #1. Montana.... that is a possibility for faltering. They can finish anywhere from #3 to out of the playoffs, IMO, which is a weird thing to say about the #9 team with 3 weeks left. It is unlikely, but if they lose out (heavily favored vs PSU), they would be 7-5, best wins are 5 pt home win over a solid Missouri State and 11 points over bubbly NAU and coming in on a 3 game skid. I think the very same NAU, at 7-4, no marquee wins, but no warts and on a 5 game winning streak may bump them.
If Rhody goes 11-1 against the 47th SOS, I would hope they bump 3 teams ahead of them for a top 8. They'd only have quality wins over Delaware and UNH (possibly HC, if they're a playoff participant), but their only loss would be to a 6-3 B1G Minnesota (though it was a ass whooping). UIW for sure, likely the Griz (don't see them winning out and losing 2 of 3 is a real possibility) and probably Mercer, who would be 10-2 against the #58 SOS. Maybe even Idaho, with 3 wins (2 FCS), but that may depend on how the Davis-MSU-UM round robin goes. If UM takes the L to both and the Davis-MSU game is a nail biter, the winner is likely a top 2 and the loser could stay top 5, meaning the Vandals would have a 10 pt loss to #1 Oregon, a 2 pt road loss to Davis (#2 or #4, hypothetically) and an absolute shellacking in Bozeman (the other of #2 or #4) with wins over FBS Wyo and playoff participants (or at least contenders) ACU and NAU.
So teams are not allowed to keep an inferior opponent around longer than expected once in a while, even if they still win? Does the #1 team have any business being down by 12 when taking possession with 2:49 remaining and needing an onside kick recovery to beat the #24 team? Just wondering how much leeway a team gets to play down and still get the win before it's deemed as a knock against them.
Well, clearly you did not look at my ballot (hint: see #1…it is not NDSU). So do so, then try again.
BTW, ETSU appears to be a decent SoCon, but UNI is a bottom MVFC, at least this year. A top 10 does not give up 42 to UNI, and they certainly win by more than one score. Top 20, more likely. #14 is not underrated. Also, take a look at UNI’s season results and please consider reconsidering.
Go ahead and hang on to this post, then go ahead and reference it after Missouri State plays NDSU and SDSU. Maybe it will be in your favor, maybe it won’t. We’ll see. Too bad Missouri State missed the other two Dakotas.
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You have them at #2, AGS has them at #1, basically indistinguishable. That doesn't take away from my point.Well, clearly you did not look at my ballot (hint: see #1…it is not NDSU). So do so, then try again.
BTW, ETSU appears to be a decent SoCon, but UNI is a bottom MVFC, at least this year. A top 10 does not give up 42 to UNI, and they certainly win by more than one score. Top 20, more likely. #14 is not underrated. Also, take a look at UNI’s season results and please consider reconsidering.
Go ahead and hang on to this post, then go ahead and reference it after Missouri State plays NDSU and SDSU. Maybe it will be in your favor, maybe it won’t. We’ll see. Too bad Missouri State missed the other two Dakotas.
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Weird how most times MVFC fans say "a bottom MVFC would still be a mid to upper in XYZ conference".... but not in this case, apparently (Massey has the SoCon as the #5 conference). FWIW, Massey also predicts that UNI would only have one more loss than ETSU if they played ETSU's schedule (42% chance to win at Elon). UNI also was down 14 before getting a garbage-time TD with 44 sec remaining. Does a #2 (#1) give up 35 to ETSU?? That's the most ETSU scored all year.
Does the #11 team lose at home to a bottom Big Sky team (who followed it up by losing to Northern Colorado)? I think you seem to be pretty harshly punishing a team for a "narrow" win over UNI but win nonetheless, which is a bit ironic on a site named Any Given Saturday, and also when NDSU is not without it's own surprising result.
Not a big deal either way since they aren't eligible for playoffs so they won't be over/under-seeded.
Congrats for not including Illinois State in your poll, watch them lose to N Iowa this Saturday
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