SoCon Off-season thread - 2023-2024

[Tribe4SF]

Maybe…Furman lost about 2/3rds of 2023 “Production” on O AND D and FUBeAR believes he read something along the lines of “W&M has everyone coming back” from a Team that was projected to run away with the CAA crown and was ranked as high as #4. And…it’s in W’burg.

We Paladins feel great about our Coaching Staff and also about the upcoming talent in the program, but until they show what they can do on Saturdays, it’s hard to be 100% confident. A win over Ole Miss in the opener would certainly help FUBeAR think Furman might be able to stay on the same field with the triumphant Tribe.

FUBeAR sandbagging? Unheard of!

What you heard about the Tribe was half right. Literally everyone is back on offense with some significant upgrades at WR. The defense loses 7 starters including two All-Americans so that's a different story. The cupboard is hardly bare though as the defense had significant depth last year and has picked up some key transfers and a strong group of redshirts.

[The Cats]

Western Carolina Adds East Carolina for 2027

The Catamounts will travel to Greenville to play the Pirates on Saturday, September 4, 2027. Western Carolina will receive $425,000 for the contest. Per the Western Carolina record books, ECU holds an 18-13 lead in the series dating back to 1936 with ECU holding an 8-game winning streak.

[Milktruck74]

FUBeAR sandbagging? Unheard of!

.

He has his moments where he can be the Lou Holtz of the AGS Board...but he can gloat and over shoot with the best of us!!!

[FUBeAR]

FUBeAR sandbagging? Unheard of!

What you heard about the Tribe was half right. Literally everyone is back on offense with some significant upgrades at WR. The defense loses 7 starters including two All-Americans so that's a different story. The cupboard is hardly bare though as the defense had significant depth last year and has picked up some key transfers and a strong group of redshirts.

He has his moments where he can be the Lou Holtz of the AGS Board...but he can gloat and over shoot with the best of us!!!

As we all know, FUBeAR is nothing if not an invariably facts- and data-centered contributor to this august assemblage of “amateur” athletics aficionados.

Thus, FUBeAR presents his highly instructive 2024 SoCon Returning Production Percentage Matrix (SCRPPM, pronounced as “Scrap ‘em”)…

All Avg Rtng % Rank	Team	Rush ATT Rtng %	Pass ATT Rtng %	Recptns Rtng %		Off Avg Rtng % Rank	Avg Off Rtng %		Def (Tackles) Rtng % Rank	Tackles Rtng %		All Avg Rtng % Rank	All Avg Rtng %
1	Woff	99.54	99.21	69.86		1	89.54		2	67.01		1	78.28
2	Chatt	36.44	100.00	59.57		2	65.34		3	62.70		2	64.02
3	WCU	56.62	93.75	45.59		3	65.32		4	56.29		3	60.81
4	ETSU	62.23	44.54	32.35		4	46.37		6	47.90		4	47.14
5	VMI	50.25	30.70	31.58		5	37.51		5	55.02		5	46.27
6	Mercer	33.20	0.98	32.51		7	22.23		1	67.55		6	44.89
7	Furman	26.18	25.43	48.77		6	33.46		7	31.98		7	32.72
UNK	CIT	No	2024	Roster		is	Posted		Online	Yet		UNK	UNK
UNK	Samford	No	2024	Roster		is	Posted		Online	Yet		UNK	UNK

Discuss…

[caribbeanhen]

Maybe…Furman lost about 2/3rds of 2023 “Production” on O AND D and FUBeAR believes he read something along the lines of “W&M has everyone coming back” from a Team that was projected to run away with the CAA crown and was ranked as high as #4. And…it’s in W’burg.

We Paladins feel great about our Coaching Staff and also about the upcoming talent in the program, but until they show what they can do on Saturdays, it’s hard to be 100% confident. A win over Ole Miss in the opener would certainly help FUBeAR think Furman might be able to stay on the same field with the triumphant Tribe.

But that’s not always good…

The QB is coming back and it seems like he’s been in The Burg since Colonial times

RB Yoder healthy? Is so he is a joy to watch … physical

they had no passing game last year and it showed as early as the Wofford game …. That game, despite whipping those Johnny Reb Doggies, told me something wasn’t right with The Tribe last year

[Tribe4SF]

But that’s not always good…

The QB is coming back and it seems like he’s been in The Burg since Colonial times

RB Yoder healthy? Is so he is a joy to watch … physical

they had no passing game last year and it showed as early as the Wofford game …. That game, despite whipping those Johnny Reb Doggies, told me something wasn’t right with The Tribe last year

You are correct that the offense had issues last year. Short on WRs and then the best of them (DreSean Kendrick) was lost for the season in game four. Yoder was lost as well in game four and he is back along with Malachi Imoh and Martin Lucas at RB. An experienced o-line and three transfer WRs and Kendrick returning should contribute to big offensive strides.

[Milktruck74]

As we all know, FUBeAR is nothing if not an invariably facts- and data-centered contributor to this august assemblage of “amateur” athletics aficionados.

Thus, FUBeAR presents his highly instructive 2024 SoCon Returning Production Percentage Matrix (SCRPPM, pronounced as “Scrap ‘em”)…

All Avg Rtng % Rank	Team	Rush ATT Rtng %	Pass ATT Rtng %	Recptns Rtng %		Off Avg Rtng % Rank	Avg Off Rtng %		Def (Tackles) Rtng % Rank	Tackles Rtng %		All Avg Rtng % Rank	All Avg Rtng %
1	Woff	99.54	99.21	69.86		1	89.54		2	67.01		1	78.28
2	Chatt	36.44	100.00	59.57		2	65.34		3	62.70		2	64.02
3	WCU	56.62	93.75	45.59		3	65.32		4	56.29		3	60.81
4	ETSU	62.23	44.54	32.35		4	46.37		6	47.90		4	47.14
5	VMI	50.25	30.70	31.58		5	37.51		5	55.02		5	46.27
6	Mercer	33.20	0.98	32.51		7	22.23		1	67.55		6	44.89
7	Furman	26.18	25.43	48.77		6	33.46		7	31.98		7	32.72
UNK	CIT	No	2024	Roster		is	Posted		Online	Yet		UNK	UNK
UNK	Samford	No	2024	Roster		is	Posted		Online	Yet		UNK	UNK

Discuss…

I appreciate the data and I think it is a good start to the discussion, but it only shows a partial picture and in no way predicts the potential outcomes for the future season. Take for example, #4 ETSU with 47.14% of their total production returning and #6 Mercer with 44.89% of their total production returning. The difference is fairly negligible, so one could consider them close in returning talent. However, I'd much rather have 44% of the production off a team that went 9-4 and had a playoff win, than 95% (double) off a team that had 2 D1 wins against teams that were 2-20 combined!

Then there is the portal factor...which jacks the whole thing up. Example here would be the Mocs losing almost 100% of their returning pass attempts with the 2022 graduation of Hutchins and Copeland, but then I doubt many would argue the addition of Chase Artopoeus wasn't a significant upgrade in talent.

So yes, returning guys is usually a good thing, but returning productive guys off a winner is much more impactful to the future.

[FUBeAR]

I appreciate the data and I think it is a good start to the discussion, but it only shows a partial picture and in no way predicts the potential outcomes for the future season. Take for example, #4 ETSU with 47.14% of their total production returning and #6 Mercer with 44.89% of their total production returning. The difference is fairly negligible, so one could consider them close in returning talent. However, I'd much rather have 44% of the production off a team that went 9-4 and had a playoff win, than 95% (double) off a team that had 2 D1 wins against teams that were 2-20 combined!

Then there is the portal factor...which jacks the whole thing up. Example here would be the Mocs losing almost 100% of their returning pass attempts with the 2022 graduation of Hutchins and Copeland, but then I doubt many would argue the addition of Chase Artopoeus wasn't a significant upgrade in talent.

So yes, returning guys is usually a good thing, but returning productive guys off a winner is much more impactful to the future.

Yep, yep, yep - that’s the kind of good discussion FUBeAR thought this data might inspire.

Here’s another interesting aspect / anomaly.

Unless you were an Ole Miss fan, you KNOW that Mercer had a dang good Defense in 2023. And that includes the bunnies, who only managed a FG in Q1 and a short field TD thru almost the end of the 1st half, until, with Mercer’s O going 3 & out almost every series, the inevitable arrived. WCU fans might squawk up (as usual) as well cuz they scored a few points after Mercer took a 3 TD lead and held it almost until the 4th quarter….So…anyway, we see that Mercer is ‘#1 on D’ with the most Defensive Tackle production returning. And, we might conclude they are going to be great on D in ‘24.

Welp…they might be, but they lost 2 Safeties in Lance Wise & Richie Coffey that had been there for about a decade and were dual QB’s as well as the heart & soul of the Bears D. And, they lost DE All-Everything Solomon Zubairu up front, who had about 8 years in the Orange & Black and was the tone setter for the front 7. And…even with the loss of those 3, they may have had a bigger loss on D…

Former DC Joel Taylor is now the HC @ West Georgia. Coach Taylor was a true architect / builder of Mercer’s D. He built exactly what he wanted and he led them play like Champions.

Maybe the new DC will be even better and maybe those 3 Players will be replaced by even better Players, but the bar is high. We’ll see if the new Bears can clear it.

[SU DOG]

Our biggest question at Samford is who is the QB? Another question to ask, however, is when did Hatcher last have a dud at that position? The QB room is crowded with some really good ones, but someone will have to step it up in August, as ST did not have any of them elevating above the others (although it seemed down to two). Most improved group was said to be the D-Line. With two of the best LBs in the SoCon returning, the front 7 should be pretty salty. We will not look good on the percentage loss data tables, but there is a lot of experienced returnees who played a good bit last year and some very impressive transfers. Could Samford possibly be a surprise team this year?

[FUBeAR]

Our biggest question at Samford is who is the QB? Another question to ask, however, is when did Hatcher last have a dud at that position? The QB room is crowded with some really good ones, but someone will have to step it up in August, as ST did not have any of them elevating above the others (although it seemed down to two). Most improved group was said to be the D-Line. With two of the best LBs in the SoCon returning, the front 7 should be pretty salty. We will not look good on the percentage loss data tables, but there is a lot of experienced returnees who played a good bit last year and some very impressive transfers. Could Samford possibly be a surprise team this year?

Samford? Salty on D? C’mon….

Y’all going with another 30-40 inbound Xfer’s for the 3rd year in a row…or nah?