CAA Playoff Seed(s) and At-large Scenarios Thread

[UNH Fanboi]

I thought it would be fun to start a season-long thread where we can discuss which CAA teams will get into into the playoffs and get seed(s). I think the CAA will most likely get 4 teams into the playoffs, but there are some scenarios, which I will give one example of below, that could result in the CAA getting 5 teams into the playoffs. This scenario could also result in 3 CAA teams being considered for playoff seeds! Now before all the east-coast bias and CAA haters come in here and flame me, I'm not saying that will or should happen. But it would be a very interesting proposition for the committee depending on what happens in the other conferences.

When mapping out specific scenarios, it will be important to keep in mind which teams do not play each other.

UNH - Delaware
Nova - UMass
JMU - URI
W&M - Towson
Richmond - Maine

The good news so far is that all of the top teams have taken care of their OOC FCS business. The bad news is that only 1 team has 1 FBS win, so every team except JMU (pending W&M's FBS game) will need 5 CAA wins to make the playoffs. That includes Delaware because they played a DII game.

At this point, I think there are 3 tiers in the CAA, with 4 teams fighting for a seed, 3 teams fighting for their playoff lives, and 3 teams looking to play spoiler:

Tier 1:
Nova
JMU
Delaware
UMass

Tier 2:
UNH
W&M
Richmond

Tier 3:
Maine
URI
Towson

There could be movement between those tiers as the season develops, but that's how I see things now.

As we saw with URI upsetting UNH, every team in the CAA is dangerous, so it will be very hard for teams to win every game that they should win, which makes it unlikely that 5 teams will make the playoffs. That being said, consider the following scenario, which isn't too far-fetched:

JMU 7-1 (10-1) - loses to Delaware
Delaware 7-1 (10-1) - loses to Nova
Nova 7-1 (9-2) - loses to JMU
UMass 5-3 (7-4) - loses to Delaware, JMU and UNH
UNH 5-3 (7-4) - loses to Nova, JMU and URI

Given the expanded playoffs, I think a 7-4 CAA team will (or at least should be) a lock for the playoffs. The more interesting question is what would the committee do with those three 7-1 CAA teams? I think JMU would obviously get a seed because of their record and FBS win. But how would you distinguish between Nova and Delaware? Nova would have the head-to-head win, but Delaware would have the better record, though no FBS opponent. Would it be possible for BOTH of them to get seeds if there is carnage in the other conferences. Remember, there will be 5 seeded teams this year.

Anyway, I hope this generates some good discussion throughout the season. Right now everything is very hypothetical, but that's part of the fun!

[superman7515]

It's still September... I can't imagine why some folks find CAA posters obnoxious. Haha.

[UNH Fanboi]

It's still September... I can't imagine why some folks find CAA posters obnoxious. Haha.

This is just the CAA equivalent of TT's playoff prognostications threads. Pure speculation because I'm bored.

[rufus]

It was just announced today that JMU is negotiating to rent Richmond's old stadium if we make the playoffs, since our stadium will be under construction immediately following our last regular season home game. It would definitely be surreal to see that field with JMU paint on it. With the number of fans JMU used to bring to that stadium, it always sort of felt like a home game. Now I suppose it really will be a home game.

[jstclmet]

JMU 7-1 (10-1) - loses to Delaware
Delaware 7-1 (10-1) - loses to Nova
Nova 7-1 (9-2) - loses to JMU
UMass 5-3 (7-4) - loses to Delaware, JMU and UNH
UNH 5-3 (7-4) - loses to Nova, JMU and URI

Given the expanded playoffs, I think a 7-4 CAA team will (or at least should be) a lock for the playoffs. The more interesting question is what would the committee do with those three 7-1 CAA teams? I think JMU would obviously get a seed because of their record and FBS win. But how would you distinguish between Nova and Delaware? Nova would have the head-to-head win, but Delaware would have the better record, though no FBS opponent. Would it be possible for BOTH of them to get seeds if there is carnage in the other conferences. Remember, there will be 5 seeded teams this year.

Anyway, I hope this generates some good discussion throughout the season. Right now everything is very hypothetical, but that's part of the fun!

Nova could be 8 - 0 in the CAA, draw the #1 seed, and the other two could still be worthy of a top 5 seed, but I understand why you gave all 3 one loss. If Nova had to have one loss, it would be more easily digestible if it was at UD vs home to JMU. UD losing to JMU at JMU would probably more easily accepted.

Nova cannot and will not lose to JMU on Oct 23 at home. While the victory down in H-Burg was nice last year, there's some unfinished business that still needs to be resolved on the Main line. Regardless of how many injuries or how thin and depleted Nova will be by the 23rd, JMU needs to be dismembered limb from limb as retribution for that Hail Mary play of two years ago. Then, the world will rotate correctly again.

[GannonFan]

Nova could be 8 - 0 in the CAA, draw the #1 seed, and the other two could still be worthy of a top 5 seed, but I understand why you gave all 3 one loss. If Nova had to have one loss, it would be more easily digestible if it was at UD vs home to JMU. UD losing to JMU at JMU would probably more easily accepted.

Nova cannot and will not lose to JMU on Oct 23 at home. While the victory down in H-Burg was nice last year, there's some unfinished business that still needs to be resolved on the Main line. Regardless of how many injuries or how thin and depleted Nova will be by the 23rd, JMU needs to be dismembered limb from limb as retribution for that Hail Mary play of two years ago. Then, the world will rotate correctly again.

Retribution?? Really? Just cover the play next time and it won't happen. Heck, in that game nova blew coverage on two other TD's as well so there was plenty of inward blame to go around - I mean, who in the secondary didn't blow a TD that game?

[mcveyrl]

Retribution?? Really? Just cover the play next time and it won't happen. Heck, in that game nova blew coverage on two other TD's as well so there was plenty of inward blame to go around - I mean, who in the secondary didn't blow a TD that game?

Yea, I seem to remember a Fourth and 17 conversion for a touchdown (where Rodney Landers faked a run, no less)...which was identical to a play we ran against App earlier in the year.

[NovaWildcat]

The Hail Mary wasn't blown coverage. It was a fluke bounce that went off a player's helmet right into JMU hands. Can't do much about that - the players were defended. Unlucky bounce. Might have had other chances to prevent TD's earlier in the game, but the fact of the matter is that we still should've won if it wasn't for that bounce. Heartbreaking loss.

Yes, GannonFan, that's called RETRIBUTION. Similar to what your boys should be looking to do to us after getting smacked around the last couple of years.

This year's JMU game is homecoming as well. Should be a good crowd. Can't wait.

[jstclmet]

Retribution?? Really? Just cover the play next time and it won't happen. Heck, in that game nova blew coverage on two other TD's as well so there was plenty of inward blame to go around - I mean, who in the secondary didn't blow a TD that game?

Trust me son, your time with Nova will come soon enough, Nov 20 will be here in the flick of an eye, hopefully, you'll be able to attend as these two circle each other at the Tub. Been a long time since UD came out on the Victory side. Will this be their year??

[VUCats02]

I certainly don't see nova going 8-0 in the CAA. Remember, everyone Nova faces will probably be playing harder and will probably be more focused than playing other teams since we're the defending champs. I can definitely see Nova going 6-2 in the CAA (Nova would have had two losses last year as well if it wasn't for a 20-30 something yard field goal that richmond missed at the end of the game). The CAA is WAY too tough to go 8-0, and if you go 7-1, most likely you had a really lucky win that you shouldn't have won.