2021 Fall Playoffs Round 1: UT Martin @ Missouri State

Game kicks off at 3PM CT on 11/27. Winner goes to #8 Montana State.

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/...982a7dfe_z.jpg

Who ya got?

Haven't watched UT-Martin so just going with the Valley team. Bears are a handful offensively for any defense.

Hope the Bears come out strong and represent the MVFC well.

This would be one of the bigger upsets of the first round if UT-Martin pulled it off. Hopefully, Missouri State uses being robbed of a national seed as motivation and not feeling disappointed.

I'll be there to watch my first in-person FCS playoff game.

Bears come out with a chip on their shoulder for being snubbed a seeded place at the Bye Week table. Stats look even but against different levels of competition. MoSt bears by 14 over UT Martin.

We were probably 1 win shy of being seeded (though I think we still should've been) but I'll be damned if this isn't the most I've ever been excited for a Bears game!!!

This could be a 30 point blowout.

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Originally Posted by POD Knows

This could be a 30 point blowout.

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Or more

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Originally Posted by MSUDuo

We were probably 1 win shy of being seeded (though I think we still should've been) but I'll be damned if this isn't the most I've ever been excited for a Bears game!!!

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After such a long drought and how this program has languished....I hope you guys roll!!

xthumbsupx

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Originally Posted by POD Knows

This could be a 30 point blowout.

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xnodx

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Originally Posted by Katfan

Or more

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oh no

Rev Jim Jones is in the house and the Kool aid is flowing early

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Originally Posted by Bison Fan in NW MN

After such a long drought and how this program has languished....I hope you guys roll!!

xthumbsupx

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xnodx

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I wish the price point on the tickets was lower so that we could pack Plaster full but I won't be missing this for anything!

This should be a landslide for the Bears. But I've seen the Bears lose games they shouldn't and I've seen UT-Martin win games they shouldn't. Jason Simpson does an excellent job out there with fewer resources than just about anyone and I suspect he'll have the team ready to play.

So this game should be all Bears but a closer than expected game wouldn't surprise me.

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Originally Posted by MSUDuo

We were probably 1 win shy of being seeded (though I think we still should've been) but I'll be damned if this isn't the most I've ever been excited for a Bears game!!!

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Dude make me a liar and blow up the score board!

I’m just hoping for a competitive game and for all those kids to have fun.


and for Missouri State to win by 70.

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Originally Posted by Bearvision

This would be one of the bigger upsets of the first round if UT-Martin pulled it off. Hopefully, Missouri State uses being robbed of a national seed as motivation and not feeling disappointed.

I'll be there to watch my first in-person FCS playoff game.

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You weren't robbed. Many other years you would've gotten a seed but this was an unusually tough year to get a seed.

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Originally Posted by POD Knows

This will be a 30 point blowout.

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FIFY

Missouri State is probably the best team playing this week (they should've been a seed), and UTM is just a good-but-not-great team with 0 notable wins. The Bears should win pretty easy.

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Originally Posted by mvemjsunpx

Missouri State is probably the best team playing this week (they should've been a seed), and UTM is just a good-but-not-great team with 0 notable wins. The Bears should win pretty easy.

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Teams that lose to Youngstown State don't deserve seeds.

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Originally Posted by JSUSoutherner

Teams that lose to Youngstown State don't deserve seeds.

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Because seeds are solely based on a single game...

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Originally Posted by MSUDuo

I wish the price point on the tickets was lower so that we could pack Plaster full but I won't be missing this for anything!

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I believe there is an NCAA rule that schools cannot charge lower for the playoffs than they do for their cheapest regular season game since the NCAA gets 75% of the net gate receipts for playoff games. I believe it's for this reason that NDSU still has one regular season home game each year where tickets prices are ~$30 for endzone and ~$40 for sidelines when all the rest of the games are at least $10 per ticket more than that now.

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Originally Posted by Professor Chaos

I believe there is an NCAA rule that schools cannot charge lower for the playoffs than they do for their cheapest regular season game since the NCAA gets 75% of the net gate receipts for playoff games. I believe it's for this reason that NDSU still has one regular season home game each year where tickets prices are ~$30 for endzone and ~$40 for sidelines when all the rest of the games are at least $10 per ticket more than that now.

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Well, we had $3 tickets against UNI so there was no worry of going lower.

I'm afraid $20 is going to be steep for the casual fan in Springfield

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Originally Posted by MSUDuo

Well, we had $3 tickets against UNI so there was no worry of going lower.

I'm afraid $20 is going to be steep for the casual fan in Springfield

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Was that $3 face value though? I don't think promotions count. SDSU was giving away 4 tickets for free to the UND game last Saturday to anyone that had bought tickets for previous games but I don't think the NCAA would let them do that in the playoffs. :)

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Originally Posted by Professor Chaos

I believe there is an NCAA rule that schools cannot charge lower for the playoffs than they do for their cheapest regular season game since the NCAA gets 75% of the net gate receipts for playoff games. I believe it's for this reason that NDSU still has one regular season home game each year where tickets prices are ~$30 for endzone and ~$40 for sidelines when all the rest of the games are at least $10 per ticket more than that now.

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It's amazing the NCAA gets away with the current bidding/hosting process for the playoffs. Never really paid attention before, but I can see how it would be easy for the process to really screw over schools that actually want to host.

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Originally Posted by MSUWineGuy

It's amazing the NCAA gets away with the current bidding/hosting process for the playoffs. Never really paid attention before, but I can see how it would be easy for the process to really screw over schools that actually want to host.

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I'm confused by what you mean about screwing over a school that actually wants to host? If a school wants to host, they only have to put in a big bid. The schools that get screwed are the ones that should be the home team if the entire field was seeded, but have to travel because they were paired with a team that draws well. Montana State, for example, could be one of the last teams to make the playoff but they would then HOST a better team, because few teams in FCS can outdraw/outbid them.

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Originally Posted by MSUBobcat

I'm confused by what you mean about screwing over a school that actually wants to host? If a school wants to host, they only have to put in a big bid. The schools that get screwed are the ones that should be the home team if the entire field was seeded, but have to travel because they were paired with a team that draws well. Montana State, for example, could be one of the last teams to make the playoff but they would then HOST a better team, because few teams in FCS can outdraw/outbid them.

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Not sure what's confusing. NCAA doesn't need that ticket revenue and 75% is a huge chunk of any profits. The whole system is weird, the better team should always get to host and the bidding system is archaic.

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Originally Posted by MSUWineGuy

Not sure what's confusing. NCAA doesn't need that ticket revenue and 75% is a huge chunk of any profits. The whole system is weird, the better team should always get to host and the bidding system is archaic.

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Yeah, it's not ideal but it controls costs and the FCS playoffs lose the NCAA money as is most years I believe. The NCAA doesn't take 75% of the ticket revenue straight up though, they either take the bid amount or 75% of the net (revenue minus the host school's expenses) so unless schools are overbidding they should still make some money hosting playoff games.

Missouri St opens as 16.5 point favorites on 5dimes. O/U of 59.5.

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Originally Posted by MSUWineGuy

Not sure what's confusing. NCAA doesn't need that ticket revenue and 75% is a huge chunk of any profits. The whole system is weird, the better team should always get to host and the bidding system is archaic.

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What was confusing was you said they could screw over a team that "actually want(s)" to host. What you meant was the system in place screws over a team that "earned the right" to host by play on the field. Two wholly different arguments and no one disagrees. We'd all love to seed the field and play as it falls out (with minor adjustment to avoid conference rematches, i.e. if 9 vs 24 is a conference rematch, swap in #23 instead).

As for the 75% ticket revenue... someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that even with the NCAA taking 75% of ticket revenue, they still lose money on the FCS playoffs as a whole most years. In 2019, total announced attendance (per box scores) was 28,787... for ALL 8 games. And over a quarter was from a single game (Nicholls vs. UND, 7,569). 28,787 x 75% x $20 ave. ticket price (MSUDuo mentioned that even $20 is too steep for a casual fan Springfield so I used that) is $431,805. I don't know what the net revenue for broadcasting the game is, but the ticket revenue doesn't go very far toward paying the travel costs of the 8 visiting teams.

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Originally Posted by Professor Chaos

Yeah, it's not ideal but it controls costs and the FCS playoffs lose the NCAA money as is most years I believe. The NCAA doesn't take 75% of the ticket revenue straight up though, they either take the bid amount or 75% of the net (revenue minus the host school's expenses) so unless schools are overbidding they should still make some money hosting playoff games.

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Ohhh, okay, that makes more sense. I thought you had to pay 75% AND whatever you bid.

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Originally Posted by MSUBobcat

What was confusing was you said they could screw over a team that "actually want(s)" to host. What you meant was the system in place screws over a team that "earned the right" to host by play on the field. Two wholly different arguments and no one disagrees. We'd all love to seed the field and play as it falls out (with minor adjustment to avoid conference rematches, i.e. if 1 vs 24 is a conference rematch, swap in #23 instead).

As for the 75% ticket revenue... someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that even with the NCAA taking 75% of ticket revenue, they still lose money on the FCS playoffs as a whole most years. In 2019, total announced attendance (per box scores) was 28,787... for ALL 8 games. And over a quarter was from a single game (Nicholls vs. UND, 7,569). 28,787 x 75% x $20 ave. ticket price (MSUDuo mentioned that even $20 is too steep for a casual fan Springfield so I used that) is $431,805. I don't know what the net revenue for broadcasting the game is, but the ticket revenue doesn't go very far toward paying the travel costs of the 8 visiting teams.

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The NCAA's cut is probably less than that because they take 75% of the net rather than the gross so the host schools take out their expenses before they divvy up the pie. The value of these games to the media partner (ESPN) is what really isn't known. The FCS playoffs go into the same TV contract as a boatload of other NCAA championships. I believe the latest contract was signed back in 2011 and was for 12 years and $500M (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-e...7BE2FM20111215). How much of that $40M+ annually can be attributed to the FCS playoffs? I don't know but I'd bet it's not insignificant since ESPN does give the FCS playoffs 5 spots on their national networks each year... it would be interesting to see what the deal would be if the NCAA ever bid out the TV contract for just the FCS playoffs.

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Originally Posted by MSUWineGuy

Ohhh, okay, that makes more sense. I thought you had to pay 75% AND whatever you bid.

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Nope, it's whatever the higher number is between those two amounts.

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Originally Posted by Professor Chaos

The NCAA's cut is probably less than that because they take 75% of the net rather than the gross so the host schools take out their expenses before they divvy up the pie. The value of these games to the media partner (ESPN) is what really isn't known. The FCS playoffs go into the same TV contract as a boatload of other NCAA championships. I believe the latest contract was signed back in 2011 and was for 12 years and $500M (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-e...7BE2FM20111215). How much of that $40M+ annually can be attributed to the FCS playoffs? I don't know but I'd bet it's not insignificant since ESPN does give the FCS playoffs 5 spots on their national networks each year... it would be interesting to see what the deal would be if the NCAA ever bid out the TV contract for just the FCS playoffs.


Nope, it's whatever the higher number is between those two amounts.

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Good catch. I forgot that it's net and not gross. Even without knowing the media revenue, it's highly likely the NCAA was well in the red after the first round of the 2019 playoffs.

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Originally Posted by Professor Chaos

Missouri St opens as 16.5 point favorites on 5dimes. O/U of 59.5.

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That seems...aggressive.

Mo state gets it in gear this will be a blow out.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

The UTM coach let out in an interview that their stud quarterback is likely still out for this week. Watching some of the film, he looks like a really really good player.

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Originally Posted by MSUWineGuy

The UTM coach lead out in an interview that their stud quarterback is likely still out for this week. Watching some of the film, he looks like a really really good player.

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oh man, I was just getting read to say many are seriously underestimating UT Martin

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Originally Posted by MSUWineGuy

The UTM coach let out in an interview that their stud quarterback is likely still out for this week. Watching some of the film, he looks like a really really good player.

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Seems like the kind of thing you'd play closer to the vest. Makes me think it's a misdirection.

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Originally Posted by MSUBobcat

Seems like the kind of thing you'd play closer to the vest. Makes me think it's a misdirection.

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We can’t find a beat writer for them but our beat reached out to the school and the school said he was day to day then a couple hours later came that interview. Petrino said they are preparing as if he will play.

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Originally Posted by MSUBobcat

What was confusing was you said they could screw over a team that "actually want(s)" to host. What you meant was the system in place screws over a team that "earned the right" to host by play on the field. Two wholly different arguments and no one disagrees. We'd all love to seed the field and play as it falls out (with minor adjustment to avoid conference rematches, i.e. if 9 vs 24 is a conference rematch, swap in #23 instead).

As for the 75% ticket revenue... someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that even with the NCAA taking 75% of ticket revenue, they still lose money on the FCS playoffs as a whole most years. In 2019, total announced attendance (per box scores) was 28,787... for ALL 8 games. And over a quarter was from a single game (Nicholls vs. UND, 7,569). 28,787 x 75% x $20 ave. ticket price (MSUDuo mentioned that even $20 is too steep for a casual fan Springfield so I used that) is $431,805. I don't know what the net revenue for broadcasting the game is, but the ticket revenue doesn't go very far toward paying the travel costs of the 8 visiting teams.

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That must just be for the first round (since there are 8 games in the first round)? We hosted 2 games and I'm sure our attendance was well over 7,500 as well as Montana, NDSU, JMU who all hosted multiple games after the first round. Not that it changes your conclusion.

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Originally Posted by ysubigred

Mo state gets it in gear this will be a blow out.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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This here.

I was so worried that most of the first round games sold out or had huge crowds, at the chance that MSU doesn't draw great this week until I looked at the 2019 crowds...Why are they so small??

Home Team	Attendance
Nichols vs ND	7,569
SELSU vs Nova	4,173
UNI vs San Diego	3,743
Austin Peay vs Furman	3,559
SEMO vs ILST	3,274
Holy Cross vs Monmouth	2,817
Wofford vs Kennesaw	1,992
Albany vs Cconn	1,660

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Originally Posted by MSUWineGuy

I was so worried that most of the first round games sold out or had huge crowds, at the chance that MSU doesn't draw great this week until I looked at the 2019 crowds...Why are they so small??

Home Team	Attendance
Nichols vs ND	7,569
SELSU vs Nova	4,173
UNI vs San Diego	3,743
Austin Peay vs Furman	3,559
SEMO vs ILST	3,274
Holy Cross vs Monmouth	2,817
Wofford vs Kennesaw	1,992
Albany vs Cconn	1,660

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Crowds are always super small this weekend and generally smaller in the playoffs overall. There's several reasons; holiday weekend (many people already have alternate plans), no students on campus, only a week (and a holiday week at that) to sell tickets, and because the NCAA gets 75% of the net gate schools all of a sudden get a lot more conservative about who is counted for official attendance (bands, cheer teams, other school personnel, etc are not counted and there are no ticket promos). If you can draw 50% of your regular season average this weekend you're doing well. 75% or above is outstanding.