Re: 2017 (Too Early) SoCon Football Predictions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
FUBeAR
So...just for fun, I will opine on my-oh-so-humble opinion of the PLAYER talent level in the SoCon (roughly) over the past 2 years...
1) Samford
1) Chattanooga
3) CIT
4) Woffy
5) WCU
6) Furman
7) Mercer
8) VMI
9) ETSU
...and here are those Teams' average order of finish over those 2 years (excuse me Bucs fans for ranking ETSU 9th in 2015, but I can't put them anywhere else for the purpose of this exercise)...
CIT 1+1 = 2/2 = 1
Chatt 1+2 = 3/2 = 1.5
Woffy 4+2 = 6/2 = 3
Sammy 4+4 = 8/2 = 4
WCU 3+8 = 11/2 = 5.5
Mercer 6+5 = 11/2 = 5.5
Furman 6+6 = 12/2 = 6
VMI 8+8 = 16/2 = 8
ETSU 9+7 = 16/2 = 8
...then, we can determine a delta between MOSHO of their Talent Level and their Avg. Finish and, in theory, derive a Coaching Factor Ranking...
1) CIT 1+1 = 2/2 = 1-3 = -2
2) ETSU 9+7 = 16/2 = 8-9 = -1
3) Woffy 4+2 = 6/2 = 3-3 = 0
4) Mercer 6+5 = 11/2 = 5.5-5.5 = 0
5) Furman 6+6 = 12/2 = 6-6 = 0
6) VMI 8+8 = 16/2 = 8-8 = 0
7) Chatt 1+2 = 3/2 = 1.5-1 = 0.5
8) WCU 3+8 = 11/2 = 5.5-5 = 0.5
9) Sammy 4+4 = 8/2 = 4-1 = 3
...and, if you don't dispute my Talent Ranking, then I would contend that the rankings immediately above accurately reflect the Coaching Jobs done by each of the Staffs. The math is a bit quirky as a negative number indicates Results (ostensibly due to Coaching over-performance) outperformed Talent, 0 indicates Results were equal to or expected based upon Talent Level, and a positive number indicates Talent was better than the results actually realized (ostensibly due to Coaching under-performance). Despite the quirky math, the magnitude of the over or under performance, ostensibly due to Coaching is reflected in the magnitude of the number greater than or less than zero.
Hate to see CIT on top (in ANYTHING), but there is no denying the outstanding job those 2 Coaching Staffs have done down there the past 2 years. And...on the other end of the spectrum...well, y'all can read...I don't need to spell it out any further.
FWIW, and to attempt to deflect what I expect to be PaladinFan's (usual) heavy critique of my analyses...I had absolutely no idea how this analysis would turn out when I started thinking about it. I did it all in a 'quick reply,' thought through my honest talent assessment, Wikipedia'd the standings data, and used what I believe to be a relatively fair way to analyze this data. I'm not surprised at the results, but I did not structure my analysis to fit a 'narrative' that I wanted it to fit. HONESTLY!
I agree with everything accept the initial assessment. Samford did not have the most talent. They had the best recruiting years the past two years. I would initially rate Samford at Number 8 out of 9 on Talent both years. This year all those kids enter to begin playing and starting.
Re: 2017 (Too Early) SoCon Football Predictions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
vestaviadude
I agree with everything accept the initial assessment. Samford did not have the most talent. They had the best recruiting years the past two years. I would initially rate Samford at Number 8 out of 9 on Talent both years.
So you recruit worse than two military schools?
Re: 2017 (Too Early) SoCon Football Predictions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
vestaviadude
I agree with everything accept the initial assessment. Samford did not have the most talent. They had the best recruiting years the past two years. I would initially rate Samford at Number 8 out of 9 on Talent both years. This year all those kids enter to begin playing and starting.
I mostly agree.
2015 - 7 out of 9 in 2015.
2016 - 6 out of 9 last year because so many were red-shirting, learning or out hurt.
2017 - 1st, 2nd or 3rd out of nine, but young.
Hard to tell with so many leaving the former 1st and 2nd place schools exactly where they land this year. No less than 3rd.
Re: 2017 (Too Early) SoCon Football Predictions
I do not know the answer, but I do NOT feel that our performance has been up to our level of talent the past few years. I am as loyal a fan(and alumnus) as Samford has, having followed Samford Football since 1960. I'm not meaning to be negative, but we desperately need to have a BIG SoCon run. There is just too much truth in pointing out our late season slumps, and I cannot disagree that this has been a concern. My questions are: will we finally get a running game, and be able to convert some of those 3rd down/short? Will our defense be improved enough to stop giving up way too much total offense? Will the play on the field be representative of the talent on paper?
Samford AGAIN will have incredible talent, and that is a fact. Should we be in contention for the conference crown? IMO, we definitely should.
I would like to be as optimistic as some of the SU posters on here, but I will wait to see spring training and hope that it all comes together this season. To have another 1991 year would do a lots for this old Bulldog. Hey, that was a LONG time ago, but hey, it could happen.
GO DOGS!!!!!
Re: 2017 (Too Early) SoCon Football Predictions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
youcanbankit
Who is the top coach in the SoCon if not Hatcher?
My money would go with Mercer's Lamb or Wofford's Ayers.
I'd say Hatcher is about middle of the pack.
Re: 2017 (Too Early) SoCon Football Predictions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
youcanbankit
2015 - 7 out of 9 in 2015.
2016 - 6 out of 9 last year
Quote:
Originally Posted by
vestaviadude
I would initially rate Samford at Number 8 out of 9 on Talent both years.
PREPOSTEROUS!
8 out of 9??? - Mercer's Players were mostly walk-ons and a start-up program. ETSU was a start-up program and it's fairly clear that VMI's overall talent level (while rising) has been subpar for many years. Furman's talent has also been down and WCU's O & D fronts have not been particularly strong (even in 2015). So, there's really no way you can even seriously argue that Sammy's talent level has been anything less than 4th...and that's before you consider the number of FBS Transfers, NFL Players/Prospects, and the many Pre- & Post-Season Offensive and Defensive POY's and All-Conference selections Sammy has had. My goodness, they even had a Long Snapper who was so good that he made All-SoCon as an O-Lineman even though he didn't PLAY O-Line!
Chatt is the ONLY Team that any reasonable, objective (or sane) person would even try to argue has had better talent than Sammy in the SoCon the past 2 years. So, OK...let's 'say' we put them at #2 in Talent behind Chatt, that still rates them at a 2.0 and in a distant 9th place in my Coaching Factor Ranking analysis.
Re: 2017 (Too Early) SoCon Football Predictions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
FUBeAR
PREPOSTEROUS!
8 out of 9??? - Mercer's Players were mostly walk-ons and a start-up program. ETSU was a start-up program and it's fairly clear that VMI's overall talent level (while rising) has been subpar for many years. Furman's talent has also been down and WCU's O & D fronts have not been particularly strong (even in 2015). So, there's really no way you can even seriously argue that Sammy's talent level has been anything less than 4th...and that's before you consider the number of FBS Transfers, NFL Players/Prospects, and the many Pre- & Post-Season Offensive and Defensive POY's and All-Conference selections Sammy has had. My goodness, they even had a Long Snapper who was so good that he made All-SoCon as an O-Lineman even though he didn't PLAY O-Line!
Chatt is the ONLY Team that any reasonable, objective (or sane) person would even try to argue has had better talent than Sammy in the SoCon the past 2 years. So, OK...let's 'say' we put them at #2 in Talent behind Chatt, that still rates them at a 2.0 and in a distant 9th place in my Coaching Factor Ranking analysis.
Did you get that analysis from Chattown?
Re: 2017 (Too Early) SoCon Football Predictions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
FUBeAR
So...just for fun, I will opine on my-oh-so-humble opinion of the PLAYER talent level in the SoCon (roughly) over the past 2 years...
1) Samford
1) Chattanooga
3) CIT
4) Woffy
5) WCU
6) Furman
7) Mercer
8) VMI
9) ETSU
...and here are those Teams' average order of finish over those 2 years (excuse me Bucs fans for ranking ETSU 9th in 2015, but I can't put them anywhere else for the purpose of this exercise)...
CIT 1+1 = 2/2 = 1
Chatt 1+2 = 3/2 = 1.5
Woffy 4+2 = 6/2 = 3
Sammy 4+4 = 8/2 = 4
WCU 3+8 = 11/2 = 5.5
Mercer 6+5 = 11/2 = 5.5
Furman 6+6 = 12/2 = 6
VMI 8+8 = 16/2 = 8
ETSU 9+7 = 16/2 = 8
...then, we can determine a delta between MOSHO of their Talent Level and their Avg. Finish and, in theory, derive a Coaching Factor Ranking...
1) CIT 1+1 = 2/2 = 1-3 = -2
2) ETSU 9+7 = 16/2 = 8-9 = -1
3) Woffy 4+2 = 6/2 = 3-3 = 0
4) Mercer 6+5 = 11/2 = 5.5-5.5 = 0
5) Furman 6+6 = 12/2 = 6-6 = 0
6) VMI 8+8 = 16/2 = 8-8 = 0
7) Chatt 1+2 = 3/2 = 1.5-1 = 0.5
8) WCU 3+8 = 11/2 = 5.5-5 = 0.5
9) Sammy 4+4 = 8/2 = 4-1 = 3
...and, if you don't dispute my Talent Ranking, then I would contend that the rankings immediately above accurately reflect the Coaching Jobs done by each of the Staffs. The math is a bit quirky as a negative number indicates Results (ostensibly due to Coaching over-performance) outperformed Talent, 0 indicates Results were equal to or expected based upon Talent Level, and a positive number indicates Talent was better than the results actually realized (ostensibly due to Coaching under-performance). Despite the quirky math, the magnitude of the over or under performance, ostensibly due to Coaching is reflected in the magnitude of the number greater than or less than zero.
Hate to see CIT on top (in ANYTHING), but there is no denying the outstanding job those 2 Coaching Staffs have done down there the past 2 years. And...on the other end of the spectrum...well, y'all can read...I don't need to spell it out any further.
FWIW, and to attempt to deflect what I expect to be PaladinFan's (usual) heavy critique of my analyses...I had absolutely no idea how this analysis would turn out when I started thinking about it. I did it all in a 'quick reply,' thought through my honest talent assessment, Wikipedia'd the standings data, and used what I believe to be a relatively fair way to analyze this data. I'm not surprised at the results, but I did not structure my analysis to fit a 'narrative' that I wanted it to fit. HONESTLY!
As I said, I did this in a 'Quick Reply'...so I noticed a couple of math errors in my final calculation of Woffy's & Mercer's Coach Factor Rating. I've corrected (I think) below...As I look at this now, I think it looks about how I feel subjectively with the exception that I think VMI's Coaching Staff may have performed a bit better than is reflected by this Ranking.
1) CIT 1+1 = 2/2 = 1-3 = -2
2) Mercer 6+5 = 11/2 = 5.5-7 = -1.5
3) Woffy 4+2 = 6/2 = 3-4 = -1
4) ETSU 9+7 = 16/2 = 8-9 = -1
5) Furman 6+6 = 12/2 = 6-6 = 0
6) VMI 8+8 = 16/2 = 8-8 = 0
7) Chatt 1+2 = 3/2 = 1.5-1 = 0.5
8) WCU 3+8 = 11/2 = 5.5-5 = 0.5
9) Sammy 4+4 = 8/2 = 4-1 = 3
Re: 2017 (Too Early) SoCon Football Predictions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
The Cats
My money would go with Mercer's Lamb or Wofford's Ayers.
I'd say Hatcher is about middle of the pack.
It's Mike Ayers and it has been for 15 years. HANDS DOWN. NOT EVEN CLOSE. Even when Jerry Moore was at App.
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Re: 2017 (Too Early) SoCon Football Predictions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
citdog
It's Mike Ayers and it has been for 15 years. HANDS DOWN. NOT EVEN CLOSE. Even when Jerry Moore was at App.
no, no. no...
No disrespect to Mike Ayers, or you Citdog, but NO WAY! His lifetime winning percentage is 56.8%. His Wofford winning percentage 60.5% and SoCon winning percentage 59.8%. What are you talking about? That's an average 5-6 wins a year with 4-5 losses. Does 5-5 or 6-4 sound like a beast coach? I love the guy personally, but he is not the best coach in the SoCon hands down. The numbers dont match. The Citadel, Furman or UTC may have the best coach in the Conference. Time will tell. But for now....No.
I dont know why folks are so critical of Hatcher. His stats are his stats. Irregardless. I know the Samford administration understand this, and fans of the Bulldogs, though injured and hurt from previous years of disappointment, understand this program is on the rise. Its not all Hatcher, key coaches around him, program investment, Great AD at the school, the Samford Administrations support, all are assisting in the success so far. Some coaches listed below probably did not have that their first two years. Check this out...
Current/Recent SoCon Coaches Records (with at least 2 years as a head coach in the SoCon) - first 2 seasons at their current SoCon school
Wofford - Mike Ayers first 2 years in the SoCon 7-14. (33%)
UTC - Russ Huesman first 2 years in the SoCon 12-10 (55%)
Citadel - Mike Houston first 2 years in the SoCon 14-11 (56%)
Furman - Bruce Fowler first 2 years in the SoCon 9-13 (41%)
VMI - Scott Wachenheim first 2 years in the SoCon 5-17 (23%)
Mercer - Bobby Lamb (first 2 years at current position - Mercer) 11-12 (48%)
Western Carolina - Mark Speir first 2 years in the SoCon 3-20 (13%)
ETSU - Carl Torbush first 2 years in the SoCon7-15 (32%)
Samford - Chris Hatcher first 2 years in the SoCon 13-10. (57%)
*Note - Samford - Pat Sullivan, His predecessor at Samford was 10-12 (45%) in his first 2 seasons in the SoCon.*
Best in the SoCon....through the first two years. You dont have to like it, but those are the numbers. Some of those coaches did not have SEC/ACC opponents their first two years either. Why this is such an issue, is actually comical and funny. xnodx Like Gene Wilder Funny....
http://www.anygivensaturday.com/atta...id=24732&stc=1