MONTH-TO-GO PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS...TEAMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES TO BE PLAYOFF BOUND
With only a month left in the regular season, I wanted to check out which teams could possibly be playoff bound. Even though a few posters aren't crazy about the GPI, I used it as a gauge to get a group of teams that have a shot to be playing in postseason. Then I went to the mega-poll site which lists all 122 I-AA teams and gives their complete schedules.
I got a list of 25 playoff calibur teams and looked up the rest of each team's remaining games, then I projected out each team's final regular season record (much is debatable). After predicting each team's record, I went back and looked at how many QUALITY wins each team has earned. Considered a win against any team listed in the GPI top 40 to be a quality win. The top 40 GPI would be the upper third of I-AA football, so that's pretty reasonable.
Going to do this again in a couple of weeks to see how things have changed, and I'm SURE they will change, so it'll be interesting.
Listed below are teams that CURRENTLY have chances to be playoff bound. First it's the team, then their projected record, followed by the predicted number of quality wins (QW) against the current GPI top 40. Also listed each quality win with the corresponding current GPI rank.
Sooooooo....here goes:
top 4 playoff seeds
U Mass (9-2) 5 QW: UNH(9), Maine(11), Northeastern(22),
Townson(23), Villanova(40) also 1pt loss to I-A
Navy
Montana (10-1) 5: Portland St(10), Cal-Poly(13), MSU(20),
SDSU(24), NAU (29)
Appy St. (10-1) 4: JMU(6), Furman(17), Wofford(33), GSU(37)
Illinois St. (9-2) 5: YSU(8), SIU(19), WKU(26), UCA(27), EIU(28)
also 1 pt loss to I-A Kansas St.
4 other autos
UT-Martin(10-1) 1: EIU(28)
Hampton (10-1) 0: best win...Grambling(57)
Holy Cross(9-2) 0: best win...Lehigh(41)
SamHouston(8-3) 0: best win...NW Lou(61)
decent chance auto bids
UNH (8-3) 4: Mass(1), Richmond(16), I-A Northwestern,
Delaware(30)
Richmond(9-2) 5: JMU(6), Northeastern(22), Townson(23),
Villanova(40), I-A Duke
JamesMad(9-2) 4: UNH(9), Northeastern(22), Townson(23),
Delaware(30)
UNI (8-3) 4: Illinois St(4), YSU(9), SDSU(24), WKU(26),
also 1 pt. loss to I-A Iowa St.
YSU (8-3) 4: Maine(11), UC-Davis(15), SIU(19), WKU(26)
Maine (8-3) 4: UNH(9), Northeastern(22), Townson(23),
Villanova(40)
bubble teams with the best shot
Furman (8-3) 2: Wofford(33), GSU(37)
SIU (8-3) 2: UNI(7), I-A Indiana
Coastal C(9-2) 2: Furman(17), Wofford(33)
other bubble teams...who knows?
Delaware (7-4) 3: Richmond(16), Townson(23), Villanova(40)
Portland St(7-4) 2: I-A New Mexico, EWU(38)
Cal-Poly (7-4) 1: UC-Davis(15)
Mont St (7-4) 3: Portland St(10), NAU(29), I-A Colorado
Del St. (9-2) 0: best win...SC St(49)
SanDiego(10-1) 1: Yale(24)
EIU (8-4) 0: best win...Jacksonville St(45)
Chuck S (10-1) 0: best win...Gard-Webb(43)
Sooooooo....hope I got all those numbers right...WHEH!!! Also like I said the above records are just how I see things falling. And the GPI will constantly be changing, so some teams will lose or gain quality wins depending on how things go.
Alright....KNOW this is a long post, but thougt I'd put it together. Want to do another one of these in a couple weeks to narrow down the field. COOL! :thumbsup:
