OVC cluster******

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Tennessee Tech 6-3 (5-2)
Jacksonville State 6-4 (5-2)
Eastern Kentucky 6-4 (5-2)

If Tennessee Tech wins, they are OVC champs
If they lose and Eastern Kentucky wins, they are OVC champs
If Tennessee Tech loses, Eastern Kentucky loses, and Jacksonville State wins, they are OVC champs

If Tennessee Tech, Eastern Kentucky, and Jacksonville State all lose...

and Murray State wins...

you would have a FIVE WAY TIE for the championship with 5-3 records.

Good luck figuring out the autobid winner then xeekx

[TTUEagles]

TTU hosts 3-7 APSU Saturday, EKU hosts UT-Martin and Jacksonville State goes to T.ehShoo...I'd say (arrogantly) that TTU has the advantage.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

TTU hosts 3-7 APSU Saturday, EKU host UT-Martin and Jacksonville State goes to TeShoo...I'd say (arrogantly) that TTU has the advantage.

Agreed! Just win, and don't have me blow the dust off the OVC tiebreak scenarios! xlolx

[TTUEagles]

Do you know how long it's been since a game in November mattered to TTU, much less the last game of the season? (Don't answer that). Biggest game in TTU history is Nov. 19th...

[Redhawk2010]

Do you know how long it's been since a game in November mattered to TTU, much less the last game of the season? (Don't answer that). Biggest game in TTU history is Nov. 19th...

Up until last year, not as long as SEMO! ;)

[Jon Morse]

I just sorted this mess out, so now I have a headache.

If Tennessee Tech beats Austin Peay, Tennessee Tech will claim the autobid. However, if they lose...

If Eastern Kentucky beats Tennessee-Martin, Eastern Kentucky will claim the autobid. If they lose too...

If Jacksonville State beats Tennessee State, Jacksonville State will claim the autobid. If they manage to lose, too...

We have a five-way tie (or six, if Murray State wins, which is highly likely).

In a five-way tie, Tennessee Tech and Tennessee State would both be 3-1 against the field; Tennessee State beat Tennessee Tech, so Tennessee State gets the autobid.

In a six-way tie, TTU, TSU, and EKU would each be 3-2 against the field, and 1-1 against each other. The tiebreakers would then have to be applied to Jax, UTM, and Murray to figure out who's in 4th, 5th, and 6th place in order to compare the results for the other three one step at a time. Jax beat both Murray and UTM, so Jax gets fourth place... but TTU, TSU, and ESU all beat Jax, so that gets us nowhere. Next step: Murray beat UTM, so Murray gets fifth place; Murray beat EKU, removing EKU from the tiebreaking procedure, and leaving TSU and TTU -- again, TSU beat TTU, so TSU gets the autobid.

There, now you have a headache.

[T-Dog]

Do you know how long it's been since a game in November mattered to TTU, much less the last game of the season? (Don't answer that). Biggest game in TTU history is Nov. 19th...

I'm rooting for you partially because your sig needs an update. xnodx

[MTfan4life]

you would have a FIVE WAY TIE for the championship with 5-3 records.



Wouldn't it be a Six-Way Tie considering Tennessee State would be beating Jacksonville State for that to happen. TSU also has 3 conference losses, or are they not eligible?

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

TTU hosts 3-7 APSU Saturday, EKU hosts UT-Martin and Jacksonville State goes to T.ehShoo...I'd say (arrogantly) that TTU has the advantage.

You guys like Urbano? Wonder if there's any chance he'll get a chance to play against his former team in the playoffs.

[TTUEagles]

You guys like Urbano? Wonder if there's any chance he'll get a chance to play against his former team in the playoffs.

So far, they (we, I) Love him. He's only played in 5 games, though. Has had 3 runs of over 50 yards in the past 3 games. He ran for 17 yards on the first play from scrimmage against Iowa and hurt his ankle. Really hasn't been "full-strength" except for the last 2 games. TTU goes 4 deep at RB and has a better "power back" but, Urbano is the change of pace, speed back, if you want to call it that.

5 games, 59 carries for 410 yards; 7 receptions for 88 yards...

[tingly]

I can't find the current rules, but in 2008 for the 6-way tie, OVC would have done a head-to-head against the group of jax/utm/murray instead of breaking them up.

[blueballs]

So far, they (we, I) Love him. He's only played in 5 games, though. Has had 3 runs of over 50 yards in the past 3 games. He ran for 17 yards on the first play from scrimmage against Iowa and hurt his ankle. Really hasn't been "full-strength" except for the last 2 games. TTU goes 4 deep at RB and has a better "power back" but, Urbano is the change of pace, speed back, if you want to call it that.

5 games, 59 carries for 410 yards; 7 receptions for 88 yards...

Same song second verse...

That was exactly the case at GSU, great potential and tantalizing (limited) production but couldn't stay healthy.

[Jon Morse]

I can't find the current rules, but in 2008 for the 6-way tie, OVC would have done a head-to-head against the group of jax/utm/murray instead of breaking them up.

Okay, my mistake (though it doesn't change anything; TTU and TSU would be 2-1 vs EKU at 1-2, eliminating EKU, etc.)

[TTUEagles]

Hopefully, TTU can keep the headaches away by doing what they are supposed to: beat 'Peay. I could see both the UTM @ EKU and Jax. St. @ TSU games going either way.

[kperk014]

I'm rooting for you partially because your sig needs an update. xnodx

xthumbsupx

[mvemjsunpx]

Okay, my mistake (though it doesn't change anything; TTU and TSU would be 2-1 vs EKU at 1-2, eliminating EKU, etc.)

Actually, TTU, TSU, & EKU are all 2-1 against the sub-tie for 4th. And the other loss for all of those teams would come to the same team (Austin Peay), so common games wouldn't resolve anything.

The 6-way tie would come down to a 3-way coin flip.


Here's each team's auto-bid hopes:

TTU - Will get it with a win. They can also win the 3-way coin flip if EKU & JSU lose (& Murray wins).
EKU - Will get it with a win & a TTU loss. They can also win the 3-way coin flip if TTU & JSU lose (& Murray wins).
JSU - Will get it with a win & losses by both TTU & EKU. They can only win it outright.
TSU - Will get it with a win over JSU & losses by TTU, EKU, & Murray. They can also win the 3-way coin flip if Murray instead wins.
Murray - Can't get it. They can get 7 DI wins, though, so they have a miracle hope for a playoff bid.
UTM - Completely dead.

[Jon Morse]

Gah, you're right. I read the wrong column after the previous correction.

I need an Advil.

[Bam]

I say give it to TTU! They beat the best! EKU's tired on being the OVC's sacrificial lamb for the real conferences. Good luck on the road TTU.

[TTUEagles]

Thanks!
TTU's AD has said they have made "very aggressive & competitive bids" to host 1st & / or 2nd round playoff games. Personally, I don't care at this point, as long as we get in...

[Bam]

Good luck with the bid. It's hard to imagine ANY OVC team getting a home P O game even after the FCS watered thre tourney down.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Thanks!
TTU's AD has said they have made "very aggressive & competitive bids" to host 1st & / or 2nd round playoff games. Personally, I don't care at this point, as long as we get in...

Interesting.

Albany/Duquesne will almost certainly be on the road
Liberty/Stony Brook will make an aggressive bid
One of Maine or UNH will probably be sent on the road
YSU, ISUr, ISUb - what sort of bids will one or more of them have?

Maybe TTU is a better shot at hosting a 1st round game than I thought.

[TTUEagles]

Actually, as much as I would love to only drive an hour and a half and have a happier marriage that weekend, I kind of want a road playoff game. TTU has won all of their road games anyway. But, I used to go to MTSU home playoff games years ago where only 4-5,000 would show up even with MTSU being ranked #1 at times. I think it'd be embarrassing to only have 5,000 for your school's first-ever playoff game (stadium seats 16,500). Let's face it, TTU isn't known for being a well followed athletic program. Plus, most likely it'd be Thanksgiving weekend and most students would be gone....It's a commuter school to begin with but, student support this year has been good. Despite having an expected good team and doing well, attendance this year has been somewhat of a dissapointment to me...

[tingly]

The conference posted this on their website.


Tennessee Tech is the only team that controls its own destiny and with a home victory over Austin Peay on Saturday, the Golden Eagles would lock up the OVC's automatic bid to the FCS Playoffs. Eastern Kentucky can win the automatic bid with a victory over UT Martin and a loss by Tennessee Tech while Jacksonville State will earn the bid with a victory over Tennessee State and losses by EKU and TTU. There also remains the possibility of a five-way or six-way tie for the title. In the five-way scenario EKU, JSU, TTU and Murray State would have to lose and TSU and UTM win. If that happens the tiebreaker would come down to composite records and two teams (TSU and TTU) would break out of the tie, making a new two-way tie that would be broken by the head-to-head matchup (which TSU won). In the six-way tie EKU, JSU, TTU would have to lose and MUR, TSU and UTM would have to win. If this happens, the tiebreaker will come down to composite records against tied teams and three teams (EKU, TSU and TTU) would break out of the tie, however, all other tiebreakers would be even, meaning the league's automatic bid would go to one of those three teams and would be determined by a blind draw.

o Tennessee Tech on a win (95% chance according to Massey)
o Eastern Kentucky on a win with a loss by Tennessee Tech (3.6%)
o Jacksonville State on a win with losses by Tennessee Tech and Eastern Kentucky (0.69%)
o Tennessee State on a 5-way tie [on wins by Austin Peay, Tennessee Martin, Tennessee State, SE Missouri State] (0.14%)
o A 6-way tie [on wins by Austin Peay, Tennessee Martin, Tennessee State, Murray State] is a blind draw between Tennessee Tech, Eastern Kentucky, and Tennessee State (0.57%)
or what mvemjsunpx said

So, Massey has Tennessee Tech at 95.2% (19 in 20), Eastern Kentucky at 3.79% (1 in 26), Jacksonville State at 0.69% (1 in 145), and Tennessee State at 0.33% (1 in 300).

[tribefan40]

No dog in this fight but I would be highly intrigued by a 'blind draw'.

[tingly]

I was rooting for a 3-way coin toss to see how it'd work until I read that they'd draw. I wish the 2:30 game was the last game.
1:00 ET Tennessee Martin (28%) at Eastern Kentucky (72%)
2:00 ET Murray State (80%) at Southeast Missouri State (20%)
2:30 ET Austin Peay (5%) at Tennessee Tech (95%)
3:00 ET Jacksonville State (49%) at Tennessee State (51%)

[Golden Eagle]

Don't forget that Cookeville hosts the high school football championship games the weekend after Thanksgiving. Would they even be able to host that weekend?

[TTUEagles]

Don't forget that Cookeville hosts the high school football championship games the weekend after Thanksgiving. Would they even be able to host that weekend?

I've thought about that but, I'm sure it's "let's cross that bridge when we come to it" type of thing. I do know they've submitted bids for hosting 1st & 2nd rounds and quarterfinal games...But, let's be real here...I think the record of TTU and rating of the OVC will warrant a Thanksgiving Day weekend game and IF TTU were to win a playoff game, I doubt they would host the 2nd round. I think the odds aren't great they'd host the 1st round but, you never know.
Man, I am SO SICK of looking at my signature down there!!!!

[Redhawk2010]

I've thought about that but, I'm sure it's "let's cross that bridge when we come to it" type of thing. I do know they've submitted bids for hosting 1st & 2nd rounds and quarterfinal games...

Illinois State ran into this same problem back in 1999 I believe. They hosted the Illinois football state championships, but they got into the playoffs so I believe they ended up bumping the high school football. They moved over to the University of Illinois where they've been ever since. Now, with the B1G changing, Illinois will now play on that weekend every other year at home so I don't know what the IHSA will end up doing..

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Illinois State ran into this same problem back in 1999 I believe. They hosted the Illinois football state championships, but they got into the playoffs so I believe they ended up bumping the high school football. They moved over to the University of Illinois where they've been ever since. Now, with the B1G changing, Illinois will now play on that weekend every other year at home so I don't know what the IHSA will end up doing..

They should move it the weekend of the Big 10 Champ game. Illinois will never need to worry about any conflicts then xlolx

[bjtheflamesfan]

The B1G Championship is in Indianapolis this year and more than likely you wont see it hosted at a member institution's field

[tingly]

This got simple. Tennessee Tech gets the automatic berth with a win (95%, 19 in 20). If not, Eastern Kentucky gets it (5%, 1 in 20).