At-large cluster******

[UNH Fanboi]

Only meaningful game still in progress is UNI (7-2) vs. Southern Utah (5-4). Southern Utah is down 24-21 in the 3rd. If UNI wins, move them up to the "In" and drop Southern Utah.

In:
Montana-Montana St. loser
ODU (9-2)
Maine (8-2)

Likely in (7 D1 wins already and either likely (i) to get 8 wins or (ii) still get in with 7):
ASU (7-3) - last game vs. Elon
UNH (7-3) - would be borderline at 7-4 after loss to Maine, but Lehigh win would prob be enough to tip the scales
UNI (7-2) - see above

Good chance
Wofford (7-3 (6 D1)) - final game vs. Chatty, have pretty big win over ASU
Illinois St. (7-3) - biggest win vs. Indiana St., but can get to 8 wins and be guaranteed with win over UNI
Indiana St. (6-4) - FBS win, no bad losses, needs to take care of business vs. SIU
Youngstown St. (6-4) - just beat #1 team, easy final game vs. Missouri St.
UCA (8-3 (7 D1)) - season wrapped up, no bad losses, but no big wins
JMU (6-4) - last game vs. UMass, biggest win vs. Liberty (which could mean less after next week), is the CAA brand name enough?
Southern Utah (5-4) - some questionable losses, but have an FBS win and would have win vs. UNI if they get to 7-4

So it looks there are essentially 10 teams battling for 7 spots (I don't think 2nd place Patriot, NEC, OVC or MEAC teams have any shot unless there is total carnage among the above teams). Am I missing anyone? What 7 win teams could get left out? I think JMU is probably the first out. The committee's job could either be really easy or really hard depending on how things play out. If all 10 of the above teams have 7+ D1 wins after next week (which is possible), there will be 3 very disappointed teams. I could several of those teams choking though and making the committee's job very easy.

[Twentysix]

I was sure we were atleast a good chance for the playoffs. xsmhx

[UNH Fanboi]

I was sure we were atleast a good chance for the playoffs. xsmhx

I took the liberty of assuming you beat Western Illinois and get the AQ.

[eagle07]

I think he is assuming NDSU gets an autobid

[Twentysix]

ok lol.

[danefan]

When was the last time there was such a dearth of 7 DI win teams?

Lots of conference losses this year in just about every conference.

[eagle07]

When was the last time tree was such a dearth of 7 DI win teams?

Lots of conference losses this year in just about every conference.

lol, i was like wtf is tree

[danefan]

lol, i was like wtf is tree


Haha. iPad auto fill got me.

[Twentysix]

You still using your macbook wheel? Autofill xlolxxlolx


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8gF0KTfMrQ

[eagle07]

sad part is i didn't catch it right away.... took me a few times reading it. But, yes it does seem like there are going to be quite a few bubble teams this year i think its going to be hard to predict those last 4 play-in teams

[danefan]

You still using your macbook wheel? Autofill xlolxxlolx


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8gF0KTfMrQ

Auto fill, auto correct, you get the point.

I just figured out i can turn it off....wish i looked at that 6 months ago.

[Twentysix]

Auto fill, auto correct, you get the point.

I just figured out i can turn it off....wish i looked at that 6 months ago.

Just giving the macboy a little ****. I really dont care if you spell a few words wrong...

[tribefan40]

My At-Large Prediction:

Montana-Montana St. loser
ODU
Maine
ASU
UNH
UNI
Illinois St.
Youngstown St.
UCA
JMU

[UNH Fanboi]

In:
Montana-Montana St. loser
ODU (9-2)
Maine (8-2)
UNI (8-2)

Likely in (7 D1 wins already and either likely (i) to get 8 wins or (ii) still get in with 7):
ASU (7-3) - last game vs. Elon
UNH (7-3) - would be borderline at 7-4 after loss to Maine, but Lehigh win would prob be enough to tip the scales

Good chance
Wofford (7-3 (6 D1)) - final game vs. Chatty, have pretty big win over ASU
Illinois St. (7-3) - biggest win vs. Indiana St., but can get to 8 wins and be guaranteed with win over UNI
Indiana St. (6-4) - FBS win, no bad losses, needs to take care of business vs. SIU
Youngstown St. (6-4) - just beat #1 team, easy final game vs. Missouri St.
UCA (8-3 (7 D1)) - season wrapped up, no bad losses, but no big wins
JMU (6-4) - last game vs. UMass, biggest win vs. Liberty (which could mean less after next week), is the CAA brand name enough?

So now it looks there are 8 teams battling for 6 spots. I could see Wofford and JMU losing and making the committee's job easy.

[The Eagle's Cliff]

Playoff Locks:
Montana St 10-1 or 9-2
Montana 8-3 or 9-2
Big South Auto (Stony Brook or Liberty)
Norfolk St.
Old Dominion
NDSU 10-1 or 9-2
UNI 9-2 or 8-3
NEC Auto (Alabany with a win or Duquesne)
OVC Auto (TTU with a win or EKU with a win and TTU loss)
Lehigh
GSU
SHSU 11-0 or 10-1
CAU
Towson 9-2 or 8-3
Maine 9-2 or 8-3

5 spots left:
App with a win over Elon in at 8-3
UNH with a win over Maine in at 8-3
Wofford with a win over Chatty in at 8-3
Ill St with a win over UNI in at 8-3

Last in:
Youngstown with a win at 7-4
Bethune vs FAMU winner at 8-3
UNH at 7-4
Duquesne at 8-3
Georgetown at 8-3
JMU at 7-4

[BlueHenSinfonian]

The CAA playoff participant situation is interesting. Towson apparently now has the lock on the CAA title, and with it the autobid. I agree that Maine and ODU both seem to certainly be playoff bound as well. That likely leaves one at-large spot up for grabs from the CAA. My thinking is that if UNH wins next week, they grab it. If UNH loses and JMU wins, JMU gets it. What happens if both UNH and JMU lose though? Could Delaware be the first team to make it into the playoffs with 6 D1 wins? Neither UNH nor JMU will have victories over any of the apparently guaranteed CAA playoff teams, but UD has the head to head vs. both ODU and Towson.

The 7 D1 rule is unofficial, but at the same time after Montana being left home last year it seems to be beyond a long shot. Still, who knows, this is an odd season.

[UNH Fanboi]

If UNH loses and JMU wins, JMU gets it. What happens if both UNH and JMU lose though? Could Delaware be the first team to make it into the playoffs with 6 D1 wins? Neither UNH nor JMU will have victories over any of the apparently guaranteed CAA playoff teams, but UD has the head to head vs. both ODU and Towson.

I couldn't disagree more. First of all, with respect to JMU vs. UNH if both are 7-4, UNH has both the H2H and a win over top 10 Lehigh.

Regarding Delaware, they have no chance with 6 D1 wins. There will almost definitely be enough "power conference" teams with 7 D1 wins. 3 out of 4 of the following would need to lose: Wofford, JMU, Indiana. St. and Youngstown St. ISU and YSU are playing very weak teams. Even if that happens, the committee would then have to pass over 8+ win weak conference teams and break an unwritten rule that has never been broken. As you said, if they didn't make an exception for Montana ($$$) and JMU (win over top 10 FBS) last year, it aint going to happen for Delaware.