College Sporting News: Nov. 8 GPI Playoff Projections

[CSN-info]

By Kent Schmidt
College Sporting News columnist
http://www.collegesportingnews.com/entry.php?192-Nov.-9-GPI-Playoff-Projections

Here are my latest projections based on the GPI. The field is starting to be filled but there will likely still be some shuffling of the seeds and the last teams in in the last two weeks.

11/07/2011 GPI Top 25
Rank, School, Rating, Change
1. N Dakota St (1.00) -0 MVFC #1
2T. Northern Iowa (3.29) -0 At-Large #1 #2
2T. Sam Houston St (3.29) -0 SLC #3
4T. Ga Southern (4.00) -1 SoCon #4
4T. Montana St (4.00) +1 Big Sky #5
6. Wofford (6.43) +1 At-Large #2 Home-2nd
7. Appalachian St (8.14) -2 At-Large #3 Home-2nd
8. Montana (9.43) +1 At-Large #4 Home-2nd
9. New Hampshire (10.57) +3 CAA Road-2nd
10. Lehigh (11.29) -0 Patriot Road-2nd
11T. Furman (12.71) +4 At-Large #5 Road-2nd
11T. Maine (12.71) -3 At-Large #6 Road-2nd
13. Illinois St (13.29) +1 At-Large #7 Home-1st
14. Towson (14.71) +6 At-Large #8 Home-1st
15. Indiana St (15.43) -4 At-Large #9 Home-1st
16. Old Dominion (16.43) -0 At-Large #10 Home-1st
17. Harvard (18.14) -4
18. Chattanooga (18.43) -0
19. Portland St (20.57) NEW
20. Cent Arkansas (20.71) NEW
21. Brown (21.43) -0
22. Youngstown St (21.86) +1
23T. James Madison (24.14) -6
23T. Southern Utah (24.14) +2
25. Delaware (25.71) NEW
29. E Kentucky (28.29) OVC Road-1st
30. Liberty (28.43) Big South Road-1st
39. Norfolk St (37.00) MEAC Road-1st
61. Duquesne (50.57) NEC Road-1st

1st Round
Liberty @ Towson
E Kentucky @ Indiana St
Duquesne @ Illinois St
Norfolk St @ Old Dominion

2nd Round
EKU/Ind. St @ #1 N Dakota St
Duq/Ill St @ #2 N Iowa
Norf St/ODU @ #3 Sam Houston St
Liberty/Towson @ #4 Georgia Southern
Maine @ #5 Montana St
New Hamp @ Wofford
Furman @ Montana
Lehigh @ App State


Conf Breakdown
SoCon 4
MVFC 4
BSC 2
CAA 4
SLC 1
Patriot 1
Big South 1
OVC 1
MEAC 1
NEC 1

[PantherRob82]

Would blow my mind if UNI was the 2 seed. CAA teams would have to split, Sam would have to lose, and if Montana beats Montana State, they might be ahead of us. SoCon would have to end goofy as well.

[FanofFCS]

TSN's projection:

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/fcs/FCS_Bracket.pdf

[Redbird 4th & short]

By Kent Schmidt
College Sporting News columnist
http://www.collegesportingnews.com/entry.php?192-Nov.-9-GPI-Playoff-Projections

Here are my latest projections based on the GPI. The field is starting to be filled but there will likely still be some shuffling of the seeds and the last teams in in the last two weeks.

11/07/2011 GPI Top 25
Rank, School, Rating, Change
1. N Dakota St (1.00) -0 MVFC #1
2T. Northern Iowa (3.29) -0 At-Large #1 #2
2T. Sam Houston St (3.29) -0 SLC #3
4T. Ga Southern (4.00) -1 SoCon #4
4T. Montana St (4.00) +1 Big Sky #5
6. Wofford (6.43) +1 At-Large #2 Home-2nd
7. Appalachian St (8.14) -2 At-Large #3 Home-2nd
8. Montana (9.43) +1 At-Large #4 Home-2nd
9. New Hampshire (10.57) +3 CAA Road-2nd
10. Lehigh (11.29) -0 Patriot Road-2nd
11T. Furman (12.71) +4 At-Large #5 Road-2nd
11T. Maine (12.71) -3 At-Large #6 Road-2nd
13. Illinois St (13.29) +1 At-Large #7 Home-1st
14. Towson (14.71) +6 At-Large #8 Home-1st
15. Indiana St (15.43) -4 At-Large #9 Home-1st
16. Old Dominion (16.43) -0 At-Large #10 Home-1st
17. Harvard (18.14) -4
18. Chattanooga (18.43) -0
19. Portland St (20.57) NEW
20. Cent Arkansas (20.71) NEW
21. Brown (21.43) -0
22. Youngstown St (21.86) +1
23T. James Madison (24.14) -6
23T. Southern Utah (24.14) +2
25. Delaware (25.71) NEW ... Delaware won to go 7-4
29. E Kentucky (28.29) OVC Road-1st .. only if they won OVC outright
30. Liberty (28.43) Big South Road-1st
39. Norfolk St (37.00) MEAC Road-1st
61. Duquesne (50.57) NEC Road-1st

1st Round
Liberty @ Towson
E Kentucky @ Indiana St
Duquesne @ Illinois St
Norfolk St @ Old Dominion

2nd Round
EKU/Ind. St @ #1 N Dakota St
Duq/Ill St @ #2 N Iowa
Norf St/ODU @ #3 Sam Houston St
Liberty/Towson @ #4 Georgia Southern
Maine @ #5 Montana St
New Hamp @ Wofford
Furman @ Montana
Lehigh @ App State


Conf Breakdown
SoCon 4
MVFC 4
BSC 2
CAA 4
SLC 1
Patriot 1
Big South 1
OVC 1
MEAC 1
NEC 1
so after 10 weeks, ISUr was sitting 7-3 rated #13 by GPI .. the ranking system most utilized by FCS selection committee .. they said so. EKU was 6-4 ranked #29 and playing patsy TN Martin. We lose in 2OT to #2 UNI by 3. EKU beats a weak TN Martin (4-6) by 7 at home. And we drop out of playoff picture ??? And EKU leap frogs 10 spots into playoffs as at large bid from a conf that had lost 17 straight playoff games over 12 year period ... gets 2 teams, same as top conf MVFC

Right .. big bid, wink, nod .... cha ching .. until only 2300 show up and they lose game and big $$$$

Again, GPI was the system cited by Selection committee as the one the lean on most. Above is after week 10.

Awful lot of smoke there .... it's called corruption .. its wrong .. I'll go get some help now.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

so after 10 weeks, ISUr was sitting 7-3 rated #13 by GPI .. the ranking system most utilized by FCS selection committee .. they said so. EKU was 6-4 ranked #29 and playing patsy TN Martin. We lose in 2OT to #2 UNI by 3. EKU beats a weak TN Martin (4-6) by 7 at home. And we drop out of playoff picture ??? And EKU leap frogs 10 spots into playoffs as at large bid from a conf that had lost 17 straight playoff games over 12 year period ... gets 2 teams, same as top conf MVFC

Right .. big bid, wink, nod .... cha ching .. until only 2300 show up and they lose game and big $$$$

Again, GPI was the system cited by Selection committee as the one the lean on most. Above is after week 10.

Awful lot of smoke there .... it's called corruption .. its wrong .. I'll go get some help now.

The GPI was absolutely not the most used system by the selection committee and this is a whole nother can of worms that I ain't getting into but I am sure someone can find the thread where the head of the committee stated that it was not a factor used in selections...and the AGS Poll beat the GPI every year anyway in matching teams selected.

If you want to do some searching...look that history up. I don't know where you saw it cited as the system they used the most but would be interested in seeing that. You apparently haven't been here enough to realize how really silly the corruption angle is but so be it, we've had those discussions around here for so long I'll let you search those as well cuz it is a really dumb premise and don't want to go over beating it down again.

[Redbird 4th & short]

The GPI was absolutely not the most used system by the selection committee and this is a whole nother can of worms that I ain't getting into but I am sure someone can find the thread where the head of the committee stated that it was not a factor used in selections...and the AGS Poll beat the GPI every year anyway in matching teams selected.

If you want to do some searching...look that history up. I don't know where you saw it cited as the system they used the most but would be interested in seeing that. You apparently haven't been here enough to realize how really silly the corruption angle is but so be it, we've had those discussions around here for so long I'll let you search those as well cuz it is a really dumb premise and don't want to go over beating it down again.

I've seen/heard it said many times that they rely on GPI. Below is article written right after 2011 season.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2012-05-10/fcs-looks-expand-tournament

FCS looks to expand tournament Expansion would see 24 teams make tourney by 2013 season The Associated Press



Last Updated - May 10, 2012 15:57 EDT ... note this is just months after 2011 playoff season.


"Some coaches think the methodology needs to also change if the FCS selection committee is going to seed eight teams instead of just five. The committee weighs factors that include the Gridiron Power Index or GPI, a compilation of computer and human polls similar to the BCS model."

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I've seen/heard it said many times that they rely on GPI. Below is article written right after 2011 season.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2012-05-10/fcs-looks-expand-tournament

FCS looks to expand tournament Expansion would see 24 teams make tourney by 2013 season The Associated Press



Last Updated - May 10, 2012 15:57 EDT ... note this is just months after 2011 playoff season.


"Some coaches think the methodology needs to also change if the FCS selection committee is going to seed eight teams instead of just five. The committee weighs factors that include the Gridiron Power Index or GPI, a compilation of computer and human polls similar to the BCS model."

Quite different than this though isn't it?

Again, GPI was the system cited by Selection committee as the one the lean on most.

The GPI was sent in along with many other polls etc. and they are/were all given very little credence in comparison to the committee's own poll that they keep. It can be seen as an example in real life situations like the one you are presenting here.

The GPI in it's best years could only match the AGS Poll (I think it happened once or twice in the last 10) and in most years feel at least a team or two or three short of what we projected in house here.

Not knocking it, I just want you to be clear that is not and was not the metric you thought it was in deciding anything with the playoffs.

[Professor Chaos]

I've seen/heard it said many times that they rely on GPI. Below is article written right after 2011 season.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2012-05-10/fcs-looks-expand-tournament

FCS looks to expand tournament Expansion would see 24 teams make tourney by 2013 season The Associated Press



Last Updated - May 10, 2012 15:57 EDT ... note this is just months after 2011 playoff season.


"Some coaches think the methodology needs to also change if the FCS selection committee is going to seed eight teams instead of just five. The committee weighs factors that include the Gridiron Power Index or GPI, a compilation of computer and human polls similar to the BCS model."
Pretty sure that's just lazy reporting. As far as I've understood the only time the selection committee took GPI into account was when the Pioneer League "bridge auto-qualifier" was in place in the late 2000s/early 2010s before the Pioneer got it actual autobid when the playoffs expanded to 24 in 2013. The stipulation was something like if a Pioneer League team had at least 2 wins over teams from autobid leagues and they finished in the top 20 of the GPI they would be granted an automatic bid to the playoffs.

The owner of the GPI loved to lay claim to the fact that it was "the only ranking system used by the FCS/D1AA playoff selection committee" but I'm pretty sure it's use was limited just to that bridge auto.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Professor ... Lazy reporting ? Well NCAA reps said it and NCAA posted the article on their website .. that is where I got it, from NCAA website.

Ursus .. As for my statement that GPI is the system they lean on most .. it is the only one they have ever mentioned. Note, I didn't say they rely on GPI entirely to make their decision, just that is the system they rely on most. BTW, this is not the only time they have said it and they have never mentioned any other system that I recall.

For perspective ... This was in response to you saying they did not use GPI, which was after my claim they did in pointing out the 14 vs 33 ranking disparity. Now it seems like you're changing your argument to it isn't the only thing they rely on.

[Professor Chaos]

Professor ... Lazy reporting ? Well NCAA reps said it and NCAA posted the article on their website .. that is where I got it, from NCAA website.

Ursus .. As for my statement that GPI is the system they lean on most .. it is the only one they have ever mentioned. Note, I didn't say they rely on GPI entirely to make their decision, just that is the system they rely on most. BTW, this is not the only time they have said it and they have never mentioned any other system that I recall.

For perspective ... This was in response to you saying they did not use GPI, which was after my claim they did in pointing out the 14 vs 33 ranking disparity. Now it seems like you're changing your argument to it isn't the only thing they rely on.
Yep, lazy reporting. It's an AP article, you'll find it in a lot of other places other than the NCAA's website. I'd challenge you to find any article that quotes the selection committee saying they used the GPI for anything other than the Pioneer League's bridge auto. Because I've seen it straight from the horse's mouth (in November 2012) that it isn't/wasn't used for anything other than that (the link to the article no longer works in the below quote): http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?123872-Fact-GPI-Not-Used-in-general-at-large-Selection


Thanks to FargoBison for posting this article.

http://www.inforum.com/event/article/id/380571/group/Sports/


Contrary to some FCS public opinion, the Gridiron Power Index poll is not a primary factor.

“We use it in a very limited fashion,” said Damani Leech, director of championships and alliances for the NCAA.

Specifically, the only time the GPI is used is if a team from the non-scholarship Pioneer League is on the cusp of making the field. For a Pioneer team to make it, a team must have eight Division I wins, with two coming against a team from a league that has an automatic qualifier, and it finishes the season ranked 20th or higher in an average of three top 25 polls: the coaches’, Sports Network media and the GPI.

“So (the GPI) is used to evaluate one team, and it’s one of the components of it,” Leech said.

A Pioneer team has never made the playoffs. It’s doubtful a team has even been close.

This is not meant to demean the GPI. It’s a rather accurate rating and considering a main FCS selection factor is strength of schedule, it’s a pretty good predictor on who will get in. The litmus test will be Indiana State, which if it beats Youngstown State on Saturday, will have seven D-I victories but a high GPI.

Leech said the FCS playoff committee does its own rankings via conference calls during the season, and when the group huddles this weekend in Indianapolis, they will have that chart in front of them. Wins versus Football Bowl Subdivision teams are very much a factor, he said.