Week 10 Playoff Projections-AGS Members

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Here's the link to the Week 10 Projections. Let me know if you want to be added to this talent pool.


AGS Playoff Projections Week 10 2011 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?hl=en_US&hl=en_US&key=0Aph2Xme278kGdFpMNklwYWxhWFFUcldZWU8zTW5Ma2c&output=html)

[WileECoyote06]

Yeah I want in. . what do I gotta do?

[boonegoon]

In professor chaos' if App were to win, they would have to travel to Bozeman and Missoula back to back weeks, ugh.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Yeah I want in. . what do I gotta do?

Just send me a pm and I'll make you up a sheet. That goes for anyone. Man that thread I started last week just got ignored en masse it appears.xlolx

[ursus arctos horribilis]

In professor chaos' if App were to win, they would have to travel to Bozeman and Missoula back to back weeks, ugh.

It would be a ***** huh? That is however exactly what we had to do in 2008. It sucks real bad for the team.

[Professor Chaos]

In professor chaos' if App were to win, they would have to travel to Bozeman and Missoula back to back weeks, ugh.
Didn't even notice that but that would be a rough couple weeks for App. You could potentially outbid Montana though cuz I don't have them seeded.

I was debating switching Wofford and App St and putting App up with NDSU. That was pretty much just a coin flip decision for me.

[Squealofthepig]

This was kinda tough, so I had some fun with mine.

Does anyone know how much regionalization/bids have changed pairings since we went to 20 teams? Obviously not an issue for the five seeds, but makes for some interesting pairings.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

This was kinda tough, so I had some fun with mine.

Does anyone know how much regionalization/bids have changed pairings since we went to 20 teams? Obviously not an issue for the five seeds, but makes for some interesting pairings.

Bids are not opened until after the pairings are selected so in theory it's not supposed to change the pairings.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Got 7 of ya in already so that isn't a bad start. At least nobody is ripping apart any bracket projections...yet.:D

[BisonFan02]

Probably have Illinois State too high in mine, but I like alot of the matchups (and potential quarterfinal matchups).

[MTfan4life]

This was kinda tough, so I had some fun with mine.

Does anyone know how much regionalization/bids have changed pairings since we went to 20 teams? Obviously not an issue for the five seeds, but makes for some interesting pairings.

Squeal, you forgot to include New Hampshire, and you have Lehigh twice.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

When you fix it squel let me know and I'll go copy it over.

[Squealofthepig]

Squeal, you forgot to include New Hampshire, and you have Lehigh twice.

What, I can't have Lum in two places at the same time? :) I'd been debating on the Georgetown/Lehigh game (and whether I'd say, OK, let's assume Georgetown wins) with another scenario where UNH loses to Maine and Towson, but forgot to reconcile them both. It's just a good thing I'm not on the committee, obviously. *heh*

[Squealofthepig]

When you fix it squel let me know and I'll go copy it over.

Thanks, fixed. :)

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Thanks, fixed. :)

Done. Had to make two columns since a few more are trying it this week.

[LehighU11]

Probably have Illinois State too high in mine, but I like alot of the matchups (and potential quarterfinal matchups).

Lehigh-UNI would be a great matchup perhaps in the quarterfinals. Would rather see the Panthers come out east to Bethlehem though xnodx

[X-Factor]

Lehigh-UNI would be a great matchup perhaps in the quarterfinals. Would rather see the Panthers come out east to Bethlehem though xnodx

Unless Lehigh is seeded, I doubt you would get a home game over UNI. It's all about the benjamins.

[LehighU11]

Unless Lehigh is seeded, I doubt you would get a home game over UNI. It's all about the benjamins.

Last year, UNI only drew a crowd of 5990 in their game against Lehigh. In 2008, they had three home playoff games with attendances of 8.5, 9, and 12k. Both the UNI Dome and Goodman seat 16,000. Lehigh has a strong alumni fan base that would certainly pack Goodman for a 2nd round or quarterfinal against the Panthers.

I think Lehigh (endowment of $1+ billion) is also more than capable of outbidding UNI (endowment of $66 million) if it wanted to.

[bjtheflamesfan]

made a minor adjustment to my projection UAH because I had a team listed twice

[andy7171]

X-factor has Towson playing UNH. I thought the selection committee doesn't schedule same conference teams in the opening round. You could break up the App State- Illinois State game.

[danefan]

X-factor has Towson playing UNH. I thought the selection committee doesn't schedule same conference teams in the opening round. You could break up the App State- Illinois State game.

As per the 2011 FCS Playoff Handbook


All pairings will be made by the Division I football championship committee. The
following principles are applied when pairing teams:
1. Teams deemed by the committee to be the 12 best teams selected to the championship shall receive a first-round bye. The remaining eight teams shall play first-round games and will be paired according to geographic proximity.
2. The teams awarded the top five seeds are placed in the appropriate positions in the bracket (Nos. 1 and 4 in the upper half, and Nos. 2 and 3 in the lower half, and No. 5 in the upper half of the bracket adjacent to the No. 4 seed bracket such that they would be quarterfinal round opponents should they advance);
3. The committee shall determine the seven remaining teams that merit a first-round bye;
4. The No. 5 seed and the seven unseeded teams receiving a first-round bye shall be paired with teams that are in closest geographic proximity;
5. The remaining eight teams will play first-round games and will be paired according to geographic proximity and placed in the bracket according to geographic proximity of the top four seeds previously placed in the bracket;
6. The NCAA mileage threshold for mandatory team travel via ground is 400 miles;
7. Teams from the same conference will not be paired for first-round games or for secondround games when both teams are playing their first games of the championship;
8. Once the first-round pairings have been determined, there will be no adjustments to the bracket (e.g., a top-four seed may play a conference opponent that advanced out of the first round.

http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/champ_handbooks/football/2011/2011_1_football.pdf

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Got some new playa's submitting and I also put a link at the top of the pages in the banner so you can check them to see what people are projecting quickly.

[MTfan4life]

I see a lot of people are putting Lehigh in a road game to start the playoffs and some have Lehigh in the play-in games. Now while I would be one of the last people to defend their legitimacy until they win some playoff games, last season the selection committee gave both Jacksonville St. (OVC) and Bethune-Cookman (MEAC) second round home games. I don't think they're afraid to overrate a team from a one-bid conference with a record consisting of only one or two losses. I wouldn't rank them that high, but I have a feeling the committee will after rewarding those two teams with the home second rounders last year.

[PantherRob82]

I see a lot of people are putting Lehigh in a road game to start the playoffs and some have Lehigh in the play-in games. Now while I would be one of the last people to defend their legitimacy until they win some playoff games, last season the selection committee gave both Jacksonville St. (OVC) and Bethune-Cookman (MEAC) second round home games. I don't think they're afraid to overrate a team from a one-bid conference with a record consisting of only one or two losses. I wouldn't rank them that high, but I have a feeling the committee will after rewarding those two teams with the home second rounders last year.

Those teams got home games as a result of their bid.

[bjtheflamesfan]

I have Lehigh and Wofford matching up in the second round (itll be fun seeing YT and TheFan going head to head in that leadup if it happens) but Im pretty sure if Lehigh wants a home game (for the first round or the round of 16) they are going to have to drop some pretty significant cheddar. Im pretty sure that between Liberty and Stony Brook, the Flames have a higher likelihood of getting a home game in the first round because they are going to drop a lot more money than many of the teams that by all accounts are projected to be playing that first weekend

[danefan]

fully agree here

a 10-1 Lehigh ranked somewhere around 6-8 in the Coach's and TSN polls (pre playoff) would not be in a play-in game, and depending on the $ factor, would likely be a host to the second round game. They also will not be in a second round game against a top 5 seed as some of posters have predicted...

They could very well be playing the #5 seed.


The No. 5 seed and the seven unseeded teams receiving a first-round bye shall be paired with teams that are in closest geographic proximity;


play first-round games and will be paired according to geographic proximity and placed in the bracket according to geographic proximity of the top four seeds previously placed in the bracket;
http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/champ_handbooks/football/2011/2011_1_football.pdf


So if Towson is the #5 seed, Lehigh will very likely be travelling to Towson.


The 400 mile determination is based on this calculator if anyone is interested.
https://web1.ncaa.org/TES/exec/miles

[bjtheflamesfan]

As HL said, for Lehigh to host a game in either round, they are going to have to drop some pretty serious cash (and Im willing to bet that if the Hawks arent facing a seed that they are going to end up being outbid for their game if they start in the second round).

[PantherRob82]

oh ok

and how high a bid would you think that $1 billion endowment Lehigh, with a 20,000 capacity stadium (expanded), will have?

Judging by last year, not too high. UNI has budget issues and outbid them. Hard to say though.

[Professor Chaos]

It'll be interesting to see how the committee matches up UNI if they don't get a seed. Quite a few of the projections have them going to Montana. It will be really telling about whether or not the NCAA cares more about regionalization or money when the pairings come out if they pair two high-drawing teams like UNI and Montana together instead of sending a lower drawing team like a UNH or Maine out west to Montucky even if the Panthers are the closer option.

[LehighU11]

Judging by last year, not too high. UNI has budget issues and outbid them. Hard to say though.

It all depends on when Lehigh would be potentially hosting a game. It doesn't make sense to bid for a home game on Thanksgiving weekend when most are out of town. However, if there is a 2nd round game up for bid, I think that a considerably-sized bid is likely. Especially given the success and renewed interest in the team over the past 2 seasons.

[SeattleGriz]

Didn't even notice that but that would be a rough couple weeks for App. You could potentially outbid Montana though cuz I don't have them seeded.

I was debating switching Wofford and App St and putting App up with NDSU. That was pretty much just a coin flip decision for me.

Ain't gonna happen. Montana won't be outbid by any team. I posted this elsewhere, but Montana pretty much outdraws APP by 6K in first round games and then it just goes up from there as the games progress.

[SeattleGriz]

Lehigh Football Nation has the best one in my opinion, but that is because I think Montana will beat MSU in two weeks.

[bjtheflamesfan]

oh ok

and how high a bid would you think that $1 billion endowment Lehigh, with a 20,000 capacity stadium (expanded), will have?

Rob's right...your bid pretty much boils down to how much money you are willing to put down to host a game (minimum is I think $30,000 or $50,000). DOesnt matter how big your endowment is or really even how big your stadium is. If you dont put down more money than the team your matched up against, your 20,000 seat stadium is going to be empty while your team buses or flies to its game

[Professor Chaos]

Ain't gonna happen. Montana won't be outbid by any team. I posted this elsewhere, but Montana pretty much outdraws APP by 6K in first round games and then it just goes up from there as the games progress.

That would be a national semi-final in my bracket. WaGriz is capped at roughly 25K. KBS is not. Students are out of school by that time so maybe that works in Montana's advantage but I still think App St would outdraw Montana in that scenario. Whether the bids would reflect that is unknown.

[BisonFan02]

I have UNI as a 5 seed hosting Lehigh in mine....also want to see App make the trip to WaGriz with the winner potentially headed to Fargo.

[PantherRob82]

It'll be interesting to see how the committee matches up UNI if they don't get a seed. Quite a few of the projections have them going to Montana. It will be really telling about whether or not the NCAA cares more about regionalization or money when the pairings come out if they pair two high-drawing teams like UNI and Montana together instead of sending a lower drawing team like a UNH or Maine out west to Montucky even if the Panthers are the closer option.

From past experience, it seems like the NCAA does not view the Montanas and UNI as regional. I believe the limit for that
is 400 miles or something. It is a 24 hour drive from Cedar Falls to Missoula, and if UNI has to fly, it's probably not much cheaper than if someone flew from out east.

You never know with the NCAA though.

[PantherRob82]

I have UNI as a 5 seed hosting Lehigh in mine....also want to see App make the trip to WaGriz with the winner potentially headed to Fargo.

Please not Lehigh. I don't need revenge and would rather see a different team. Even if we were to win I would hate to see the same team again. Especially since Lehigh fans were not social last year. :D

[BisonFan02]

Please not Lehigh. I don't need revenge and would rather see a different team. Even if we were to win I would hate to see the same team again. Especially since Lehigh fans were not social last year. :D

Oh come on! UNI could do AGS a favor and beat them. :D

[PantherRob82]

Oh come on! UNI could do AGS a favor and beat them. :D

I guarantee Lehigh would at least out coach us. That was the biggest issue last year. We lost the chess match before we even got to the execution phase.

[Squealofthepig]

That would be a national semi-final in my bracket. WaGriz is capped at roughly 25K. KBS is not. Students are out of school by that time so maybe that works in Montana's advantage but I still think App St would outdraw Montana in that scenario. Whether the bids would reflect that is unknown.

Outdraw, based on what? Let's check history, shall we?

ASU:
2010:
vs. WIU: 13,322
vs. Nova: 15,706

2009:
vs. SC State: 12,216

2008:
vs. SC State: 13,712
vs. Richmond: 15,215

Now, Montana:
2010: D'oh! Stupid Cats keeping us out of the playoffs. :)

2009:
vs. SDSU: 19,197
vs. SFA: 22,438
vs. ASU: 24,207

2008:
vs. Texas State: 19,489
vs. Weber State: 21,583


So, umm, the largest ASU home playoff game (15,706) was almost 4,000 less than the smallest Montana home playoff game.

[PantherRob82]

Don't be bringing facts to this board!

[BisonFan02]

Outdraw, based on what? Let's check history, shall we?

ASU:
2010:
vs. WIU: 13,322
vs. Nova: 15,706

2009:
vs. SC State: 12,216

2008:
vs. SC State: 13,712
vs. Richmond: 15,215

Now, Montana:
2010: D'oh! Stupid Cats keeping us out of the playoffs. :)

2009:
vs. SDSU: 19,197
vs. SFA: 22,438
vs. ASU: 24,207

2008:
vs. Texas State: 19,489
vs. Weber State: 21,583


So, umm, the largest ASU home playoff game (15,706) was almost 4,000 less than the smallest Montana home playoff game.

Agree, I have App heading to Montana on my bracket.

[PantherRob82]

Consensus seems to be UNI getting Maine, UNH, or Lehigh if they are home, Montana if they are seeded.

History says the first part is true. I doubt we see Montana in the First round, if we do, we won't be seeded and will head to Montana.

[Squealofthepig]

Agree, I have App heading to Montana on my bracket.

I'm mainly curious what PC's thinking is. There's not as much buzz for Montana this year as in other years, but the same can be said of the Mountaineers this year. I still can't help but note that both the Mountaineers and Griz bid aggressively and consistently, so an opening round game sending one to the other seems unlikely to me (but who knows what will happen!)

(Edit: That last part is an additional point; Butters has the matchup in the semi's).

[BisonFan02]

I'm mainly curious what PC's thinking is. There's not as much buzz for Montana this year as in other years, but the same can be said of the Mountaineers this year. I still can't help but note that both the Mountaineers and Griz bid aggressively and consistently, so an opening round game sending one to the other seems unlikely to me (but who knows what will happen!)

(Edit: That last part is an additional point; Butters has the matchup in the semi's).

I'm probably just being greedy on my end of the bracket....I want to see the winner of a Mont/App game come to Fargo, and I think alot of people would like to see the matchup anyway.

[Squealofthepig]

I'm probably just being greedy on my end of the bracket....I want to see the winner of a Mont/App game come to Fargo, and I think alot of people would like to see the matchup anyway.

I agree; I'd like to see that matchup, too (slightly different take, as I wanted to host Maine first in the second round before a possible matchup with the Bison - loved the Battle of the Bears previously).

[Professor Chaos]

Outdraw, based on what? Let's check history, shall we?

ASU:
2010:
vs. WIU: 13,322
vs. Nova: 15,706

2009:
vs. SC State: 12,216

2008:
vs. SC State: 13,712
vs. Richmond: 15,215

Now, Montana:
2010: D'oh! Stupid Cats keeping us out of the playoffs. :)

2009:
vs. SDSU: 19,197
vs. SFA: 22,438
vs. ASU: 24,207

2008:
vs. Texas State: 19,489
vs. Weber State: 21,583


So, umm, the largest ASU home playoff game (15,706) was almost 4,000 less than the smallest Montana home playoff game.
I just thought ASU would draw better for a national semi than they would for a 1st/2nd round game. I know Montana would outdraw them the weekend of Thanksgiving and the weekend after. I'm probably mistaken, judging from those numbers it's hard to justify that ASU could pick up enough to compete the Montana even for a national semi. I'll consider myself corrected.

[BisonFan02]

Assuming "chalk" with seeds (yeah, I know, it never happens), here would be my semifinals:

App St./Montana @ NDSU
Northern Iowa @ Georgia Southern
Wofford/Towson @ SHSU
UNH/Ill St @ Montana St.

That would be sick IMO.

[Squealofthepig]

I just thought ASU would draw better for a national semi than they would for a 1st/2nd round game. I know Montana would outdraw them the weekend of Thanksgiving and the weekend after. I'm probably mistaken, judging from those numbers it's hard to justify that ASU could pick up enough to compete the Montana even for a national semi. I'll consider myself corrected.

I think it's a pretty common perception, though, so wanted to throw some numbers out there, and thought you might know something I didn't. I still see both universities bidding about the same (and higher than almost all others, save maybe GSU and the Bison). Good luck this weekend vs. the Penguins!

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Ain't gonna happen. Montana won't be outbid by any team. I posted this elsewhere, but Montana pretty much outdraws APP by 6K in first round games and then it just goes up from there as the games progress.

Chaos is out his damn mind in that one but was probably thinking regular season #'s which App has battled with MT for the overall lead. App gets only slightly more fans during the season charging far less per seat.

As far as bids go and budgeted return to the NCAA through tickets it isn't even close.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

That would be a national semi-final in my bracket. WaGriz is capped at roughly 25K. KBS is not. Students are out of school by that time so maybe that works in Montana's advantage but I still think App St would outdraw Montana in that scenario. Whether the bids would reflect that is unknown.

You have plenty of data to go look at and see that you are simply mistaken on this point. It doesn't happen. Montana sends about $500K for a home playoff game. App sends about 250-350K if they have a good matchup. I'm not saying it is impossible but it is very unlikely.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I just thought ASU would draw better for a national semi than they would for a 1st/2nd round game. I know Montana would outdraw them the weekend of Thanksgiving and the weekend after. I'm probably mistaken, judging from those numbers it's hard to justify that ASU could pick up enough to compete the Montana even for a national semi. I'll consider myself corrected.

Ah hell, I wish I had seen this before the last post. Gotta read all the way through instead of quoting and then doing so.:D

[asknoquarter21]

I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see the committee jump at the opportunity to have Montana, Georgia Southern and Appalachian State all host games in the second round.

The CAA is lacking Delaware and possibly JMU which are two of the big money draws from that conference. Maine, UNH, Towson are very unlikely to have home games unless they are seeded. Since none of these matchups sans Lehigh and UNH (370 Miles)/Towson (143 Miles).

If Towson isn't seeded I think it is a no brainer to think Towson and Lehigh will be matching up. Leaving Montana, GSU/Wofford, ASU, UNH, Maine, #5 seed as the reamining 6 teams to matchup with each other.

Of course, none of this will matter if Lehigh doesn't get a bye.

[danefan]

I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see the committee jump at the opportunity to have Montana, Georgia Southern and Appalachian State all host games in the second round.

The CAA is lacking Delaware and possibly JMU which are two of the big money draws from that conference. Maine, UNH, Towson are very unlikely to have home games unless they are seeded. Since none of these matchups sans Lehigh and UNH (370 Miles)/Towson (143 Miles).

If Towson isn't seeded I think it is a no brainer to think Towson and Lehigh will be matching up. Leaving Montana, GSU/Wofford, ASU, UNH, Maine, #5 seed as the reamining 6 teams to matchup with each other.

Even if Towson is the #5 seed, I still think they'll be playing Lehigh. The #5 seed is still matched up against a regional opponent. The Top 4 seeds play the winners of the first round games based on regionalization also.

[asknoquarter21]

Even if Towson is the #5 seed, I still think they'll be playing Lehigh. The #5 seed is still matched up against a regional opponent. The Top 4 seeds play the winners of the first round games based on regionalization also.

True, I guess I meant a top 4 seed. It would take Montana beating MSU and maybe Wofford beating GSU then losing to UTC. Stanger things have happened though.

[joecooll6]

oh ok

and how high a bid would you think that $1 billion endowment Lehigh, with a 20,000 capacity stadium (expanded), will have?

Do you seriously think Lehigh will dip into its university endowment to pay for a football playoff game?

It doesn't matter how big your stadium is if you don't fill it up. Maybe Lehigh wouldn't have the playoff attendance dip that UNI has had but if you compare attendances this year between UNI and Lehigh there is no comparison.

Lehigh-
vs. New Hampshire- 7519
vs. Liberty- 6185
vs. Yale 6072
vs. Holy Cross- 9217

UNI-
vs. WIU- 16059
vs. Indy St.- 16850
vs. SIU- 15265
vs. Younstown- 11523

[WrenFGun]

Here's a question. Lets say UNH is the #5 seed (9-2, 7-1 in the CAA by winning out). The only regional non-conference matchup they could play would be Lehigh, as there is almost no chance that Albany gets a first round bye. Would the committee match them up with Lehigh again? Is that doable? Or would they fly the best team they could in and make it the ESPN game (no chance that happens though since ESPN isn't coming back to Cowell).

[MTfan4life]

http://www.championships...the-fcs-playoffs/ (http://www.championshipsubdivision.com/history-of-the-fcs-playoffs/)
Looking at the history of the playoffs, it's tough to figure out the committee's regionalization tendencies. Look at 2002 vs. 2003. In 2002, one pod had two Big Sky teams and two Southland teams. Another had two OVC paired up with two MVFC. Then in 2003, all three Big Sky teams were spread out. None of the pods seem regionalized other than the first game. It's hard to figure out which system they are going to use.

[LehighU11]

Wow
Thanks for the figures
now find UNI s 2010 attendance figures and compare to what they had for the playoff game in 2010

Completely agree with TheFan. Last year, UNI only drew a crowd of 5990 in their game against Lehigh despite regular season attendance figures similar to this year. This weekend will draw a large crowd as it is "The Patriot League Championship Game" and next week is already sold-out, as always, for the 147th meeting with Lafayette.

[Squealofthepig]

Completely agree with TheFan. Last year, UNI only drew a crowd of 5990 in their game against Lehigh despite regular season attendance figures similar to this year. This weekend will draw a large crowd as it is "The Patriot League Championship Game" and next week is already sold-out, as always, for the 147th meeting with Lafayette.

OMG, only 6k? That would be so embarrassing for the first weekend of the playoffs! Imagine if Lehigh did that! Like they exactly did in 2004 when they last hosted a playoff game, to JMU (6,116 attending)

(ALL teams have relatively horrible attendance the first weekend of the playoffs, no matter who you are).

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Completely agree with TheFan. Last year, UNI only drew a crowd of 5990 in their game against Lehigh despite regular season attendance figures similar to this year. This weekend will draw a large crowd as it is "The Patriot League Championship Game" and next week is already sold-out, as always, for the 147th meeting with Lafayette.

You know if you are advocating that it is crazy to be comparing UNI's regular crowds to their playoff crowds, which I agree with btw, then how can you go and throw out the #'s in a rivalry game and another regular season conference deciding game?

[Squealofthepig]

You know if you are advocating that it is crazy to be comparing UNI's regular crowds to their playoff crowds, which I agree with btw, then how can you go and throw out the #'s in a rivalry game and another regular season conference deciding game?

Because **** consistency, that's why! (That's my best guess, at least).

[unigriff]

You know if you are advocating that it is crazy to be comparing UNI's regular crowds to their playoff crowds, which I agree with btw, then how can you go and throw out the #'s in a rivalry game and another regular season conference deciding game?

You also don't realize....
1. While we did win the conference title...we limped into the playoffs only because we got the autobid.
2. We were playing in the 1st round, on Thanksgiving weekend.
3. We were playing an unpopularily known Lehigh team who we figured we'd smush...yes we assumed wrong, congrats and good job this season!

We have traditionally never had large crowds over the holiday season and also with our basketball team doing quite well recently along with the economy, it has taken a toll on time and our pocketbooks.

For this year we are avg. near a sell out (minus one game...YSU, when both Iowa and ISU had home games the same day taking our dual fans away)...which is uncommon for us. I think had we won at NDSU...we would be having a huge following Saturday and for the playoff run. Still might but gotta finish strong.

[unigriff]

ps...i wanna get in on this playoff projection

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Ok then- lets look at UNIs last two regular season games compared to Lehigh s which will be at about 12,000 and 18,000

That would be the way to argue the point. The other way lacks all sorts of thought. The best way to do it would be to take the measurement of crowds throughout the 2004 season and compare to the same years playoff crowd. The compare this years avg. attendance and project the playoff crowd and do the same with UNI.

Pretty tough to say someone else isn't comparing apples to apples and then turn around and compare apples to your own oranges.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

ps...i wanna get in on this playoff projection

Pretty easy to do. Send the pm and I'll respond with the link.

[Squealofthepig]

Ok then- lets look at UNIs last two regular season games compared to Lehigh s which will be at about 12,000 and 18,000

You know, if you have to selectively PICK what you want to use for your sample size, math just might not be your strong suit.

[ngineer]

The first round playoff games are traditionally poorly attended because it is Thanksgiving weekend. Lehigh last hosted a playoff in 2004 against JMU and I think the official attendance was around 6500. If Lehigh gets a shot at a home second round game, I would think the school will make a strong bid to get it. Assuming good weather, students will be back and that weekend will provide a nice break before the final exam push. Hosting a regional team from the East could land a very nice crowd.

[813Jag]

I had Maine twice on my bracket made the change and added EKU (left out the OVC)

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Here's the average projection from all you guys for Week 10.


AGS Playoff Projection (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?hl=en_US&hl=en_US&key=0Aph2Xme278kGdGs3d0oxX1ZJaUszWkJmeElTeXhydXc&output=html)

[Engineer86]

I had Maine twice on my bracket made the change and added EKU (left out the OVC)

You might want to change that to Tennessee Tech

[MTfan4life]

They still have to win one game. It's been very evident in the OVC this season that no single game is a guarantee.

[LehighU11]

With Wofford's loss and if this NDSU score holds, brackets are going to be a mess.

[DoubleE]

YSU just booked themselves into the playoffs ;)

[dgreco]

YSU just booked themselves into the playoffs ;)

And Furman played themselves out; or Elon crushed their chances.

[eagle07]

What do you guys think, does GSU get a seed even with the future loss to alabama?

[UIWWildthing]

If Towson wins next week, are they one of the Top 4 seeds?

[Appattk]

I believe both Towson and GSU will get seeds due to topping their respective conferences..

[ursus arctos horribilis]

What do you guys think, does GSU get a seed even with the future loss to alabama?

That will have very little if any determination on the seed I would think.

[Twentysix]

Makes them have only 8 wins though....