Could App loss to WCU Knock Them from Playoffs?

[Lehigh Football Nation]

* App would have lost at least two of last three
* One quality win (Georgia Southern)
* OOC wins against cupcake teams (NCAT, Savannah State)
* 66-13 loss against FBS Virginia Tech - does not hurt cause, but does not help

Food for thought...

[Fear the Bird]

I don't even think it's a question - they would not make it

But is it even possible for App to lose to WCU?

[cannonballgsu]

Will not happen. Sure would be funny though.

[youwouldno]

Furman has a better chance against Florida than WCU does against App. Not joking.

[StorminASU]

* App would have lost at least two of last three
* One quality win (Georgia Southern)
* OOC wins against cupcake teams (NCAT, Savannah State)
* 66-13 loss against FBS Virginia Tech - does not hurt cause, but does not help

Food for thought...

Evidently you know as little about WCU as I know about Lehigh. Thanks for playing though.

[MTfan4life]

Signature win would place them into the playoffs. The other bubble teams don't have that on their resume. Also, this is a ridiculous what-if. WCU has lost their conference games by an average of 26 points, and their road conference games by an average of over 34 points per game. Saying Lehigh would lose out is far more likely than this scenario. Would they be in if they lost out? I think one more loss is all they can afford.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

1. Anyone who finishes in the top 4 in this SoCon should get consideration.

2. Western is not going to beat App. State in Boone. What on Earth would make you even think that's a possibility? Western has lost to every SoCon team except Elon by double digits.

[asucrutch23]

Signature win would place them into the playoffs. The other bubble teams don't have that on their resume. Also, this is a ridiculous what-if. WCU has lost their conference games by an average of 26 points, and their road conference games by an average of over 34 points per game. Saying Lehigh would lose out is far more likely than this scenario. Would they be in if they lost out? I think one loss is all they can afford.

Yep, would Lehigh be in with a loss to their rival, Lafayette (185 in Sagarin)? This is a much more likely scenario than Western (216 in Sagarin) spoiling App's chances.

[WestCoastAggie]

A stretch this thread is, indeed.

[appfan2008]

2 words: NOT HAPPENING!

[boonegoon]

IF App loses to Western, Jerry Moore declines Playoff invite on principle.

[Reign of Terrier]

Doesn't a hypothetical situation have to be realistic in the first place?

[OL FU]

I woke up this morning and wondered what it would be like to win the lotteryxeekx

[SpeedkingATL]

Any team that loses to WCU should decline an invitation. App lost to a winless VMI team years ago so I never take anything for granted. All I know is the loss to Furman means some road games are in Apps future if they make the playoffs and get as far as the quarters.

[Smitty]

This is one of those games where App wins if they step on the field. We have close games every now and then, but honestly with Wagner leading the team, we currently don't have a snowballs chance in hell to win.

[asumike83]

If we lose at home to Western then we have no business watching the playoffs, much less participating.

ASU has been a completely different team at home this year, we should win handily.

[AppChicago]

I would sure as hell hope it would mean curtains for our playoff chances. I mean, I know it's "any given saturday" and all that, but if we can't handle the kids from the 'Whee, there's no sense waiting until December to end our season.

Fortunately, even the staunchest sandbagger will still probably concede that, even with our little inconsistencies, a W shouldn't be a problem.

[Appaholic]

IF App loses to Western, Jerry Moore declines Playoff invite on principle.

This

[Apphole]

I would commit hari kari

[I-16Bandit]

Who has a better chance at a win?

Georgia Southern at Alabama?

WCU at App?

[youwouldno]

Who has a better chance at a win?

Georgia Southern at Alabama?

WCU at App?

Equal chance.

[Fear the Bird]

Who has a better chance at a win?

Georgia Southern at Alabama?

WCU at App?

Ehhhh I guess you go with WCU b/c any given Saturday doesn't happen to Nick Saban in Tuscaloosa

[boonegoon]

Ehhhh I guess you go with WCU b/c any given Saturday doesn't happen to Nick Saban in Tuscaloosa

WCU has a way better chance. I'd bet GSU doesn't score. Western has proven they can move the ball in this conference, they will score enough on defensive gaffs by the app d to make it more interesting than it should be.

[asucrutch23]

Who has a better chance at a win?

Georgia Southern at Alabama?

WCU at App?

Sagarin's predictor predicts Bama over GSU by 34.63 (with home field factored in)

It predicts App over Western by 23.78.

I'd say Western.

[I-16Bandit]

I'd say Western.

Of course. I wasn't proposing a serious question by any means. :D

[asucrutch23]

How about this. Better chance of happening:

Western over App?
or
App wins 2011 National Championship?

[youwouldno]

Championship, not even close at all. That's at least 10-20 times more likely, even though App isn't one of the favorites.

[I-16Bandit]

C. ) A better chance at a deer jumping through the window at Taco Mac in Atlanta during the Falcons game yesterday.

http://www.11alive.com/rss/article/212058/40/MUST-SEE-VIDEO-Deer-crashes-into-Taco-Mac

:D :D

[asucrutch23]

Championship, not even close at all. That's at least 10-20 times more likely, even though App isn't one of the favorites.

So lets say App is about 15-1 to win the NC (which may be generous to App). You think Western is a 150-1 to 300-1 longshot to win on Saturday?

[youwouldno]

So lets say App is about 15-1 to win the NC (which may be generous to App). You think Western is a 150-1 to 300-1 longshot to win on Saturday?

Yeah definitely. I'm not exaggerating either- I think a bunch of freak occurrences would be necessary for WCU to win, and the odds of that happening are very low.

[asucrutch23]

Yeah definitely. I'm not exaggerating either- I think a bunch of freak occurrences would be necessary for WCU to win, and the odds of that happening are very low.

I agree on the freak occurences, but just for fun:

App is favored (Sagarin) by 24.78 points.
Closest CFB spread I could find was this coming weekend's Wisconsin vs. Minnesota game at -26.5.
5dimes has the moneyline for that game at -5000 (50 to 1).

Let's say the App-Western moneyline is slightly smaller since the spread will probably be closer, so maybe more like 45 to 1.

I don't think it's 10 to 20 times more likely that App wins the NC, but I agree there is a better chance of it than of Western beating App.

There, that's what numbers people do in their spare time! :D xlolx

[Skjellyfetti]

We would get in even with a loss to WCU (if we beat Elon)

[SpeedkingATL]

We would get in even with a loss to WCU (if we beat Elon)

Please, let's not go there!

[SideLine Shooter]

I woke up this morning and wondered what it would be like to win the lotteryxeekx

That's about what beating Michigan was. The night before the game my son asked, "wouldn't it be nice if we beat Michigan on my birthday?" I replied, It would be like winning the lottery, ain't going to happen. Guess what?

[asumike83]

We would get in even with a loss to WCU (if we beat Elon)

Eh, possibly... we certainly would not be deserving of a bid.

Really a moot point though. We've lost 2 FCS games, both on the road to playoff-bound conference opponents. Nothing that has happened this season would lead me to believe that this team is not up to the task of winning out and finishing 8-3, in which case the playoffs will undoubtedly be in our future.

[Eagle22]

1. Anyone who finishes in the top 4 in this SoCon should get consideration.

2. Western is not going to beat App. State in Boone. What on Earth would make you even think that's a possibility? Western has lost to every SoCon team except Elon by double digits.

A winless VMI once won a game late in the season in Boone, so it is not impossible.

But pretty unlikely that Western will pull a win out this season against App.

[Saint3333]

Eagle that is a low blow. 1994, a 0-10 Thomas Haskins led VMI squad marched into Boone and handed an ASU team one win away from a SoCon championship and a top 4 seed a 26-23 OT loss.

This loss ranks solidly in my top five all-time losses as an ASU fan. The majority of our fans don't know what it's like to feel pain like this.

[asumike83]

Eagle that is a low blow. 1994, a 0-10 Thomas Haskins led VMI squad marched into Boone and handed an ASU team one win away from a SoCon championship and a top 4 seed a 26-23 OT loss.

This loss ranks solidly in my top five all-time losses as an ASU fan. The majority of our fans don't know what it's like to feel pain like this.

Missing out on our 7th D-I win and a shot at the playoffs in '04 by losing our last game of the season (in Cullowhee of all places) can't be far behind.

[Block-A]

A winless VMI once won a game late in the season in Boone, so it is not impossible.

Just wanted to make sure this game got mentioned before folks got too deep into talking about what will & won't happen.

[boonegoon]

Just wanted to make sure this game got mentioned before folks got too deep into talking about what will & won't happen.

I remember that one well. I was a senior that year and that was an awful game for an APP fan.

[Saint3333]

Missing out on our 7th D-I win and a shot at the playoffs in '04 by losing our last game of the season (in Cullowhee of all places) can't be far behind.

Not even close in my opinion. The only other regular season loss I could imagine coming close would be the 1975 loss to WCU with a Tangerine Bowl bid on the line. I wasn't a fan until the mid-80's so I didn't get the chance to share is that pain.

[Mountaineer#96]

Not gonna happen........but if it did the last of the fair weather folks from the title years will likely all go back to UNC, Duke, and NC State basketball watching.......

[GSU Eagle]

Who has Western Carolina fired this week?

[Smitty]

Nobody yet actually...

[GSU Eagle]

I will say this-- Western Carolina fans must have unbelieveable patience. It has been a long while since Western came remotely close to competing for a playoff spot. I give all the WCU fans a big thumbs up.

[DSUrocks07]

More likely scenario:

A) WCU beats App in the next three years

B) DSU beats Delaware in the next three years

xsmiley_wix

[MTfan4life]

http://community2.metalreview.com/cfs-file.ashx/__key/CommunityServer.Discussions.Components.Files/8/8666.threadsucks.gif

this

[ASUMountaineer]

If we lose at home to Western then we have no business watching the playoffs, much less participating.

ASU has been a completely different team at home this year, we should win handily.

If this game is a nail-biter on Saturday, you'll hear me utter the words Tar Heel fans have said for a century..."Is it basketball season yet?" xnodx

[boonegoon]

If this game is a nail-biter on Saturday, you'll hear me utter the words Tar Heel fans have said for a century..."Is it basketball season yet?" xnodx

Football season is it for me. I used to like watching basketball but, I can hardly watch a game anymore. At lease the Olympics will be on this winter.

[SpeedkingATL]

Not even close in my opinion. The only other regular season loss I could imagine coming close would be the 1975 loss to WCU with a Tangerine Bowl bid on the line. I wasn't a fan until the mid-80's so I didn't get the chance to share is that pain.

I was a student at the time and remember it all too well. At least WCU had a decent program at the time, nothing like the Whee of the last decade.

[asumike83]

Football season is it for me. I used to like watching basketball but, I can hardly watch a game anymore. At lease the Olympics will be on this winter.

ASU hoops is on the rise. For the first time in about 5 years, I am very excited to see what my Mountaineers can do on the hardwood. Jason Capel has done a good job of recruiting. I've already got my tickets in hand for the ASU/ECU game here in Charlotte, as well as our game with UNC in Chapel Hill. Got my wine and cheese ready for the Dean Dome!

[boonegoon]

ASU hoops is on the rise. For the first time in about 5 years, I am very excited to see what my Mountaineers can do on the hardwood. Jason Capel has done a good job of recruiting. I've already got my tickets in hand for the ASU/ECU game here in Charlotte, as well as our game with UNC in Chapel Hill. Got my wine and cheese ready for the Dean Dome!

App would be the exception to my earlier statement. I follow all App sports on at least a cursory level.

[Rekdiver]

If App loses to Western or Elon it does not belong in the playoffs.

[Skjellyfetti]

If App loses to Western or Elon it does not belong in the playoffs.

Maybe not.

But, we would have a better resume than the other bubble teams. Georgia Southern lost to a 4-7 Samford team last year... a similar record to 4-5 Elon... and they made the semifinals. Not saying we would. But, there are a lot of factors... and one game shouldn't determine your playoff fate.

[WH49er]

Corrected this for you.


If this game is a nail-biter on Saturday, you'll hear me utter the words App fans have said for a century..."Is it Tar Heel basketball season yet?" xnodx

[asumike83]

Corrected this for you.

Considering the number of Tar Heels at UNCC, there is really not much room to criticize there, especially considering basketball is your flagship sport.

[StorminASU]

Corrected this for you.

Why do you all start this crap over and over? Get football, then we'll talk. We don't have UNC stuff worn to our games and we keep hearing that you all don't so drop it.

[GaSouthern]

WCU beating App would be bigger than App beating Michigan.

Sadly, nobody would appreciate it.

[Smitty]

I would be happy about it until I realized that it doesn't mean that we have improved.

[ASUMountaineer]

Corrected this for you.

Clever.

Pot, meet Kettle.

[AppAlum2003]

Wow, you guys just can't wait for ASU to come back to earth, huh?

I guess it's a compliment to be hated.