Who is a lock?

[georgecostanza]

If worst comes to worst, these teams are in even if they lose out.

Sam Houston State
North Dakota State
Montana State
Old Dominion
Montana

Is that correct?

Any other 100% sure bets?

[asucrutch23]

I'd say Georgia Southern is a sure fire lock. They'd be 8-3 if they lose out with 7 D1 wins.

[NoDak 4 Ever]

I think a lot of consideration would be given to Georgia Southern even if they lose out especially if the Wofford game is close. A blowout to Alabama wouldn't be unthinkable.

[asknoquarter21]

Georgia Southern is in

Even if they lose out they should be in

[Spiderbone]

Towson

[DFW HOYA]

Even if Lehigh lost out, 8-3 gets them in.

[FCS Insider]

UNH, Maine, Towson

[Go Apps]

If worst comes to worst, these teams are in even if they lose out.

Sam Houston State
North Dakota State
Montana State
Old Dominion
Montana

Is that correct?

Any other 100% sure bets?

They are all locks

[BisonFan02]

Even if Lehigh lost out, 8-3 gets them in.

I wouldn't be so sure about that. I would take a 7-4 team out of either the MVFC, SoCon, CAA, and Big Sky over an 8-3 team out of the Patriot. With that last "loss" to Lafayette, it would be tough to put them in at that point.

[georgecostanza]

Trying to put together a list with no assumptions. Think in terms of 'if this team doesn't win another game...'

Thanks for the help!

[Fear the Bird]

I wouldn't be so sure about that. I would take a 7-4 team out of either the MVFC, SoCon, CAA, and Big Sky over an 8-3 team out of the Patriot. With that last "loss" to Lafayette, it would be tough to put them in at that point.

An 8-3 Lehigh team has no chance ending its season with losses to GU and Laffy...the debate is whether a 9-2 Lehigh team will get in with a loss to GU and win vs Laffy...I have said all year no but I do believe the way things have shaken out they would get in no problem

[BisonFan02]

An 8-3 Lehigh team has no chance ending its season with losses to GU and Laffy...the debate is whether a 9-2 Lehigh team will get in with a loss to GU and win vs Laffy...I have said all year no but I do believe the way things have shaken out they would get in no problem

I agree a 9-2 Lehigh team gets in with an at large bid (if they were to lose to Georgetown), but if they happened to also lose to Lafayette after losing to Georgetown (finish at 8-3), I would have them on the outside looking in. Do I think that is going to happen, no, but crazier things have happened.

[appfan2008]

Its a bummer to say that with 2 games left ASU is NOT a lock... win one and we SHOULD be in... win both and we ARE in... lose both and not only are we not in we dont have 7 D1 wins...

[danefan]

UNH, Maine, Towson

Agreed. I think the 4 CAA teams are set. JMU might sneak in at 7-4 if something happens to another major-conference at-large candidate.

[JMUNJ08]

If worst comes to worst, these teams are in even if they lose out.

Sam Houston State
North Dakota State
Montana State
Old Dominion
Montana

Is that correct?

Any other 100% sure bets?


UNH, Maine, Towson

The CAA has 4 "IN" right now with L's the rest of the way IMO. Only unknown in the CAA is JMU which must win out so they are no gimme...

[UNIFanSince1983]

It is sad that as the current #4 team in the country we are not currently a lock. If we lose our last two games I think we are out.

[Twentysix]

If worst comes to worst, these teams are in even if they lose out.

Sam Houston State
North Dakota State
Montana State
Old Dominion
Montana

Is that correct?

Any other 100% sure bets?

How is montana a lock? They have 7DI wins like lots of other teams and they dont have any great wins.

They do have a great stadium, but plenty of teams have 7DI wins, I wouldnt put them on my short list.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/149/montana-grizzlies

Not to mention they lost to 3-6 sac st.

Breakdown of montana's schedule:
Teams DI record
@Tenn (4-5) L
vs CP (4-4) W
vs EWU (4-5) w
@Sac st (3-6) L
vs UNC (0-10) W
@ Idaho st (1-7) W
vs PSU (4-3) W
@ NAU (4-5) W
vs Weber(3-6) W

If they cant beat montana state, some other teams deserve to be on a lock list way over this schedule. At 8-2 finish I wouldnt question montana being in. But at 7-3 I certainly would.

[Lakes Bison]

Northern Iowa

[georgecostanza]

Def not an expert. Just figured that a 2nd place Big Sky, 7 win team would be. Is there any way people see them not getting in with a loss to MSU?

[Twentysix]

Def not an expert. Just figured that a 2nd place Big Sky, 7 win team would be. Is there any way people see them not getting in with a loss to MSU?

Depends if their are more deserving teams. If I were to make a list of 5 teams getting in Montana wouldnt currently be on it.

[nwFL Griz]

How is montana a lock? They have 7DI wins like lots of other teams and they dont have any great wins.

They do have a great stadium, but plenty of teams have 7DI wins, I wouldnt put them on my short list.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/149/montana-grizzlies

Not to mention they lost to 3-6 sac st.

Breakdown of montana's schedule:
Teams DI record
@Tenn (4-5) L
vs CP (4-4) W
vs EWU (4-5) w
@Sac st (3-6) L
vs UNC (0-10) W
@ Idaho st (1-7) W
vs PSU (4-3) W
@ NAU (4-5) W
vs Weber(3-6) W

If they cant beat montana state, some other teams deserve to be on a lock list way over this schedule. At 8-2 finish I wouldnt question montana being in. But at 7-3 I certainly would.

Regardless of what you think, Montana is a lock.

[nwFL Griz]

Depends if their are more deserving teams. If I were to make a list of 5 teams getting in Montana wouldnt currently be on it.

Then make your list of teams, right now, that are definitely in.

[Twentysix]

I would put UNH in over Montana if I had to make a top 5 list for the playoffs. Their are a few teams that would tie montana or have a slight edge assuming every team mentioned including montana loses out(this isn't even possible in some cases, UNI @ ISUr),

ISUr(indiana state) UNI(indiana state, youngstown) Maine(@JMU Delaware) Towson(@Maine @ODU) Georgia Southern(Furman) UNH(@lehigh JMU).

What is montana's qaulity win right now? 4-3 psu at home? Or maybe 4-4 CP at home? 4-5 EWU at home?

Now make your list of teams right now, you come off as a defensive ahole btw.

[nwFL Griz]

I would put UNH in over Montana if I had to make a top 5 list for the playoffs. Their are a few teams that would tie montana or have a slight edge assuming every team mentioned including montana loses out(this isn't even possible in some cases, UNI @ ISUr),

ISUr(indiana state) UNI(indiana state, youngstown) Maine(@JMU Delaware) Towson(@Maine @ODU) Georgia Southern(Furman) UNH(@lehigh JMU).

What is montana's qaulity win right now? 4-3 psu at home? Or maybe 4-4 CP at home? 4-5 EWU at home?

Now make your list of teams right now, you come off as a defensive ahole btw.

He wasn't making a top five list. He was asking who is a lock even if they lose out. And like I said, whether you think so or not, Montana is a lock. Here's my locks:

NDSU
SHSU
GaSouth
Mont St
Montana
ODU
UNI
Maine
Towson
UNH

Your obsession with quality win is pretty funny actually. Even more funny than including Indiana St as a quality win....while denigrating Portland St. If you can't see the irony there....

The point is, the Big Sky is one of the power conferences, and any team that finishes second in that league with an 8-3 record (7 DI wins), is in. Unless the year produces a ton of undefeated or 1 loss teams (not this year).

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

He wasn't making a top five list. He was asking who is a lock even if they lose out. And like I said, whether you think so or not, Montana is a lock. Here's my locks:

NDSU
SHSU
GaSouth
Mont St
Montana
ODU
UNI
Maine
Towson
UNH

Your obsession with quality win is pretty funny actually. Even more funny than including Indiana St as a quality win....while denigrating Portland St. If you can't see the irony there....

The point is, the Big Sky is one of the power conferences, and any team that finishes second in that league with an 8-3 record (7 DI wins), is in. Unless the year produces a ton of undefeated or 1 loss teams (not this year).

I'm not sure that Maine, UNH and Towson are a lock at this point. I think a 7-4 CAA team could get in, but I wouldn't call them a lock. That said, since they play each other the next two weeks, two of them are a lock. I just don't know who.

[danefan]

I'm not sure that Maine, UNH and Towson are a lock at this point. I think a 7-4 CAA team could get in, but I wouldn't call them a lock. That said, since they play each other the next two weeks, two of them are a lock. I just don't know who.

Based on the rest of the FCS world I'm not sure if anyone is has the ability to bump Maine, UNH or Towson.

[clenz]

It is sad that as the current #4 team in the country we are not currently a lock. If we lose our last two games I think we are out.

UNI could be ranked #1 right now, and we wouldn't be a lock.....


Remember, only once has UNI gotten into the playoffs without the autobid.

[Gordon Shumway]

I'm not sure that Maine, UNH and Towson are a lock at this point. I think a 7-4 CAA team could get in, but I wouldn't call them a lock. That said, since they play each other the next two weeks, two of them are a lock. I just don't know who.

I agree. Just looking at UNH, losing the next two weeks to Towson & Maine and finishing 7-4 would not make for a very compelling argument to be included. Of course, numerous 7-4 teams will also not have very compelling cases for inclusion.

[344Johnson]

8-3 UNI is in...7-4 UNI however....would have to sweat it out and wait to hear if they got in. I be honest Clenz, I want UNI to lose to ISU-R if only for the sake of getting another MVFC team into the field.

Montana will get in, I think they will merit getting in too. But if they lose to Montana State, which in my humble, uneducated opinion is likely, you could easily make an argument to say they shouldn't get in. Ugly loss to Sac State. a D2 game that doesn't count, and no bigtime wins...it is very easy to see why they couldn't get in. But at the end of the day, they bring in a very good amount of money for the NCAA and for that reason alone, I see them getting in.

[nwFL Griz]

I think you guys are overestimating the amount of teams that will even meet the 7 D1 wins mark. Based on just a cursory glance at the field, to me it is almost a certainty, that if you hit 7 wins in one of the power conferences (CAA, MVFC, SoCon, Big Sky), you are in. What are the alternatives? 2 Patriot teams? 2 MEAC teams?

There just isn't an abundance of 7 D1 win teams out there this year.

[van]

I think you guys are overestimating the amount of teams that will even meet the 7 D1 wins mark. Based on just a cursory glance at the field, to me it is almost a certainty, that if you hit 7 wins in one of the power conferences (CAA, MVFC, SoCon, Big Sky), you are in. What are the alternatives? 2 Patriot teams? 2 MEAC teams?

There just isn't an abundance of 7 D1 win teams out there this year.

Well said! If you study the landscape it is pretty easy to find 18 teams that will be in. The last 2 are a crap shoot, but I would give odds that the last two teams involve a 7-4 record.

[Squealofthepig]

Much of the controversy here is how we're defining "lock"; as of today, I'm with the original poster in that there are a handful of locks (NDSU, SHSU, Montana State) - but I also agree with the posters who are looking ahead as to other teams who should be in.

So, here's an exercise - what games are there out there that could suddenly introduce a few new teams to the mix, either through an unexpected AQ or surprise win? My list here would be:

Georgetown: An upset over Lehigh suddenly has Georgetown in the driver's seat for an AQ, and I think Lehigh has a very realistic shot at being picked as an at-large. This would potentially knock off a 7-4 team from one of the major conferences.

Stony Brook: A win over Liberty and, suddenly, Liberty is on the outside looking in. Does the committee consider a 7-4 Liberty (with one FBS loss)? Probably not, but it's in the conversation.

Southern Utah: Yes, this is a possibility, though a long-shot. SUU has 5 D1 wins (UNLV, Sacramento State, UTSA, Weber State, UC Davis), and has games left at UNI and at NAU. If I'm betting money, I'm betting on UNI taking care of business in the dome and taking this off the table this weekend, but it is still possible. Ironically, this would have the cellar-dweller of the Great West get the only playoff invite.

The committee shows the NEC some love: I don't think this happens, but it's possible both Albany and Duquesne are at least talked about. Personally, I don't think this is a big possibility, but not a lot of other options out there.

Honestly, I think those are the scenarios where new teams enter the mix, and outside of the first one, I don't find any scenario very likely (and the first I still find improbable). So absent any of those, or other upsets, I see the 4/4/4 from CAA/SoCon/MVFC that most others see and two from BSC.

[molly]

Stony Brook: A win over Liberty and, suddenly, Liberty is on the outside looking in. Does the committee consider a 7-4 Liberty (with one FBS loss)? Probably not, but it's in the conversation.


Liberty and Stony Brook each have a sub-DI win, so the winner gets the auto-bid and the loser stays home.

[Tod]

Georgia Southern is in

Even if they lose out they should be in

I don't agree. A lot would depend on what happens elsewhere, but if GSU lost out, they'd have dropped 3 of their last 4 games, only beating The Citadel 14-12 at home.

They would PROBABLY still get in, but not a lock IMHO.

[nwFL Griz]

when you make a comment such as this:

" What are the alternatives? 2 Patriot teams?"

are you saying that a 9-2 highly ranked Lehigh team will not make the playoffs, along with the AQ Georgetown?

are you sure that you want to say this?

No, I spoke out-of-turn there. My assumption was that Lehigh would win the AQ. I do not believe G'town gets in without the AQ.

[georgecostanza]

Does a 9W Duquesne team have a chance at an AL?

[georgecostanza]

Threw this together really quick. Sorry if there are errors.

Tried to pick close games better record / home team.

Champs...
New Hampshire CAA 9 2
Norfolk State MEAC 8 2
North Dakota State MVFC 11 0
Albany NEC 8 3
E. Kentucky OVC 8 3
Lehigh Pat 10 1
Montana State Sky 9 1
Georgia Southern SoCon 8 2
Liberty South 7 3
Sam Houston State Southland 11 0

Sitting pretty....
Old Dominion CAA 9 2
Northern Iowa MVFC 9 2
Maine CAA 8 3
Towson CAA 8 3
Appalachian State SoCon 8 3

Pick the last 5.....
Duquesne NEC 9 2
Georgetown Pat 8 3
Bethune-Cookman MEAC 7 3
Montana Sky 7 3
Wofford SoCon 7 3
Central Arkansas Southland 7 3
James Madison CAA 7 4
Hampton MEAC 7 4
Indiana State MVFC 7 4
Illinois State MVFC 7 4
Jacksonville State OVC 7 4
Murray State OVC 7 4
Bucknell Pat 7 4
Furman SoCon 7 4

[danefan]

Does a 9W Duquesne team have a chance at an AL?

Assuming they don't win the AQ, the only way I see Duquensne getting a chance is if it comes down to an 8 win MEAC or PL team versus Duquesne.

It could come down to Georetown (8-3) vs. Duquesne (9-2). If it does, I think Duquesne gets the nod. Neither would have any real great wins, but Georgetown would have two worse losses IMO (Yale and Bucknell by a much larger margin than Duquesne lost).

But I doubt even that analysis will ever be done.

[Tod]

I would put UNH in over Montana if I had to make a top 5 list for the playoffs. Their are a few teams that would tie montana or have a slight edge assuming every team mentioned including montana loses out(this isn't even possible in some cases, UNI @ ISUr),

ISUr(indiana state) UNI(indiana state, youngstown) Maine(@JMU Delaware) Towson(@Maine @ODU) Georgia Southern(Furman) UNH(@lehigh JMU).

What is montana's qaulity win right now? 4-3 psu at home? Or maybe 4-4 CP at home? 4-5 EWU at home?

Now make your list of teams right now, you come off as a defensive ahole btw.

Montana is a lock. Oh, and PSU ranks higher on the GPI than Youngstown and JMU, not too far behind ISUb.

Edit: PSU is higher in the GPI than Delaware, too.

Edit 2: Cal Poly is higher in the GPI than Delaware as well, at #25.

Guess I submitted this post before finishing.

[Professor Chaos]

Pick the last 5.....
Duquesne NEC 9 2
Georgetown Pat 8 3
Bethune-Cookman MEAC 7 3
Montana Sky 7 3
Wofford SoCon 7 3
Central Arkansas Southland 7 3
James Madison CAA 7 4
Hampton MEAC 7 4
Indiana State MVFC 7 4
Illinois State MVFC 7 4
Jacksonville State OVC 7 4
Murray State OVC 7 4
Bucknell Pat 7 4
Furman SoCon 7 4
That's who I got. With JMU and ISU-B being barely left out.

[nwFL Griz]

Montana is a lock. Oh, and PSU ranks higher on the GPI than Youngstown and JMU, not too far behind ISUb.

Edit: PSU is higher in the GPI than Delaware, too.

Might be the first time you and I have agreed on anything.

[nwFL Griz]

That's who I got. With JMU and ISU-B being barely left out.

+1

[Tod]

Might be the first time you and I have agreed on anything.

Edited a second time. Cal Poly is ranked #25 in the GPI, ahead of Delaware and only one behind JMU. The east coast bias is amazing.

BTW, I don't remember disagreeing with you before on anything, unless you're referring back to the old political arguments, maybe?

[Reign of Terrier]

purely based on your scenario, 3 of the last 5 would be

Montana
Wofford
Furman

so now we would need to chose 2 from the following from your list:

Duquesne NEC 9 2
Georgetown Pat 8 3
Bethune-Cookman MEAC 7 3
Central Arkansas Southland 7 3
James Madison CAA 7 4
Hampton MEAC 7 4
Indiana State MVFC 7 4
Illinois State MVFC 7 4
Jacksonville State OVC 7 4
Murray State OVC 7 4
Bucknell Pat 7 4

James Madison and Central Arkansas

[nwFL Griz]

Edited a second time. Cal Poly is ranked #25 in the GPI, ahead of Delaware and only one behind JMU. The east coast bias is amazing.

BTW, I don't remember disagreeing with you before on anything, unless you're referring back to the old political arguments, maybe?

Yep. Haven't really had any other conversation outside of that. (That I can remember)

[Tod]

I don't agree. A lot would depend on what happens elsewhere, but if GSU lost out, they'd have dropped 3 of their last 4 games, only beating The Citadel 14-12 at home.

They would PROBABLY still get in, but not a lock IMHO.

Not that anybody has called me out on this statement, but I'm taking it back anyway. GSU is a lock, IMO

[Twentysix]

He wasn't making a top five list. He was asking who is a lock even if they lose out. And like I said, whether you think so or not, Montana is a lock. Here's my locks:

NDSU
SHSU
GaSouth
Mont St
Montana
ODU
UNI
Maine
Towson
UNH

Your obsession with quality win is pretty funny actually. Even more funny than including Indiana St as a quality win....while denigrating Portland St. If you can't see the irony there....

The point is, the Big Sky is one of the power conferences, and any team that finishes second in that league with an 8-3 record (7 DI wins), is in. Unless the year produces a ton of undefeated or 1 loss teams (not this year).

Haha you are funny, you are obviously wrong then post something contrary to what you orginally quoted


Depends if their are more deserving teams. If I were to make a list of 5 teams getting in Montana wouldnt currently be on it.

Classic.

[Engineer86]

Am I missing something? Can PSU even get to 7 wins? Is Southern Oregon an FCS team? If not I count 6, so any debate is over there.

[Twentysix]

PSU has 4 wins. They only play 9 games this season.

Southern Oregon(DII) and Williamette(DIII) do not count in this discussion.

[nwFL Griz]

Haha you are funny, you are obviously wrong then post something contrary to what you orginally quoted



Classic.

I wasn't referring to you when I said "he wasn't..." I was referring to the original poster. Your reading comprehension is awful. If I meant you, why would I say he, when I quoted your post?

So, allow me to revise.

"The original poster wasn't making a top five list. He was asking who is a lock even if they lose out. And like I said, whether you think so or not, Montana is a lock. Here's my locks:"

[Twentysix]

Since you clearly cant remeber what you wrote

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?99356-Who-is-a-lock&p=1717276&viewfull=1#post1717276

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?99356-Who-is-a-lock&p=1717292&viewfull=1#post1717292

And now for the post that is not in tune with the previous post and quote

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?99356-Who-is-a-lock&p=1717842&viewfull=1#post1717842

Nice try though.

[nwFL Griz]

Since you clearly cant remeber what you wrote

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?99356-Who-is-a-lock&p=1717276&viewfull=1#post1717276

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?99356-Who-is-a-lock&p=1717292&viewfull=1#post1717292

And now for the post that is not in tune with the previous post and quote

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?99356-Who-is-a-lock&p=1717842&viewfull=1#post1717842

Nice try though.

I totally disregarded the part in the second link where you said your thing about list of 5. The discussion was about the locks in now, and that was what I expected when I asked you to post your list, not the 5 most deserving in your opinion.

Besides why would you pick a random number like 5? Are they only giving out 5 at-larges this year?

[Twentysix]

I totally disregarded the part in the second link where you said your thing about list of 5. The discussion was about the locks in now, and that was what I expected when I asked you to post your list, not the 5 most deserving in your opinion.

Besides why would you pick a random number like 5? Are they only giving out 5 at-larges this year?

Because the OP had 5 teams.

[nwFL Griz]

Because the OP had 5 teams.

But he clearly wasn't limiting it to just five, hence why he asked if there were any others.

Doesn't change that the fact that win or lose vs. MSU, Montana is in the field of 20.

[hawkineer]

Even if Lehigh lost out, 8-3 gets them in.
9-2 LU is in. 8-3 LU is out and rightfully so.

[blackfordpu]

There is no debating the Kats getting into the playoffs. They have secured the AQ from the Southland.

[ngineer]

Even if Lehigh lost out, 8-3 gets them in.

I wouldn't call us a 'lock' at 8-3. I think we'd have a fair chance of still getting an at-large, but I wouldn't bet on more than a 66% chance.

[georgecostanza]

Ticket punched:
Sam Houston State (Southland)
Lehigh (Patriot)
Georgia Southern (SoCon)
Norfolk State (MEAC)

IN:
North Dakota State (9 D1 wins, FBS win)
Old Dominion (9 D1 wins)
Montana State (8 D1 wins)
Towson (8 D1 wins)
Maine (8 D1 wins)

[andy7171]

Towsn, ODU.

Preseason #10 and 11. LMAO

[UIWWildthing]

Towsn, ODU.

Preseason #10 and 11. LMAO
From worst to first!!

[AppMAN04]

Ticket punched:
Sam Houston State (Southland)
Lehigh (Patriot)
Georgia Southern (SoCon)
Norfolk State (MEAC)

IN:
North Dakota State (9 D1 wins, FBS win)
Old Dominion (9 D1 wins)
Montana State (8 D1 wins)
Towson (8 D1 wins)
Maine (8 D1 wins)

ASU is in also... just sayin

We may get one home game and then we are on the road unless we get some upsets or get booted

[georgecostanza]

Ticket punched:
Sam Houston State (Southland)
Lehigh (Patriot)
Georgia Southern (SoCon)
Norfolk State (MEAC)

IN:
North Dakota State (9 D1 wins, FBS win)
Old Dominion (9 D1 wins)
Montana State (8 D1 wins)
Towson (8 D1 wins)
Maine (8 D1 wins)
Northern Iowa (8 D1 wins)