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Go Apps
November 7th, 2011, 07:17 AM
Here are a few clarifications for the playoff field of 20: The Ivy League does not participate in the playoffs- The SWAC will send its division champions to the SWAC title game. Assume a team must also reach 7 D1 wins to be eligible.for an at large. ALSO there are teams with still a chance of winning their Autobid but I have not listed due to upcoming schedule, will add as necessary.

FCS teams that can still entertain realistic playoff hopes. Schools are ranked by their chances of making the playoffs.. Current overall and conference records are in parentheses, and each team’s remaining schedule is listed with a brief synopsis of its chances. The adds of AQ means they got the Autobid or IN means I believe they have already made the field,regardless of how they finish. The rank below is based on being in the playoffs not where I believe they will be seated.

1. North Dakota State (9-0, 6-0 MVC)
The Games: Young State, at W. Illinois

Outlook: IN The Bison are in and in control of the top seed!

2. Montana State (9-1, 6-1 Big Sky)
The Games: Montana

Outlook: IN Only Montana is a road block to a top seed for the Bobcats

3. Ga Southern (8-1, 6-1 Southern)
The Games: at Wofford, at Alabama

Outlook: IN GSU lost some control but a win over Wofford will keep them alive for a top seed

4. Montana (8-2, 6-1 Big Sky)
The Games: at Montana State

Outlook:IN The Grizzles are now looking at the showdown with Montana State a win gives them the AB.

5. Wofford (7-2, 5-1 Southern)
The Games: GSU, at UTC

Outlook: IN Terriers needs one more win – 2 gives them the autobid and a top seed

6. Northern Iowa (7-2, 6-1 MVC)
The Games: S. Utah, at Ill State

Outlook: IN No longer in control of the autobid and now a tough schedule remains, needs two more wins to erase any doubt - but I have them in regardless.

7. Old Dominion (8-2, 5-2 CAA)
The Games: at W&M

Outlook: IN ODU grabs their first postseason spot!

8. Sam Houston State IN (9-0, 6-0 Southland)
The Games: at N’wstern State, at Texas State

Outlook: Have the easiest schedule remaining – an undefeated season and a top seed is possible

9. Lehigh (8-1, 3-0 Patriot)
The Games: Georgetown, Lafayette

Outlook: On a roll and should get the autobid –doubtful on a seed

10. Liberty (7-3, 5-0 Big South)
The Games: at Stony Brook

Outlook: In the drivers seat for the AB, a loss to SB could change everything and could eliminate them from the playoffs

11. Albany (6-3, 5-1 NEC)
The Games: at Monmouth, Sacred Heart

Outlook: Trouble ahead for Albany a loss this weekend has them in a must win to clinch the AB…

12. Norfolk State (8-2. 6-1 MEAC)
The Games: at Morgan State

Outlook: Needs to keep winning to secure Autobid , a loss would put them in a logjam

13. New Hampshire (7-2, 5-1 CAA)
The Games: at Towson, Maine

Outlook: What an exciting last two weeks – they need just one more win to secure a postseason berth.

14. Towson (7-2, 5-1 CAA)
The Games: N. Hampshire, at R. Island

Outlook: Needs to win out but a tough test this weekend – at least one more victory gives them a playoff berth

15. Maine (7-2, 5-1 CAA)
The Games: UMass, at N. Hampshire

Outlook: The CAA is turned upside down and now a 3 way tie at the top – hard to say who will finish where at this point? – one more win sends them to the postseason.

16. Appalachian State (6-3, 4-2 Southern)
The Games: WCU, at Elon

Outlook: Stunning loss at Furman took the Apps from a top 4 seed to needing a win fast – just one more will secure a postseason berth – two keeps them from playing on Thanksgiving. - erractic play has returned at the wrong time and Jackson is not looking very good as of late - can you say Pressley?

17. Furman (6-3, 5-2 Southern)
The Games: Elon, at Florida

Outlook: The Socon could be the premier conference this year – Furman did what they had to do a win over Elon guarentees a playoff bid they could still win the AB…by all looks they will be practicing on Turkey day and should host a first round game.

18. Illinois State (7-3, 5-2 MVC)
The Games: N. Iowa

Outlook: MUST WIN and they are in – four losses could still have then in as they are from a strong conference.

19. Eastern Kentucky (6-3, 5-1 OVC)
The Games: Tenn Tech, UT Martin

Outlook: Starting to emerge as the top team in the OVC – must keep winning this is a one bid league

20. Central Arkansas (7-3, 6-1 Southland)
The Games: Texas State

Outlook: Still alive but must keep winning to have a shot at the playoffs.

21. Indiana State (5-4, 3-3 MVC)
The Games: at MO State, S. Illinois

Outlook: Very much in the hunt and a strong schedule with 4 losses they will be hard to leave out.

22. Stony Brook (6-3, 4-0 Big South)
The Games: at Gardner Webb, Liberty

Outlook: Win out and they are in – all they have to do now is just beat Liberty.

23. James Madison (5-4, 3-3 CAA)
The Games: R. Island, at UMASS

Outlook: JMU continues to drop and I see a loss which means they will be eliminated

24. UT Martin (5-4, 4-2 OVC)
The Games: at Tenn St., at EKU

Outlook: Martin needs EKU to win this weekend and they need to win out to be in the AB mix..but a lot of scenarios left

25. Dusquene (7-2, 5-1 NEC)
The Games: at Sacred Heart, Robert Morris

Outlook: Needs to win out and have Albany lose and they would grab the AB.

26. Morgan State (5-4, 4-2 MEAC)
The Games: Norfolk State, Hampton

Outlook: Showdown is on this weekend – if they have any hope they must win out..

27. Tennessee Tech (5-3, 4-2 OVC)
The Games: at EKU, Austin Peay

Outlook: Must win out, but what a tough schedule the game at EKU looms large

28. Youngstown State (5-4, 3-3 MVC)
The Games: at NDSU, MO State

Outlook: Still alive but must win their last two - but I don’t see them making it.

29. Georgetown (8-2, 4-1 Patriot)
The Games: at Lehigh

Outlook: If they beat Lehigh they will burst someone’s bubble around the country and grab the Autobid – that will likely be from the MVC or Southland if it happens.

30. Jacksonville State (5-4, 4-2 OVC)
The Games: at SEMOSt, at Tenn State

Outlook: What happened - things are not looking so good and a surging EKU team is next – another loss would likely end Jax State’s post season’s aspirations.

31. SC State, Bethune, Fla A&M, Hampton (MEAC)

Outlook: All of these teams are still alive for the moment…


Below are my current projections for the I-AA playoff field.

Automatic Bids:
Patriot: Lehigh CAA: Towson
Big Sky: Montana State Southland: Sam Houston State
Southern: GSU MVC: NDSU
MEAC: Norfolk State OVC: EKU
Big South: Liberty NEC: Albany

At-large:
GSU, ASU, Furman, N. Hamp, Montana, Maine, Ill St, C. Ark, ODU, N. Iowa

Seeds: Wofford, Montana State, Towson, Sam Houston State, NDSU
Last In: N. Hampshire, C Arkansas
Last Out: Indiana State, Tenn Tech, UTC, JMU


Bracket I:
Norfolk State @ Liberty winner at No. 1 NDSU
N. Iowa @ Montana

Albany @ N. Hampshire winner at No. 4 GSU
Lehigh @ No. 5 Towson

Bracket II:
EKU @ Furman winner at No. 3 Sam Houston State
ODU @ ASU

C. Arkansas @ Ill State winner at No. 2 Montana State
Wofford @ Maine

BEAR
November 7th, 2011, 08:02 AM
20. Central Arkansas (7-3, 6-1 Southland)
The Games: Texas State

Outlook: Still alive but must keep winning to have a shot at the playoffs.

Only one game left vs Texas State due to NO by week, 2 FBS teams and one DII team.

eaglewraith
November 7th, 2011, 08:13 AM
You've got GSU listed as the autobid and an at large. I'm guessing you meant Wofford as an at large.

However I'd love to see UNH back in Paulson. I've been wanting revenge for that 2004 loss. That was the most miserable I've ever been during a football game.

Go Apps
November 7th, 2011, 08:15 AM
You've got GSU listed as the autobid and an at large. I'm guessing you meant Wofford as an at large.

However I'd love to see UNH back in Paulson. I've been wanting revenge for that 2004 loss. That was the most miserable I've ever been during a football game.

You are right sorry fixed it! -

Hey I want to see Furman again this year!!!!! And Wofford As Well!!! - Not GSU:))

UIWWildthing
November 7th, 2011, 08:45 AM
14. Towson (7-2, 5-1 CAA)
The Games: N. Hampshire, at R. Island

Outlook: Needs to win out but a tough test this weekend – at least one more victory gives them a playoff berth


In your opinion, Towson hasn't done enough to clinch a spot yet? Also, would a week this week over UNH seal a spot, rather than winning out?

TexasTerror
November 7th, 2011, 08:54 AM
Schools are ranked by their chances of making the playoffs

Shouldn't SHSU be #1? We've already become the first team in the nation to get an automatic qualifier! :)

I think our chances are BETTER than anyone in the nation, including NDSU!

Go Apps
November 7th, 2011, 10:45 AM
In your opinion, Towson hasn't done enough to clinch a spot yet? Also, would a week this week over UNH seal a spot, rather than winning out?

Yes it would since there are a potential of 5 teams in the CAA - I just can't predict a yes at the moment - but any 8 win team from the CAA is definitely in the field!

Go Apps
November 7th, 2011, 10:47 AM
Shouldn't SHSU be #1? We've already become the first team in the nation to get an automatic qualifier! :)

I think our chances are BETTER than anyone in the nation, including NDSU!

Sure but after sorting out the teams that are in I start ranking them based on what might happen to finish the season and seating - if they keep winning you will see them near the top - as you saw in my bracket I am projecting them to be a #3 seed - but they are from a weaker conference so just need some games to occur to strenghten what I project but yes you are a solid in!

MTfan4life
November 7th, 2011, 10:53 AM
Jacksonville State is #25 and #31

Go Apps
November 7th, 2011, 11:01 AM
Jacksonville State is #25 and #31

Fixed!

asknoquarter21
November 7th, 2011, 11:32 AM
Love your bracket

Hope it works out like that

TexasTerror
November 7th, 2011, 11:50 AM
Sure but after sorting out the teams that are in I start ranking them based on what might happen to finish the season and seating - if they keep winning you will see them near the top - as you saw in my bracket I am projecting them to be a #3 seed - but they are from a weaker conference so just need some games to occur to strenghten what I project but yes you are a solid in!

Gotcha!

SHSU needs to win the last two to be seeded. If they drop one, they'll need some help nationally... no worse than No. 3 if they go undefeated. They'll be a #5 at best if they drop one.

appfan2008
November 7th, 2011, 11:52 AM
what a difference a game makes!

Go Apps
November 7th, 2011, 11:53 AM
Love your bracket

Hope it works out like that

Yes the only thing in that bracket that looks off is the Montana Matchup with N . Iowa because both can bring $$ to the table the split could be Wofford and Maine and Wofford heading to Montana in the bottom bracket while Maine will head to N. Iowa but here is another I had that might work out below- personally if this or the other bracket plays out I like the possibility of getting Furman and Wofford again - not sure I want to tangle with GSU right now...

Bracket I:
Norfolk State @ Liberty winner at No. 1 NDSU
N. Iowa @ Montana

Albany @ N. Hampshire winner at No. 4 GSU
Lehigh @ No. 5 Towson

Bracket II:
EKU @ Furman winner at No. 2 Sam Houston State
ODU @ ASU

C. Arkansas @ Ill State winner at No. 3 Montana State
Wofford @ Maine

Go Apps
November 7th, 2011, 05:13 PM
what a difference a game makes!

You are not kidding!!!

Go Apps
November 8th, 2011, 06:28 AM
Gotcha!

SHSU needs to win the last two to be seeded. If they drop one, they'll need some help nationally... no worse than No. 3 if they go undefeated. They'll be a #5 at best if they drop one.

!!

katstrapper
November 8th, 2011, 09:30 AM
8. Sam Houston State IN (9-0, 6-0 Southland)
The Games: at N’wstern State, at Texas State

Outlook: Have the easiest schedule remaining – an undefeated season and a top seed is possible



The game against NW State is in Huntsville not on the road. Also, this game is being televised on the Southland Conference Network so this is a good opportunity for all the SHSU naysayers to get a look at this team. Should also be on ESPN3. And I dont even think if SHSU ended up the only undefeated team that they would be a #1 seed.

Go Apps
November 8th, 2011, 09:55 AM
The game against NW State is in Huntsville not on the road. Also, this game is being televised on the Southland Conference Network so this is a good opportunity for all the SHSU naysayers to get a look at this team. Should also be on ESPN3. And I dont even think if SHSU ended up the only undefeated team that they would be a #1 seed.

It is possible right now they need to win out and have Montana State lose - perhaps they could grab the #2 seed - but one loss will send them out of the top 5 seeds - based on their GPI for the conference - the win over the FBS is big though

Spiderbone
November 8th, 2011, 10:07 AM
If ODU goes 9-2 which is very likely having only W&M next week, I think they will end up with a home game first round. They sell out every game, in a large stadium. The minimum bid is $30K to get a game and the AD was on the radio recently saying they are going to bid SIGNIFICANTLY higher than that to get their first home playoff game ever. I don't see ASU at potentially 7-4 hosting a 9-2 ODU team that may end up with a share of the CAA title. In fact, if anything ODU would be hosting ASU.

katstrapper
November 8th, 2011, 10:08 AM
It is possible right now they need to win out and have Montana State lose - perhaps they could grab the #2 seed - but one loss will send them out of the top 5 seeds - based on their GPI for the conference - the win over the FBS is big though

Actually, I think the win over New Mexico does NOTHING for SHSU just because that program is pitiful. And if SHSU does end up losing a game, I agree they wont be a top 5 seed. The FCS world is just licking their chops at the chance SHSU loses a game.

Engineer86
November 8th, 2011, 10:46 AM
Actually, I think the win over New Mexico does NOTHING for SHSU just because that program is pitiful. And if SHSU does end up losing a game, I agree they wont be a top 5 seed. The FCS world is just licking their chops at the chance SHSU loses a game.

Thank you for some realism on that FBS win. I think. If you guys get upset, you will take a big hit, but no one can argue the outcome on the field. At least we have the playoffs and once the sites and seeds are set, the debating can stop

MSUBobcat
November 8th, 2011, 10:49 AM
Automatic Bids:
Patriot: Lehigh CAA: Towson
Big Sky: Montana State Southland: Sam Houston State
Southern: GSU MVC: NDSU
MEAC: Norfolk State OVC: EKU
Big South: Liberty NEC: Albany

At-large:
GSU, ASU, Furman, N. Hamp, Montana, Maine, Ill St, C. Ark, ODU, N. Iowa

Seeds: Wofford, Montana State, Towson, Sam Houston State, NDSU
Last In: N. Hampshire, C Arkansas
Last Out: Indiana State, Tenn Tech, UTC, JMU


Bracket I:
Norfolk State @ Liberty winner at No. 1 NDSU
N. Iowa @ Montana

Albany @ N. Hampshire winner at No. 4 GSU
Lehigh @ No. 5 Towson

Bracket II:
EKU @ Furman winner at No. 3 Sam Houston State
ODU @ ASU

C. Arkansas @ Ill State winner at No. 2 Montana State
Wofford @ Maine

I know this has been mentioned already, but there is still some conflict in the SoCon. It shows GSU as the AQ and an at-large, with Wofford listed as a seed, but GSU is the seed in your bracket. The bracket looks pretty reasonable as it is set up though.

Also, thanks for summarizing the teams still in the hunt. One minor note - Montana State is 7-0 in conference. It's that other school in MT that didn't make it to the Brawl undefeated in the Big Sky. :D