Sagarin Through Week 10

[No_Skill]

College Football 2011 through games of November 5 Saturday the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here
HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.55 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR

41 North Dakota State AA = 75.90 9 0 54.67( 155) 0 0 | 0 0 | 80.03 26 | 71.75 59
60 Northern Iowa AA = 70.91 7 2 57.53( 137) 0 0 | 0 0 | 72.21 55 | 68.81 74
72 Montana State AA = 68.75 9 1 54.65( 156) 0 0 | 0 0 | 70.11 63 | 66.58 80
84 Georgia Southern AA = 65.59 8 1 52.69( 168) 0 0 | 0 0 | 64.14 88 | 66.18 82
85 Sam Houston State AA = 65.42 9 0 43.36( 208) 0 0 | 0 0 | 64.08 89 | 65.90 84
90 Wofford AA = 64.78 7 2 55.32( 146) 0 0 | 0 1 | 63.19 93 | 65.53 86
91 Montana AA = 64.26 8 2 54.95( 152) 0 0 | 0 0 | 63.46 91 | 64.19 90
101 Indiana State AA = 62.73 5 4 61.81( 115) 0 0 | 0 1 | 65.71 83 | 58.99 119
105 Appalachian State AA = 61.74 6 3 57.55( 136) 0 0 | 0 1 | 62.21 100 | 60.39 106
106 Illinois State AA = 61.67 7 3 52.89( 166) 0 0 | 0 0 | 60.30 113 | 62.18 101
107 Maine AA = 61.44 7 2 53.71( 162) 0 0 | 0 0 | 63.18 94 | 58.84 120
111 Furman AA = 60.92 6 3 55.24( 149) 0 0 | 0 0 | 59.45 120 | 61.50 103
112 Portland State AA = 60.80 6 3 60.19( 127) 0 0 | 0 0 | 61.98 102 | 58.75 121
113 Southern Utah AA = 60.79 5 4 55.17( 150) 0 0 | 0 0 | 56.73 135 | 64.06 93
114 Cal Poly-SLO AA = 60.69 5 4 61.73( 120) 0 0 | 0 0 | 60.86 107 | 59.62 114
115 Towson AA = 60.60 7 2 51.90( 171) 0 0 | 0 0 | 63.16 95 | 57.20 126
117 Chattanooga AA = 60.29 5 5 57.10( 138) 0 0 | 0 1 | 55.68 137 | 64.13 92
118 New Hampshire AA = 60.12 7 2 54.47( 158) 0 0 | 0 0 | 63.77 90 | 55.65 140
119 Lehigh AA = 59.81 8 1 45.77( 200) 0 0 | 0 0 | 59.61 118 | 59.12 118
121 Harvard AA = 59.51 7 1 43.33( 210) 0 0 | 0 0 | 57.92 130 | 60.22 107
122 Youngstown State AA = 59.39 5 4 53.87( 161) 0 0 | 0 1 | 57.93 129 | 59.97 110
123 Brown AA = 58.94 7 1 48.23( 187) 0 0 | 0 0 | 60.52 111 | 56.48 130
124 Old Dominion AA = 58.69 8 2 49.75( 182) 0 0 | 0 0 | 60.68 110 | 55.81 138
125 South Dakota AA = 58.41 5 4 63.73( 108) 0 0 | 0 1 | 59.34 122 | 56.59 129
128 Eastern Washington AA = 57.91 4 5 59.55( 131) 0 0 | 0 0 | 57.42 133 | 57.51 125
134 Delaware AA = 57.47 5 4 55.29( 147) 0 0 | 0 0 | 57.88 132 | 56.18 133
137 James Madison AA = 56.75 5 4 54.83( 153) 0 0 | 0 0 | 59.04 124 | 53.53 149
138 Central Arkansas AA = 56.53 7 3 51.32( 173) 0 0 | 0 0 | 58.07 128 | 54.08 147
139 North Dakota AA = 56.05 6 3 55.88( 145) 0 0 | 0 0 | 54.51 144 | 56.68 128
140 Liberty AA = 55.36 7 3 44.63( 202) 0 0 | 0 0 | 54.44 145 | 55.38 141
141 South Dakota State AA = 55.31 4 6 62.55( 111) 0 0 | 0 0 | 58.95 125 | 50.60 163
142 Stony Brook AA = 55.28 6 3 46.76( 195) 0 0 | 0 0 | 53.67 148 | 55.99 136
143 Samford AA = 55.01 5 4 55.28( 148) 0 0 | 0 0 | 55.45 140 | 53.67 148
145 UC Davis AA = 54.95 3 6 61.30( 121) 0 0 | 0 1 | 55.52 139 | 53.48 150
146 Sacramento State AA = 54.78 3 6 59.25( 132) 0 0 | 0 0 | 52.97 153 | 55.67 139
147 Eastern Kentucky AA = 54.71 6 3 49.68( 184) 0 0 | 0 1 | 51.38 161 | 57.04 127
148 Massachusetts AA = 54.71 5 4 53.21( 165) 0 0 | 0 0 | 57.11 134 | 51.33 159
149 Northern Arizona AA = 54.67 4 5 57.78( 135) 0 0 | 0 0 | 53.15 151 | 55.28 142
151 Citadel AA = 54.29 4 5 53.54( 163) 0 0 | 0 0 | 51.52 159 | 56.08 134
152 Weber State AA = 54.03 3 6 58.43( 133) 0 0 | 0 0 | 51.16 162 | 55.92 137
155 Rhode Island AA = 52.45 3 6 57.08( 139) 0 0 | 0 0 | 54.72 142 | 49.17 167
156 Holy Cross AA = 51.89 4 5 52.72( 167) 0 0 | 0 0 | 52.20 156 | 50.68 162
157 Georgetown AA = 51.48 8 2 40.73( 222) 0 0 | 0 0 | 51.79 158 | 50.28 164
158 Murray State AA = 51.40 5 4 47.74( 190) 0 0 | 0 0 | 46.51 184 | 54.94 144
159 Northwestern State AA = 51.21 5 4 49.77( 180) 0 1 | 0 1 | 48.61 167 | 52.79 153
160 Norfolk State AA = 50.82 8 2 40.94( 217) 0 0 | 0 0 | 51.81 157 | 48.90 171
161 William & Mary AA = 50.81 4 5 55.15( 151) 0 0 | 0 0 | 54.05 146 | 46.34 179
162 Jacksonville State AA = 50.26 5 4 49.77( 181) 0 0 | 0 0 | 48.21 170 | 51.33 158
163 Tennessee Tech AA = 50.18 5 3 49.84( 179) 0 0 | 0 0 | 47.78 172 | 51.57 156
164 SC State AA = 50.15 5 4 44.52( 203) 0 0 | 0 0 | 48.39 169 | 50.95 161
165 Southern Illinois AA = 50.03 2 7 57.81( 134) 0 0 | 0 0 | 47.52 177 | 51.50 157
166 Richmond AA = 49.95 3 6 54.17( 159) 0 0 | 0 0 | 52.54 155 | 46.22 180
168 Stephen F. Austin AA = 49.82 4 5 53.89( 160) 0 0 | 0 1 | 47.38 178 | 51.23 160
169 Bethune-Cookman AA = 49.38 6 3 44.14( 204) 0 0 | 0 0 | 48.73 166 | 49.12 168
170 Tennessee-Martin AA = 49.33 5 4 48.30( 186) 0 0 | 0 0 | 45.56 190 | 51.86 155
172 Drake AA = 48.76 8 2 39.90( 227) 0 0 | 0 0 | 47.70 173 | 48.91 170
174 South Alabama AA = 48.38 6 3 45.86( 198) 0 0 | 0 0 | 47.03 181 | 48.80 172
175 Elon AA = 47.98 4 5 56.34( 144) 0 0 | 0 0 | 49.91 165 | 44.98 186
176 Bucknell AA = 47.93 5 4 47.05( 193) 0 0 | 0 0 | 48.54 168 | 46.40 178
177 Missouri State AA = 47.81 1 8 65.17( 98) 0 2 | 0 2 | 46.98 182 | 47.73 173
178 Jacksonville AA = 47.60 6 3 39.26( 230) 0 0 | 0 0 | 45.24 191 | 48.93 169
179 Coastal Carolina AA = 47.45 5 4 50.76( 176) 0 0 | 0 1 | 51.06 163 | 42.30 199
180 Tennessee State AA = 47.33 4 5 47.51( 191) 0 0 | 0 0 | 43.66 199 | 49.72 166
181 Yale AA = 47.18 4 4 46.14( 196) 0 0 | 0 0 | 46.40 186 | 47.06 176
182 Duquesne AA = 46.63 7 2 37.09( 237) 0 0 | 0 0 | 45.00 193 | 47.30 174
183 Albany-NY AA = 46.44 6 3 38.12( 235) 0 0 | 0 0 | 41.31 209 | 49.87 165
184 Texas State AA = 46.13 6 4 46.92( 194) 0 0 | 0 0 | 47.58 175 | 43.67 191
185 Lafayette AA = 45.98 4 5 49.56( 185) 0 0 | 0 0 | 47.52 176 | 43.40 194
186 Western Illinois AA = 45.87 2 7 61.77( 116) 0 0 | 0 1 | 47.63 174 | 43.04 197
187 McNeese State AA = 45.84 4 5 51.35( 172) 0 0 | 0 0 | 46.10 187 | 44.69 187
188 Alabama State AA = 45.84 7 2 35.65( 239) 0 0 | 0 0 | 47.11 180 | 43.57 192
190 Presbyterian College AA = 45.45 2 7 59.62( 130) 0 0 | 0 0 | 46.77 183 | 43.13 196
191 San Diego AA = 45.16 7 2 37.90( 236) 0 0 | 0 0 | 45.64 188 | 43.77 189
192 Florida A&M AA = 45.12 6 3 40.43( 224) 0 0 | 0 0 | 46.42 185 | 42.82 198
193 Villanova AA = 45.04 2 8 56.43( 142) 0 0 | 0 0 | 48.05 171 | 40.61 203
194 Bryant AA = 45.00 6 3 42.43( 213) 0 0 | 0 0 | 42.14 206 | 46.70 177
197 Cornell AA = 43.50 3 5 44.87( 201) 0 0 | 0 0 | 40.80 210 | 45.03 185
198 Jackson State AA = 43.43 7 2 34.25( 245) 0 0 | 0 0 | 42.64 205 | 43.31 195
199 NC A&T AA = 43.41 4 5 46.03( 197) 0 0 | 0 0 | 44.94 194 | 40.82 202
200 Eastern Illinois AA = 43.36 2 8 50.62( 178) 0 0 | 0 0 | 39.79 217 | 45.56 184
201 Texas-San Antonio AA = 43.34 3 5 54.83( 154) 0 0 | 0 0 | 41.51 207 | 44.16 188
202 Pennsylvania AA = 42.86 5 3 39.77( 228) 0 0 | 0 0 | 44.26 196 | 40.42 204
203 Hampton AA = 42.78 5 4 40.92( 218) 0 0 | 0 0 | 45.10 192 | 39.18 210
204 Gardner-Webb AA = 42.58 4 5 54.61( 157) 0 0 | 0 0 | 47.33 179 | 35.10 219
205 Colgate AA = 42.32 4 6 47.94( 189) 0 0 | 0 0 | 43.81 197 | 39.77 206
206 Campbell AA = 42.10 6 3 40.40( 225) 0 0 | 0 0 | 43.74 198 | 39.36 208
207 Idaho State AA = 41.72 2 7 60.81( 123) 0 0 | 0 0 | 43.16 202 | 39.21 209
208 Howard AA = 40.67 5 5 45.84( 199) 0 0 | 0 0 | 45.61 189 | 32.46 227
209 Monmouth-NJ AA = 40.64 5 4 40.75( 220) 0 0 | 0 0 | 41.44 208 | 38.87 212
210 Georgia State AA = 40.55 2 7 53.52( 164) 0 0 | 0 1 | 40.03 215 | 40.17 205
211 Morgan State AA = 40.45 5 4 40.55( 223) 0 0 | 0 0 | 43.50 200 | 35.70 215
212 Dartmouth AA = 40.42 3 5 43.35( 209) 0 0 | 0 0 | 38.90 218 | 40.96 201
213 Dayton AA = 40.13 6 4 34.70( 242) 0 0 | 0 0 | 34.19 224 | 43.69 190
214 Alabama A&M AA = 39.62 7 2 33.39( 246) 0 0 | 0 0 | 43.13 203 | 34.08 222
215 SE Louisiana AA = 39.30 2 7 50.81( 175) 0 0 | 0 1 | 40.27 212 | 37.34 213
216 Western Carolina AA = 38.93 1 8 60.57( 125) 0 0 | 0 0 | 37.75 220 | 39.16 211
217 Austin Peay AA = 38.39 3 6 49.75( 183) 0 0 | 0 1 | 40.32 211 | 35.21 218
218 Northern Colorado AA = 38.08 0 10 56.57( 141) 0 0 | 0 0 | 35.56 223 | 39.40 207
219 SE Missouri State AA = 37.88 3 6 50.62( 177) 0 0 | 0 0 | 40.13 213 | 34.24 221
220 Grambling State AA = 36.70 5 4 38.14( 234) 0 0 | 0 0 | 40.04 214 | 31.20 230
221 Marist AA = 36.56 4 6 39.45( 229) 0 0 | 0 0 | 35.87 222 | 36.34 214
222 Lamar AA = 36.00 3 6 50.98( 174) 0 0 | 0 0 | 39.92 216 | 29.26 234
223 Butler AA = 35.16 5 4 38.23( 233) 0 0 | 0 0 | 33.85 226 | 35.51 217
224 Nicholls State AA = 34.42 1 8 56.43( 143) 0 0 | 0 0 | 33.93 225 | 34.01 223
225 Prairie View A&M AA = 34.03 4 5 38.40( 232) 0 0 | 0 0 | 37.81 219 | 27.34 237
226 Sacred Heart AA = 33.91 5 4 34.39( 244) 0 0 | 0 0 | 33.82 227 | 33.11 224
227 Robert Morris AA = 33.32 2 7 40.36( 226) 0 0 | 0 0 | 29.26 233 | 35.56 216
228 Ark.-Pine Bluff AA = 33.12 4 5 36.53( 238) 0 0 | 0 0 | 36.75 221 | 26.69 239
229 Fordham AA = 33.05 1 8 52.23( 170) 0 0 | 0 0 | 33.42 228 | 31.75 228
230 Southern AA = 32.10 3 6 35.41( 240) 0 0 | 0 0 | 31.82 230 | 31.50 229
231 Central Connecticut AA = 31.46 3 7 41.08( 216) 0 0 | 0 0 | 29.10 234 | 32.59 226
232 Wagner AA = 30.64 2 7 41.96( 215) 0 0 | 0 0 | 29.97 231 | 30.41 231
233 Morehead State AA = 30.64 2 7 42.00( 214) 0 0 | 0 0 | 21.55 242 | 34.73 220
234 Princeton AA = 30.17 1 7 48.19( 188) 0 0 | 0 0 | 29.41 232 | 30.02 232
235 Saint Francis-Pa. AA = 28.34 2 8 40.73( 221) 0 0 | 0 0 | 26.63 237 | 28.97 235
236 Savannah State AA = 28.25 1 8 43.09( 212) 0 0 | 0 0 | 33.19 229 | 15.67 246
237 Texas Southern AA = 28.12 4 5 34.39( 243) 0 0 | 0 0 | 28.49 236 | 26.83 238
238 Charleston Southern AA = 27.97 0 9 52.68( 169) 0 0 | 0 0 | 13.65 245 | 32.72 225
239 NC Central AA = 27.83 2 7 43.42( 207) 0 0 | 0 0 | 28.85 235 | 25.75 240
240 VMI AA = 26.29 1 8 47.32( 192) 0 0 | 0 0 | 18.21 244 | 29.81 233
241 Alcorn State AA = 25.65 2 6 34.84( 241) 0 0 | 0 0 | 24.95 238 | 25.44 241
242 Columbia AA = 25.48 0 8 40.86( 219) 0 0 | 0 0 | 20.26 243 | 28.03 236
243 Davidson AA = 23.01 2 7 43.67( 205) 0 0 | 0 0 | 22.62 241 | 22.50 242
244 Miss. Valley State AA = 22.92 1 9 38.59( 231) 0 0 | 0 0 | 24.60 239 | 19.81 244
245 Delaware State AA = 22.84 2 7 43.65( 206) 0 0 | 0 0 | 24.38 240 | 19.94 243
246 Valparaiso AA = 15.07 0 9 43.20( 211) 0 0 | 0 0 | 12.37 246 | 16.23 245
247 ***UNRATED*** __ = -90.00 8 70 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | -90.00 247 | -90.00 247

[darell1976]

41!!! Thats pretty damn high. I wonder what the highest ranking for a FCS team in the polls has ever been? I bet if NDSU runs the table they could end up in the AP top 25 with FBS teams.

[extremerouge]

41!!! Thats pretty damn high. I wonder what the highest ranking for a FCS team in the polls has ever been? I bet if NDSU runs the table they could end up in the AP top 25 with FBS teams.

No chance. But if I recall, App St. received some top 25 votes after their win at Michigan a couple of years ago...

[No_Skill]

41!!! Thats pretty damn high. I wonder what the highest ranking for a FCS team in the polls has ever been? I bet if NDSU runs the table they could end up in the AP top 25 with FBS teams.

I think we were somewhere in the 40s in 07. I doubt we would get any AP votes, although I do believe the rule was recently changed so an FCS team could get votes. Wasn't Appy ranked in the AP at some point?

[No_Skill]

Ninja'd

[frozennorth]

I believe ndsu cracked several of the computers going into sdsu in 07, though due to getting 0 poll votes, didn't crack the overall rankings.

[Engineer86]

SHSU, weakest strength of schedule on the board.

[dgreco]

I do not get why UND gets so much love. Their best win is Southern Utah and then they have a bunch of no help wins. I do not understand how computers and humans give them so much love.

[FCS Go!]

I do not get why UND gets so much love. Their best win is Southern Utah and then they have a bunch of no help wins. I do not understand how computers and humans give them so much love.

Just playing an FBS team ups your sagarin. Playing two, even if they're awful like Fresno and Idaho, helps even more.

[Fear the Bird]

Yeah not unheard of Delaware received an AP vote last November and werent even #1 ranked in FCS. If 2007 App wasnt ranked though i dont see how anybody will be

[ValleyChamp]

If I am not mistaken, UNI was the first team in FCS to ever receive a vote in the FBS AP poll, in 2007.

[Fear the Bird]

If I am not mistaken, UNI was the first team in FCS to ever receive a vote in the FBS AP poll, in 2007.

Ahh yea the infamous UD run through the MVFC on the road with blizzards

That UNI team was damn good still dont know how we got out of that dome

[Twentysix]

JMU was in the FBS top 25 last year.

HARRISONBURG, Va., Sept. 12, 2010 - On the heels of a stunning 21-16 win at FBS #13 Virginia Tech, the James Madison football squad received 11 points in the AP Poll for FBS Football, Sept. 12, 2010. This is the first time JMU has appeared in this national poll.


NDSU is #26 according to lol chess.

[Hammerhead]

Going back to the 2007 season (the first year I started tracking this), the highest Sagarin rating for an FCS team at the end of the regular season was Villanova at #35 in 2009. UNI and JMU finished at #41 in 2007 and 2008, respectively. The highest rated team at the end of the 2010 regular season was Delaware at #65.




I think we were somewhere in the 40s in 07. I doubt we would get any AP votes, although I do believe the rule was recently changed so an FCS team could get votes. Wasn't Appy ranked in the AP at some point?

[DOME]

Ahh yea the infamous UD run through the MVFC on the road with blizzards

That UNI team was damn good still dont know how we got out of that dome

xmadxxmadxxmadx Joe Flacco...to this day the reason I hate the Ravens.

[UNIFanSince1983]

Ahh yea the infamous UD run through the MVFC on the road with blizzards

That UNI team was damn good still dont know how we got out of that dome

Victor Williams fumbling the ball, and it being returned for a TD right before the half killed us. And stupid Joe Flacco. Being a Bengals fan he is still the bane of my existence.

According to Sagarin the MVFC is very strong apparently. According to the ELO-Chess, which does not take MOV into account, the MVFC has 3 teams in the top 4.

[AppChicago]

The AP changed the rule to allow poll-voters to include I-AA schools after App's Michigan win. However, the change didn't come through until after the votes were in after the UofM game. As a result, App probably missed its window for votes there. http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=3008022

If you take a look at the polls from that year, App got no votes immediately following the win (due to the still-in-place I-A-only rule) http://espn.go.com/college-football/rankings/_/year/2007/week/2, but got 19 votes the following week after toppling powerhouse Lenoir-Rhyne. http://espn.go.com/college-football/rankings/_/year/2007/week/3

[Milktruck74]

Victor Williams fumbling the ball, and it being returned for a TD right before the half killed us. And stupid Joe Flacco. Being a Bengals fan he is still the bane of my existence.

According to Sagarin the MVFC is very strong apparently. According to the ELO-Chess, which does not take MOV into account, the MVFC has 3 teams in the top 4.

If you are willing to be a Bengals fan...you deserve exactly what you get!!!! hahaha

[Hammersmith]

I do not get why UND gets so much love. Their best win is Southern Utah and then they have a bunch of no help wins. I do not understand how computers and humans give them so much love.

A few reasons. First, the majority of the computer rating systems, including Sagarin, don't consider non-DI games. So UND's near loss to NAIA/DII Sioux Falls? Never happened. Same for their games against NAIAs Black Hills State and Montana Western. So out of nine games played, fully one-third are not counted by most of the computer rankings. And that's the same one-third that should tank their SOS. Of the six games that are counted, one-third of those are FBS. So that gives them an SOS boost that is out of proportion to reality. Even so, the conference schedule should equalize things. Except that the Great West as a conference has way more FBS and non-DI games on their schedules than is typical. So the skewed SOSs just get reinforced as the season goes on. And over half the GWC's OOC games are with Big Sky teams, which are also playing a higher than average ratio of non-DI teams(at least compared to the other power conferences). I've just been chalking it up as a mathematical oddity and not worrying about it other than as an interesting quirk(the same goes for the rest of the Great West).

[darell1976]

A few reasons. First, the majority of the computer rating systems, including Sagarin, don't consider non-DI games. So UND's near loss to NAIA/DII Sioux Falls? Never happened. Same for their games against NAIAs Black Hills State and Montana Western. So out of nine games played, fully one-third are not counted by most of the computer rankings. And that's the same one-third that should tank their SOS. Of the six games that are counted, one-third of those are FBS. So that gives them an SOS boost that is out of proportion to reality. Even so, the conference schedule should equalize things. Except that the Great West as a conference has way more FBS and non-DI games on their schedules than is typical. So the skewed SOSs just get reinforced as the season goes on. And over half the GWC's OOC games are with Big Sky teams, which are also playing a higher than average ratio of non-DI teams(at least compared to the other power conferences). I've just been chalking it up as a mathematical oddity and not worrying about it other than as an interesting quirk(the same goes for the rest of the Great West).

Same can be said for why South Dakota is ranked so high. Their 3rd NON DI opponent is Saturday.

[Da Bison]

I do not get why UND gets so much love. Their best win is Southern Utah and then they have a bunch of no help wins. I do not understand how computers and humans give them so much love.

Be careful............. you're going to be labeled as a Bison fan................... because we all know it's only Bison fans that can question und issues.

[Hammersmith]

Same can be said for why South Dakota is ranked so high. Their 3rd NON DI opponent is Saturday.

Agreed. That's why I referenced them in my last parentheses. All of the GW teams are ranked higher than they should be in most of the computer models.

UND: 2 FBS, 3 non-DI
USD: 2 FBS, 3 non-DI
SUU: 1 FBS, 0 non-DI (legit schedule)
UCD: 2 FBS, 1 non-DI
CP: 2 FBS, 1 non-DI

[dgreco]

Be careful............. you're going to be labeled as a Bison fan................... because we all know it's only Bison fans that can question und issues.

Well I rather be labeled a Bison fan than see teams like USD and UND get so much love. At least when SDSU and NDSU went through transition they had decent teams that deserved to be ranked.

[Seawolf97]

Going by these numbers Liberty and SBU are pretty even. Liberty 140 , SBU 142 .

[frozennorth]

Same can be said for why South Dakota is ranked so high. Their 3rd NON DI opponent is Saturday.

We get it, 'but usd..."

The difference is that they manage to look competent against subpar competition. UND, not so much.

[Squealofthepig]

Just to be a slight detractor, I would note that for some of the Great West Schools, getting multiple FBS payoffs may not be "legit" but could be seen as a cost-saving measure by the administration as they look forward to their Missouri Valley and Big Sky conference realignments. While I don't have these teams ranked, I wouldn't completely discount this year's schedule as a few AD's might be thinking about fiscal solvency. Given scheduling, I think only SUU had a reasonable shot at a playoff spot (1 FBS, 0 sub-FCS), with Cal Poly having a hard but not impossible shot at the playoffs.