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Go Apps
October 31st, 2011, 07:09 AM
Here are a few clarifications for the playoff field of 20: The Ivy League does not participate in the playoffs- The SWAC will send its division champions to the SWAC title game. Assume a team must also reach 7 D1 wins to be eligible.for an at large. ALSO there are teams with still a chance of winning their Autobid but I have not listed due to upcoming schedule, will add as necessary.

FCS teams that can still entertain realistic playoff hopes. Schools are ranked by their chances of making the playoffs.. Current overall and conference records are in parentheses, and each team’s remaining schedule is listed with a brief synopsis of its chances. The adds of AQ means they got the Autobid or IN means I believe they have already made the field,regardless of how they finish. The rank below is based on being in the playoffs and their chances of making the playoffs not where I believe they will be seated.

1. North Dakota State (8-0, 5-0 MVC)
The Games: at Indiana State, Young State, at W. Illinois

Outlook: IN The Bison are in and in control of the top seed!

2. Sam Houston State (8-0, 5-0 Southland)
The Games: at SELouis, N’wstern State, at Texas State

Outlook: Have the easiest schedule remaining – an undefeated season and a top seed is possible

3. Montana State (8-1, 5-1 Big Sky)
The Games: at Weber State, Montana

Outlook: Only Montana is a road block to a top seed for the Bobcats

4. Lehigh (7-1, 2-0 Patriot)
The Games: Holy Cross, Georgetown, Lafayette

Outlook: On a roll and should get the autobid –doubtful on a seed

5. Liberty (6-3, 4-0 Big South)
The Games: VMI, at Stony Brook

Outlook: In the drivers seat for the AB, a loss to SB could change everything

6. Montana (7-2, 6-1 Big Sky)
The Games: Western Oregon, at Montana State

Outlook: The Grizzles are now looking at the showdown with Montana State a win gives them the AB.

7. Albany (6-2, 5-0 NEC)
The Games: Bryant, at Monmouth, Sacred Heart

Outlook: Needs just two wins to clinch the AB.

8. Northern Iowa (6-2, 5-1 MVC)
The Games: at Young State, S. Utah, at Ill State

Outlook: No longer in control of the autobid and now a tough schedule remains, needs two more wins to erase any doubt

9. Maine (7-1, 5-0 CAA)
The Games: Towson, UMass, at N. Hampshire

Outlook: The CAA is turned upside, but the bears are in full control for the moment

10. Wofford (6-2, 4-1 Southern)
The Games: at WCU, GSU, at UTC

Outlook: Terriers need two more wins – 3 gives them the autobid and a top seed

11. Ga Southern (7-1, 5-1 Southern)
The Games: Citadel, at Wofford, at Alabama

Outlook: GSU lost some control but wins in their next two will keep them alive for a top seed

12. Appalachian State (6-2, 4-1 Southern)
The Games: at Furman, WCU, at Elon

Outlook: Stunning win vs GSU but will they trip up at Furman?

13. Old Dominion (7-2, 4-2 CAA)
The Games: JMU, Richmond, at W&M

Outlook: Needs just two more wins – could lose all 3?

14. Norfolk State (7-2. 5-1 MEAC)
The Games: at Savannah State, at Morgan State

Outlook: Needs to keep winning to secure Autobid , a loss would put them in a logjam

15. New Hampshire (6-2, 3-1 CAA)
The Games: JMU, at Towson, Maine

Outlook: Tough road ahead as the games keep coming to early to call

16. Towson (6-2, 4-1 CAA)
The Games: at Maine, N. Hampshire, at R. Island

Outlook: Here again need to play these games as week to week things are changing in the CAA

17. Illinois State (6-3, 4-2 MVC)
The Games: W. Illinois, N. Iowa

Outlook: Needs at least one more win – two wins secures a post season berth

18. Tennessee Tech (5-2, 4-1 OVC)
The Games: Murray State, at EKU, Austin Peay

Outlook: Must win out, but what a tough schedule the game at EKU looms large

19. Jacksonville State (5-3, 4-1 OVC)
The Games: EKU, at SEMOSt, at Tenn State

Outlook: What happened - things are not looking so good and a surging EKU team is next – another loss would likely end Jax State’s post season’s aspirations.

20. Indiana State (5-3, 3-2 MVC)
The Games: NDSU, at MO State, S. Illinois

Outlook: Very much in the hunt and a strong schedule with 4 losses they will be hard to leave out!

21. Furman (5-3, 4-2 Southern)
The Games: ASU, Elon, at Florida

Outlook: Don’t look now but the Paladins are back in a big way – knock off App and they are very much in the mix

22. Cal Poly (5-3, 3-0 Great West)
The Games: at UC Davis, E. Washington, at S. Alabama

Outlook: Now they must win the next to stay in the discussion.

23. Eastern Kentucky (5-3, 4-1 OVC)
The Games: at Jacksonville St., Tenn Tech, UT Martin

Outlook: Must win out, the Autobid is still within reach…

24. James Madison (5-3, 3-2 CAA)
The Games: at N. Hampshire, R. Island, at UMASS

Outlook: JMU is in real trouble injuries have them on the ropes and two more losses is very possible.

25. Morgan State (5-3, 4-1 MEAC)
The Games: at Bethune, Norfolk State, Hampton

Outlook: Showdown coming in two weeks must keep winning

26. Samford (5-3, 3-3 Southern)
The Games: UTC, at Citadel, at Auburn

Outlook: To assume the bulldogs will win the next two I think they stay in the discussion with 7 wins with the head to head win over Furman.

27. Central Arkansas (5-3, 4-1 Southland)
The Games: SE Lous, at N’wstern State, Texas State

Outlook: Still alive but must keep winning

28. Northwestern State (5-3, 3-1 Southland)
The Games: C. Arkansas, at Sam Houston, SFA

Outlook: If they win their last 3 they grab the autobid, lose any three of those and they are done

29. Stony Brook (5-3, 3-0 Big South)
The Games: at Char Southern, at Gardner Webb, Liberty

Outlook: Win out and they are in!

30. Youngstown State (5-3, 3-2 MVC)
The Games: at N. Iowa, at NDSU, MO State

Outlook: Still alive but I don’t see them making it

31. Georgetown (7-2, 3-1 Patriot)
The Games: Fordham, at Lehigh

Outlook: If they win the next two they will earn the Autobid

32. Holy Cross (4-4, 2-1 Patriot)
The Games: at Lehigh, Lafayette, at Fordham

Outlook: Must win out and need Georgetown to lose once more and they win the AB

33. SC State/Bethune/Fla A&M/Hampton (MEAC)

Outlook: All of these teams are still alive for the moment…


Below are my current projections for the I-AA playoff field.

Automatic Bids:
Patriot: Lehigh CAA: Maine
Big Sky: Montana State Southland: Sam Houston State
Southern: Wofford MVC: NDSU
MEAC: Norfolk State OVC: Tennessee Tech
Big South: Liberty NEC: Albany

At-large:
GSU, ASU, Furman, N. Hamp, Montana, Cal Poly, Ill St, Towson, ODU, N. Iowa

Seeds: Wofford, Montana State, Maine, Sam Houston State, NDSU
Last In: Furman, N. Hampshire, Cal Poly
Last Out: EKU, Indiana State, C Arkansas, Samford


Bracket I:
Norfolk State @ Liberty winner at No. 1 NDSU
N. Iowa @ Montana

Furman @ Tenn Tech winner at No. 4 Wofford
Lehigh @ No. 5 Sam Houston State

Bracket II:
Albany @ N. Hampshire winner at No. 3 Maine
ODU @ ASU

Cal Poly @ Ill State winner at No. 2 Montana State
Towson @ GSU

MTfan4life
October 31st, 2011, 07:26 AM
Old Dominion is 7-2. They beat JMU this past weekend.

appfan2008
October 31st, 2011, 07:31 AM
ODU is not a team that I would love to play in round one...

Twentysix
October 31st, 2011, 07:41 AM
ODU is not a team that I would love to play in round one...

Maybe the 2 montana's will duke it out, I wonder which side of the country they will play on if it happens.

Go Apps
October 31st, 2011, 07:41 AM
Old Dominion is 7-2. They beat JMU this past weekend.

Lot of info to process but fixed -thanks!

Bam
October 31st, 2011, 08:42 AM
OVC home game! Interesting?

Twentysix
October 31st, 2011, 08:47 AM
OVC home game! Interesting?

Looks like furman is seating right around 19k. Maybe they didnt bid in his scenario?

URMite
October 31st, 2011, 10:34 AM
I don't think Texas State is eligible this year...

Samford played a non-Div I so need to win out including Auburn to have 7 Div I wins.

I believe NW State, Cal Poly, and UCA all need to win out for 7 Div I wins as well.

DFW HOYA
October 31st, 2011, 10:40 AM
31. Georgetown (7-2, 3-1 Patriot)
The Games: Fordham, at Lehigh

Outlook: If they win the next two they will earn the Autobid


Because Fordham is ineligible for the PL standings, a win over Lehigh would be sufficient.

Bam
October 31st, 2011, 10:40 AM
Looks like furman is seating right around 19k. Maybe they didnt bid in his scenario?

If they bid I'm sure they beat out EKU or TTU. Sadly only Jax St has good home field turnout.

JSUBison
October 31st, 2011, 10:51 AM
Texas State is not eligible, FBS transitional.

Go Apps
October 31st, 2011, 11:03 AM
Texas State is not eligible, FBS transitional.

Thanks I will update

Go Apps
October 31st, 2011, 11:55 AM
Will make any corrections that you find - want this to be accurate

Go Apps
October 31st, 2011, 03:36 PM
will keep updating accordingly

SumItUp
October 31st, 2011, 04:00 PM
5. Liberty (6-3, 4-0 Big South)
The Games: VMI, at Stony Brook

Outlook: In the drivers seat for the AB, a loss to SB could change everything

If Liberty loses to Stony Brook, Stony Brook will get the automatic bid and Liberty will not qualify for an at-large. In the unlikely event that Stony Brook loses the next two weeks and Liberty wins next week, Liberty will win the autobid regardless of the outcome of the LU/SB game.

tingly
October 31st, 2011, 04:15 PM
I think Cal Poly is on the outside until they get some help elsewhere, tough for bubble teams to survive scheduling a non-D1 opponent.

URMite
October 31st, 2011, 04:22 PM
I think Cal Poly is on the outside until they get some help elsewhere, tough for bubble teams to survive scheduling a non-D1 opponent.

I believe Cal Poly has non-D1 win and two FBS losses...so need to go 7-1 in the FCS but good chance of getting in if they do.

URMite
October 31st, 2011, 04:26 PM
"26. Samford (5-3, 3-3 Southern)
The Games: UTC, at Citadel, at Auburn

Outlook: To assume the bulldogs will win the next two I think they stay in the discussion with 7 wins with the head to head win over Furman."

Samford played non-Div I Stillman, so they need 3 wins for 7 Div-I wins...I don't like their chances at Auburn.

youwouldno
October 31st, 2011, 04:34 PM
Cal Poly would have to be a lock at 8-3. They would have no signature win, but 7-1 against solid FCS competition seems inarguable. The committee will also like that, in this scenario, they would have finished with 7 straight wins.

tingly
October 31st, 2011, 04:42 PM
Better Poly teams has been left out before because they scheduled a non-D1 (edit: combined with a weaker D1 schedule). When the committee has a bunch of teams that they can't compare directly, things like 6 D1 wins (greatly) and non-D1 opponents (somewhat) are held against teams. It's in the NCAA playoff handbook or whatever it's called. Having a much tougher schedule this year will help balance it, but as things stand, I don't see them getting in if they're still on the board with a spot or 2 left. They'd need an obvious gap to develop between the last team in and first team out.

The Eagle's Cliff
October 31st, 2011, 04:46 PM
Anyone "stunned" by the Apps win hasn't followed the series much. The home team is a 70% winner in the modern era.

Go Apps
November 1st, 2011, 06:41 AM
Anyone "stunned" by the Apps win hasn't followed the series much. The home team is a 70% winner in the modern era.

Stunned only in the sense of I was not sure which App team showed up

OL FU
November 1st, 2011, 08:25 AM
Stunned only in the sense of I was not sure which App team showed up

Here's to the other one showing up this saturdayxthumbsupx

Go Apps
November 1st, 2011, 12:34 PM
Here's to the other one showing up this saturdayxthumbsupx

That can easily occur!

Go Apps
November 2nd, 2011, 07:12 AM
If Liberty loses to Stony Brook, Stony Brook will get the automatic bid and Liberty will not qualify for an at-large. In the unlikely event that Stony Brook loses the next two weeks and Liberty wins next week, Liberty will win the autobid regardless of the outcome of the LU/SB game.

Agree a 4 loss Liberty team is likely left out they must win out to be in the field and if they do I think they grab a first round game