Creating the Playoff Field - 10/30

[TexasTerror]

Tough chore this week to slot teams once we get into the playoffs because outside of the seeded teams, there are plenty of others who can pack them in and can be draws that make the NCAA happy...

I threw Cal Poly in since I think they can win out, though there are other options to look at if they do not (particularly if the Missouri Valley and Colonial have anything brewing).

AUTOMATIC BIDS
Big Sky: Montana State
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: Maine
MEAC: Norfolk State
Missouri Valley: North Dakota State
Northeast: Albany
Ohio Valley: Tennessee Tech
Patriot: Lehigh
SoCon: Wofford
Southland: Sam Houston State

AT-LARGE
Big Sky: Montana
Colonial: Towson, New Hampshire, Old Dominion
Great West: Cal Poly
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa, Illinois State
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
SoCon: Georgia Southern, Appalachian State

FIRST ROUND GAMES
Illinois State at Jacksonville State
Cal Poly at Liberty
Albany at New Hampshire
Norfolk State at Lehigh

SECOND ROUND GAMES

Cal Poly/Liberty winner at #1 North Dakota State
Northern Iowa at Montana

Norfolk State/Lehigh winner at #4 Maine
Tennessee Tech at #5 Appalachian State

Illinois State/Jacksonville State winner at #3 Sam Houston State
Old Dominion at Georgia Southern

Albany/New Hampshire winner at #2 Montana State
Towson at Wofford

[TexasTerror]

And before anyone says anything about James Madison, they got to travel to UNH and UMass - those are a pair of no fun road trips. I'll be willing to give JMU the benefit of the doubt if they can win one of those games.

Cal Poly is my last team in, but you got James Madison, Indiana State and Youngstown State in a mix of bubble teams. Indiana State beat YSU, so that'd get them the nod if all things are 'equal'.

[dgreco]

Do you think if Duquesne wins out they might be on a last four out list? You got to think if a few teams fail to reach 7 DI wins (Furman, Cal Poly, JMU, Indiana State a whole bunch of MEAC teams) that they may have an outside shot, no?

[TexasTerror]

Do you think if Duquesne wins out they might be on a last four out list? You got to think if a few teams fail to reach 7 DI wins (Furman, Cal Poly, a whole bunch of MEAC teams) that they may have an outside shot, no?

You also got to consider that the loss to Bucknell was not so great considering they are middle of the pack Patriot League team. For NEC team to roll, they got to get that kind of win...

I think there's enough seven win teams that could emerge from the OVC, SoCon, CAA and Valley. As you mentioned, Cal Poly and there's also a possibility of an 8-3 Central Arkansas which could have wins in their final seven games with a lone SLC loss to champion SHSU.

[dgreco]

I do not think Duquesne can get in the field unless a lot of "crazy things" happen, I was more wondering if they would be a last four out.

eg. the NEC is getting some pub as not just a bottom feeder league. There could be two potential good teams from the league, do they deserve an at-large yet? No, but look its not a horrible league, type mentality.

[TexasTerror]

I do not think Duquesne can get in the field unless a lot of "crazy things" happen, I was more wondering if they would be a last four out.

eg. the NEC is getting some pub as not just a bottom feeder league. There could be two potential good teams from the league, do they deserve an at-large yet? No, but look its not a horrible league, type mentality.

I do not think they are in the 'last four out' at this point...

Unless there's only 28 teams with seven Div I wins (not counting Pioneer squads) and Duquesne is one of them, that's the only way to be 'last four' out.

[tribefan40]

My stab at it...

AUTOMATIC BIDS
Big Sky: Montana State
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: Maine
MEAC: Norfolk State
Missouri Valley: North Dakota State
Northeast: Albany
Ohio Valley: Tennessee Tech
Patriot: Lehigh
SoCon: Georgia Southern
Southland: Sam Houston State

AT-LARGE
Big Sky: Montana
Colonial: Old Dominion, Towson, New Hampshire
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa, Illinois State, Indiana state
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
SoCon: Appalachian State, Wofford

FIRST ROUND GAMES
Indiana State at Wofford
New Hampshire at Jacksonville State
Albany at Lehigh
Norfolk State at Liberty

SECOND ROUND GAMES

Norfolk State/Liberty winner at #1 North Dakota State
Illinois State at Montana

New Hampshire/Jacksonville State winner at #4 Georgia Southern
Northern Iowa at #5 Sam Houston State

Indiana State/Wofford winner at #3 Maine
Tennessee Tech at Old Dominion

Albany/Lehigh winner at #2 Montana State
Towson at Appalachian State

[fatmonarch]

I don't think ODU gets a first round bye. We will probably lose one of our next two games to either Richmond or W&M and finish the season 8-3. I don't see the committee giving a 4th place CAA team the bye. Plus I don't think they have respect for ODU as a program yet. We have to pay our dues to FCS much like we have with the CAA this season.

[Wildcat80]

Towson could easily lose the last 3....hopefully at least vs UNH! ODU only has 2 to play--both instate rivals to be. Udel has 2 winnable games. UNH has 3 tough games left, gotta beat at least JMU & Towson to set up epic last game with Maine......anything can happen!

[TexasTerror]

Thoughts...?

If SHSU goes undefeated, I can not see them getting worse than a #4 seed and probably as high as a #3. I can understand putting a few one-loss teams ahead of the Bearkats and perhaps a few two loss teams, but have a hard time seeing an 11-0 SHSU team not get the benefit of having two home games as a #4 seed.

[UNH Fanboi]

Thoughts...?

If SHSU goes undefeated, I can not see them getting worse than a #4 seed and probably as high as a #3. I can understand putting a few one-loss teams ahead of the Bearkats and perhaps a few two loss teams, but have a hard time seeing an 11-0 SHSU team not get the benefit of having two home games as a #4 seed.

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them get the #2. I agree that #4 is an absolute minimum.

[youwouldno]

There's no reason for the OVC to get 2 bids. None of them have decent wins except against each other, and it's not a strong conference.

[Fear the Bird]

Why why why would jax st get in what is this sites obsession with the gamecocks

[UNH Fanboi]

Why why why would jax st get in what is this sites obsession with the gamecocks

Because they beat Ole Miss last year, so they are the only OVC team anyone had heard of. Same thing happened with SCSU last year--people gave them credit for almost beating ASU in the playoffs the previous year.

[TexasTerror]

There's no reason for the OVC to get 2 bids. None of them have decent wins except against each other, and it's not a strong conference.

Friendly reminder... I was the only one or one of the few that predicted the MEAC would get multiple bids in last year. What happened? They got Bethune Cookman and South Carolina State. You can feel the way you do, but at this point - I'm leaning towards two bids by the OVC and I'm not going to waver until I see fit.


Why why why would jax st get in what is this sites obsession with the gamecocks

Jacksonville State is likely going to get to 8-3 with lone losses to OVC champ Tennessee Tech, SoCon's Chatty and then FBS. While the Chatty loss could come back to bite them in the tail, I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt and a 3-0 finish. If they drop to 7-4, they will not be going to the playoffs.


Because they beat Ole Miss last year, so they are the only OVC team anyone had heard of. Same thing happened with SCSU last year--people gave them credit for almost beating ASU in the playoffs the previous year.

So - you are saying the committee put SCSU in the field because they almost beat Appalachian State the previous year?

[UNH Fanboi]

So - you are saying the committee put SCSU in the field because they almost beat Appalachian State the previous year?

I can't read their minds, but I' guessing that was in the back of their minds. SCSU hadn't beaten anybody and were in the 40s or 50s in the computer rankings.

[UNHFootballAlum]

At 6-2 you consistently have UNH playing a 1st round game. Yes, we have a tough 3 games, but I think that if UNH gets in they will have a bye in the 1st round

[JMUNJ08]

Jacksonville State is likely going to get to 8-3 with lone losses to OVC champ Tennessee Tech, SoCon's Chatty and then FBS. While the Chatty loss could come back to bite them in the tail, I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt and a 3-0 finish. If they drop to 7-4, they will not be going to the playoffs.

Difference is Jax St. has 0 quality wins this year. If I'm right, SSCU had shown brovado in the playoffs and still had a good season in the MEAC so people gave them a semi-pass. The Gamecocks have NOTHING this year...I think a 7-4 CAA/SoCon team could get in over them at 8-3. JMU being one of them. (But I did see your thought process for leaving them out for now so I know that one)

[stevdock]

Northern Iowa loses one game to an FBS and one game to the current #1 and they don't get a second round home game?? The third best SoCon team has a better resume than they do??

[TexasTerror]

Northern Iowa loses one game to an FBS and one game to the current #1 and they don't get a second round home game?? The third best SoCon team has a better resume than they do??

The floor if yours or anyone else's to provide their bracket! Think that sometimes $$$ talks and there's definitely some programs in the SoCon that will bid their way to home games if not seeded. Plus, have a hard time seeing the SoCon champ have to play on the road.


At 6-2 you consistently have UNH playing a 1st round game. Yes, we have a tough 3 games, but I think that if UNH gets in they will have a bye in the 1st round

UNH could very well get a bye, but I think playing in the first round provides the best opportunity for the Wildcats to have a home game AND still believe they will get a loss or two in these final three games. CAA situation is confusing, be glad I put all the right CAA teams in. ;)

[superman7515]

I didn't think UNH was able to host a playoff game anymore due to their facilities. They'll get a first round bye just so the committee can guarantee they play @ someone else.

[blackfordpu]

Terror, you don't think UCA can get in if they win out?

[appst97]

How do you justify Ga Southern with a seed and the auto bid after yesterdays loss? The loser of the GSU Wofford game will have two losses and if GSU wins, App will have the tie breaker(assuming APP wins out) over them

[Saint3333]

If ASU wins out they will be no lower than the 3 seed.

[veinup]

i didn't think i'd be saying this at the start of the season, but it's totally possible that montana will beat montana state and win the auto-bid, which will seemingly flip quite a few people's predictions around..

[katstrapper]

If SHSU finishes 11-0, it would be a travesty if they were not a top 2 or 3 seed. Its time for people to pull their heads out of their collective azzes as voters and look at what this team is doing. Kats have outscored their opponents 196 - 27 in their last 4 games.

[Fear the Bird]

If SHSU finishes 11-0, it would be a travesty if they were not a top 2 or 3 seed. Its time for people to pull their heads out of their collective azzes as voters and look at what this team is doing. Kats have outscored their opponents 196 - 27 in their last 4 games.

Where did you want them ranked?! 5 last week and possibly 3 this week not good enough?

[van]

If SHSU finishes 11-0, it would be a travesty if they were not a top 2 or 3 seed. Its time for people to pull their heads out of their collective azzes as voters and look at what this team is doing. Kats have outscored their opponents 196 - 27 in their last 4 games.

AGS voters do not matter to the committee, they will decide who gets the 5 seeds.

[Professor Chaos]

Here's what I got this week (autobids in CAPS):

Winner of NORFOLK ST at LIBERTY
at
(1) NORTH DAKOTA ST

New Hampshire
at
Montana

Winner of ALBANY at Illinois St
at
(4) MAINE

Towson
at
(5) APPALACHIAN ST

Winner of TENNESSEE TECH at James Madison
at
(2) MONTANA ST

Wofford
at
Northern Iowa

Winner of Furman at Old Dominion
at
(3) SAM HOUSTON ST

LEHIGH
at
Georgia Southern

Bids by conference: CAA - 5, SOCON - 4, MVFC - 3, Big Sky - 2, SLC/OVC/Patriot/Big South/NEC/MEAC - 1 each

Last 4 in: Old Dominion, Illinois St, James Madison, Furman
First 4 out: Indiana St, Central Arkansas, Cal Poly, Jacksonville St

A couple notes:
1) Indiana St dropped out for me while they were on bye because I felt Furman did more to warrant a spot.
2) Not much separation at all in my opinion between the last 2 in and the first 4 out. A couple other teams like Youngstown St and Northwestern St are right on the cusp as well.

[katstrapper]

I said if they finish season undefeated. I have seen some of the projected brackets and they havent had SHSU higher than a #5 seed, even if they finished undefeated.

But, to answer your question, I think they should have been no worse than #4 last week. I think they should be #2 this week, but it wont happen.

[youwouldno]

Portland St. can't get 7 D-I wins.

The problem for SHSU is that the Southland is horrible this year. The good thing is that the committee probably won't realize it, at least not to the extent of reality.

[Professor Chaos]

Portland St. can't get 7 D-I wins.
Good call, didn't catch the two D2 teams on their schedule. xthumbsupx

[Fear the Bird]

I said if they finish season undefeated. I have seen some of the projected brackets and they havent had SHSU higher than a #5 seed, even if they finished undefeated.

But, to answer your question, I think they should have been no worse than #4 last week. I think they should be #2 this week, but it wont happen.

Why should they jump montana st (not being negative asking for a case to be made)

[ekufbfan]

This may have little meaning in the playoff picture if EKU cannot beat JSU next week, but for those of you picking Tenn Tech as the OVC champ, the EKU-TTU game is in Richmond. Not braggingand not saying it is a given, but draw your own conclusion:xchinscratchx
Over all Wins in the EKU-TTU series: EKU 50 TTU 17
EKU at home against TTU: EKU 27 TTU 8
Wins the last 10 years: EKU 9 wins TTU 1

I know this is a new year and anything can happen, still don't count out EKU.

[TTUEagles]

I certainly am not and I can guarantee the TTU team isn't counting EKU out

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

If JMU doesn't heal up quickly, the season is over. Losing 3 starting o-linemen on saturday + starting running back and another player or two... ugh! JMU is hurting big time and the road is not easy with late season games @UNH and @Umass. Even URI is a dangerous team for any CAA team not ready, and freshmen O linemen are rarely ever ready.

[Bam]

OVC to close to call. EKU's PO starts next sat.

[IaaScribe]

There's no way two OVC teams are getting in this year. Absolutely no way.

[TTUEagles]

There's no way two OVC teams are getting in this year. Absolutely no way.

I can't really argue with this....

[tribefan40]

These are playoff prognostications, right? As in where we think teams will sit at the end of the season, right? Just askin'.

Even undefeated, I don't see anything on the bearkats resume that warrants a ranking or seed above undefeated NDSU, one loss Maine, or one loss GSU. As for GSU let's not forget the mountaineers garnered the #1 seed with a close loss to GSU and season-ending fbs loss just last year.

[TexasTerror]

Terror, you don't think UCA can get in if they win out?

If UCA were to win out, they'd be on the bubble. Got to remember that one of their wins is a D2 win, so the best they can do is end up with seven wins. Hard to see UCA getting in over a seven win team from MVFC, CAA or SoCon.


If SHSU finishes 11-0, it would be a travesty if they were not a top 2 or 3 seed. Its time for people to pull their heads out of their collective azzes as voters and look at what this team is doing. Kats have outscored their opponents 196 - 27 in their last 4 games.

I think they will be a top four seed at worse if they win out. Being a #2 or #3 seed would not surprise me, but I still do not see the committee doing that if there are some one-loss FCS teams with their sole loss coming to FBS.

[mainejeff]

AGS voters do not matter to the committee, they will decide who gets the 5 seeds.

+1

[danefan]

AGS voters do not matter to the committee, they will decide who gets the 5 seeds.


+1

+100