Playoff prognostication as of 10/29

[Reign of Terrier]

As simply put as possible, I think that

The Socon will get 3 teams in for sure (App, Wofford, GSU)

The CAA will get 5 teams in for sure (Maine, Towson, UNH, ODU, JMU)

The MVC will get 2 in for sure (but please enlighten me on how the playoff picture looks for the rest of the conference outside of NDSU and UNI)

and the Big Sky will get at least 2 in for sure (Montana, Montana State)

Sam Houston State will make the playoffs for sure.

The NEC, MEAC, Patriot, and Big South will only get one team in, whoever wins the autobid.

It's actually too early to say anything about the OVC

That means, as of now, there are 2 remaining spots for the playoffs. Potential candidates include:

Illinois State
Indiana State
Youngstown State
Furman
Central Arkansas
Jacksonville State
Eastern Kentucky
Tennessee Tech
Cal Poly

I think we'll have a clearer picture next week, but the field is clearly shaping up IMO.

[Twentysix]

PSU is 3-3.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/2502/portland-state-vikings

ISUr has a legit chance at the playoffs imo. 8-3 could happen for them.

I dont think YSU will beat both UNI and NDSU. But they could win out and go 8-3.

ISUb also has a chance at 8-3 but has to go through ndsu.

The mvfc will probably have alot of 7-4 teams. ISUr or ISUb will probably make the playoffs but not both.

[superman7515]

Sacramento State & Portland State can't reach seven D1 wins, Central Arkansas and Tennessee Tech have to win out.

[Reign of Terrier]

PSU is 3-3.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/2502/portland-state-vikings

but they can't get 7 D1 wins....so I'd assume they're eliminated?

[Twentysix]

I would guess so. If you are gonna invite a 6 win team I imagine their are better ones than Portland state.

[Reign of Terrier]

So of these teams:

Illinois State
Indiana State
Youngstown State
Furman
Central Arkansas
Jacksonville State
Eastern Kentucky
Tennessee Tech
Cal Poly

who do we think would make it? which teams have to win out?

[Twentysix]

ISUr will probably be the third team out of the valley. They have a cake game and then a game against UNI that they could possibly win.

ISUr is currently in third in the valley. If they win out they would be #2.

ISUr holds the tiebreaker over ISUb.

[superman7515]

So of these teams:

Illinois State
Indiana State
Youngstown State
Furman
Central Arkansas
Jacksonville State
Eastern Kentucky
Tennessee Tech
Cal Poly

who do we think would make it? which teams have to win out?

No offense to Furman fans, but I think we can safely eliminate them with the Florida game preventing them from reaching 7 D1 wins.

[asucrutch23]

No offense to Furman fans, but I think we can safely eliminate them with the Florida game preventing them from reaching 7 D1 wins.

Furman can get to 7 by beating App and Elon. Drop one of those, then they have to beat Florida.

[Reign of Terrier]

I added Cal Poly to the list. Teams that need to win out are:
Cal Poly
Tennessee Tech
Central Arkansas
Furman (against FCS competition)

Realistically, there could be 4 MVC teams with 7 D1 wins and at least 2 from the OVC

[superman7515]

Yeah, but I don't think they'll beat App and with Florida at the end, I think it's a done deal. Like I said, nothing against them, them's the breaks.

[Twentysix]

I added Cal Poly to the list. Teams that need to win out are:
Cal Poly
Tennessee Tech
Central Arkansas
Furman (against FCS competition)

Realistically, there could be 4 MVC teams with 7 D1 wins and at least 2 from the OVC

4 not counting NDSU. Their could be 5 MVC teams with 7 D1 wins I believe. YSU ISUr ISUb NDSU UNI

If YSU beats UNI or NDSU they easily attain 7.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/2754/youngstown-state-penguins

[Twentysix]

YSU (7-4) ISUr(8-3) ISUb(7-4) NDSU(11-0) UNI(7-4) is how I would like it to play out and its totally possible, but its not very likely UNI loses 2 more games.

[Dgreenwell3]

ISU red beat ISUB straight up but ISUB beat an FBS school.

[Twentysix]

ISU red beat ISUB straight up but ISUB beat an FBS school.

That is true. It will depend how much influence conference ranking has on the committee. Isn't YSU's AD one of the committee members?

That will probably play a small role aswell if they are 7-4. YSU could potentially make the NCAA a boatload of money with good playoff attendance too, the ice castle can pull in over 20k.

[superman7515]

Isn't YSU's AD one of the committee members?

Per the NCAA rules, he isn't allowed to be in the room at any time his schools team is being discussed, and certainly is not allowed to vote on whether or not they can get in.

[FurmanWins!!]

Yeah, but I don't think they'll beat App and with Florida at the end, I think it's a done deal. Like I said, nothing against them, them's the breaks.

If we beat App and Elon we are in, big game this week :)

[Twentysix]

Per the NCAA rules, he isn't allowed to be in the room at any time his schools team is being discussed, and certainly is not allowed to vote on whether or not they can get in.

Ok, well the boatload of potential money still stands. Not to mention a win over NDSU or UNI to get to 7-4.

[youwouldno]

Wofford is not a lock by any means. GSU is GSU and UTC remains dangerous despite their many close losses. I wouldn't give them much chance at Wofford, but at home they will want to end the season on a positive note and knock out the Terriers (if Wofford loses to GSU).

[Dgreenwell3]

Ok, well the boatload of potential money still stands. Not to mention a win over NDSU or UNI to get to 7-4.

I really wish the money talk had nothing to do with it. I know money makes the world go round but I think putting the best teams out there with the best resumes is always a plus.

[BEAR]

UCA can win out. They have:

Northwestern State and Texas State. Both beatable. That would put UCA at 8-3 with the only FCS loss to Sam Houston.

[BEAR]

edit.double post

[Twentysix]

I really wish the money talk had nothing to do with it. I know money makes the world go round but I think putting the best teams out there with the best resumes is always a plus.

Well, its the reality of the situation. Someone has to finance the free charter flights across the country.

If the resumes are drastically different the gate probably doesnt mean a whole lot. but if both YSU and ISUb are 7-4 and YSU was able to snag a win over NDSU or UNI + the gate incentive, maybe they get the nod. Maybe they dont, who knows.

If ISUb is 8-3 and YSU is 7-4 I would hope ISUb would get in without alot of consideration needed.

[Squealofthepig]

UCA can win out. They have:

Northwestern State and Texas State. Both beatable. That would put UCA at 8-3 with the only FCS loss to Sam Houston.

Just as a non-Southland guy, I have to echo this on Central Arkansas (who is on my ballot). And I would add one of their FBS losses is in OT. NW State is on the road, Texas State is at home. At the very least, UCA should get a long, hard look (again, solidarity with my ursine brethren!)

[Squealofthepig]

Well, its the reality of the situation. Someone has to finance the free charter flights across the country.

I would add it's also a bit about brand-building for the FCS overall; if you're really trying to sell a true championship, which would you rather see on TV - a game in front of a sold-out Bison/Mountaineer/Eagle/Griz crowd, or a quarter-full stadium (especially the first weekend, when Thanksgiving takes students mostly out of the stadiums)? I would quickly note it's 95% money and 5% brand, of course, but just saying there is something on the branding angle.

(And no, I do not expect the Griz to get a seed, even if we win the brawl, just pointing out that there are a few programs that would be definite sellouts, and I would note Montana State should also have a full crowd at home in the playoffs - good buzz in Bozeman).

[veinup]

UM getting a seed would be highly unlikely, no matter what. that said, if it happens, i'll take it.

[TTUEagles]

TECH hosts Murray St next week then travels to EKU the following week. EKU goes to Jacksonville St. this coming Sat., then the OVC race should be settled. The only way I see the OVC getting 2 teams in this year is to have both TECH & JSU win out. Only playing ten games could cost TTU this year - will not / should not get an at-large bid. I doubt EKU gets an at-large if they win all but the JSU game next week (APSU loss).

[JMUNJ08]

So of these teams:

Illinois State
Indiana State
Youngstown State
Furman
Central Arkansas
Jacksonville State
Eastern Kentucky
Tennessee Tech
Cal Poly

who do we think would make it? which teams have to win out?

Those are my two choices...Cal Poly wins out and is in and same with TT

[dgreco]

Those are my two choices...Cal Poly wins out and is in and same with TT

If TT wins out they get the autobid right? So wouldn't that open up a spot for one of the other 7?

[TTUEagles]

If TT wins out they get the autobid right? So wouldn't that open up a spot for one of the other 7?

Yes. TTU or EKU gets the AQ bid if either wins out. TTU @ EKU NOV. 12

[Bam]

TTU will that signature of yours be revised this year?

[TTUEagles]

TTU will that signature of yours be revised this year?

Oh, I'm hoping so! Please, please, please let me change that signature come Nov. 19! EKU has, what, 28 of those? Can I have just one (championship) in 36 (years)? I'm a nice guy, I haven't done anything to anyone...just once?!!! xlolx

[Bam]

Best of luck. I play softball with a TTU grad that is pumped. My hope that whoever makes the PO's can get a w for the ovc.

[mainejeff]

I can't believe that a program like Furman, with their tradition and playoff history would schedule a game against Florida to end the season.........what a bunch of dummies. :(

[Reign of Terrier]

I can't believe that a program like Furman, with their tradition and playoff history would schedule a game against Florida to end the season.........what a bunch of dummies. :(

The sad thing is that compared to other socon schools they scheduled pretty well

[Fear the Bird]

I can't believe that a program like Furman, with their tradition and playoff history would schedule a game against Florida to end the season.........what a bunch of dummies. :(

I think they scheduled well...if you are FU you have to thinkif you lose to GSU, Woff and App it isnt your year so you get paud by Florida...what may bite them in the *** is losing to a horrendous coastal squad week 1

[veinup]

i swear i just posted in this thread but i can't see my post. repost!:

i'm not fully in the know about this, so, a question.. would losing to Florida actually negatively effect any teams chances of making the FCS playoffs? if so, why?

[danefan]

i swear i just posted in this thread but i can't see my post. repost!:

i'm not fully in the know about this, so, a question.. would losing to Florida actually negatively effect any teams chances of making the FCS playoffs? if so, why?

Losing to Florida only really hurts if it stops Furman from getting 7 DI wins. That seems likely and will keep them out of the playoffs.

[youwouldno]

Losing to Florida isn't a problem. The committee has shown time and again they don't care. Losing by less than expected would probably even be a bonus, not that it should be.

The Coastal loss looks incomprehensible in hindsight but one bad loss wouldn't outweigh 2 high quality wins and a couple other solid ones.

[bjtheflamesfan]

Youre going to have quite a few "championship games" the last two weeks of the season it looks like

[danefan]

Losing to Florida isn't a problem. The committee has shown time and again they don't care. Losing by less than expected would probably even be a bonus, not that it should be.

The Coastal loss looks incomprehensible in hindsight but one bad loss wouldn't outweigh 2 high quality wins and a couple other solid ones.

It is a problem if you don't bet App and Elon.

Furman is out at 6-5.

[OL FU]

It is a problem if you don't bet App and Elon.

Furman is out at 6-5.

Sorta semantics. In the grand scheme of course losing to Florida would stop us from getting 7 D1 wins. But losing to Coastal would be what stopped us from getting in (in practical terms).

I think the argument is going in circles.

[danefan]

Sorta semantics. In the grand scheme of course losing to Florida would stop us from getting 7 D1 wins. But losing to Coastal would be what stopped us from getting in (in practical terms).

I think the argument is going in circles.

I thought he was saying Florida doesn't matter at all. But I agree - the Coastal game is the real killer.

[TheRevSFA]

UCA vs NW State is looking like one hell of a game.

I hope UCA wins out..I'd love to see two SLC teams get in.

[GoBlue06]

If Delaware wins out they will finish 7-4....and will need some favorable losses in the CAA to push them to the top 5...BUT the hope is still alive...AND THATS ALL I WANT!!! lol

[Fear the Bird]

If Delaware wins out they will finish 7-4....and will need some favorable losses in the CAA to push them to the top 5...BUT the hope is still alive...AND THATS ALL I WANT!!! lol

A team with only 6 D1 wins has never made the playoffs which is where UD would be sitting and I don't think wins over Richmond and Nova are going to excite anybody at this point. The thought remains that every rule is made to be broken, but I'm not sure Delaware has the case to be made with their best win looking like Old Dominion at this point.

[GannonFan]

A team with only 6 D1 wins has never made the playoffs which is where UD would be sitting and I don't think wins over Richmond and Nova are going to excite anybody at this point. The thought remains that every rule is made to be broken, but I'm not sure Delaware has the case to be made with their best win looking like Old Dominion at this point.

There is no "rule" about 7 DI wins, just a cautionary statement for those without 7 DI wins, so there is no rule to be broken. I think you'll see a 6 DI win team get into the playoffs at some point, I just don't think it's this UD team. CAA just isn't good enough this year to get them in and be the first 6 DI win team to get in. And considering that Towson beat ODU, UD's best win is probably Towson right now, then ODU.

[Fear the Bird]

There is no "rule" about 7 DI wins, just a cautionary statement for those without 7 DI wins, so there is no rule to be broken. I think you'll see a 6 DI win team get into the playoffs at some point, I just don't think it's this UD team. CAA just isn't good enough this year to get them in and be the first 6 DI win team to get in. And considering that Towson beat ODU, UD's best win is probably Towson right now, then ODU.

Exactly the point i was trying to make - maybe could have worded it better

[NDB]

There is so much that could happen in the CAA in the next three weeks, prognosticators could write a dissertation and still not cover everything.

[andy7171]

Is Delaware still mathematically in the running for the CAA AQ?

[GannonFan]

Is Delaware still mathematically in the running for the CAA AQ?

Mathematically to tie maybe, but probably not to win. Maine would need to lose out (might lose a few, but I doubt they'd lose all three) and even then Maine beat UD head to head and even if there are other teams tied, UD would likely have the DII game rule them out of auto-bid consideration. We're not really planning anything for the playoffs here, just playing out the string and noting what would be a tremendously unlikely possibility.

[Fear the Bird]

Is Delaware still mathematically in the running for the CAA AQ?

No - UD can at best get to 5-3 in conference - Maine would have to lose out, which would give Towson and UNH their 5th wins in conference - Towson plays UNH on 11/12, guaranteeing somebody a 6th CAA win

[ysubigred]

4 not counting NDSU. Their could be 5 MVC teams with 7 D1 wins I believe. YSU ISUr ISUb NDSU UNI

If YSU beats UNI or NDSU they easily attain 7.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/2754/youngstown-state-penguins

Damn!! You guys are a little slow!! I posted this last week and no one paid attention to it xtroublex

NDSU beat UNI so we'll be down to 4 team's in "IF" YSU and ISU (b)&(r) win out.xprayx I don't think UNI will get in at 7-4? xcoffeex

27 Oct 11: What would really throw a big curve ball in all this mess is "IF" YSU, ISU both B and R win out. Could the MVFC get 5 bids for the playoff's?? WOW!! 5 teams @ 8-3


28 Oct 11: Do you all realize (BIG) "IF" YSU, ISU (r) and (b) all win out and UNI beats NDSU this week we'll all end up 8-3 as long as UNI and NDSU take care of business other than the games they have left with us and ISU (R~B).

Bottom line: 5 8-3 MVFC teams who all goes to the playoff's and who's left out? OR do we all go?

[Dallas Demon]

UCA vs NW State is looking like one hell of a game.

I hope UCA wins out..I'd love to see two SLC teams get in.

Folks, not sure why everyone has completely overlooked 5-3 Northwestern State. The Demons can win out and not only win at least a share of the SLC but get the autobid. The only losses are against #1 LSU, a very good SMU team, and a narrow 2 point loss early in the season to then top 20-ranked and rival McNeese. Also is a win over current #1 Division II Delta State, not a pushover by any means. Along with a string of wins over Southland schools, the Demons just beat a Texas State team on their turf that was previously undefeated at home.

The Demons, like Sam Houston, control their own destiny. The game this weekend against Central Arkansas will either set up a potential Southland championship game at Sam Houston the following weekend with the Demons or make Central Arkansas the clear #2 team in the conference. This weekend is huge.

If Northwestern State wins out, we get the autobid with an 8-3 record and Sam Houston would get an at-large bid, assuming they don't collapse the last 3 weeks of the season. In this scenario, the Southland would have two teams in the playoffs. If Central Arkansas wins out, it would be very difficult to not include them with an 8-3 record, especially with two losses to FBS schools (one in OT) and only one Southland/FCS loss to Sam Houston.

[MSUBobcat]

Folks, not sure why everyone has completely overlooked 5-3 Northwestern State. The Demons can win out and not only win at least a share of the SLC but get the autobid. The only losses are against #1 LSU, a very good SMU team, and a narrow 2 point loss early in the season to rival McNeese. Also is a win over current #1 Division II Delta State, not a pushover by any means.

The Demons, like Sam Houston, control their own destiny. The game this weekend against Central Arkansas will either set up a potential Southland championship game at Sam Houston the following weekend with the Demons or make Central Arkansas the clear #2 team in the conference. This weekend is huge.

If Northwestern State wins out, we get the autobid with an 8-3 record and Sam Houston would get an at-large bid, assuming they don't collapse the last 3 weeks of the season. In this scenario, the Southland would have two teams in the playoffs. If Central Arkansas wins out, it would be very difficult to not include them with an 8-3 record, especially with an OT loss to an FBS school and potentially only one Southland loss to Sam Houston.

No offense intended but I wouldn't be talking up a 1 pt win at home over a D-II school. Its a game you are expected to win. If you win out, you make the playoffs. Given that an upcoming road game @ SHSU, who is undefeated and has an FBS win, is in your path to making the playoff, I think that is why most are overlooking the Demons.

[Dallas Demon]

No offense intended but I wouldn't be talking up a 1 pt win at home over a D-II school. Its a game you are expected to win. If you win out, you make the playoffs. Given that an upcoming road game @ SHSU, who is undefeated and has an FBS win, is in your path to making the playoff, I think that is why most are overlooking the Demons.

Not "talking" up a win against a Division II opponent, just indicating that our schedule has included playing top competition at all levels outside of the conference including the top FBS team and the top Division II team. Some teams - for example Montana State, scheduled cakewalk teams such as Minot State - offense intended. Yes, we will need to win out to make the playoffs, it is a possibility. That was the point I was trying to make, we weren't even listed even though we control our own destiny.

[danefan]

I think picking the field is going to be pretty easy this year.

Anyone from the power conferences (CAA, Socon, MVFC or Big Sky) with 7 DI wins is in. Anyone from the GWFC with 8 DI wins is in. That likely won't fill all 10 at-large spots.

Next in line are 8+ win teams from the OVC and Southland and Lehigh if they lose to G'Town and 7 DI wins from the GWFC. Likely you'll fill the entire field here.

If that doesn't fill the bracket then they'll run down the remaining teams from the MEAC, PL and NEC with 8 or 9 DI wins. Big South would fall into this category but both SBU and Liberty have to win out to get 7 DI wins and if either does they'll be the AQ - so not at-large potential for the Big South. Unlikely the committee will need to get to this level.

Then they'll look at the winner of the PFL. Extremely unlikely they'll get to this level.

[GaSouthern]

Does Furman need to beat Florida to get in the playoffs or just win their remaining FCS games?

[danefan]

Does Furman need to beat Florida to get in the playoffs or just win their remaining FCS games?

I think they're a lock if they beat Elon and App State, regardless of the Florida game.

[van]

I think picking the field is going to be pretty easy this year.

Anyone from the power conferences (CAA, Socon, MVFC or Big Sky) with 7 DI wins is in. Anyone from the GWFC with 8 DI wins is in. That likely won't fill all 10 at-large spots.

Next in line are 8+ win teams from the OVC and Southland and Lehigh if they lose to G'Town and 7 DI wins from the GWFC. Likely you'll fill the entire field here.

If that doesn't fill the bracket then they'll run down the remaining teams from the MEAC, PL and NEC with 8 or 9 DI wins. Big South would fall into this category but both SBU and Liberty have to win out to get 7 DI wins and if either does they'll be the AQ - so not at-large potential for the Big South. Unlikely the committee will need to get to this level.

Then they'll look at the winner of the PFL. Extremely unlikely they'll get to this level.

I think first 18 are pretty easy, 2 from big sky, 1 from OVC, 4 from Colonial, 3 from Miss Valley, 1 from Southland, 1 from NE, 1 from MEAC, 3 from Southern, 1 from Big south and 1 from Patriot.

Last 2 are a crap shoot right now. Should know more after this weekend. An upset of the favorite in the Southland or Patriot could get 2 from those conferences.

[BEAR]

Folks, not sure why everyone has completely overlooked 5-3 Northwestern State. The Demons can win out and not only win at least a share of the SLC but get the autobid. The only losses are against #1 LSU, a very good SMU team, and a narrow 2 point loss early in the season to then top 20-ranked and rival McNeese. Also is a win over current #1 Division II Delta State, not a pushover by any means. Along with a string of wins over Southland schools, the Demons just beat a Texas State team on their turf that was previously undefeated at home.

The Demons, like Sam Houston, control their own destiny. The game this weekend against Central Arkansas will either set up a potential Southland championship game at Sam Houston the following weekend with the Demons or make Central Arkansas the clear #2 team in the conference. This weekend is huge.

If Northwestern State wins out, we get the autobid with an 8-3 record and Sam Houston would get an at-large bid, assuming they don't collapse the last 3 weeks of the season. In this scenario, the Southland would have two teams in the playoffs. If Central Arkansas wins out, it would be very difficult to not include them with an 8-3 record, especially with two losses to FBS schools (one in OT) and only one Southland/FCS loss to Sam Houston.

Da*n you Demon fans know your stuff. xbowx The Southland has potentially 3 tough teams this year in Sam, UCA and NWST. It'll be a shame to see any of them not get in..except for Sam who should be in no matter what. Demons, there's a bear in your backyard and he wants a shot at the playoffs...xlolx

[McNeese72]

Folks, not sure why everyone has completely overlooked 5-3 Northwestern State. The Demons can win out and not only win at least a share of the SLC but get the autobid. The only losses are against #1 LSU, a very good SMU team, and a narrow 2 point loss early in the season to then top 20-ranked and rival McNeese. Also is a win over current #1 Division II Delta State, not a pushover by any means. Along with a string of wins over Southland schools, the Demons just beat a Texas State team on their turf that was previously undefeated at home.

The Demons, like Sam Houston, control their own destiny. The game this weekend against Central Arkansas will either set up a potential Southland championship game at Sam Houston the following weekend with the Demons or make Central Arkansas the clear #2 team in the conference. This weekend is huge.

If Northwestern State wins out, we get the autobid with an 8-3 record and Sam Houston would get an at-large bid, assuming they don't collapse the last 3 weeks of the season. In this scenario, the Southland would have two teams in the playoffs. If Central Arkansas wins out, it would be very difficult to not include them with an 8-3 record, especially with two losses to FBS schools (one in OT) and only one Southland/FCS loss to Sam Houston.

I was coming on here to make this very point. I'd like to see the Demons win out because it would be the best scenario for the SLC to get two teams in. And I'd like a Louisiana team to get a share of the championship.

Good luck,
Doc

[Bearkat-Backer]

I was coming on here to make this very point. I'd like to see the Demons win out because it would be the best scenario for the SLC to get two teams in. And I'd like a Louisiana team to get a share of the championship.

Good luck,
Doc

I have to disagree with that one. I think the Bears have a better shot at an at-large bid if they win out. If the Bears win out there only FCS loss is to Sam who is a top 5 team right now. If the Demons win out their FCS loss will have been to the Cowboys who are having a very down year. Plus they would have beaten Sam which will make everyone else say "See I told you Sam wasn't that good". The best shot the SLC has at getting two in is if both Sam and UCA win out. xtwocentsx

[Dallas Demon]

I have to disagree with that one. I think the Bears have a better shot at an at-large bid if they win out. If the Bears win out there only FCS loss is to Sam who is a top 5 team right now. If the Demons win out their FCS loss will have been to the Cowboys who are having a very down year. Plus they would have beaten Sam which will make everyone else say "See I told you Sam wasn't that good". The best shot the SLC has at getting two in is if both Sam and UCA win out. xtwocentsx

Bearkat-Backer, if the Demons win out we not only win at least a share of the SLC but also get the autobid. There is no subjectivity to this one. xnodx

Why would a win by the Demons (assuming we win out) make people say "See I told you Sam wasn't that good"? We would be 8-3 with out only losses to #1 LSU and a very good SMU FBS team in addition to McNeese.

[McNeese72]

I have to disagree with that one. I think the Bears have a better shot at an at-large bid if they win out. If the Bears win out there only FCS loss is to Sam who is a top 5 team right now. If the Demons win out their FCS loss will have been to the Cowboys who are having a very down year. Plus they would have beaten Sam which will make everyone else say "See I told you Sam wasn't that good". The best shot the SLC has at getting two in is if both Sam and UCA win out. xtwocentsx

You are saying the Bearkats wouldn't get an at-large bid if NWST wins out and gets the autobid???


Doc

[BEAR]

Bearkat-Backer, if the Demons win out we not only win at least a share of the SLC but also get the autobid. There is no subjectivity to this one. xnodx

So if the Demons win out, they beat Sam but lose to McNeese, a team that Sam beat? xeyebrowx How would the Demons get the AQ? Because they beat Sam who beat a team they lost to? xlolx

[Squealofthepig]

You are saying the Bearkats wouldn't get an at-large bid if NWST wins out and gets the autobid???


Doc

No, he's taking issue with the statistical probability, and provided a scenario where two teams are more likely to get in.

[Bearkat-Backer]

I think it is more likely that UCA and Sam get in than it is that the Demons and Sam get in and even more likley that only Sam gets in. Northwestern has UCA, @SHSU and SFA left . UCA plays in Hammond then has Texas State at home. If I were to bet on who has the better shot at running the table I would put my money on UCA, but thats just me.

[MSUBobcat]

Not "talking" up a win against a Division II opponent, just indicating that our schedule has included playing top competition at all levels outside of the conference including the top FBS team and the top Division II team. Some teams - for example Montana State, scheduled cakewalk teams such as Minot State - offense intended. Yes, we will need to win out to make the playoffs, it is a possibility. That was the point I was trying to make, we weren't even listed even though we control our own destiny.

The point I was trying to make is that, though you control your own destiny, most people think NWST loses to UCA or on the road against a top ranked SHSU, either of which eliminates having to include them in the playoff discussion. Win this week and we'll probably see them included in some playoff prognostication threads. Win both and it's a definite.

FWIW, NWST played a top notch D-II school (won at home by 1) and played 2 FBS schools (got blown out in both), but their FCS schedule to date is pretty weak and includes a home loss to McNeese. Not really a playoff quality resume at this point.

[TTUEagles]

So if the Demons win out, they beat Sam but lose to McNeese, a team that Sam beat? xeyebrowx How would the Demons get the AQ? Because they beat Sam who beat a team they lost to? xlolx

If McNeese already has 2 conference losses, they won't figure into breaking the tie between 2 one-loss teams... It would go to head-to-head.

[BEAR]

Oh.. that makes sense. Still have to scratch my head on that one but ok. xlolx

[Bearkat-Backer]

If McNeese already has 2 conference losses, they won't figure into breaking the tie between 2 one-loss teams... It would go to head-to-head.

Of course this is assuming that the Demons beat UCA, SHSU and SFA.

[BEAR]

I bet Sam is hoping UCA wins this weekend and hands the OUTRIGHT conference championship to them. The next week UCA will play Texas State at UCA and it doesn't count toward conference so the Bears have nothing to lose conference-wise (playoff-wise yes). xlolx

[Bearkat-Backer]

I bet Sam is hoping UCA wins this weekend and hands the OUTRIGHT conference championship to them. The next week UCA will play Texas State at UCA and it doesn't count toward conference so the Bears have nothing to lose conference-wise (playoff-wise yes). xlolx

If UCA beats Northwestern State and Sam loses to them then UCA would be Conference Co-Champions, but Sam wold get the auto-bid. Both would be 6-1 in SLC play. It seams silly, but that is how the SLC does it.

[Dallas Demon]

If UCA beats Northwestern State and Sam loses to them then UCA would be Conference Co-Champions, but Sam wold get the auto-bid. Both would be 6-1 in SLC play. It seams silly, but that is how the SLC does it.

Why would that be silly? Sam would win by virtue of a head-to-head win over UCA with both teams having one loss in the conference. Northwestern would have at least 2 losses. In a two-way tie, it makes perfect sense for the winner of the head-to-head game to get the autobid.

[BEAR]

If UCA beats Northwestern State and Sam loses to them then UCA would be Conference Co-Champions, but Sam wold get the auto-bid. Both would be 6-1 in SLC play. It seams silly, but that is how the SLC does it.

Of all the combinations, I thought Sam would win it outright even with a loss to Northwestern due to the fact that Sam beat UCA. So UCA has to beat Northwestern the week before the Demons take on Sam? How do you beat a team, ruin their shot at the playoffs and the conference championship, and expect them to give their best effort against their next opponent who can deny you a share of the conference championship? Looks like a Win-Lose / Lose-Lose situation to me! xlolx

[Dallas Demon]

Of course this is assuming that the Demons beat UCA, SHSU and SFA.

and also assuming that Sam beats Southeastern and Northwestern.

[Bearkat-Backer]

Why would that be silly? Sam would win by virtue of a head-to-head win over UCA with both teams having one loss in the conference. Northwestern would have at least 2 losses. In a two-way tie, it makes perfect sense for the winner of the head-to-head game to get the autobid.

Sam getting the autobid is not the silly part. Being a "Co-Champion" along with a team that you beat in a head-to-head match-up is the silly part.


and also assuming that Sam beats Southeastern and Northwestern.

Very true.

[Dallas Demon]

Of all the combinations, I thought Sam would win it outright even with a loss to Northwestern due to the fact that Sam beat UCA. So UCA has to beat Northwestern the week before the Demons take on Sam? How do you beat a team, ruin their shot at the playoffs and the conference championship, and expect them to give their best effort against their next opponent who can deny you a share of the conference championship? Looks like a Win-Lose / Lose-Lose situation to me! xlolx

I say "why even try" if you are the Bears, thanks for putting it so succinctly! :-)

[Dallas Demon]

The point I was trying to make is that, though you control your own destiny, most people think NWST loses to UCA or on the road against a top ranked SHSU, either of which eliminates having to include them in the playoff discussion. Win this week and we'll probably see them included in some playoff prognostication threads. Win both and it's a definite.

FWIW, NWST played a top notch D-II school (won at home by 1) and played 2 FBS schools (got blown out in both), but their FCS schedule to date is pretty weak and includes a home loss to McNeese. Not really a playoff quality resume at this point.

I actually like Montana St. but I have to respond to your statements in kind. Northwestern State's schedule weak? Contrast with Montana St., this is a horribly weak schedule up to this point. How is this a playoff worthy slate?

Overall opponent wins/losses: (25-50)

Utah (4-4)
UC Davis (2-6)
Minot St. (2-6)
Eastern Washington (4-5)
Sacramento St. (3-5)
Portland St. (5-3)
Northern Arizona (3-5)
Northern Colorado (0-9)
Idaho St. (2-7)

[Dallas Demon]

Sam getting the autobid is not the silly part. Being a "Co-Champion" along with a team that you beat in a head-to-head match-up is the silly part.

I agree totally with you there. When we beat Sam in 2004 and ended up "sharing" the SLC with Sam that same year AND getting put on the road while Sam played at home in the playoffs, we (Demon fans) were all beside ourselves and thought it was unfair. But your AD was on the panel of voters and unfortunately we couldn't do anything about it. It didn't make sense then and it wouldn't make sense now regardless of the teams.

[BEAR]

All I got to say is even if we beat the Demons, I want the Demons to go out there and beat Sam. xlolx xprayx xprayx xprayx xlolx

[Dallas Demon]

All I got to say is even if we beat the Demons, I want the Demons to go out there and beat Sam. xlolx xprayx xprayx xprayx xlolx

You coming down for the game?

[BEAR]

You coming down for the game?

I have plans to. Never been. Just a few hours away so it's likely I'll be there. xthumbsupx

[CopperCat]

I actually like Montana St. but I have to respond to your statements in kind. Northwestern State's schedule weak? Contrast with Montana St., this is a horribly weak schedule up to this point. How is this a playoff worthy slate?

Overall opponent wins/losses: (25-50)

Utah (4-4)
UC Davis (2-6)
Minot St. (2-6)
Eastern Washington (4-5) Defending national champs with one of the best QB's in the FCS. #1 passing offense in the FCS.
Sacramento St. (3-5)
Portland St. (5-3) #4 Rushing offense in the country.
Northern Arizona (3-5) Zach Bauman is the #4 man in individual rushing stats.
Northern Colorado (0-9)
Idaho St. (2-7)

Bottom line: you need to do a little more than look at just W-L records. I won't be the first to say that the Big Sky is down this year, but I would also not be the first to say that it is vastly better than the Southland.

[Dallas Demon]

Bottom line: you need to do a little more than look at just W-L records. I won't be the first to say that the Big Sky is down this year, but I would also not be the first to say that it is vastly better than the Southland.

Based on what comparison facts this year? Montana St. has 2 games remaining on the regular schedule - Weber (3-5) and Montana (7-2). By Montana's standards, they are having a bad year. Sorry, but "I know we are vastly better" just doesn't hack it.

[veinup]

Based on what comparison facts this year? Montana St. has 2 games remaining on the regular schedule - Weber (3-5) and Montana (7-2). By Montana's standards, they are having a bad year. Sorry, but "I know we are vastly better" just doesn't hack it.

i think most griz fans are witnessing a better year than we expected. roper and selle graduated, chase reynolds graduated.. the list goes on. add on to that the fact that we got a new coach last year and failed to make the playoffs for the first time since forever, you could understand some skepticism going into this year. but if you look at where the griz are right now i think you'd be wrong to say that we're a weak opponent, or that MSU will have any kind of easy time handling UM in bozeman. if they beat the griz in three weeks, that is a huge, huge, quality victory.

[Dallas Demon]

i think most griz fans are witnessing a better year than we expected. roper and selle graduated, chase reynolds graduated.. the list goes on. add on to that the fact that we got a new coach last year and failed to make the playoffs for the first time since forever, you could understand some skepticism going into this year. but if you look at where the griz are right now i think you'd be wrong to say that we're a weak opponent, or that MSU will have any kind of easy time handling UM in bozeman. if they beat the griz in three weeks, that is a huge, huge, quality victory.

I didn't say Montana was weak. I said the Montana team up to this point is no comparison to the normal Montana teams we are used to. When is the last time Montana has lost to Sacramento State before this year? This is not your big brother's Montana team. Maybe it will get there by the end of the year, but not just yet.

[veinup]

I didn't say Montana was weak. I said the Montana team up to this point is no comparison to the normal Montana teams we are used to. When is the last time Montana has lost to Sacramento State before this year? This is not your big brother's Montana team. Maybe it will get there by the end of the year, but not just yet.

last time montana lost to sac state was something like sixteen years ago, if i remember correctly. what does that say about montana's football program? you play somebody 20 times, you're probably going to lose once, no matter who you are. didn't sac beat an FBS team this year as well?

the montana team that i've been following since i was 12 has been (at least in conference play) absolutely dominant. this year, are we that dominant team? no, but we've only got one conference loss and are generally considered to be a top 10 team in the country. i think you are severely underestimating the grizzlies.

edit: just to reiterate my point, if MSU beats UM in bozeman, that is a huge win against a top ten team in the nation. if they beat the hell out of montana, even more impressive. i just don't see that happening.

[Dallas Demon]

last time montana lost to sac state was something like sixteen years ago, if i remember correctly. what does that say about montana's football program? you play somebody 20 times, you're probably going to lose once, no matter who you are. didn't sac beat an FBS team this year as well?

the montana team that i've been following since i was 12 has been (at least in conference play) absolutely dominant. this year, are we that dominant team? no, but we've only got one conference loss and are generally considered to be a top 10 team in the country. i think you are severely underestimating the grizzlies.

edit: just to reiterate my point, if MSU beats UM in bozeman, that is a huge win against a top ten team in the nation. if they beat the hell out of montana, even more impressive. i just don't see that happening.

You could be right. I just don't ever remember a year where Montana was behind trying to catch up from start to near finish. Usually it's Montana and then the others fighting for the 2/3rd spot.

[veinup]

You could be right. I just don't ever remember a year where Montana was behind trying to catch up from start to near finish. Usually it's Montana and then the others fighting for the 2/3rd spot.

true enough. until last season we had won outright or shared the big sky title something like 14 years in a row. we're in position this season to do that again. has it been certain at any point? not at all. but ultimately, we're in close to the same position that we always have been. an elite team in conference, most likely heading to the playoffs with at least one game at home.

[CopperCat]

last time montana lost to sac state was something like sixteen years ago, if i remember correctly. what does that say about montana's football program? you play somebody 20 times, you're probably going to lose once, no matter who you are. didn't sac beat an FBS team this year as well?

the montana team that i've been following since i was 12 has been (at least in conference play) absolutely dominant. this year, are we that dominant team? no, but we've only got one conference loss and are generally considered to be a top 10 team in the country. i think you are severely underestimating the grizzlies.

edit: just to reiterate my point, if MSU beats UM in bozeman, that is a huge win against a top ten team in the nation. if they beat the hell out of montana, even more impressive. i just don't see that happening.

AND the bobcats for that matter. But I wouldn't expect anyone to give them any kind of credence after what happened last year during the playoffs.

[veinup]

AND the bobcats for that matter. But I wouldn't expect anyone to give them any kind of credence after what happened last year during the playoffs.

anyone underestimating the cats at this point is being foolish. look at the numbers, the record, the rankings. they are a legit title contender, no matter what happened last season.

[Silenoz]

I didn't say Montana was weak. I said the Montana team up to this point is no comparison to the normal Montana teams we are used to. When is the last time Montana has lost to Sacramento State before this year? This is not your big brother's Montana team. Maybe it will get there by the end of the year, but not just yet.

Never

[veinup]

Never

? never what ?

[Squealofthepig]

Never

It's wonderful, isn't it, when a naysayers' criticism is predicated on the ONLY loss you've ever suffered, on the road, to a conference foe, came this season. The Griz are now 7-1 against Sac State IN THEIR OWN STADIUM! The sky is falling!

[katstrapper]

I think it is more likely that UCA and Sam get in than it is that the Demons and Sam get in and even more likley that only Sam gets in. Northwestern has UCA, @SHSU and SFA left . UC A plays in Hammond then has Texas State at home. If I were to bet on who has the better shot at running the table I would put my money on UCA, but thats just me.

I think the only way SLC would get two teams in playoffs is just what he said, if NW St wins out. NW St would win SLC and AQ and SHSU more likely would get the autobid.

That being said, the only way SHSU gets a top 4 seed is if Kats win out, and thats not even a guarantee. SHSU could possibly go 11-0 and only be a #5.

[BEAR]

I think the only way SLC would get two teams in playoffs is just what he said, if NW St wins out. NW St would win SLC and AQ and SHSU more likely would get the autobid.

That being said, the only way SHSU gets a top 4 seed is if Kats win out, and thats not even a guarantee. SHSU could possibly go 11-0 and only be a #5.

I think if UCA wins out they would have a strong argument for an at-large:

1. 7 wins in a row.
2. 2 FBS losses, one in overtime to second place WAC team and one to (soon to be) Sunbelt champion.
3. Only one FCS loss to an undefeated Sam Houston team.
4. Not that this fact matters but the Oline and defense is finally healthy enough to play starters. xlolx

The FBS losses were expected. The Sam game was likely a loss due to Sam being so good but I believe it would have been much closer with our healthy starting Oline, a starting QB, and more than a week after our overtime loss to La. Tech. That's just my thoughts on it...of course being a fan of the team I'm hoping it's enough. xlolx

[Dallas Demon]

I think if UCA wins out they would have a strong argument for an at-large:

1. 7 wins in a row.
2. 2 FBS losses, one in overtime to second place WAC team and one to (soon to be) Sunbelt champion.
3. Only one FCS loss to an undefeated Sam Houston team.
4. Not that this fact matters but the Oline and defense is finally healthy enough to play starters. xlolx

The FBS losses were expected. The Sam game was likely a loss due to Sam being so good but I believe it would have been much closer with our healthy starting Oline, a starting QB, and more than a week after our overtime loss to La. Tech.

If UCA wins out they are in, this is a no-brainer. xnodx

[BEAR]

If UCA wins out they are in, this is a no-brainer. xnodx

Same with Northwestern State. Obvious placement on that one. xlolx

[HIU 93]

The MEAC will only get one team in, whoever wins the autobid.

Which is really sad because both Norfolk State (man, I hate saying anything good about them!xlolx ) and Bethune Cookman can play with anybody in the country- when they want to.

I don't know about the only one in, because we are going to probably have co-champions AGAIN this year. BCU has two conference losses this year and NSU only has one, and both look like they will win out. How is this co-champs? Well, NSU's one loss is to BCU.

I would like to see both of them in, but if the committee does what they normally do- it looks like, as you predicted, only one. If it is only one, it should be NSU (Dangit! There I go again!xlolx).

[Bearkat-Backer]

If UCA wins out they are in, this is a no-brainer. xnodx

The Henderson State game hurts UCA because they can only get to 7 DI wins now. If they had 8 they would be a no-brainer, but with 7 I think they are on the bubble.

[MSUBobcat]

I actually like Montana St. but I have to respond to your statements in kind. Northwestern State's schedule weak? Contrast with Montana St., this is a horribly weak schedule up to this point. How is this a playoff worthy slate?

Overall opponent wins/losses: (23-44)

Utah (4-4)
UC Davis (2-6)
Eastern Washington (4-5)
Sacramento St. (3-5)
Portland St. (5-3)
Northern Arizona (3-5)
Northern Colorado (0-9)
Idaho St. (2-7)

Other than what FTG already wrote about EWU, PSU and NAU, I think you are selling the quality of the teams a little short, based on record. The stretch from UC-Davis to NAU were decent teams, ranging from #121 to 161 in the Sagarin rankings, which none of NW State's FCS opponents to date can say. I admit UNC and ISU are cupcakes, but every conference has bottom feeders. You have your Nicolls, Lamar and SE Louis, which are all in the 200's in Sagarin.

What makes it playoff quality is that we won them all and are atop the standings in our conference, which basically everyone agrees will get 2 bids. If we win one of the next 2 games (both of which we are the favorites in), we are in the playoffs as at least an at-large. My statement had nothing to do with your strength of schedule to this point, and I wasn't talking smack. It was that I think you are not being included in playoff discussion because you have to win ALL of your remaining games just to reach 7 D-I wins (drawback of scheduling 2 FBS games), which also gives you the AQ. IMO, people look at the schedule, hosting a good UCA team and going on the road to an undefeated SHSU, and figure that one of the 2 will be a loss, eliminating NW State from playoff discussion. Win this weekend and you will be on more people's radar. Beat SHSU and you will be in everyone's playoff discussions. I wish them luck, as an SHSU loss can only help our seeding. xpeacex

[Dallas Demon]

Other than what FTG already wrote about EWU, PSU and NAU, I think you are selling the quality of the teams a little short, based on record. The stretch from UC-Davis to NAU were decent teams, ranging from #121 to 161 in the Sagarin rankings, which none of NW State's FCS opponents to date can say. I admit UNC and ISU are cupcakes, but every conference has bottom feeders. You have your Nicolls, Lamar and SE Louis, which are all in the 200's in Sagarin.

What makes it playoff quality is that we won them all and are atop the standings in our conference, which basically everyone agrees will get 2 bids. If we win one of the next 2 games (both of which we are the favorites in), we are in the playoffs as at least an at-large. My statement had nothing to do with your strength of schedule to this point, and I wasn't talking smack. It was that I think you are not being included in playoff discussion because you have to win ALL of your remaining games just to reach 7 D-I wins (drawback of scheduling 2 FBS games), which also gives you the AQ. IMO, people look at the schedule, hosting a good UCA team and going on the road to an undefeated SHSU, and figure that one of the 2 will be a loss, eliminating NW State from playoff discussion. Win this weekend and you will be on more people's radar. Beat SHSU and you will be in everyone's playoff discussions. I wish them luck, as an SHSU loss can only help our seeding. xpeacex

Yes, I'll be going week to week. If we lose against UCA, Sam, or SFA, my points won't matter a single bit. I'm just glad that I can have this discussion in November and hope that I can continue each week!

I'm glad to see Montana St. doing so well, I've thought you have had a good program and wish you luck moving forward in the playoffs.

[BEAR]

The Henderson State game hurts UCA because they can only get to 7 DI wins now. If they had 8 they would be a no-brainer, but with 7 I think they are on the bubble.

2 FBS teams > 1 D2 Team?

[Dallas Demon]

2 FBS teams > 1 D2 Team?

No brainer!

[BEAR]

Ah forget it. I'll just keep my fingers crossed and let the fates decide. xlolx

[caribbeanhen]

do you guys miss all the Hen fans this year?:D

[Dallas Demon]

do you guys miss all the Hen fans this year?:D

Good point, where are they?

[ysubigred]

Good point, where are they?

Uggghhh!!! Replaced by the Bison fans LOL!! xshakingmadxxbabycryx

[bjtheflamesfan]

Here are the games that likely will decide autobids if everything holds station this week:

Big Sky
Montana vs. Montana State

Big South
Liberty vs. Stony Brook

Colonial
Maine vs. New Hampshire

MEAC
Norfolk State vs. Morgan State (Week 11)

Missouri Valley
None (NDSU can clinch the autobid with a win and UNI loss any of the last three weeks or by winning out)

Northeast
None (Albany can win out and clinch the autobid or clinches with a Duquesne loss)

Ohio Valley
Tennessee Tech vs. Eastern Kentucky (if Jacksonville State beats EKU this weekend then Tennessee Tech secures the autobid with two wins. If Both TTU and EKU lose this week, this game is for the outright championship because TTU holds the H2H over JSU)

Patriot

Lehigh vs. Georgetown
OR
Lehigh vs. Holy Cross (If Lehigh wins this game then the above game will be for the autobid)

Southern
Georgia Southern vs. Wofford (If Furman knocks off App State this weekend then this game will be for the autobid. If App State wins then it gets interesting...)

Southland
Northwestern State vs. Sam Houston State

[TTUEagles]

Ohio Valley
Tennessee Tech vs. Eastern Kentucky (if Jacksonville State beats EKU this weekend then Tennessee Tech secures the autobid with two wins. If Both TTU and EKU lose this week, this game is for the outright championship because TTU holds the H2H over JSU)


I know no one gives a d*mn about the OVC but, technically UTM (2 conf. loses) is still "in." It wouldn't suprise me to see UTM beat EKU on the last game of the season.
TTU would most likely have to win all 3 of its games to get the autobid - I don't know off of the top of my head who wins a 3 or 4-way tiebreaker (JSU, EKU & TTU all have 1 conf. loss). TTU has Murray then @ EKU, then APSUx but, EKU has Jax St., TTU @ UTM

[Dallas Demon]

I know no one gives a d*mn about the OVC but, technically UTM (2 conf. loses) is still "in." It wouldn't suprise me to see UTM beat EKU on the last game of the season.
TTU would most likely have to win all 3 of its games to get the autobid - I don't know off of the top of my head who wins a 3 or 4-way tiebreaker (JSU, EKU & TTU all have 1 conf. loss). TTU has Murray then @ EKU, then APSUx but, EKU has Jax St., TTU @ UTM

"1975 OVC Football Champions "

You are halarious, that is a good subtle one!

[bjtheflamesfan]

At this point with the win over JSU, TTU is in the drivers seat for the autobid out of the OVC. If they do win it, they could be a two bid league with JSU getting an at-large (which may snatch one from one of the power conference teams. For JSU to win the auto, they need to win out and then have The TTU-EKU winner lose one other game. For TTU to win the auto all they have to do is win out. For EKU to win the auto, they have to win out. For UTM to get the auto, they have to win their final two conference games AND have all three teams in front of them (JSU, TTU and EKU) lose two of their last three games

[MTfan4life]

At this point with the win over JSU, TTU is in the drivers seat for the autobid out of the OVC. If they do win it, they could be a two bid league with JSU getting an at-large (which may snatch one from one of the power conference teams. For JSU to win the auto, they need to win out and then have The TTU-EKU winner lose one other game. For TTU to win the auto all they have to do is win out. For EKU to win the auto, they have to win out. For UTM to get the auto, they have to win their final two conference games AND have all three teams in front of them (JSU, TTU and EKU) lose two of their last three games

Eastern Kentucky is also in the driver's seat for the auto-bid. They control their own destiny and don't need any help from other teams as long as they win three games.

[bjtheflamesfan]

TTU and EKU are the only ones who can control their own destiny at this point, which is why I pretty much classified the TTU-EKU game in Week 11 as the "OVC Championship Game"...especially if the Colonels can knock off JSU this Saturday. If JSU wins, then all TTU has to do is win over EKU and they get the autobid because they have the H2H over JSU and UTM.

[caribbeanhen]

Good point, where are they?

a few are still here www.gohens.net