Playoff Sleeper Teams

[knucklehead]

If you are a fan of a "Locked-in" playoff team or seed, are there any sleeper teams you are watching or afraid of? Towson, Liberty, Lehigh, anyone?

[Skjellyfetti]

Chattanooga

[I-16Bandit]

^^ I second Chatty. Wouldn't want to see them in the playoffs. Might be something like GSU/Wofford last year.

[Professor Chaos]

Eastern Washington... they know how it's done and they could be on as good of a roll as any team in the country come playoff time.

[LUHawker]

If you are a fan of a "Locked-in" playoff team or seed, are there any sleeper teams you are watching or afraid of? Towson, Liberty, Lehigh, anyone?
How are these teams sleepers? At least Lehigh and Liberty have been on the radar for some time now. Maybe I'm not grasping the intent of your question.

[knucklehead]

No intent, just looking for teams that might make a suprise appearance/run in the playoffs. No special intentions just starting a little banter. Sorry I forgot Chatty, they are a bit scary.

[knucklehead]

also curious if the "BIG GUNS" (the seeds) have a team they think is a matchup issue they may face in the playoffs.

[mainejeff]

JMU.

[RichH2]

hard to believe that a team that is ranked 6/7 at the moment and leads the FCS in total offense at 491 yards per game would be considered a "sleeper" at this point in time...

Agree,seems you are one of the fewstill pushing that button

[knucklehead]

The examples I gave are just that, EXAMPLES> take it for what its' worth. If not Lehigh, then Whom???

[MSUBobcat]

The examples I gave are just that, EXAMPLES> take it for what its' worth. If not Lehigh, then Whom???

I think you've lost any civil conversation from Lehigh by including them as an example, whether you meant anything by it or not. Call Lehigh anything but a high seed on the fast track to the national championship and it's like you've insulted their mother.

Since I follow the Big Sky closest, I think Eastern Washington is gonna win out, make the playoffs and surprise someone, or maybe multiple someones. I'm glad we caught them early on when they were frazzled by an unexpectedly slow start and still trying to piece it all together after winning it all the prior year.

[URMite]

How are these teams sleepers? At least Lehigh and Liberty have been on the radar for some time now. Maybe I'm not grasping the intent of your question.

I don't think he meant any slight. He did include his own team, Liberty, I believe. But I do agree that I'm not sure of his criteria. Normally sleepers are teams with 3 or 4 losses that people are assuming will be one and done but shouldn't. But his examples seem more like teams that haven't won a lot of games in the playoffs the last decade but might this year.

[jhanel]

Northwestern State

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Illinois State

They have a very good run defense. If they get in they could ride their defense and surprise a few teams.

[knucklehead]

YES! Either criteria works! We are getting some good response now!

I don't think he meant any slight. He did include his own team, Liberty, I believe. But I do agree that I'm not sure of his criteria. Normally sleepers are teams with 3 or 4 losses that people are assuming will be one and done but shouldn't. But his examples seem more like teams that haven't won a lot of games in the playoffs the last decade but might this year.

[asknoquarter21]

Any team that barely gets in that didn't think they would.

I look at a team like Furman or Chatty from the socon.

[jmufan999]

JMU.

Man, do we want another shot at you guys. I think it would be another great game, hopefully we'll have an answer for the offensive gameplan you guys used last time to perfection. But I think you guys are getting a seed, so I'm not going to call you a sleeper in return.

I'm not naming any teams, but we could struggle against teams with an experienced QB and great run defense. NOT good run defense against inferior competition. Again, not naming names.

The other thing that would worry me is a triple option team, because we would not have seen such an offense all year, and to my knowledge wouldn't have faced a GOOD triple option team since 2008 (sorry, VMI in 2009 was bad). Not sure how many sleeper teams run the triple option, though. Not saying there are none, just don't know every offense in America.

[M Ruler]

I dont like to get ahead of myself but if Albany wins the next 3 games they wiill clinch the berth from the NEC. I am a fan but I am not being a homer. Albany has a legit offense and will score on anyone in the tournament. They will have the two best punter/kickers in the tournament. The Defense, well thats a different story.

I think Albany will be a very dangerous opponent. They have a legit high powered offense that really started getting into gerar in the second half of the Maine game

Albany(should they win out) will be a very dangerous team to play.

[Reign of Terrier]

Fuhman, if they play like they did against Wofford for the rest of the year

[Gil Dobie]

Illinois St

[PaladinFan]

whichever team survives the Furman/UTC matchup.

[BEAR]

Northwestern State

I agree with that! As much as I'd like to see my Bears go to the playoffs, the Demons got their team ready already.

[DJKyR0]

No team that's locked in at this point should be considered a sleeper by virtue of being good enough to qualify for the playoffs this early, or needing basically one or two wins to make it in well enough. Illinois State would be a great sleeper pick - capable offense, improved defense, and a stud offensive backfield with Ashton Leggett bowling over defenders.

[Woody Hayes]

Indiana State Shakir Bell is the real deal

[FurmanWins!!]

whichever team survives the Furman/UTC matchup.


Agree, winner of the UTC vs. FU game this Saturday vaults near the top of the list.

[MSUBobcat]

frankly I don't think that the defending national champions would be considered a sleeper, particurlarly if they win out the rest of the regular season games...

Frankly, I don't care much what you think. They would still be a 7-4 who everyone basically wrote off 3 weeks into the season and people were questioning the sanity of anyone that still had EWU in their poll and by week 4 were considered dead in the water. Hell, I'm not even the only one to mention EWU and you don't criticize that opinion. Oh wait.... now I see it. I mentioned Lehigh (not even anything about the team), so you have to act like I slept with your sister and kicked the dog on the way out of the house. My bad.

[JMUNJ08]

MSU, this has absolutely nothing to do with Lehigh and maybe I will help you a little since you have a very hard time understanding simple words:

If Eastern Washington, the defending national champ, wins out, THEY WILL NOT BE A SLEEPER TEAM at the beginning of playoffs

I hope this helps

Will they have 4 losses? Check
Will they have the MINIMUM number of wins to 'qualify'? Check
Did they lose all/most of their 'big' games? Check
Were they WINLESS after 4 weeks? Check
Will they/should they be on the road to start the playoffs? Check

Sure, they are the defending champs but that was LAST year. Based on some of the above items, I would say they qualify as a sleeper team THIS year. I'm sure if we had our field of 20 teams right now that they would not be in the top 5 or maybe 10 to win it all....

[MSUBobcat]

MSU, this has absolutely nothing to do with Lehigh and maybe I will help you a little since you have a very hard time understanding simple words:

If Eastern Washington, the defending national champ, wins out, THEY WILL NOT BE A SLEEPER TEAM at the beginning of playoffs

I hope this helps

Nope, didn't help. If you truly believe that they wouldn't be a sleeper and didn't respond to my post b/c I mentioned Lehigh, why did you not say this before when it was 1st mentioned, at least an hour before my comment. That was all the way back on post #4. You posted twice (#8 & 11) between that post and mine (#24). Please tell me what criteria you are using to determine sleepers. So far I've heard teams that would have 3-4 losses (e.g. EWU) or teams that haven't won many playoff games in the last decade (e.g. Lehigh). Next time we want to start a thread for discussion, we should pm you to ask you what criteria we should use. Though if we define it by one person's criteria, it would really eliminate most of the discussion... kinda like being stuck between a rock and a hard place.

I also noticed you had to follow me to our BSC rankings thread. I don't know if I should be flattered that I give you such a hard on (or is it a wet vag), or worried about your stalking. xcrazyx

[heath]

I guess you mean sleeper based upon the odds of that team winning?I'd say Lehigh,Liberty,ODU.and Towson are sleepers because their odds of winning it all are about 20-1.On the other hand GSU might be like 3-1. Someone break it down for the top 25 like an odds maker if they have the time and knowledge.xbowx

[MSUBobcat]

Will they have 4 losses? Check
Will they have the MINIMUM number of wins to 'qualify'? Check
Did they lose all/most of their 'big' games? Check
Were they WINLESS after 4 weeks? Check
Will they/should they be on the road to start the playoffs? Check

Sure, they are the defending champs but that was LAST year. Based on some of the above items, I would say they qualify as a sleeper team THIS year. I'm sure if we had our field of 20 teams right now that they would not be in the top 5 or maybe 10 to win it all....

Damn you JMUN08, you get your logic out of here! There's no place for that. This is TheFan's party (even though he didn't start the discussion) and he decides if my opinion counts or not. Facts be damned!!!

[LUHawker]

I think you've lost any civil conversation from Lehigh by including them as an example, whether you meant anything by it or not. Call Lehigh anything but a high seed on the fast track to the national championship and it's like you've insulted their mother.



Me thinks you are extrapolating one fan's (TheFan, in this case) point of view with Lehigh fans in general. I think most Lehigh fans are more measured in our enthusiasm.

[whoanellie]

Hell's Bell's !!! If Elon wins out , Wofford, Furman & App I would say not getting in would be a total sham.
Now this is a big if,

[JMUNJ08]

Damn you JMUN08, you get your logic out of here! There's no place for that. This is TheFan's party (even though he didn't start the discussion) and he decides if my opinion counts or not. Facts be damned!!!

This is my opinion. So do not worry, your opinion may still not count in 'TheFan' land.

Just to rile him up, I do see Lehigh as a sleeper (along with my Dukes really)

[MSUBobcat]

Me thinks you are extrapolating one fan's (TheFan, in this case) point of view with Lehigh fans in general. I think most Lehigh fans are more measured in our enthusiasm.

I agree, and I'm not trying to insult or get into it with the more sane of the Lehigh fans. It did seem like your post from the 1st page took a little exception to Lehigh being used as an example by the thread's initial post, even though people have different criteria for "sleepers". If I misinterpreted that, I sincerely apologize. :oxpeacex

[heath]

so heath, based on your methodoligy, what would be the ratio whereby a team would be considered a sleeper?

10-1?
15-1?
8-1?
5-1?
20-1?

do you realize that by this method, most of the teams in the playoffs would be considered a sleeper?

do you think that this is the proper approach to determine a sleeper?

Absolutely.........unexpected success(a sleeper),what team has the most difficult time winning 4-5 games in the playoffs.Who in your wise mind is NOT a sleeper.

[TwoFeathers]

frankly I don't think that the defending national champions would be considered a sleeper, particurlarly if they win out the rest of the regular season games...

Eastern Washington is not even ranked at this point, so I'd say they are a sleeper at the moment.

[TwoFeathers]

MSU, this has absolutely nothing to do with Lehigh and maybe I will help you a little since you have a very hard time understanding simple words:

If Eastern Washington, the defending national champ, wins out, THEY WILL NOT BE A SLEEPER TEAM at the beginning of playoffs

I hope this helps

I think I get your point, but at 7-4, they will still be a lower seed, and may be considered a 'sleeper', but with a ton of momentum.

[TwoFeathers]

ah, but we are talking about EWU winning out

are you saying that if EWU wins out, they would not be in the top 25?

They should be if they win out, right?

[MSUBobcat]

EWU will not be considered a sleeper if it wins out

period

Wrong. When will you understand that not only is the term "sleeper" a matter of opinion, meaning that no one person (i.e. TheFan) can say if a team is a sleeper or not, but on top of that, your opinion means next to nothing on this forum. So even if it did come down to one person's perspective, it definitely wouldn't be yours. Period.

FWIW, my criteria for a sleeper is a dark horse, who could potentially win the whole thing but the odds are not good. I think EWU fits this criteria nicely. Ok Fan, let's see how a subjective choice based on my own criteria is somehow wrong.

[heath]

oh, ok, thanks

so, according to your methodology, only about 3 of the 20 teams will NOT be sleepers.

great stuff there

stop being a politician and answer the question, list your 3 non(NOT) sleepers then your top 3 sleepers.
You have been a pain in the a$$ of the Lehigh fans since you started posting against UD last year.
being negative is fine if you got beef, but try to make some sense

[MSUBobcat]

Bobcat, so are you saying that EWU, the defending national champion, if they win out and are riding a 7 game winning streak would be considered a "dark horse"

what kind of mixed up thinking are you doing here

How did I know you'd try to "prove" my opinion wrong. My thinking is that EWU lost 4 straight games to start the year, including the only 2 playoff-calibre teams they played. If you feel that they aren't, based on winning their last 7 games (none of which will have made the playoffs), that's your right. Last years results mean absolutely nothing.

Its an opinion, dude. Why can't I pick whoever I want if I have reasons for it? For the record, I'm not alone in calling them that and I'm betting the oddsmakers will agree at the end of the regular season.

[heath]

heath, you see it is YOU that claims only a couple of non-sleepers out of the 20 man field

you were asked what kind of odds of winning the championship would you consider to be a sleeper and never answered

so answer it now

and stop with the personal attacks

Just what I thought,no answer and begging for a moderator to step inxprayx
Once again I'll ask you to answer the question..........Patheticxthumbsdownx

[knucklehead]

This is amazingly awesome. Simply by including Lehigh in the examples, I nuked the fans world and here we are. Everyone will have their own criteria. In my little world I was talking long shot to make a deep run. Therefore my examples. And yes I would consider this years EWU team a sleeper. That is all. Return to bickering.

[Grizo406]

I say the Griz!

At least our offense anyway! They've been asleep quite a bit this season!!

[Seawolf97]

Dont overlook STonyBrook. We have been under the radar all season. Now with a passing game and our running game things are looking up. Two of our 3 losses were to FBS Teams UTEP and Buffalo and we took UTEP into OT. These weekend Coastal Carolina visits Long Island. Forecast is rain and snow at game time so run we will. Liberty will be a challenge but we did beat them two seasons ago in our house.

[MSUBobcat]

you do understand that the odds are not good to win the whole thing for EVERY SINGLE TEAM IN THE FCS, don't you?
xrolleyesx In the sense that only one team out of all of FCS can win, then yes, odds are not good for EVERY SINGLE TEAM IN THE FCS. Most people factor in the strength of the team when figuring out odds. Vegas is thanking its lucky stars you are not an oddsmaker.

There will likely be at least 5 (25% of the field) with good odds to win it b/c they will be seeded, giving them the lowest ranked(hypothetically weakest) teams and home field advantage for as long as they win until they play a higher seed or play in Frisco. There will also be probably 6-8 teams, maybe even 10, that a deep drive in the playoffs wouldn't surprise educated fans. The rest will likely be considered long-shots to bring home the trophy.


so MSU, yes it is an opinion

and why have you viciously attacked my opinion when I stated that EWU would not be a sleeper if they win out?

I went back and looked. I have never viciously attacked your opinion. I said I didn't care about your opinion that my opinion was wrong (that is one crazy circular argument xrotatehx). I have speculated that I make you hot and bothered for some reason. xlolx

[knucklehead]

I will be there for that LU vs SBU game. It looks to be a doosy and for all the marbles.

[JMUNJ08]

Let's see

Will the defending national champion have a 7 game winning streak going into the playoffs and be ranked in the top 25 at the time?

check

EWU will NOT be considered a sleeper if it wins out

period

The key is they would not be a favorite. They will be on the ROAD the entire way. Only 1 team (may have been JMU in 2004...) has won 4 road games in a row to take the NC...

There are alot of good teams this year with a few weeks left but if the playoffs started today, most would say these are the favorites:

Montana St. / GSU / NDSU / UNI / SHSU / Maine

All others, while good, may be 'sleepers' for the title or at least to get deep. I mean plenty of JMU/ASU/Montana fans (easily some that like to puff out their chests) aren't saying they are championship material this year...right now...

[MSUBobcat]

Ok, there you go

more reasonable

this scenario gives around 5 teams out of the 20 teams that would be considered "sleepers"

So that's acceptable to you??? I hope you are being facetious, cuz if not, that means we AGREE on something, and most likely hell is freezing over as I type this...xsmhx

[MTfan4life]

Considering the fact that the Patriot League hasn't sent a team past the round of 16 since Colgate in 03, any team coming from that conference will be a sleeper in the playoffs. Sure they look all tough in their conference, but put them in one of the Big 4 conferences and I doubt it would be the same result. Even if Lehigh was ranked #1 in the polls, I would still consider them a sleeper until they proved otherwise. The Big 4 powerhouses aren't sleepers, but everyone else might just as well be with Sam Houston being the exception.

[MTfan4life]

OK, there you go

unless you are from one of four conferences, you would be considered a "sleeper", no matter how good you are - even if they are ranked #1 in all the polls

and this would particularly apply to any teams from the Patriot League.

ok, that makes sense

Yes! I'm glad you understand! Last year Eastern was ranked #1 in one of the polls heading into the playoffs, but I saw them as a sleeper to win it all. Villanova had Szczur back, App State was doing really well, and the CAA looked extremely dominant. I was honestly surprised when they won the championship. They have to prove they are playoff strong before they mean anything. Montana State, I'm slightly looking at you too. However, with the Bobcats, I do not see them as a sleeper team as the top Big Sky team seems to have success in the playoffs often. If Lehigh advances beyond the quarterfinals, I will be extremely surprised, especially if they have to face a Big 4 team to get there.

[MSUBobcat]

Yes! I'm glad you understand! Last year Eastern was ranked #1 in one of the polls heading into the playoffs, but I saw them as a sleeper to win it all. Villanova had Szczur back, App State was doing really well, and the CAA looked extremely dominant. I was honestly surprised when they won the championship. They have to prove they are playoff strong before they mean anything. Montana State, I'm slightly looking at you too. However, with the Bobcats, I do not see them as a sleeper team as the top Big Sky team seems to have success in the playoffs often. If Lehigh advances beyond the quarterfinals, I will be extremely surprised, especially if they have to face a Big 4 team to get there.

I see where you are coming from and this criteria has been brought up in this thread. And yes, I agree that given our struggles in the playoff (see 2010), I also feel like we could qualify as a sleeper, depending on how we get in (AQ v. at-large). If we run through the conference undefeated w/ wins over 2 teams that make the playoffs and get a seed, we won't be sneaking up on anyone. If we lose to the Griz, and they get the AQ, I think we'll be hearing, "same ol' Bobcats, won't be seeing them in Frisco".

[MTfan4life]

Don't worry "The"Fan, I understood your joke. You don't understand that a sleeper is going to be defined differently based on separate interpretations. In my opinion it's the same thing to label Lehigh as anywhere near a favorite. Go ahead. Call me moronic. I'm not going to get defensive, have a mental breakdown, and post 2,000 straight times on a thread though. To win 4 straight games against elite competition, I only see a select few amount of teams as non-sleepers. Everyone else is a sleeper in my eye.

[MTfan4life]

You like hanging on to one specific thing someone says. You don't keep mentioning anything else I stated. There won't be a unanimous top ranked team outside of the big 4 with the possible exception of Sam Houston. That's just not going to happen anytime soon, so there's no use admitting to that. In a college basketball analogy, I would refer to the Patriot League, the OVC, the MEAC, the NEC, and the Big South all as mid-major conferences. In contrast, however, there aren't any Gonzaga, Memphis, Butler teams that shine out of the mid-major level in FCS football. These conferences simply haven't provided much, if any, teams advancing to the quarterfinals in recent FCS history. Therefore, any one team from any one of those conferences would be a sleeper. You're bound to be an underdog until you prove yourself otherwise. Since 2004, the Great West (a non auto bid league) has had more quarterfinal qualifiers (1) than the five conferences I listed combined.

[Engineer86]

IF scholarships as rumored finally come to the patriot league, there are several strong programs that will likely lift the league off of your mid major list. Even without scholly's the patriot league has sent Colgate to the finals and Lehigh held national champion, JMU, seven times from the 1 before they scored.

I am not disagreeing that currently a second round win is a huge accomplishment for the patriot league, but level the playing field and several of the programs will be competitive with CAA teams. Case in point, while in the Patriot League Towson was a perennial lower half team.

[kalm]

You like hanging on to one specific thing someone says. You don't keep mentioning anything else I stated. There won't be a unanimous top ranked team outside of the big 4 with the possible exception of Sam Houston. That's just not going to happen anytime soon, so there's no use admitting to that. In a college basketball analogy, I would refer to the Patriot League, the OVC, the MEAC, the NEC, and the Big South all as mid-major conferences. In contrast, however, there aren't any Gonzaga, Memphis, Butler teams that shine out of the mid-major level in FCS football. These conferences simply haven't provided much, if any, teams advancing to the quarterfinals in recent FCS history. Therefore, any one team from any one of those conferences would be a sleeper. You're bound to be an underdog until you prove yourself otherwise. Since 2004, the Great West (a non auto bid league) has had more quarterfinal qualifiers (1) than the five conferences I listed combined.

This. Most of the field are sleepers which would include any team like Lehigh from a non power conference and most power conference teams with an 8-3 or worse record. NDSU and nova would be good examples of this from last year. There can be extenuating circumstances like EWU this year, but the experience factor and 7 game win streak would be nullified by the loss of 4 All Americans and having to play on the road.

I hope I don't receive any personal attacks from the fan for posting my opinion.

[URMite]

The key is they would not be a favorite. They will be on the ROAD the entire way. Only 1 team (may have been JMU in 2004...) has won 4 road games in a row to take the NC...

There are alot of good teams this year with a few weeks left but if the playoffs started today, most would say these are the favorites:

Montana St. / GSU / NDSU / UNI / SHSU / Maine
All others, while good, may be 'sleepers' for the title or at least to get deep. I mean plenty of JMU/ASU/Montana fans (easily some that like to puff out their chests) aren't saying they are championship material this year...right now...

Who else is undefeated in games against FCS teams? I know Towson, and Alabama St I suppose...

UNI/NDSU loser won't be this week, Maine/Towson loser won't be next week...

Can there still be more than 5 playoff eligible teams that fit that criteria at season's end?

[knucklehead]

I actually was looking for teams that most folks would be surprised to see win 2 or 3 games or even make a run at the championship. I put my own team Liberty in as an examply because I know most folks say we are soft because of our conference and do not think we can win in the playoffs much less get there until we prove it. But I think we are playing really well right now and are starting to get more healthy and will win out and could win some playoff games.

I think this year (even more than others) there are some really good teams we know will do well in the playoffs but no real favorite. However I think we could see a champion from outside of those teams.

[profisme]

to label a #1 ranked team as a sleeper is just plain moronic!

Yes, that would be plain moronic, but I would say that chances are most people wouldn't vote a Patriot League team as number 1 until they show they are able to actually do well in the playoffs. The PL has had exactly 2 teams get to the championship game (Colgate in 2003 and Lehigh in 1979), but has never won. That would be considered a poor track record. So in this case, up until now, your hypothetical doesn't apply.

I think the term used here should be long-shot instead of sleeper because it is this term that TheFan is using to base his argument off of and it is simply muddling up the conversation. Yes, Lehigh would be a long-shot to win the championship as well as most other teams. Other teams that would be considered long-shots:

1.) Any team which gets in with the minimum 7 D-1 wins (required by the committee for an at-large)

2.) Any team which is ranked outside the top 10 in the nation in GPI

3.) Any team whose conference received only one bid to the playoffs (showing weakness in schedule of quality opponents)

4.) Any combination of the above.

Yes, I would consider EWU to be a long-shot right now because they have to win every game the rest of the way out this season and they have shown poorly against quality opponents this year. That doesn't mean they can't do it, it simply means they will be unlikely to do so, thus making them a long-shot.

Just my opinion on the matter.

[ysubigred]

What would really throw a big curve ball in all this mess is "IF" YSU, ISU both B and R win out. Could the MVFC get 5 bids for the playoff's?? WOW!! 5 teams @ 8-3 xdizzyxxshakingmadx

[MSUBobcat]

IF scholarships as rumored finally come to the patriot league, there are several strong programs that will likely lift the league off of your mid major list. Even without scholly's the patriot league has sent Colgate to the finals and Lehigh held national champion, JMU, seven times from the 1 before they scored.

I am not disagreeing that currently a second round win is a huge accomplishment for the patriot league, but level the playing field and several of the programs will be competitive with CAA teams. Case in point, while in the Patriot League Towson was a perennial lower half team.

Due to being non-scholly, the playing field ISN'T level between power conferences and the PL. This is why some people consider the AQ from the Patriot League as somewhat of a sleeper. They feel that performance against the tougher scholly leagues is what proves you belong, not beating up on other members of a non-scholly league. I'm not saying I think Lehigh is a sleeper. I'd put them in the group of 10 that wouldn't completely surprise people if they won it all. They aren't the favorites, but they aren't sleepers either.

FWIW, unless my quick look at Towson was incorrect, in 7 years in the PL they had 4 seasons of .500 or better overall record. In 7 season since joining the A-10/CAA they have had 2. This suggests that adding schollies does not immediately make you competitive against the so-called "power conferences". Obviously this year is different, but they were picked dead last in the CAA preseason poll, so this is definitely out of character for them.

[andy7171]

IF scholarships as rumored finally come to the patriot league, there are several strong programs that will likely lift the league off of your mid major list. Even without scholly's the patriot league has sent Colgate to the finals and Lehigh held national champion, JMU, seven times from the 1 before they scored.

I am not disagreeing that currently a second round win is a huge accomplishment for the patriot league, but level the playing field and several of the programs will be competitive with CAA teams. Case in point, while in the Patriot League Towson was a perennial lower half team.

I seem to remember us being middle of the pack rather than lower half. I could be wrong. Glad those years are behind us. It wasn't a good match, for Towson or the PL.

[MSUBobcat]

I think the term used here should be long-shot instead of sleeper because it is this term that TheFan is using to base his argument off of and it is simply muddling up the conversation. Yes, Lehigh would be a long-shot to win the championship as well as most other teams. Other teams that would be considered long-shots:

1.) Any team which gets in with the minimum 7 D-1 wins (required by the committee for an at-large)

2.) Any team which is ranked outside the top 10 in the nation in GPI

3.) Any team whose conference received only one bid to the playoffs (showing weakness in schedule of quality opponents)

4.) Any combination of the above.

Yes, I would consider EWU to be a long-shot right now because they have to win every game the rest of the way out this season and they have shown poorly against quality opponents this year. That doesn't mean they can't do it, it simply means they will be unlikely to do so, thus making them a long-shot.

Just my opinion on the matter.

I think these are very reasonable criteria for sleeper/long shot/dark horse/whatever-you-want-to-call-them. Now if only we could get everyone on board....... xcoolx

[knucklehead]

I agree profisme has it down. Now who fits that mold?

[profisme]

I agree profisme has it down. Now who fits that mold?

I suppose it depends on whether you wish to include teams not yet qualified for the playoffs, not in contention for their conference's autobid, from "non-major" FCS conferences, etc...

There are many teams which qualify as long-shots at the moment but who may not even make the playoffs, such as EWU, Sac. State, Weber State, or UM just from the Big Sky. (Yes, in this statement I admit to being an MSU homer, but if someone wants to keep me honest and thinks that ISU will beat MSU this weekend, PM me with your wager and we can find someone to hold it in escrow :) ) But in all seriousness, there are probably too many teams to name who would be currently considered long-shots if they happened to make it into the playoffs this year. That being said, if someone wants to make the list, I'd happily read it and my dumbass will probably comment.

[profisme]

For eff's sake, my reply wasn't supposed to be a thread-killer....

[knucklehead]

Dude, you must be a lot of fun at parties. Spot making it so complicated. I just wanted folks opinions of teams they think might be ssurprises to make a playoff run. SIMPLE!

[MSUBobcat]

how is this?

Rank/description
1-5 - Favorites
6-10 - Sleepers
11-14 - Twinees
15-20 - Long-shots
I think this is reasonable criteria also. See this is how civilized conversations go. Rather than say someone's opinion is wrong, give your criteria and go from there.xthumbsupx

BTW, based on your criteria, it does contradict your original post in this thread, as Lehigh is #10 in GPI and #7 in both AGS and Sports Network polls, making them "sleepers" at this time. Just sayin'...


hard to believe that a team that is ranked 6/7 at the moment and leads the FCS in total offense at 491 yards per game would be considered a "sleeper" at this point in time...

[MSUBobcat]

I agree profisme has it down. Now who fits that mold?

I went through the "Creating the Playoff Field 10/23" thread and here is the general concensus of teams that are in the hunt. I did leave out the teams that are unlikely to make it (i.e. Sac St. and Weber from BSC) because the list would be incredibly long and I don't know which teams are still mathematically eligible from all conferences. This obviously will change before the end of the year as teams enter/drop out of at-large contention or AQ's change. If you feel I omitted anyone, it wasn't done on purpose. It was just a quick look at teams that have been mentioned in playoff contention.

Auto Qualifiers
Big Sky - Montana State
Big South - Liberty
CAA - Towson/Maine/possibly UNH
MEAC - Norfolk St.
Missouri Valley - UNI/NDSU
NEC - Albany
Ohio Valley - Jacksonville State
Patriot - Lehigh
SoCon - GSU
Southland - SHSU

At-Large
Big Sky - UM, EWU
CAA - Towson/Maine/UNH (whichever 2 aren't the AQ), ODU, JMU
Missouri Valley - UNI/NDSU, ISUr, ISUb
SoCon - App St., Wofford, Furman, Chatty
Great West - Cal Poly could make it if they win out
Ohio Valley - Murray State - there was talk on the other thread about them winning out and possibly getting in
Southland - UCA - see Murray State, not saying either is gonna make it but they are at least worth including

The only teams to fit profisme's criteria are: GSU (#1 in GPI), #2 NDSU, #3 UNI, #4 SHSU (passed 3rd criteria by virtue of UCA being in contention for at-large), #5 Wofford, #6 App. St., #7 Maine, #8 Montana State and # 9 Towson. #10 in the GPI is Lehigh, which fails the 3rd criteria. So we have 11 long shots in a field of 20, with SHSU likely to be included at YE and most likely Maine or Towson will drop out of the GPI top 10 after the loss, giving us 13 long shots to bring home the hardware. Seems fairly resonable. I'll even sand bag a little and say I include my Bobcats as a long shot, due to another criteria that has been used in this thread, the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately scenario, where MSU has not had any deep runs in the last decade.

[profisme]

how is this?

Rank/description
1-5 - Favorites
6-10 - Sleepers
11-14 - Twinees
15-20 - Long-shots

Not a bad post. I could agree with that for the most part except I would exclude the "tweeners" (I am guessing that is what you meant by twinees). By my criteria for a long-shot earlier, I would guess that about half the field in the playoffs would fit in there. I suppose that is just me agreeing with myself, but we think it wasn't a bad idea ;)

[MSUBobcat]

again, what's up with you?

we had different opinions on who the sleepers are. You decided to viciously attack me when I did not agree with you - using personal attacks such as 6 year old girl and moist pussy...

the table that I posted was based on the recewntly agreed upon definition of "sleeper", which was previously grouped with "long shot", as pointed out by another poster

stop your nonsense

WTF are you talking about? I say think your criteria are reasonable and you tell me to stop my nonsense??? And if you think I viciously attacked you, you need thicker skin to post on a forum. I said you act like a 6th grade girl and having you follow me around commenting on any post I make seems like I give you a hard on or make your pussy moist. Don't cry about it, just don't act like a baby.

[profisme]

This is how I see this argument right now...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gb_qHP7VaZE

[MSUBobcat]

there you go again you stupid MF

I repeat, are you sure that you want to make these kind of comments to completely anonymous posters?

Shouldn't your parents and other family be worried about this?

regarding following you around, it is YOU that posted on the Lehigh/Wofford board even though you are a MSU fan. It is YOU that posted on the Sleeper thread AFTER I posted and you then proceeded to attack me. The fact that you claim that I am following you around makes you sound like some kind of demented fag, which is probably the result of having an uncle and aunt as parents.

You've said before that you aren't threatening anyone. If that's the case, why would my parents or other family be worried what I post???

As I explained before, I went on that thread to learn more about to highly ranked teams from the east that I knew little about. The thread had plenty of non-Wofford and non-Lehigh fans posting. To say I followed you there, when I had never seen any of your posts and therefore didn't know you existed is pretty egotistical. Same goes for this thread. Just b/c you post first doesn't mean you own the thread. Damn dude. I try to agree with you and you still argue. You have serious mental problems.

[MSUBobcat]

again, no one is threatening you or your parents or your family

It is YOU that stated, like a demented low life fag, that I have been following YOU.

Which boards did I follow you on?

not the Wofford/Lehigh thread
not the Sleepers thread
not the Big Sky Power rankings thread, for this was my first post:
http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?97999-Big-Sky-Power-Rankings-10-24&p=1706979&viewfull=1#post1706979

so, which board did I follow you on?

It is YOU that has made this accusation, you stupid MF, so now show the facts to support your claims...

Why bring up my family being worried? Anyway, threatening or not, I'm not worried.

You claim to not have followed me to the BSC thread. Yet its a weekly thread but I have NEVER seen you there before and it rarely, if ever, has non-BSC fans post there. In addition to that, you didn't stay on topic of ranking the conference, but rather just claim that, in your infinite knowledge of the conference, UM should be #1. Nope, didn't come to that thread to argue with me. Not at all.

Anyway, I can't recall you ever agreeing with anyone, so you obviously troll for people to argue with. I'm just not going to take the bait anymore. Like I said, I didn't know you before last week, but now I know your game, and its a tired, played out, immature one, so I'm done with you. I'm sure you'll continue to talk trash like the internet toughie you are, but like on the other thread, I'll be the bigger man and just ignore you. Go find someone else to take your bait, troll.

[MTfan4life]

Ok, so Mr. Get everyone off topic should just his own complaining thread. Back to the topic of sleepers for the playoffs, profisme broke it down very well. It's hard to be a favorite in a 20 team field when your conference only sends 1 qualifier. Unless if your team has just rick-rolled teams by an average of 50 points, there won't be too much favoritism placed on that team.

Thefan, I don't agree with placing labels purely based on rank though. App St. entered the playoffs in 2007 unseeded, but many still considered them the favorite. The rankings usually base largely on record. Just because a team won 11 games on the season and are ranked #5, it doesn't mean they are favored better than the third place team from the balanced conference.

[JMUNJ08]

MSU, again, show the proof that I have been following you

you can't - because I haven't

It is YOU that began with the massive amount of disgusting personal attacks when I posted this simple post regarding why a team should not be ranked #1 in the Big Sky:

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?97999-Big-Sky-Power-Rankings-10-24&p=1706979&viewfull=1#post1706979

and, of course, why should your parents and family be worried about YOU viciously attacking an anonymous poster?...it is not as if your identity and location and that of your family has already been determined by your posting history and private PM's, has it?

regading this comment by you:

"Anyway, I can't recall you ever agreeing with anyone, so you obviously troll for people to argue with. "

again, you are showing your true moronic stupidity, which probably results from being a fag child of two cousins, since I have agreed with many many posted messages in the last year that I have been posting.

so, stop your nonsense and at least try to attempt to stop attacking my posted messages, something which your fag qualities aren't allowing you to do so far..

Sorry, tired of the derogatory language....lets change this up and be adults or the mods can take you out the door...don't mind you disagreeing and arguing with everyone but this takes it out of what is really necessary...

[kalm]

Fan, You should probably go back and read your own posts.xeyebrowx

[MTfan4life]

Sorry, tired of the derogatory language....lets change this up and be adults or the mods can take you out the door...don't mind you disagreeing and arguing with everyone but this takes it out of what is really necessary...

Well said Sir, well said.

[veinup]

montana. (assuming they even make the playoffs).

[Twentysix]

ISUr.

[olejack]

whichever team survives the Furman/UTC matchup.

I hope you're right but that would mean that Chatty would still have to get by Wofford after Furman and Furman would need to beat App St. after Chatty.

[darell1976]

Cal Poly. If they run the table they would finish 8-3 (GWFC champions) with wins over UND, USD, EWU...2 ranked teams and the current National Champions.

[Tubby Raymond]

Maine

[BEAR]

If UCA wins out, their only FCS loss would be to Sam Houston..when UCA was depleted from an overtime loss to Louisiana Tech, would they get in? Possibly? 7 DI wins.. xlolx

[MTfan4life]

They would need a fair amount of help, but yes, they could possibly get in.

[ngineer]

Due to being non-scholly, the playing field ISN'T level between power conferences and the PL. This is why some people consider the AQ from the Patriot League as somewhat of a sleeper. They feel that performance against the tougher scholly leagues is what proves you belong, not beating up on other members of a non-scholly league. I'm not saying I think Lehigh is a sleeper. I'd put them in the group of 10 that wouldn't completely surprise people if they won it all. They aren't the favorites, but they aren't sleepers either.

FWIW, unless my quick look at Towson was incorrect, in 7 years in the PL they had 4 seasons of .500 or better overall record. In 7 season since joining the A-10/CAA they have had 2. This suggests that adding schollies does not immediately make you competitive against the so-called "power conferences". Obviously this year is different, but they were picked dead last in the CAA preseason poll, so this is definitely out of character for them.

It's not just the scholarships but the ban on redshirting (with a few exceptions for medicals that get approved), that has an impact. An amazing improvement can occur in a young man over one year, especially in terms of size and strength. If Lehigh could have redshirted Will Rackley, he'd be starting left tackle this year instead of playing for the Jacksonville Jaguars.

As far as being a 'sleeper', I interpret the thread as asking what teams are most likely to make some unexpected noise. Based on track record of the PL, I would expect most to view Lehigh as a sleeper. We're expected to make the playoffs, but anything beyond a second round win will surprise most people. I think we have the talent to go beat anyone in field, on 'any given saturday', but the playoffs are a long run, at a tough time of year with final exams, and going up against teams, that on paper, have more athleticism, overall, than we do. I still have all the playoff dates marked on my calendar into early January. That's the way you have to think, or you shouldn't play the game.

[ngineer]

MSU, again, show the proof that I have been following you

you can't - because I haven't

It is YOU that began with the massive amount of disgusting personal attacks when I posted this simple post regarding why a team should not be ranked #1 in the Big Sky:

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?97999-Big-Sky-Power-Rankings-10-24&p=1706979&viewfull=1#post1706979

and, of course, why should your parents and family be worried about YOU viciously attacking an anonymous poster?...it is not as if your identity and location and that of your family has already been determined by your posting history and private PM's, has it?

regading this comment by you:

"Anyway, I can't recall you ever agreeing with anyone, so you obviously troll for people to argue with. "

again, you are showing your true moronic stupidity, which probably results from being a fag child of two cousins, since I have agreed with many many posted messages in the last year that I have been posting.

so, stop your nonsense and at least try to attempt to stop attacking my posted messages, something which your fag qualities aren't allowing you to do so far..

I think you need to rethink your reason for being here. This kind of language is getting out of hand. I would expect some civil discussion based upon the shield of your avatar.

[Squealofthepig]

I think you need to rethink your reason for being here. This kind of language is getting out of hand. I would expect some civil discussion based upon the shield of your avatar.

He's a lame troll who, judging by his posts, struggled (and failed) to pass high school English. Never respond to anyone who is incapable of understanding something so basic as the shift key.

(Seriously, this guy makes Lakes look like a genius, which borders on the miraculous).

[Engineer86]

Due to being non-scholly, the playing field ISN'T level between power conferences and the PL. This is why some people consider the AQ from the Patriot League as somewhat of a sleeper. They feel that performance against the tougher scholly leagues is what proves you belong, not beating up on other members of a non-scholly league. I'm not saying I think Lehigh is a sleeper. I'd put them in the group of 10 that wouldn't completely surprise people if they won it all. They aren't the favorites, but they aren't sleepers either.

FWIW, unless my quick look at Towson was incorrect, in 7 years in the PL they had 4 seasons of .500 or better overall record. In 7 season since joining the A-10/CAA they have had 2. This suggests that adding schollies does not immediately make you competitive against the so-called "power conferences". Obviously this year is different, but they were picked dead last in the CAA preseason poll, so this is definitely out of character for them.

You are correct with TSU. I must admit being myopic on this one. Since this was the time frame of a very strong Lehigh team, TSU beat them once while in the league and I recall it being a huge disappointment to loose to Towson. Good luck to them, I wish it was LU that made the same move.

[MSUBobcat]

As far as being a 'sleeper', I interpret the thread as asking what teams are most likely to make some unexpected noise. Based on track record of the PL, I would expect most to view Lehigh as a sleeper. We're expected to make the playoffs, but anything beyond a second round win will surprise most people. I think we have the talent to go beat anyone in field, on 'any given saturday', but the playoffs are a long run, at a tough time of year with final exams, and going up against teams, that on paper, have more athleticism, overall, than we do. I still have all the playoff dates marked on my calendar into early January. That's the way you have to think, or you shouldn't play the game.

I think your interpretation is fairly accurate for most people's perspective. I would probably consider Lehigh a borderline sleeper. Admittedly, I don't get to see any East Coast FCS football, so I have to go on W-L, SoS, team/individual statistics, rankings, etc. Based on some of these factors, Lehigh wouldn't be considered a sleeper, IMO. However, as you mention, the track record of the PL may cause most to view them as a sleeper. As I have said before, based on this, I would also consider MSU as somewhat of a sleeper, as our playoff success over the last decade has left a lot to be desired. xsmhx That said, I think we have one of the best offenses I've seen from them, so a deep run, especially if we get homefield for much of the playoffs, would not completely surprise me either.