Playoff Overview - 4 Weeks To Go - In Depth Analysis

[Go Apps]

Here are a few clarifications for the playoff field of 20: The Ivy League does not participate in the playoffs- The SWAC will send its division champions to the SWAC title game. Assume a team must also reach 7 D1 wins to be eligible.for an at large. ALSO there are teams with still a chance of winning their Autobid but I have not listed due to upcoming schedule, will add as necessary.

FCS teams that can still entertain realistic playoff hopes. Schools are ranked by their chances of making the playoffs.. Current overall and conference records are in parentheses, and each team’s remaining schedule is listed with a brief synopsis of its chances. The adds of AQ means they got the Autobid or IN means I believe they have already made the field,regardless of how they finish. The rank below is based on being in the playoffs not where I believe they will be seated.

1. Sam Houston State (7-0, 4-0 Southland)
The Games: Lamar, at SELouis, N’wstern State, at Texas State

Outlook: Have the easiest schedule remaining – an undefeated season and a top seed

2. Lehigh (6-1, 1-0 Patriot)
The Games: at Colgate, Holy Cross, Georgetown, Lafayette

Outlook: On a roll and should get the autobid –doubtful on a seed

3. Northern Iowa (6-1, 5-0 MVC)
The Games: NDSU, at Young State, S. Utah, at Ill State

Outlook: In control but a monster game this weekend

4. Montana State (7-1, 5-2 Big Sky)
The Games: Idaho State, at Weber State, Montana

Outlook: Only Montana is a road block to a top seed

5. Ga Southern (7-0, 5-0 Southern)
The Games: at ASU, Citadel, at Wofford, at Alabama

Outlook: Control their own destiny and own the top seed but tough schedule ahead

6. North Dakota State (7-0, 4-0 MVC)
The Games: N. Iowa, at Indiana State, Young State, at W. Illinois

Outlook: In control of their destiny – showdown on Sat.

7. Jacksonville State (5-2, 4-0 OVC)
The Games: Tenn Tech, EKU, at SEMOSt, at Tenn State

Outlook: Needs to keep winning and possible second round host

8. Liberty (5-3, 3-0 Big South)
The Games: Presby, VMI, at Stony Brook

Outlook: In the drivers seat for the AQ…

9. Albany (5-2, 4-0 NEC)
The Games: at Wagner, Bryant, at Monmouth, Sacred Heart

Outlook: Just keep winning and AQ is all yours

10. Montana (6-2, 5-1 Big Sky)
The Games: Weber State, Western Oregon, at Montana State

Outlook: Predict the grizzles lose once more but they are in

11. Maine (6-1, 4-0 CAA)
The Games: at Villanova, Towson, UMass, at N. Hampshire

Outlook: The CAA is turned upside, hard to say who will come out on top

12. James Madison (5-2, 3-1 CAA)
The Games: at ODU, at N. Hampshire, R. Island, at UMASS

Outlook: Tough road ahead – just part of the CAA logjam

13. Towson (6-1, 4-0 CAA)
The Games: Delaware, at Maine, N. Hampshire, at R. Island

Outlook: Here again need to play these games…

14. Norfolk State (6-2. 4-1 MEAC)
The Games: NC A&T, at Savannah State, at Morgan State

Outlook: Needs to keep winning to secure the Autobid

15. New Hampshire (5-2, 3-1 CAA)
The Games: R. Island, JMU, at Towson, Maine

Outlook: Tough road ahead – just part of the CAA logjam

16. Old Dominion (6-2, 3-2 CAA)
The Games: JMU, Richmond, at W&M

Outlook: Needs just two more wins – could lose all 3?

17. Wofford (5-2, 3-1 Southern)
The Games: Elon, at WCU, GSU, at UTC

Outlook: Just when you think the Terriers have it locked down – dare we say “Woffed again”?

18. E. Washington (4-4, 4-2 Big Sky)
The Games: Portland State, at Cal Poly, at Idaho State

Outlook: Don’t look now but I think they win out!

19. Appalachian State (5-2, 3-1 Southern)
The Games: GSU, at Furman, WCU, at Elon

Outlook: Talk about bouncing back, ASU has found an offense…can they find 3 more wins?

20. Indiana State (5-3, 3-2 MVC)
The Games: NDSU, at MO State, S. Illinois

Outlook: Very much in the hunt and a strong schedule with 4 losses they will be hard to leave out!

21. NC A&T (4-3. 3-1 MEAC)
The Games: at Norfolk State, at Fla A&M, at SC State, NC Central

Outlook: Win out and I think they get the autobid a loss this weekend will end all discussion

22. Sacremento State (3-4, 2-3 Big Sky)
The Games: N. Arizona, at Portland State, Idaho State, UC Davis

Outlook: They could easily win out and get a bid.

23. Samford (4-3, 2-3 Southern)
The Games: WCU, UTC, at Citadel, at Auburn

Outlook: To assume the bulldogs will win the next three is not a stretch but that would only give them 6 division wins, can they get in?

24. Chattanooga (4-4, 2-3 Southern)
The Games: Furman, at Samford, Wofford

Outlook: Must win out – the playoffs have begun for the Mocs..

25. Central Arkansas (5-3, 4-1 Southland)
The Games: SE Lous, at N’wstern State, Texas State

Outlook: Must win out to stay in the hunt

26. Furman (4-3, 3-2 Southern)
The Games: at UTC, ASU, Elon, at Florida

Outlook: They need 3 more wins – if they do I say they are in – the UTC is an elimination game

27. Youngstown State (4-3, 2-2 MVC)
The Games: W. Ill, at N. Iowa, at NDSU, MO State

Outlook: Still alive but I don’t see them making it

28. Tennessee Tech (4-2, 3-1 OVC)
The Games: at Jacksonville State, Murray State, at EKU, Austin Peay

Outlook: Must win out, but what a tough schedule

29. Cal Poly (4-3, 2-0 Great West)
The Games: S. Dakota, at UC Davis, E. Washington, at S. Alabama

Outlook: Now they must win the next to stay in the discussion.

There are other teams still alive for now I will focus on these above will add/delete week to week

Below are my current projections for the I-AA playoff field.

Automatic Bids:
Patriot: Lehigh CAA: Maine
Big Sky: Montana State Southland: Sam Houston State
Southern: GSU MVC: N.Iowa
MEAC: Norfolk State OVC: Jacksonville State:
Big South: Liberty NEC: Albany

At-large: Wofford, ASU, Samford, N. Hamp, Montana, JMU, E.Wash, Towson, ODU, NDakSt

Seeds: GSU, Montana State, Maine, Sam Houston State, NDSU
Last In: E. Washington, UTC
Last Out: Murray State, Ill State, Furman, Sacramento State


Bracket I:
Samford @ Jacksonville State winner at No. 1 GSU
Wofford @ Sam Houston State

Norfolk State @ Liberty winner at No. 4 Maine
Montana @ No. 5 NDSU

Bracket II:
Albany @ N. Hampshire winner at No. 3 Montana State
JMU @ ASU

Towson @ E. Washington winner at No. 2 N. Iowa
ODU @ Lehigh

[THE HERD]

How does N. Iowa win the MVFC and NDSU get an at large, but NDSU gets a seed and Panthers don't? Maybe you just forgot to type N. Iowa in the seeds.

[youwouldno]

Samford played a non D-I opponent. They can only get to 7 D-I wins by winning out including Auburn, the probability of which is certainly not real good.

[Go Apps]

How does N. Iowa win the MVFC and NDSU get an at large, but NDSU gets a seed and Panthers don't? Maybe you just forgot to type N. Iowa in the seeds.

I predict that NDSU only losses to UNI and gets the 5th seed while UNI grabs the #2 seed

[Go Apps]

Samford played a non D-I opponent. They can only get to 7 D-I wins by winning out including Auburn, the probability of which is certainly not real good.

You are correct I will fix:)

[Reign of Terrier]

meh...I don't think ranking teams based on chances of making the playoffs is a good idea. Wofford has a 75% chance of making the playoffs IMO and I don't think there are 16 teams with a better chance of getting in

[jmufan999]

Liberty vs. Maine in the 2nd round would have the potential of being a great matchup. Effective spread passing attack vs. a very talented secondary.

[Go Apps]

meh...I don't think ranking teams based on chances of making the playoffs is a good idea. Wofford has a 75% chance of making the playoffs IMO and I don't think there are 16 teams with a better chance of getting in

Have done it every year - the teams ahead of them will sort themselves out many of which seem to be in line for the Autobid - I change the rankings every week - I agree Wofford is most likely in - but based on schedules I have them further down the list as they have some tough games upcoming as does ASU and GSU - a loss for GSU this weekend will drop them and wins by ASU and Wofford win send them higher - Wofford has control of it's own destiny if they can win out they get the AB and most likely a top seed, a loss to anyone will derail that - hard to say but you guys need to pull for ASU this weekend...

[jmufan999]

Have done it every year - the teams ahead of them will sort themselves out many of which seem to be in line for the Autobid - I change the rankings every week - I agree Wofford is most likely in - but based on schedules I have them further down the list as they have some tough games upcoming as does ASU and GSU - a loss for GSU this weekend will drop them and wins by ASU and Wofford win send them higher - Wofford has control of it's own destiny if they can win out they get the AB and most likely a top seed, a loss to anyone will derail that - hard to say but you guys need to pull for ASU this weekend...

I guess the question is this (and not that I have an answer): Who are the AQ teams that have the biggest gap in talent between 1st and 2nd place? Whoever those teams are, those should be the most likely. Although, I guess that doesn't take schedule into account.

I don't know. Anyway, this is cool, keep up the good work.

[Go Apps]

I guess the question is this (and not that I have an answer): Who are the AQ teams that have the biggest gap in talent between 1st and 2nd place? Whoever those teams are, those should be the most likely. Although, I guess that doesn't take schedule into account.

I don't know. Anyway, this is cool, keep up the good work.

Don't know for many and not really a part of my thought process - take Albany for instance - it appears they will get the AB, I believe they will be the weakest team in the field but listed high just on probability alone - not an exact - after next week the list usually gets longer as I start to add in potential AQ qualifiers that will not reach 7 wins... more to come...

[van]

Don't know for many and not really a part of my thought process - take Albany for instance - it appears they will get the AB, I believe they will be the weakest team in the field but listed high just on probability alone - not an exact - after next week the list usually gets longer as I start to add in potential AQ qualifiers that will not reach 7 wins... more to come...

Weaker than the MEAC champ? Not sure about that one.

[WileECoyote06]

Weaker than the MEAC champ? Not sure about that one.

MEAC is 1 - 0 vs NEC and ranked higher in the Sagarin. Whether it's true on the field or not, who knows? But based on numbers, the MEAC champ should be seeded higher.

[youwouldno]

To be fair, Albany has a higher 'predictor' (true rating) than anyone in the MEAC; on a neutral field they would be favored by about 2 1/4 points over Norfolk St. The MEAC is rated significantly higher as a conference though.

[ngineer]

I hoping Lehigh can run the table and get a first round bye, followed by a home game. Attendance the Saturday after Thanksgiving with the students gone and many exhausted from all the great high school games usually results in lower numbers. First weekend in December with students back and everyone rested should help. It was apparent last year, that by the fourth quarter in the second round, Delaware was fresher and, then, really took control. Depth is also a factor, but at that point in the season, that extra week of rest has to help.

[Go Apps]

If Lehigh can win out they should get a bye all will depend on other outcomes

[van]

If Lehigh can win out they should get a bye all will depend on other outcomes

If Lehigh wins out they will surely be rated as a top 12 team. If they don't get a bye there will need to be an investigation of the committee. There is some possibility that Lehigh could get a seed if they win out, although the strength of schedule would work against that.

[katstrapper]

On paper it should appear that Sam Houston has the easiest remaining schedule, but there are some potential trap games upcoming that could cause some problems. As a fan of the Southland Conference, any team can beat any other team at any time. SHSU has two games on the road and two games at home remaining......

Lamar (home).. Storyline here is that Lamar's OC Todd Whitten is the former HC at Sam Houston before Coach Fritz arrived. Whitten will have some extra motivation to stick it to the Kats in Bowers Stadium. Lets just say that Whitten and the Kats AD wont be having dinner together and trading feel good stories.

SE Louisiana (road)... Lions beat a good Tx State team last week after an off week and they will have a score to settle after a 57-7 beat down in Huntsville last year. Coach Lucas will have his kids fired up for this one if Kats go there 8-0. Lions are a better team than they are showing.

Northwestern State (La) (Home)... Dont look now, but the Demons have won 3 in a row and are in the mix for the conference title. Demons have always been a tough game for the Kats. This game has been picked up by Southland Conference TV because this could be the game for the SLC title.

Texas State.. (road). Bobcats will be looking to make a statement as they leave the SLC and head to the WAC, especially if Kats roll into San Marcos 10-0. This game will be a dogfight as both teams are run heavy teams.

I think the Kats can get this done and run the table, as long as they take the remaining games one game at a time. So far, Coach Fritz has been able to keep these kids focused and humble at the same time. But, these four remaining games are not going to be a pushover by any means.

[TheRevSFA]

NW State has come on quite strong recently..not as easy of a game as people expect

..but then again, I think Sam is poised to win the NC.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

If Lehigh wins out they will surely be rated as a top 12 team. If they don't get a bye there will need to be an investigation of the committee. There is some possibility that Lehigh could get a seed if they win out, although the strength of schedule would work against that.

What if Stony Brook throttles Liberty and UNH loses two, three or four of their remaining games? xpeacex Like with most things related to the playoffs in late October, there are no guarantees at this time.

[Engineer86]

What if Stony Brook throttles Liberty and UNH loses two, three or four of their remaining games? xpeacex Like with most things related to the playoffs in late October, there are no guarantees at this time.

Correct there are never any guarantees, and all of these therories are based on some level of likelihood. That said, don't you think Maine and Towsen losing once each has a much higher probability than what you propose?

I am sure I will get a lot of heat for this one, but, I am not sold on either yet. Not sure why since there are plenty of arguments in support, but I think it relates to "what have you done with the pressure on". And those days are coming in the next few weeks.

[danefan]

To be fair, Albany has a higher 'predictor' (true rating) than anyone in the MEAC; on a neutral field they would be favored by about 2 1/4 points over Norfolk St. The MEAC is rated significantly higher as a conference though.

Also, its not like Albany has been getting through the NEC is close games. The margin of victory in the NEC is 22 pts per game.

But in theory, the winner of the NEC will be in most years a team playing in the opening round on the road. No question about it.

[crusader11]

hier probability



Guess this is why Lehigh is renowned for their engineering program and not humanities.

[Engineer86]

Guess this is why Lehigh is renowned for their engineering program and not humanities.

Probably just me, per my comment on GPA's

[Seawolf97]

What if Stony Brook throttles Liberty and UNH loses two, three or four of their remaining games? xpeacex Like with most things related to the playoffs in late October, there are no guarantees at this time.

Thats right. I wouldn't count out StonyBrook just yet. They have been playing pretty and two of our 3 losses were to FBS programs one of which we took into OT.

[Big Cats]

I am a UNI homer, but at this point even I would have to give the MVFC autobid to NDSU. The "monster game" you speak of is in Fargo this week. That alone gives them the inside track to a conference title.