Playoff projection

[Go Apps]

AUTOMATIC BIDS
Big Sky: Montana State
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: Maine
MEAC: Norfolk State
Missouri Valley: NDSU
Northeast: Albany
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Lehigh
Southern: Georgia Southern
Southland: Sam Houston State

AT-LARGE BIDS
Big Sky: Montana, Eastern Washington
Colonial: New Hampshire, Old Dominion, James Madison
Missouri Valley: N. Iowa, Indiana State
Southern: Appalachian State, Wofford, UTC

STILL IN THE HUNT: Cal Poly, Furman, NCA&T, Georgetown, Sacremento State, Murray State, Illinois State, Richmond

FIRST ROUND
ODU at Liberty
Albany at New Hampshire
Indiana State at Eastern Washington
UTC at Norfolk State

SECOND ROUND
Indiana State at Eastern Washington winner at #1 North Dakota State
James Madison at Montana

ODU at Liberty winner at #4 Montana State
Jacksonville State at #5 Sam Houston State

Albany at New Hampshire winner at #3 Maine
Wofford at N. Iowa

UTC at Norfolk State winner at #2 Georgia Southern
Lehigh at Applachian State

[TheBisonator]

NDSU could just as easily be an autobid and #1 or an at-large and #5.

Towson's not in your field?? WHUUHH!

CAA could easily have 5 teams get in and have none of them get to the semis.

[Go Apps]

NDSU could just as easily be an autobid and #1 or an at-large and #5.

Towson's not in your field?? WHUUHH!

CAA could easily have 5 teams get in and have none of them get to the semis.

Just guessing at this point lots of football to go - but taking a stab at it

[Reign of Terrier]

I think if Wofford makes the playoffs you certainly can't put them in the first round. The first round is pretty much reserved for the 7-4 teams and the conference autobids that are weaker on paper (Patriot, Big South, NEC, MEAC, etc)

[crusader11]

Lehigh from the PL isn't weak on paper. Nor is Liberty or Stony Brook for that matter.

[Reign of Terrier]

Lehigh from the PL isn't weak on paper. Nor is Liberty or Stony Brook for that matter.

I would say so for Liberty and Stony Brook. Liberty can have 7 D1 wins, but of those 7, 5 of those wins are against teams that are on pace to have a losing record. There is no quality win. On top of that the Big South is extremely weak. That's not Socon elitism talking, that's legitimate fact.

[crusader11]

And your point? Just because Liberty is beating up on weak competition, doesn't make them weak as a team. Their quick-strike offense will be tough for any team to cope with.

You can also tack Albany on to the list of teams that may appear to be weak due to the conference in which they hail from, but they'll be a tough out.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

And your point? Just because Liberty is beating up on weak competition, doesn't make them weak as a team. Their quick-strike offense will be tough for any team to cope with.

You can also tack Albany on to the list of teams that may appear to be weak due to the conference in which they hail from, but they'll be a tough out.

Very true. Liberty is crushing everyone in the Big South right now. Their 3 losses are to NC State, JMU and Lehigh, the last two by 3 points each.

[UNI Pike]

OVC isn't weak on paper, just in in the playoffs

[Squealofthepig]

Lehigh from the PL isn't weak on paper. Nor is Liberty or Stony Brook for that matter.

I totally agree; I think this year it will be all about geographic proximity. PL, OVC and NEC aren't exactly the patsies they've been in the past, and I hope the selection committee accurately reflects that in their matchups.

[JMUNJ08]

CAA could easily have 5 teams get in and have none of them get to the semis.

Based on what? How strong the top 4/5 teams are? Otherwise, I believe the CAA will again be more, if not equally as tested as all those teams running around with 0, 1, or 2 losses...

Is there any team from the CAA that may be in the playoffs that you would be dying to play?

[GaSouthern]

Liberty > CCU > Furman > Wofford...

Liberty > Wofford????
;)

[youwouldno]

I totally agree; I think this year it will be all about geographic proximity. PL, OVC and NEC aren't exactly the patsies they've been in the past, and I hope the selection committee accurately reflects that in their matchups.

Every year people say stuff like this and then it doesn't pan out. There are huge variations in conference strength and that becomes even more obvious in the post-season. Albany is purely a product of their weak schedule. The OVC is no better than usual. Lehigh is legit, as is Liberty to a lesser extent, but that's in spite of their conferences.

[danefan]

Every year people say stuff like this and then it doesn't pan out. There are huge variations in conference strength and that becomes even more obvious in the post-season. Albany is purely a product of their weak schedule. The OVC is no better than usual. Lehigh is legit, as is Liberty to a lesser extent, but that's in spite of their conferences.


The schedule is undoubtedly the weakest we've had in years, but we are also an OT loss in the opener away from having only a loss to Top Ten Maine.

No stellar wins though.

There is an interesting point of reference though:

Albany - 63
CCSU -35

CCSU - 3
JMU - 13

Just sayin'

[andy7171]

ODU in, Towson out. LOL

Maybe I should start posting more here?

[UIWWildthing]

I'm with Andy on this. Towson's out in your opinion?

[Go Apps]

I'm with Andy on this. Towson's out in your opinion?

Hey guys it is all a guess at this point - I am sure things will change drastically after this weekend and the weeks to come - but please post your playoff field would like to see everyone else's

[youwouldno]

The schedule is undoubtedly the weakest we've had in years, but we are also an OT loss in the opener away from having only a loss to Top Ten Maine.

No stellar wins though.

There is an interesting point of reference though:

Albany - 63
CCSU -35

CCSU - 3
JMU - 13

Just sayin'

Not even any decent wins. Sagarin takes margin of victory/defeat into account and Albany doesn't fare very well with that either. There's not much Albany can really do about their conference schedule, but if you only play 1 good team then that game takes on added importance. And Colgate is just a bad loss, the fact it was in OT doesn't make any difference.

I have nothing against Albany and would like to see the NEC become more competitive. But at this point Albany is clearly a team that should be on the road the first week of the playoffs (and thereafter should they advance).

[Big Dawg]

How is SC State receiving the auto bid for the MEAC...they've already lost to FAMU and Norfolk State...

[superman7515]

AUTOMATIC BIDS
Big Sky: Montana State
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: Maine
MEAC: Norfolk State
Missouri Valley: North Dakota State
Northeast: Albany
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Lehigh
Southern: Georgia Southern
Southland: Sam Houston State

AT-LARGE BIDS
Big Sky: Montana (Eastern Washington loses 1 of their next 2 and ends with six D1 wins, Weber State loses to Montana, Portland State played two D2)
Colonial: James Madison, New Hampshire, Old Dominion, Towson
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa, Illinois State (Illinois St beats Southern & Western Illinois to finish with 7 wins, Indiana St beats Missouri State and Southern Illinois to finish with 7 wins, Illinois State's head to head win gives them the nod from the committee)
Southern: Appalachian State, Wofford, (Chattanooga drops one of their final three and doesn't make it to 7 wins, Furman doesn't make 7 because of App State & Florida, Samford doesn't make 7 because of D2 & Auburn, Elon doesn't make 7 because of D2)

That leaves one at-large that I figure you can pick out of a hat because there aren't a ton of options left. Cal Poly doesn't have a great schedule. A lot of the popular names didn't reach 7 D1 wins. Sacramento State has a pretty easy schedule, they'd have to sweep the last four games, but they're all winnable. The Gardner-Webb loss hurts Coastal Carolina's chances. If Georgetown can win 2 of their last 3 they'll have a win over Holy Cross or Lehigh and with 8 D1 wins and a ton of teams struggling to get 7, the committee might be hard pressed to keep them out. Maybe both Indiana St and Illinois St get at-large. I think #20 is a coin flip.

[danefan]

Not even any decent wins. Sagarin takes margin of victory/defeat into account and Albany doesn't fare very well with that either. There's not much Albany can really do about their conference schedule, but if you only play 1 good team then that game takes on added importance. And Colgate is just a bad loss, the fact it was in OT doesn't make any difference.

I have nothing against Albany and would like to see the NEC become more competitive. But at this point Albany is clearly a team that should be on the road the first week of the playoffs (and thereafter should they advance).

I don't disagree with any of the above, except the margin of victory (see Dane 96's comments below)

The NEC champion should be on the road in most years for every playoff game.

EDIT: I missed your point originally that Albany had a poor margin of victory. Corrected. I don't disagree with anything else though.

[joeybrownerhof]

AUTOMATIC BIDS
Big Sky: Montana State
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: Maine
MEAC: Norfolk State
Missouri Valley: North Dakota State
Northeast: Albany
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Lehigh
Southern: Georgia Southern
Southland: Sam Houston State

AT-LARGE BIDS
Big Sky: Montana (Eastern Washington loses 1 of their next 2 and ends with six D1 wins, Weber State loses to Montana, Portland State played two D2)
Colonial: James Madison, New Hampshire, Old Dominion, Towson
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa, Illinois State (Illinois St beats Southern & Western Illinois to finish with 7 wins, Indiana St beats Missouri State and Southern Illinois to finish with 7 wins, Illinois State's head to head win gives them the nod from the committee)
Southern: Appalachian State, Wofford, (Chattanooga drops one of their final three and doesn't make it to 7 wins, Furman doesn't make 7 because of App State & Florida, Samford doesn't make 7 because of D2 & Auburn, Elon doesn't make 7 because of D2)

That leaves one at-large that I figure you can pick out of a hat because there aren't a ton of options left. Cal Poly doesn't have a great schedule. A lot of the popular names didn't reach 7 D1 wins. Sacramento State has a pretty easy schedule, they'd have to sweep the last four games, but they're all winnable. The Gardner-Webb loss hurts Coastal Carolina's chances. If Georgetown can win 2 of their last 3 they'll have a win over Holy Cross or Lehigh and with 8 D1 wins and a ton of teams struggling to get 7, the committee might be hard pressed to keep them out. Maybe both Indiana St and Illinois St get at-large. I think #20 is a coin flip.

Looks pretty good but i disagree about Cal Poly schedule. They will have to probably win out but their schedule is far better than most of the teams listed above as at large bids.

[crusader11]

Can't believe Georgetown is actually in the playoff discussion. Scary thing is, they actually have a legitimate shot if they're able to beat Holy Cross in Worcester this weekend.

[Dane96]

Not even any decent wins. Sagarin takes margin of victory/defeat into account and Albany doesn't fare very well with that either. There's not much Albany can really do about their conference schedule, but if you only play 1 good team then that game takes on added importance. And Colgate is just a bad loss, the fact it was in OT doesn't make any difference.

I have nothing against Albany and would like to see the NEC become more competitive. But at this point Albany is clearly a team that should be on the road the first week of the playoffs (and thereafter should they advance).

Uhhh...what?

Albany's wins come at a +22.5 a game. Albany's losses (2), were a 3 point OT opener loss, and a 16 point loss to a Top 10 team.

I get the no quality wins, and I do agree that the Colgate loss was bad (wrote it elsewhere) but the margin of victory coupled with the type of losses do not fit into your boxed statement.

That said, no one said Albany would have a home game; have you read a thread about our "stadium"? A home game would be a preposterous idea at this point compared to other teams that would bid on the game. In fact, we probably wouldn't even put a bid in.

[youwouldno]

Uhhh...what?

Albany's wins come at a +22.5 a game. Albany's losses (2), were a 3 point OT opener loss, and a 16 point loss to a Top 10 team.

I get the no quality wins, and I do agree that the Colgate loss was bad (wrote it elsewhere) but the margin of victory coupled with the type of losses do not fit into your boxed statement.

That said, no one said Albany would have a home game; have you read a thread about our "stadium"? A home game would be a preposterous idea at this point compared to other teams that would bid on the game. In fact, we probably wouldn't even put a bid in.

I was responding generally to the suggestion that the PL/NEC/etc. should be treated equally to strong conferences in terms of playoff matchmaking. No one said anything about an Albany home game, but there is also the question of how far they will travel, who they will play, etc.

With respect to margin, it's not just the margin but who it came against. Albany's Sagarin predictor (based purely on scoring margin) is 52.11; not bad but that would correspond to 8th in the SoCon, 9th in the CAA, etc. On the positive side, it is better than anyone in the MEAC and narrowly behind 2nd place Stony Brook in the Big South.

[UNH Fanboi]

I was responding generally to the suggestion that the PL/NEC/etc. should be treated equally to strong conferences in terms of playoff matchmaking. No one said anything about an Albany home game, but there is also the question of how far they will travel, who they will play, etc.

You said that Albany would be on the road in the first round. That is probably true, but it has nothing to do with Albany's strength as a team, which was implicit in your post. Outside of the seeded teams, merit does not factor into who gets home field advantage.

[danefan]

Forget about Albany. Not even a relevant discussion anymore. They're just a patsy from the NEC. I mean shoot, they couldn't even beat Colgate.

Get the 2nd stringers ready for that opening round game.








God I love playing in a conference with an AQ.

[JMUNJ08]

Can't believe Georgetown is actually in the playoff discussion. Scary thing is, they actually have a legitimate shot if they're able to beat Holy Cross in Worcester this weekend.

They have their fate in their own hands...If they win out (unlikely) or win 2 of 3 (W Lehigh) and HC loses to Lehigh and 1 other, you are still looking at the Patriot League champion....

[kalm]

Looks pretty good but i disagree about Cal Poly schedule. They will have to probably win out but their schedule is far better than most of the teams listed above as at large bids.

This. Poly has two FBS, Montana, EWU, SUU, and decent UDak's. Their next 4 are very winnable. In fact, the EWU game will probably be for an at large.

[Reign of Terrier]

And your point? Just because Liberty is beating up on weak competition, doesn't make them weak as a team. Their quick-strike offense will be tough for any team to cope with.

You can also tack Albany on to the list of teams that may appear to be weak due to the conference in which they hail from, but they'll be a tough out.

But who of value has Liberty beaten? They may pass the eye test, but on paper they won't have any quality wins

[crusader11]

But who of value has Liberty beaten? They may pass the eye test, but on paper they won't have any quality wins

Kinda like Virginia Commonwealth?

[jcmanson]

Hoping Liberty wins out and gets a shot in the playoffs. Definitely a dangerous team - ask JMU & Lehigh. No marquee wins, but plenty of talent.

[JMUNJ08]

Hoping Liberty wins out and gets a shot in the playoffs. Definitely a dangerous team - ask JMU & Lehigh. No marquee wins, but plenty of talent.

Thankfully they don't do first round rematches!

[Go Apps]

Thankfully they don't do first round rematches!

Not sure where you got that they do not do first round rematches? The only cavet is that they will not schedule two from the same conference in round 1 - otherwise it comes down to travel and proximity.

[Reign of Terrier]

Kinda like Virginia Commonwealth?

I'm just saying they deserve a first round game more than most in the projected playoff pool. Afterall, that's what the purpose of setting up a bracket is all about. You reward the teams who do well during the regular season with an "on paper" easier road and those who didn't do as well with a more difficult road. I stand by what I said, on paper, the NEC, Patriot, MEAC, and Big South are probably among the weaker AQ conferences and a champion from those conferences without any quality OOC wins/a lot of OOC losses would be a strong candidate for a first round game. Lehigh is not among one of those teams if they win out (but I think they won't get a seed either). Liberty/Stony Brook/ and maybe Albany would definitely be in consideration. Also there are going to be 7-4 teams from other conferences in the bracket as well and they will more likely than not in the first round as well.

[jcmanson]

Not sure where you got that they do not do first round rematches? The only cavet is that they will not schedule two from the same conference in round 1 - otherwise it comes down to travel and proximity.

The committee tries to stay away from first round rematches of games played earlier in the season. So they will try to avoid a JMU/Liberty or Lehigh/Liberty rematch.

[crusader11]

I stand by what I said, on paper, the NEC, Patriot, MEAC, and Big South are probably among the weaker AQ conferences

I'd put the Patriot League ahead of the Southland and Ohio Valley this year.

[Reign of Terrier]

I'd put the Patriot League ahead of the Southland and Ohio Valley this year.

but, chances are that the Southland and OVC will both only get one team in this year. Sam Houston State will certainly not get a first round game, the OVC champ might, I'll give you that, but the Patriot champ will still probably get a first round game IMO.

[crusader11]

but, chances are that the Southland and OVC will both only get one team in this year. Sam Houston State will certainly not get a first round game, the OVC champ might, I'll give you that, but the Patriot champ will still probably get a first round game IMO.

That's most likely the case. If Lehigh wins out, however, they'd very much be in the discussion for a bye.

[Reign of Terrier]

That's most likely the case. If Lehigh wins out, however, they'd very much be in the discussion for a bye.

This year, yes, but not normally I don't think.

[bojeta]

Looks pretty good but i disagree about Cal Poly schedule. They will have to probably win out but their schedule is far better than most of the teams listed above as at large bids.

Thank you! Ya, I don't know how anyone can say Cal Poly doesn't have a good schedule! Geez! Not one, but TWO defending FBS Bowl champions, Montana, South Dakota State, Ya, we got stuck with a DII like just about everyone else, a strong Great West Conference, and then Eastern Washington and South Alabama to round it out. Good God! You people want blood in your eggs?

[bojeta]

AUTOMATIC BIDS
Big Sky: Montana State
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: Maine
MEAC: Norfolk State
Missouri Valley: North Dakota State
Northeast: Albany
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Lehigh
Southern: Georgia Southern
Southland: Sam Houston State

AT-LARGE BIDS
Big Sky: Montana (Eastern Washington loses 1 of their next 2 and ends with six D1 wins, Weber State loses to Montana, Portland State played two D2)
Colonial: James Madison, New Hampshire, Old Dominion, Towson
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa, Illinois State (Illinois St beats Southern & Western Illinois to finish with 7 wins, Indiana St beats Missouri State and Southern Illinois to finish with 7 wins, Illinois State's head to head win gives them the nod from the committee)
Southern: Appalachian State, Wofford, (Chattanooga drops one of their final three and doesn't make it to 7 wins, Furman doesn't make 7 because of App State & Florida, Samford doesn't make 7 because of D2 & Auburn, Elon doesn't make 7 because of D2)

That leaves one at-large that I figure you can pick out of a hat because there aren't a ton of options left. Cal Poly doesn't have a great schedule. A lot of the popular names didn't reach 7 D1 wins. Sacramento State has a pretty easy schedule, they'd have to sweep the last four games, but they're all winnable. The Gardner-Webb loss hurts Coastal Carolina's chances. If Georgetown can win 2 of their last 3 they'll have a win over Holy Cross or Lehigh and with 8 D1 wins and a ton of teams struggling to get 7, the committee might be hard pressed to keep them out. Maybe both Indiana St and Illinois St get at-large. I think #20 is a coin flip.

OK... I see what's going on here. You've realized that Delaware is in deep @#$% and unlikely to make the playoffs. Therefore, you feel you need to put out a story that most of the potential at large teams aren't worthy because their schedule wasn't "good enough" based on your expert opinion. Meanwhile, Delaware, that struggled to beat a good Old Dominion team that Cal Poly romped last season (yes, they are essentially the same team), should get the nod because their schedule is so "good". Either wholly ingnorant about the teams outside your time zone or intentionally misleading. Really? Cal Poly's schedule NOT GOOD??? PUH-LEEEEEEEEZZZZZ!!!! If Poly wins out, THEY ARE IN!!

[cpalum]

OK... I see what's going on here. You've realized that Delaware is in deep @#$% and unlikely to make the playoffs. Therefore, you feel you need to put out a story that most of the potential at large teams aren't worthy because their schedule wasn't "good enough" based on your expert opinion. Meanwhile, Delaware, that struggled to beat a good Old Dominion team that Cal Poly romped last season (yes, they are essentially the same team), should get the nod because their schedule is so "good". Either wholly ingnorant about the teams outside your time zone or intentionally misleading. Really? Cal Poly's schedule NOT GOOD??? PUH-LEEEEEEEEZZZZZ!!!! If Poly wins out, THEY ARE IN!!

Thank you Bojeta....Cal Poly plays a weak schedule.....?!?!?!? now I have heard it all

[superman7515]

OK... I see what's going on here. You've realized that Delaware is in deep @#$% and unlikely to make the playoffs. Therefore, you feel you need to put out a story that most of the potential at large teams aren't worthy because their schedule wasn't "good enough" based on your expert opinion. Meanwhile, Delaware, that struggled to beat a good Old Dominion team that Cal Poly romped last season (yes, they are essentially the same team), should get the nod because their schedule is so "good". Either wholly ingnorant about the teams outside your time zone or intentionally misleading. Really? Cal Poly's schedule NOT GOOD??? PUH-LEEEEEEEEZZZZZ!!!! If Poly wins out, THEY ARE IN!!

Where did I put Delaware getting into the playoffs? Where did I say Cal Poly has a weak schedule? If you weren't so busy douching yourself into cpalum's mouth, you'd see that I wrote they didn't have a great schedule. By that I mean playing 2 FBS teams and 1 D2 team (2 losses and 1 win that doesn't count) doesn't give Cal Poly any room to breathe in games against South Dakota, Eastern Washington, and South Alabama coming up. Maybe if you'd read a little next time and see what was actually written, you can ask questions about things you don't understand. F---tard.

[cpalum]

Where did I put Delaware getting into the playoffs? Where did I say Cal Poly has a weak schedule? If you weren't so busy douching yourself into cpalum's mouth, you'd see that I wrote they didn't have a great schedule. By that I mean playing 2 FBS teams and 1 D2 team (2 losses and 1 win that doesn't count) doesn't give Cal Poly any room to breathe in games against South Dakota, Eastern Washington, and South Alabama coming up. Maybe if you'd read a little next time and see what was actually written, you can ask questions about things you don't understand. F---tard.

I agree with this and appreciate your clarification but that is not what you actually wrote

What you actually wrote: "Cal Poly does not have a great schedule"

The context of your comment was why Cal Poly might/or might not receive an At Large bid....so in fact you were implying that a 7 D1 win Cal Poly team could be excluded because they do not have a great schedule.....

Your clarification makes perfect sense but it is hardly what you originally wrote......lighten up.

[bojeta]

Where did I put Delaware getting into the playoffs? Where did I say Cal Poly has a weak schedule? If you weren't so busy douching yourself into cpalum's mouth, you'd see that I wrote they didn't have a great schedule. By that I mean playing 2 FBS teams and 1 D2 team (2 losses and 1 win that doesn't count) doesn't give Cal Poly any room to breathe in games against South Dakota, Eastern Washington, and South Alabama coming up. Maybe if you'd read a little next time and see what was actually written, you can ask questions about things you don't understand. F---tard.

I'll take the blame on this for not verifying your meaning. Might be a little clearer next time however as it was pretty easy to misunderstand what your wrote. That aside, get a grip on your mouth. I'm not one of your clients.