Socon Playoff overview

[Go Apps]

Playoff Path (took out any wins vs non division 1 schools)

ASU - 5-2 - GSU, at Furman, WCU, at Elon (needs 3 wins and they are a lock)

GSU - 6-0 - at ASU, Citadel, at Wofford, at Alabama (needs 1 more win - I think 4 losses to end season may eliminate them though)

Woff - 4-2 - Elon, at WCU, GSU, at UTC (needs 3 more wins and they are a lock)

UTC - 4-4 - Furman, at Samford, Wofford (must win out possible but if they do they are in due to schedule)

Furman - 4-3 - at UTC, ASU, Elon, at Florida (needs 3 more wins and they are in)

Samford - 3-3 - WCU, UTC, at Citadel, at Auburn (needs 4 wins)

Elon 3-3 at Wofford, at Furman, ASU - (think they are out)

Citadel 3-4 - VMI, at GSU, Samford, at South Carolina - (must win out -done)

WCU - officially eliminated

Tale of the Tape

Wofford - finishes w/ 1 loss - IN
GSU - finishes w/ 1 to 3 losses - IN
ASU - finishes w/ 2 to 4 losses - IN

UTC -win out and they are in
Furman - win 3 more and they are in

NOW IF ASU HAS 4 LOSSES - I CANNOT SEE THE COMMITTEE LEAVING THAT MONEY ON THE TABLE EVEN IF THEY TAKE SAMFORD - THE SOCON WILL NEED LOSSES AROUND THE COUNTRY TO SNEAK IN A FOURTH TEAM BUT POSSIBLE

Projecting out - Samford, WCU, Citadel, Elon

[Reign of Terrier]

Elon and Western are officially eliminated. Citadel and Samford are as good as out. Wofford has a little bit harder road, but I don't think we won't make the playoffs. ASU and GSU are both official locks at this point IMO. Furman and Chattanooga need to win out..elimination game this weekend.

If Furman plays as fired up and focused the rest of the season I think they'll win out and make the playoffs. It wouldn't surprise me if they didn't simply because they have a tough road between Chattanooga and App State. Damn it I just want to see those purple barneys again this year.

Don't count Wofford out of the Socon title race yet. Socon picks this week

Citadel >VMI (big margin)
Wofford>Elon (Wofford has a lot to get off of their chest)
UTC>Furman (but I'll be rooting for those damn barneys)
GSU>App (I don't know who I want to lose in this one)
Samford>Western (Samford could make the playoffs next year possibly)

[apaladin]

Elon and Western are officially eliminated. Citadel and Samford are as good as out. Wofford has a little bit harder road, but I don't think we won't make the playoffs. ASU and GSU are both official locks at this point IMO. Furman and Chattanooga need to win out..elimination game this weekend.

If Furman plays as fired up and focused the rest of the season I think they'll win out and make the playoffs. It wouldn't surprise me if they didn't simply because they have a tough road between Chattanooga and App State. Damn it I just want to see those purple barneys again this year.

Don't count Wofford out of the Socon title race yet. Socon picks this week

Citadel >VMI (big margin)
Wofford>Elon (Wofford has a lot to get off of their chest)
UTC>Furman (but I'll be rooting for those damn barneys)
GSU>App (I don't know who I want to lose in this one)
Samford>Western (Samford could make the playoffs next year possibly)

I hope Furman wins out but it will be very tough the next 2 weeks. UTC will be very tough on the road and ASU at home the following week. I really think ASU had gone to higher level with their QB change. They are a different animal now. FU's playoff chances would be much brighter if they had not slipped against Samford. Eventually I think that game will come back to haunt the Paladins. I am going way out on a limb here and pick ASU to win the conference due to their rejuvenated O. Will the cold weather be a factor in Boone on Saturday?

[Reign of Terrier]

Scheduling and screw ups are going to screw the Socon this year. I'd be surprised if wofford didn't make the playoffs but it's a possibility, since we played UVA-wise. Samford would possibility make the playoffs if they didn't play Stillman. Chattanooga lost at least one or 2 games that they shouldn't have. Furman shouldn't have lost to Coastal Carolina. Parity is a killer this year, otherwise we'd have 4 or maybe 5 teams in....but I doubt we'll get more than 3

[Squealofthepig]

Scheduling and screw ups are going to screw the Socon this year. I'd be surprised if wofford didn't make the playoffs but it's a possibility, since we played UVA-wise. Samford would possibility make the playoffs if they didn't play Stillman. Chattanooga lost at least one or 2 games that they shouldn't have. Furman shouldn't have lost to Coastal Carolina. Parity is a killer this year, otherwise we'd have 4 or maybe 5 teams in....but I doubt we'll get more than 3

OK, I'll bite... why SHOULD the SoCon get more than three? I like the SoCon this year, and have consistently voted GSU, App, Wofford and UTC and Furman in my ballots. But comparing them to the MVFC and CAA, I don't see a clear separation (from a pure playoffs number perspective), either from the eye test or from GPI or other computer measures. And I will say that, barring some substantial collapses, I don't see the BSC getting more than two in, so this isn't about jealousy or greed or anything.

[gasoutherneagle]

Playoff Path (took out any wins vs non division 1 schools)

ASU - 5-2 - GSU, at Furman, WCU, at Elon (needs 3 wins and they are a lock)

GSU - 6-0 - at ASU, Citadel, at Wofford, at Alabama (needs 1 more win - I think 4 losses to end season may eliminate them though)

Woff - 4-2 - Elon, at WCU, GSU, at UTC (needs 3 more wins and they are a lock)

UTC - 4-4 - Furman, at Samford, Wofford (must win out possible but if they do they are in due to schedule)

Furman - 4-3 - at UTC, ASU, Elon, at Florida (needs 3 more wins and they are in)

Samford - 3-3 - WCU, UTC, at Citadel, at Auburn (needs 4 wins)

Elon 3-3 at Wofford, at Furman, ASU - (think they are out)

Citadel 3-4 - VMI, at GSU, Samford, at South Carolina - (must win out -done)

WCU - officially eliminated

Tale of the Tape

Wofford - finishes w/ 1 loss - IN
GSU - finishes w/ 1 to 3 losses - IN
ASU - finishes w/ 2 to 4 losses - IN

UTC -win out and they are in
Furman - win 3 more and they are in

NOW IF ASU HAS 4 LOSSES - I CANNOT SEE THE COMMITTEE LEAVING THAT MONEY ON THE TABLE EVEN IF THEY TAKE SAMFORD - THE SOCON WILL NEED LOSSES AROUND THE COUNTRY TO SNEAK IN A FOURTH TEAM BUT POSSIBLE

Projecting out - Samford, WCU, Citadel, Elon

Southern is 7-0
Wofford is 5-2
Sammy is 4-3
Elon is 4-3

[chattanoogamocs]

Southern is 7-0
Wofford is 5-2
Sammy is 4-3
Elon is 4-3

Read the first line...

Playoff Path (took out any wins vs non division 1 schools)

[GaSouthern]

It will be totally possible for GSU to choke and lose out but I feel pretty good at home against citadel next weekend. If we can beat app at The Rock then I could see us winning the next three games though.

Personally i'd give up the next three games if we could beat Alabama! :D

Since I know what our chances are when playing them i'll take a win over our biggest rival this weekend :)

[Go Apps]

Southern is 7-0
Wofford is 5-2
Sammy is 4-3
Elon is 4-3

You are right but look at my first line - did not include Division 2 wins - since the committee does not count them neither did I

[youwouldno]

OK, I'll bite... why SHOULD the SoCon get more than three? I like the SoCon this year, and have consistently voted GSU, App, Wofford and UTC and Furman in my ballots. But comparing them to the MVFC and CAA, I don't see a clear separation (from a pure playoffs number perspective), either from the eye test or from GPI or other computer measures. And I will say that, barring some substantial collapses, I don't see the BSC getting more than two in, so this isn't about jealousy or greed or anything.

According to Sagarin at least, there is a clear separation. The SoCon is miles ahead of the CAA and MVFC, so much so that the SoCon is closer to C-USA than to them. It's one of the largest gaps I can recall seeing, though it could still change somewhat during the regular and post-season of course.

Now, your own opinion can vary from that, but also look at how it would work in practice. Realistically, only 2 teams other than GSU, Wofford, and App St have much of a shot- Furman and UTC. Both need to win out against FCS competition and they play each other next week. Even if Furman wins, App St follows, and for UTC there is still Wofford. But at 7-4 (7-3 FCS) both seem obviously worthy to me.

Furman would have high quality wins over Wofford and App St, and a very tough one @ UTC. Alternatively, UTC would have wins over Jax St, Wofford, and @ a tough Samford team. So it's not really a question of how many the SoCon deserves per se, but rather the fact a 4th SoCon team could put together a strong resume. The odds of it happening are not great, but if so FU or UTC would belong without a doubt.

[GaSouthern]

I def think that the SoCon deserves 4 teams this year personally if we finish with 4 seven win teams.

[PaladinFan]

According to Sagarin at least, there is a clear separation. The SoCon is miles ahead of the CAA and MVFC, so much so that the SoCon is closer to C-USA than to them. It's one of the largest gaps I can recall seeing, though it could still change somewhat during the regular and post-season of course.

Now, your own opinion can vary from that, but also look at how it would work in practice. Realistically, only 2 teams other than GSU, Wofford, and App St have much of a shot- Furman and UTC. Both need to win out against FCS competition and they play each other next week. Even if Furman wins, App St follows, and for UTC there is still Wofford. But at 7-4 (7-3 FCS) both seem obviously worthy to me.

Furman would have high quality wins over Wofford and App St, and a very tough one @ UTC. Alternatively, UTC would have wins over Jax St, Wofford, and @ a tough Samford team. So it's not really a question of how many the SoCon deserves per se, but rather the fact a 4th SoCon team could put together a strong resume. The odds of it happening are not great, but if so FU or UTC would belong without a doubt.

It is therefore an understatement to say that much rides on Saturdays UTC/Furman game.

Additionally, the App State/GSU game is a critical one for both teams. Georgia Southern would like to head to Spartanburg where a loss doesn't cost them their chance at the SoCon title and autobid. App State certainly doesn't want to head to Greenville with two conference losses already on their resume.

[Milktruck74]

ASU/GSU is going to be a good game and there is something on the line for both, but Furman/Chattanooga is going to be an "Old Slobberknocker". Both teams realize what is at stake and I fully expect both to bring their best.

[PaladinFan]

ASU/GSU is going to be a good game and there is something on the line for both, but Furman/Chattanooga is going to be an "Old Slobberknocker". Both teams realize what is at stake and I fully expect both to bring their best.

Furman and UTC have a lot of similiarties. Furman is better on the ground, UTC better in the air.

[GaSouthern]

The winner of UTC Furman should be for the 4th playoff spot from the SoCon IMO, who ever wins just needs to keep winning!!!

[asknoquarter21]

Just curious as to what everyone's thoughts are on this one.

Which team has a better chance in the toughest matchup remaining?

Furman against ASU

or

Chattannooga against Wofford

???

Personally I think they are pretty close.

[Go Apps]

Just curious as to what everyone's thoughts are on this one.

Which team has a better chance in the toughest matchup remaining?

Furman against ASU

or

Chattannooga against Wofford

???

Personally I think they are pretty close.

Look like they are too close to call - but I think we learn a lot about Furman and ASU this weekend

[Reign of Terrier]

If Chattanooga keeps winning there's a chance of only 3 playoff teams from the socon.

Go Furman

bleh

[Saint3333]

I think GSU, ASU, Wofford, Furman, and UTC are five of the top 20 teams in the nation, unfortunately one of those five will finish with five losses. The CAA is down, they have some good but no great teams this year.

[Reign of Terrier]

I think GSU, ASU, Wofford, Furman, and UTC are five of the top 20 teams in the nation, unfortunately one of those five will finish with five losses. The CAA is down, they have some good but no great teams this year.
It really wouldn't surprise me if Furman beat Chattanooga and Chattanooga beat Wofford and the socon only sent 2 into the playoffs....sadly I already guaranteed Wofford will make the playoffs, but that's not too dumb of a gesture.

[asumike83]

ASU beats GSU, GSU beats Wofford and The Citadel gets a win in Paulson. Boom! Home field for the Mountaineers. xthumbsupx

[youwouldno]

The SoCon is really, really strong this year. I've noted elsewhere that Sagarin basically has the SoCon on an entirely different level than the rest of FCS. Actually if the season ended today, I think the SoCon would rank as the strongest FCS conference going back to at least 1998, though the CAA had a year that was very close, and in 2008 the SoCon was close, finishing ahead of 3 FBS conferences. The number for this year still can change from remaining OOC games + the playoffs.

[Reign of Terrier]

ASU beats GSU, GSU beats Wofford and The Citadel gets a win in Paulson. Boom! Home field for the Mountaineers. xthumbsupx

I'd imagine App State will get home field for 2 games at least anyway, you're talking about the autobid

[asumike83]

I'd imagine App State will get home field for 2 games at least anyway, you're talking about the autobid

Yeah, the auto-bid and a seed with home field throughout the playoffs if that happened. I was only kidding anyways. As much as I would to see El Cid pull it off, that is a very unlikely scenario.

[Reign of Terrier]

Yeah, the auto-bid and a seed with home field throughout the playoffs if that happened. I was only kidding anyways. As much as I would to see El Cid pull it off, that is a very unlikely scenario.

To be honest, Wofford would probably have to go on the road at some point @KBS or @Paulson if we didn't get the autobid. I don't like that. But I have a feeling it won't, something will happen someone will lose at some point and I don't think we'll see each other in playoffs. That's just my gut talking....or what I really hope will happen

[asknoquarter21]

ASU beats GSU, GSU beats Wofford and The Citadel gets a win in Paulson. Boom! Home field for the Mountaineers. xthumbsupx

Does Citadel really have to beat GSU for ASU to get a #2 seed?

I think if ASU wins out we would need losses by Maine and Montana State, but ASU should get the top seed of Socon teams.

Only if they win out of course.

[PaladinFan]

Does Citadel really have to beat GSU for ASU to get a #2 seed?

I think if ASU wins out we would need losses by Maine and Montana State, but ASU should get the top seed of Socon teams.

Only if they win out of course.

It's going to be an interesting scenario. UTC and Furman are already in playoff "must win" mode.

There's still a lot left to be played. I imagine we'll need to see a team actually win a big game on the road before we start seeding teams.

[asknoquarter21]

It's going to be an interesting scenario. UTC and Furman are already in playoff "must win" mode.

There's still a lot left to be played. I imagine we'll need to see a team actually win a big game on the road before we start seeding teams.

I think we find out a lot after this week. ASU and Furman could both get beat handily. Or they both could win fairly easily.

I think the next two weeks for ASU, Furman and UTC are very interesting

[Reign of Terrier]

Wofford is in playoff mode now, reading some of the players comments in the SHJ today.

[PaladinFan]

I think we find out a lot after this week. ASU and Furman could both get beat handily. Or they both could win fairly easily.

I think the next two weeks for ASU, Furman and UTC are very interesting

Certainly. I am well convinced that App State does not want to take two conference losses to Greenville.

I frankly think the pressure is more on App and UTC than Furman. Furman is in their first season under a new coach and system. If they win, great. If they don't, they have an excuse. Like you saw with GSU last season, that free flowing "nothing to lose" attitude can help out against a team playing against expectations.

[asknoquarter21]

Certainly. I am well convinced that App State does not want to take two conference losses to Greenville.

I frankly think the pressure is more on App and UTC than Furman. Furman is in their first season under a new coach and system. If they win, great. If they don't, they have an excuse. Like you saw with GSU last season, that free flowing "nothing to lose" attitude can help out against a team playing against expectations.

I team with nothing to lose is very dangerous. Let me ask you, if Furman losses @ Chatty how do you expect them to respond. Playoffs would no longer be an option, but you can still gain a ton of momentum for next year.

[OL FU]

I team with nothing to lose is very dangerous. Let me ask you, if Furman losses @ Chatty how do you expect them to respond. Playoffs would no longer be an option, but you can still gain a ton of momentum for next year.

Admittedly we are still in the playoff hunt although hanging by a thread. but even if the playoffs are out of the picture, I would expect them to respond well against ASU. After all, you are ASU and we haven't beaten you since 2005 or is that 1995 (sure seems like it)

[youwouldno]

I don't think the Paladins will have much trouble getting motivated for App St, regardless of what happens at UTC. Winning this week would raise the stakes, but I doubt that would really have too much of an effect either way.