Creating the Playoff Field - 10/23

[TexasTerror]

Think I got this right with no duplicates or teams missing from the field.

AUTOMATIC BIDS
Big Sky: Montana State
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: New Hampshire
MEAC: Norfolk State
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Northeast: Albany
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Lehigh
Southern: Georgia Southern
Southland: Sam Houston State

AT-LARGE BIDS
Big Sky: Montana
Colonial: Towson, Maine, Old Dominion, James Madison
Missouri Valley: North Dakota State, Illinois State, Indiana State
Southern: Appalachian State, Wofford

FIRST ROUND
Norfolk State at Liberty
Albany at James Madison
Indiana State at Montana
Lehigh at Wofford

SECOND ROUND
Norfolk State/Liberty winner at #1 Georgia Southern
Jacksonville State at Old Dominion

Wofford/Lehigh winner at #4 Montana State
Maine at #5 North Dakota State

Montana/Indiana State winner at #3 Sam Houston State
Illinois State at New Hampshire

Albany/James Madison winner at #2 Northern Iowa
Towson at Appalachian State

[UNH Fanboi]

I don't think Lehigh will be in the bottom 8. Their schedule is soft, but their margin of victory and powerful offense will probably be enough to get them a bye. Norfolk State will not get a bye.

I appreciate your vote of confidence in UNH, but they have a very tough road to the AQ. They control their own destiny and will win the AQ if they win out, but going 4-0 vs. URI, JMU, Towson and Maine will be very tough. Having URI, JMU and Maine at home will help, but that is still a very tough stretch. I also don't know if the CAA can get 5 in this year. I could see ODU going 1-2 from here and being left out at 7-4.

Everything else looks pretty reasonable.

[Engineer86]

Wow, do you really like reading the Fan and YT debate that much? I don't see either Lehigh or Wofford playing the first round. Maybe they play in round two and then I hope Lehigh uses some of that endowment money for a home game.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

Most of the autobid conference races seem cut and dry from here. My only disagreement is on the MVC autobid. I just don't think UNI can beat NDSU in Fargo. Can't disagree with the AL picks either now that EWU is eliminated. The only team on your AL list that might get mathematically eliminated is Wofford. Every other team should get to 7 DI wins.

[Tribe4SF]

I think either Maine, or Towson wins the CAA. UNH is one-dimensional against better teams, and Towson and Maine are the type of power teams that will give them problems.

[gasoutherneagle]

CAA is a BLOODBATH right now. Ain't no tellin' how that conference is gonna shake out in the next four weeks.

[Bearkat-Backer]

What are the chances of UCA getting an at large bid if they run the table? They would be 8-3 (7 DI wins) with 2 FBS losses and only conference loss would be to SHSU.

[Gil Dobie]

Maine @ NDSU might finally happen after the 9/11 ordeal.

[TheValleyRaider]

FIRST ROUND
Norfolk State at Liberty
Albany at James Madison
Indiana State at Montana
Lehigh at Wofford

I'm not necessarily going to pass judgment on which round teams ought to be slotted into, but if these are the teams, I would expect to see Albany and Lehigh matched up as the two northeastern schools, with some mixing of JMU, Norfolk, Wofford and Liberty together. I might guess Liberty-JMU and Norfolk St-Wofford, but I suppose any mix would work there

[crusader11]

Eastern Washington is 4-4 and has three games left, so they are not eliminated. Personally, I think they win out and receive an at-large bid.

[Fear the Bird]

Most of the autobid conference races seem cut and dry from here. My only disagreement is on the MVC autobid. I just don't think UNI can beat NDSU in Fargo. Can't disagree with the AL picks either now that EWU is eliminated. The only team on your AL list that might get mathematically eliminated is Wofford. Every other team should get to 7 DI wins.

Why are they eliminated?

[GSU Eagle]

Before Wofford's upset loss yesterday to Furman they were regarded in most every prediction as one of the top 5 seeds. It just seems too big of a drop to go from a top 5 seed to somewhere in the bottom 8 playing in the first round. All 3 SoCon teams right now certainly should be in the top 12 and not playing in the first round.

[danefan]

I think Lehigh will get a home game. They have AQ good history of bidding and they'll probably fall into the top 12 with a bye and not playing a seeded team.

[heath]

Think I got this right with no duplicates or teams missing from the field.

AUTOMATIC BIDS
Big Sky: Montana State
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: New Hampshire
MEAC: Norfolk State
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Northeast: Albany
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Lehigh
Southern: Georgia Southern
Southland: Sam Houston State

AT-LARGE BIDS
Big Sky: Montana
Colonial: Towson, Maine, Old Dominion, James Madison
Missouri Valley: North Dakota State, Illinois State, Indiana State
Southern: Appalachian State, Wofford

FIRST ROUND
Norfolk State at Liberty
Albany at James Madison
Indiana State at Montana
Lehigh at Wofford

SECOND ROUND
Norfolk State/Liberty winner at #1 Georgia Southern
Jacksonville State at Old Dominion

Wofford/Lehigh winner at #4 Montana State
Maine at #5 North Dakota State

Montana/Indiana State winner at #3 Sam Houston State
Illinois State at New Hampshire

Albany/James Madison winner at #2 Northern Iowa
Towson at Appalachian State

First round looks good except ODU at Wofford
Second round-Towson at Lehigh, Jax st at App st and the rest looks good

[Bogus Megapardus]

hope Lehigh uses some of that endowment money for a home game.

That almost certainly won't happen. Host bid shortfall would come out of the athletic budget, if at all. Possibly from supporters by way of special gifts. The only money Lehigh would have to shell out would be the difference between the bid and the net game receipts, if any.

[TexasTerror]

Sports Network bracket... which curiously has Murray State @ Jacksonville State in opening round...


http://www.sportsnetwork.com/fcs/FCS_Bracket.pdf

[Fear the Bird]

Wow no respect to caa? No seed and second rd games vs lehigh, app, wofford...interesting i guess based on the assumption of evrybody beating each other these last few weeks

[TexasTerror]

Wow no respect to caa? No seed and second rd games vs lehigh, app, wofford...interesting i guess based on the assumption of evrybody beating each other these last few weeks

Figure the CAA squads will all get a loss or two down the stretch...

CAA will get plenty of teams in the league, but one thing to consider is that the CAA teams getting into the playoffs this year are not the ones that have historically hosted games and if they do get in, do they have the 'bid' in place to host? See Maine and Towson particularly...

[Cincy App]

Thanks TT for your weekly bracket projections. I enjoy reviewing your brackets and will add mine when a little deeper in the season.

On the other hand, someone needs to give TSN some pointers. Their brackets are embarrassing since they are generated by the primary media outlet of FCS. It's sad that TSN puts two conference teams facing one another in the first round (Murray St and Jax St) and puts both ASU and Montana on the road in their first game. I recognize that Montana is paired with the 5th seed but it would be simple to flip Wofford and Montana so the NCAA can benefit from the Griz hosting a game.

[Reign of Terrier]

Before Wofford's upset loss yesterday to Furman they were regarded in most every prediction as one of the top 5 seeds. It just seems too big of a drop to go from a top 5 seed to somewhere in the bottom 8 playing in the first round. All 3 SoCon teams right now certainly should be in the top 12 and not playing in the first round.

yeah.....if we beat GSU, we'll be right back in it. I still think we're a top 10 team, we just have to "do work." Our playoffs start next week.

[bojeta]

I'm thinking Cal Poly wins its next 4 including its match up with Eastern WA and gets one of the at large spots.

[msupigskin]

Murray State's playoffs started three weeks ago at Ga State. Racers win out and go 8-3 and they'll finish runner-up in the OVC (as projected) and should get a bid, albeit appropriately in the first round. A matchup with Indiana State would make geographic sense. One trip up along the way and MSU is out, of course. Following this weekend's needed bye, big games hosting EKU this Saturday and then Oct 5 at TTU. MSU should be getting healthy after playing the last two games with 7-9 starters out and hopefully most returning for EKU. That should help tons on both sides of the ball. Go Racers!

[TexasTerror]

I'm thinking Cal Poly wins its next 4 including its match up with Eastern WA and gets one of the at large spots.

vs South Dakota, at UC-Davis, vs Eastern Washington, at South Alabama

That's going to be a tough stretch there that a 3-1 record would be impressive. 4-0, that'd be remarkable.

[bojeta]

vs South Dakota, at UC-Davis, vs Eastern Washington, at South Alabama

That's going to be a tough stretch there that a 3-1 record would be impressive. 4-0, that'd be remarkable.

No lie. The weakest team they play, Davis, could be the toughest because it's the rivalry for the Golden Horseshoe and it's at Davis! Keepin the faith!!

[TexasTerror]

No lie. The weakest team they play, Davis, could be the toughest because it's the rivalry for the Golden Horseshoe and it's at Davis! Keepin the faith!!

And the game against South Dakota is likely for the GWFC championship... South Alabama will have 20k plus in the seats and is in a transition to FBS... and EWU is only the defending D1 champ!

[BEAR]

What are the chances of UCA getting an at large bid if they run the table? They would be 8-3 (7 DI wins) with 2 FBS losses and only conference loss would be to SHSU.

That would be nice. xlolx

Remaining schedule:

Southeastern Louisiana at home - W
Northwestern State there - toss up
Texas State at home- L or toss up (FBS transitional)

For UCA to win out and not be considered for a playoff spot after:

Winning 7 in a row.
Taking an FBS to overtime
Beating a transitional FBS
Being ranked preseason and by that time in the top 25

...would be a slap in the face. But it will be difficult to win out I'll even admit that. But UCA's bye week will be after the last game so that will give them 2 weeks of rest before playing in the playoffs. If they can't advance past the first round after that, then they were just good enough to make the field..and that's it. xnodx

[Reign of Terrier]

That would be nice. xlolx

Remaining schedule:

Southeastern Louisiana at home - W
Northwestern State there - toss up
Texas State at home- L or toss up (FBS transitional)

For UCA to win out and not be considered for a playoff spot after:

Winning 7 in a row.
Taking an FBS to overtime
Beating a transitional FBS
Being ranked preseason and by that time in the top 25

...would be a slap in the face. But it will be difficult to win out I'll even admit that. But UCA's bye week will be after the last game so that will give them 2 weeks of rest before playing in the playoffs. If they can't advance past the first round after that, then they were just good enough to make the field..and that's it. xnodx

If UCA wins out, they're in IMO

[Fear the Bird]

nope!

you will fall below the top ten tomorrow and never enter for the rest of the season

Not sure they will fall out of top 10 i have them 9

[Fear the Bird]

Thanks captain obvious i thought they won yesterday

You cant possibly move say montana, jax st, or even appy ahead of them

[Jackman]

FIRST ROUND
Norfolk State at Liberty
Albany at James Madison
Indiana State at Montana
Lehigh at Wofford

If these end up being the First Round teams, the NCAA won't pay to fly 3 of them to their opponents. They'd send Albany to Lehigh and probably Norfolk State to JMU, and Liberty vs Wofford would come down to who bids more (Liberty I'd bet).

[Engineer86]

If these end up being the First Round teams, the NCAA won't pay to fly 3 of them to their opponents. They'd send Albany to Lehigh and probably Norfolk State to JMU, and Liberty vs Wofford would come down to who bids more (Liberty I'd bet).

I hope you are right. It has been a long time since the JMU 7 play drive from the Lehigh 1yd line (unsportsmanlike penalty for a 20 yr old getting excited about holding for 4 downs). Last years game on a computer feed just didn't cut it.

[heath]

If these end up being the First Round teams, the NCAA won't pay to fly 3 of them to their opponents. They'd send Albany to Lehigh and probably Norfolk State to JMU, and Liberty vs Wofford would come down to who bids more (Liberty I'd bet).

These matchups make since, but Lehigh gets a bye unless they lose a game.Until the CAA becomes clear its a crap shoot.I can see their at large teams taking 3 of the 1st round spots.

[Fear the Bird]

These matchups make since, but Lehigh gets a bye unless they lose a game.Until the CAA becomes clear its a crap shoot.I can see their at large teams taking 3 of the 1st round spots.

CAA is always this muddy at this point doesnt matter that it isnt "traditional powers" just know that last year all 4 CAA teams had byes and 2 were seeds

[FargoBison]

My take...This is based on if the season ended today(I won't even bother trying to guess who beats who)....


AUTOMATIC BIDS
Big Sky: Montana State
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: Maine
MEAC: Norfolk State
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Northeast: Albany
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Lehigh
Southern: Georgia Southern
Southland: Sam Houston State

AT-LARGE BIDS
Big Sky: Montana
Colonial: Towson, Maine, ODU and James Madison
Missouri Valley: North Dakota State, Illinois State and Indiana State
Southern: Appalachian State and Wofford

Last five out: Cal Poly, Furman, Chattanooga, EWU and Sacramento State

First Round
Norfolk State vs ODU
Albany vs Montana
Illinois State vs Liberty
Indiana State vs Jacksonville State

Second Round
Indiana St/Jacksonville St winner vs #1 UNI
Wofford vs JMU

Albany/Montana winner vs #4 Montana State
Lehigh vs #5 Maine

Illinois State/Liberty winner vs #3 NDSU
UNH vs SHSU

NSU/ODU winner vs #2 GSU
Towson vs App State

[jmufan999]

CAA is always this muddy at this point doesnt matter that it isnt "traditional powers" just know that last year all 4 CAA teams had byes and 2 were seeds

Exactly. I can't remember many years where the CAA didn't have any seeds. I'm sure there are a few years, but it doesn't happen often. People were up in arms about us having 2 seeds last year. I don't think there is ANY chance that the CAA doesn't get a seed.

[danefan]

My take...This is based on if the season ended today(I won't even bother trying to guess who beats who)....


AUTOMATIC BIDS
Big Sky: Montana State
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: Maine
MEAC: Norfolk State
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Northeast: Albany
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Lehigh
Southern: Georgia Southern
Southland: Sam Houston State

AT-LARGE BIDS
Big Sky: Montana
Colonial: Towson, Maine, ODU and James Madison
Missouri Valley: North Dakota State, Illinois State and Indiana State
Southern: Appalachian State and Wofford

Last five out: Cal Poly, Furman, Chattanooga, EWU and Sacramento State

First Round
Norfolk State vs ODU
Albany vs Montana
Illinois State vs Liberty
Indiana State vs Jacksonville State

Second Round
Indiana St/Jacksonville St winner vs #1 UNI
Wofford vs JMU

Albany/Montana winner vs #4 Montana State
Lehigh vs #5 Maine

Illinois State/Liberty winner vs #3 NDSU
UNH vs SHSU

NSU/ODU winner vs #2 GSU
Towson vs App State

Now that I like!

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

If Lehigh wins out they'll get a bye and have a very good chance to host. They've put up the money in the past.

If they lose one game they'll still get in imo. They might host the NEC champ in the opening round in that case.

[extremerouge]

My take...This is based on if the season ended today(I won't even bother trying to guess who beats who)....


AUTOMATIC BIDS
Big Sky: Montana State
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: Maine
MEAC: Norfolk State
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Northeast: Albany
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Lehigh
Southern: Georgia Southern
Southland: Sam Houston State

AT-LARGE BIDS
Big Sky: Montana
Colonial: Towson, Maine, ODU and James Madison
Missouri Valley: North Dakota State, Illinois State and Indiana State
Southern: Appalachian State and Wofford

Last five out: Cal Poly, Furman, Chattanooga, EWU and Sacramento State

First Round
Norfolk State vs ODU
Albany vs Montana
Illinois State vs Liberty
Indiana State vs Jacksonville State

Second Round
Indiana St/Jacksonville St winner vs #1 UNI
Wofford vs JMU

Albany/Montana winner vs #4 Montana State
Lehigh vs #5 Maine

Illinois State/Liberty winner vs #3 NDSU
UNH vs SHSU

NSU/ODU winner vs #2 GSU
Towson vs App State

A problem I see with this is that there are several potential conference matchups in the second round, maybe there would be some maneuvering there...

[FargoBison]

A problem I see with this is that there are several potential conference matchups in the second round, maybe there would be some maneuvering there...

Believe me, I'd love to do that but the NCAA wants some kind of regional integrity so it is kind of hard to avoid.

[ngineer]

If these end up being the First Round teams, the NCAA won't pay to fly 3 of them to their opponents. They'd send Albany to Lehigh and probably Norfolk State to JMU, and Liberty vs Wofford would come down to who bids more (Liberty I'd bet).

Very likely match up and venue. Would be good as we had a heck of a game in the mud back in 2006. Of course, I'd like it to be the second round game after a bye!:D

[danefan]

Very likely match up and venue. Would be good as we had a heck of a game in the mud back in 2006. Of course, I'd like it to be the second round game after a bye!:D

So would I because that would mean a playoff win for us.

[Srdnaty]

I think either Maine, or Towson wins the CAA. UNH is one-dimensional against better teams, and Towson and Maine are the type of power teams that will give them problems.

I agree. I don't think UNH will win out. UNH will loose to either Towson or Maine.

What it looks like now...
I see Maine winning 3 of 4 (@Nova, Umass, Towson, @UNH) puts Maine at 9-2 (7-1)
I see Towson winning 3 of 4 (Del, @Maine, UNH, @URI) puts Towson at 9-2 (7-1)
I see UNH winning 2 of 4 (URI, JMU, @Towson, Maine) puts UNH at 7-4 (5-3)
I see JMU winning 3 of 4 (@ODU, @UNH, URI, @Umass) puts JMU at 8-3 (6-2)
I see ODU winning 1 of 3 (JMU, UR, @W&M) put ODU at 7-4 (4-4)

CAA winner will probably come down to Saturday, November 5th, 2011 in Orono (Towson @ Maine). I could see Maine loosing any of their last 3. I could see Towson loosing their next 3. I could see UNH loosing last 3. I don't think any of these senarios plays out, but I do think it will be interesting. I think Maine or Towson win the conference. The loser, UNH, and JMU getting in.

[UIWWildthing]

I don't care who or where Towson plays, I want them in it first.

[Professor Chaos]

Here's what I figure it to be if the playoffs started this week (autobids in CAPS):

Winner of Indiana St at JACKSONVILLE ST
at
(1) GEORGIA SOUTHERN

New Hampshire
at
Montana

Winner of Illinois St at James Madison
at
(4) MONTANA ST

Wofford
at
(5) SAM HOUSTON ST

Winner of NORFOLK ST at Old Dominion
at
(2) NORTHERN IOWA

Towson
at
Appalachian St

Winner of ALBANY at LIBERTY
at
(3) North Dakota St

LEHIGH
at
MAINE

Bids by conference: CAA - 5, MVC - 4, SOCON - 3, Big Sky - 2, SLC/OVC/Patriot/Big South/NEC/MEAC - 1 each

Last 4 in: James Madison, Old Dominion, Indiana St, Illinois St.
First 4 out: Central Arkansas, Cal Poly, Furman, Eastern Washington

A couple notes:
1) The last 2 at larges (ISU blue and red) are on very tenous footing. There are a lot of teams that are within striking distance of them. Having said that, the weakness all that parity creates makes JMU and ODU pretty solidly in right now, in my opinion, even though I have them in my last 4 in.
2) The last two in my "last 4 out" could be easily interchangeable with a number of teams with .500 or slightly better records in the power conferences. I put EWU in there because of their GPI stature and 4-2 conference record.

[UNIFanSince1983]

UNH has a brutal remaining schedule. Luckily 3 of the 4 are at home, but still they could very well lose 3 of their last 4.

[Fear the Bird]

You all are on crack if you dont think the CAA champ gets a seed

[achrist70]

You all are on crack if you dont think the CAA champ gets a seed

I think the nature of the CAA this year with no one really wanting to take control of the conference may keep it from getting a seed, although Maine and Towson both still have excellent opportunities, they have to overcome a lower early season ranking however.

[Squealofthepig]

You all are on crack if you dont think the CAA champ gets a seed

It depends really on how the games play out. If the CAA plays out down the stretch like the MVFC did last year, then I see the CAA not getting a seed but getting a lot of teams in; if Maine or Towson can prove they're absolutely the tops, they get a seed and fewer teams get in overall at the expense of that dominance.

[JMUNJ08]

I think the nature of the CAA this year with no one really wanting to take control of the conference may keep it from getting a seed, although Maine and Towson both still have excellent opportunities, they have to overcome a lower early season ranking however.

Luckily, our polls don't play in to the whole thing....Maine & Towson, if one wins out, could be seeded. The key would be that big games like the NDSU/UNI ones need to show a clear winner in order for one of them to move down far enough on the scale to fall out of the top 5 (which i see as UNI/GSU/NDSU/SHSU/MSU) with Maine/Towson probably at 6

[TexasTerror]

CAA still has a chance at a seed...

Maine or Towson have to at least lose one with their match-up forthcoming. No telling what UNH does against the two schools and James Madison gets to play ODU and UNH - should be fun!

[WrenFGun]

If UNH wins out, they should be seeded; unlikely, but winning out over JMU, Towson and Maine should warrant a seed.

Like probably a few others, UNH controls their own destiny in the CAA; after homecoming with URI next week (no easy game for sure), we get JMU at home, go to Towson, and close with Maine at home.

The Maine game could potentially be for the CAA title if both teams win out, which is long odds.

[TexasTerror]

If UNH wins out, they should be seeded; unlikely, but winning out over JMU, Towson and Maine should warrant a seed.

Like probably a few others, UNH controls their own destiny in the CAA; after homecoming with URI next week (no easy game for sure), we get JMU at home, go to Towson, and close with Maine at home.

The Maine game could potentially be for the CAA title if both teams win out, which is long odds.

The CAA race is shaping up to be a good one, but when doesn't it?

Wish everyone would play everyone in the CAA though, think it would be more enjoyable...

[Professor Chaos]

You all are on crack if you dont think the CAA champ gets a seed
With the current status of the top level CAA teams it's impossible to say that a CAA champ for sure will get a seed. I'd say it's likely if that team that separates themselves finishes 9-2 or better. Between GSU/UNI/NDSU/MSU/SHSU you've got 4 seeds IMO. That leaves 1 seed to fight for between the top CAA teams and the team left out of the top 4 in that group (Wofford could even sneak into the discussion with a win over GSU). I'd say it's pretty concievable to see the CAA champ at 8-3 and unseeded. That doesn't mean the CAA is down (they'll still get 5 of their 10 eligible teams into the playoffs), it just mean there isn't a dominant team.

[ccd494]

So people are saying that if either Maine or Towson wins out, is sitting at 10-1 (8-0), that isn't enough separation or dominance for a seed? That's Crazy Talk.

http://images.tvrage.com/screencaps/31/6190/206711.jpg

[andy7171]

So people are saying that if either Maine or Towson wins out, is sitting at 10-1 (8-0), that isn't enough separation or dominance for a seed? That's Crazy Talk.

http://images.tvrage.com/screencaps/31/6190/206711.jpg

This.

[UNH Fanboi]

So people are saying that if either Maine or Towson wins out, is sitting at 10-1 (8-0), that isn't enough separation or dominance for a seed? That's Crazy Talk.

I think people are saying that the CAA champ could end up being 9-2 or even 8-3, in which case a seed would not be guaranteed.

[TexasTerror]

So people are saying that if either Maine or Towson wins out, is sitting at 10-1 (8-0), that isn't enough separation or dominance for a seed? That's Crazy Talk.

If either of them finishes 10-1 (8-0), they would be a seed.

My projections are that neither will finish with a 10-1 (8-0) record. I expect each to get to their second loss with one obviously guaranteed of that happening based on head-to-head.


I think people are saying that the CAA champ could end up being 9-2 or even 8-3, in which case a seed would not be guaranteed.

Correct!

[Professor Chaos]

So people are saying that if either Maine or Towson wins out, is sitting at 10-1 (8-0), that isn't enough separation or dominance for a seed? That's Crazy Talk.
People may be saying that but they'd be wrong. Even a 9-2 Maine/Towson with the CAA autobid would get a seed IMO.

[bjtheflamesfan]

Its pretty much a two horse race in the Big South right now...Coastal could solidify Liberty's position in the driver's seat by knocking off Stony Brook this weekend.

[TexasTerror]

People may be saying that but they'd be wrong. Even a 9-2 Maine/Towson with the CAA autobid would get a seed IMO.

When is that loss? And who are we comparing them to? If UNI beats NDSU and both teams win out going forward, are they both deserving of a seed? Does an undefeated or 10-1 SHSU team automatically get a seed? What happens to Montana State if they run the table?

[Professor Chaos]

When is that loss? And who are we comparing them to? If UNI beats NDSU and both teams win out going forward, are they both deserving of a seed? Does an undefeated or 10-1 SHSU team automatically get a seed? What happens to Montana State if they run the table?
A 9-2 Maine/Towson could easily get seeded before a 9-2 UNI/MSU or 10-1 NDSU/SHSU. It's possible a 9-2 CAA champ wouldn't get seeded but it would take both NDSU and UNI getting seeded over them and MSU and SHSU running the table. I don't see all that happening.

[Reign of Terrier]

What about a 9-2 Wofford/GSU/ App State? Can you say monkey wrench?! it's a little early to be predicting seeds IMO right now it's easier/more cut and dry to predict who is most definitely in/most definitely out.

[Professor Chaos]

What about a 9-2 Wofford/GSU/ App State? Can you say monkey wrench?! it's a little early to be predicting seeds IMO right now it's easier/more cut and dry to predict who is most definitely in/most definitely out.
Yup, totally agree with that. I just think a 9-2 CAA team that's 7-1 in that conference this year would overtake teams with similar records from the SOCON/BSC/MVFC. You can also never discount the $$$$ factor. If it comes down to whether you seed an NDSU/ASU/GSU type that averages over 18K per home game or seed a Maine type that averages 6-8K with a comparable resume, that could swing the pendulum away from the potential CAA champ. We all know how the NCAA loves money.

[mainejeff]

Yup, totally agree with that. I just think a 9-2 CAA team that's 7-1 in that conference this year would overtake teams with similar records from the SOCON/BSC/MVFC. You can also never discount the $$$$ factor. If it comes down to whether you seed an NDSU/ASU/GSU type that averages over 18K per home game or seed a Maine type that averages 6-8K with a comparable resume, that could swing the pendulum away from the potential CAA champ. We all know how the NCAA loves money.

But doesn't everyone draw bad crowds for the playoffs?

[Twentysix]

again, this depends on how close the UNI/NDSU game ends up. A UNI slaughter would put NDSU out of the seed group.

Maybe, NDSU might get a seed(@10-1) because if they host outside of tgiving you will see 17,000-19,000 in the stands.

It would depend who else is in the running for the seeds, I would think.

Even during Thanksgiving during a 7-4 campaign we pulled in over 12k to see a team no one in fargo has ever heard of before.

[Twentysix]

Ok, but maybe I will make it very simple

say UNI beats NDSU by 58-7

do you think that anyone in their right might would put NDSU as a top 5 seed, no matter what their potential attendance might be?

The NCAA cares about gate, if the #5 seed would in turn go to a team that can only get 5000 people to game, then yes I think NDSU would still get the seed.

If you are talking about fans assessments of seeding no probably not. But in the real world money runs the show.

[Professor Chaos]

But doesn't everyone draw bad crowds for the playoffs?
From what I've seen everyone draws bad crowds on the opening weekend of the playoffs (after Thanksgiving) but its proportionately bad. By that I mean two thirds of your normal crowd so you're still looking at a 12-15K crowd in Fargo compared to a 4-6K crowd in Maine. The first weekend in December for the round of 16 will draw pretty well I think since it's after the holiday, school is still in session, and home teams are able to sell tickets for 2 weeks instead of one with the bye.

[Twentysix]

Last year EWU won the NC, and EWU was the #1 team to end the regular season.

EWU was awarded the #5 seed. All of the teams seeded ahead of them have significantly larger stadiums and much better attendance.

[mainejeff]

From what I've seen everyone draws bad crowds on the opening weekend of the playoffs (after Thanksgiving) but its proportionately bad. By that I mean two thirds of your normal crowd so you're still looking at a 12-15K crowd in Fargo compared to a 4-6K crowd in Maine. The first weekend in December for the round of 16 will draw pretty well I think since it's after the holiday, school is still in session, and home teams are able to sell tickets for 2 weeks instead of one with the bye.

Maine isn't drawing less than 6K if they get their FIRST EVER PLAYOFF HOME GAME.......guaranteed!

[Twentysix]

Maine isn't drawing less than 6K if they get their FIRST EVER PLAYOFF HOME GAME.......guaranteed!

You must realize a playoff game at NDSU drawing 12k is 225,000 for the NCAA on just attendance.

I dont know what Maine charges for tickets but we will say 8 bucks a seat. Thats only 36,000 for the NCAA.

The NCAA pays all of the bills for the traveling team. The money teams make for them is fairly important to the playoff structure.

A crowd of 19,000 at NDSU makes the NCAA 360,000 on just attendance.

*I looked on maines website and I could only find $8 a ticket. But no way to purchase them.

[mainejeff]

You must realize a playoff game at NDSU drawing 12k is 225,000 for the NCAA on just attendance.

I dont know what Maine charges for tickets but we will say 20 bucks a seat. Thats only 90,000 for the NCAA.

The NCAA pays all of the bills for the traveling team. The money teams make for them is fairly important to the playoff structure.

A crowd of 19,000 at NDSU makes the NCAA 360,000 on just attendance.

I really don't give a crap about NDSU.......you're probably getting a seed anyway. Aren't their 5 seeds???? Why are you getting so defensive and pitting NDSU against Maine? Yes, NDSU draws well........effing congrats!!!!!!

[Twentysix]

I reallky don't give a crap about NDSU.......you're probably getting a seed anyway. Aren't their 5 seeds???? Why are you getting so defensive and pitting NDSU against Maine? Yes, NDSU draws well........effing congrats!!!!!!

Just saying that attendance factors into the seeding. Last year EWU only got a #5 seed and probably deserved a #1 or #2 seed. Its cause they wouldnt of made the NCAA alot of money. If maine were in position for what should be a #1 seed they would probably get a #5 seed.

If they are in position to get a #5 seed they probably wont get one. Maybe the NCAA will do this year purely based on merit, and money wont matter. Who knows.

I am pitting NDSU against Maine because if we lose to UNI and win out it will probably be your scenario maine vs NDSU for the #5 seed.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

From everything that I've read and seen, attendance has nothing to do with the seed selection. Colgate was a seed in 2003, UNH was a seed in 2005, just off the top of my head. and my memory also says that the NCAA sets the price for the playoff tickets and IIRC they are the same at every venue. Maine charging $8 is not applicable.

And what's with this nobody draws on Thanksgiving weekend? UNH was over capacity in 2005 even with the notorious under reporting that goes on. And being in the stands then as well as during many other way over capacity crowds at Cowell, there were many more people present in 2005 for both Colgate and UNI then what was reported.

[mainejeff]

Just saying that attendance factors into the seeding. Last year EWU only got a #5 seed and probably deserved a #1 or #2 seed. Its cause they wouldnt of made the NCAA alot of money. If maine were in position for what should be a #1 seed they would probably get a #5 seed.

If they are in position to get a #5 seed they probably wont get one. Maybe the NCAA will do this year purely based on merit, and money wont matter. Who knows.

I am pitting NDSU against Maine because if we lose to UNI and win out it will probably be your scenario maine vs NDSU for the #5 seed.

Eastern Washington was 9-2 last season with 1 win over a Top 25 opponent going into the playoffs. There was a reason that they were a 5 seed and not a 1 seed.......and it wasn't about attendance.

[No_Skill]

Potential croud is certainly not the only factor in selecting the seeds, but if you think it doesn't play a role you're fooling yourself.

[mainejeff]

Potential croud is certainly not the only factor in selecting the seeds, but if you think it doesn't play a role you're fooling yourself.

Sounds like you are worried that NDSU might be judged on their SOS and won-loss record.

[No_Skill]

No, I just live in reality.

I never said that's how it should be or that I agree with it.

[UNIFanSince1983]

Honestly, most times teams draw bad on Thanksgiving weekend. There are exceptions like UNH in 2005 when they were the #1 seed, and UNI in 2007 when we were the #1 seed we had 16k.

Last year, however, for the Lehigh game there were only 5k. In 2008 we got 8k for the game against Maine. There may be some teams that will draw well no matter what, but I guarantee over the first weekend you will see the worst playoff attendance every where.

[mainejeff]

No, I just live in reality.

I never said that's how it should be or that I agree with it.

Your "reality" means nothing.

Go UNI!

[No_Skill]

Your "reality" means nothing.

Go UNI!

Hopefully both our teams will make the playoffs. Best of luck the rest of the way.

[Srdnaty]

Maine isn't drawing less than 6K if they get their FIRST EVER PLAYOFF HOME GAME.......guaranteed!

Agreed. Maine averages around 5-6k now but I would guess that they have one of the lowest student attendances at their level. The point I'm trying to make is that I don't think Maine would be affected as much as most school in terms of playoff attendance because of their low student turn out. The fact that students are on break wouldn't hurt us as much. This is a guess based on my observations.

Let me add that I realize that the committtee will not consider this.

[mainejeff]

Hopefully both our teams will make the playoffs. Best of luck the rest of the way.

Yeah, you too!

[mainejeff]

Agreed. Maine averages around 5-6k now but I would guess that they have one of the lowest student attendances at their level. The point I'm trying to make is that I don't think Maine would be affected as much as most school in terms of playoff attendance because of their low student turn out. The fact that students are on break wouldn't hurt us as much. This is a guess based on my observations.

Let me add that I realize that the committtee will not consider this.

Yeah, it's kinda sad that Maine is the only CAA team that has to go 10-1 to get a home playoff game and even that isn't guaranteed.

[Squealofthepig]

Honestly, most times teams draw bad on Thanksgiving weekend. .

Historically, there are only three teams that consistently pack the stadium that weekend: Montana, GSU and App State. As there are only three teams that do so, I would argue gate revenue should basically just be ignored. (I would stipulate that NDSU probably would also draw really well for that weekend, as I think the Bison pack it in for that weekend).

[Squealofthepig]

Yeah, it's kinda sad that Maine is the only CAA team that has to go 10-1 to get a home playoff game and even that isn't guaranteed.

I'll agree with this; but then I do so mainly because I would love to see the Battle of the Bears restored. :) It would be great if our ursine brethren in Orono could get some hometown cooking going!

[Pitz]

Sports Network bracket... which curiously has Murray State @ Jacksonville State in opening round...


http://www.sportsnetwork.com/fcs/FCS_Bracket.pdf

Haha, wow. Even if you can somehow warp yourself into thinking the OVC will receive two bids this year, teams from the same conference cannot play each other in the first round (or second round if it's the first game for both teams).

Why does that site get any credibility?

[jmufan999]

Yeah, it's kinda sad that Maine is the only CAA team that has to go 10-1 to get a home playoff game and even that isn't guaranteed.

Don't worry, dude. Win the conference, you'll get a seed. Happens pretty much every year. Last time the CAA didn't get a seed was 2007, and even then it was because of a weird circumstance... the top 4 seeds were a combined 43-1 so it's hard not to give a seed to teams that go 11-0 or 10-1 (unless there are D-II teams on the schedule).

Funny part is that the title game was between unseeded App State and unseeded Delaware.

Beat Towson (and I think you will), and you win the CAA. Win the CAA and you'll get a top 4 seed, maybe top 3.

[knucklehead]

I like the Liberty / Norfolk St game and hope that holds. We would have 20+K for that one.

If Liberty makes it through that I'd like to see us play Maine . We'll take GSU too though. I'll just be glad to see LU in!