CAA Playoff Scenarios

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Towson 6-1 (4-0)
Maine 6-1 (4-0)
JMU 5-2 (3-1)
UNH 5-2 (3-1)
ODU 6-2 (3-2)

One of these five teams will be the CAA auto-bid.

Richmond could only get playoff-eligible with 7 D-I wins if they win out.

Everyone else cannot make the 7 D-I win threshold (Delaware, W&M, Villanova, URI) or are ineligble (UMass).

The only way Towson and Maine don't make the field is if they both lose out, and they play each other, so at least one will have 7 D-I wins.

The only way ODU doesn't make 7 D-I wins is if they go 0-3.

The only way JMU and UNH don't get to 7 D-I wins is if either go 1-3, and they play each other, meaning it's very likely at least one of them will have two wins the rest of the way.

So it looks like one autobid (probably Maine or Towson) are in, and two CAA at-large bids are in (the Towson/Maine loser, plus the JMU/UNH winner) are locks.

The only question is, how many 7-4 CAA teams will the committee take?

[superman7515]

Delaware is still mathematically alive to win the CAA.

[ODUsmitty]

ODU is 3-2 in conference.

[Srdnaty]

Could Maine ever get a home playoff games? Im guessing logisticly no. Thoughts?

[umaine21]

Would Maine ever get a home playoff games? Im guessing logisticly no. Thoughts?

If they did ever get a home playoff game I pity the team that has to come up and play in the snow. I'd take the W

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Delaware is still mathematically alive to win the CAA.

I think the best you can do is a Towson, UNH, and Delaware coin flip at 4-3 in conference, is that right?

[dunbar]

Would Maine ever get a home playoff games? Im guessing logisticly no. Thoughts?

If they bid (assuming Abbott does the smart thing) enough or get a top 5 seed, then yes, there will be playoff games in Orono, IN DECEMBER.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

If Maine is 10-1, they'd have to be seeded, right?

[spdram]

Likely, but they need to run the ball beter to make noise in the playoffs.

[BlueHenSinfonian]

I think the best you can do is a Towson, UNH, and Delaware coin flip at 4-3 in conference, is that right?

Delaware can go 5-3 in conference with wins over Towson, Richmond, and 'Nova. To get the CAA win though Towson can only win 1 remaining game (assuming they lose to Delaware in this scenario), Maine has to lose out, and JMU/UNH can win at most 1 game each, and since they play each other, I guess it would have to be that game. ODU could win 2 games and be 5-3 in conference, but Delaware has the head to head.

I broke it all down in this thread:

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?97654-CAA-playoff-prospectus

I'm not sure what happens if UNH and/or JMU get to 5 conference wins along with Delaware.

[umaine21]

If Maine is 10-1, they'd have to be seeded, right?

Should be. At 10-1 with the games left on the schedule they would have wins over two more top 15 teams that should put them up in the top 5.

[mainejeff]

If they bid (assuming Abbott does the smart thing) enough or get a top 5 seed, then yes, there will be playoff games in Orono, IN DECEMBER.

New Balance just gave the athletic dept. $5 million........they SHOULD have the money to bid!

And this snow thing.......has it EVER snowed anywhere during the NCAA playoffs?........I'm sure all of those playoff games in Boone, Missoula, Durham, Hamilton, etc have been absolutely balmy!

[Squealofthepig]

Delaware is still mathematically alive to win the CAA.

This sounds like something a Cubs fan would say at the All-Star break. It IS mathematically possible, but I wouldn't put money on it, as it means every game for every team in the CAA has to play out like this:

Delaware wins out, and gets to 5-3. This includes beating Towson head-to-head, which is the key.

Towson could lose out, except to Maine, which would get them to 5-3 and the Hens would get the autobid by virtue of the head to head win. (Maine and Towson play each other, so they can't both lose out unless they simultaneously forfeit to each other).

That means Maine gets to win one, but then they have to lose to New Hampshire (and lose out otherwise).

New Hampshire gets that win, so would have to lose to JMU.

JMU would get that one win, but then has to give a win to ODU

ODU gets the win at JMU, but no other.

And UMass would also have to lose to Richmond and Nova, so that they can collect wins from Maine and JMU.

Rhode Island would also have to lose to William & Mary, as otherwise they'd finish at 5-3 in conference.

And the Tribe? They'd probably then have to lose at Richmond.

So if Delaware, Richmond and Villanova win out and every other game goes like that, then yes, Delaware can win.

Ouch, my head hurts.

[mainejeff]

Delaware can go 5-3 in conference with wins over Towson, Richmond, and 'Nova. To get the CAA win though Towson can only win 1 remaining game (assuming they lose to Delaware in this scenario), Maine has to lose out, and JMU/UNH can win at most 1 game each, and since they play each other, I guess it would have to be that game. ODU could win 2 games and be 5-3 in conference, but Delaware has the head to head.

I broke it all down in this thread:

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?97654-CAA-playoff-prospectus

I'm not sure what happens if UNH and/or JMU get to 5 conference wins along with Delaware.

You just lost to URI.......give it up.

[UNH Fanboi]

Why are you even wasting time thinking about this? Delaware is done.

[UNHFan]

Why are you even wasting time thinking about this? Delaware is done.

Amen!! Toast!!! Horrible!! I watched that whole UMass/Del game...... Done!! UNH maybe if we can just leave decker alone!!! Let him call his own plays!! lol STAUBACH!!!!!! lol

[HailSzczur]

I recall seeing the 2009 semi in Missoula against App where there was snow fall. And the same year in the quarterfinals we beat UNH down here in the snow.

It seems that when people see Maine the just think of snow, moose, and maybe LL Bean

[superman7515]

Why are you even wasting time thinking about this? Delaware is done.

Yep. I already said Delaware will lose to Towson. Toast.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Colgate/Western Illinois in 2003 was a snow game - a classic - and I think Colgate/UMass was as well in the same year.

[BlueHenSinfonian]

Why are you even wasting time thinking about this? Delaware is done.

I wasn't saying that it was in any way likely, just remotely possible. At this point realistically we can look forward to finally getting the 'Nova monkey off our back, but that's about it.

I do think we'll beat Towson, but find some way to lose to Richmond, that's just how this year's team has been...

[BlueHenSinfonian]

This sounds like something a Cubs fan would say at the All-Star break. It IS mathematically possible, but I wouldn't put money on it, as it means every game for every team in the CAA has to play out like this:

Delaware wins out, and gets to 5-3. This includes beating Towson head-to-head, which is the key.

Towson could lose out, except to Maine, which would get them to 5-3 and the Hens would get the autobid by virtue of the head to head win. (Maine and Towson play each other, so they can't both lose out unless they simultaneously forfeit to each other).

That means Maine gets to win one, but then they have to lose to New Hampshire (and lose out otherwise).

New Hampshire gets that win, so would have to lose to JMU.

JMU would get that one win, but then has to give a win to ODU

ODU gets the win at JMU, but no other.

And UMass would also have to lose to Richmond and Nova, so that they can collect wins from Maine and JMU.

Rhode Island would also have to lose to William & Mary, as otherwise they'd finish at 5-3 in conference.

And the Tribe? They'd probably then have to lose at Richmond.

So if Delaware, Richmond and Villanova win out and every other game goes like that, then yes, Delaware can win.

Ouch, my head hurts.

If Maine wins any game UD is out, as that gives Maine 5 CAA wins and the head to head vs. UD. Towson needs to beat Maine, and lose to UD (and everyone else on their schedule) giving Towson 5 wins, but the loss in head to head. If either JMU or UNH win 3, they put UD out. If they win 2, it sets up a potential 3 way tie at 5 wins, but since they play each other, one would have the head to head, but it still puts UD tied with the other without a game between them.

You're right, it's too complicated, and so unlikely to happen it's probably not worth thinking about, I was just putting it out there that it was in some way possible.

[Squealofthepig]

If Maine wins any game UD is out, as that gives Maine 5 CAA wins and the head to head vs. UD. Towson needs to beat Maine, and lose to UD (and everyone else on their schedule) giving Towson 5 wins, but the loss in head to head. If either JMU or UNH win 3, they put UD out. If they win 2, it sets up a potential 3 way tie at 5 wins, but since they play each other, one would have the head to head, but it still puts UD tied with the other without a game between them.

You're right, it's too complicated, and so unlikely to happen it's probably not worth thinking about, I was just putting it out there that it was in some way possible.

Oops, good point. I just thought I'd take a look to see how unlikely it is, and it wound up being much more ridiculous than I thought.


I am still amazed that one of the games I'm looking forward to the most in the last part of the season is Maine/Towson. xsmileyclapx

[Longhorn]

Delaware is still mathematically alive to win the CAA.

UD (at best) can finish with 6 D1 wins. No team with 6 D1 wins will make the playoffs. So, stick a fork in the hens, they're done. My guess is the CAA will see 3, possibly 4 teams in the playoffs this year.

[AppMAN04]

WOW! I never thought I would see the day that the auto bid may be Maine or Towson


In my opinion the CAA will see 3 teams make the playoffs

[Mattymc727]

Towson, Maine, New Hampshire, JMU.....what a wild world

[owascoag]

Love to see a playoff game in Orono. Let's bring a warm weather team in there.

[ccd494]

WOW! I never thought I would see the day that the auto bid may be Maine or Towson

You have seen that day. Up close and in person:

http://scores.espn.go.com/ncf/boxscore?gameId=223342026

[GaSouthern]

I recall seeing the 2009 semi in Missoula against App where there was snow fall.
That was an AWESOME game!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VFNeSuXf7gw


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0ZDVRNfP_s

[andy7171]

There was snow in the EWU NDSU game last year.

[appfan2008]

last year there was 4 inches of snow in the first half of ASU's second round game... one that I will never forget...