Is it pretty much a given that any SoCon team with 7 D1 wins gets into playoffs?

[GSU Eagle]

With 20 teams now in playoffs, it seems to me that barring a number of shocking events that give autobids to fairly poor teams pretty much any SoCon team with 7
D1 will make the playoffs. I think 3 will meet this criteria from the SoCon this year.

[GSU EAGLES]

SoCon is the highest rated FCS conference according to Saragin, so it is time for 4 teams to make the playoffs similar to what the CAA has done in previous years.

[Reign of Terrier]

3, no more than 4 will meet that criteria, and I think the same can be said about a CAA or Big Sky team as well. Really, I think it wouldn't be as stretch to say that if you get 7 D1 wins you should probably get in regardless of conference affiliation.

[chattanoogamocs]

If you are talking about 3 teams...then yes...I think that would be near automatic.

And I still think 4 teams isn't inconceivable either. For instance, I think UTC could get in as a 4th team with 7 wins (because that means they would have wins over Wofford and JSU, both top 10 teams). UTC gets the nod for their tough schedule (which is why they are the only under .500 team in the GPI top 25)

[chattanoogamocs]

Really, I think it wouldn't be as stretch to say that if you get 7 D1 wins you should probably get in regardless of conference affiliation.

I don't think I would go so far to say "regardless of conference affiliation"....but if you are in any of the top 3-4 conference and get 7 DI wins, there is a high probability your team will get an at-large.

[Reign of Terrier]

I don't think I would go so far to say "regardless of conference affiliation"....but if you are in any of the top 3-4 conference and get 7 DI wins, there is a high probability your team will get an at-large.

Well, let me take that back....if you're in a full-scholly conference, it wouldn't surprise me if you got in regardless of affiliation. The thing is that the weak conference teams like the Big South is they average member has a hard time getting 7 total wins let alone 7 D1 wins

[chattanoogamocs]

(and I am not saying there aren't scenarios where other teams besides UTC could be a 4th...I, obviously, have just paid closer attention to the Mocs season/schedule)

[Reign of Terrier]

(and I am not saying there aren't scenarios where other teams besides UTC could be a 4th...I, obviously, have just paid closer attention to the Mocs season/schedule)

Right now, Furman, Elon, The Citadel, Chattanooga, and Samford all have a chance at getting in behind App, Wofford, and GSU....but they all need to win out against at least FCS competition and I don't see Elon, Furman, or the Citadel making it for sure. Samford could be out this week as well....we'll have a better projection after this week

[CID1990]

Well, let me take that back....if you're in a full-scholly conference, it wouldn't surprise me if you got in regardless of affiliation. The thing is that the weak conference teams like the Big South is they average member has a hard time getting 7 total wins let alone 7 D1 wins

Yeah, that's better. Jacksonville will likely have 7 D-1 wins this year (and of course they'll be clamoring for a bid they don't deserve).

[chattanoogamocs]

Well, let me take that back....if you're in a full-scholly conference, it wouldn't surprise me if you got in regardless of affiliation. The thing is that the weak conference teams like the Big South is they average member has a hard time getting 7 total wins let alone 7 D1 wins

I doubt a 7 win OVC or Southland team would get in as an at-large this year.

[chattanoogamocs]

Right now, Furman, Elon, The Citadel, Chattanooga, and Samford all have a chance at getting in behind App, Wofford, and GSU....but they all need to win out against at least FCS competition and I don't see Elon, Furman, or the Citadel making it for sure. Samford could be out this week as well....we'll have a better projection after this week

One less after this week for sure (Elon or Chattanooga)...and, of course, the Citadel would have to beat South Carolina to get to 7 wins.

[Reign of Terrier]

One less after this week for sure (Elon or Chattanooga)...and, of course, the Citadel would have to beat South Carolina to get to 7 wins.

exactly...and if Furman loses this week they'd have to beat Florida later this year....not happening. If I was a betting person, I'd say Chatty or Samford would get that fourth spot if available

[dgtw]

How many teams had seven DI wins that didn't make the playoffs?

[UNH Fanboi]

How many teams had seven DI wins that didn't make the playoffs?

A lot of teams from the weaker conferences have not gotten in with 7 D1 wins. It's more rare for teams from the CAA, SoCon, MVFC and Big Sky, but it has happened: UNI in 2009, W&M in 2008 and Villanova in 2007 come to mind. Post-expansion, I don't see it happening very much.

[Squealofthepig]

A lot of teams from the weaker conferences have not gotten in with 7 D1 wins. It's more rare for teams from the CAA, SoCon, MVFC and Big Sky, but it has happened: UNI in 2009, W&M in 2008 and Villanova in 2007 come to mind. Post-expansion, I don't see it happening very much.

I think this is the key - seven D1 wins in the expanded pool is hard for the selection committee to disregard in the 20-team format. In the 16-team format, I think it's possible - but I would caveat that, even with an expanded 20-team league, it does matter how many other teams in power conferences get to seven D1 wins. How would a seven win Furman stack up against a seven-win Richmond, or W&M? or UNI? Or EWU? I think it's a difficult question that only time will ultimately answer.

[CID1990]

exactly...and if Furman loses this week they'd have to beat Florida later this year....not happening. If I was a betting person, I'd say Chatty or Samford would get that fourth spot if available

Oh, how soon we forget the term "getting Woffed".

I don't see a 4th SoCon team in the playoffs, pretty much regardless of what happens the rest of the season. It will be Wofford, GSU, and the winner of the ASU-Samford game.

[chattanoogamocs]

Oh, how soon we forget the term "getting Woffed".

I don't see a 4th SoCon team in the playoffs, pretty much regardless of what happens the rest of the season. It will be Wofford, GSU, and the winner of the ASU-Samford game.

I don't think anyone, especially those in the SoCon, have forgotten what it is like to get woffed.

But, if I am making the case for Chattanooga, IF they got to 7-4 (big IF, it could all be moot point in a matter of 36 hours if they can't get past Elon)

...they would more than likely have the following pedigree:

Top 5 toughest schedule in the country (4 ranked teams, JSU, ASU, GSU, Wofford...all in the top 10 when they played...plus Nebraska)
Two top 10 wins (JSU and Wofford, 2-2 versus the top 10)
GPI that would be no worse than top 15
Two top 10 losses on the road by a combined 3 points.

The SoCon is currently the top ranked conference in FCS, that overall strength necessary to attain that ranking means that a 4th team has to have a better than average chance of making it (when the CAA has been the #1 ranked conference, they have gotten 4)

[asumike83]

There is no doubt that UT-C gets in if they win out. Zero. However, it is a tall task.

GSU and Wofford are pretty much locks at this point. If ASU wins this weekend, they will have one foot in the door as well. If Samford beats ASU, they will put themselves in a good position and ASU could not afford to lose more than once down the stretch.

[SpeedkingATL]

Some of the SoCon teams hurt their chances by scheduling Division II teams which is hard to explain in many cases. At least App gets to count wins over SavSt and NC A&T (and they might need them).

[Go Apps]

Playoff Path (took out any wins vs non division 1 schools)

ASU - 4-2 - Samford, GSU, at Furman, WCU, at Elon (needs 3 wins and they are a lock)

GSU - 5-0 - Presby, at ASU, Citadel, at Wofford, at Alabama (needs 2 more wins - I think 4 losses to end season is bad)

Woff - 4-1 - at Furman, Elon, at WCU, GSU, at UTC (needs 2 more wins and they are a lock)

UTC - 3-4 - at Elon, Furman, at Samford, Wofford (must win out possible but if they do they are in due to schedule)

Furman - 3-3 - Wofford, at UTC, ASU, Elon, at Florida (needs 4 more wins and they are in - tough task)

Samford - 3-2 - at ASU, WCU, UTC, at Citadel, at Auburn (needs 3 to 4 wins - doable)

Elon 3-3 - UTC, at Wofford, at Furman, ASU - (needs to win out but I still don't think they make it)

Citadel 2-4 - at WCU, VMI, at GSU, Samford, at South Carolina - (must win out if they do they are in)

WCU - officially eliminated

Tale of the Tape

Wofford - finishes w/ 1 or 2 losses - IN
GSU - finishes w/ 1 to 3 losses - IN
ASU - finishes w/ 2 to 4 losses - IN

Samford - finishes w/ 3 to 4 losses - ASU is a must win or there are eliminated

(** THE ASU/SAMFORD WINNER APPEARS TO BE HEADED TO THE PLAYOFFS, IF ASU LOSES THEY MAY HAVE TO BEAT GSU TO GET IN - THIS IS A MONSTER GAME FOR EVERYBODY)

NOW IF ASU HAS 4 LOSSES - I CANNOT SEE THE COMMITTEE LEAVING THAT MONEY ON THE TABLE EVEN IF THEY TAKE SAMFORD - THE SOCON WILL NEED LOSSES AROUND THE COUNTRY TO SNEAK IN A FOURTH TEAM BUT POSSIBLE


Elon - no way too many big games upcoming Eliminated
UTC - must win out - see them losing once more - Eliminated
Citadel - no way - see them losing again - Eliminated
Furman - see two more losses - Eliminated

[alvinkayak6]

The Citadel vs. Connor Shaw and no Marcus Lattimore. I was originally going to laugh at this one....maybe only 14-7 loss now. :)

[FurmanWins!!]

NCAA is investigating Woffy QB Mitch Allen for sexual assault charges filed by a Spartanburg stripper:

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_O53ew12as-E/R2qSlcsvGGI/AAAAAAAAAUw/1XbVcMR6vIw/s400/fat_stripper_350.jpg

[FurmanWins!!]

Woffy's gameplan against FU (Terrier Style):


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFUmMbS5MLY

[jmufan999]

I agree that UTC is in with 4 wins unless App State is also 7-4. If that's the case, UTC would be left out because there will be plenty of other 7-4 teams to choose from.

[Saint3333]

Right now, Furman, Elon, The Citadel, Chattanooga, and Samford all have a chance at getting in behind App, Wofford, and GSU....but they all need to win out against at least FCS competition and I don't see Elon, Furman, or the Citadel making it for sure. Samford could be out this week as well....we'll have a better projection after this week

ASU isn't a lock yet, this weekend will be very big in deciding whether ASU makes the playoffs.

[Reign of Terrier]

ASU will get in at 7-4. As will chattanooga. Samford needs to be 8-3 to get in

[Go Apps]

ASU isn't a lock yet, this weekend will be very big in deciding whether ASU makes the playoffs.

Yes this game is turning out to be very big game - I am worried not sure which ASU team will show up - hopefully they found their offense last week - if so they may not lose again during the regular season - if not they will lose 3 more...

[Pitz]

There would have to be some creative results for a 7 D-I win school from the CAA, SoCon, Big Sky, or MVFC to get snubbed from the tournament.

[Fear the Bird]

While on topic of "Power Conferences" here is how CAA tale of the tape stacks up:

1. Maine (5-1, 3-0) Needs to win 2 of: @ Richmond, @ Nova, Towson, UMass, @ New Hampshire
2. Towson (5-1, 3-0) Needs to win 2 of: @ W&M, Delaware, @ Maine, New Hampshire, @ Rhode Island
3. James Madison (5-2, 3-1) Needs to win 2 of: @ ODU, @ New Hampshire, Rhode Island, @ UMass
4. New Hampshire (4-2, 2-1) Needs to win 3 of: @ Umass, Rhode Island, James Madison, @ Towson, Maine
5. Delaware (4-3, 2-2) Need to win all 4 (West Chester D2): @ Rhode Island, @ Towson, Richmond, @ Nova
6. Old Dominion (5-2, 2-2) Need to win 2 of: @ Nova, James Madison, Richmond, @ W&M
7. William & Mary (4-3, 2-2) Need to win all 4 (New Haven D2): Towson, @ Rhode Island, Old Dominion, @ Richmond
8. Richmond (3-3, 0-3) Need to win 4 of: Maine, UMass, @ ODU, @ Delaware, W&M
9. Rhode Island (1-5, 0-3) Eliminated
10. Villanova (1-6, 0-4) Eliminated
11. Massachussets (4-2, 2-1) Not Eligible

[chattanoogamocs]

Elon has been eliminated.

[chattownmocs]

I agree that UTC is in with 4 wins unless App State is also 7-4. If that's the case, UTC would be left out because there will be plenty of other 7-4 teams to choose from.

There will be no 7-4 team with as good a resume.

[Nova09]

Elon and WCU both out
Assuming Citadel and Samford lose to SEC schools, both out.

I think UTC beats Furman, so assuming Florida beats Furman, FU out.

I think GSU will beat Wofford, although that game really could go in any direction, but based on my prediction we could have UTC-Wofford as a play-in game the last week of the season.

Conclusion: 3 SoCon playoff teams

[chattanoogamocs]

There will be no 7-4 team with as good a resume.

Agreed...Mocs have currently played the 4th toughest schedule in FCS. Someone is going to have a heck of resume to beat that.