Playoff Eligible Teams

[PantherRob82]

Someone suggested it, so hear it is, conference by conference (in order of conference standings). I am sure I will make mistakes, so help me clean it up.

76 teams can reach 7 D-I wins or win an auto bid.

I only see 24-29 with a legit chance at this point.

Big Sky(6):
Montana State (5 DI wins)
Montana (5 DI wins, 1 sub D-I opponent left)
Weber State (3 D-I wins)
Eastern Washington (3 D-I wins)
Portland State (Possibly alive to win autobid in some crazy situation? Cannot get 7 D-I wins)
Sac State (3 D-I wins)

Big South(4):
Liberty (3 D-I wins)
Stony Brook (2 D-I wins)
Coastal Carolina (3 D-I wins)
Presbyterian (has to win autobid)

CAA(8):
Maine (5 D-I wins)
Towson (5 D-I wins)
James Madison (5 D-I wins)
New Hampshire (4 D-I wins)
Old Dominion (5 D-I wins)
William and Mary (3 D-I wins)
Richmond (3 D-I wins)

Great West(3):
Cal Poly (2 D-I wins, is South Alabama a counter?)
UC-Davis (2 D-I wins)
Southern Utah (3 D-I wins)

MEAC(8):
Norfolk State (5 D-I wins)
NC A&T (3 D-I wins)
Morgan State (4 D-I wins)
SC State (4 D-I wins)
Howard (Crazy autobid situation?)
Florida A&M (3 D-I wins)
Bethune Cookman (2 D-I wins)
Hampton (3 D-I wins)

MVFC(7):
Northern Iowa (5 D-I wins)
North Dakota State (6 D-I wins)
Indiana State (5 D-I wins)
Youngstown St (3 D-I wins)
Illinois State (4 D-I wins)
Western Illinois (2 D-I wins)
Southern Illinois (2 D-I wins)

NEC(6):
Albany (4 D-I wins)
Duquesne (5 D-I wins)
Sacred Heart (4 D-I wins)
Monmouth (3 D-I wins)
Robert Morris (2 D-I wins)
Bryant(3 D-I wins)

OVC(7):
Jacksonville St (5 D-I wins)
Tenn Tech (3 D-I wins)
Eastern Kentucky (3 D-I wins)
Tenn Martin (2 D-I wins)
Tenn State (3 D-I wins)
Murray State (4 D-I wins)
Austin Peay (2 D-I wins, needs autobid)

Patriot(6):
Lehigh (6 D-I wins)
Holy Cross (3 D-I wins)
Georgetown (5 D-I wins)
Bucknell (4 D-I wins)
Colgate (4 D-I wins)
Lafayette (2 D-I wins)

Pioneer(5): (no one can get bridge bid, only 3 schools scheduled for the opportunity)
San Diego (4 D-I wins)
Jacksonville (5 D-I wins)
Drake (3 D-I wins)
Dayton (3 D-I wins)
Campbell (2 D-I wins)

Southern(8):
Georgia Southern (5 D-I wins)
Wofford (4 D-I wins)
App St (4 D-I wins)
Samford (3 D-I wins)
Elon (3D-I wins)
Furman (3 D-I wins)
Chattanooga (3 D-I wins)
Citadel (2 D-I wins)

Southland(4):
Sam Houston St (6 D-I wins)
Central Arkansas (3 D-I wins)
Northwestern St (3 D-I wins)
McNeese St (2 D-I wins)

SWAC(5): (**Two teams will be in conf championship game, so at-large would be 3rd place team)
Alabama State (6 D-I wins)**
Jackson State (5 D-I wins)
Alabama A&M (4 D-I wins)
Prairie View A&M (4 D-I wins)**
Arkansas Pine Bluff (3 D-I wins)

[PantherRob82]

My prediction after Oct 15th games:

Big Sky gets 3:
Montana State
Montana
EWU/Weber

Big South gets only autobid:
Liberty

CAA gets 5...maybe more:
Maine (5 D-I wins)
Towson (5 D-I wins)
James Madison (5 D-I wins)
New Hampshire (4 D-I wins)
Delaware (3 D-I wins)

Great West...0

MEAC gets autobid:
Norfolk State

MVFC gets 3:
Northern Iowa
North Dakota State
Indiana State

NEC gets autobid only:
Albany

OVC gets autobid only:
Jax State (they are eligible this year...right?)

Patriot gets autobid only:
Lehigh

Pioneer gets 0

Southern gets 3:
Georgia Southern
Wofford
App St


Southland gets autobid only:
Sam Houston St

SWAC gets 0

[Tribe4SF]

Delaware only has 3 D-I wins. They played West Chester. They're in the same boat as W&M. Must win out to make it.

Towson has 5 D-I wins, not 4.

[UNH Fanboi]

food for thought: Could a 9-2 North Dakota with 6 D1 wins and no FCS losses get in?

[semobison]

food for thought: Could a 9-2 North Dakota with 6 D1 wins and no FCS losses get in?

No, they are not yet eligible!

[darell1976]

food for thought: Could a 9-2 North Dakota with 6 D1 wins and no FCS losses get in?

Both North and South Dakota are not eligible until next season.

[PantherRob82]

Delaware only has 3 D-I wins. They played West Chester. They're in the same boat as W&M. Must win out to make it.

Towson has 5 D-I wins, not 4.

Thanks. I'm in the middle of finals and was on an all nighter. Needed a distraction and my lack of sleep and brain power for anything but spinal anatomy showed.

[GATA_Eagles]

I'd like to see 4 SoCon teams get in...but it doesn't look bright.
Chatty has to win the rest of their games and they've yet to face Wofford.
Samford has to win the rest of their games as well, but they still have App State and Chatty left.
Furman...doesn't have much hope - they still have Wofford, App State, and Chatty left on the schedule...ouch.

[Professor Chaos]

food for thought: Could a 9-2 North Dakota with 6 D1 wins and no FCS losses get in?
Hypothetically, if they were eligible, I'd say yes. They would've needed some help from the bubble CAA/Big Sky teams stumbling but that resume would include wins over USD (provided last weeks performance doesn't become a trend), Cal Poly, and UC Davis. I would've said the same thing about a hypothetically playoff eligible 9-2 USD with pretty much the same resume plus a win over EWU until they lost last week.

[dgtw]

What is the birdge bid referring to with the Pioneer League?

Jax State is playoff eligible. South Alabama would count, I think, as they are a FCS independent transtioning to FBS, but I don't think they can be in the playoffs.

Why are the Dakotas not eiligible?

[FargoBison]

What is the birdge bid referring to with the Pioneer League?

Jax State is playoff eligible. South Alabama would count, I think, as they are a FCS independent transtioning to FBS, but I don't think they can be in the playoffs.

Why are the Dakotas not eiligible?

UND and USD are still in transition from DII. It is a four year wait to be eligible and this is year four for them.

[Twentysix]

What is the birdge bid referring to with the Pioneer League?

Jax State is playoff eligible. South Alabama would count, I think, as they are a FCS independent transtioning to FBS, but I don't think they can be in the playoffs.

Why are the Dakotas not eiligible?

UND USD are in transition making them ineligible for post season play, Arent you a sioux fan?

The bridge bid is a special thing that a conference who applied for an AQ bid and were denied are eligible for.

An albany poster detailed it a few weeks ago.

Its something like 8 Division I wins, 2 or 3 of those have to be over teams from an auto qualifier conference, and the PFL team has to average a certain ranking between the TSN and coaches poll in the final week of the season.

Basicly no PFL team has ever hit the requirements, which is why 10-1 or 11-0 PFL teams dont get an atlarge bid.

AQ=Auto qualifier

I believe 2 or 3 of the PFL schools had schedules that could have potentially make the bridge bid, but none of them have pulled it off.


http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/294/jacksonville-dolphins that would be a team that scheduled in an attempt for the playoffs, but they lost to many of the games against AQ conferences.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/2181/drake-bulldogs example of a schedule where the team did not attempt the bridge bid.

some other posters can probably give you more accruate information.

[danefan]

UND USD are in transition making them ineligible for post season play, Arent you a sioux fan?

The bridge bid is a special thing that a conference who applied for an AQ bid and were denied are eligible for.

An albany poster detailed it a few weeks ago.

Its something like 8 Division I wins, 2 or 3 of those have to be over teams from an auto qualifier conference, and the PFL team has to average a certain ranking between the TSN and coaches poll in the final week of the season.

Basicly no PFL team has ever hit the requirements, which is why 10-1 or 11-0 PFL teams dont get an atlarge bid.

AQ=Auto qualifier

I believe 2 or 3 of the PFL schools had schedules that could have potentially make the bridge bid, but none of them have pulled it off.


http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/294/jacksonville-dolphins that would be a team that scheduled in an attempt for the playoffs, but they lost to many of the games against AQ conferences.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/2181/drake-bulldogs example of a schedule where the team did not attempt the bridge bid.

some other posters can probably give you more accruate information.

Pretty much right on point:



Bridge AQ for the PFL only

1. 8 DI wins
2. 2 wins over teams from AQ leagues
3. Average ranking of 20 or higher in (a) the TSN poll, (b) the Coaches Poll and (c) a modified GPI using only Massey, Ashburn, Self, Laz and Wolfe.



No PFL team has 2 wins over teams from AQ leagues so the rest of the analysis is a moot point.

They could still qualify for an at-large, but based on history, I think its fair to say its very unlikely to happen.

[darell1976]

What is the birdge bid referring to with the Pioneer League?

Jax State is playoff eligible. South Alabama would count, I think, as they are a FCS independent transtioning to FBS, but I don't think they can be in the playoffs.

Why are the Dakotas not eiligible?

Our transition ends on July 1, 2012 for both North and South Dakota. We can only compete for conference titles, except basketball has a special tournament. UND was invited to the CIT tournament last season, its for teams not in The Dance, or the NIT(and open to conference winners that have no AQ...The Great West is not an AQ conference). UND lost the first round to Air Force.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Here's a major curveball to throw your way: Would an 8-3 Georgetown team make it as an at-large, if Lehigh manages to run the table?

They would have no marquee wins, but 8 D-I wins.

Holy Cross and Colgate could still get to 8 D-I wins if they sweep the rest of their games, though they'd have to beat Lehigh to do it. Also, Bucknell could get to 8-3 if they sweep the rest of their schedule, and they've already lost to Lehigh.

[FargoBison]

Here's a major curveball to throw your way: Would an 8-3 Georgetown team make it as an at-large, if Lehigh manages to run the table?

They would have no marquee wins, but 8 D-I wins.

Holy Cross and Colgate could still get to 8 D-I wins if they sweep the rest of their games, though they'd have to beat Lehigh to do it. Also, Bucknell could get to 8-3 if they sweep the rest of their schedule, and they've already lost to Lehigh.

I'd say it is unlikely, Liberty had 8 DI wins last year and a win vs an FBS but didn't make it. There would need to be no MVFC/SoCon/Big Sky/CAA 7 win teams left.

[Twentysix]

Here's a major curveball to throw your way: Would an 8-3 Georgetown team make it as an at-large, if Lehigh manages to run the table?

They would have no marquee wins, but 8 D-I wins.

Holy Cross and Colgate could still get to 8 D-I wins if they sweep the rest of their games, though they'd have to beat Lehigh to do it. Also, Bucknell could get to 8-3 if they sweep the rest of their schedule, and they've already lost to Lehigh.

A second bid out of the PL probably depends more on what teams in other conferences do, rather than what the second PL team does. If two schools had a track record like lehigh maybe they would control their own destiny.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

A second bid out of the PL probably depends more on what teams in other conferences do, rather than what the second PL team does. If two schools had a track record like lehigh maybe they would control their own destiny.

I think you might be right, but it means you could have, say, an Old Dominion team with 4 conference losses and no wins against playoff teams in the mix for an at-large.

I think the PL's best chance at an at-large is a whole lot o' mess with the CAA - Delaware and W&M at 7-4, and Richmond and ODU at 6-5. I think Patriot League fans ought to be paying attention to the Villanova/ODU game this weekend, for if the Wildcats could upset the Monarchs, I think that above scenario is more likely.

[danefan]

Here's a major curveball to throw your way: Would an 8-3 Georgetown team make it as an at-large, if Lehigh manages to run the table?

They would have no marquee wins, but 8 D-I wins.

Holy Cross and Colgate could still get to 8 D-I wins if they sweep the rest of their games, though they'd have to beat Lehigh to do it. Also, Bucknell could get to 8-3 if they sweep the rest of their schedule, and they've already lost to Lehigh.

I think there's a better chance of the PFL champion getting a bid than Georgetown.

They'd have two very bad losses - Bucknell and Yale - and no good wins at all.. No way to get over that I don't think.

Now - if Georgetown can somehow beat Lehigh and is at 9-2 - I think its on the table for discussion.

[Twentysix]

Thats harsh danefan.

[danefan]

Thats harsh danefan.

Trufe hurts

[dgtw]

Thanks for explaining the bridge thing.

26-I'm not a Souix fan, I live in Alabama and support my wife's alma mater Jax State in FCS matters.

[danefan]

Compare these two hypothetical resumes:

Sep 3 - L at Bucknell, 26-27
Sep 10 - W at Dayton, 22-13
Sep 17 - W vs. Valparaiso, 49-14
Sep 24 - W at St Francis-PA, 41-14
Oct 1 - W vs. Bryant, 31-28
Oct 8 - L at Albany, 10-38
Oct 15 - W vs. Cent Conn St, 28-21
Oct 22 - W vs. Wagner, 12:00 PM
Oct 29 - W at Monmouth, 1:00 PM
Nov 5 - Open
Nov 12 - W at Sacred Heart, 12:00 PM
Nov 19 - W vs. Robert Morris, 12:00 PM


Sep 3 - W vs. Davidson, 40-16
Sep 10 - W vs. Lafayette, 14-13
Sep 17 - L at Yale, 27-37
Sep 24 - W at Marist, 52-28
Oct 1 - L at Bucknell, 18-35
Oct 8 - W at Wagner, 24-10
Oct 15 - W at Howard, 21-3
Oct 22 - W vs. Colgate, 2:00 PM
Oct 29 - W at Holy Cross, 1:00 PM
Nov 5 - W vs. Fordham, 1:00 PM
Nov 12 - L at Lehigh, 12:30 PM

Neither is an At-large worthy resume, IMO.

[Reign of Terrier]

I think we'll have a clearer picture of who is going to the playoffs starting next week and a very accurate picture in 2 or 3 weeks. Right now there are a lot of teams that can get in if they win out, but if they lose one more game they'll be eliminated. For the Socon, Western has already been eliminated but Elon, The Citadel, Furman, and either Chattanooga or Samford will likely drop a game in the next 2 or 3 weeks and become ineligible. I believe the same can be said across the FCS, I just follow the socon closely and can speak for them.

[Twentysix]

Thanks for explaining the bridge thing.

26-I'm not a Souix fan, I live in Alabama and support my wife's alma mater Jax State in FCS matters.

Ah I see. No idea why i thought you were a sioux fan. Maybe someone else has a similar name? lol idk

[Apphole]

My prediction after Oct 15th games:

Big Sky gets 3:
Montana State
Montana
EWU/Weber

Big South gets only autobid:
Liberty

CAA gets 5...maybe more:
Maine (5 D-I wins)
Towson (5 D-I wins)
James Madison (5 D-I wins)
New Hampshire (4 D-I wins)
Delaware (3 D-I wins)

Great West...0

MEAC gets autobid:
Norfolk State

MVFC gets 3:
Northern Iowa
North Dakota State
Indiana State

NEC gets autobid only:
Albany

OVC gets autobid only:
Jax State (they are eligible this year...right?)

Patriot gets autobid only:
Lehigh

Pioneer gets 0

Southern gets 3:
Georgia Southern
Wofford
App St


Southland gets autobid only:
Sam Houston St

SWAC gets 0

There's no way the CAA gets 5 teams and the SoCon gets 3. I know Chatty pretty much screwed themselves out of the playoffs already, but they still have an outside chance as well as Sammy and maybe Furman. The CAA is weaksauce this year. I think it's pretty safe to say that, at least this year, the Southern Conference is the strongest conference in the FCS. If we only get 3 teams in, it's because there are so many good teams its a wash.

[JmuSkinsfan]

There's no way the CAA gets 5 teams and the SoCon gets 3. I know Chatty pretty much screwed themselves out of the playoffs already, but they still have an outside chance as well as Sammy and maybe Furman. The CAA is weaksauce this year. I think it's pretty safe to say that, at least this year, the Southern Conference is the strongest conference in the FCS. If we only get 3 teams in, it's because there are so many good teams its a wash.

If everyone wins the games they're supposed to win, CAA should have 5. I think 4 teams will finish 8-3 or better (lock for playoffs) with a 7-4 team ... if that 7-4 team is UD/WM, then CAA gets 4 ... if that 7-4 team is ... say, UR, they get 5.

Here is how I see it finishing out in the CAA:

Just went through each CAA team's remaining schedule and came up with the following. I literally went through and went with my "gut" first instinct on each pick, with a couple surprises:

JMU: 9-2 (7-1) - win out
Maine: 8-3 (6-2) - UR (L), Nova (W), Towson (W), Umass (W), UNH (L)
Towson: 8-3 (6-2) - WM (L), Delaware (W), Maine (L), UNH (W), URI (W)
WM: 8-3 (6-2) - win out
UR: 7-4 (4-4) - Maine (W), Umass (W), ODU (W), UD (W), WM (L)
UNH: 6-5 (4-4) - UMass (L), URI (W), JMU (L), Towson (L), Maine (W)
UD: 6-5 (4-4) - URI (W), Towson (L), Richmond (L), Villanova (W)
Umass: 6-5 (4-4) - UNH (W), UR (L), Villanova (W), Maine (L), JMU (L)
ODU: 6-5 (3-5) - Villanova (W), JMU (L), Richmond (L), WM (L)
URI: 1-10 (0-8) - lose out
Villanova: 1-10 (0-8) - lose out

Of course, one more win by UNH and they're in over UR ... and if Villanova or URI decide to win a game and play spoiler (always possible), we could see a WM/UR out of the playoffs.

UNH has the toughest road ahead ... and I really don't think they're all that good (said it before this weekend's results, just not sold on them) ... I was generous and gave them a win over Maine as their "upset" but I wouldn't be surprised if they just beat URI the rest of the way out. Also, Umass is going to play spoiler ... so they could beat JMU/Maine/UR and knock them down a win or out of the playoffs (in Richmond's case) ... I'm riding the hot hand with UR/WM ... I think both teams had some down play but aren't as bad as thought before this weekend. I think UR has been cursed by playing UNH/JMU/Towson to start their conference play and think they'll turn it around late ... Corp/Grayson are too good to let them lose many games.

[Reign of Terrier]

There's no way the CAA gets 5 teams and the SoCon gets 3. I know Chatty pretty much screwed themselves out of the playoffs already, but they still have an outside chance as well as Sammy and maybe Furman. The CAA is weaksauce this year. I think it's pretty safe to say that, at least this year, the Southern Conference is the strongest conference in the FCS. If we only get 3 teams in, it's because there are so many good teams its a wash.

no, it would be because the Socon schedules weaker OOC (as opposed to beating a Patriot or Pioneer league team) and won't get 7 D1 wins. Samford would be in my playoff bracket for sure if they didn't play Stillman and Chattanooga would be a lock if they didn't lose to El Cid.

[Reign of Terrier]

I think the CAA has 3 in for sure in Towson, JMU, and Maine.....the rest we'll know in a couple weeks

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Or it could happen like this:



JMU: 9-2 (7-1) - win out
Maine: 9-2 (7-1) - UR (W), Nova (W), Towson (W), Umass (W), UNH (L)
Towson: 9-2 (6-2) - WM (W), Delaware (W), Maine (L), UNH (W), URI (W)
WM: 7-4 (5-3) - lose to Towson
UR: 6-5 (3-5) - Maine (L), Umass (W), ODU (W), UD (W), WM (L)
UNH: 6-5 (4-4) - UMass (L), URI (W), JMU (L), Towson (L), Maine (W)
UD: 6-5 (4-4) - URI (W), Towson (L), Richmond (L), Villanova (W)
Umass: 6-5 (4-4) - UNH (W), UR (L), Villanova (W), Maine (L), JMU (L)
ODU: 6-5 (3-5) - Villanova (W), JMU (L), Richmond (L), WM (L)
URI: 1-10 (0-8) - lose out
Villanova: 1-10 (0-8) - lose out

Switch two games - Maine beating Richmond, Towson beating W&M, and you only have TWO CAA at-large teams. And Maine and Towson should currently be ranked higher than Richmond and W&M.

(Note: W&M at 7-4 would be in jeopardy of being playoff ineligible since they'd only have six D-I wins.)

[JmuSkinsfan]

Or it could happen like this:

Switch two games - Maine beating Richmond, Towson beating W&M, and you only have TWO CAA at-large teams. And Maine and Towson should currently be ranked higher than Richmond and W&M.

(Note: W&M at 7-4 would be in jeopardy of being playoff ineligible since they'd only have six D-I wins.)

I could absolutely see that as well. So you'd have:

Maine: 9-2 (7-1)
JMU: 9-2 (7-1)
Towson: 9-2 (7-1)

Maine would get the auto-big (I think) based on their head-to-head wins over JMU/Towson ... but that's a tough seeding situation.

[Reign of Terrier]

Looking at the CAA a little more closely, I think it's safe to say that Towson, Maine, and JMU will likely make the playoffs whereas New Hampshire will have a hard time making the playoffs with their last 3 games being the toughest stretch out of any, Delaware, Richmond, and W&M can't afford to lose a game, and ODU actually looks like they have the best chance to make the playoffs. So I'd bet that UNH and ODU make the playoffs, but anything could happen. The Socon is the best conference IMO this year, but the CAA has the most parity.

[NDB]

The Socon is the best conference IMO this year, but the CAA has the most parity.


I second this!

[bobcathpdevil56]

I have a question. If Portland state wins out they will be 8-3, with 6 wins in FBS and one loss to TCU. With their only other two loses being to the Montana Schools and wins over EWU/Weber do they get in with that resume? Or is two wins over NAIA and D.III (Southern Oregon and Willamette) going to keep them out?

[FargoBison]

No, they are out.

[bjtheflamesfan]

Portland State is gonna be in that pool of about 6-10 teams (if things hold station) to be considered for the last 4 spots. Do I think they are for sure out? Not really...the committee would be hard pressed to put 4 Big Sky teams (much less three)

[URMite]

Looking at the CAA a little more closely, I think it's safe to say that Towson, Maine, and JMU will likely make the playoffs whereas New Hampshire will have a hard time making the playoffs with their last 3 games being the toughest stretch out of any, Delaware, Richmond, and W&M can't afford to lose a game, and ODU actually looks like they have the best chance to make the playoffs. So I'd bet that UNH and ODU make the playoffs, but anything could happen. The Socon is the best conference IMO this year, but the CAA has the most parity.

Not quite the way I see it.

Asuming each needs to get to 7-4.

Maine & Towson can lose 3 and I don't see either losing more than that.
JMU (home - URI and @UMass, ODU, UNH) & UNH (Home - URI, JMU, Maine and @UMass[sort of], Towson) can lose 2. I can see JMU losing one of the away games but not all three. Hard to see UNH going 1-3 not counting URI but it is possible.
UR (Home - Maine, UMass, W&M and @ODU, UD) can lose 1. Will they be healthy enough against Maine? Otherwise could win or lose any of these, so losing two is not a stretch.

Assuming all three need to be 8-3.

ODU (@Nova then JMU, UR and @W&M) can lose 1. Will get consideration at 7-4 but just about last in line.
Delaware and W&M must win out. Both play Towson in the next two weeks as their biggest test.


URI and Villanova can't get to 7 wins and UMass is ineligible.

[bojeta]

.....
Great West(3):
Cal Poly (2 D-I wins, is South Alabama a counter?)
UC-Davis (2 D-I wins)
Southern Utah (3 D-I wins).....


Yes, South Alabama is a DI team and counts toward post season eligibility. Southern Utah, though they could reach 7 DI wins, at 0-3 in conference, will certainly not be considered for post season play. Too bad, because they are actually a really good team.

[FargoBison]

If SUU ran the table they would be in but that isn't really realistic considering their recent play.

[profisme]

I have a question. If Portland state wins out they will be 8-3, with 6 wins in FBS and one loss to TCU. With their only other two loses being to the Montana Schools and wins over EWU/Weber do they get in with that resume? Or is two wins over NAIA and D.III (Southern Oregon and Willamette) going to keep them out?

I would say they are probably out with very little consideration. They essentially scheduled themselves out of contention with more than likely 3 games they knew couldn't count towards helping them get to the playoffs. (I say that because how many people actually would give them a chance against TCU)

[crusader11]

Best way for the Patriot League to get an at-large is if Lehigh is the runner-up. They're in for sure with a 9-2 record, and then the league champ goes in with the auto bid. I could see that happening. November 5th....

[danefan]

Best way for the Patriot League to get an at-large is if Lehigh is the runner-up. They're in for sure with a 9-2 record, and then the league champ goes in with the auto bid. I could see that happening. November 5th....

Agreed.

[bojeta]

I would say they are probably out with very little consideration. They essentially scheduled themselves out of contention with more than likely 3 games they knew couldn't count towards helping them get to the playoffs. (I say that because how many people actually would give them a chance against TCU)

They're in a similar situation to Cal Poly. It's going to be conditional. The other bubble teams in the Big sky would need to lose another game and then I would think they have a good shot at making it. In particular, I think it will be important for Portland State that Cal Poly beats EWU. Otherwise, If EWU finishes with 7 DI wins, being the reigning champs, they would likely get the nod.
Of course..... after thinking about this.... the only way EWU would be in that position is if they first beat Portland State on Oct 29th. Therefore, PSU would be out already.

[profisme]

Any team from the Big Sky that doesn't have at least 7 D-1 wins will not be in the playoffs. That includes EWU (reigning national champ), Montana, Sac St., or Portland St. Also, don't let Player Rep from eGriz read this or else he will bombard you with his football "knowledge".

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

I have a question. If Portland state wins out they will be 8-3, with 6 wins in FBS and one loss to TCU. With their only other two loses being to the Montana Schools and wins over EWU/Weber do they get in with that resume? Or is two wins over NAIA and D.III (Southern Oregon and Willamette) going to keep them out?


Portland State is gonna be in that pool of about 6-10 teams (if things hold station) to be considered for the last 4 spots. Do I think they are for sure out? Not really...the committee would be hard pressed to put 4 Big Sky teams (much less three)

Every year we go through this where people say the seven D-I win threshold is just a guideline. And every year we fail to see a six D-I win selected as an at large regardless of how good those six wins are and how good their home attendance is.

To me last year demonstrated that the seven win guideline will only be breached in the most dire circumstances. When the committee didn't select six D-I win Montana and their cash cow nor JMU with their win over VA Tech, it was crystal clear that the seven D-I win threshold was as good as a rule!