The Conference Homer Vote Test

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I'm not gonna do this every week but I figured I'd give you guys a look see.


Vote By Conference (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At367yhHwedudGxTa3lJX29BT0RDcld1YnhiZEc3O UE&hl=en_US)

[Squealofthepig]

I'm assuming you opened a random ballot from each. Maybe it's confirmation bias on my own part, but I see nothing glaringly homerish in any of those - a good mix of conferences in each, everyone's pretty much voting for the same top couple of teams with just a little bit of shifting around. There's some noise in 20-25, but it passes the sniff test - we're all pretty much still guessing when we get past the top 20 anyway.

[Pard4Life]

Interesting data... I like how Lehigh is 8-9 in every league but the CAA average is 10.

[Squealofthepig]

Interesting data... I like how Lehigh is 8-9 in every league but the CAA average is 10.

Hmm, that brings me back to a methodology question - is this a sample ballot, or the results as if the rankings were pulled just from voters from that conference? I had assumed the former, but it does make more sense for it to be the latter, in which case I may have to take a closer look.

[JmuSkinsfan]

With a quick glance, it looks like CAA is "least" homerish at the top ... maybe an indication that the conference is more balanced this year and fans willing to vote up other top teams until they see reason not to.

But honestly, there doesn't seem to be much of a diff. in the top 10 among the different conferences ... pretty good understanding across the board, it seems.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Hmm, that brings me back to a methodology question - is this a sample ballot, or the results as if the rankings were pulled just from voters from that conference? I had assumed the former, but it does make more sense for it to be the latter, in which case I may have to take a closer look.
The results are the aggregate of all the voters for that conference. I just ran them as their own poll.

[MR. CHICKEN]

16158.....AH SMELL UH RAT......LAST WEEK TOWSON...WAS #22...IN AGS POLL......UH 25 POINT...LOSS TA TERPS....ALBEIT..UH CLOSE FIRST HALF...7-3.....WHO WERE LOOKIN' AHEAD...TA GA. TECH....WAS REWARDED...#19....BAH DUH CAA BRETHERN.......WHO CUT DUH CHEESE.....xconfusedx..........BRAWK!

PS....SOUTHERN & SOUTHLAND....MIZZOU VALLEY....GUILTY...TOO!

[ngineer]

Overall, I think the polls are pretty consistent. I do find it funny that only the CAA had Lehigh at 10. I suspect a few of our 'feathered friends' from down under could not stomach voting while still remembering last year's playoff game. (;-)

[MR. CHICKEN]

NOT GUILTY......HAWK....AH HAD...LEHIGH 8...WHIFF UH BULLET............OWN-LAH STOMACH CHURIN'[email protected] COOP......HENRIETTAH'S.....CHICK 'N-ALA-KING......................AWK!

[PantherRob82]

Looks like the SoCon might the the closest to the actual poll. Very cool. Thanks!

[BisonFan02]

I think if more teams in the FCS would commit to more home/home meetings, more fanbases would be more familar with the other conferences/competiton (Ivy....ya listening?). I would have loved to see GA Southern come up to NDSU because it would have brought more visibility to the Bison (or GA Southern) early. Doing this, I think you would see alot more average fans familiar with (at least somewhat educated) to competing conferences. Just my xtwocentsx

[BisonFan02]

I think if more teams in the FCS would commit to more home/home meetings, more fanbases would be more familar with the other conferences/competiton (Ivy....ya listening?). I would have loved to see GA Southern come up to NDSU because it would have brought more visibility to the Bison (or GA Southern) early. Doing this, I think you would see alot more average fans familiar with (at least somewhat educated) to competing conferences. Just my xtwocentsx

The key is "more"....maybe I should proof read before I hit submit....:D

[McNeese75]

Thanks for doing this

[achrist70]

What I think this shows more than anything is that the top 5 or 6 are very clear at this point and after that it is nothing but a crap shoot. As for UNI being #1 in the MVFC, that isn't that surprising considering people are by nature a bit homerish. I don't vote as UNI seems to underachieve when I do (yes I am superstitious) but I would have Georgia Southern ahead of UNI at this point.

[SpeedkingATL]

Shows that the voters aren't showing a lot of bias and likely have a better handle on the teams at this point that the National Polls IMHO ,especially the Coaches Poll. Well done!

[TexasTerror]

SLC is pretty 'clean'...

SHSU slotted two spots better than AGS Poll while McNeese is the same... I would not call that 'guilty' in the least bit.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

hey to all of you that said thanks you are sure welcome. I don't know if I made myself clear on what I was doing here though. I was not saying that the conference voters are homers. I've always thought that this was sort of intimated by some people in arguments but seeing individual votes over the years there were a very few people that were just blind homers. I wanted to put it to the test and see what the actual outcome was.

I wasn't surprised at all to see that most individuals and even as small groups they take the vote to mean something and do a good job on it.

As a voter you are bound to know your conference teams a little better than those outside and may have them just slightly out of position from others but it's pretty darn close.

Just wanted to test it out and do a random plucking to see how it turned out and it turns out that any claims of conference homer votes are pretty shallow.

[Fear the Bird]

Overall, I think the polls are pretty consistent. I do find it funny that only the CAA had Lehigh at 10. I suspect a few of our 'feathered friends' from down under could not stomach voting while still remembering last year's playoff game. (;-)

Also not guilty, went Lehigh #8, Appy #9, UD #10

[appfan2008]

I still dont see how app deserves to be the number 9 team in the country... every conference had them between 8 and 11... I had them at 25!

[MR. CHICKEN]

I still dont see how app deserves to be the number 9 team in the country... every conference had them between 8 and 11... I had them at 25!

16164.....SOUNDS...LAK UH BAD CASE..UH WOE....ON DUH ROCK........BRAWK/OBAMA!!

[JSUBison]

I still dont see how app deserves to be the number 9 team in the country... every conference had them between 8 and 11... I had them at 25!

App State is benefiting from the same thing Indiana State is suffering from: Name recognition and past history.

[Fear the Bird]

App State is benefiting from the same thing Indiana State is suffering from: Name recognition and past history.

I will play along - which ISU win am I supposed to be excited by? FWIW, I have ASU at 9 and ISU at 14 this week. ISU has a tremendous opportunity to move well inside the top 10 this week though for sure. Maybe I am high on ASU, but I think that's where ISU belongs right now.

[crusader11]

Digging the love shown to Holy Cross from Big Sky voters!

[Fear the Bird]

Digging the love shown to Holy Cross from Big Sky voters!

I kept HC in my top 25 this week...the UMass close loss was a bit devalued this weekend by what ODU did to them, but that Harvard win looks better each week and they gave a top 5-6 team all they could handle

[crusader11]

I kept HC in my top 25 this week...the UMass close loss was a bit devalued this weekend by what ODU did to them, but that Harvard win looks better each week and they gave a top 5-6 team all they could handle

An astute voter you are.

I was really hoping that UMASS would turn into a top 3 team in the CAA, but they don't have much else aside from Hernandez.

If we beat UNH last weekend, I think we are a top 15 team.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Here's the most recent (Week 6, Oct. 8th games) list of votes by conference. Didn't know if I should start a new thread for it but figured it would fit in nicely here.

Voters By Conference:

Big Sky Conference 7
Big South Conference 2
Colonial Athletic Association 23
Great West Conference 7
Independent 1
Ivy League 2
Mid-Eastern Athletic conference 1
Missouri Valley Football Conference 15
Northeast Conference 1
Ohio Valley Conference 2
Patriot League 8
Pioneer Football Conference 0
Southern Conference 12
Southland Conference 3
Southwestern Athletic Conference 1

[SonuvaHenx2]

Here's the most recent (Week 6, Oct. 8th games) list of votes by conference. Didn't know if I should start a new thread for it but figured it would fit in nicely here.

Voters By Conference:

Big Sky Conference 7
Big South Conference 2
Colonial Athletic Association 23
Great West Conference 7
Independent 1
Ivy League 2
Mid-Eastern Athletic conference 1
Missouri Valley Football Conference 15
Northeast Conference 1
Ohio Valley Conference 2
Patriot League 8
Pioneer Football Conference 0
Southern Conference 12
Southland Conference 3
Southwestern Athletic Conference 1

Not at all surprised by these 3 having the most voters, but...
Very surprised at the lack of SOCON voters.
With all the SOCON regulars, you'd think a few more than 12 of them would vote.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Not at all surprised by these 3 having the most voters, but...
Very surprised at the lack of SOCON voters.
With all the SOCON regulars, you'd think a few more than 12 of them would vote.

Yeah, that is kinda surprising but the lack of BSC voters catches my eye first. But considering the Socon presence on the board in comparison I guess that is more of a head scratcher. There are a whole lot signed up that went ineligible so the reason may be that they are just slow starters and missed the boat.

We were talking about running an "amnesty" this next vote for those that fell through the cracks so maybe we'll do that and see if we can kick start the SoCon & BSC voters that were left behind.

[BisonFan02]

Yeah, that is kinda surprising but the lack of BSC voters catches my eye first. But considering the Socon presence on the board in comparison I guess that is more of a head scratcher. There are a whole lot signed up that went ineligible so the reason may be that they are just slow starters and missed the boat.

We were talking about running an "amnesty" this next vote for those that fell through the cracks so maybe we'll do that and see if we can kick start the SoCon & BSC voters that were left behind.

Pardon the dumb newbie question (especially since I'm sure it's posted somewhere), but what/where are the requirements for voting in the AGS poll?

[chattanoogamocs]

Not at all surprised by these 3 having the most voters, but...
Very surprised at the lack of SOCON voters.
With all the SOCON regulars, you'd think a few more than 12 of them would vote.

I have been eligible to vote for about 6 years, but never have...mainly because I don't form a clear opinion until about week 4. I don't know if the rules are the same now, but I seem to remember back in the day, you could only miss one or two in a season or you were dropped...and I really didn't like the idea of a pre-season poll before practice even started.

Now don't get me wrong, I am not complaining about the set-up...it's cool with me however they want to do it. Just doesn't work out for me. I know when I had asked some other long time SoCon posters in the past, their attitude was similar.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Pardon the dumb newbie question (especially since I'm sure it's posted somewhere), but what/where are the requirements for voting in the AGS poll?

If you look in the Poll forum I think it's stickied in there but in short you need 100 posts and be here for one year. Both of those rules have been waived (separately) for some posters that have requested admission to the poll. It helps a lot if you are active in the poll discussions and on the FCS Discussion board.

[BisonFan02]

If you look in the Poll forum I think it's stickied in there but in short you need 100 posts and be here for one year. Both of those rules have been waived (separately) for some posters that have requested admission to the poll. It helps a lot if you are active in the poll discussions and on the FCS Discussion board.

Sounds good. The 100 posts won't be a problem, but maybe I'll be able to get a pass on having to be here a year come time next season (joined in September).

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I have been eligible to vote for about 6 years, but never have...mainly because I don't form a clear opinion until about week 4. I don't know if the rules are the same now, but I seem to remember back in the day, you could only miss one or two in a season or you were dropped...and I really didn't like the idea of a pre-season poll before practice even started.

Now don't get me wrong, I am not complaining about the set-up...it's cool with me however they want to do it. Just doesn't work out for me. I know when I had asked some other long time SoCon posters in the past, their attitude was similar.

That's how I've always felt as well. There are merits to both systems but it just didn't work for me as far as the preseason & early season went.

But, if nobody did it there would be much, much less to argue about and even talk about to learn more about the teams involved.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Sounds good. The 100 posts won't be a problem, but maybe I'll be able to get a pass on having to be here a year come time next season (joined in September).

I got a feeling you'll be fine in that regard.xthumbsupx

[chattownmocs]

Well to be honest the only true way to know, would be to show how a conference voted compared to how all the other conferences voted excluding them, not including them.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Well to be honest the only true way to know, would be to show how a conference voted compared to how all the other conferences voted excluding them, not including them.

Chattown, you can look at each stand alone and see how they voted in comparison to each other. That is as refined as it got just to see if any conference was specifically homering for their teams.

If I do this again though I'll run it that way too just to see what it would be like without that conference involved.xthumbsupx

[MR. CHICKEN]

16181.....WHAA'S...DUH PROBLEM....xconfusedx.....OURAH POLL FAIRLY...CLOSE WHIFF MOS' NATIONAL POLLS...OUT-DERE.....SO WHERE'S DUH HOMERISM....xconfusedx....OUTSIDE DUH TOP 5....OWN-LAH....SAM HOUSTON STATE....HAS UH #1 VOTE....NO CAA TEAM HAS UH VOTE...xchinscratchx......BRAWK!

[ursus arctos horribilis]

16181.....WHAA'S...DUH PROBLEM....xconfusedx.....OURAH POLL FAIRLY...CLOSE WHIFF MOS' NATIONAL POLLS...OUT-DERE.....SO WHERE'S DUH HOMERISM....xconfusedx....OUTSIDE DUH TOP 5....OWN-LAH....SAM HOUSTON STATE....HAS UH #1 VOTE....NO CAA TEAM HAS UH VOTE...xchinscratchx......BRAWK!

That's the thing, there isn't a problem.

[HensRock]

Overall, I think the polls are pretty consistent. I do find it funny that only the CAA had Lehigh at 10. I suspect a few of our 'feathered friends' from down under could not stomach voting while still remembering last year's playoff game. (;-)

Why don't we wait until the end of the season to see who was closest to reality.
BTW, I hardly think 1 place difference is statistically significant.

[clenz]

That's how I've always felt as well. There are merits to both systems but it just didn't work for me as far as the preseason & early season went.

But, if nobody did it there would be much, much less to argue about and even talk about to learn more about the teams involved.

If a person does their poll each week correctly it shouldn't matter if a "good" poll isn't able to be formed until week 4. A good pollster will end up with the same looking poll at week 4 if they did a preseason poll or not.

[ngineer]

I think if more teams in the FCS would commit to more home/home meetings, more fanbases would be more familar with the other conferences/competiton (Ivy....ya listening?). I would have loved to see GA Southern come up to NDSU because it would have brought more visibility to the Bison (or GA Southern) early. Doing this, I think you would see alot more average fans familiar with (at least somewhat educated) to competing conferences. Just my xtwocentsx

Part of the problem with that is some of the conferences us most of their OOC games to cash checks from the 'big boys'..We've tried to get games with some SoCon schools, but they'd rather get a $400k ***-whippin' from Florida State, etc.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

If a person does their poll each week correctly it shouldn't matter if a "good" poll isn't able to be formed until week 4. A good pollster will end up with the same looking poll at week 4 if they did a preseason poll or not.

True enough.