Playoff prognostications after week 5

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

Seeds
1. North Dakota State -picking them to finish 11-0 for now.
2. Wofford - Win over App. has them in the driver's seat and closer to running the SoCon table than GSU
3. Montana State - has no problem with Sac State and EWU. Looks like the best BSC team by a fairly wide marigin
4. JMU (what, you don't think the CAA champs will get a seed?)
5. UNI (manages to get a seed despite late loss to NDSU)

Automatic Bids
SoCon: Wofford. Win over App. and 2-0 SoCon record means they are closer to winning the SoCon than any other team.
CAA: JMU. Any CAA team could finish under .500 and any team except Nova can win the conference, kind of just picked JMU on a whim.
Big Sky: Montana State. Like I said, they simply look like the best BSC team
MVC: North Dakota State. Give them the advantage over UNI because it's in the Fargo Dome
Southland: Sam Houston State. Sammy wins the Piney Woods match and finishes 10-1 or 11-0.
MEAC: Norfolk State. Win over SCSU puts them in the driver's seat.
OVC: Jacksonville State. Looks like JSU-TT game will decide the champ for now.
Patriot: Lehigh. Easily the best PL team since Colgate's '03 team, no?
Big South: Liberty. Big South play hasn't started yet, but I still think Liberty looks the best.
NEC: Robert Morris. Just on a whim, no clear favorites as of now IMO.

At-Large Bids.
CAA: New Hampshire, Maine, Richmond.
W&M and UD are both 2 losses away from elimination and won't survive the CAA gauntlet.

SoCon: Georgia Southern, App. State, Furman
The Big 3 is back in business. But wait, none of us got the autobid?

Big Sky: Eastern Washington, Montana
EWU wins out and is one of the last teams in. Griz beat ISU on the road, win the next 4 in Missoula, lose to MSU, and get in at 8-3.

Great West: Southern Utah. If SUU manages to finish 7-4 or better with all the tough road games they have, then they deserve to be in it.

Big South: Coastal Carolina. Win over Furman gives them the boost to be the last team in.

[EDIT] - Replace CCU with Northern Iowa. Hard to see them not making it.
[EDIT #2] - Added UNI as the #5 seed

[Sycamore51]

No at large teams from the MVFC?

[TexasTerror]

Southland: Sam Houston State. Sammy wins the Piney Woods match and finishes 10-1 or 11-0.

If SHSU finishes with a 10-1 or 11-0 record... how do you keep them out of your top seeds? Unless the loss happens in the last game of the season versus Texas St-San Marcos, not sure that it would make enough 'noise' to keep the Kats out of the seasons when there will be plenty of two loss teams...

[Reign of Terrier]

Coastal will win the Big South IMO

[Crosis]

Old Dominion out of the great state of Virginia might get to seven games. They currently stand at 4-1, and face Rhode Island, Towson, and Villanova in their next three football games. Towson will be the strongest, but the game is at home and as I witnessed last night, Old Dominion is very good at home. The other two are winnable road matches for the Monarchs. It is entirely possible they are 7-1 after week eight.

And with the blessing of our lord, Liberty will win the Big South. There is no reason Liberty should not.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

No at large teams from the MVFC?

Crap. Definitely should have thrown UNI in there. xoopsx


If SHSU finishes with a 10-1 or 11-0 record... how do you keep them out of your top seeds? Unless the loss happens in the last game of the season versus Texas St-San Marcos, not sure that it would make enough 'noise' to keep the Kats out of the seasons when there will be plenty of two loss teams...

Don't think a 10-1 or 11-0 SHSU will get a seed over a 10-1 Montana State, a SoCon undefeated in FCS games, an undefeated MVC champ, and the CAA champs, though I think they should get consideration over a CAA with FCS losses.

[UNH Fanboi]

Crap. Definitely should have thrown UNI in there. xoopsx



Don't think a 10-1 or 11-0 SHSU will get a seed over a 10-1 Montana State, a SoCon undefeated in FCS games, an undefeated MVC champ, and the CAA champs, though I think they should get consideration over a CAA with FCS losses.

Don't forget that there are 5 seeds this year (as there were last year too).

[bjtheflamesfan]

Coastal will win the Big South IMO

I must respectfully disagree YT...CCU is gonna have to come to Lynchburg and pretty much whenever that happens, the score is pretty lopsided in Liberty's favor. No Big South team has won at Liberty since 2006, and the games have not been close. I still think the Big South AQ is Liberty's to lose

[tribefan40]

Interesting that you have EWU in and UD and WM out. Maine is looking good this year, but they will need to prove they can go the distance. UR does not look like a playoff team at this point, and look for ODU to make noise right up to the end.

[whitey]

Interesting that you have EWU in and UD and WM out. Maine is looking good this year, but they will need to prove they can go the distance. UR does not look like a playoff team at this point, and look for ODU to make noise right up to the end.

I agree on both counts about Eastern Washington and Richmond. I know EWU are the defending champs but they are so far out of the driver's seat at this point I would think they are on the outside looking in. Meanwhile Indiana State is 4-1, with a I-A win. As far as Richmond. There are definitely two teams in the CAA better than the Spiders (JMU & UNH) and probably another 3-5 more (Maine, W&M, Delaware most likely) and possibly Towson and ODU.

[MplsBison]

UNI is the best team in the MVFC until someone beats them. Indiana St will get a crack next week. NDSU is not a seeded team until they can win the MVFC (ie, beat UNI).

Wofford is as good a pick as anyone as #1 in the nation. That 35-27 loss to Clemson looks better all the time.


Montana St probably shouldn't be seeded after the embarrassment in Bozeman last year. They may win the Big Sky - but why should we trust them that they won't just be embarrassed again by another MVFC at-large? Maybe Indiana St will do the honors this time?

[nmatsen]

UNI is the best team in the MVFC until someone beats them. Indiana St will get a crack next week. NDSU is not a seeded team until they can win the MVFC (ie, beat UNI).

Wofford is as good a pick as anyone as #1 in the nation. That 35-27 loss to Clemson looks better all the time.


Montana St probably shouldn't be seeded after the embarrassment in Bozeman last year. They may win the Big Sky - but why should we trust them that they won't just be embarrassed again by another MVFC at-large? Maybe Indiana St will do the honors this time?

Jesus, if you continue to make logical comments I will have to stop thinking so poorly of your fan base by judging you based on your more "irrational" fans...

[BlueHen86]

At-Large Bids.
CAA: New Hampshire, Maine, Richmond.
W&M and UD are both 2 losses away from elimination and won't survive the CAA gauntlet.


The winner of W&M vs. Delaware next week probably gets in. W&M will be probably be favored in every game after next week, beat the Hens and they could still lose one and finish 8-3.
Same goes for UD, they may not be favored in every game after W&M (although I'm not sure who'd be expected to beat them) but 1 loss still leaves them 8-3.

Delaware's remaining schedule:
Sat, Oct 8 vs William & Mary
Sat, Oct 15 vs Massachusetts
Sat, Oct 22 @ Rhode Island
Sat, Oct 29 @ Towson
Sat, Nov 12 vs Richmond
Sat, Nov 19 vs Villanova

W&M's remaining schedule:
Sat, Oct 8 @ Delaware
Sat, Oct 15 vs New Hampshire
Sat, Oct 22 vs Towson
Sat, Nov 5 @ Rhode Island
Sat, Nov 12 vs Old Dominion
Sat, Nov 19 @ Richmond

[apaladin]

I see Furman as a very long shot at this time. They are not getting a single vote for the top 25 so that's a long ladder to climb. I still think the that first game loss at CCU will come back to haunt them. If Forcier had played the last quarter+ they very well could be 4-0 instead of 3-1 but he didn't and they are not.

[youwouldno]

I see Furman as a very long shot at this time. They are not getting a single vote for the top 25 so that's a long ladder to climb. I still think the that first game loss at CCU will come back to haunt them. If Forcier had played the last quarter+ they very well could be 4-0 instead of 3-1 but he didn't and they are not.

The best thing for the polls is to beat ranked teams, which would have to happen anyway to secure a playoff berth. App St is sure to be overrated which is a bonus too, considering it's a home game for the Paladins.

[Squealofthepig]

Interesting that you have EWU in and UD and WM out. Maine is looking good this year, but they will need to prove they can go the distance. UR does not look like a playoff team at this point, and look for ODU to make noise right up to the end.

EWU's toughest games are behind it; Maine's are in front of it - JMU, Nova, Richmond and New Hampshire - ALL on the road, plus Rhode Island, an improved Towson team and UMass at home. If Maine gets enough wins (need four) to become playoff eligible, I agree they should be in. Delaware also has tough games left and needs to win all but one to be playoff eligible, which is possible but maybe not probable. EWU's road games (Sac State, NAU, Cal Poly, Idaho State) aren't quite as difficult, although I expect Sac State to end EWU's season.

[BlueHen86]

I see Furman as a very long shot at this time. They are not getting a single vote for the top 25 so that's a long ladder to climb. I still think the that first game loss at CCU will come back to haunt them. If Forcier had played the last quarter+ they very well could be 4-0 instead of 3-1 but he didn't and they are not.

I wouldn't worry about the polls. If Furman finishes 8-3 they will most likely be in the playoffs regardless of the polls.

I agree that they are a long shot, lots of tough SoCon games and an end of year date at Florida. Not much margin for error.

[PaladinFan]

I wouldn't worry about the polls. If Furman finishes 8-3 they will most likely be in the playoffs regardless of the polls.

I agree that they are a long shot, lots of tough SoCon games and an end of year date at Florida. Not much margin for error.

To go 8-3, Furman will have to beat some combination of Florida, App State, Wofford, and Georgia Southern. I think that gets you in with two wins over that crowd.

[Twentysix]

No atlarge from the mvfc? If the trend continues id bet the farm on UNI and ISUb and NDSU all making the playoffs..

[Reign of Terrier]

To go 8-3, Furman will have to beat some combination of Florida, App State, Wofford, and Georgia Southern. I think that gets you in with two wins over that crowd.

Furman could probably make it at 7-4

[youwouldno]

Furman could probably make it at 7-4

It would almost certainly be deserved at that record but there would be significant potential of being screwed.