Patriot League Attrition Rates

[carney2]

Maybe I'm just clueless, but I found this astounding. I took a look at the 2011 rosters for all of the Patriot League schools except Fordham and compared them to the recruiting rosters for 2008 (this year's seniors) and 2008 (juniors). I was looking for attrition - recruits in those years who are no longer with the program. One more time - the numbers are astounding!

Number of Recruits / Number Who Have Left the Program / Attrition Rate

BUCKNELL
2008: 25 12 48%
2009: 27 8 30%
2 Year Combined: 52 20 38%

COLGATE
2008: 32 15 47%
2009: 31 12 39%
2 Year Combined: 63 27 43%

GEORGETOWN
2008: 33 19 58%
2009: 28 15 54%
2 Year Combined: 61 34 56%

HOLY CROSS
2008: 23 7 30%
2009: 28 9 32%
2 Year Combined: 51 16 31%

LAFAYETTE
2008: 28 10 36%
2009: 17 3 18%
2 Year Combined: 45 13 29%

LEHIGH
2008: 27 7 26%
2009: 26 8 31%
2 Year Combined: 53 15 28%

PATRIOT LEAGUE ATTRITION RATES:
2008: 42%
2009 35%
2 Year Combined: 38%

[ngineer]

Maybe I'm just clueless, but I found this astounding. I took a look at the 2011 rosters for all of the Patriot League schools except Fordham and compared them to the recruiting rosters for 2008 (this year's seniors) and 2008 (juniors). I was looking for attrition - recruits in those years who are no longer with the program. One more time - the numbers are astounding!

Number of Recruits / Number Who Have Left the Program / Attrition Rate

Unfortunately for us, we lost our punter, not due to him wanting to leave the program, but because he took an energy drink before the Northern Iowa game that resulted in him failing a urine screen conducted thereafter. While still in school, he cannot play this year per NCAA regulations. Very harsh result, imo. I could see a suspension for a game or two, but a full year ban? At the same time, it was his own fault. The players are given a list of approved drinks that won't get them in trouble. What is also curious is that he was a punter, for gawdsake...not a 'high energy' position.
As to the thread, itself, I am not surprised. I, myself, only lasted two years. The body took a beating with separated cartilege in sternum (and I wasn't getting any money) so reality took over and said focus on why you're here..get your grades up, you're not going to be the next Joe Scarpati. The demands at PL schools are very high. I thoroughly admire all our league players who can get through four years and graduate with decent grades in majors you cannot hide.

BUCKNELL
2008: 25 12 48%
2009: 27 8 30%
2 Year Combined: 52 20 38%

COLGATE
2008: 32 15 47%
2009: 31 12 39%
2 Year Combined: 63 27 43%

GEORGETOWN
2008: 33 19 58%
2009: 28 15 54%
2 Year Combined: 61 34 56%

HOLY CROSS
2008: 23 7 30%
2009: 28 9 32%
2 Year Combined: 51 16 31%

LAFAYETTE
2008: 28 10 36%
2009: 17 3 18%
2 Year Combined: 45 13 29%

LEHIGH
2008: 27 7 26%
2009: 26 8 31%
2 Year Combined: 53 15 28%

PATRIOT LEAGUE ATTRITION RATES:
2008: 42%
2009 35%
2 Year Combined: 38%

Unfortunately for us, we lost our punter, not due to him wanting to leave the program, but because he took an energy drink before the Northern Iowa game that resulted in him failing a urine screen conducted thereafter. While still in school, he cannot play this year per NCAA regulations. Very harsh result, imo. I could see a suspension for a game or two, but a full year ban? At the same time, it was his own fault. The players are given a list of approved drinks that won't get them in trouble. What is also curious is that he was a punter, for gawdsake...not a 'high energy' position.
As to the thread, itself, I am not surprised. I, myself, only lasted two years. The body took a beating with separated cartilege in sternum (and I wasn't getting any money) so reality took over and said focus on why you're here..get your grades up, you're not going to be the next Joe Scarpati. The demands at PL schools are very high. I thoroughly admire all our league players who can get through four years and graduate with decent grades in majors you cannot hide.

[cmaxwellgsu]

This is interesting, since GSU has had its share of high attrition over the two previous coaches. I imagine you really have to love the game to play in the Patriot League since there are no scholarships, and those schools have pretty demanding academics. After thinking about it, I can see the PL having high attrition.

[WestCoastAggie]

I wonder if this attrition is reflected in the Multi-Year APR scores of the PL? xcoffeex

[Bogus Megapardus]

I wonder if this attrition is reflected in the Multi-Year APR scores of the PL? xcoffeex

Players who leave the team generally remain enrolled and get their degree. There have been a lot of kids over the years who use football to get into a PL school and then quit the team once they're in. Everybody know at least one or two people who did this.

[breezy]

I am frankly not surprised by these numbers. Patriot League teams recruit over a wide geographical area; some kids get homesick and want to be closer to home. Some kids see the competition at their position and figure they will not get significant playing time so they may want to explore other interests. Sometimes injury causes a player to give up the sport.

Not sure about your numbers. Holy Cross did have some sizable attrition in its junior class; there are currently only about 18 juniors on the roster. On the other hand, the current sophomore class has had relatively little attrition thus far; there are 27 sophomores on the roster.

There is even some attrition in the incoming recruit class. One announced member of the incoming class decided to go to prep school, presumably to try to get a better opportunity next year. Two verbal commits did not show up on the announced recruiting class. One decided to go to a different school (which I believe is Div 2), and one decided to accept a walk-on offer at a BCS school in his home state.

[van]

Not sure about your numbers, I count 28 seniors on the LU roster and 22 Juniors. I believe 3 seniors are 5th year.

[carney2]

Not sure about your numbers, I count 28 seniors on the LU roster and 22 Juniors. I believe 3 seniors are 5th year.

I didn't count seniors and juniors. I gave no consideration at all to a player's listed class. I simply took the recruiting lists from 2008 and 2009 and compared them, name by name, to the 2011 roster. And I am pretty sure about my numbers.

[DFW HOYA]

Thanks for gathering this data. And while every student's decision to play football or not is different, one cannot help but consider one point, esp. as it relates to the decline of the Patriot League: you cannot build programs where half the team is leaving early on a regular basis.

And if you don't think attrition is corrosive to the experience neded to compete, check out Georgetown this year. The Hoyas have 64 underclassmen on the roster, most of whom have never played a down of college football.

[RichH2]

Overall I do not find the numbers shocking given the load all athletes at PL schools have to carry. GU 's retention rate has been noted by DFW for yrs . Losing over half of your recruits may just be a symptom of a losing program but there does seem to be other issues there. Am surprise by the high rate at Gate , a historically strong program with a great coach.

One may qubble about Coen but it is abundantly clear that his kids love him. During his tenure we have lost a bunch of kids back to the West coast, a few to injury but very few to quitting.

[carney2]

At one time last year there were discussions about what many felt was a shockingly high attrition rate in Lafayette's 2008 recruiting class. All of a sudden that doesn't look quite so bad in comparison. In the end a number of reasons were given for the defections, many of them mentioned in this thread. On top of that we are talking about 18-22 year olds. Still, I find these numbers shocking and indefensible.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Players who leave the team generally remain enrolled and get their degree. There have been a lot of kids over the years who use football to get into a PL school and then quit the team once they're in. Everybody know at least one or two people who did this.

My freshman college roomate was one.

[carney2]

My freshman college roomate was one.

Yeah, Yeah. There are 10 million stories in the naked city. I understand. Each of these individuals has a story. Still, based on this small sample, 2 out of 5 recruited Patriot League footballers do not stick with the football program. That's atrocious! Once you wade through this story and that story there is still some element of adults taking advantage of children. It does not speak well of the people who are in charge.

[van]

Wonder how many would stick with the program if they were on a "football" scholarship?

[carney2]

Wonder how many would stick with the program if they were on a "football" scholarship?

It would be MUCH higher. If they quit the football team they lose their scholarship. Under the current system, if they quit the football team the still theoretically qualify for most, if not all, of their financial aid. As pointed out by others, many of the "missing" are still enrolled at their school. That would be much less probable under scholarships. Also, recruiting classes of 30+ would be unnecessary.

[Seawolf97]

Are other PL sports suffering through the same dilema? Basketball, lacrosse etc ?

[ngineer]

It would be MUCH higher. If they quit the football team they lose their scholarship. Under the current system, if they quit the football team the still theoretically qualify for most, if not all, of their financial aid. As pointed out by others, many of the "missing" are still enrolled at their school. That would be much less probable under scholarships. Also, recruiting classes of 30+ would be unnecessary.

Very good point, and another element to consider as to the impact of going scholarship.

[Bogus Megapardus]

Are other PL sports suffering through the same dilema? Basketball, lacrosse etc ?

All PL schools offer scholarships in basketball. The attrition seems very low across the board. There's quite a bit of attrition in (non-scholarship) men's lacrosse; I'd say about half the freshman are still on the team as seniors. They don't leave school, though. Lafayette has full scholarship field hockey (where we're shooting for a realistic chance at a national title) but non-scholarship women's lacrosse. It appears that the field hockey attrition is much lower than the women's lacrosse.

[Doc QB]

Carney, I wonder what the rates would say, if we were able to stratify the kids getting athletic department money versus those on the payroll of the general student population. Lehigh always had a large number of kids in a freshman class on no money at all...many of them only lasted a year or more, and were mostly scout team fodder. I will look at my 1991 frosh class tonight, as I think of close to 30 in the media guide, I bet only fifteen remained on the squad at LU-Lafayette in November 1995. And of that other half, I bet only only half of them even stayed at LU. Happened every year, and it was usually the kids getting football money that stayed.

[andy7171]

Not being able to red shirt hurts you too. 12 credits per semester over 5 years is MUCH easier to handle than 15 in 4. It also allows your freshman class a year to acclimate to college life and course load without having to stress over contributing to the team other than scout team.

[Franks Tanks]

It would be MUCH higher. If they quit the football team they lose their scholarship. Under the current system, if they quit the football team the still theoretically qualify for most, if not all, of their financial aid. As pointed out by others, many of the "missing" are still enrolled at their school. That would be much less probable under scholarships. Also, recruiting classes of 30+ would be unnecessary.

In my experience most of the kids that quit the team had no chance of playing. They of course get frustrated and decide to focus on school. The coaches need to take some flyers on guys in the PL-- they take kids who are a bit too small and hope they gain weight, or they take kids who need to change positions and gamble they can make it work. Some kids flourish and become stars.... I believe Rackley weighed only 260 pounds when he was recruited to Lehigh. Obviously Will flourished, but I would be willing to bet Lehigh took a chance on at least one other 260 lb lineman that year that did not work out.

[RichH2]

Absolutely correct FT, I recall a few yrs back we brought in 7-8 OL in one class all of the super jumbo size, Only 2 made it to sr yr and only 1 left school. With both Kevin and Pete , you would see a couple of 6'5 or 6'6 kids most of whom disappeared by soph year.One I recall vividly from Cal thought he was a stud and transferred to Vanderbilt.
He didn't start there either.

I wonder what the attrition rate is in the IL? Do their football grants lapse if you quit and convert to loan packages ?

[Lehigh Football Nation]

If the NCAA didn't measure retention as a misguided measure of academic progress, retention wouldn't be such a big deal.

Retention is helped when kids are on scholarship, because - unsurprisingly - they're less willing to give up the money of said scholarship if someone else is paying.

This little secret, incidentally, is a big reason why HBCU's have a problem adhering to the Academic Progress Rate, which really measures retention.

But every FCS school in America take "flyers" and hope they get better, and has kids leave the program. Every program has expectations that are not met with the recruits, who all picture themselves as starters, if not stars. You're more likely to stick in something you hate if the "pay is good".

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I wonder what the attrition rate is in the IL? Do their football grants lapse if you quit and convert to loan packages ?

That's a real good question. In theory, if you make it through admissions, everyone is "scholarshipped", since it's entirely based on "need". (The Ivies are just so rich that they can scholarship the great majority of its student body.) It would be real interesting if there is a story out there of an IL player who quit the team and also lost his financial aid.

[LBPop]

To me it boils down to two issues--money and motivation. As has been said here, if there are no dollars attached to staying on the team, it becomes much easier to walk away.

Also, do not discount motivation. These kids do not see playing in the PL as a stepping stone to a professional football career. This is almost certainly their "last stop" in organized football, so if they decide to end it a year or two early, it's not necessarily a huge decision.

I can say first hand that the Ivys worry a lot about this. They border on being paranoid about kids using football to get into a school and immediately dropping the sport. The Brown coach berated my son about his true desire to play football. He as much as said that because LBKid scored in the highest band, the presumption was that he couldn't possibly have the desire to play. The Kid played four years at Georgetown...often hurt.

[van]

Agree with BLPop on that one. A colleague of mine was recruited to Brown as a football player, Andy Talley was his position coach, and played only one year.