View Full Version : teams that you think have scheduled themselves out of the playoffs
txstatebobcat
March 14th, 2006, 07:56 PM
I believe that scheduling is very underrated as far as putting your team in the best possible position to get to the playoffs. We(TxSt) almost made that mistake last year by playing two D-IIs. Also, I may be mistaken, but I believe that Appalachian State is the exception and not the norm when it comes to making it to the playoffs after playing more than one I-A in the regular season.
What are some good teams that have playoff potential that may not make it because of their schedule.
As far as the SLC goes. Southeast Louisiana, Sam Houston St, and maybe McNeese St may have to win the automatic seed just to make it to the playoffs.
Hansel
March 14th, 2006, 08:22 PM
Chuck South = Cupcake Buffet non-conf
DaGriz
March 14th, 2006, 08:22 PM
Portland State had some promise this year. Scheduling 3 I-A teams probably knocked them out of the playoffs already.
CSU BUCS
March 14th, 2006, 09:11 PM
"Chuck South = Cupcake Buffet non-conf"
Agree, if we go 11-0 with that schedule we want get a bid. I thought for sure we would upgrade. we return everyone except for a few d-linemen from last years team.
VictorG
March 14th, 2006, 09:23 PM
Montana State....................They have to play the Griz !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I know it's way to early for this but I went and watched Spring practice today and I'm jazzed!!!
PSU for sure did it to themselves but I'm sure they had their reasons.
Husky Alum
March 14th, 2006, 09:24 PM
Northeastern has.
Here's how NU opens
@ Va Tech
@ ND State
@ Holy Cross
@ JMU
@ Richmond
Yeah, that's 5 in a row on the road.
GeauxLions94
March 14th, 2006, 10:10 PM
As far as the SLC goes. Southeastern Louisiana, Sam Houston St, and maybe McNeese St may have to win the automatic seed just to make it to the playoffs.
Games against New Mexico State, Southern Miss and Texas Tech won't help, though I think we'll have a good shot at New Mexico State. Hey, 9-2 wouldn't be bad :smiley_wi
leatherneck177
March 14th, 2006, 10:35 PM
I think the fact that we scheduled two D-II's in Kentucky Wesleyan and Morehead State does not help.
MR. CHICKEN
March 14th, 2006, 10:38 PM
PORTLAND STATE......&......RHODE ISLAND!.....................BAWK!
DUPFLFan
March 14th, 2006, 11:13 PM
Leatherneck, Isn't Morehead State d-1aa?
TexasTerror
March 14th, 2006, 11:33 PM
Northwestern St has three I-As scheduled as well...you missed them in your SLC "screwing self out of the playoff" selection...
mainejeff
March 15th, 2006, 12:09 AM
I'll tell you around September when I find out Maine's schedule.......:( :mad:
kats89
March 15th, 2006, 12:09 AM
If we play like we did last year, it won't matter who we schedule.
Tx State better pull out their cupcake schedule again this year with 28 seniors gone.:D
Lionsrking
March 15th, 2006, 02:18 AM
As far as the SLC goes. Southeast Louisiana, Sam Houston St, and maybe McNeese St may have to win the automatic seed just to make it to the playoffs.
How do you figure we scheduled ourselves out of the playoffs? Assuming we lose all three I-A games, we can still go 8-3 or 7-4, and the last I checked, that will get you considered for the playoffs. All of our opponents are division I. Perhaps you don't think that's realistic but we feel pretty good about our chances in the SLC race this year. We'll be a lot better than you think.
Kill'em
March 15th, 2006, 08:10 AM
Leatherneck, Isn't Morehead State d-1aa?
Yes they are. However, they are a non-scholarship I-AA. No offense to them but they are as competitve as a D-II school. We played them last year and it wasn't pretty.
89Hen
March 15th, 2006, 08:41 AM
Elon by joining the SoCon.
McNeese72
March 15th, 2006, 08:57 AM
How do you figure we scheduled ourselves out of the playoffs? Assuming we lose all three I-A games, we can still go 8-3 or 7-4, and the last I checked, that will get you considered for the playoffs. All of our opponents are division I. Perhaps you don't think that's realistic but we feel pretty good about our chances in the SLC race this year. We'll be a lot better than you think.
Because it is hard to go throught the SLC without a loss. With a SLC loss and, if you don't win the automatic bid, you are at the usual "4 loss cutoff" for the playoffs.
Doc
TexasTerror
March 15th, 2006, 09:02 AM
Because it is hard to go throught the SLC without a loss. With a SLC loss and, if you don't win the automatic bid, you are at the usual "4 loss cutoff" for the playoffs.
Hence the reason all of us can't wait for the SLC. Expect the unexpected. Lots of teams can spoil your season while your on the road...
MYTAPPY
March 15th, 2006, 09:39 AM
East Tennessee State....ooooohhhhhh wait.... thats right............
My bad.....xlolx
carney2
March 15th, 2006, 09:51 AM
Lafayette's schedule, in my opinion, does them no favors for at-large playoff consideration. Out of 5 non-conference games for each of the next three seasons, they have scheduled 12 of the total non-conference 15 games against Ivy League opponents. The other 3 are against NEC and MAAC teams. Now, as much as I believe that the top of the Ivy League is competitive with most I-AA programs, I perceive that a win vs. an Ivy team is not given much national credibility and a loss is a black eye. It seems to be a lose - lose situation.
Here is one vote for that 12th game, but only if Bruce McCutcheon, the Lafayette AD, gets himself a map that pinpoints the locations of A-10 schools. H-E-double-hockey-sticks, I'd even go to Youngstown.
DUPFLFan
March 15th, 2006, 10:15 AM
I guess based on Kill'em's response that all of the PFL have scheduled their way out of the playoffs by playing each other....
Offense taken...
blukeys
March 15th, 2006, 10:20 AM
Here is one vote for that 12th game, but only if Bruce McCutcheon, the Lafayette AD, gets himself a map that pinpoints the locations of A-10 schools. H-E-double-hockey-sticks, I'd even go to Youngstown.
Now that's funny!!!xlolx xlolx :nod: :D
atlGAmocs
March 15th, 2006, 11:27 AM
Chattanooga's 7 away games may mean no playoffs for the improving Mocs.
AD Steve Sloan gives Mocs fans quite a going away gift:
Aug. 31 – at Tennessee Tech
Sept. 9 – at Memphis
Sept. 16 – at Western Kentucky
Sept. 23 – Georgia Southern
Sept. 30 – at The Citadel
Oct. 7 – Appalachian State
Oct. 14 – at Western Carolina
Oct. 21 – at Furman
Oct. 28 – Elon
Nov. 4 – Jacksonville State
Nov. 11 – at Wofford
89Hen
March 15th, 2006, 11:35 AM
Chattanooga's 7 away games may mean no playoffs for the improving Mocs.
It might not be the 7 away games that does it though...
Sept. 23 – Georgia Southern
Oct. 7 – Appalachian State
GaSouthern
March 15th, 2006, 11:36 AM
I think CCU scheduled themselves out... because the will not get the huge W to L ratio because they have a real schedule this year!
PDXCat
March 15th, 2006, 12:50 PM
Montana State....................They have to play the Griz !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I know it's way to early for this but I went and watched Spring practice today and I'm jazzed!!!
PSU for sure did it to themselves but I'm sure they had their reasons.
Oh Victor, we're shaking in our boots to play the mighty griz again. You guys will be good no doubt, but we'll be way better than most folks think - should be fun! Can you say four out of five? :smiley_wi
Eaglegus2
March 15th, 2006, 01:15 PM
Leatherneck, Isn't Morehead State d-1aa?
:nod: :nod: :nod: :nod:
dbackjon
March 15th, 2006, 01:16 PM
NAU has two I-A teams (Arizona State and Utah) and 1 D-2 game (Dixie State). We have to go at least 7-1 in conference to even qualify for the playoffs, which basically means we win the Big Sky, or sit home.
Lionsrking
March 15th, 2006, 01:43 PM
Because it is hard to go throught the SLC without a loss. With a SLC loss and, if you don't win the automatic bid, you are at the usual "4 loss cutoff" for the playoffs.
Doc
If we were to go 7-4 with our schedule and play reasonably well in the I-A games, I would think we would merit consideration. It may not be enough to get us in but it's not unreasonable. If we can manage to knock off New Mexico State, we could lose two conference games and be eligible. Of course if we go 6-1 or even 5-2 in the league this year, that just might be enough to get the auto bid.
Realistically, we're probably a year or two away from being a major contender but I do think we'll have enough talent to be in the hunt this year if some younger players step up like we think they can.
VictorG
March 15th, 2006, 01:58 PM
Oh Victor, we're shaking in our boots to play the mighty griz again. You guys will be good no doubt, but we'll be way better than most folks think - should be fun! Can you say four out of five? :smiley_wi
Just playin here. I actually think you'll be just as good as you have been. I like balanced offenses!
Yes I can say 4 out of 5 and in 3 more years I will say that to you!xlolx
OL FU
March 15th, 2006, 02:15 PM
It might not be the 7 away games that does it though...
Sept. 23 – Georgia Southern
Oct. 7 – Appalachian State
You forgot Oct 21:nod: :)
Kill'em
March 15th, 2006, 03:01 PM
I guess based on Kill'em's response that all of the PFL have scheduled their way out of the playoffs by playing each other....
Offense taken...
Sorry, it was not intended as smack. My point is that Moorehead St was way overmatched. Coach Sewak emptied the bench and we still scored at will. From what I understand, they were not a conference cellar-dweller.
89Hen
March 15th, 2006, 06:21 PM
You forgot Oct 21:nod: :)
That's one of the seven away games though.
Cocky
March 15th, 2006, 06:22 PM
JSU has all the big conference games away (EIU and EKU). Our other good games are away also Furman, Chattanooga, and Miss State.
txstatebobcat
March 15th, 2006, 08:45 PM
Northwestern St has three I-As scheduled as well...you missed them in your SLC "screwing self out of the playoff" selection...
They are losing a lot of players of a team that underachieved last year. I didn't expect them to seriously contend for the SLC title to begin with. This is why I chose not to put them in the selection.
txstatebobcat
March 15th, 2006, 08:50 PM
How do you figure we scheduled ourselves out of the playoffs? Assuming we lose all three I-A games, we can still go 8-3 or 7-4, and the last I checked, that will get you considered for the playoffs. All of our opponents are division I. Perhaps you don't think that's realistic but we feel pretty good about our chances in the SLC race this year. We'll be a lot better than you think.
I doubt 7-4 will get you to the playoffs without the SLC's automatic seed. With that said, I think SLU has as good a chance of winning the SLC as anyone in the wide open Southland next season.
blackfordpu
March 15th, 2006, 09:07 PM
I believe that scheduling is very underrated as far as putting your team in the best possible position to get to the playoffs. We(TxSt) almost made that mistake last year by playing two D-IIs. Also, I may be mistaken, but I believe that Appalachian State is the exception and not the norm when it comes to making it to the playoffs after playing more than one I-A in the regular season.
What are some good teams that have playoff potential that may not make it because of their schedule.
As far as the SLC goes. Southeast Louisiana, Sam Houston St, and maybe McNeese St may have to win the automatic seed just to make it to the playoffs.
How has SHSU scheduled themselves out of the playoffs? Even if we don't win the SLC, we will have a shot at an at large bid if we are second in the SLC because of the SOS we will have next season.
Husky Alum
March 15th, 2006, 11:01 PM
H-E-double-hockey-sticks, I'd even go to Youngstown.
Yeah, but your offensive line scored more on its SAT's than the entire 65 man Penguin Roster.
R.A.
March 16th, 2006, 06:00 AM
I'll say Hampton... but I'll say Hampton WITH ONE MAIN STIPULATION. They have to lose during the regular season. It's my opinion that if they lose even one regular season game, they don't make the playoffs.
Kill'em
March 16th, 2006, 06:10 AM
This is just my opinion but I think it'll take more than one loss to keep Hampton out of the playoffs.
R.A.
March 16th, 2006, 06:37 AM
You know what Kill'em, you maybe right. A 10-1 Hampton may get in, especially if they are still Conference Champs
carney2
March 16th, 2006, 11:55 AM
This is just my opinion but I think it'll take more than one loss to keep Hampton out of the playoffs.
Not a done deal for Hampton. South Carolina State may actually be better than them. In any event, it is a flat out certainty that the playoffs do not have room for more than one MEAC team.
*****
March 16th, 2006, 12:06 PM
What about 2003?
R.A.
March 17th, 2006, 05:47 AM
-No, there is room for two MEAC teams. I stand corrected. I was just so convinced that Hampton's schedule is so weak, that one loss would do them in. But I realize I'm wrong. The past has proven that.
-SCSU once again has the perfect schedule to win over the committee, with games at Wofford, at Coastal Carolina, B-CC at home, and Hampton at home for homecoming. If they can go 3-1 in those four games, and finish 10-1, they'll finally get that at-large bid. Everyone knew that SCSU's magic number was always 10 wins. But the automatic bid by winning the MEAC title would do them much more nicely.
-Hampton has most of their big guns back this season. But their strongest contests are versus SCSU, Grambling, and B-CC. If they go undefeated again and win the conference title, they'll be right back where they were last season, with a home playoff date.
-Since 2004, it's been the same set up in the MEAC. I don't think there will be much difference in 2006. 1.)Hampton, 2.)SCSU, 3.)B-CC... but we'll see. Hampton's schedule might not have them properly prepared for their game in Orangeburg versus SCSU.
carney2
March 17th, 2006, 10:52 AM
What about 2003?
After Hampton's performance in the 2005 playoffs, the league will be lucky if they don't lose any automatic bid that they may have. Personally, I have reserved the number 25 spot in my Top 25 for the MEAC front runner, and will not be moving them up without an act of Congress.
89Hen
March 17th, 2006, 02:17 PM
After Hampton's performance in the 2005 playoffs, the league will be lucky if they don't lose any automatic bid that they may have. Personally, I have reserved the number 25 spot in my Top 25 for the MEAC front runner, and will not be moving them up without an act of Congress.
Coulson, why did you change your screen name?
henfan
March 17th, 2006, 03:03 PM
Coulson, why did you change your screen name?
My guess: either Dave's celebrating St. Paddy's Day or he's joined the carnival circuit. There's really already a Carney1?!:)
R.A.
March 18th, 2006, 03:13 AM
After Hampton's performance in the 2005 playoffs, the league will be lucky if they don't lose any automatic bid that they may have. Personally, I have reserved the number 25 spot in my Top 25 for the MEAC front runner, and will not be moving them up without an act of Congress.
-Every year is different. An undefeated season will be rewarded, especially if they can post blow out victories.
JohnStOnge
March 18th, 2006, 08:33 AM
How do you figure we scheduled ourselves out of the playoffs? Assuming we lose all three I-A games, we can still go 8-3 or 7-4, and the last I checked, that will get you considered for the playoffs. All of our opponents are division I. Perhaps you don't think that's realistic but we feel pretty good about our chances in the SLC race this year. We'll be a lot better than you think.
If Southeastern Louisiana has a playoff caliber team I think the chances of going 1-2 against the I-As are pretty good and 2-1 is not out of the realm of reasonable possibility. New Mexico State should be very beatable for a playoff caliber I-AA. Southern Miss, historically, is only one game over 0.500 (4-2) against I-AAs that have gone on to make the playoffs. The average score is Southern Miss 24, I-AA playoff team 16.
But if they do go 0-3 against the I-As, I think an at large bid is very unlikely. In that scenario, if they don't win the conference that means they'll have at least four losses. I suppose it's possible the Lions could get in with four losses but it'd surprise me.
Maybe Ralph can tell us the last time a team got an at large berth with more than three losses.
RabidRabbit
March 18th, 2006, 10:17 AM
:hurray: Maybe Ralph can tell us the last time a team got an at large berth with more than three losses.
:hurray:
:smiley_wi That's easy - '05 Cal Poly 7-4 & East WA 7-4 going in :smiley_wi
I'd like to know if ANY 5 loss team has made the play-offs?
slostang
March 18th, 2006, 10:34 AM
:hurray: Maybe Ralph can tell us the last time a team got an at large berth with more than three losses.
:hurray:
:smiley_wi That's easy - '05 Cal Poly 7-4 & East WA 7-4 going in :smiley_wi
I'd like to know if ANY 5 loss team has made the play-offs?
Cal Poly entered the playoffs in 2005 with a 8-3 record against an all D-I schedule including I-A Troy. EWU entered with a 7-4 record, but they were not an at large team. They were the Big Sky's autobid team after sharing the conference tittle.
Bulldog87
March 18th, 2006, 06:07 PM
SCSU will have to beat Wofford and CCU on the road to have a chance. Playing Winston Salem won't help the SOS and even if we beat Hampton at home we still have to face FAMU in Tally. BTW,Homecoming is vs Howard this year in November. Hope to see you there RA.
Obzerver
March 18th, 2006, 07:20 PM
slostang, you're correct. Eastern Washington has also picked up another I-A team(West Virginia and Oregon State earlier) which I think will hurt our chances because we can't afford two losses with our team in transition this season.
DuckDuckGriz
March 18th, 2006, 07:37 PM
slostang, you're correct. Eastern Washington has also picked up another I-A team(West Virginia and Oregon State earlier) which I think will hurt our chances because we can't afford two losses with our team in transition this season.
I-A losses rarely have an effect in the polls. I remember (I think it was 2000) Georgia Southern was number 1 and got blown out by Georgia -- and kept their top spot.
When I-AA schedules I-A there's nothing to lose for the former.
*****
March 18th, 2006, 07:53 PM
...I'd like to know if ANY 5 loss team has made the play-offs?It was just three years ago (2003) that Montana State won the Big Sky autobid with a 7-5 record.
EDITED: corrected wrong year for MSU
Hansel
March 18th, 2006, 07:56 PM
It was just two years ago (2004) that Montana State won the Big Sky autobid with a 7-5 record.
Didn't they do it in back-to-back years
*****
March 18th, 2006, 07:58 PM
They did it in 2002 as well, correct Hansel.
2003: http://i-aa.org/article.asp?articleid=50876
2002: http://i-aa.org/article.asp?articleid=37938
So losing five games doesn't hurt getting in the playoffs as long as you win an AQ conference.
MACHIAVELLI
March 18th, 2006, 08:07 PM
-No, there is room for two MEAC teams. I stand corrected. I was just so convinced that Hampton's schedule is so weak, that one loss would do them in. But I realize I'm wrong. The past has proven that.
-SCSU once again has the perfect schedule to win over the committee, with games at Wofford, at Coastal Carolina, B-CC at home, and Hampton at home for homecoming. If they can go 3-1 in those four games, and finish 10-1, they'll finally get that at-large bid. Everyone knew that SCSU's magic number was always 10 wins. But the automatic bid by winning the MEAC title would do them much more nicely.
-Hampton has most of their big guns back this season. But their strongest contests are versus SCSU, Grambling, and B-CC. If they go undefeated again and win the conference title, they'll be right back where they were last season, with a home playoff date.
-Since 2004, it's been the same set up in the MEAC. I don't think there will be much difference in 2006. 1.)Hampton, 2.)SCSU, 3.)B-CC... but we'll see. Hampton's schedule might not have them properly prepared for their game in Orangeburg versus SCSU.
hampton won't go undefeated, unless you are talking about in the meac.
Hansel
March 18th, 2006, 08:14 PM
They did it in 2002 as well, correct Hansel.
2003: http://i-aa.org/article.asp?articleid=50876
2002: http://i-aa.org/article.asp?articleid=37938
So losing five games doesn't hurt getting in the playoffs as long as you win an AQ conference.
Further reason to dump the autobid ;)
*****
March 18th, 2006, 08:16 PM
Hansel, you heard Doug Fullerton/Jim Miller say on I-AA WAVES that it has not been discussed meaning... no chance.
Hansel
March 18th, 2006, 08:23 PM
Hansel, you heard Doug Fullerton/Jim Miller say on I-AA WAVES that it has not been discussed meaning... no chance.
A guy can hope :)
*****
March 18th, 2006, 08:28 PM
I'll keep asking... maybe that will spur discussion...;)
Kill'em
March 18th, 2006, 09:01 PM
I-A losses rarely have an effect in the polls. I remember (I think it was 2000) Georgia Southern was number 1 and got blown out by Georgia -- and kept their top spot.
When I-AA schedules I-A there's nothing to lose for the former.
I woudn't call losing 27-7 to a top 10 I-A team being blown out.
slostang
March 18th, 2006, 09:35 PM
slostang, you're correct. Eastern Washington has also picked up another I-A team(West Virginia and Oregon State earlier) which I think will hurt our chances because we can't afford two losses with our team in transition this season.
Two tough games. What kind of pay day is EWU getting to play West Virginia and Oregon State? OSU is a good regional game for EWU and WV is a nice trip to beautiful country.
Cal Poly is playing San Jose State and San Diego State. Not as good of pay days or recognition, but games that they just might sneak out a win.
igo4uni
March 18th, 2006, 10:53 PM
Further reason to dump the autobid ;)
I like the autobid. Why dump it??
Obzerver
March 20th, 2006, 08:33 PM
Two tough games. What kind of pay day is EWU getting to play West Virginia and Oregon State? OSU is a good regional game for EWU and WV is a nice trip to beautiful country.
Cal Poly is playing San Jose State and San Diego State. Not as good of pay days or recognition, but games that they just might sneak out a win.
If every thing falls into place it's $200,000 for the bus ride to Oregon State and $450,000 for West Virginia...Cal Poly has a chance in both your I-A games!
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