Patsy Ratings Through the Years

[carney2]

My fellow Leopard, Pard4Life, has requested it and here is an attempt to show Patsy Ratings by year, by school and also show final Patriot League finishes for that school when the entering class reached junior and senior standing. Please note that the rules have changed over the years and that there may have been extenuating circumstances. Where I remembered things that I thought were pertinent I included them as footnotes.

Oh yeah, I have included Fordham in the 2010 Patriot League standings and win-loss records as if they were fully participating League members.

BUCKNELL
2007:
Patsy Points = 54; Patsy Finish = 5
as Juniors (2009): 4-7, 2-4, 6th
as Seniors (2010): 1-10, 1-5, 7th

2008:
Patsy Points = 53; Patsy Finish = 7
as Juniors (2010): 1-10, 1-5, 7th

2009:
Patsy Points = 70, Patsy Finish = 1 (Tie)
2010:
Patsy Points = 50, Patsy Finish = 5

COLGATE
2007:
Patsy Points = 57; Patsy Finish = 4
as Juniors (2009): 9-2, 4-2, 3rd
as Seniors (2010): 7-4, 4-2, 3rd

2008:
Patsy Points = 64; Patsy Finish = 5
as Juniors (2010): 7-4, 4-2, 3rd

2009:
Patsy Points = 50, Patsy Finish = 4
2010:
Patsy Points = 25, Patsy Finish = 7

FORDHAM (A)
2007:
Patsy Points = 60; Patsy Finish = 3
as Juniors (2009): 5-6, 2-4, 5th
as Seniors (2010): 5-6, 3-3, 4th

2008:
Patsy Points = 71; Patsy Finish = 3
as Juniors (2010): 5-6, 3-3, 4th

2009:
Patsy Points = 35, Patsy Finish = 7
2010:
Patsy Points = 28, Patsy Finish = 6

(A) Fordham went scholarship in 2010. Heavy recruiting of transfers in 2010. Transfers are not considered in Patsy Ratings.

GEORGETOWN (B)
2007:
Patsy Points = 42; Patsy Finish = 6
as Juniors (2009): 0-11, 0-6, 7th
as Seniors (2010): 4-7, 2-4, 5th

2008:
Patsy Points = 79; Patsy Finish = 1
as Juniors (2010): 4-7, 2-4, 5th

2009:
Patsy Points = 38, Patsy Finish = 6
2010:
Patsy Points = 58, Patsy Finish = 4

(B) The Georgetown recruiting class of 2008 was loaded with highly rated QBs (7, if memory serves me well). This caused high Patsy Ratings and rules changes for the next year. Also, Georgetown seems to have a relatively high attrition rate.

HOLY CROSS (C)
2007:
Patsy Points = 22; Patsy Finish = 7
as Juniors (2009): 9-2, 5-1, 1st
as Seniors (2010): 6-5, 4-2, 2nd

2008:
Patsy Points = 66; Patsy Finish = 4
as Juniors (2010): 6-5, 4-2, 2nd

2009:
Patsy Points = 45, Patsy Finish = 5
2010:
Patsy Points = 74, Patsy Finish = 2

(C) The Randolph years: 2007-2010

LAFAYETTE
2007:
Patsy Points = 77; Patsy Finish = 1
as Juniors (2009): 8-3, 4-2, 2nd
as Seniors (2010): 2-9, 1-5, 6th

2008:
Patsy Points = 58; Patsy Finish = 6
as Juniors (2010): 2-9, 1-5, 6th

2009:
Patsy Points = 55, Patsy Finish = 3
2010:
Patsy Points = 60, Patsy Finish = 3

LEHIGH
2007:
Patsy Points = 68; Patsy Finish = 2
as Juniors (2009): 4-7, 4-2, 4th
as Seniors (2010): 10-3, 6-0, 1st

2008:
Patsy Points = 74; Patsy Finish = 2
as Juniors (2010): 10-3, 6-0, 1st

2009:
Patsy Points = 70, Patsy Finish = 1 (Tie)
2010:
Patsy Points = 81, Patsy Finish = 1

[ngineer]

What's it mean Mr. Natural??? (;-)

[TheValleyRaider]

Hard to discern too many trends from a still limited data set, but if I were making bets based on this Lehigh would be the favorite for the next year or two, Holy Cross on the rise again and Lafayette climbing back up in a couple of years

Interesting.... xchinscratchx

[RichH2]

Thanks carney,
will be fun to see whether any trends can be gleaned from this info over the next 4 or 5 years as new classes come in. I doubt anything definitive will develop but hell its fun to win the Patsy race. Not this yr for us , next year for sure.

[carney2]

What's it mean Mr. Natural??? (;-)

Not much. Insufficient data. I tried a simple (all my mind can comprehend) correlation analysis, but with really only one year to correlate (2010, when our first class [2007] made it to their senior year) we end up with a negative correlation. The keys are:

1. The Randolph effect: a poorly rated 2007 recruiting class at Holy Cross (Randolph was not a member of that class, as he red shirted from the year before) produced a number 2 finish, based largely on the skills of QB Dominic Randolph.

and

2. The Pard Implosion: The top rated 2007 recruiting class at Lafayette produced a 2-9, 1-5, 6th place finish. This was, as I recall, a group that for whatever reason experienced an incredibly high attrition rate, carrying many of the higher rated players out the door.

The Committee is not disappointed since this was started as a fun-type exercise to get us through the off-season, and not as an astrological exercise. If you want predictions, get a crystal ball.

[ngineer]

Agreed..It is a nice diversion. And, as Mr. Natural was always wont to say, "Don't mean sheeeet!" :D

(For the 'younger generation, Mr. Natural was a leading character in Zap Comic Books aka "underground" comics that proliferated on college campuses in the early '70's)xreadx

[LU73]

This data would be easier to analyze if you presented it in a spreadsheet. Thank you, sir.

[RichH2]

We should demand that AGS add Excel as an option:). Over the next 3 yrs as classes progress, I am sure a more definitive analysis of Patsy parameters will be possible for those who desire them. For me, while that may be interesting, I am content with the year to year competition. Of course, I am more content when we win xnodx

[carney2]

This data would be easier to analyze if you presented it in a spreadsheet. Thank you, sir.

True, but I do not know of any way to present a spreadsheet via this website. In fact, columnar presentations of any sort are darn near impossible - or, at least they were the last time I tried one.

[CFBfan]

True, but I do not know of any way to present a spreadsheet via this website. In fact, columnar presentations of any sort are darn near impossible - or, at least they were the last time I tried one.

Wow Carney! thank God they pay you well for this!!!

[carney2]

Wow Carney! thank God they pay you well for this!!!

Yes. This is why I get the big bucks.

[Walkon79]

Boy, sombody's got way too much time on his hands :)

[CrusaderBob]

carney,

Was 2007 the first year of the Patsy Rankings or was it started earlier?

[carney2]

carney,

Was 2007 the first year of the Patsy Rankings or was it started earlier?

I have nothing prior to 2007 and I am a pack rat.

[CrusaderBob]

OK. Did a quick analysis of the Patsy Recruiting Rankings (PRR) through the years.

I took the rank (1-7) for each school over the 4 years and came up with the average ranking for each school. That did not predict the final 2010 order of finish too well - as other than Lehigh, everyone else was off by at least 2 spots.

http://s2.excoboard.com/forums/5517/user/33852/517843.jpg


So I came up with a weighted rank. Essentially, we know that in the 2010 season, even an excellent HS class of 2010 will not contribute as much as a very good HS class of 2007, so I weighted each class rank as follows
Seniors (Class ranked in 2007) 4x
Juniors 3x
Sophmores 2x
Freshmen 1x

And this was a bit better at predicting the final outcome as 2 schools finished as predicted, 1 within one spot, and 1 within two spots.

http://s2.excoboard.com/forums/5517/user/33852/517844.jpg


Will add the HS Class of 2011 to the spreadsheet when the 2011 PRR are complete and give a prediction for the 2011 season. Looking at it with 5 of 7 ratings in, I'd say things will tighten up.

Have at it, and make of it what you will, as always keeping it mind this is mostly a fun off-season diversion created by carney to pass time until the games begin, not to actually predict performance - even though I'm gonna use it to do just that! :D

[Lehigh Football Nation]

What's real interesting about this analysis is that based on these numbers, Lehigh had the No. 1 recruiting class of the last four years, hands down - which would seem to reflect itself in the record and the great performance in the playoffs. But even more interestingly, it was the presence of on future NFL player (Will Rackley), who didn't have a star rating, who was a huge part in that success, but didn't give any Patsy rating support. I know for a fact two of the starred recruits for Lehigh came from California and ended up transferring since they were homesick - so they contributed more to the Patsy Rating than Mr. Rackley ever did.

That's the funny part of this ratings game. You can bring in good recruiting classes, but it's usually the presence of some "lightning in a bottle" player that takes an above-average Patsy team and makes them into a championship team. Dom Randolph was a player like that. So was Rob Curley. So was Jordan Scott. All players that didn't contribute much to Patsy ratings. For the 2010 squad, I'd say it was Rackley.

[ngineer]

So many times I've seen kids who come out of high school do so much growing and maturing in the following 2-3 years it's scary, and not something you can predict. And, as you point out, a lot of ballyhooed kids who either lose interest, get hurt or never get better. One really never knows.

[carney2]

All so true. Recruiting at any level is a crap shoot, but at the low end of FCS recruiting it is doubly so. As a matter of clarification, however, neither Dominic Randolph of Holy Cross nor Jordan Scott of Colgate affected his school's Patsy Rating, as each matriculated before the Ratings were created. If, on the other hand, LFN is saying that neither was heavily recruited coming out of high school and would not have affected the Ratings had they existed, I defer to the chief Squawker's long and much appreciated immersion in these matters.

On the other hand, the soon to be NFL drafted Will Rackley of Lehigh contributed zero - count 'em, Z-E-R-O!! - Patsy Points to the brown bunch as he came in the door. Given the rules of the time he did not even contribute a Jumbo point, as he entered at a listed 270 in a year when the Jumbo cutoff was 275.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

If, on the other hand, LFN is saying that neither was heavily recruited coming out of high school and would not have affected the Ratings had they existed, I defer to the chief Squawker's long and much appreciated immersion in these matters.

On the other hand, the soon to be NFL drafted Will Rackley of Lehigh contributed zero - count 'em, Z-E-R-O!! - Patsy Points to the brown bunch as he came in the door. Given the rules of the time he did not even contribute a Jumbo point, as he entered at a listed 270 in a year when the Jumbo cutoff was 275.

Randolph was the backup to Rob Schoenoft out of high school (who went to Ohio State), so I feel it's safe to say that he is a guy that wouldn't have been rated. (Wouldn't he have gotten "trigger points"?) Scott I don't remember, but I do feel it's safe to say that he didn't have anywhere near the sort of hoopla that Eachus provided. Eachus was a three-sport star and was somewhat legendary around the Anthracite area.

The Skelton brothers were also kids who slipped through the cracks, though I think John might have gotten a star since UTEP was sniffing around at one point.

What about Sullivan? I think you might have mentioned that he didn't result in Patsy Points either.

In any case, the point is amply made: Patsy Ratings are for entertainment purposes only. xlolx

[RichH2]

So many factors come into play with any class. One factor that is nearly impossible to quantify in any predictive analysis is coaching. How many and to what extent , if any, will recruits improve over a year , 2 , 3,. Even with excellent coaching what players will plateau, lose interest, get homesick or injured? I was looking at some of the kids from Brallier's class at LU. He went home to be with his girlfriend and is now at Portland. A number of other kids, highly recruited with stars and A-S rankings never made it onto the field. I think in Tobi's class barely 1/2 the recruits lettered. This year's seniors close to 75%. Bob's analysis is telling ,as is LFN's reference to Lehigh's Patsy preeminaence w/o any positive results ( until this past season) . Is it coaching? An inherent flaw in the system? Over expectations for the Patsys?

I love the nature and imprecision of Carney's ratings. Impossible , at FCS level , to really do any better objectively. That very essential uncertainty factor makes the Spring pass much more enjoyably for me. I will deny that I check every few days for the next rating, but I do wish Hoyas would announce

[carney2]

I do wish Hoyas would announce

Buffaloes also on spring break unless, as with Fordham, I've missed something.

[DFW HOYA]

I will deny that I check every few days for the next rating, but I do wish Hoyas would announce

There are 25 players already identified for Georgetown--the final list will arrive in May with a few more kickers and a walk on or two. There are two running backs, one QB, and a mix of other positions. What seems frustrating to a lot of fans is that, in nearly every sport but football, a Georgetown recruiter can walk into a home and the program sells itself. In football, the Patriot League is a non-starter for a lot of recruits and the results are reflective on the recruit lists. If there was any upward momentum for the PL ten years ago, it's long gone now, and the league seems unwilling to do much about it.

As to not posting a list, the answer I've been given in the past that it can't post names due to rules about players not having been accepted and/or enrolled; yet, it seems that almost every other PL school can do this much earlier.

[TheValleyRaider]

Scott I don't remember, but I do feel it's safe to say that he didn't have anywhere near the sort of hoopla that Eachus provided.

What about Sullivan? I think you might have mentioned that he didn't result in Patsy Points either.

Scott began his freshman year (2005) fourth on the depth chart, and only some serious injuries in the first few games led to him even seeing the field up at Dartmouth. IIRC, they didn't even have him profiled in the media guide, so little was expected. He scored a TD on his second carry, and it was off to the races :D

Sullivan was an interesting case, as he had a lot of success in HS at Monroe-Woodbury, but didn't seem to rate too much coming in. Earned a trigger point as a QB recruit, if nothing else. He also started playing as a result of injury (Alex Relph), though Relph was a senior so he may have gotten to the QB spot by next season anyway

But yeah, inexact science....

[RichH2]

PL may indeed be a non starter for some HS seniors but I do not believe that alone is really determinative of recruiting issues. Admittedly PL schools are for many the "safety" for those who cannot quite get into an Ivy. For many others they are the the goal not the also ran. Merit aid will or will not be the deciding factor eventually. Whether need or merit , aid needs to be adequate to support solid classes on an annual basis. PL is in many ways a "tweener" group. All highly nationally ranked academic institutions just a notch below the IL It has been shown that while it is unlikely that any of our football squads will have adequate depth to compete weekly with top CAA or SC schools, we can indeed compete with them. Even with merit aid , we cannot recruit same kids as those schools can. For many years the PL was Holy Cross and the others, then for a while it was Colgate or Lehigh and the others. To my mind the PL has hurt itself competitively with the inability to decide what it wants to be. My sanquine outlook was somewhat tempered by this year's recruiting. While lacking perhaps the glamor of *** recruits, the classes have all been very solid, yeah even Hoyas', more speed and large bodies. PL as a conferene needs to do this every year not just occasionally. The gap now between PL and top FCS leagues is wide and deep as LU found out last year. A gap which can be closed, if not eliminated at least closed, with the commitment to do so

[ngineer]

Yes, the gap will never be eliminated due to the academic standards, but we can certain become more competitive on a regular basis than the occasional upset, as we witnessed in the first round of the playoffs.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

PL may indeed be a non starter for some HS seniors but I do not believe that alone is really determinative of recruiting issues. Admittedly PL schools are for many the "safety" for those who cannot quite get into an Ivy. For many others they are the the goal not the also ran.

I think the difference between the PL and Ivy could become a simple question: which one cares more about football? I'm not saying Lehigh, Lafayette and Colgate need to become Ohio State, but PL schools should be saying "We're every bit as good academically as the Ivies - and we care more about our players. We want to give them a different experience - playing FBS teams, making runs in the FCS playoffs - that Ivy League schools refuse to provide for their football student-athletes." While it won't get everybody, I bet it would sway a significant number.

As always, the question comes back to that of merit aid. Of course, if the question is a free ride at Harvard or pay-to-play at Lehigh, even I have a hard time arguing against that. But if the PL were able to offer some full scholarships, it would put the Lehigh's and Lafayette's on a level playing field with those schools. I think merit aid plays a much, much larger role in Ivy recruiting than anything else.

[DFW HOYA]

As long as PL leadership wants to play caddy to the Ivy League, change is not likely, which is another reason why schools aren't lining up to join.

[RichH2]

Agree LFN & DFW ( geez any more guys with just initial caps and we'll be the Coss board), why would any school want to align with a conference that has no idea what it wants to be.
To me, whether we give merit aid or not the key must be continued adequate funding for football by all schools in PL. I would prefer merit aid as that will ,as LFN noted, level the recruiting field a bit with the Ivies. Either way our schools have to maintain around 60 equivalencies or schollies. The lack of merit aid will make the task much more difficult but still occasionally attainable. MERIT AID , NOT A PANACEA but it will provide the PL with a larger pool of athletes to draw from and more importantly make us distinctive from the Ivies. A great education and scholarships. As Nova, Richmond ,Wofford et al have already shown that ideal is doable.