Patriot League Recruiting - Lehigh

[carney2]

LEHIGH = 43

Although always among the first to announce, Lehigh has consistently set a Patsy Ratings standard that says this is the class to beat. Not this year. This group is well below the levels established by the upperclassmen that they will meet in August. Coach Andy Coen has issued the disclaimer that losing two weeks to the playoff run hurt his recruiting. Maybe… Possibly… Not so much. The Committee does not buy the argument that the loss of two weeks, no matter when they occur, can knock an 8-10 month recruiting effort off a cliff this big. Besides, many (most?) observers would opine that a playoff run would boost, not hinder, recruiting. The brownclads seem set for the 2011 season with a lot of returning talent, but, in the Committee’s opinion, this recruiting class does not add a lot for 2012 and beyond.

The most disturbing thing about this Lehigh recruiting class is that, combined with the already announced class from Lafayette, there appears to be a downturn in Patriot League recruiting - and not all that long ago, these were considered two of the “big kids” in the League. With only 2 of the 7 schools reported it is probably too early to state that a trend has developed, but the results so far indicate that the Patriot League will be even less capable of coping with the OOC portion of its schedule in the not too distant future. It is noted that, like Lafayette, the Lehigh recruiting efforts were geographically much closer to home than in previous years (only 3 of the 26 recruits are not from PA or a contiguous state). This is something the Committee said it would be on the lookout for. Is it an indication of budgetary and related pressures? Your guess is as good as ours. A lot is riding on the yet to be announced classes of the remaining 5 schools.

The good:
- 26 recruits is a solid number.
- Size – This one cuts both ways and you will note that it is also listed under “The Bad” below. On the plus side, the 3 WRs are all over 6 ft. tall, while 4 of the 5 LB recruits appear on paper as if they could share the same wardrobe. They are all in that 6’2’-6’4”, 210-215 “nice” size range for a LB, while the 5th is a 240 lb. monster.
- DB – 3 of the 4 DB recruits are rated. Strangely, however, all 3 are rated as RBs.
- A real nice distribution of recruits, putting bodies in most of the pipelines.

The bad:
- Only one 2-star recruit, unconfirmed. No other recruits with star ratings from any of the three recruiting services.
- Size - 4 OL recruits and 5 for the DL. Only 3 jumbos of the 9 down linemen. Real questions about the ultimate utility of some of the DL recruits.
- QB – Not a “need” for the brown guys, but since this is the position that makes a college football team go, it is one of the first things that the Committee looks at. 2 recruits, 1 rated, no stars. One of the two was also recruited as an “Athlete” and will probably end up at another position. Given the QB talent in the classes in front of him, the other kid is probably going to develop a superior set of clipboard skills. QB recruits are not a real plus for this class.
- RB – 1 recruit, not rated. The faithful feel that the RB position is in good shape. The Committee, on the other hand, feels that it’s been a long time since a defensive coordinator lost any sleep over the Lehigh running game. That was more or less OK in the days of Air Lehigh, but with Andy Coen advocating a balanced attack, the Committee thinks that more is needed to support some decent QB-WR talent in the upper classes.
- WR – None of the skyscraper WRs are rated.
- K – With the primary FG kicker graduated it is not obvious that his replacement is in house with the lone unrated K recruit.

QUALITY = 15: 11 Rated recruits; one 2-star, unconfirmed; no other recruits with star ratings from any of the three recruiting services. All recruits Rated but not starred by ESPN received the minimum score of 40. With 11 Rated, 15 is not a good total for Quality.

CLASS SIZE = 5: 26 recruits.

DISTRIBUTION = 8: Reminder: TE has been eliminated from the ratings.

SPEED = 5: A strange assortment of rated players featuring predominantly non-skilled recruits meant even fewer than normal speed points. Without quitting day jobs and making this a life’s work, the Committee does not know how to improve this category.

TRIGGER = 0: 2 QB recruits, 1 rated, no stars.

JUMBO = 3: Very disappointing considering there are 9 down lineman recruits.

NEEDS = 7:
OL = 2 (of 5): 4 recruits, 2 jumbos, 1 rated. The two non-jumbos are only slightly under the 270 cutoff, but even with college cheeseburgers and weight training it is unlikely they will reach full dozerhood. The Committee likes the numbers, but neither the size nor the unrated credentials is impressive.
LB = 3 (of 4): 5 recruits, decent size, 2 rated, no stars. An impressive group. The Committee debated awarding all 4 Patsy Points, but decided on 3 because both ratings are minimal.
DL = 2 (of 3): 5 recruits, 1 jumbo, 4 rated, 1 an unconfirmed 2-star. The Committee likes the numbers but is unimpressed with the size. You have to ask how much of a contribution a 225 or 230 or even 240 lb. DL will make in his four years. The debate between 1 point and 2 was decided by the ratings. 4 rated is outstanding.

THE COMMITTEE'S ADJUSTMENTS = 0

THE RATINGS RACE with 5 to go:

54 Lafayette
43 Lehigh

[RichH2]

Gosh you really wanted to get this one outxbawlingx.

No real argument with rating for this class. Heck you cant win the patsy every year.

I like this class. Overall tall and athletic. Would have liked more OL with a bit more heft. As I recall some of those that we offered went to Pards and Hoyasxnonono2x.

Overall level of PL recruiting, does not seem to be lower. If annything GU and BU are much improved even if Lehigh is not.

Looking at IL lists there still is a huge chasm between PL and IL. A Patsy rating on one of H-Y-P reruit classes would I fear eclipse all of us. Likewise with the CAA.

That said it does seem that the coaches have more funds this year at LC,BU and GU.
Gate as always.LU not sure but not lower.Cross , no idea, altho Gilmore does seem to be bringing in a pretty good bunch

[carney2]

Gosh you really wanted to get this one outxbawlingx.

No real argument with rating for this class. Heck you cant win the patsy every year.

I like this class. Overall tall and athletic. Would have liked more OL with a bit more heft. As I recall some of those that we offered went to Pards and Hoyasxnonono2x.

Overall level of PL recruiting, does not seem to be lower. If annything GU and BU are much improved even if Lehigh is not.

Looking at IL lists there still is a huge chasm between PL and IL. A Patsy rating on one of H-Y-P reruit classes would I fear eclipse all of us. Likewise with the CAA.

That said it does seem that the coaches have more funds this year at LC,BU and GU.
Gate as always.LU not sure but not lower.Cross , no idea, altho Gilmore does seem to be bringing in a pretty good bunch

I am eagerly awaiting the others - Colgate and Bucknell in particular.

As for "quick" posting, it was a Friday and somehow it all just came together. I don't expect this kind of turnaround very often.

[breezy]

I hope I can make this point without making it seem that I am denigrating the Patsy Ratings or carney2's extensive work in producing them for us.

I believe I read on another thread that the defection of 2* LB James Coscia from Lehigh to Lafayette represented a "swing" of about 10 points. (As I understand the ratings, a 2* recruit is worth 5 or more points, and Coscia's speed would have been worth about another 3 points, so that made sense to me.)

That means, to me, that if Coscia had stayed with Lehigh, the current ratings would have been about reversed. Instead of Lehigh being 11 points below Lafayette, it would have been 9 or 10 points above Lafayette; Lehigh would have been in the 50s and Lafayette in the 40s.

I just wonder at the ability of one recruit to have that much of an impact on the ratings. The classes are 28 and 26 players in size, yet one person can dramatically change the outcome based on that person's choice of one school over the other. It just seems a bit odd to me.

As an aside, I expect that both Georgetown and Colgate will end up with ratings above Lafayette. Barring any last minute changes, both have at least 2 or 3 2* recruits in their class. I do not have enough information about Bucknell's class, but I am very interested to see how the new coaching staff makes out. Bucknell has seemed to be very active in pursuing recruits. As for my Holy Cross team, there is only one 2* recruit known thus far, although several recruits are not yet identified, so I expect HC will be around Lafayette's level. Based on my calculations, HC should have at least 8 or 9 speed points.

[carney2]

I hope I can make this point without making it seem that I am denigrating the Patsy Ratings or carney2's extensive work in producing them for us.

I believe I read on another thread that the defection of 2* LB James Coscia from Lehigh to Lafayette represented a "swing" of about 10 points. (As I understand the ratings, a 2* recruit is worth 5 or more points, and Coscia's speed would have been worth about another 3 points, so that made sense to me.)

That means, to me, that if Coscia had stayed with Lehigh, the current ratings would have been about reversed. Instead of Lehigh being 11 points below Lafayette, it would have been 9 or 10 points above Lafayette; Lehigh would have been in the 50s and Lafayette in the 40s.

I just wonder at the ability of one recruit to have that much of an impact on the ratings. The classes are 28 and 26 players in size, yet one person can dramatically change the outcome based on that person's choice of one school over the other. It just seems a bit odd to me.

As an aside, I expect that both Georgetown and Colgate will end up with ratings above Lafayette. Barring any last minute changes, both have at least 2 or 3 2* recruits in their class. I do not have enough information about Bucknell's class, but I am very interested to see how the new coaching staff makes out. Bucknell has seemed to be very active in pursuing recruits. As for my Holy Cross team, there is only one 2* recruit known thus far, although several recruits are not yet identified, so I expect HC will be around Lafayette's level. Based on my calculations, HC should have at least 8 or 9 speed points.

Thanks for the input and, no, you are denigrating neither me nor the rating system. You are merely pointing out one of its many failings. For the record and repeating myself from other years:

Everyone, and particularly me who has to live with and roll around in the details, recognizes that the Patsy Ratings are flawed. It's not great. It's not even good. It is, unfortunately, the best we have.

I could detail its failings, but It has been done before and I leave that to others. Instead, I will point out the positives:

As I stated, it's the best we have at the moment. in fact, it's all we have.

The intention when it was created was to make it as objective as possible. Although not 100% objective I contend that you, me, Fr. McFarland, or Dan Weiss could prepare this and, if properly applying the stated methodology would achieve the exact same results in everything except "Needs" and "Committee Adjustments." If we differed by even one Patsy Point someone made a mistake.

It has not proven good at, nor was it intended to be good at, predicting yearly standings, players of the year, etc. Seeing it in action for, what...5 years now, however, I think it is doing a decent job predicting long term trends.

The intention has always been to have some offseason fun, to generate some interest in the other guy's recruiting - the League recruiting - and to, perhaps, have the faithful take a step back and examine what's going on before letting out a knee jerk "good group" to agree with the head coach. It isn't always a "good group," and maybe we need to take down the "Football God" sign from the coach's office door every once in a while and hold his feet to the fire.

As for Coscia switching his choice from Lehigh to Lafayette at the last minute, the final point swing, now that I have finished the Lehigh writeup is 17 (+8 for Lafayette; -9 for Lehigh). Is that too much for one recruit? Yes it is, but the "quality" portion of the Patsy Ratings is key to the system. Probably the single most important item in the overall Patsy Ratings formula is the belief that if someone else of significance wanted a specific recruit, then he is probably worth something - and, I guess, vice versa. A few years ago Georgetown recruited a whole flock of 2-star QBs which piled up quality points, trigger points and needs points to such a total that the Hoyas came in at or near the top. Overall, however, they had a same old, same old Georgetown recruiting class. The admittedly subjective Committee's Adjustments section was implemented the next year to help guard against this sort of thing. If we do this again next year, who knows, there may be a revision or two to reduce the number of points doled out for star ratings.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Chalk up "Coscia-gate" as another data point for the Committee to consider next year. I'm not upset with the Patsy rating for Lehigh: as carney often says, it is what it is and (like all recruiting systems) are completely subjective. Had the Patsy Ratings been right, we would have never seen a Holy Cross Patriot League championship in 2009, but the emergence of an unrated QB to become a guy who would break every significant PL passing record changed everything.

Another thing I've been thinking about is attrition in these classes, when comparing previous years. Two Lehigh classes were bolstered by two-star Rivals players from California - both of whom left the team, homesick. It would be interesting to see any adjustments to the old ratings as a result of retention - but then again, it's hard to judge what is removable. What if a guy got injured (RB Jaren Walker)?

Also, what about JuCos? Fordham (who, incidentally carney, announced their class as well) has one or two this year, and had tow or three last year. Are they included? I forget.

[DFW HOYA]

A few years ago Georgetown recruited a whole flock of 2-star QBs which piled up quality points, trigger points and needs points to such a total that the Hoyas came in at or near the top. Overall, however, they had a same old, same old Georgetown recruiting class.

OK, so seven QB's wasn't a great idea. But whether you've got four two-star recruits or not, Georgetown has more recruits that have to pay their way than any playoff eligible team in the nation. When message boards talk about single digit equivalencies for Georgetown, divide that by four and ask yourself how you ever build a recruiting class from that. Ask Coen, Tavani, Biddle, any of them: if Georgetown had comparable resources, they would outrecruit anyone in the PL. But they don't and every competing coach knows it.

As for those ranked players from 2008...

1. Rick Rattay (RB): Injured much of his first two years, did not return in 2010.
2. Chris Bisanzo (OL): Injured as a sophomore, did not return in 2010.
3. Tucker Stafford (QB): Could have been the biggest Georgetown QB in 20 years--this kid was a legitimate All-American prospect. Two plays into his first game, he busts his throwing hand. Hasn't played QB since.
4. James Brady (QB): Started 11 games, than quits the team when benched in the last two minutes in a 28-3 loss to Lafayette. Now at UNH.

A fifth player had some rankings as well, RB Keion Wade, except Wade transferred to a JC program.

[carney2]

Another thing I've been thinking about is attrition in these classes, when comparing previous years. Two Lehigh classes were bolstered by two-star Rivals players from California - both of whom left the team, homesick. It would be interesting to see any adjustments to the old ratings as a result of retention - but then again, it's hard to judge what is removable. What if a guy got injured (RB Jaren Walker)?

Also, what about JuCos? Fordham (who, incidentally carney, announced their class as well) has one or two this year, and had tow or three last year. Are they included? I forget.

The attrition/retention issue needs to be addressed in some sort of a retrospective analysis. Later. Soon. Maybe.

Fordham became the unfathomable last year with all the transfers. The Patsy Ratings were created to cope with traditional Patriot League straight-from-high school recruiting. Transfers have never been included. I am girding for another "unratable" for Fordham this year.

[ngineer]

Okay. After the 7-peat, Leotards will win in 2014. (;-)

[carney2]

One last thought on Coscia-gate as LFN has christened the switch of allegiances of a 2-star recruit from Lehigh to Lafayette and its resultant swing in Patsy Points: Perhaps, just perhaps, this "problem" is magnified by the relatively poor recruiting. If these schools had three or four 2-stars and a reasonable collection of 1-stars instead of merely "rated," this would not be such a big deal. The only solution appears to be reducing the point distribution for quality. The Committee is hearing, but not loving, the idea.

[breezy]

Just two comments on carney's responses.

1. Yes, there is merit to the idea that the quality of an overall class is heavily dependent on the handful of recruits that might be considered "difference makers." As I have commented previously, these "difference makers" may be the highly rated recruits (but they could also be the late-blooming unrated recruits). Whether and to what extent the top 7 or 8 recruits in a class fulfill their potential and become stars (PL first team, etc.) will often be the difference between a good recruiting year (everyone has good recruiting years -- if you don't believe me, just ask the coaches) and a great recruiting year.

2. Yahoo/Rivals has not had a 1* rating for the past several years to the best of my recollection. Scout.com this year seems to have abandoned the 1* rating. In both instances, a recruit is either Not Rated ("NR") or is 2* or above. ESPN is the only rating service that continues to use a 1* rating. It is quite possible (but there is no way to be sure) that some recruits that are NR this year might have been 1* on Scout.com in past years. The end result of this change could be to lower everyone's total score.

[RichH2]

Since Patsys are based in large part on ratings from the various services out there, it makes little sense to me to downgrade quaity points as a factor. Sure I wish Lehigh had more ** recruits but the lack of them s/n warrant a change in the system. It may be more accurate to devise a way of including in quality rating recruits with A-S credentials. I realize that this ould not be easy s many states have an A_S team for each level , ie NJ has 5 Ohoi 6 etc etc ,maxpreps has A-S lists as does AP. Then each level has 1-3 teams and hon.mentions. Also, should a kid who is A-S in the lowest level rate the same as one who is A-S in a larger division. Complicated but might shore up the quality factor