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carney2
February 5th, 2011, 02:45 PM
Here we go again. Hopefully, each year gets a little better, whatever that means. For newcomers, and those who have forgotten (which would be all of you), the Committee feels obligated to explain the rules. This long-winded explanation is appended to this, the first, ratings of the year, and will not be repeated. The actual ratings for the first team to announce are included as the third post of this thread.

There are three changes in methodology from 2010:

1. The ESPN online recruiting ratings have been added to Rivals and Scout. With three services now included, the Committee anticipates that overall ratings will be slightly higher than in previous years when only two were used. This will, of course, make year-to-year comparisons a little more difficult.
2. “Confirmation” (receiving equal – and they must be equal – star ratings – and they must be stars, not merely Rated - from multiple recruiting services) will be deemed to have been accomplished if two of the three services agree.
3. Tight end has been eliminated from the Distribution evaluation. Frankly, the position is limping toward dinosaur status and many teams no longer use or recruit one. Total available Distribution points will therefore be reduced from 9 to 8.

A (large) number of you say that this exercise is bogus and that we won’t know about these recruits until we’ve seen them play and have a career. Who can argue with that logic? Still, the Committee has three things to say in that regard:

1. In a presidential election, some folks say that polling is ridiculous. Their logic is “we’ll know who won after it’s over.” Still, the polling continues, and the vast majority of Americans get caught up in it.
2. The Committee invites the folks with this argument to create a system that rates a team’s seniors after they have played their last game. It would be interesting and would create some controversy. It would not however, address the question in the here and now as to how the team’s recruiting is going and what we might expect in the future.
3. The Committee readily admits that its methodology is flawed. It could, in fact, compose a treatise as long as this post detailing the problems. It invites someone – anyone – to come up with something better. Please!

Oh yeah, one more thing, don’t take any of this too seriously. It’s a last stab at some football FUN before we continue the long off-season doldrums.





The Patsy Ratings
(Patriot League Football Recruiting)


METHODOLGY

QUALITY: The Committee wouldn’t know a “quality” high school recruit if they tripped over him while he was wearing a name tag. They therefore have chosen to consult the “experts.” Every recruit is run thru Rivals.com, Scout.com, and ESPN who maintain data bases for football recruits. None are perfect and there are “holes” in all of the data bases. The theory is that the recruiting services keep track of kids who have established a recruiting persona - in other words those recruits with multiple suitors. To put it another way, if (almost) no one else wanted this recruit, can he truly be labeled as “quality?”

Each of the data bases uses a “star” system to rate recruits. Beyond that, they separate the better recruits and rate them with a star system. Five stars is the highest rating and denotes recruits you will eventually find on the rosters at big time FBS schools. Patriot League schools will get many players with one star ratings and an occasional two star recruit, seldom more. Scout simply uses the 5-star system and does not list recruits who generated interest but who do not merit a star.

One Patsy Point is awarded for each recruit included in any of the data base, but who did not receive any stars. Two additional points are awarded for each star in a recruit’s rating. In other words, a Rivals one-star recruit earns 3 points (1 for being in the data base + 2 more for the star) for his chosen school. If there is a difference between the recruiting service ratings, the higher rating is used to assign Patsy Points. The term “rated” refers to any recruit who was included in any of the data bases.

One additional Patsy Point is awarded to each recruit who is “confirmed.” It is rare that a recruit gets an equal (starred) rating by each of the recruiting services. When this happens, the Committee deems that the recruit has not gotten “lucky” or otherwise “snuck by one of the recruiting service’s screening systems, but has been independently confirmed in his quality ranking. The point is awarded for “confirmation” by two of the three services.

(NOTE – There are other recruiting systems. The committee was either unable to find access, too lazy, and/or too cheap to pay for them.)

CLASS SIZE: Football is a physical game; a game of attrition. In addition, not all of these recruits are going to be up to the challenge of playing D-I football in a demanding academic environment. Some will get homesick, or will dislike their roommate or position coach, or their girlfriend back home will call to say that she’s pregnant. Males in this age group are among the most unpredictable and irrational creatures on the planet. In any event, quantity is, in many respects, almost as important as quality in the Patriot League recruiting process. Unlike many of the large state universities that have become FCS powerhouses, the Patriot League does not make a living off FBS transfers. The overwhelming majority of the League’s key performers are high school recruits that have never attended another college.

It is arbitrary we admit, but the Committee has determined that a bare subsistence recruiting class should number 18. If you multiply this number by 4 years you get 72, which gives you three deep plus some leftovers for kickers, kick returners, “athletes,” etc. Most Patriot League preseason rosters number in the 90+ range, so this should not be a problem. We awarded 2 Patsy Points for reaching a class size of 18 and awarded an additional point for every three recruits above that number. For example, a recruiting class of 23 would yield 4 Patsy Points for that school – 2 for reaching 18 + 1 more for numbers 19 thru 21 + 1 more for numbers 22 and 23. There is, therefore, no difference between 22 and 23 – the point is awarded either way.

(CONTINUED IN THE SECOND POST OF THIS THREAD)

carney2
February 5th, 2011, 02:45 PM
(CONTINUED FROM THE FIRST POST OF THIS THREAD)

DISTRIBUTION: You need to keep the pipeline filled at each position. We therefore award 1 Patsy Point for each of the following positions where the team has at least one recruit: QB, RB, WR, OL, DL, LB, DB, and K/P. That is a maximum of 8 points. You can argue that Team X doesn’t need a kicker because last year’s freshman was great, or that Team Y already has 4 quarterbacks and doesn’t need one this year. You can argue, but...

SPEED: This one is really difficult, but since “speed kills," it needs to be considered. Times for the 40 are not tattooed on a recruit’s forehead and are rarely included in the college’s press release. The rating services will frequently (but not always) include this information for players in their data base. Other than that it is a matter of getting lucky with online resources. Freely admitting that we will most certainly miss a “burner” or two, or three, we award the Patsy Points for speed as follows: 4.8 – 4.701 = 1 point; 4.7 – 4.601 = 2 points; 4.6 – 4.501 = 3 points; etc.

TRIGGER: Quarterback is the most important position on any college football team. We have therefore determined that demonstrably superior quarterback recruits should earn additional Patsy Points for their schools. We have again used the recruiting services determine “superior,” and if you view this as merely a way to award additional Quality points, you are correct. We award one point for each star assigned by either rating service to a QB recruit. Again, we use the higher rating of the two systems in each case. For instance, a recruit that is 2-star rated by ESPN will earn 2 Patsy points for his school. (Please note that a QB who is merely mentioned by Rivals, but earns no stars in either rating system earns no additional Patsy “trigger” points.)

JUMBO: Size matters. Since Patriot League teams are not stealing skill position recruits from LSU or Ohio State (the kind of guys who could make a difference despite what is going on in the lines) our assumption is that, for the time being, line play – and the size of the people making that play – is critical. We therefore assign 1 Patsy point for each OL recruit of 270 pounds or more and 1 point for each DL recruit of 250 pounds or more.

NEEDS: The most subjective and controversial area in the Patsy Ratings is an attempt to answer the question “Did this program meet its recruiting needs?” Recently the usual list of suspects on the Any Given Saturday board was asked to state and prioritize the recruiting needs for their school. They were requested to distinguish between needs for the upcoming season where freshmen would normally not be expected to contribute vs. needs for future years when these recruits will be in the two deep. The responses have been massaged into a prioritized list of each team’s three (3) greatest recruiting needs.* Patsy Points are awarded as follows:

Meeting need no. 1: 5 points
Meeting need no. 2: 4 points
Meeting need no. 3: 3 points

That’s a total of 12 potential points, but they will not be doled out on an all or nothing basis. They will be subjectively (that word again) graded. For instance, a team whose number 1 need is offensive line lists 6 recruits at this position but none are rated, and only one weighs 270 or more will almost certainly not receive all of the 5 potential points for meeting their number 1 need.

*Excluding kickers. The Committee’s opinion is that if one of your school’s greatest needs is a kicker, you’re in fantastic shape.

(EVEN MORE) SUBJECTIVITY. The Committee reserves the right to add/subtract Patsy Points as the situation warrants to preserve fairness and avoid an injustice.

SMILE. It’s all about fun, bragging rights, and picking a (verbal) fight among friendly competitors. We all know that All League teams of the future will be peppered with kids that were completely overlooked by the Patsy Committee, but who worked their tails off and were the recipients of good coaching and good training. Anyone who says that this is crap because “nobody really knows,” is taking this way too seriously.

carney2
February 5th, 2011, 02:52 PM
DISCLAIMER: Every attempt is made to maintain objectivity, but the Committee has strong connections to Lafayette College and you should be aware of that fact.

LAFAYETTE = 54

There is a mood of smug satisfaction on College Hill following the announcement of this recruiting class. There isn’t much that the faithful are not proclaiming “great,” “best ever,” and so forth. The Committee does not agree. In our opinion this was a do or die class for the Pards, and they just did not “do” as much as they needed. They needed to build on last year’s modest gains by having an obviously superior group that includes addressing major problems.

The good:
- The Pards addressed a screaming need at QB with two recruits. They may have hit the jackpot…or not. Check the Needs section below for details. This is an interesting situation that will take a few years to play out.
- Tavani recruited quantity and quantity for his OL. Quantity = 6 recruits. Quantity = size, with 100% jumbos averaging 285 – and that’s before college cheeseburgers and weight rooms.
- There is serious up side potential for one or two of the LB recruits.
- 28 recruits.

The bad:
- Only two 2-star recruits, same as last year. Neither confirmed.
- Ten rated recruits, slightly better than 2010, but with an additional rating service this year (we now use 3 rating services, just in case you haven’t waded thru the methodology) the Committee expects this number to be higher. Adjusting the additional rating service (ESPN) out of the numbers, there are only 7 rated, one fewer than last year.
- Of the 6 recruits rated by ESPN only one rated better than a fog-a-mirror 40 in their scoring system.
- The DL recruits are small – no jumbos, and averaging only 226. (See Needs below.)
- In the Committee’s opinion, a Frank Tavani offensive mindset requires a baby bull back; someone who can move the pile (calm down; it’s a figure of speech). The Pards got only 1 RB and no one is describing him as a baby bull. Some of the faithful have peeked at the 3 plays on his posted recruiting video and, if not declaring him the second coming of Gayle Sayers, are moving in that direction. One zealous questioner in Coach Tavani’s signing day chat room asked if this is the next great Lafayette running back. The questioner must have been the kid’s mother because the Committee cannot get past these two facts: (1) he is a clone of what they already have and not an upgrade; and (2) none of the rating services even recognized that the kid exists.
- This is the lowest total award of Patsy Points for Lafayette in the history of the ratings.

One final note: the Committee notes that although there are a smattering of recruits from far away places, this group has a decided home grown look to it. Rumors have some of the other Patriot League schools also doing most of their recruiting close to home. If true, budgetary restraints are the suspected cause. Is this a sign that League recruiting overall has taken a downturn? Who knows, but if it is, a football version of the law of relativity may make this class better than it now appears. The curse of being first is that there are no comparables.

QUALITY = 20: Two 2-stars; one 1-star; 10 rated.


CLASS SIZE = 6: 28 recruits. Tavani stated in his signing day chat room that the powers that be have green lighted a climb to the required number of equivalencies to schedule FBS “money” games.

DISTRIBUTION = 8: All the bases were covered. (Note: TE has been eliminated from this measurement.)

SPEED = 8: The usual disclaimer that this information is hard to come by, and the Committee freely admits that it probably missed much, if not most, of it.

TRIGGER = 1: Two QB recruits, but only one star.

JUMBO = 6: All of the OL recruits exceed the jumbo cutoff (270), but none of the DL recruits make the cut.

NEEDS = 5

QB = 3 (of 5): The 1-star recruit appears, on paper (that’s all we have, folks), to be an upgrade from what the Leopards put on the field in 2010. The more intriguing of the two recruits – in fact, the most intriguing of this entire class – is the other kid who received a rating with no stars from only one recruiting service. He had a solid junior year, but was injured for much of his senior campaign and apparently fell off recruiting radars. FBS schools steered clear, and FCS schools, apparently assuming that he was an FBS recruit, also ignored him. With only 10 days to go Lafayette became aware of the situation and put on a full court press. The Committee deems it a 50/50 bet as to whether the Pards met their need for a top QB recruit. That means 2 vs. 3 Patsy Points. That part of the decision came down to the fact that both recruits played at big time high school football schools vs. Tavani’s checkered history of handling QBs. This is about recruiting so the high school background won out.

DL = 0 (of 4): 4 recruits; no jumbos; none rated. Two of the recruits weigh in at 215, and one has to question whether they will ever see playing time. DC, John Loose may be able to squeeze a DE out of the other two, but there is no run stopping guy for the middle.

OL = 2 (of 3): 6 recruits; all jumbos; 2 rated; no stars. The troubling aspect here is the lack of credentials; the lack of respect from the rating services. On the other hand, after an inexplicable void at OL, the pipeline is filling up.

THE COMMITTEE’S ADJUSTMENTS = 0

ngineer
February 5th, 2011, 10:14 PM
Quite a thorough review, Carney. One question at the moment, though, doesn't Lafayette lose their PK of several years? What's the word on the kicking game. The punting was also quite wanting from what I saw. A key area of the game.

Bogus Megapardus
February 5th, 2011, 10:21 PM
Quite a thorough review, Carney. One question at the moment, though, doesn't Lafayette lose their PK of several years? What's the word on the kicking game. The punting was also quite wanting from what I saw. A key area of the game.

All-PL first team Davis Rodriguez is graduating. We Just signed a kid who turned down a full ride from Temple to come to College Hill. He kicks every ball into the endzone and supposedly has a 44 yd net punting average or something, too. Rodriguez played as a freshman and started all four years. He joins a total of four other K/P already on the squad, so we're probably OK there.

ngineer
February 5th, 2011, 10:32 PM
That's good news for the 'pards if he pans out. A good punter can have a major impact on field position. We have Smith back for one more year. He's been excellent in postitional punting. I'm hoping we can keep consistent there.

RichH2
February 6th, 2011, 09:35 AM
qb and OL I think are superb for Pards. Surely your biggest needs. Agree class may not be quite up to last yr but not bad. As every year , I want to thank you for all the hard work in running the Patsy's xhurrayxxhurrayxxhurrayx Carries us all until Spring prctice.

Tribe4SF
February 6th, 2011, 11:13 AM
While I've taken my fair share of shots at the Patsy Ratings over the years, the fact that they survive, and garner interest means they've become a winter institution. I hereby acknowledge Carney as a leader in recruiting analysis, and give my full support the rating system.xpeacex

I've even applied the system to our W&M class. While it's a bit challenging because we don't know all our walk-ons (they are not included in the signing day lists for schools who give scholarships), I know how many we're getting, and have information on enough of them to do a fairly complete job. We knew we had a good class, and the Patsy system confirms it with an early score of 108! This will probably go up some as we get specifics on more walk-ons.

carney2
February 6th, 2011, 12:10 PM
All-PL first team Davis Rodriguez is graduating. We Just signed a kid who turned down a full ride from Temple to come to College Hill. He kicks every ball into the endzone and supposedly has a 44 yd net punting average or something, too. Rodriguez played as a freshman and started all four years. He joins a total of four other K/P already on the squad, so we're probably OK there.

Also, junior 1-star recruit Ethan Swerdow is on the roster. He did not see much time so far with seniors Rodriguez and Kondash in front of him.

carney2
February 6th, 2011, 12:26 PM
While I've taken my fair share of shots at the Patsy Ratings over the years, the fact that they survive, and garner interest means they've become a winter institution. I hereby acknowledge Carney as a leader in recruiting analysis, and give my full support the rating system.xpeacex

I've even applied the system to our W&M class. While it's a bit challenging because we don't know all our walk-ons (they are not included in the signing day lists for schools who give scholarships), I know how many we're getting, and have information on enough of them to do a fairly complete job. We knew we had a good class, and the Patsy system confirms it with an early score of 108! This will probably go up some as we get specifics on more walk-ons.

Thanks, and good luck. After wrestling with Fordham last year I've got reservations as to whether this system works well with scholarship programs. I guess if you have a limited number of transfers it might be OK.

Tribe4SF
February 6th, 2011, 01:25 PM
Thanks, and good luck. After wrestling with Fordham last year I've got reservations as to whether this system works well with scholarship programs. I guess if you have a limited number of transfers it might be OK.

I had fun with it. We don't get many transfers at W&M, so that's not a big obstacle. The primary hurdle is walk-ons, and the fact that schools don't release their names until they enroll. Generally know alot of them, but when the media guides come out in July is when they are all known. If you just go off signing day lists, most scholarship programs would be punished for having small classes, and there would be alot of other missing points for star ratings, jumbo and speed.

RichH2
February 6th, 2011, 04:32 PM
Tribe, certainly possible that CAA walk ons may have more impact than those in PL but our announced classes do not include walkons even recruited ones. Altho distinction may be more symbolic than real w/o merit aid. Treated with the proper respect and large doses of good humor the Patsys are great fun .

Bogus Megapardus
February 6th, 2011, 04:59 PM
Still xmadx that the committee unreasonably fails to display any home-field bias whatsoever.

breezy
February 6th, 2011, 05:22 PM
Bogie --

Not to worry. I'm sure the future rankings for other teams will also fall short of expectations.

Also, the Committee has gone to great lengths to point out the shortcomings of the current system, since it is largely based on recruiting services that give little or no respect to FCS teams. Following the recruiting season this year, it has been interesting that some players listed by the recruiting sites at the 2* level have largely been ignored, while other unrated and unlisted recruits have been vigorously contested.

I believe strongly that many of the unlisted or unrated recruits will perform very well. Case in point -- the recruiting class for Holy Cross last year. It was highly praised by the Committee and awarded a score of 74 largely based on the presence of several 2* recruits. Now, I feel confident that these highly-touted recruits will get their chance to contribute in the future. But in their freshman year, two or three unrated recruits got more playing time than most of the higher rated recruits. One unrated recruit even made his way into the starting line-up.

carney2
February 6th, 2011, 07:02 PM
Still xmadx that the committee unreasonably fails to display any home-field bias whatsoever.

"Home field bias" must be earned.

Andy
February 6th, 2011, 09:52 PM
Bogie --

Not to worry. I'm sure the future rankings for other teams will also fall short of expectations.

Also, the Committee has gone to great lengths to point out the shortcomings of the current system, since it is largely based on recruiting services that give little or no respect to FCS teams. Following the recruiting season this year, it has been interesting that some players listed by the recruiting sites at the 2* level have largely been ignored, while other unrated and unlisted recruits have been vigorously contested.

I believe strongly that many of the unlisted or unrated recruits will perform very well. Case in point -- the recruiting class for Holy Cross last year. It was highly praised by the Committee and awarded a score of 74 largely based on the presence of several 2* recruits. Now, I feel confident that these highly-touted recruits will get their chance to contribute in the future. But in their freshman year, two or three unrated recruits got more playing time than most of the higher rated recruits. One unrated recruit even made his way into the starting line-up.

A former unrated Lafayette recruit is now in his fourth NFL season. :-)

Thanks for the effort, c2. 54........?!