bigCasu
December 9th, 2010, 01:35 PM
Here we go with the Quarterfinals:
Villanova (8-4) @ #1 Appalachian State (10-2)
Time: Noon
TV: ESPN
Stadium: Kidd Brewer Stadium
Surface: Fieldturf
Capacity: 21,650
Jeff Sagarin Ratings:
ASU: 71.26
VU: 71.05
Home advantage: 2.87 points
Appalachian is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 3 points (rounded).
Series: First meeting
Last Meeting: n/a
After winning a national championship, a team will get the best shot from all of their opponents the following season. Everyone wants to be the team that knocks out the defending champion from the previous season. The only team in the last four playoffs to be involved in such a game is Appalachian State. In 2006 and 2007, eight different teams tried, and failed to dethrone Appalachian State. In 2008, Richmond was able to break through and snap the Appalachian streak of 13 consecutive playoff victories. Last season, Appalachian got revenge on Richmond, who won the 2008 title, and went on the road and beat the defending champs. On Saturday, Appalachian will have an opportunity to defeat the 2009 defending champion Villanova. Three classes of Appalachian players and several coaches know what it is like to play in a game of this magnitude, which has become an annual occasion. Villanova players and coaches have only experienced one such game, in their win over Stephen F. Austin last weekend. The closer the playoffs get to crowning a national champion, the closer the talent level of the teams become, and the intangibles, like experience, play a much bigger factor. Just like last year, and a season before, a matchup of national powers will come to fruition in the playoffs in what promises to be a game for the ages.
A couple months, even a couple weeks ago, the chances of Villanova advancing to the quarterfinals would have been considered a stretch. The Wildcats best player Matt Szczur was injured against Penn, suffering from a couple high ankle sprains, and missed six games. During that six game span, Villanova lost two tough games to Rhode Island and New Hampshire at the wrong time of the season. Entering the final game, Villanova was 6-4, facing the top ranked team in the country in Delaware on the road, and were sitting squarely on the playoff bubble. The overtime victory over the Blue Hens most likely put Villanova in the playoff field, but their punishment included going on the road for the first round, and being matched against the top seed Appalachian should they advance.
Having Matt Szczur return to the lineup was huge for Villanova. It was easy to see in the national championship game last season that he was the question that Montana did not have an answer for, no matter where he lined up on the field. Villanova does a great job of putting Szczur in places where he can take advantage of his athletic ability, much like Appalachian has done this season with Travaris Cadet. In the game against Stephen F. Austin, Szczur had twenty touches. Eleven catches for 128 yards and a touchdown and nine rushes for 68 yards. The touchdown catch went for 51 yards and one of rushes went for 37 yards. Forty five percent of his total offense came on two plays. Keeping Szczur in check is a must for the Mountaineers. Szczur had ten other catches, and most of them were underneath drag routes in front of the linebackers or situations where he was the second receiver off the line in a two receiver stack. Villanova used the receiver who lined up in front of Szczur, almost like a pick. Whenever he caught a ball, there was not a defender in sight, and he was able to turn four yard routes into eight yard gains. On almost all of his rushing attempts, Szczur lined up as a wildcat quarterback and simply ran off the guard or to the strong side of the formation, whether that was by tight end or wingback, and to the left side of the line. On a few plays, Szczur was used a decoy, usually put in motion before the snap, on reverses or sweeps. Although twenty touches is a lot, the Szczur factor is in effect for almost every play, similar to how the New Orleans Saints use Reggie Bush. His presence on the field is enough to make any defense think twice.
When Szczur was not in on a play, Villanova depended several times on Chris Whitney, their senior quarterback. Whitney does not have a very accurate long ball, as he only completed three passes over 10 yards against S.F. Austin, but he does have great touch on his short routes, and great chemistry with Szczur. Whitney is a guy who will also never back down from a challenge, and several times he ran designed quarterback sweeps. The Lumberjack defense was able to sniff those plays out, and rarely did they go for a lot of yardage, but it will certainly be something the Mountaineers will see on Saturday. The best way to get pressure on Whitney was with middle blitzes or stunts from the defensive line. Whitney looked very uncomfortable with defenders in his face and was sacked several times. If pressure comes from the ends and there is no containment to the sidelines, Whitney can scramble well and is a load to bring down as he looks like a fullback in the open field. Whitney has 551 yards and ten touchdowns rushing on the season.
With each progressing week, the Appalachian defense has improved exponentially. Take away the Florida game, Appalachian has held several opponents, including playoff quarterfinalists Wofford and Georgia Southern well below their rushing averages, at an average of 53 yards per game. If Appalachian can hold the 22nd ranked rushing attack to similar numbers, which would be under 140 yards, their chances of winning increase significantly. If Villanova calls forty four rushing plays in the game, which is their average, that would mean Appalachian would hold the Wildcats to 3.2 yards per carry. Forty four rushing attempts is fewer than Southern, Wofford, Western Carolina, and The Citadel attempted on Appalachian. Villanova is not a great passing team, and I think the Wildcats strength plays right into the strength of Appalachian.
DeAndre Presley has played this entire season, trying to play his own game and avoiding the pressure of replacing an all time great Mountaineer in Armanti Edwards. If Presley keeps running like he did last Saturday, his game will start to replicate that of their former four-time All American. Presley made easy work of Western Illinois by blistering the Leatherneck defense for 264 yards rushing on only sixteen carries. Passing was not a necessity on the frozen turf of Kidd Brewer Stadium. Despite only completing two passes, Presley became only the second quarterback in Appalachian history to run for 1,000 yards in a season, the third quarterback to surpass 3,000 yards in a season and the fifth player responsible for thirty touchdowns in a season. On top of that, he became only the fourth player in FCS history to accumulate 2,000 yards passing and 1,000 rushing in the same season. Presley is leading by example in every which way possible and is making those memories of his predecessor seem somewhat distant.
Just like Western Illinois the week before, Appalachian’s next opponent, Villanova benefited from five or more turnovers from their previous foe. Western Illinois squeaked by Coastal Carolina, and Villanova used them to demolish S.F. Austin. The last time Appalachian turned the ball over that many times it was in a playoff loss to Richmond, a CAA member, at home, in the same round of the playoffs. Luckily, this season, Appalachian has been very good in the turnover battle, ranking ninth nationally, receiving nearly one turnover a game from its opponents. Villanova has also been very good in that department, ranking just ahead of the Mountaineers. However a +5 turnover margin last week really boosted their statistics. Take that game away, and the Wildcats would have fallen to 23rd nationally. Only 54 teams nationally finished their seasons on the positive side of the turnover battle. Matter of fact, in their four losses this season, Villanova was -4 in the turnover battle. Turning the ball over to Appalachian is a back breaker for any team. Appalachian is too explosive to be given extra possessions. Villanova must do what they do best to win, which is to not turn the ball over, play mistake free and control the momentum of the game. I really would like for Appalachian to jump out to an early lead so Villanova is forced to pass, and Appalachian can send pressure at Chris Whitney. Despite Villanova being very stingy against the run, I think Appalachian can run at will on the Wildcats. The last three opponents for Villanova have been pass oriented teams with great pocket passers. The threat for Presley to take off at any time might not be something that the Wildcats have seen in awhile, and I think they will struggle. This one could be really close if it is not a clean game, but either way, the Mountaineers at home are too much to handle.
The First Pick:
Our rock is a basketball 27
Mountaineers 35
Villanova (8-4) @ #1 Appalachian State (10-2)
Time: Noon
TV: ESPN
Stadium: Kidd Brewer Stadium
Surface: Fieldturf
Capacity: 21,650
Jeff Sagarin Ratings:
ASU: 71.26
VU: 71.05
Home advantage: 2.87 points
Appalachian is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 3 points (rounded).
Series: First meeting
Last Meeting: n/a
After winning a national championship, a team will get the best shot from all of their opponents the following season. Everyone wants to be the team that knocks out the defending champion from the previous season. The only team in the last four playoffs to be involved in such a game is Appalachian State. In 2006 and 2007, eight different teams tried, and failed to dethrone Appalachian State. In 2008, Richmond was able to break through and snap the Appalachian streak of 13 consecutive playoff victories. Last season, Appalachian got revenge on Richmond, who won the 2008 title, and went on the road and beat the defending champs. On Saturday, Appalachian will have an opportunity to defeat the 2009 defending champion Villanova. Three classes of Appalachian players and several coaches know what it is like to play in a game of this magnitude, which has become an annual occasion. Villanova players and coaches have only experienced one such game, in their win over Stephen F. Austin last weekend. The closer the playoffs get to crowning a national champion, the closer the talent level of the teams become, and the intangibles, like experience, play a much bigger factor. Just like last year, and a season before, a matchup of national powers will come to fruition in the playoffs in what promises to be a game for the ages.
A couple months, even a couple weeks ago, the chances of Villanova advancing to the quarterfinals would have been considered a stretch. The Wildcats best player Matt Szczur was injured against Penn, suffering from a couple high ankle sprains, and missed six games. During that six game span, Villanova lost two tough games to Rhode Island and New Hampshire at the wrong time of the season. Entering the final game, Villanova was 6-4, facing the top ranked team in the country in Delaware on the road, and were sitting squarely on the playoff bubble. The overtime victory over the Blue Hens most likely put Villanova in the playoff field, but their punishment included going on the road for the first round, and being matched against the top seed Appalachian should they advance.
Having Matt Szczur return to the lineup was huge for Villanova. It was easy to see in the national championship game last season that he was the question that Montana did not have an answer for, no matter where he lined up on the field. Villanova does a great job of putting Szczur in places where he can take advantage of his athletic ability, much like Appalachian has done this season with Travaris Cadet. In the game against Stephen F. Austin, Szczur had twenty touches. Eleven catches for 128 yards and a touchdown and nine rushes for 68 yards. The touchdown catch went for 51 yards and one of rushes went for 37 yards. Forty five percent of his total offense came on two plays. Keeping Szczur in check is a must for the Mountaineers. Szczur had ten other catches, and most of them were underneath drag routes in front of the linebackers or situations where he was the second receiver off the line in a two receiver stack. Villanova used the receiver who lined up in front of Szczur, almost like a pick. Whenever he caught a ball, there was not a defender in sight, and he was able to turn four yard routes into eight yard gains. On almost all of his rushing attempts, Szczur lined up as a wildcat quarterback and simply ran off the guard or to the strong side of the formation, whether that was by tight end or wingback, and to the left side of the line. On a few plays, Szczur was used a decoy, usually put in motion before the snap, on reverses or sweeps. Although twenty touches is a lot, the Szczur factor is in effect for almost every play, similar to how the New Orleans Saints use Reggie Bush. His presence on the field is enough to make any defense think twice.
When Szczur was not in on a play, Villanova depended several times on Chris Whitney, their senior quarterback. Whitney does not have a very accurate long ball, as he only completed three passes over 10 yards against S.F. Austin, but he does have great touch on his short routes, and great chemistry with Szczur. Whitney is a guy who will also never back down from a challenge, and several times he ran designed quarterback sweeps. The Lumberjack defense was able to sniff those plays out, and rarely did they go for a lot of yardage, but it will certainly be something the Mountaineers will see on Saturday. The best way to get pressure on Whitney was with middle blitzes or stunts from the defensive line. Whitney looked very uncomfortable with defenders in his face and was sacked several times. If pressure comes from the ends and there is no containment to the sidelines, Whitney can scramble well and is a load to bring down as he looks like a fullback in the open field. Whitney has 551 yards and ten touchdowns rushing on the season.
With each progressing week, the Appalachian defense has improved exponentially. Take away the Florida game, Appalachian has held several opponents, including playoff quarterfinalists Wofford and Georgia Southern well below their rushing averages, at an average of 53 yards per game. If Appalachian can hold the 22nd ranked rushing attack to similar numbers, which would be under 140 yards, their chances of winning increase significantly. If Villanova calls forty four rushing plays in the game, which is their average, that would mean Appalachian would hold the Wildcats to 3.2 yards per carry. Forty four rushing attempts is fewer than Southern, Wofford, Western Carolina, and The Citadel attempted on Appalachian. Villanova is not a great passing team, and I think the Wildcats strength plays right into the strength of Appalachian.
DeAndre Presley has played this entire season, trying to play his own game and avoiding the pressure of replacing an all time great Mountaineer in Armanti Edwards. If Presley keeps running like he did last Saturday, his game will start to replicate that of their former four-time All American. Presley made easy work of Western Illinois by blistering the Leatherneck defense for 264 yards rushing on only sixteen carries. Passing was not a necessity on the frozen turf of Kidd Brewer Stadium. Despite only completing two passes, Presley became only the second quarterback in Appalachian history to run for 1,000 yards in a season, the third quarterback to surpass 3,000 yards in a season and the fifth player responsible for thirty touchdowns in a season. On top of that, he became only the fourth player in FCS history to accumulate 2,000 yards passing and 1,000 rushing in the same season. Presley is leading by example in every which way possible and is making those memories of his predecessor seem somewhat distant.
Just like Western Illinois the week before, Appalachian’s next opponent, Villanova benefited from five or more turnovers from their previous foe. Western Illinois squeaked by Coastal Carolina, and Villanova used them to demolish S.F. Austin. The last time Appalachian turned the ball over that many times it was in a playoff loss to Richmond, a CAA member, at home, in the same round of the playoffs. Luckily, this season, Appalachian has been very good in the turnover battle, ranking ninth nationally, receiving nearly one turnover a game from its opponents. Villanova has also been very good in that department, ranking just ahead of the Mountaineers. However a +5 turnover margin last week really boosted their statistics. Take that game away, and the Wildcats would have fallen to 23rd nationally. Only 54 teams nationally finished their seasons on the positive side of the turnover battle. Matter of fact, in their four losses this season, Villanova was -4 in the turnover battle. Turning the ball over to Appalachian is a back breaker for any team. Appalachian is too explosive to be given extra possessions. Villanova must do what they do best to win, which is to not turn the ball over, play mistake free and control the momentum of the game. I really would like for Appalachian to jump out to an early lead so Villanova is forced to pass, and Appalachian can send pressure at Chris Whitney. Despite Villanova being very stingy against the run, I think Appalachian can run at will on the Wildcats. The last three opponents for Villanova have been pass oriented teams with great pocket passers. The threat for Presley to take off at any time might not be something that the Wildcats have seen in awhile, and I think they will struggle. This one could be really close if it is not a clean game, but either way, the Mountaineers at home are too much to handle.
The First Pick:
Our rock is a basketball 27
Mountaineers 35