MVFC Week 12 Picks

[Professor Chaos]

Indiana St @ Southern Illinois - InSU hasn't been very good on the road, SIU wins if they play like they did last week.
North Dakota @ South Dakota St - Old rivalry renewed for two teams coming off losses in big games. The Bunnies win at home.
North Dakota St @ Missouri St - The Bison are focused on securing a playoff berth and the Bears are playing for next year. I think the Bison run all over the MSU.
Northern Iowa @ Western Illinois - The Necks are desperate and the Panthers ease up a bit in preparation for the playoffs.

[MplsBison]

NDSU - team on a roll now and can smell the playoffs - this game will be like the IL St game should've been, if NDSU hadn't shot itself in both feet multiple times (by the way, this line in the IL St GDT at Bisonville cracked me all to pieces: "Hey coach, I think I shot my other foot!")

SDSU - they'll go out on a high note at home, UND is not up to level with the top in FCS yet, but they will be in couple years

SIU - need IN St to lose to ensure that NDSU is not tied with them at 5-3 conf record

UNI - sorry WIU...I need you guys to lose to absolutely secure NDSU's place in the playoffs. An 8-3 overall record against all DI schedule should do the trick...but you never know if the committee will allow more than 2 teams from the MVFC this year. WIU and IN St losing will ensure that NDSU is the sole 2nd place team in the league.

[ST_Lawson]

My Picks:
ISUb @ SIU - Sycamores finish out the season strong, SIU has a let down after their win over WIU.
UND @ SDSU - even without Minnett, I think SDSU is the better team right now
NDSU @ MSU - NDSU wins a close one and make their way into the playoffs.
UNI @ WIU - UNI is playing for homefield advantage, WIU is playing for a chance to make the playoffs. I think WIU has the greater motivation and will get the offense back on track after being shut down by SIU last week. UNI's Rennie will run all over our defense, but I don't think it'll be enough. WIU in a high scoring (for both teams) narrow win.

And Mplsbison - As long as you guys win, I'm pretty sure you're in. I haven't looked it up, but I'd bet it's pretty rare that an 8-3 team (from one of the top-level FCS conferences) with a win over an FBS team wouldn't be in the playoffs. Add to that the expanded playoff field this year, and I think that a NDSU win = a lock for an at-large spot. WIU is the bubble team right now. We lose, we're out, we win, we have a chance. I think the best chance for the conference is for WIU and NDSU to both win. Then you could have three MVFC teams in the playoffs:
1. UNI - in no matter what, already locked up the conference championship
2. NDSU - 8-3 with a win over FBS Kansas, they're in.
3. WIU - 7-4 with wins over both UNI and NDSU.
I'm rooting for you guys to win, since I think that'll only make our win over you look better.

*UPDATED*
I checked last year's playoff bracket, and it looks like 7-4 Weber State made it into the playoffs (in a field of 16). They played two FBS teams that season, Wyoming and Colorado State, and lost to both. If they can make a field of 16, an 8-3 NDSU shouldn't have a problem making a field of 20.

[Sycamore51]

IN ST: Big win agains a team we used to dominate.
SDSU: UND has had a bad year and probably just want it to be over already.
NDSU: I think they're in anyway, but a win here will all but make it official.
UNI: I think WIU is still heartbroken and deflated from last week.

2 teams will be in the field of 20 from the MVFC, and both will go far!

[MplsBison]

My Picks:
ISUb @ SIU - Sycamores finish out the season strong, SIU has a let down after their win over WIU.
UND @ SDSU - even without Minnett, I think SDSU is the better team right now
NDSU @ MSU - NDSU wins a close one and make their way into the playoffs.
UNI @ WIU - UNI is playing for homefield advantage, WIU is playing for a chance to make the playoffs. I think WIU has the greater motivation and will get the offense back on track after being shut down by SIU last week. UNI's Rennie will run all over our defense, but I don't think it'll be enough. WIU in a high scoring (for both teams) narrow win.

And Mplsbison - As long as you guys win, I'm pretty sure you're in. I haven't looked it up, but I'd bet it's pretty rare that an 8-3 team (from one of the top-level FCS conferences) with a win over an FBS team wouldn't be in the playoffs. Add to that the expanded playoff field this year, and I think that a NDSU win = a lock for an at-large spot. WIU is the bubble team right now. We lose, we're out, we win, we have a chance. I think the best chance for the conference is for WIU and NDSU to both win. Then you could have three MVFC teams in the playoffs:
1. UNI - in no matter what, already locked up the conference championship
2. NDSU - 8-3 with a win over FBS Kansas, they're in.
3. WIU - 7-4 with wins over both UNI and NDSU.
I'm rooting for you guys to win, since I think that'll only make our win over you look better.

*UPDATED*
I checked last year's playoff bracket, and it looks like 7-4 Weber State made it into the playoffs (in a field of 16). They played two FBS teams that season, Wyoming and Colorado State, and lost to both. If they can make a field of 16, an 8-3 NDSU shouldn't have a problem making a field of 20.

Lawson, you bring up great points as usual. And I agree it would look awfully suspicious to deny WIU an at-large spot if they have beaten both NDSU and UNI, who would be in the playoffs.

But think of it like you're on the committee: can you really admit two 7-4 teams from the MVFC this year? I just can't see it...

That UNI loss to SFA this season really screws it up for WIU, in that sense.

[Big Al]

InSU @ SIU
UND @ SDSU
NDSU @ MSU
UNI @ WIU

I think NDSU has to win to get into the playoffs. SIU really fell off at the end of the season, and I think their defeat of WIU last week wasn't signs of a resurgence but rather a sign that WIU really was a paper tiger.

[Gil Dobie]

InSU @ SIU SIU is getting healthy, at least according to Houndawg
UND @ SDSU Jacks at home
NDSU @ MSU Homer pick
UNI @ WIU WIU needs the win for a playoff chance.

[Sycamore51]

InSU @ SIU
UND @ SDSU
NDSU @ MSU
UNI @ WIU

I think NDSU has to win to get into the playoffs. SIU really fell off at the end of the season, and I think their defeat of WIU last week wasn't signs of a resurgence but rather a sign that WIU really was a paper tiger.

Paper cuts sure do hurt bad! They beat the hell out of us this year.

[ST_Lawson]

Lawson, you bring up great points as usual. And I agree it would look awfully suspicious to deny WIU an at-large spot if they have beaten both NDSU and UNI, who would be in the playoffs.

But think of it like you're on the committee: can you really admit two 7-4 teams from the MVFC this year? I just can't see it...

That UNI loss to SFA this season really screws it up for WIU, in that sense.

Thanks.

I think it's a pretty tough call. I think that WIU and NDSU both winning offer the best chance of 3 MVFC teams in the playoffs, but both of those things happening is still no "sure bet" for WIU in the playoffs.
Realistically, WIU and NDSU should win, and we'd need some outside help via a few other bubble teams losing their games.

Here's what I'm rooting for outside of the conference:
Delaware to defeat Villanova - puts Villanova at 6-5, and even in a tough conference like the CAA, 6-5 is a rough record to make a playoff spot
Montana State to defeat Montana - puts Montana at 7-4, same record as WIU, and in a precarious position
Rhode Island to defeat UMass - puts UMass at 6-5, see Villanova above
Wofford to defeat Chattanooga - Mocs drop to 6-5
William & Mary to defeat Richmond - Spiders to 6-5
Furman to defeat Georgia Southern - GSU to 6-5
Texas Tech to defeat Weber State - Weber State to 6-5

The bonus is that in all of the listed games except Rhode Island vs UMass and Furman vs GSU, the "preferred" outcome would not be an "upset" based on current team rankings. If WIU wins, NDSU wins, and enough of the other bubble teams lose to their mostly higher-ranked (and already playoff bound) opponents, there should be enough 6-5 teams with some big question marks for WIU to slide in near the end of the rankings with a 7-4 record.

No matter what happens though, WIU has gone from a 1-win season last year to a winning record this year. That was the "goal" that I was hoping to see when the season began and I'm pretty satisfied with the turnaround. If we lose to UNI on Saturday, I'll be rooting for UNI and NDSU all the way through the playoffs.

[UNI Pike]

My Picks:
UNI @ WIU - UNI is playing for homefield advantage, WIU is playing for a chance to make the playoffs. I think WIU has the greater motivation and will get the offense back on track after being shut down by SIU last week. UNI's Rennie will run all over our defense, but I don't think it'll be enough. WIU in a high scoring (for both teams) narrow win.



UNI is playing for a bye week, not home field advantage. UNI has not had a bye week this season, so it would help a lot. UNI will be lucky to get two home games in the playoffs given the new format, no matter how much we bid. But stranger things have happened.

[RabidRabbit]

InSU @ SIU - Blue tie for 2nd
UND @ SDSU - SDSU closes out a disappointing season on a plus note before an empty CAS under wintry conditions.
NDSU @ MSU - Bison get to play-off spot in tie for 2nd.
UNI @ WIU - WIU sews up a play-off berth with wins against all at or above them in MVFC

MVFC gets 3 into the play-offs. UNI is AQ.

[ST_Lawson]

UNI is playing for a bye week, not home field advantage. UNI has not had a bye week this season, so it would help a lot. UNI will be lucky to get two home games in the playoffs given the new format, no matter how much we bid. But stranger things have happened.

You're correct, I misspoke/mistyped. I'd forgotten that with the new field of 20, 12 teams get a first round "bye" and don't play until 12/4. And yes, a bye week might be helpful, just don't do what we did and spend the bye week forgetting how to run an effective offense.

[PantherRob82]

I've wanted to pick WIU all week with the reasoning that a win might get them in the playoffs, but then they should've have won last week using the reasoning of playoffs and a chance to have a "conference championship" in Macomb this week. I'll go with UNI.

SDSU
MSU
SIU

[leatherneck177]

InSU @ SIU - Salukis win this one by dominating from start to finish, not much scoring though, win 21-10.
UND @ SDSU - Jacks by 13, 34-21.
NDSU @ MSU - Cody Kirby and other Bears seniors go out as winners, 27-24.
UNI @ WIU - Necks kick a FG at the gun to win, UNI comes out a bit flat and Western capitalizes on early points, wins 24-21.

[DOME]

All road teams.
InSt is playing for a historic (last ten years) season.
SDSU is just plain bad.
NDSU wants a playoff spot.
UNI has really come together on both sides of the ball. I think we're going to be ahead two turnovers in this one. TR is going to complete 6 of 9 for 172 yds and two scores and also run for 173 and another score.

Add to that a pick and blocked punt...

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

SIU -- Saluki's win at home
SDSU -- Jacks win but UND could surprise them
NDSU -- If the Bison can find a passing game this one wont be close.
UNI -- Close but goin with the kitties

[JBB]

NDSU @ MSU Its only 2010 but this is the first "Game of The Century" for NDSU. The Book of The BISON LORE is open. The page is blank but the pens are freshly loaded with ink. The team has completed the work on fundamentals, blocking tackeling throwing, catching and running. The Study for the game plan has begun. Departure from Fargo is imminent.

UNI @ WIU Dream upset. It doesnt matter to NDSU anymore we win or lose and the BISON control their own destiny. Handing the Panthers a loss now would be good.

UND @ SDSU UND scored a moral win in Madison this week in basketball (the basketball team sat in the luggage compartment of the hockey teams bus) and will certainly score a win in this one, win or lose. They play hard and the fans and program swell with pride when they keep it within striking distance for the "WIN". After last weeks "win" at Montana their coach even said they played pretty darn good.

Indy St @ SIU NDSU beat them both but the SIU fans tell me they have one of the worst teams in the country ever since the BISON spanked them.