Odds on Georgia Southern getting into playoffs

[GSU Eagle]

Here are my odds:
If GSU loses -------- 0% chance
If GSU wins and Chattanooga loses--- 80%
If GSU and Chattanooga win --- 50%
How would other rate it?

[Green26]

Equally important is having at least 2 of the 4-loss CAA teams lose. I'm assuming the Villanova and Richmond will lose to Delaware and W&M, or that there will be a loss by one of the other 4-loss teams. However, if that doesn't occur, those 4-loss teams will remain in the mix and at least some would likely crowd out 4-loss teams from other conferences. This could also impact Montana if it loses.

Villanova and Richmond are currently 11th and 18 in the GPI, and would rise with wins. UNH and UMass are 8th and 14th in the GPI. Montana is 14th. Geo So is 20th.

While the GPI isn't the final word, of course, I think it often is a good indicator of what the playoff committee does--and is better, or much better, than the various polls.

I'm looking the GPI top 17 (and I use 17 because Lehigh, Robert Morris and Bethune Cookman are not in top 20, and they're auto-qualifiers, right?). James Madison already has 5 losses. GS next. W. Illinois has 4 losses. Weber has 4 losses, but is likely to end up with 5 losses (playing Texas Tech). No Ariz has 5 losses. Penn. McNeese has 4 losses. I can't imagine anyone below that, except auto-qualifiers, having a chance.

In the top 18, the question is how far will teams drop if they lose. UNH (4 losses) probably wouldn't drop out of the top 18 from 8, I wouldn't think. Montana probably wouldn't drop out of the top 17 from 12, playing Mont St, which is at 7, with 2 losses, and could be seeded, unless it was a bad loss. Sac St is at 13 with 4 losses, but I don't think they get much respect. No Dak St is at 15 with 3 losses. Chatty has 4 losses and is at 16. SE Mo St is at 17 with 2 losses, and not ranked very high in the GPI.

[Go Apps]

Here are my odds:
If GSU loses -------- 0% chance
If GSU wins and Chattanooga loses--- 80%
If GSU and Chattanooga win --- 50%
How would other rate it?

You need for the CAA to have some upsets - say MASS, Richmond, Villanova all lose would be a good start - you need Bethune to win then have UNI win, C. Ark win , Mont St win - Weber and Sac. St to lose - that would open the door cause I like the idea of 4 SoCon teams making it..

[HensRock]

This could also impact Montana if it loses.

If Montana loses they are 6-4 with their only win of any quality coming against Sac State. In that case, I don't think it matters what happens with the CAA 7-4 teams, I just can't see the committee justifying a Montana selection.


In the top 18, the question is how far will teams drop if they lose. ... Montana probably wouldn't drop out of the top 17 from 12, playing Mont St, which is at 7, with 2 losses, and could be seeded,
I believe Montana would drop pretty far if they lost the brawl, especially considering it's in Missoula this year. The computer indexes in the GPI already have the Griz ranked anywhere from 12-19. A late loss can really hurt that.

I think of all the bubble teams, Montana's case is as simple as it gets. Win the brawl and at 7-3 with wins over Sac State and MT State they are in. Lose the brawl and at 6-4 they are out. IMHO.

Now for GSU, I agree with other posters in that there are a lot of variables outside the SoCon controlling their destiny.