All Comes Down To These Games...

[Go Apps]

ASU vs Fla - If ASU wins they get the top seed - if not they will get the #2 seed

Delaware vs Villanova - Delaware grabs top seed w/ win, Villanova eliminated w/ loss

N Hamp vs Towson - N Hamp win should give them a playoff berth, lose your out

Rich vs W&M - Richmond must win to make playoffs, W&M already in

MASS vs R Isl - Mass must win to stay in playoff discussion

UNI vs W. Ill - W. Ill must win to stay in playoff discussion

Mo St vs NDak St - NDST needs to win to stay in playoff discussion

Stony Brook vs Liberty - winner take all, maybe Coastal still alive

Coastal vs Char Sthn - Coastal must win big to have any chance

UTC vs Wofford - UTC must win to stay in discussion

Furman vs GSU - GSU must win to stay in discussion

EWU vs Idaho St - a top seed at stake for EW

Bethune vs Fla A&M - Bethune wins the AQ with win, Fla A&M must win to have a chance

SCST vs NCA&T - a must win for SCST to stay alive

Mont St vs Mont - both teams need to win for different reasons

Weber St vs Texas Tech - can be in discussion with major upset

N'wstern St vs SFA - seed for SFA, AQ? for N'wstn St not likely

C Ark vs McNeese St - loser is out of discussion

Sacramento St vs UC Davis - Sac St can stay in discussion

Jax St vs Tenn Tech - a seed at stake for Jax St

Quick Look

Teams already in are: ASU, Wofford, Delaware, W&M, UNI, Mont State, E. Washington, Robert Morris, Lehigh, Bethune Cookman, SE Mo St, Jax St, SFA and one to Liberty/Stony/Coastal which

That leaves 6 spots - in the drivers seat..

-GSU/UTC - guess 1 gets in
-N. Hamp
-MASS
-NDak St
-C Ark/McNeese winner

Last spot goes to - SCST, Montana, Jacksonville, UTC/GSU leftover, Cal Poly, Sacramento St

Seeds possibilities: Delaware, ASU, Jax State, EWU, Mont State, SFA, Bethune

[Appattk]

SCSU is far from a lock... Their GPI is horribly low.. You better believe the committee is going to take a hard look at something like that...

[Go Apps]

SCSU is far from a lock... Their GPI is horribly low.. You better believe the committee is going to take a hard look at something like that...

Have a hunch they get in...things will get very political with the different conferences

[HandoEX]

Ind St vs S Ill - Ind St is still in the discussion with a win


Indiana State would only have 5 D1 wins even if they beat Southern Illinois. They beat two D2 teams.

[Go Apps]

Indiana State would only have 5 D1 wins even if they beat Southern Illinois. They beat two D2 teams.

Thanks I will update

[jmufan999]

what if Florida and Villanova both win... who gets the top seed then?

edit: i guess i might as well throw my two cents in. i think ASU would get it in that scenario.

[TypicalTribe]

Have a hunch they get in...things will get very political with the different conferences

If it's a 9-2 SC State versus a bunch of 7-4 teams, I think they get in over one of them. Feels like they've earned enough credibility over the last few years to get the at-large. Just to feel safe, should be rooting for Montana St., Wofford and Furman this weekend.

[asknoquarter21]

I agree, Montana, UTC, GSU would all be in over SCSU

UMASS, VU, UNH and UR would be in above SCSU as well if they should win their games

[GaSouthern]

IMO SCState is for real, they always play OOC teams tough unlike the rest of their conference.

I think the worst thing that could happen for the SoCon is for UTC and GSU to lose and only have two teams make the cut.

[Spiderbone]

ASU vs Fla - If ASU wins they get the top seed - if not they will get the #2 seed

Delaware vs Villanova - Delaware grabs top seed w/ win, Villanova eliminated w/ loss

N Hamp vs Towson - N Hamp win should give them a playoff berth, lose your out

Rich vs W&M - Richmond must win to make playoffs, W&M already in

MASS vs R Isl - Mass must win to stay in playoff discussion

UNI vs W. Ill - W. Ill must win to stay in playoff discussion

Mo St vs NDak St - NDST needs to win to stay in playoff discussion

Stony Brook vs Liberty - winner take all, maybe Coastal still alive

Coastal vs Char Sthn - Coastal must win big to have any chance

UTC vs Wofford - UTC must win to stay in discussion

Furman vs GSU - GSU must win to stay in discussion

EWU vs Idaho St - a top seed at stake for EW

Bethune vs Fla A&M - Bethune wins the AQ with win, Fla A&M must win to have a chance

SCST vs NCA&T - a must win for SCST to stay alive

Mont St vs Mont - both teams need to win for different reasons

Weber St vs Texas Tech - can be in discussion with major upset

N'wstern St vs SFA - seed for SFA, AQ? for N'wstn St not likely

C Ark vs McNeese St - loser is out of discussion

Sacramento St vs UC Davis - Sac St can stay in discussion

Jax St vs Tenn Tech - a seed at stake for Jax St

Quick Look

Teams already in are: ASU, Wofford, Delaware, W&M, UNI, Mont State, E. Washington, Robert Morris, Lehigh, Bethune Cookman, SE Mo St, Jax St, SFA and one to Liberty/Stony/Coastal which

That leaves 6 spots - in the drivers seat..

-GSU/UTC - guess 1 gets in
-N. Hamp
-MASS
-NDak St
-C Ark/McNeese winner

Last spot goes to - SCST, Montana, Jacksonville, UTC/GSU leftover, Cal Poly, Sacramento St

Seeds possibilities: Delaware, ASU, Jax State, EWU, Mont State, SFA, Bethune

You forgot UR...if they win there is no way the committee leaves them out with wins over W&M, UMass

[JMUNJ08]

Liberty has to win by nearly 40 points to get the auto in a 3 way tie scenario....They better be pulling for Coastal to lose....

[Uncle Buck]

Liberty has to win by nearly 40 points to get the auto in a 3 way tie scenario....They better be pulling for Coastal to lose....

Either way, i'm going to my buddies bar to drink and watch SBU try and win this thing at Liberty.

[Wildcat80]

If UNH beats Towson and makes the playoffs for the 7th year in a row......and plays like they did vs Umass, nova, JMU, UR.....we could get to Frisco!! And WIN it!!

[mcveyrl]

You forgot UR...if they win there is no way the committee leaves them out with wins over W&M, UMass

This is the reason I'm not sure that W&M is definitely in. With a loss to UR they finish the season 1-3 in their last four with a late season loss against a fellow 7-4 team. Depending on how the rest of the country shakes out, the UR-W&M game could be a plaiy-in...

[Go Apps]

You forgot UR...if they win there is no way the committee leaves them out with wins over W&M, UMass

Predict they don't win but agree with your thoughts - if Villanova, Mass, Richmond, W&M, N. Hampshire all win there is no way the committee takes all 5 plus Delaware I think the limit here is 4 teams total - at some point a loss is a loss and I believe that two of these teams are in real trouble again all depends on other action around the country but if the SOCON has 4 available then they will get at least 3 - Montana could be sitting at 4 losses along w/ many others lots of football left to play

[Go Apps]

This is the reason I'm not sure that W&M is definitely in. With a loss to UR they finish the season 1-3 in their last four with a late season loss against a fellow 7-4 team. Depending on how the rest of the country shakes out, the UR-W&M game could be a plaiy-in...

Perhaps you are right - I think if 5 teams end up with 4 losses then they look at the top three in head to head who does that favor who does it not favor - did any of these teams lose 4 times to FCS opp's or have a loss to an FBS

The tribe has late QB issues and that always plays into the minds of the committee - tough call when you have 4 past National Champs in the mix

[mcveyrl]

Perhaps you are right - I think if 5 teams end up with 4 losses then they look at the top three in head to head who does that favor who does it not favor - did any of these teams lose 4 times to FCS opp's or have a loss to an FBS

The tribe has late QB issues and that always plays into the minds of the committee - tough call when you have 4 past National Champs in the mix

There's an analysis of how the possible 7-4 CAA teams stack up on CS.com. I think the analysis favors UNH and UR, but I would find it hard to leave out the defending champ Villanova who just beat the No. 1 team after getting their best offensive player back (Szczur's back). So who knows.

[Go Apps]

There's an analysis of how the possible 7-4 CAA teams stack up on CS.com. I think the analysis favors UNH and UR, but I would find it hard to leave out the defending champ Villanova who just beat the No. 1 team after getting their best offensive player back (Szczur's back). So who knows.

Do you think they would take 6 from one conference?

[TexasTerror]

McNeese State beat Lamar - an unclassified team - they would not have seven wins, if I am not mistaken...

[Go Apps]

McNeese State beat Lamar - an unclassified team - they would not have seven wins, if I am not mistaken...

but they can win the AQ

[mcveyrl]

Do you think they would take 6 from one conference?

Nope. I don't think there's any way they would do that, which is why the analysis of the "mini-conference" -- the 5 7-4 CAA teams -- is intriguing. If five teams finish 7-4, the top four teams in head to head are (in order of finish) UNH, UR, W&M and Villanova with UMass being on the outside looking in. If five teams from the CAA end up 7-4 AND (big AND) the committee takes 4 ALs from the CAA, those 4 get the AL.

But what if the committee limits the 7-4 teams it will take and only wants 3 ALs from the CAA? All of a sudden UNH and UR are probably in, but then look at Villanova and W&M. W&M finished the season 1-3 (two in a row) and lost to fellow bubble team UR. Villanova finished the year with a win at UD and finally got Szczur back. Plus they are the defending champ. I think W&M's in trouble in that scenario.

[bkrownd]

Do you think they would take 6 from one conference?

Not without an incredible series of flops by other bubble contenders, and even then it's a long shot.

[UNHWILDCATS05]

If UNH beats Towson and makes the playoffs for the 7th year in a row......and plays like they did vs Umass, nova, JMU, UR.....we could get to Frisco!! And WIN it!!

You sir need to CALM DOWN...

Go 'Cats, beat TOWSON!

[bkrownd]

You sir need to CALM DOWN...

Go 'Cats, beat TOWSON!

You are playing for the pride of New England. We expect a title!

[McNeeserocket]

McNeese State beat Lamar - an unclassified team - they would not have seven wins, if I am not mistaken...

I don't think FCS knows what Lamar is or isn't. However, according to Sportsnetwork they are an Independent FCS as this is what is listed on their website under the Conference listed as FCS Independents:

2010 FCS Independent Conference Football Standings

Overall
School W L PF PA Pct
Old Dominion 7 3 336 218 .700
Georgia State 6 4 295 223 .600
Lamar 4 6 151 281 .400
NC Central 3 7 217 228 .300
Savannah State 1 9 106 399 .100

[Wildcat80]

You are playing for the pride of New England. We expect a title!

Ditto....RAISE EXPECTATIONS!!!

[UNH Fanboi]

In the words of Coach Norman Dale: "There's a tradition in tournament play to not talk about the next step until you've climbed the one in front of you. I'm sure going to the state finals is beyond your wildest dreams, so let's just keep it right there."

[bleedblue]

Do you think they would take 6 from one conference?



They have taken 5 from the CAA in a field of 16 so I can see them taking 6 from a conference now that there are 20 in the field. Not this year, perhaps?

[TwoFeathers]

Nope. I don't think there's any way they would do that, which is why the analysis of the "mini-conference" -- the 5 7-4 CAA teams -- is intriguing. If five teams finish 7-4, the top four teams in head to head are (in order of finish) UNH, UR, W&M and Villanova with UMass being on the outside looking in. If five teams from the CAA end up 7-4 AND (big AND) the committee takes 4 ALs from the CAA, those 4 get the AL.

But what if the committee limits the 7-4 teams it will take and only wants 3 ALs from the CAA? All of a sudden UNH and UR are probably in, but then look at Villanova and W&M. W&M finished the season 1-3 (two in a row) and lost to fellow bubble team UR. Villanova finished the year with a win at UD and finally got Szczur back. Plus they are the defending champ. I think W&M's in trouble in that scenario.

Not sure if you can take Villanova, and not W&M given W&M soundly beat Villanova. As well as Delaware and New Hampshire, for that matter.

[Go Apps]

Not sure if you can take Villanova, and not W&M given W&M soundly beat Villanova. As well as Delaware and New Hampshire, for that matter.

There is no good reason to take more than 4 from a conference, you begin to wonder if the conference is overrated...

[MacThor]

There is no good reason to take more than 4 from a conference, you begin to wonder if the conference is overrated...

I don't know, the six teams still eligible are 12-0 out of conference, including wins against some playoff teams.

[mcveyrl]

Not sure if you can take Villanova, and not W&M given W&M soundly beat Villanova. As well as Delaware and New Hampshire, for that matter.

I think it's a tough call. It really just depends on whether the committee's looking at momentum going in to the playoffs. Also, was Szczur out for the W&M game? That COULD factor into the decision.

And let me say that while I like working through these scenarios, I really think W&M will win AND/OR Villanova will lose, making this a moot point. Only one of those things has to happen for the Tribe to breathe easy, IMO.

[mcveyrl]

There is no good reason to take more than 4 from a conference, you begin to wonder if the conference is overrated...

Like MT said, the OOC of those left is unblemished. And I also think this is where the committee does factor in past playoff success into a determination of how strong a conference is.

[JSU02]

There is no good reason to take more than 4 from a conference, you begin to wonder if the conference is overrated...

Totally agree. The only way I could see it as being ok was if you were struggling to find enough teams to reach the 7 D-I win mark.

[tribefan40]

To me the question is what the commitee will be looking at. If they truly only look at head-to-head, there will be some question marks with W&M and the way things have worked out. On the flip side, you have strength of schedule with a focus on results - If Delaware wins, we will have beaten the #1 seed and and have a more impressive reume than most beyond that. I think that win or lose we are in, a win and some key losses by other teams and our road will look a lot different.

While not the most likely scenario, let's not forget, we could still get the AQ this weekend... xrotatehx