All the 4 loss or less teams

[GSU Eagle]

Big Sky:
Montana St. 8-2
Eastern Washington 8-2
Montana 7-3
Sac. St. 6-4
Weber St. 6-4

Big South:
Stony Brook 6-4
Liberty 7-3

CAA:
Delaware 9-1
W&M 7-3
New Hampshire 6-4
Villanova 6-4
Massachusetts 6-4
Richmond 6-4

Great West:
Cal Poly 7-4

MEAC:
Bethune-Cookman 10-0
S. Caroline St. 8-2
FAMU 7-3

Misouri Valley:
Northern Iowa 7-3
Western Illinois 6-4
North Dakota St. 7-3
Indiana St. 6-4

Northeast:
Robert Morris 8-2
Central Conn St. 7-3
Bryant 7-3
Duquesne 6-4

OVC:
Southeast Missouri 9-2
Jacksonville St. 9-1

Patriot:
Lehigh 8-2
Colgate 6-4

Southern:
Appalachian St. 9-1
Wofford 8-2
Chattanooga 6-4
Ga. Southern 6-4

Southland:
Stephen F. Austin 8-2
McNeese St. 6-4
Central Ark. 6-4


36 teams by my count. I have not put the SWAC or the non-scholarship leagues (Pioneer) into this list:

I eliminate the following schools as schools unlikely to get an at-large bid:
Weber St., Stony Brook/Liberty (the team that does not get the autobid from the Big South), Indiana St., Bryant, Central Connectucut, Duquesne, Colgate

If those 7 are out, that leaves 29 teams competing for 20 spots.

[WestCoastAggie]

Big Sky:
Montana St. 8-2
Eastern Washington 8-2
Montana 7-3
Sac. St. 6-4
Weber St. 6-4

Big South:
Stony Brook 6-4
Liberty 7-3

CAA:
Delaware 9-1
W&M 7-3
New Hampshire 6-4
Villanova 6-4
Massachusetts 6-4
Richmond 6-4

Great West:
Cal Poly 7-4

MEAC:
Bethune-Cookman 10-0
S. Caroline St. 8-2
FAMU 7-3

Misouri Valley:
Northern Iowa 7-3
Western Illinois 6-4
North Dakota St. 7-3
Indiana St. 6-4

Northeast:
Robert Morris 8-2
Central Conn St. 7-3
Bryant 7-3
Duquesne 6-4

OVC:
Southeast Missouri 9-2
Jacksonville St. 9-1

Patriot:
Lehigh 8-2
Colgate 6-4

Southern:
Appalachian St. 9-1
Wofford 8-2
Chattanooga 6-4
Ga. Southern 6-4

Southland:
Stephen F. Austin 8-2
McNeese St. 6-4
Central Ark. 6-4


36 teams by my count. I have not put the SWAC or the non-scholarship leagues (Pioneer) into this list:

I eliminate the following schools as schools unlikely to get an at-large bid:
Weber St., Stony Brook/Liberty (the team that does not get the autobid from the Big South), Indiana St., Bryant, Central Connectucut, Duquesne, Colgate

If those 7 are out, that leaves 29 teams competing for 20 spots.

Robert Morris, Lehigh, Appalachian State and Northern Iowa clinched their conference's Auto Bid.

Jacksonville State, Wofford, Delaware, Montana State, Eastern Washington, S.F. Austin, William & Mary & SEMO can be presumed as locks in the 2010 field.

That leaves about 8 spots up for grabs.

This is going to be fun to watch.

[Aho_Old_Guy]

By my estimation 10 of your 29 should have no realistic expectation of making the playoffs.

I'll leave you guys to choose those ten on your own xlolx

[AndrewFU21]

I certainly do not envy the NCAA selection committee this week.

CAA - If things work out a certain way in the CAA this week, you could have Delaware in at 9-2 and then 5 teams all at 7-4(5-3). How do you make sense of that? I have expected 4 teams to get in, but it's tough to say at this point. Things get a lot clearer if UD beats Nova and if the Tribe beat Richmond. If that happens, and UNH and UMass both win, those four will make the field.

Big Sky - Montana State and EWU are locks. Montana probably has a good chance even with a loss to MSU this week, but a win definitely gets them in. Sacramento could be 7-4 with a win over UC-Davis, but I don't think a 4th Big Sky team will make the field

MEAC - BCC is a lock. SCSU at 9-2 makes the playoffs in my bracket, but I'm not sure if they will in the NCAA's. The Bulldogs might not have played a big time schedule, but I think you reward winning, and I'd take them over the 5th or 6th best 4-loss team for sure.

MVC - North Dakota State and UNI can punch their tickets at 8-3 with wins this weekend. WIU has a chance if they beat UNI to get to 7-4.

OVC - SEMO and JSU are in.

Southland - SFA is in. McNeese State has a shot if they beat UCA.

SoCon - ASU and Wofford are locks. Chattanooga is probably in with a win over Wofford, and GSU is in with a win over Furman and a Chattanooga loss. GSU would have an argument for getting in over UTC(assuming both finish 7-4), but I'd take the Mocs because of their head-to-head win and their better conference record. I do not like the chances of 4 SoCon teams getting in.

[WestCoastAggie]

If Bethune-Cookman loses the FC and SC State lose against A&T, does Bethune Cookman deserve an At-Large bid?

[UNH Fanboi]

Montana needs to win to get to 7 D1 wins

[Big Dawg]

If Bethune-Cookman loses the FC and SC State lose against A&T, does Bethune Cookman deserve an At-Large bid?

Good question

[aceinthehole]

36 teams by my count. I have not put the SWAC or the non-scholarship leagues (Pioneer) into this list:

I eliminate the following schools as schools unlikely to get an at-large bid:
Weber St., Stony Brook/Liberty (the team that does not get the autobid from the Big South), Indiana St., Bryant, Central Connectucut, Duquesne, Colgate


WHY?

Why don't you just rank all 36 teams by their resume as you see them and let the chips fall where they may. There is no reason to eliminate teams without comparing each team to each other.

[Gil Dobie]

Added DI and FCS records

(Hopefully mistake-free)

Big Sky:
Montana St. 8-2 (DI 7-2, FCS 7-1)
Eastern Washington 8-2 (DI 7-2, FCS 7-1)
Montana 7-3 (DI 6-3, FCS 6-3)
Sac. St. 6-4 (DI 5-4, FCS 5-3)
Weber St. 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)

Big South:
Stony Brook 6-4 (DI 5-4, FCS 5-3)
Liberty 7-3 (DI 7-3, FCS 6-3)

CAA:
Delaware 9-1 (DI 8-1, FCS 8-1)
W&M 7-3 (DI 7-3, FCS 7-3)
New Hampshire 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)
Villanova 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)
Massachusetts 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)
Richmond 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)

Great West:
Cal Poly 7-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-4)

MEAC:
Bethune-Cookman 10-0 (DI 9-0, FCS 9-0)
S. Caroline St. 8-2 (DI 7-2, FCS 7-1)
FAMU 7-3 (DI 7-3, FCS 7-2)

Misouri Valley:
Northern Iowa 7-3 (DI 7-3, FCS 7-2)
Western Illinois 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)
North Dakota St. 7-3 (DI 7-3, FCS 6-3)
Indiana St. 6-4 (DI 4-4, FCS 4-3)

Northeast:
Robert Morris 8-2 (DI 8-2, FCS 8-2)
Central Conn St. 7-3 (DI 6-3, FCS 6-3)
Bryant 7-3 (DI 5-3, FCS 5-3)
Duquesne 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-4)

OVC:
Southeast Missouri 9-2 (DI 8-2, FCS 8-1)
Jacksonville St. 9-1 (DI 9-1, FCS 8-1)

Patriot:
Lehigh 8-2 (DI 8-2, FCS 8-2)
Colgate 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)

Southern:
Appalachian St. 9-1 (DI 9-1, FCS 9-1)
Wofford 8-2 (DI 7-2, FCS 7-1)
Chattanooga 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)
Ga. Southern 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)

Southland:
Stephen F. Austin 8-2 (DI 8-2, FCS 8-1)
McNeese St. 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)
Central Ark. 6-4 (DI 5-4, FCS 5-3)

[inpsite1919]

If Bethune-Cookman loses the FC and SC State lose against A&T, does Bethune Cookman deserve an At-Large bid?
Yeah Right

[Green26]

Montana needs to win to get to 7 D1 wins

True, but 7 D-I wins is not a requirement to playoff selection. It is merely a factor.

[FargoBison]

Montana needs to win to get to 7 D1 wins

Montana needs a win just to have a quality win. No way they Griz deserve to get in without beating MSU.

[ejjones]

Big Sky - Montana State and EWU are locks. Montana probably has a good chance even with a loss to MSU this week, but a win definitely gets them in. Sacramento could be 7-4 with a win over UC-Davis, but I don't think a 4th Big Sky team will make the field

Montana only has 6 DI wins...not a rule, but will be tough to include w/o a win over MSU.

[ejjones]

If Bethune-Cookman loses the FC and SC State lose against A&T, does Bethune Cookman deserve an At-Large bid?
All things are possible, but that scenario won't play out. SCSU game will be over at the half.

[UNHFootballAlum]

True, but 7 D-I wins is not a requirement to playoff selection. It is merely a factor.



Why do the teams that do not have 7 D-I wins aways say that it is not a requirement. When has the committee put a 6 D-I win team made the playoffs since they added that clause to the selection process?

[paward]

This thread is the reason I love this site. AGS posters are students of the game. I still do not know why the committee have to meet. All they need to do is conference call and come to this site. NCAA can save a ton of money on airline tickets. Good work to all that did their homework.

[Green26]

Montana only has 6 DI wins...not a rule, but will be tough to include w/o a win over MSU.

Why do you say it would be tough to include Montana? The 7 D-I non-rule was even put in the ncaa handbook with "may" put in bold this year. Personally, with Montana's long playoff tradition, two successive trips to the national championship game, and large attendance and bid, I think it would be hard to keep Montana out of the playoffs.

[McNeese72]

Southland:
Stephen F. Austin 8-2 (DI 8-2, FCS 8-1)
McNeese St. 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)
Central Ark. 6-4 (DI 5-4, FCS 5-3)

Not that this really matters, but McNeese played two FBS teams (Missouri and LSU) so this should be FCS 6-2.

Doc

[FargoBison]

Why do you say it would be tough to include Montana? The 7 D-I non-rule was even put in the ncaa handbook with "may" put in bold this year. Personally, with Montana's long playoff tradition, two successive trips to the national championship game, and large attendance and bid, I think it would be hard to keep Montana out of the playoffs.

So you are saying Montana with no quality wins should get in due to the lifetime achievement award. Honestly I think it would be easy to keep Montana out as long as enough 7 win power conference teams remain.

[slostang]

Added DI and FCS records

(Hopefully mistake-free)

Big Sky:
Montana St. 8-2 (DI 7-2, FCS 7-1)
Eastern Washington 8-2 (DI 7-2, FCS 7-1)
Montana 7-3 (DI 6-3, FCS 6-3)
Sac. St. 6-4 (DI 5-4, FCS 5-3)
Weber St. 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)

Big South:
Stony Brook 6-4 (DI 5-4, FCS 5-3)
Liberty 7-3 (DI 7-3, FCS 6-3)

CAA:
Delaware 9-1 (DI 8-1, FCS 8-1)
W&M 7-3 (DI 7-3, FCS 7-3)
New Hampshire 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)
Villanova 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)
Massachusetts 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)
Richmond 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)

Great West:
Cal Poly 7-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-4)

MEAC:
Bethune-Cookman 10-0 (DI 9-0, FCS 9-0)
S. Caroline St. 8-2 (DI 7-2, FCS 7-1)
FAMU 7-3 (DI 7-3, FCS 7-2)

Misouri Valley:
Northern Iowa 7-3 (DI 7-3, FCS 7-2)
Western Illinois 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)
North Dakota St. 7-3 (DI 7-3, FCS 6-3)
Indiana St. 6-4 (DI 4-4, FCS 4-3)

Northeast:
Robert Morris 8-2 (DI 8-2, FCS 8-2)
Central Conn St. 7-3 (DI 6-3, FCS 6-3)
Bryant 7-3 (DI 5-3, FCS 5-3)
Duquesne 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-4)

OVC:
Southeast Missouri 9-2 (DI 8-2, FCS 8-1)
Jacksonville St. 9-1 (DI 9-1, FCS 8-1)

Patriot:
Lehigh 8-2 (DI 8-2, FCS 8-2)
Colgate 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)

Southern:
Appalachian St. 9-1 (DI 9-1, FCS 9-1)
Wofford 8-2 (DI 7-2, FCS 7-1)
Chattanooga 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)
Ga. Southern 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)

Southland:
Stephen F. Austin 8-2 (DI 8-2, FCS 8-1)
McNeese St. 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)
Central Ark. 6-4 (DI 5-4, FCS 5-3)

Cal Poly 7-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3) Cal Poly had a loss against FBS Fresno State. Does not matter because they are short the 7 DI wins they need. They threw away the playoffs when they decided they did not need to show up for the second half of a game they dominated in the 1rst half and where ahead 21-3.

[dudeitsaid]

If Montana does not beat MSU, there is no way they should get in. Not only do they not have 7 D1 wins, their victories have been mediocre for the most part. They haven't truly dominated anybody but Division II Western state.

Somehow the lower ranked team often seems to win the Brawl of the Wild, so it won't surprise me if they win. But if they don't, there is no way they should be in- past history, stadium size, revenue production, and all other things considered. Only a Griz fan would think they should.

I'm an EWU fan, but I think even the Eagles have played very mediocre football. I'm shocked they are at #3. Should be MSU, I hate to say. I would assume few people that have ranked EWU have seen them play. I will say, they have an uncanny ability to make other teams do weird things, odd mistakes and the like that make them lose. They have a knack for making things happen at the last minute. Almost every games been heart attack city. They have some great players. But every game they've played aside from Portland state has been ugly. But if the GPI gets us a higher seed and a bye, that works out for us.

BTW, go Griz, I actually hope you beat the bobcats so EWU wins the Big Sky outright.

[UNH Fanboi]

Why do you say it would be tough to include Montana? The 7 D-I non-rule was even put in the ncaa handbook with "may" put in bold this year. Personally, with Montana's long playoff tradition, two successive trips to the national championship game, and large attendance and bid, I think it would be hard to keep Montana out of the playoffs.

Wishfull thinking. I sure hope your players aren't thinking like that.

[Green26]

So you are saying Montana with no quality wins should get in due to the lifetime achievement award. Honestly I think it would be easy to keep Montana out as long as enough 7 win power conference teams remain.

UM has played well enough to be in the playoffs, has no bad losses, and had two closes losses early in the season. I believe Montana should and will get in, although I suppose the final week of the season could impact the situation. It looks like there are going to be a number of teams with 4 losses who will be in the playoff field.

[Green26]

Wishfull thinking. I sure hope your players aren't thinking like that.

It's not wishful thinking. A number of the pundits and others in the semi-know are also saying this.

Are you just worried that Montana will get in and UNH won't?

[Squealofthepig]

OK, as a Griz fan - if we don't beat the Cats, we shouldn't get in. It really is as simple as that.

Our three road losses are to good teams - and they're still losses. What really good teams have we beaten? How do our wins stack up against other FCS schools? The Big Sky is becoming a much more competitive conference - which I for one am happy with. But beating the middle of the conference and losing to the top, without other good wins, shouldn't equate to a playoff invite.

We've had some flashes of greatness this year, but they're predominately flashes. Other teams have played more consistently, do not have our turnover troubles and are not nearly as beat up injury-wise as we are. The only way a six-win Montana gets in is with a BUNCH of carnage with the other six win teams.

[UncleSam]

It's not wishful thinking. A number of the pundits and others in the semi-know are also saying this.

Are you just worried that Montana will get in and UNH won't?

No danger of that, UNH is definately in with a win over Towson. UNH has four wins, Villanova, UMass, Richmond, JMU that are all better than anything on Montana's resume.

[wmmii]

CAA:
Delaware 9-1 (DI 8-1, FCS 8-1)
W&M 7-3 (DI 7-3, FCS 7-3)
New Hampshire 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)
Villanova 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)
Massachusetts 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)
Richmond 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)

I am a Tribe fan but I think the carnage will continue in the CAA this weekend. With 'Nova and Richmond playing for their playoff life , I see both pulling upsets and setting up the CAA with 5 teams all 7-4 plus Deleware at 9-2. With that result I see no way with the CAA track record in the playoff not getting all 6 teams into the 20 team field after they got 5 in a 16 team field a few years ago.

My hope is W&M holds off Richmond-its arch rival dating back to 1898 (no typo, oldest rivalry in South) and 'Nova pulls off the upset at Deleware as that will give W&M the CAA title and probably an automatic top seed due to winning the title.

What a weekend coming up!

[Indianastate45]

An interesting thought.... If Indiana State wins against Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa beats Western Illinois, and North Dakota State loses on the road to Mo State....at 7-4 (5-3 conference) ISU would be in 2nd place all alone in the MVFC. A long shot? Maybe....but man what a cinderella story that would be if they got the last spot.

[DOME]

Go Trees! I'd be all for the sycs getting into the bracket over the Bison. Just because Bison fans for some reason don't like the panthers.

And I think the Trees have a better offense which would look good on TV...

[Big Dawg]

Yeah Right

you gotta stop getting offended by the scenarios on this site...

[Dblue]

An interesting thought.... If Indiana State wins against Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa beats Western Illinois, and North Dakota State loses on the road to Mo State....at 7-4 (5-3 conference) ISU would be in 2nd place all alone in the MVFC. A long shot? Maybe....but man what a cinderella story that would be if they got the last spot.

If Indiana State wins and finishes second in the Valley they will still only have 6 DI wins, and everyone knows only Montana would truly be deserving a playoff slot with 6 DI wins. xlolx

[PeterBoy]

Central Ark's next match is very important for them .

[UNH Fanboi]

It's not wishful thinking. A number of the pundits and others in the semi-know are also saying this.

Are you just worried that Montana will get in and UNH won't?

I'm just stating my honest assessment of the Griz's chances if they only have 6 wins.

I'm pretty confident that UNH will get in if they beat Towson. Their GPI will blow away any other bubble team's GPI.

[WrenFGun]

UM has played well enough to be in the playoffs, has no bad losses, and had two closes losses early in the season. I believe Montana should and will get in, although I suppose the final week of the season could impact the situation. It looks like there are going to be a number of teams with 4 losses who will be in the playoff field.

Montana is an interesting case, because they don't deserve to be in with 6 DI wins, so we're going to see how much money talks if they lose to Montana State. That said, I project them to win at home v. Montana State and clinch a berth.

[GreatAppSt]

So you are saying Montana with no quality wins should get in due to the lifetime achievement award. Honestly I think it would be easy to keep Montana out as long as enough 7 win power conference teams remain.

Like a possible 7-4 Georgia Southern with a recent win over a top seed team.xnodx

[WrenFGun]

Presuming expected attrition, I think Georgia Southern is in with a win, though I think they're 50/50 at best to win when considering they're at Furman.

[TwoFeathers]

Added DI and FCS records

(Hopefully mistake-free)

Big Sky:
Montana St. 8-2 (DI 7-2, FCS 7-1)
Eastern Washington 8-2 (DI 7-2, FCS 7-1)
Montana 7-3 (DI 6-3, FCS 6-3)
Sac. St. 6-4 (DI 5-4, FCS 5-3)
Weber St. 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)

Big South:
Stony Brook 6-4 (DI 5-4, FCS 5-3)
Liberty 7-3 (DI 7-3, FCS 6-3)

CAA:
Delaware 9-1 (DI 8-1, FCS 8-1)
W&M 7-3 (DI 7-3, FCS 7-3)
New Hampshire 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)
Villanova 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)
Massachusetts 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)
Richmond 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)

Great West:
Cal Poly 7-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-4)

MEAC:
Bethune-Cookman 10-0 (DI 9-0, FCS 9-0)
S. Caroline St. 8-2 (DI 7-2, FCS 7-1)
FAMU 7-3 (DI 7-3, FCS 7-2)

Misouri Valley:
Northern Iowa 7-3 (DI 7-3, FCS 7-2)
Western Illinois 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)
North Dakota St. 7-3 (DI 7-3, FCS 6-3)
Indiana St. 6-4 (DI 4-4, FCS 4-3)

Northeast:
Robert Morris 8-2 (DI 8-2, FCS 8-2)
Central Conn St. 7-3 (DI 6-3, FCS 6-3)
Bryant 7-3 (DI 5-3, FCS 5-3)
Duquesne 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-4)

OVC:
Southeast Missouri 9-2 (DI 8-2, FCS 8-1)
Jacksonville St. 9-1 (DI 9-1, FCS 8-1)

Patriot:
Lehigh 8-2 (DI 8-2, FCS 8-2)
Colgate 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)

Southern:
Appalachian St. 9-1 (DI 9-1, FCS 9-1)
Wofford 8-2 (DI 7-2, FCS 7-1)
Chattanooga 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)
Ga. Southern 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)

Southland:
Stephen F. Austin 8-2 (DI 8-2, FCS 8-1)
McNeese St. 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)
Central Ark. 6-4 (DI 5-4, FCS 5-3)

W&M is 7-2 (not 7-3) in FCS. One loss was to FBS UNC.

[TwoFeathers]

CAA:
Delaware 9-1 (DI 8-1, FCS 8-1)
W&M 7-3 (DI 7-3, FCS 7-3)
New Hampshire 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)
Villanova 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)
Massachusetts 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)
Richmond 6-4 (DI 6-4, FCS 6-3)

I am a Tribe fan but I think the carnage will continue in the CAA this weekend. With 'Nova and Richmond playing for their playoff life , I see both pulling upsets and setting up the CAA with 5 teams all 7-4 plus Deleware at 9-2. With that result I see no way with the CAA track record in the playoff not getting all 6 teams into the 20 team field after they got 5 in a 16 team field a few years ago.

My hope is W&M holds off Richmond-its arch rival dating back to 1898 (no typo, oldest rivalry in South) and 'Nova pulls off the upset at Deleware as that will give W&M the CAA title and probably an automatic top seed due to winning the title.

What a weekend coming up!

Second that. However, if Tribe wins the CAA with a win over Richmond and a Delaware loss, I don't see them earning the top seed by virtue of their overall record. I could see W&M coming in at 3 or 4, IMO.

[UNH Fanboi]

I'm just stating my honest assessment of the Griz's chances if they only have 6 wins.

I'm pretty confident that UNH will get in if they beat Towson. Their GPI will blow away any other bubble team's GPI.

Also, look at UNI last year. They had a very similar resume to Montana--7-4, traditional power with good attendance, no big wins, a loss in their last game. BUT, Northern Iowa had 7 D1 wins and a very respectable FBS loss. Yes, there are two extra at-larges this year, but I still don't see Montana getting in with only 6 wins. The pool of 7 win teams will likely not be that shallow.

[heath]

If it falls into place where Delaware finishes 9-2 and W&M,UR,UMass,UNH and Nova all finish 7-4, assuming only 5 teams go, who's the last team out?, if only 4 go then who's out?

[MacThor]

If it falls into place where Delaware finishes 9-2 and W&M,UR,UMass,UNH and Nova all finish 7-4, assuming only 5 teams go, who's the last team out?, if only 4 go then who's out?

In the 5-way nuclear tie scenario,
UNH 3-1
UR 2-2
W&M 2-2
Nova 1-2
UMass 1-2

They should make Nova and UMass have a play-in game.

I also think the committee would look at the finish, which gives them:
UR 3-0
UNH 2-1
UMass 2-1
W&M 1-2
Nova 1-2

[mcveyrl]

UM has played well enough to be in the playoffs, has no bad losses, and had two closes losses early in the season. I believe Montana should and will get in, although I suppose the final week of the season could impact the situation. It looks like there are going to be a number of teams with 4 losses who will be in the playoff field.

So do you think a 6-4 (Div. I) Montana gets in over a 6-5 JMU? I'd like to get the reasoning behind that.

If the committee takes a 6 win team, it should be JMU. Having said that, I don't think they will and really they shouldn't.

[Gil Dobie]

So do you think a 6-4 (Div. I) Montana gets in over a 6-5 JMU? I'd like to get the reasoning behind that.

If the committee takes a 6 win team, it should be JMU. Having said that, I don't think they will and really they shouldn't.

JMU 6-4 vs FCS view is a little different.

[mcveyrl]

JMU 6-4 vs FCS view is a little different.

Huh? Do you mean JMU 5-5 vs. FCS? Are you ignoring the Va. Tech win, then? Do you know how the committee works?

[Gil Dobie]

Huh? Do you mean JMU 5-5 vs. FCS? Are you ignoring the Va. Tech win, then? Do you know how the committee works?

Sorry, typing JMU, thinking Nova.

[mcveyrl]

Sorry, typing JMU, thinking Nova.

Got it. But I still think JMU gets in over Montana IF (big if) JMU wins and Montana loses this weekend. Again, neither will probably get in, but if we're comparing the two...

['neers80]

Why do you say it would be tough to include Montana? The 7 D-I non-rule was even put in the ncaa handbook with "may" put in bold this year. Personally, with Montana's long playoff tradition, two successive trips to the national championship game, and large attendance and bid, I think it would be hard to keep Montana out of the playoffs.

the argument for tradition and money are secondary to the quality of wins and record. Past teams and past success is not what gets teams into the playoffs. win saturday and this will be a mute conversation. loose and IMO they don't deserve to be in regardless of their past.

PS personally i would love to see them in and come through boone, but they need to prove that THIS year's team belongs in.

[bullseye44]

Second that. However, if Tribe wins the CAA with a win over Richmond and a Delaware loss, I don't see them earning the top seed by virtue of their overall record. I could see W&M coming in at 3 or 4, IMO.

I would just appreciate a bracket where we don't have to travel to UD or App St. I'd gladly play either team in Zable or Frisco, but I don't think either of those end well for us on the road. I'm guessing that bracket is highly unlikely though...

[McNeeserocket]

I certainly do not envy the NCAA selection committee this week.
Southland - SFA is in. McNeese State has a shot if they beat UCA.

McNeese has a shot as long as they win this weekend, which is no given against a good Central Ark team in Arkansas. If McNeese wins then they will at least share the Southland Championship and coupled with a loss by SFA could still receive the auto qualifier for playoffs.

As strange as it might seem, even if McNeese and SFA lose this weekend, then a three way tie for Southland Conference Championship exists. When the Playoff auto qualifier tie breaker cannot be determined by head to head matches, a few other tie breakers are used which could allow either McNeese or Northwestern to be the playoff auto qualifier.

SFA is in whether they win or not.

Contrary to what was written, McNeese has not lost to 3 FCS teams. McNeese has lost to 4 quality teams - 2 highly rated FBS teams (LSU who is # 5 and Mizzou who is #15 ) and to 2 top 25 FCS schools (SFA, who is currently in top 5 and Cal Poly who is #23). In addition, with a win this weekend McNeese will have won its last 5 games.

Northwestern had been on a role since losing to McNeese back on October 2nd, having won 4 in row before losing this last weekend. If Northwestern pulls off the upset this weekend against SFA, Northwestern will have won 5 out of the last 6 games.

[WileECoyote06]

the argument for tradition and money are secondary to the quality of wins and record. Past teams and past success is not what gets teams into the playoffs. win saturday and this will be a mute conversation. loose and IMO they don't deserve to be in regardless of their past.

PS personally i would love to see them in and come through boone, but they need to prove that THIS year's team belongs in.

What? Who knew? *sarcasm*

[JUDolphins]

Why is Jacksonville summarily dismissed from the at-large conversation? 10 wins isn't anything to sneeze about.

Yes, they played in the PFL and dominated it. They are under consideration from the committee, yet you guys think they have no shot because of your bias because they are non-scholarship - yet if the Ivy League went to the postseason, you would be talking about them getting two teams.

If there are 20 teams in the country better than JU, I haven't seen them.

[McNeese72]

This question comes up every year with Dayton, San Diego, or (fill in the blank with the latest non-sholarship team who is undefeated). SOS is usually what gets them with the playoff selection committee. But with the expansion to 20 teams, who knows this season.

Doc

[tribe_pride]

Why is Jacksonville summarily dismissed from the at-large conversation? 10 wins isn't anything to sneeze about.

Yes, they played in the PFL and dominated it. They are under consideration from the committee, yet you guys think they have no shot because of your bias because they are non-scholarship - yet if the Ivy League went to the postseason, you would be talking about them getting two teams.

If there are 20 teams in the country better than JU, I haven't seen them.

For me it's this, Jacksonville and Dayton are hurt by not playing each other this year and that probably would not have even helped. Jacksonville has the 230th toughest (16th easiest) schedule in all of D-I (by Sagarin). Drake is the best conference opponent that it played and is ranked 189 of all D-I. Of the out of conference teams, Webber Int'l is D-II (I'd guess) so they don't count, Jax lost to App. State (a top FCS squad) by 31, and beat the 159th ranked (D-I) ODU by 10. They are 2-1 against teams with an above .500 record (and above teams in the top 200).

There are only 10 at-large spots. If you want to grab one of them, you need to play and beat some teams that are in the running for those spots. Jacksonville only put itself against one of them and got blown out (I know game until late 3rd was close but final score was not close). The other 2 teams were not in the running for the playoff spots. ODU's coach even admitted that about his own team.

As said above me, who knows with 20 teams this year but I still think you need to play some teams in contention to prove you deserve to be there.

[FormerPokeCenter]

Added DI and FCS records


Southland:
Stephen F. Austin 8-2 (DI 8-2, FCS 8-1)
McNeese St. 6-4 (DI 5-4, FCS 5-2)
Central Ark. 6-4 (DI 5-4, FCS 5-3)



Fixed McNeese's totals for you. Lamar apparently doesn't count as a Division I win.....McNeese lost to ranked BCS Teams Missouri and LSU, giving them the 5-2 mark currently against FCS. They'll improve to 6-2 if they win over UCA

[Milktruck74]

This question comes up every year with Dayton, San Diego, or (fill in the blank with the latest non-sholarship team who is undefeated). SOS is usually what gets them with the playoff selection committee. But with the expansion to 20 teams, who knows this season.

Doc

So should the committee reward a inferior PFL team with a spot and eliminate a team that actually has a shot to contend for a title, like GSU, Nova, W&M, Chatty?

[Milktruck74]

Until the PFL can prove themselves in the regular season with consistent wins against top 25 teams, they do not deserve a playoff slot. There is a reason they do not have an AQ spot. And don't try to call RMU a Quality Win, just because a team makes the playoffs, doesn't automatically make them a quality win.

[Squealofthepig]

As was pointed out to me by another poster, previous conference success (or lack thereof) is a consideration for at-large teams. I had Jacksonville just outside my top 25 this week, and probably would have had them ranked if they had beaten Campbell by more than 7 at home, fwiw. With a larger field, they may get an invite, but I don't think it would surprise many of us if Jacksonville was on the outside looking in next Sunday.

[McNeeserocket]

Fixed McNeese's totals for you. Lamar apparently doesn't count as a Division I win.....McNeese lost to ranked BCS Teams Missouri and LSU, giving them the 5-2 mark currently against FCS. They'll improve to 6-2 if they win over UCA

You now need to fix SFA's totals, as they too played Lamar also, and if that win does not count for McNeese than it cannot count for Lamar. Taking out the win over Lamar gives SFA an 8-2 (DI 7-1, FCS 7-1) total.

[WileECoyote06]

So should the committee reward a inferior PFL team with a spot and eliminate a team that actually has a shot to contend for a title, like GSU, Nova, W&M, Chatty?

Devil's Advocate:

One could say that those teams had a chance to prove they are national title contenders in the regular season (W & M shouldn't even be lumped with bubble teams). Every year teams advance to the playoffs who can not/will not have a realistic shot at advancing to the national championship game. The argument about national title contention isn't a very strong one for including certain teams and excluding others.





Sidebar: I don't feel Jax should advance; especially if Dayton is left out. Dayton to me has a stronger resume, and results. But then again, I'm not one to count a 20+ loss as a 'good loss'.

[I Bleed Purple]

Man, a 6-4 FCS Griz team getting in even over a 6-3 FCS Weber team is insulting, much less more deserving teams from different conferences.

[nwFL Griz]

Man, a 6-4 FCS Griz team getting in even over a 6-3 FCS Weber team is insulting, much less more deserving teams from different conferences.

6-3 Weber? Does Boston College not count? Or that loss to Sac St? Try 6-5 after this weekend.

Not that I'm advocating for UM to get in if they lose to the Cats, but Weber has only themselves to blame. You'd still have five losses...losing to Sac and scheduling two FBS games.

[Fear the Bird]

xeyebrowxxbangx
Man, a 6-4 FCS Griz team getting in even over a 6-3 FCS Weber team is insulting, much less more deserving teams from different conferences.

I seriously do not understand how Montana is so highly ranked and Weber is on the outside looking in. There losses are near identical, with WEBER BEATING MONTANA HEAD TO HEAD, but Weber lost to Boston College the same weekend that Montana pasted Western St

I have been openly questioning Montana's rankings on other threads but didn't open my own eyes up to this Weber argument til now

[nwFL Griz]

xeyebrowxxbangx

I seriously do not understand how Montana is so highly ranked and Weber is on the outside looking in. There losses are near identical, with WEBER BEATING MONTANA HEAD TO HEAD, but Weber lost to Boston College the same weekend that Montana pasted Western St

I have been openly questioning Montana's rankings on other threads but didn't open my own eyes up to this Weber argument til now

Maybe because Weber lost to BC. Is a loss to an FBS team better than a win over a DII? Depends on what your prejudices tell you.

Don't get me wrong, I think Weber is a good team, but let's examine how each fared in common competition:

N. Colo - 47
@Weber - 50 (4OT)

@N. Colo - 7
UM - 30

@Sac St - 24
Weber - 17

Sac St - 25
@UM - 28

EWU - 35
@Weber - 24

@EWU - 36
UM - 27

@ISU - 13
Weber - 16

ISU - 28
@UM - 47

PSU - 41
@Weber - 44

@PSU - 21
UM - 23

@Weber - 30
UM - 21

@NAU - 26
Weber - 27

NAU - 21
@UM - 24

@MSU - 24
Weber - 10

MSU - ?
@UM - ?

Some differences there. Trends? Who knows, draw your own conclusions.

[I Bleed Purple]

6-3 Weber? Does Boston College not count? Or that loss to Sac St? Try 6-5 after this weekend.

Not that I'm advocating for UM to get in if they lose to the Cats, but Weber has only themselves to blame. You'd still have five losses...losing to Sac and scheduling two FBS games.

I thought puting FCS next to the record would indicate records versus FCS.

Maybe because Weber lost to BC. Is a loss to an FBS team better than a win over a DII? Depends on what your prejudices tell you.

Don't get me wrong, I think Weber is a good team, but let's examine how each fared in common competition:

N. Colo - 47
@Weber - 50 (4OT)

@N. Colo - 7
UM - 30

@Sac St - 24
Weber - 17

Sac St - 25
@UM - 28

EWU - 35
@Weber - 24

@EWU - 36
UM - 27

@ISU - 13
Weber - 16

ISU - 28
@UM - 47

PSU - 41
@Weber - 44

@PSU - 21
UM - 23

@Weber - 30
UM - 21

@NAU - 26
Weber - 27

NAU - 21
@UM - 24

@MSU - 24
Weber - 10

MSU - ?
@UM - ?

Some differences there. Trends? Who knows, draw your own conclusions.

More similarities than differences. Are you going to tout MSU's performance against ISU to say Montana is better than Montana State?

Would you be making the reverse argument if Weber had played Western and Montana Boston College?

Weber won its OOC FCS game. Montana lost theirs.

Weber lost to Sac on the road. Montana beat Sac at home.

Only differences in the results right there.

That, and the head to head, of course.

[Green26]

Man, a 6-4 FCS Griz team getting in even over a 6-3 FCS Weber team is insulting, much less more deserving teams from different conferences.

Weber is likely to be a 5 loss team. That's the major problem. Weber may have scheduled itself out of the playoffs with the FBS games. That has happened to other teams in the past. Also, some of the selectors may recall that Weber has not exactly set the world on fire with its playoff performances in recent years, including last year.

[I Bleed Purple]

Weber is likely to be a 5 loss team. That's the major problem. Weber may have scheduled itself out of the playoffs with the FBS games. That has happened to other teams in the past. Also, some of the selectors may recall that Weber has not exactly set the world on fire with its playoff performances in recent years, including last year.

No doubting that Weber is likely to be a 5 loss team. What I'm saying is that neither team should be in the field of 20 if they both lose on Saturday and if Montana gets in with very similar resumes and Weber's HtH win would be extremely insulting.

Let's say by some miracle both teams win on Saturday. Who deserves to be in and who deserves to be out?

[nwFL Griz]

I thought puting FCS next to the record would indicate records versus FCS.


More similarities than differences. Are you going to tout MSU's performance against ISU to say Montana is better than Montana State?

Would you be making the reverse argument if Weber had played Western and Montana Boston College?

Weber won its OOC FCS game. Montana lost theirs.

Weber lost to Sac on the road. Montana beat Sac at home.

Only differences in the results right there.

That, and the head to head, of course.

Yeah, but the FCS record isn't what is counted, DI is what counts, and y'all will have 5 DI losses, so it doesn't matter that you are 6-3 FCS.

I'm not making an argument for either team to be in, I'm just saying your righteous indignation is based on a false premise.

[Gil Dobie]

Yeah, but the FCS record isn't what is counted, DI is what counts, and y'all will have 5 DI losses, so it doesn't matter that you are 6-3 FCS.

I'm not making an argument for either team to be in, I'm just saying your righteous indignation is based on a false premise.

Depends on how much weight Strength of Schedule carries.

Dayton or Jacksonville could argue they have more wins than most teams, but SOS kills them.