Playoff Overview - 1 Week to Go

[Go Apps]

Here are a few clarifications for the playoff field of 20: The Ivy League does not participate in the playoffs- The SWAC will send its division champions to the SWAC title game. Teams ineligible: ???. A team must also reach 7 D1 wins to be eligible for an at large berth most likely. – ALSO there are teams with still a chance of winning their Autobid but I have not listed due to upcoming schedule and belief that they will lose but will add back in coming weeks as the potential field shrinks.

Below, are prospects of FCS teams that can still entertain realistic playoff hopes. Schools are ranked by their chances of making the playoffs, as determined by Me. Current overall and conference records are in parentheses, and each team’s remaining schedule is listed with a brief synopsis of its chances. The adds of AQ means they received the Autobid or IN means I believe they have already made the field,regardless of how they finish. The rank below is based on being in the playoffs not where I believe they will be seated

1. Robert Morris (8-2, 7-1 NEC)
The Games:

Outlook: AQ A bad loss secures a first round game.

2. Appalachian State (9-1, 7-1 Southern)
The Games: at Florida

Outlook: AQ Talk about bouncing back, ASU dominated the #4 ranked team – win or lose next week – IMO they have locked up a top 2 seed!

3. Jacksonville State (9-1, 6-1 OVC)
The Games: at Tenn Tech

Outlook: IN Thriller of a victory keeps Jax state in the mix for a top 5 seed, must win out.

4. Wofford (8-2, 6-1 Southern)
The Games: UTC

Outlook: IN Did not see that coming and I like UTC next week – but regardless the Terriers are headed to the playoffs

5. Delaware (9-1, 6-1 CAA)
The Games: Villanova

Outlook: IN Back on top perhaps – Delaware and ASU are battling for the top seed – now they face a desperate Villanova team for all the marbles…

6. Montana State (8-2, 6-1 Big Sky)
The Games: at Montana

Outlook: IN The Bobcats once again control their destiny but the showdown with Montana awaits


7. Bethune Cookman (9-0. 6-0 MEAC)
The Games: Howard, at Fla. A&M

Outlook: IN A narrow escape and other losses are making this team look like a top seed

8. SE MO State (9-2, 7-1 OVC)
The Games: Regular Season Complete

Outlook: IN Just missed knocking off Jax State but they can celebrate a post season berth

9. Stony Brook or Liberty (Big South)

Outlook: AQ Read some crazy tie breaker rules so I like SB at the moment

10. E. Washington (8-2, 6-1 Big Sky)
The Games: Idaho State

Outlook: IN A narrow escape keeps them in the top 5 seed discussion.

11. Lehigh (8-2, 4-0 Patriot)
The Games: at Layfayette

Outlook: AQ Lehigh seems to be the lone team alive from the Patriot…

14. Northern Iowa (7-3, 6-1 MVC)
The Games: at W. Illinois

Outlook: AQ – UNI needs to win out to strengthen their resume..

12. SF Austin (8-2, 6-1 Southland)
The Games: NWstern St.

Outlook: SFA is starting to look like they deserve a top 5 seed?


13. South Carolina State (8-2. 6-1 MEAC)
The Games: at NC A&T

Outlook: A top 10 team most of the year I think SCST is still in control of a playoff berth but they have to win out – 1 loss will make it difficult.


15. William & Mary (7-3, 5-2 CAA)
The Games: Richmond

Outlook: Well now just when you thought things were looking good – the tribe is in a bit of a mess and now face Richmond who needs to win – the CAA is starting to lose steam…

16. Montana (7-3, 5-2 Big Sky)
The Games: at Montana State

Outlook: The Grizzles have not been playing norm this year and if not careful could put themselves out of playoff contention with another loss – the loss to Cal Poly looms big – they need to win this weekend to secure a spot

17. Massachussets (6-4, 4-3 CAA)
The Games: R. Island

Outlook: Too many teams with 4 losses heartbreak ahead for somebody..

18. New Hampshire (6-4, 4-3 CAA)
The Games: Towson

Outlook: Who knows at this point

19. Ga Southern (6-4, 4-3 Southern)
The Games: at Furman

Outlook: Just like I said they did beat ASU and now I believe they will need to beat a Furman team that looks to play spoiler.

20. North Dakota State (7-3, 4-3 MVC)
The Games: at MOSt

Outlook: Need to keep winning and secure a post season berth.

21. Chattanooga (6-4, 5-2 Southern)
The Games: at Wofford

Outlook: The best 4 loss team in the country – can they get in with 4 losses – oh and they have to win the last one… I like their chances against Wofford and I think they get in if they do

22. Villanova (6-4, 4-3 CAA)
The Games: at Delaware

Outlook: Trouble ahead – the playoffs have begun for Villanova!

23. Richmond (6-4, 4-3 CAA)
The Games: at W&M

Outlook: The Spiders are still alive and if they run the table will grab a playoff spot

24. Jacksonville (9-1, 7-0 Pioneer)
The Games: Campbell

Outlook: The game at ASU was the real test – one they lost but they are putting up impressive numbers – to be in the discussion they need the CAA to start eliminating each other – not looking good

25. Western Illinois (6-4, 4-3 MVC)
The Games: UNI

Outlook: Still alive but I don’t see them making it

26. Florida A&M (7-3. 6-1 MEAC)
The Games: Bethune Cookman

Outlook: Still alive but how many bids will this conference get? I say two….

27. Central Arkansas (6-4, 3-3 Southland)
The Games: McNeese St.

Outlook: The McNeese St game could decide a playoff berth, but I just don’t see it

28. McNeese State (6-4, 5-1 Southland)
The Games: at Central Arkansas

Outlook: Now they must win the next to stay in the discussion.

Below are my current projections for the I-AA playoff field and possible match-ups, based on expectations for the remaining games this season.

Automatic Bids: Patriot: Lehigh, A10: Delaware, Big Sky: Montana State, Southland: SFA, Southern: ASU, Gateway: N.Iowa., MEAC: Bethune Cookman, OVC: Jacksonville State: Big South: Stony Brook :NEC: Robert Morris

At-large: Wofford, SEMOSt, UTC, N. Hamp, W&M, MASS, E.Wash, Montana, SCSt, NDakSt

Seeds: Delaware, ASU, Bethune Cookman, Jax State , EWU
Last In: Montana, MASS, UTC
Last Out: Richmond, GSU, Jacksonville

Bracket I:
Robert Morris @ MASS winner at No. 1 Delaware
Mont State @ UNI

NDak St @ Montana winner at No. 4 E. Wash
N Hamp @ No. 5 Bethune Cookman

Bracket II:
SCSt. @ UTC at No. 3 Jacksonville State
SEMO St @ SFA

Stony Brook @ Lehigh winner at No. 2 ASU
W&M @ Wofford

[WrenFGun]

The best 4 loss teams in the country are in the CAA. My Guess is it's probably UNH (wins over Villanova, Richmond, James Madison, Lehigh, Central Connecticut State and Massachusetts), though the Sagarin likes Villanova more and Sac. State nearly as much. I keep hearing Chattanooga is the best 4-loss team, but who have they beat? They have close losses to JSU and App. State, but where is the win? Georgia Southern?

If a CAA team gets to 7-4 they're in.

[Go Apps]

Understand there are a few teams still alive but not listed just think they will not make it in the end like Coastal, Nwstn St, and I believe the Southern will grab at least 3 spots, CAA 4 and Big sky 3

[No_Skill]

If NDSU gets in, I really see them with a first round home game. Our AD has stated that he will be VERY aggressive with the bidding process to get a home game. I know that's not the sole deciding factor, but money talks.

[EdubAlum]

EWU was a narrow escape? they were never behind in that game against a very good and under rated SUU team.

[superman7515]

5. Delaware (8-1, 5-1 CAA)
The Games: Villanova

Outlook: IN Back on top perhaps – Delaware and ASU are battling for the top seed – now they face a desperate Villanova team for all the marbles…


Delaware is 9-1. West Chester still counts for a W in the record books, haha.

[Tribe4SF]

Montana must win this week to reach 7 D-I wins. If they beat Montana State, That should put them in. If they lose their streak ends.

[Go Apps]

If NDSU gets in, I really see them with a first round home game. Our AD has stated that he will be VERY aggressive with the bidding process to get a home game. I know that's not the sole deciding factor, but money talks.

Their likely opponent is Montana in round 1 and you will not outbid MT

[Milktruck74]

Early in the season, Chattanooga didn't know how to win. The are a good football team that is finding their identity. The Elon game taught them alot, like you cant keep spoting good teams 3 TDs and turnovers kill!!!

I know you only play one game at a time, but I look at the last two weeks and see a team that hung 48 on a defense that only let Woffie score 10. I like the Mocs chances this week too.

I love your bracket projections. UTC hosts a weak SC St team, then gets to head back to Jax St for a rematch.......Oh I'm dreaming of riding momentum right into the quarter finals.....Oh thanks for letting me dream.

[Gil Dobie]

Their likely opponent is Montana in round 1 and you will not outbid MT

Assuming Montana beat Montana St of course.

[FargoBison]

Their likely opponent is Montana in round 1 and you will not outbid MT

The first round byes are determined before the game pairings. I think there is a strong chance an 8-3 NDSU would earn a bye.

[Chi Panther]

The first round byes are determined before the game pairings. I think there is a strong chance an 8-3 NDSU would earn a bye.

I tend to agree....however the committee may only reward the auto bid and make the rest of the conf earn it....

[Chemhen]

Would NDSU's AD take a loss to secure a 1st round game?

[Milktruck74]

I love the new format. Obviously it allows 4 more teams into the mix, but it also allows the lower ranked teams to "HOST" a playoff game, which can be HUGE for programs trying to build their fan base.

[Go Apps]

Would NDSU's AD take a loss to secure a 1st round game?

Doubtful but it may not matter...

[hujo21]

There are three teams in the SWAC who cannot participate in the playoffs. They are Grambling, Southern, and Alabama State. All other SWAC teams such as Jackson State are eligible for a at-large bid into the FCS playoffs. The SWAC does not have a automatic bid because of the Bayou Classic and the Turkey Day Classic. If these classics were moved then there would not be a SWAC Championship game.

I think Jackson State, if we beat Alcorn could have a shot at getting a at-large bid in the playoff. JSU will have won 8 FCS games if we beat Alcorn.

[JSU02]

Anyone know when the last time a SWAC team made the playoffs?

[Go Apps]

There are three teams in the SWAC who cannot participate in the playoffs. They are Grambling, Southern, and Alabama State. All other SWAC teams such as Jackson State are eligible for a at-large bid into the FCS playoffs. The SWAC does not have a automatic bid because of the Bayou Classic and the Turkey Day Classic. If these classics were moved then there would not be a SWAC Championship game.

I think Jackson State, if we beat Alcorn could have a shot at getting a at-large bid in the playoff. JSU will have won 8 FCS games if we beat Alcorn.

No way Jackson State is even on the radar - they would not take a 2 or 3rd place team - the strength of schedule does not support any discussion on the matter

[MacThor]

I love the new format. Obviously it allows 4 more teams into the mix, but it also allows the lower ranked teams to "HOST" a playoff game, which can be HUGE for programs trying to build their fan base.

Unfortunately, Saturday-after-Thanksgiving games are no way to build a fan base. With very few exceptions (at schools who are likely to get byes in the new format), first round games have lower attendance than regular season games.

[hujo21]

JSU02 to answer your question it was Jackson State in 1997.

Apps,

Jackson will have a better win loss record than most of those at-large schools. Our strength off schedule was probably not as weak as you think. We beat a strong Delta State team who is in the DII playoffs now.

[HensRock]

Anyone know when the last time a SWAC team made the playoffs?

1997 #15 Jackson State

[HensRock]

JSU will have won 8 FCS games if we beat Alcorn.

I count only 7:
Tenn St.
Miss Valley St.
Alabama A&M
Southern
Prairie View
Ark Pine Bluff
Alcorn St.

JSU lost to both Grambling and Texas Southern as well as Alabama State
If you could point to a win over either GSU or TSU, then you might have a case at 7-3 (Delta State is a non-counter even if they are in the DII playoffs).

I just don't see any wins on this resume that would get Jackson State into the playoffs this year.

[hujo21]

HensRock,

You are right 6 FCS wins. If we beat Alcorn then we will have 7 FCS. If we would have beaten TSU, GSU, or ASU you would have probably said the same thing about our resume. With a record of 8-3 and the FCS top passer, I think Jackson State has a good shot.

[CopperCat]

Wow. So this prediction gives MSU the AQ but they still TRAVEL to UNI??? That's not happening. MSU would get a bye at a MINIMUM in the first round a host a game the second round. If they beat the griz, they should get the #4 or #5 seed. MSU averaged 14,000+ for EVERY home game this year, you're not going to make a team that can draw that amount of fans travel.

[superman7515]

JSU02 to answer your question it was Jackson State in 1997.

Apps,

Jackson will have a better win loss record than most of those at-large schools. Our strength off schedule was probably not as weak as you think. We beat a strong Delta State team who is in the DII playoffs now.

I'm sorry, but if the crux of your argument for a stronger than expected SOS is that the D2 team you beat is going to make the playoffs, I'm going to go ahead right now and thank Jackson State for participating in 2010, better luck next season.