BS/NEC Playoff expectations?

[aceinthehole]

What are the expectations (this year and in the future) for the 2 newest AQ conferences, the Big South and NEC?

Just to put the past results of certain conferences in perspective, for the past 4 seasons no team from oustide of the Big Sky, CAA, MVFC, SoCon, or SLC has won a playoff game.

Last playoff wins:

Indy - Cal Poly (2005)
PL - Colgate (2003)
OVC - Western Kentucky (2000)
MEAC - North Carolina A&T (1999), Florida A&M (1999)

- The PL won 7 playoff games in a 4 year period (2001-2003), however the PL is 0-7 since 2004.
- The OVC is 1-14 in the playoffs since 2000; former-member WKU beat FAMU in 2000.
- In 1999, the MEAC won 2 first round games, since then the MEAC is 0-10 in the playoffs.

Also, at-large selections oustide of the Big Sky, CAA, MVFC, SoCon, or SLC have been rare have been few and far between.

Last at-large selections:

OVC - Eastern Illinois (2007)
Indy - Cal Poly (2005)
PL - Lafayette (2005)
MEAC - Bethune-Cookman (2003)

- The PL has had a total of 3 at-large selections since 1998.
- The MEAC has had a total of 4 at-large selections since 1997.
- The OVC has had a total of 4 at-large selections since 2000.

[DFW HOYA]

That's not likely to change for the PL this year, either.

[DSUrocks07]

Should both the NEC and BS champs both strike out in the playoffs, I only hope that their fans are prepared for the predictable responses from the power conferences.

[UAalum72]

It all depends on the matchups.




Last playoff wins:

Indy - Cal Poly (2005)
PL - Colgate (2003)
OVC - Western Kentucky (2000)
MEAC - North Carolina A&T (1999), Florida A&M (1999)

- The PL won 7 playoff games in a 4 year period (2001-2003), however the PL is 0-7 since 2004.
- The OVC is 1-14 in the playoffs since 2000; former-member WKU beat FAMU in 2000.
- In 1999, the MEAC won 2 first round games, since then the MEAC is 0-10 in the playoffs.



Actually FAMU won two games in 1999 and one in 1998, but the win by two-year OVC member Western Kentucky was over MEAC's FAMU, and NCA&T's win was over OVC's Tenn. St., so that shows matchups are even more important to getting wins.

[UAalum72]

Should both the NEC and BS champs both strike out in the playoffs, I only hope that their fans are prepared for the predictable responses from the power conferences.
But if they don't, what excuses will we hear from MEAC fans then? And will we hear any "Sorry, we were wrong" from the Old Guard?

[DSUrocks07]

But if they don't, what excuses will we hear from MEAC fans then? And will we hear any "Sorry, we were wrong" from the Old Guard?

We've had those same discussions about SC State the last couple years. All I'm saying is hopefully they are ready. I would love to see RMU and/or Liberty make a run. But should they both lose, then all you would hear was that "RMU was overrated because Liberty wasn't that good to begin with" or that (random 7-4 team) would of fared better if the NEC or BS didnt "steal" their spot...not my thoughts just channeling that mindset.

[UAalum72]

then all you would hear was that "RMU was overrated because Liberty wasn't that good to begin with" or that (random 7-4 team) would of fared better if the NEC or BS didnt "steal" their spot...not my thoughts just channeling that mindset.
The first quote we've heard for the last five years every time we've beaten a power conference team anyway; the "steal" doesn't apply because without the BS and NEC there wouldn't have been the other two at-larges either.

[WestCoastAggie]

But if they don't, what excuses will we hear from MEAC fans then? And will we hear any "Sorry, we were wrong" from the Old Guard?

I'd say expect to receive favorable treatment from poll voters in 2011.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

The PL historically runs into the best teams in the playoffs. Running into the A10/CAA champ in the first round is not a recipe for success.

1997 Villanova 49 Colgate 28, 'Nova was #1 entering the playoffs

1998 Lehigh 24 Richmond 23
Umass 27 Lehigh 21, Umass National Champs

1999 Hofstra 27 Lehigh 15
Illinois 56 Colgate 13

2000 Lehigh 37 Western Illinois 7
Delaware 47 Lehigh 22

2001 Lehigh 27 Hofstra 24
Furman 34 Lehigh 17, Furman National Runner-up

2002 Fordham 29 Northeastern 24
Villanova 24 Fordham 10

2003 Delaware 40 Colgate 0 National Title Game

2004 James Madison 14 Lehigh 13, JMU National Champs
Delaware 28 Lafayette 14

2005 App State 34 Lafayette 23, App State National Champs
UNH 55 Colgate 21

2006 Umass 35 Lafayette 14, UMass National Runner-up

2007 Umass 49 Fordham 35

2008 Villanova 55 Colgate 28

2009 Villanova 38 Holy Cross 28, Villanova National Champs

[heath]

Think RMU is probably 1 and done because they will draw a tough bracket. Liberty could win a game and be competative in the next round.People will enjoy watching their QB(Mike Brown) do his thing.

[putter]

Honestly DSU, I don't think it's whether they win or lose (although winning is huge) but how they compete. The last couple of years I have not known much about SC State, however, their performances against App (both losses) have made me respect their program and that is huge. In the beginning people will look down on them if they lose but if they compete then you start to gain respect - like WestCoastAggie said, you will see he respect in the polls for starters.

[UNH Fanboi]

The quality of competition in the first round of the expanded playoffs will be, on average, less than it was in the past, so it will be a little easier for some of the minnows to get a win. A lot will depend on the matchups though. Will the committee match the AQs against power conference at-larges, or will they let them play each other, guaranteeing at least one of them a win?

[Big Al]

I expect to see Patriot/NEC and Big South/MEAC matchups in the first round. Unfortunately, I don't think it will really change anyone's opinion on the conferences. That will be dictated by how they do in the second round. There may be some 3rd/4th place CAA or 2nd/3rd SoCon matchups mixed in and that may be very telling, as well.

[PantherRob82]

I expect to see Patriot/NEC and Big South/MEAC matchups in the first round. Unfortunately, I don't think it will really change anyone's opinion on the conferences. That will be dictated by how they do in the second round. There may be some 3rd/4th place CAA or 2nd/3rd SoCon matchups mixed in and that may be very telling, as well.

I don't think this is true. I wouldn't be surprised to see all four conferences on the road. Maybe the MEAC or Liberty hosts, but I don't see the others bidding well enough.

[BlueHenSinfonian]

The PL historically runs into the best teams in the playoffs. Running into the A10/CAA champ in the first round is not a recipe for success.


Geographically speaking, the PL and the MEAC are both sort of screwed going into the playoffs. The PL nestles right up against the CAA, and the MEAC rests between the CAA and the SoCon, so it has been highly likely for teams from both conferences to play teams from the top FCS conferences early in the playoffs. With this year's new autobids though, a PL/NEC or MEAC/Big South game in the first round could easily happen, allowing both the PL and the MEAC a chance at a playoff win before facing a CAA or SoCon team.

[WileECoyote06]

Geographically speaking, the PL and the MEAC are both sort of screwed going into the playoffs. The PL nestles right up against the CAA, and the MEAC rests between the CAA and the SoCon, so it has been highly likely for teams from both conferences to play teams from the top FCS conferences early in the playoffs. With this year's new autobids though, a PL/NEC or MEAC/Big South game in the first round could easily happen, allowing both the PL and the MEAC a chance at a playoff win before facing a CAA or SoCon team.

I'm glad someone else has noticed this.

[Big Al]

I don't think this is true. I wouldn't be surprised to see all four conferences on the road. Maybe the MEAC or Liberty hosts, but I don't see the others bidding well enough.

I bet the PL & NEC champ end up facing each other. If, for example, Lehigh & RMU get the autobids, they're only 60 miles apart. I don't think the committee can overlook how cheap that game would be to put on.

Bethune-Cookman would likely end up on the road. Liberty could host a CAA team (or vice versa) in the first round.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

I bet the PL & NEC champ end up facing each other. If, for example, Lehigh & RMU get the autobids, they're only 60 miles apart. I don't think the committee can overlook how cheap that game would be to put on.

Bethune-Cookman would likely end up on the road. Liberty could host a CAA team (or vice versa) in the first round.

RMU to Lehigh is actually about 310 miles across the state of PA.

[WileECoyote06]

The quality of competition in the first round of the expanded playoffs will be, on average, less than it was in the past, so it will be a little easier for some of the minnows to get a win. A lot will depend on the matchups though. Will the committee match the AQs against power conference at-larges, or will they let them play each other, guaranteeing at least one of them a win?xeyebrowx

[Big Al]

RMU to Lehigh is actually about 310 miles across the state of PA.

I stand corrected. However, I still think that is a matchup the committee can't ignore.

[Big Al]

Will the committee match the AQs against power conference at-larges, or will they let them play each other, guaranteeing at least one of them a win?

I think the committee's priority for the first round will be cost control. Therefore, the matchups will be based purely on cost to put on the game and the resulting bids to host.