Playoff Overview - 2 Weeks Left

[Go Apps]

Here are a few clarifications for the playoff field of 20: The Ivy League does not participate in the playoffs- The SWAC will send its division champions to the SWAC title game. Teams ineligible: ???. A team must also reach 7 D1 wins to be eligible for an at large berth most likely. – ALSO there are teams with still a chance of winning their Autobid but I have not listed due to upcoming schedule and belief that they will lose but will add back in coming weeks as the potential field shrinks.

Below, are prospects of FCS teams that can still entertain realistic playoff hopes. Schools are ranked by their chances of making the playoffs, as determined by Me. Current overall and conference records are in parentheses, and each team’s remaining schedule is listed with a brief synopsis of its chances. The adds of AQ means they received the Autobid or IN means I believe they have already made the field,regardless of how they finish. The rank below is based on being in the playoffs not where I believe they will be seated

1. Robert Morris (8-1, 7-0 NEC)
The Games: at Bryant

Outlook: AQ Get ready for Round 1 you are in.

2. Appalachian State (8-1, 6-1 Southern)
The Games: Wofford, at Florida

Outlook: IN As I thought ASU hit a Wall on Saturday now a must win vs Wofford but regardless they have already qualified. Win the next two and get a top two seed.

3. Jacksonville State (8-1, 5-1 OVC)
The Games: SEMO St, at Tenn Tech

Outlook: IN Jax State also had a rough weekend but they need to regroup a huge game this weekend and if they win out they are back in discussion for a Top seed.

4. Wofford (8-1, 6-0 Southern)
The Games: at ASU, UTC

Outlook: IN How did everyone miss this – the Terriers appear to be the best team in the SoCon and next week that will be determined on the field. In line for a Top Seed.

5. Delaware (8-1, 5-1 CAA)
The Games: at UMass, Villanova

Outlook: IN Delaware looks to be the number 2 team this week and they are in line for a top two seed if they win out.

6. Montana State (8-2, 6-1 Big Sky)
The Games: at Montana

Outlook: IN The Bobcats once again control their destiny but the showdown with Montana awaits


7. Bethune Cookman (9-0. 6-0 MEAC)
The Games: Howard, at Fla. A&M

Outlook: IN A narrow escape and other losses are making this team look like a top seed

8. SE MO State (8-1, 6-0 OVC)
The Games: at Jax St.

Outlook: IN Another surprise this year and they have a real shot of winning the Autobid in this week with a monster game – perhaps a top seed?

9. William & Mary (7-2, 5-1 CAA)
The Games: at JMU, Richmond

Outlook: Perhaps the number 1 team this week – not sure why 2 losses should not put you at number 1 but I will go with it. Still two tough games ahead and while I think they are in not ready to call it – I hear there are QB injuries – that could change everything.

10. Villanova (6-3, 4-2 CAA)
The Games: N. Hamp, at Delaware

Outlook: Talk about your bad weekends Villanova is in a mess – why take a look at the next two games – win one and you secure a postseason berth.

11. SF Austin (7-2, 4-1 Southland)
The Games: SE Louis, NWstern St.

Outlook: Looks as if the remaining schedule favors the Lumberjacks as they cannot afford to lose another.

12. Liberty (7-2, 4-0 Big South)
The Games: at Coastal Car., Stony Brook

Outlook: The flames just need to win out and they will play most likely in Round 1.

13. E. Washington (7-2, 6-1 Big Sky)
The Games: S. Utah, Idaho State

Outlook: EW needs to win out to stay in the discussion and conference race.

14. Lehigh (7-2, 3-0 Patriot)
The Games: at Georgetown, at Layfayette

Outlook: Lehigh seems to be the lone team alive from the Patriot and if they win out will most likely play in round 1.

15. Cal Poly (7-3, 2-1 Great West)
The Games: UC Davis

Outlook: A team that is looking like it needs help any loss will dash their playoff hopes.

16. South Carolina State (7-2. 5-1 MEAC)
The Games: at Morgan State, at NC A&T

Outlook: A top 10 team most of the year I think SCST is still in control of a playoff berth but they have to win out – 1 loss will make it difficult.

17. Northern Iowa (6-3, 5-1 MVC)
The Games: MO St, at W. Illinois

Outlook: A wild race that UNI still can control – will they?

18. Montana (6-3, 5-2 Big Sky)
The Games: North Dakota, at Montana State

Outlook: The Grizzles have not been playing norm this year and if not careful could put themselves out of playoff contention with another loss.

19. Massachussets (6-3, 4-2 CAA)
The Games: at Delaware, R. Island

Outlook: I like the chances of Mass but they need to win out and they need a big victory this weekend over Delaware.

20. Ga Southern (5-4, 3-3 Southern)
The Games: at WCU, at Furman

Outlook: Just like I said they did beat ASU and now I believe they will win out and host a first round game.

21. North Dakota State (6-3, 3-3 MVC)
The Games: SDakSt, at MOSt

Outlook: Need to keep winning and secure a post season berth.

22. Western Illinois (6-3, 4-2 MVC)
The Games: at S. Illinois, UNI

Outlook: Will need to win out and I believe they are in.

23. New Hampshire (5-4, 3-3 CAA)
The Games: at Villanova, Towson

Outlook: A big loss they must win out to secure a bid

24. Furman (5-4, 3-3 Southern)
The Games: at Elon, GSU

Outlook: Still in the mix if they can win out!

25. Chattanooga (5-4, 4-2 Southern)
The Games: Samford, at Wofford

Outlook: The best 4 loss team in the country – can they get in with 4 losses – oh and they have to win the last two.

26. Central Arkansas (6-3, 3-2 Southland)
The Games: Sam Houston St., McNeese St.

Outlook: They must win out the McNeese St game could decide a playoff berth.

27. S. Utah (6-4, 4-0 Great West)
The Games: at E. Washington

Outlook: A lot of press for S. Utah all of a sudden – a win over EWU will be helpful but how does their schedule look to the committee.

28. Jacksonville (9-1, 7-0 Pioneer)
The Games: Campbell

Outlook: The game at ASU was the real test – one they lost but they are putting up impressive numbers – to be in the discussion they need the CAA to start eliminating each other.

29. Richmond (5-4, 3-3 CAA)
The Games: R. Island, at W&M

Outlook: The Spiders are still alive and if they run the table will grab a playoff spot

30. Florida A&M (6-3. 5-1 MEAC)
The Games: Hampton, Bethune Cookman

Outlook: Still alive but how many bids will this conference get? I say two….

31. McNeese State (5-4, 4-1 Southland)
The Games: Texas St, at Central Arkansas

Outlook: Now they must win the next two for an at large.

32. Stony Brook (5-4, 4-0 Big South)
The Games: Gardner Webb, at Liberty

Outlook: Can win the Big South – can they beat Liberty!

Below are my current projections for the I-AA playoff field and possible match-ups, based on expectations for the remaining games this season.

Automatic Bids: Patriot: Lehigh, A10: W&M, Big Sky: Montana State, Southland: SFA, Southern: Wofford, Gateway: N.Iowa., MEAC: Bethune Cookman, OVC: Jacksonville State: Big South: Liberty :NEC: Robert Morris

At-large: ASU, SEMOSt, GSU, Villanova, Delaware, MASS, E.Wash, Cal Poly, SCSt, NDakSt

Seeds: Villanova, W&M, Bethune Cookman, Jax State , Wofford
Last In: Cal Poly, MASS, GSU
Last Out: W. Ill, McNeese St, Jacksonville

Bracket I:
Robert Morris @ Liberty winner at No. 1 W&M
E Wash @ UNI

Cal Poly @ NDak St. winner at No. 4 Bethune Cookman
Villanova @ No. 5 Jax State

Bracket II:
Lehigh @ MASS at No. 3 Delaware
SFA @ Montana State

SCSt. @ GSU winner at No. 2 Wofford
SEMO St @ ASU

[TwoFeathers]

Nice outline. However, I would put W&M higher than #9 chance to make the playoffs, given they have beaten #1 and #2, should be #1 this week, and have nearly locked the CAA championship already. Point made on the QB situation. They started the #3 QB, and ended up with #4 QB last week at UNH, but still won 13-3 against a very good team with a 12-game win streak at home. Two tough games remaining, but they are playing very strong.

PS, I think it's App State with tougher games remaining, who could fall further with one more loss.

[darell1976]

I thought I read that the NCAA is expanding the number of playoffs teams is that true? If so when does that start and how many teams?

[danefan]

I thought I read that the NCAA is expanding the number of playoffs teams is that true? If so when does that start and how many teams?

Starts this year. 20 teams.

First Round - bottom 8 teams play thanksgiving weekend. 5 seeds and remaining best 7 teams get a bye into 2nd round.
Second Round - Winners of the 1st round games play at Seeds 1-4. Remaining two games (one at #5 seed and the other based on bids) - December 4
Quarterfinals - December 11th at highest seed or highest bid.
Finals - January 7th (Frisco, TX).

[danefan]

I think its highly unlikely SCST gets in. I also thinks there's an almost zero chance Bethune Cookman gets a seed.

And just an FYI - pretty sure that FAMU actually controls its own destiny in the MEAC. Maybe a MEAC poster can explain the tie-breaker if FAMU wins out and the conferences ends up with FAMU, BCU and SCST all with 1 conference loss.

[LeadBolt]

I thought I read that the NCAA is expanding the number of playoffs teams is that true? If so when does that start and how many teams?

Yes. It was expanded from 16 to 20 teams. It starts this year and is reflected above.

[Go Apps]

Nice outline. However, I would put W&M higher than #9 chance to make the playoffs, given they have beaten #1 and #2, should be #1 this week, and have nearly locked the CAA championship already. Point made on the QB situation. They started the #3 QB, and ended up with #4 QB last week at UNH, but still won 13-3 against a very good team with a 12-game win streak at home. Two tough games remaining, but they are playing very strong.

PS, I think it's App State with tougher games remaining, who could fall further with one more loss.

I have them next in line to all the teams that I believe have already secured a post season berth - if they were to lose the next two and while I don't think they will I see them in the playoffs

[Nebuta]

Nice outline. However, I would put W&M higher than #9 chance to make the playoffs, given they have beaten #1 and #2, should be #1 this week, and have nearly locked the CAA championship already. Point made on the QB situation. They started the #3 QB, and ended up with #4 QB last week at UNH, but still won 13-3 against a very good team with a 12-game win streak at home. Two tough games remaining, but they are playing very strong.

PS, I think it's App State with tougher games remaining, who could fall further with one more loss.


Nearly locked already? Woah...easy big 2Feathers, lets not crown the king just yet. The CAA championship will be decided in the last week of the season. W&M loses one game. Then all the 4-2 CAA teams are in the fold. Even UMass and Nova have a chance to lock up the CAA AQ. Not to mention UD is still 5-1 in the CAA. Still alot of football to be played.

[Klandbulldog]

Actually FAMU is probably done....even if they beat Bethune it will create a 3-way tie (SCSU, FAMU & Bethune) and Bethune would get the bid based on tie breaker rules.

[danefan]

Actually FAMU is probably done....even if they beat Bethune it will create a 3-way tie (SCSU, FAMU & Bethune) and Bethune would get the bid based on tie breaker rules.

Thanks for the clarity - do you know what the tie-breaker rules are?

[CAAisBOSS]

Nearly locked already? The CAA championship will be decided in the last week of the season. W&M loses one game. Then all the 4-2 CAA teams are in the fold. Even UMass and Nova have a chance to lock up the CAA AQ. Not to mention UD is still 5-1 in the CAA. Still alot of football to be played.

ha why does it seem as though eveyone thinks wm will lose? i know theyre rivalry games but we arent the only ones with difficult games and i think we've proven ourselves in any conditions-- case in point UNH with our 4th string qb. wins over #1,2,8 are more than enough to get a 7-4 team in anyway especially in a 20 team field. i would challenge anyone to make a list of at larges without one team less deserving than WM.

[TwoFeathers]

Nearly locked already? Woah...easy big 2Feathers, lets not crown the king just yet. The CAA championship will be decided in the last week of the season. W&M loses one game. Then all the 4-2 CAA teams are in the fold. Even UMass and Nova have a chance to lock up the CAA AQ. Not to mention UD is still 5-1 in the CAA. Still alot of football to be played.

... that's why I said 'nearly' ;) I think Delaware (@UMass, Villanova) and Villanova (UNH, @Delaware) have tougher remaining games than W&M. One more loss is guaranteed for one of them.

[Nebuta]

ha why does it seem as though eveyone thinks wm will lose? i know theyre rivalry games but we arent the only ones with difficult games and i think we've proven ourselves in any conditions-- case in point UNH with our 4th string qb. wins over #1,2,8 are more than enough to get a 7-4 team in anyway especially in a 20 team field. i would challenge anyone to make a list of at larges without one team less deserving than WM.

haha. I was just saying. The CAA Title is not nearly a lock and will not be decided next week even if W&M wins. Its all going to come down to last week. Didnt mean to get your panties in a bunch. lol

[Nebuta]

... that's why I said 'nearly' ;) I think Delaware (@UMass, Villanova) and Villanova (UNH, @Delaware) have tougher remaining games than W&M. One more loss is guaranteed for one of them.

Nearly = Last week of the season. Got it.

[TwoFeathers]

haha. I was just saying. The CAA Title is not nearly a lock and will not be decided next week even if W&M wins. Its all going to come down to last week. Didnt mean to get your panties in a bunch. lol

Agreed, W&M, Villanova & Delaware all finish with tough conference games. I'm betting it's W&M and Delaware. With W&M winning the head-to-head.

[TwoFeathers]

Nearly = Last week of the season. Got it.

Nearly = W&M already beat both Delaware & Villanova and lead the head-to-head. Point made on the remaining conference games, but I think W&M's schedule is easier at this point. Aint the CAA great!

[Nebuta]

Possible scenarios:

W&M wins next week.
UD wins next week.
Then both are 6-1 in the CAA and W&M just needs to win out.

W&M wins next week
UD loses to UMass.
UMass still holds the tie breaker against W&M.
W&M just needs to win out to grab the title.

Either way. The title will be decided in the last week.

Sorry to get on my soapbox.

[DetroitFlyer]

How did you manage to completely miss Dayton? Dayton and Jacksonville are TIED for the PFL lead at 9-1, (7-0 PFL), 8-1 FCS. Dayton has a better win over Robert Morris as compared to Jacksonville's win over ODU. MAYBE you can argue that Jacksonville has a "better" loss to App State as compared to Dayton's loss to Duquesne. This past Saturday, Jacksonville struggled to beat Butler.... No way that Jacksonville beats Dayton this year. Unfortunately, we do not play. We will both probably win next week and finish 10-1, (8-0 PFL), 9-1 FCS. IF the PFL receives an at large bid this year, it should be Dayton over Jacksonville.

[TwoFeathers]

Possible scenarios:

W&M wins next week.
UD wins next week.
Then both are 6-1 in the CAA and W&M just needs to win out.

W&M wins next week
UD loses to UMass.
UMass still holds the tie breaker against W&M.
W&M just needs to win out to grab the title.

Either way. The title will be decided in the last week.

Sorry to get on my soapbox.

You're right about UMass... they snuck up on The Tribe in week 1, and they could do it again. However, I think their remaining two (Delaware, @URI) are also tougher than W&M's.

My soapbox is bigger than your soapbox! ;)

[WileECoyote06]

Thanks for the clarity - do you know what the tie-breaker rules are?


MEAC Football Tie-Breaker System

Two-Team or Multiple-Team Tie – If the tied teams played each other, head-to-head competition will be used to determine the representative.

For multiple ties, head-to-head record vs. all teams tied.
If a tie still exists then the following shall be used:

1) Points

A) Count six (6) points for a win against a Division I-A team;

B) Count four (4) points for a non-conference Division I-AA win;

C) Count one (1) point for a win against a Division II team, OR, subtract a point for a loss against a Division II team;

The team with the highest point total shall be the Automatic Qualifier for the NCAA Playoffs or the specified Bowl game, whichever is applicable.

2) Coin Toss

If FAMU wins the Florida Classic

By this rubric:

SCSU defeated FAMU
FAMU defeated BCU
BCU defeated SCSU = Still tied

BCU: 4 points for a win over NC Central = 4 points + win over Savannah State = 8 points
SCSU: 1 point for win over Benedict; +4 points for win over MVSU = 5 points
FAMU: 4 points for a win over Savannah State = 4 points

Kind of sucks for FAMU . . xeyebrowx

[WileECoyote06]

How did you manage to completely miss Dayton? Dayton and Jacksonville are TIED for the PFL lead at 9-1, (7-0 PFL), 8-1 FCS. Dayton has a better win over Robert Morris as compared to Jacksonville's win over ODU. MAYBE you can argue that Jacksonville has a "better" loss to App State as compared to Dayton's loss to Duquesne. This past Saturday, Jacksonville struggled to beat Butler.... No way that Jacksonville beats Dayton this year. Unfortunately, we do not play. We will both probably win next week and finish 10-1, (8-0 PFL), 9-1 FCS. IF the PFL receives an at large bid this year, it should be Dayton over Jacksonville.

I actually agree with your logic. Are teams judged by who they lose to, or who they beat?

[LeadBolt]

I actually agree with your logic. Are teams judged by who they lose to, or who they beat?

Both

[Nebuta]

Nearly = W&M already beat both Delaware & Villanova and lead the head-to-head. Point made on the remaining conference games, but I think W&M's schedule is easier at this point. Aint the CAA great! Amen. Tough league that perpares its teams for the playoffs thanks to conference play. Alot of good teams. <sidenote: there is a nightmare scenario of 6 teams ending up with a 5-3 record going into tiebreakers OUCH.>

[Go Apps]

How did you manage to completely miss Dayton? Dayton and Jacksonville are TIED for the PFL lead at 9-1, (7-0 PFL), 8-1 FCS. Dayton has a better win over Robert Morris as compared to Jacksonville's win over ODU. MAYBE you can argue that Jacksonville has a "better" loss to App State as compared to Dayton's loss to Duquesne. This past Saturday, Jacksonville struggled to beat Butler.... No way that Jacksonville beats Dayton this year. Unfortunately, we do not play. We will both probably win next week and finish 10-1, (8-0 PFL), 9-1 FCS. IF the PFL receives an at large bid this year, it should be Dayton over Jacksonville.

I think neither of them are in - but Jacksonville is ranked which helps them in the GPI - Dayton is out

[Jackman]

I actually agree with your logic. Are teams judged by who they lose to, or who they beat?

Both, but using most conference tiebreakers as a measure, the best win counts slightly more than the worst loss, all other things being equal. But if the best wins are somewhat equivalent and there's a big disparity in worst loss, the loss would be more important. I'm pretty sure the selection committee thinks that way, based on previous explanations for their choices.

[WileECoyote06]

When you examine how Dayton lost that game to Duquesne ( a TD in the waning seconds of the ball game) one might be more willing to give them the benefit of the doubt over Jacksonville.

As far as who you lose to vs who you beat. . I'd think more props should be given towards who you beat. Dayton beat a ranked/almost ranked conference champion. Jacksonville has been impressive, but they lost by 20+ points to a team. Gotta consider that if you're going to invite any PFL team at all.

[NovaHater]

ha why does it seem as though eveyone thinks wm will lose? i know theyre rivalry games but we arent the only ones with difficult games and i think we've proven ourselves in any conditions-- case in point UNH with our 4th string qb. wins over #1,2,8 are more than enough to get a 7-4 team in anyway especially in a 20 team field. i would challenge anyone to make a list of at larges without one team less deserving than WM.

I see 26 posts made so far in this thread, who is everyone ?
I don't see one person saying they think W&M will lose but for some reason you're saying everyone thinks they will. RELAX

Tribe is ranked #1, enjoy it

[R.A.]

SC State @ App State... Round Three @ The Rock.

[Fear the Bird]

W&M has the best resume in the country right now. If they lose the next 2 they are still in.

[Nebuta]

W&M has the best resume in the country right now. If they lose the next 2 they are still in.

Hell yeah. W&M is a LOCK for the playoffs. They could get blown out and still make the playoffs with a 1st round bye and home game.

[TwoFeathers]

W&M has the best resume in the country right now. If they lose the next 2 they are still in.

All this talk of The Tribe losing is going to Jinx them...

[aceinthehole]

... Dayton has a better win over Robert Morris as compared to Jacksonville's win over ODU ... We will both probably win next week and finish 10-1, (8-0 PFL), 9-1 FCS. IF the PFL receives an at large bid this year, it should be Dayton over Jacksonville.

DF - I agree with you that Dayton is likely the more deserving team given their non-conf results (win vs. RMU & loss at Duquesne), but I still think the PFL is left out of the final at-large selection.

Since both teams are undefeated in the PFL schedule and the margin of victory has little impact, just compare their non-conf results:

Dayton (2-1)
Sep 4 - W vs. Robert Morris, 28-14
Sep 11 - L at Duquesne, 31-35
Sep 25 - W vs. Central State, 45-13

Jacksonville (2-1)
Sep 4 - W at Old Dominion, 35-25
Sep 11 - L at Appalachian St, 14-45
Sep 18 - W vs. Webber, 41-0

Dayton has a very, very good win vs RMU (NEC champ & AQ winner). And the 4-point loss to Duquense, who will likely finish with a record of 7-4 overall, 5-3 NEC (good enough for 3rd place in the league behind RMU and CCSU) is not all that bad.

[danefan]

If FAMU wins the Florida Classic

By this rubric:

SCSU defeated FAMU
FAMU defeated BCU
BCU defeated SCSU = Still tied

BCU: 4 points for a win over NC Central = 4 points + win over Savannah State = 8 points
SCSU: 1 point for win over Benedict; +4 points for win over MVSU = 5 points
FAMU: 4 points for a win over Savannah State = 4 points

Kind of sucks for FAMU . . xeyebrowx

Yeah, winning head-to-head and losing a tie-breaker does suck, but I guess its right though. The Tenn. St. loss will put the nail in the coffin for FAMU. Had they won that it would have been tied and come down to a coin toss right? Or would they have gone back to head-to-head if the points were tied?

[Dane96]

When you examine how Dayton lost that game to Duquesne ( a TD in the waning seconds of the ball game) one might be more willing to give them the benefit of the doubt over Jacksonville.

As far as who you lose to vs who you beat. . I'd think more props should be given towards who you beat. Dayton beat a ranked/almost ranked conference champion. Jacksonville has been impressive, but they lost by 20+ points to a team. Gotta consider that if you're going to invite any PFL team at all.

Agreed. Though I had Jacksonville in...I only had them in because of SOS. I actually believe that Dayton has the better at-large case after what happened last week with JU-Butler.

[WMTribe90]

At this point WM is a lock to make the playoffs. There will not be 10 teams with better at-large resumes even if we lose the last two. What happens in the last two games will bdepend in large part on who is available at QB. I do think we need to win one more to assure ourselves of a first round bye.

[MacThor]

At this point WM is a lock to make the playoffs. There will not be 10 teams with better at-large resumes even if we lose the last two. What happens in the last two games will bdepend in large part on who is available at QB. I do think we need to win one more to assure ourselves of a first round bye.

I think the original "lock" post that jumped the gun said they had the AQ nearly locked up.

I just hope W&M's players think their last two games are as "easy" as the W&M posters do.

[TwoFeathers]

I think the original "lock" post that jumped the gun said they had the AQ nearly locked up.

I just hope W&M's players think their last two games are as "easy" as the W&M posters do.

Yes, 'Nearly'. Believe me, I've seen way too many W&M vs. JMU and W&M vs. Richmond games to consider either of those gimme's. They will be tough regardless. At least my thoughts going into them. However, I feel that W&M's schedule is 'technically' easier than Delaware's or Villanova's. Just my 2-one-hundredths of a dollar.

[tribefan40]

I think the original "lock" post that jumped the gun said they had the AQ nearly locked up.

I just hope W&M's players think their last two games are as "easy" as the W&M posters do.

Certainly not all WM posters are swimming in the kool aid, but if JMU and UR play like they did saturday, I don't think the Tribe will have much trouble. These games, particularly the UR game are extremely competitive every year, and I expect no less this year.

[bullseye44]

Nearly locked already? Woah...easy big 2Feathers, lets not crown the king just yet. The CAA championship will be decided in the last week of the season. W&M loses one game. Then all the 4-2 CAA teams are in the fold. Even UMass and Nova have a chance to lock up the CAA AQ. Not to mention UD is still 5-1 in the CAA. Still alot of football to be played.

Absolutely right. Two rivalry games for us to end the season with the #1 ranking on our backs does not equal two easy wins. We'll of course be the favorites, but favorites go out the window with UR (playing for a playoff berth) and JMU (playing for pride), even if they've struggled this year.

[Go Apps]

DF - I agree with you that Dayton is likely the more deserving team given their non-conf results (win vs. RMU & loss at Duquesne), but I still think the PFL is left out of the final at-large selection.

Since both teams are undefeated in the PFL schedule and the margin of victory has little impact, just compare their non-conf results:

Dayton (2-1)
Sep 4 - W vs. Robert Morris, 28-14
Sep 11 - L at Duquesne, 31-35
Sep 25 - W vs. Central State, 45-13

Jacksonville (2-1)
Sep 4 - W at Old Dominion, 35-25
Sep 11 - L at Appalachian St, 14-45
Sep 18 - W vs. Webber, 41-0

Dayton has a very, very good win vs RMU (NEC champ & AQ winner). And the 4-point loss to Duquense, who will likely finish with a record of 7-4 overall, 5-3 NEC (good enough for 3rd place in the league behind RMU and CCSU) is not all that bad.

Still believe that Jax has a better loss - but I think neither of them make it - need lots of upsets and it will determine how many at large spots will be left for 4 loss teams - again both need the CAA and MVC to start eliminating teams

[Saint3333]

Too many 7-4 teams from the SoCon, CAA, MVC, and Big Sky remain currently to considered 9-2 or 10-1 programs from the non-power conferences.

[MacThor]

My 10 projected AQs: UD, App St., EW, Jax St., WIU, RM, B-C, Lehigh, Liberty
5 Likely At-Large: W&M, Woff, MT St, MT, SEMO

"The mess for the rest": 7-4 'Nova, 7-4 UNI, 7-4 UMass, 7-4 NDSU, 7-4 UR, 7-4 GaSo, 8*-3 Cal Poly, 10-1 Jax, 8*-3 UCA, 9*-2 SC St.

* = Div II or NAIA win. I kicked a 7*-4 Sac St and 7*-4 NAU for that reason. Of my 5 likely at-larges, only W&M doesn't have an asterisk.

I don't envy the committee this year.

[Col Hogan]

19. Massachussets (6-3, 4-2 CAA)
The Games: at Delaware, R. Island

Outlook: I like the chances of Mass but they need to win out and they need a big victory this weekend over Delaware.


Lotta work...good job...

But you have our games backwards...Delaware is at UMass, and UMass is at URI...

And Massachusetts is misspelled...

[Da Coach]

22. Western Illinois (6-3, 4-2 MVC)
The Games: at S. Illinois, UNI

Outlook: Will need to win out and I believe they are in.

If WIU wins out they are the Automatic Qualifier from the Missouri Valley Football Conference, so yes, I also BELIEVE they are in if they win out!!!

[heath]

How did you manage to completely miss Dayton? Dayton and Jacksonville are TIED for the PFL lead at 9-1, (7-0 PFL), 8-1 FCS. Dayton has a better win over Robert Morris as compared to Jacksonville's win over ODU. MAYBE you can argue that Jacksonville has a "better" loss to App State as compared to Dayton's loss to Duquesne. This past Saturday, Jacksonville struggled to beat Butler.... No way that Jacksonville beats Dayton this year. Unfortunately, we do not play. We will both probably win next week and finish 10-1, (8-0 PFL), 9-1 FCS. IF the PFL receives an at large bid this year, it should be Dayton over Jacksonville.

not! the Duquesne loss ended ALL conversations,Period. Just a shame you both don't play each other this year. Sad thing is, the more 7-4 SoCon or CAA teams that start to appear, the PFL starts to become irrelevant.

[Go Apps]

22. Western Illinois (6-3, 4-2 MVC)
The Games: at S. Illinois, UNI

Outlook: Will need to win out and I believe they are in.

If WIU wins out they are the Automatic Qualifier from the Missouri Valley Football Conference, so yes, I also BELIEVE they are in if they win out!!!
Lot of info to digest hard to know all the conference races - but the message should have been win and you are in:)

[ngineer]

Interesting prognostications. I would like to see Lehigh play Robert Morris at Goodman. An all-Pennsylvania game. Of course, geography may well come into play and we get sent to UMass as in years past. A Lehigh/Liberty game is also possible.

[danefan]

I think right now the most probable scenarios is Lehigh @ Liberty and Robert Morris @ Nova.

That assumes that Liberty wins out (don't sleep on Stony Brook) and Nova wins one of the last two games - oh and BTW - both against Top 10 teams (Delaware and UNH).

If Nova does get to 7 DI wins, then I think Lehigh is going to UNH and RMU is going to Liberty. If Liberty loses too, then it will be a complete cluster....

[Go Apps]

I think right now the most probable scenarios is Lehigh @ Liberty and Robert Morris @ Nova.

That assumes that Liberty wins out (don't sleep on Stony Brook) and Nova wins one of the last two games - oh and BTW - both against Top 10 teams (Delaware and UNH).

If Nova does get to 7 DI wins, then I think Lehigh is going to UNH and RMU is going to Liberty. If Liberty loses too, then it will be a complete cluster....

You are right and with a potential few 4 loss teams will they be in round 1 playing - they should be - but the CAA right now has top 10 teams with 3 losses - it will be difficult seeding year - just imagine if there were only 16 teams....

[danefan]

You are right and with a potential few 4 loss teams will they be in round 1 playing - they should be - but the CAA right now has top 10 teams with 3 losses - it will be difficult seeding year - just imagine if there were only 16 teams....

There are going to be some major conference teams that have legit shots at making it to Frisco that wouldn't be in the playoffs without expansion. They can thank the late Brenda Weare for almost single-hanedly forcing expansion.

[PurpleOut]

Can I get some thoughts on Stephen F. Austin? Assuming they win out (which is not a given), that would put us at 9-2 with one of the losses being against Texas A&M, and then wins including a blowout of Albany, AT Northern Iowa, and AT McNeese. Just asking here, but what is it that a 9-2 SFA team hovering around the top 5, that wouldn't get them at least a first round home game? Also considering we got a home game last year.

[TypicalTribe]

I think SFA would absolutely get a home game and would be in the running for a #4/#5 seed.

[PurpleOut]

That was my next question. What are the chances we could get a seed? We obviously screwed ourselves with that Texas state debacle, and I realize a lot of teams would have to drop some games in front of us.

[jstclmet]

Using the current standings for the AB's, and the Coach's Poll for seeding reference, the below is what I come up with as a playoff picture if the playoffs started this weekend;

1st Round:
Montana vs. Western Illinois
Northern Iowa vs. Robert Morris
Massachusetts vs. Lehigh
South Carolina St. vs. New Hampshire

Note, UNH was last in as they were ranked higher than others with similar records.

2nd Round:
UMass/Lehigh winner at #1 Delaware
Stephen F. Austin vs. Southeast Missouri St.

Bethune-Cookman @ #5 Eastern Washington
MT/WIU @ #4 Wofford

SC St/UNH @ #3 Appalachian St.
Montana St. vs. Liberty

Villanova vs. Jacksonville St.
UNI/RMU @ #2 William & Mary

[Go Apps]

That was my next question. What are the chances we could get a seed? We obviously screwed ourselves with that Texas state debacle, and I realize a lot of teams would have to drop some games in front of us.

You are in a good spot - many of the top 10 teams face off so I predict at least 4 or more will lose over the next two weeks so if they win out they are in good shape - due to all the upsets this past weekend I see the winner of ASU/Wofford getting a seed - that is assuming Wofford if to win does not lose to UTC - and assuming ASU will probably lose to Florida
Next I think that the winner of SEMOst and Jax St grabs another seed again assuming no further losses..
Then you have one or two CAA schools in the mix for a seed but all could lose again over the next two weeks..but whoever comes out of there as champ will get a seed -
Finally you have a Bethune Cookman - while everyone says no way to a seed - they may be the lone unbeaten - so if I am SFA I would win out - hope BC loses - look for a MSU or EWU loss and hope the CAA cancels each other out

SFA, Montana St, and EWU have all been quietly benefiting from the upsets and the last question may be attendance how do you stack up to a MSU and EWU?

[Squealofthepig]

From
http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/2010/Internet/attendance/FCS_AVGATTENDANCE.pdf

Montana State: 14,302 average (#16) (95% full)
Stephen F. Austin: 10,534 average (#33 overall in FCS) (72.28% full)
Eastern Washington: 8,774 average (#43) (102% full)

Even with the new terf and good gates, percentage wise, EWU's stadium size could affect their seed chances (depending on how much the Eagles bid).

[JUDolphins]

I think the Butler game hurt JU's chances drastically - that was the first game all season that JU was even remotely challenged in conference play. I would love to see JU play Dayton to decide it on the field - it's shame it won't happen this year, but it will next year. I think JU's offense would be too much for Dayton as the Flyers have been giving points to most everyone in the league.

Don't sleep on them though and don't count them out of the postseason yet. There are still plenty of elimination games in the next two weeks that could break towards JU getting in over a 7-4 team.

I'll say this about the ASU game - we sent a young defense into that game and they grew up in a hurry against the best QB in the country. JU showed it can play with anyone in the country that day - a young defense just ran out of gas in the fourth quarter.

[PurpleOut]

From
http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/2010/Internet/attendance/FCS_AVGATTENDANCE.pdf

Montana State: 14,302 average (#16) (95% full)
Stephen F. Austin: 10,534 average (#33 overall in FCS) (72.28% full)
Eastern Washington: 8,774 average (#43) (102% full)

Even with the new terf and good gates, percentage wise, EWU's stadium size could affect their seed chances (depending on how much the Eagles bid).

Our attendance is up and down, had 16,000 one game then 8,000 for another. I think we had close to 14,000 for the playoff game last year. I'd guess it would be around that again. Although I hope its more, but if we play on Thanksgiving weekend I doubt the students will be there. I think our attendance record is ~26,000 from a long time ago.

[TypicalTribe]

I would say right now that the teams with the inside track for seeds are W&M, UD, Woff/ASU winner and EWU. After that, the #5 seed is a wide open race.

[BEAR]

Alright Southland Conference fans, here's a scenario for you. Not likely to happen, but it is possible.

Northwestern beats SFA.
UCA beats SHSU and McNeese.

...and all the other bricks fall into place and there are 4 teams with a 5-2 conference record. Unlikely yes, but possible. Who gets the conference title? Who gets the auto and possible at-large? xcoffeex

[McNeese75]

Alright Southland Conference fans, here's a scenario for you. Not likely to happen, but it is possible.

Northwestern beats SFA.
UCA beats SHSU and McNeese.

...and all the other bricks fall into place and there are 4 teams with a 5-2 conference record. Unlikely yes, but possible. Who gets the conference title? Who gets the auto and possible at-large? xcoffeex

When three teams are tied the AQ goes to the team that has been absent from the playoffs the longest. Obviously if that were to happen and UCA gets into the mix I would think they would take the AQ but that is just my xtwocentsx (assuming the tie breaker for 4 teams is the same as three)

There will be a lot on the line by all four teams on the 20th in Nacoland and Conway. SFA holds all the cards but if the Cowboys win out the Senior class will have 4 rings in 5 years (which has never been done in the SLC).

[PurpleOut]

NWSt would also have to lose to Nicholls. Doubt that happens, hope it does.

I would think SFA would still get an at large. McNeese can't afford another loss. We can't either, but as far as an at large, we'd still have a chance with a second conference loss.

[BEAR]

I bet things are pretty tense at the four SLC possible playoff bound team schools.

UCA HAS to beat SHSU AND McNeese to take their 7 dI wins to possibly make the playoffs.

McNeese can't afford another loss.

SFA has a little elbow room.

Northwestern (I raise my glass in honor of xbeerchugx ) has to hold that line.

Another FUN year in the SLC!

[Lehigh Football Nation]

The million dollar question is: does Central Arkansas get an at-large bid if they win out, even if SFA wins the SLC title? They'd be 8-3 with losses to Tulsa (FBS), SFA (nationally ranked) and Northwestern State (SLC title contender), but they really don't have much of a quality win beyond that and have that D-II win thrown in there as well.

My hunch is that the answer to that is probably "yes", but I think it would be a sleepless night in Conway. Specifically, it could come down to a 9-2 South Carolina State and a 8-3 Central Arkansas for that last spot.

Best way for the Bears to make it is to have SFA lose twice, and Northwestern State lose once - and win all their games, of course, a prerequisite for them to make it. Then they get the autobid. But that seems unlikely.

[TypicalTribe]

The million dollar question is: does Central Arkansas get an at-large bid if they win out, even if SFA wins the SLC title? They'd be 8-3 with losses to Tulsa (FBS), SFA (nationally ranked) and Northwestern State (SLC title contender), but they really don't have much of a quality win beyond that and have that D-II win thrown in there as well.

My hunch is that the answer to that is probably "yes", but I think it would be a sleepless night in Conway. Specifically, it could come down to a 9-2 South Carolina State and a 8-3 Central Arkansas for that last spot.

If it comes down to those two teams, then they probably get the nod, but with a GPI of 32 as of right now, if they're up against anyone else except Jacksonville, I think they'd be in trouble.

[Bear84]

I bet things are pretty tense at the four SLC possible playoff bound team schools.

UCA HAS to beat SHSU AND McNeese to take their 7 dI wins to possibly make the playoffs.

McNeese can't afford another loss.

SFA has a little elbow room.

Northwestern (I raise my glass in honor of xbeerchugx ) has to hold that line.

Another FUN year in the SLC!

UCA really needs SFA to win out and get the AQ, unless Nicholls somehow pulls the upset this Saturday. That would eliminate Northwestern State and leave UCA as the only team remaining in the SLC with 7 D1 wins, IF they win out. If SFA loses, and Northwestern St gets the AQ, then the Jacks get an at-large, and UCA would need to get a second SLC at-large bid, which is much less likely than being the #2 team (and only eligible team).