Can Rhode Island win the CAA's AQ?

[Jackman]

What I'm really asking here is "What are the new CAA tiebreaker rules?" because the rules from previous seasons were based on having 2 divisions and it's not clear how they would be applied now.

For fun though, imagine this happens:

URI beats Richmond and UMass.
W&M loses to JMU and Richmond.
Delaware loses to UMass and Villanova
Villanova loses to UNH but beats Delaware.
UMass beats Delaware but loses to URI.
UNH beats Nova and Towson.
Richmond loses to URI but beats W&M.

Final CAA Standings
URI 5-3
W&M 5-3
UDel 5-3
Nova 5-3
UMass 5-3
UNH 5-3
UR 4-4
Maine 4-4/3-5
JMU 3-5/2-6
Towson 0-8

If the the first tiebreaker is head-to-head records among the 6 tied teams, URI would finish 2nd in the CAA:

Head-to-Head
W&M 4-1
URI 3-2
UNH 2-2
UMass 2-2
Nova 1-3
UDel 1-3

But if there's some provision that all the teams involved must have played each other in order to use this tiebreaker, then this won't apply because UMass and Nova don't play each other and Delaware and UNH don't play each other.

And unlike most of these wacky CAA Championship scenarios where we decide that it doesn't matter because both teams would make the playoffs anyway, URI definitely would NOT make the playoffs as an at-large because they won't have 7 D1 wins.

So... who knows the CAA's new rules this year without divisions?

[Lehigh Football Nation]

You know........ that scenario you propose is not crazy. At all.

In addition, URI would have beaten four ranked teams to do it.

You wonder if something like GPI, Sag, or an index might be used as a tiebreaker, since head-to-head might not be a fair comparison.

[NovaWildcat]

From the CAA Media Guide on caasports.com:

1. Head-to-head competition. If three-or-more teams are involved in a tie and all have played each other, the win-loss percent- age is computed using each team’s record against the tied teams as a group rather than individually.

2. Win-loss percentage versus the highest-placed common opponents and proceeding down. When arriving at another set of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the tied teams as a group rather than individually.

3. Number of conference road wins.

4. Coin Toss.

[Tim James]

Actually I'm more curious if URI is considering not dropping down to the NEC anymore since they clearly can compete at this level. I'm hoping they will reconsider especially since its never been officially announced as a done deal that they are leaving.

[Jackman]

From the CAA Media Guide on caasports.com:

1. Head-to-head competition. If three-or-more teams are involved in a tie and all have played each other, the win-loss percent- age is computed using each team’s record against the tied teams as a group rather than individually.

Okay, so skip that...


2. Win-loss percentage versus the highest-placed common opponents and proceeding down. When arriving at another set of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the tied teams as a group rather than individually.

So, if I understand that correctly, it would be their records against Richmond and possibly Maine? If it's Richmond alone, UMass and W&M would drop out but you still couldn't use the head-to-head among URI, UDel, Nova and UNH. After that, is the next highest-placed opponent Maine/JMU or UMass/W&M (since they're no longer in the tie)? Actually it doesn't matter in this case: JMU couldn't be used because they didn't play URI, UMass couldn't be used because they didn't play Nova, and all 4 lost to W&M so that wouldn't decide anything. Meaning record against Maine would be next regardless, whereupon URI and UNH drop out and it's decided by Nova beating Delaware head-to-head. It's also the same outcome if Richmond and Maine are tied at 4-4.

That seems like a weird way to break a tie though, at least that high up in the procedure. Maybe I've got it wrong. Why wouldn't you use their records against all common opponents first, rather than just the highest-placed one? If you go straight to using just one opponent, it puts more emphasis on something like Richmond's star QB being injured halfway through the conference schedule and turning them into a completely different team against some opponents.


3. Number of conference road wins.

If it got to this, it wouldn't matter as all 6 teams would have 2 conference road wins.


4. Coin Toss.

Always fun. Was it 2006 when the A10 had a coin toss champion, or am I mis-remembering that?

[Jackman]

Actually I'm more curious if URI is considering not dropping down to the NEC anymore since they clearly can compete at this level. I'm hoping they will reconsider especially since its never been officially announced as a done deal that they are leaving.

Anonymous people on message boards who have held themselves out as having contacts inside the athletic department have said that the impression they've been given is that this is a done deal and they're just waiting for the season to end to announce it. Take that for what it's worth. I'm sure a conference championship would stop it in its tracks, but that looks just slightly out of reach no matter what happens. Maybe getting to the tiebreaker would at least give them a stay of execution for another year.



Why wouldn't you use their records against all common opponents first, rather than just the highest-placed one? If you go straight to using just one opponent, it puts more emphasis on something like Richmond's star QB being injured halfway through the conference schedule and turning them into a completely different team against some opponents.

Realized the answer to my question after thinking about it: it's because if you bypass the head-to-head tiebreaker on the technicality that 1 team didn't play 1 other team, it rewards the teams that beat the weak teams but lost to the strong teams. For example, in the above scenario, the two teams that would have done the worst in head-to-head record ended up being the top two, whereas the team that would have done best in head-to-head was the first one eliminated. This makes sense, because the only way you can beat all your rivals but still end up tied in overall record is if you slipped up against a weaker team. So the intent of the CAA rule is to try to offset that effect by at least looking at the record against the strongest common opponent first. It just doesn't make much difference in a rare 6-way tie.

[Old Cage]

If all the games break his way this Saturday, I can just see Jackman cheering on Rhody the next Saturday over UMass so he can see this play out.

xlolx

[LeadBolt]

Perhaps each team can play the team they didn't play in the regular season and take the margin of victory. I would love a shot at Towson in that scenario...

[Lehigh Football Nation]

From the CAA Media Guide on caasports.com:

1. Head-to-head competition. If three-or-more teams are involved in a tie and all have played each other, the win-loss percent- age is computed using each team’s record against the tied teams as a group rather than individually.

2. Win-loss percentage versus the highest-placed common opponents and proceeding down. When arriving at another set of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the tied teams as a group rather than individually.

3. Number of conference road wins.

4. Coin Toss.

So 1) doesn't apply since in the six-way tie they didn't all play each other. So it goes to 2).

It looks like only Maine played everybody involved in the tie (JMU didn't play URI and Towson didn't play William & Mary).

This would eliminate URI from the title chase, unfortunately, since Maine beat both URI and New Hampshire.

For the record, this would leave William & Mary, Delaware, Nova, and UMass.

Next tiebreaker goes to JMU, who played all four. In your scenario, William & Mary would have lost to JMU, eliminating them, leaving Delaware, Nova, and UMass.

I think Towson played Delaware, Nova, and UMass, but it doesn't matter since in your scenario they all would have would have beaten the Tigers.

Then it comes to conference road wins. I'm assuming Delaware, Nova and UMass all have the same number.

So the CAA title and autobid would come down to a coin flip between Delaware, Nova, and UMass, if my calculations are correct.

[TwoFeathers]

So 1) doesn't apply since in the six-way tie they didn't all play each other. So it goes to 2).

It looks like only Maine played everybody involved in the tie (JMU didn't play URI and Towson didn't play William & Mary).

This would eliminate URI from the title chase, unfortunately, since Maine beat both URI and New Hampshire.

For the record, this would leave William & Mary, Delaware, Nova, and UMass.

Next tiebreaker goes to JMU, who played all four. In your scenario, William & Mary would have lost to JMU, eliminating them, leaving Delaware, Nova, and UMass.

I think Towson played Delaware, Nova, and UMass, but it doesn't matter since in your scenario they all would have would have beaten the Tigers.

Then it comes to conference road wins. I'm assuming Delaware, Nova and UMass all have the same number.

So the CAA title and autobid would come down to a coin flip between Delaware, Nova, and UMass, if my calculations are correct.

... my brain is hurting...

So W&M and Delaware would have to lose their final 2, and URI would have to win their final 2 (@Richmond, UMass) just to tie. It's possible.

[Jackman]

I think you're forgetting Richmond, LFN.

URI's problem is they can only tie W&M and Delaware and lost head-to-head to both, so they need a massive pile-up at the top to get past the first tiebreaker. Even then though, if NovaWildcat's info is right, they can't quite win.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Jackman, you're right. Let me revise this with Richmond in the mix:

1) doesn't apply since in the six-way tie they didn't all play each other. So it goes to 2).

Richmond played everybody in the tie, followed by Maine, then JMU. (JMU didn't play URI and Towson didn't play William & Mary).

Richmond eliminates UMass and William & Mary in this scenario, leaving New Hampshire, Delaware, URI and Villanova.

Maine then eliminates URI and New Hampshire from the title chase, leaving Delaware and Villanova.

Next tiebreaker goes to JMU, who lost to both. Same with Towson.

Then it comes to conference road wins. I'm assuming Delaware and Nova.

So the CAA title and autobid would then come down to a coin flip between Delaware and Nova despite the fact that Delaware and Nova played head-to-head.