Week 10 Playoff Prognostications

[TexasTerror]

The most recent playoff prognostications, courtesy of TT.

And criticize me all you want, but it sure is fun to take a stab at this thing and I'd encourage you guys to try as well! xnodx

PREVIOUS PROGNOSTICATIONS
Memorial Day (http://anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?t=69543)
End of June (http://anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?69953-End-of-June-Playoff-Prognostications)
Start of August (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?70430-Start-of-August-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 1 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?73204-Week-1-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 2 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?73887-Week-2-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 3 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?74546-Week-3-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 4 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?75010-Week-4-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 5 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?75648-Week-5-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 6 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?76077-Week-6-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 7 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?76683-Week-7-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 8 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?77185-Week-8-Playoff-Prgonostications/)
Week 9 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?77640-Week-9-Playoff-Prognostications/)

AUTOMATIC BIDS (10)

Big Sky: Eastern Washington
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: William & Mary
MEAC: Bethune Cookman
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Southeast Missouri
Patriot: Lehigh
SoCon: Wofford
Southland: Northwestern State

AT-LARGE BIDS (10)
Big Sky: Montana, Montana State
Colonial: Delaware, UMass, Villanova
Missouri Valley: Western Illinois, North Dakota State
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Southern: Appalachian State
Southland: Stephen F. Austin

OPENING ROUND GAMES
Northwestern State @ Montana
Robert Morris @ Liberty
Lehigh @ Villanova
Bethune Cookman @ North Dakota State

SECOND ROUND GAMES

Robert Morris/Liberty winner @ #1 William & Mary
UMass @ Appalachian State

Bethune Cookman/North Dakota State winner @ #4 Wofford
Jacksonville State @ #5 Delaware

Lehigh/Villanova winner @ #2 Eastern Washington
Western Illinois @ Stephen F. Austin

Northwestern State/Montana winner @ #3 Southeast Missouri
Montana State @ Northern Iowa

Notes...
I'm picking NWST over SFA for two reasons - Demons improve weekly and I'd love to see two teams in the playoffs...

Changed my seeds dramatically based on the results of this weekend - namely Jax State and Appy State losses... probably over-reacted, but wanted to get commentary going!

Had some difficulty in slotting my games this week - but should also help stir the pot some!

[slostang]

If Cal Poly and Montana win out they both will be 8-3 (Cal Poly is 7-3 and wrap up their regular season this week at home against UC Davis). Cal Poly has a win over Montana. Why does Montana get in over Cal Poly?

[BlueHenSinfonian]

You have W&M appearing in the playoffs without getting a bid (and at the #1 seed no less) and Delaware getting the CAA autobid (and an at-large, hey, I'm all for UD getting a double elimination chance in the tourny, but I think some other schools would complain) yet at the #5 seed.

EDIT -

Ah, fixed. Still, I think Delaware and William and Mary get the first two seeds if both UD and W&M win out.

[umassfan]

Man that UMass/W&M/App bracket is rough.

[umassfan]

You have the robert morris vs liberty game twice

[Maroon&White]

You have the robert morris vs liberty game twice

They'll have to split their squad and play both places.

[CopperCat]

You have EWU getting the autobid in the BSC (which means you are assuming UM will beat MSU), but lest you forget MSU beat BOTH of the teams that took down UM. Yes, I realize that the Brawl is in fizzoula, but this team finds ways to win every week. The defense is playing better, and they have two whole weeks to prepare, rest, and heal.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

You have EWU getting the autobid in the BSC (which means you are assuming UM will beat MSU), but lest you forget MSU beat BOTH of the teams that took down UM. Yes, I realize that the Brawl is in fizzoula, but this team finds ways to win every week. The defense is playing better, and they have two whole weeks to prepare, rest, and heal.

Yes, but MSU beat those teams (EWU and Weber) in Bozeman. History (not just recent), suggests MSU doesn't play well on the road, let alone WA-Griz. You also got smoked by a team that UM and EWU both beat. And that was a road game for you guys.

[jmufan999]

sadly, i do think you're right about the CAA "only" getting 4 teams in. i seriously doubt UR wins out and that would be the only way it could happen. sigh...

oh well, i'm on the W&M bandwagon from here on out. or, after we play them next week. THEN i'll be on their bandwagon.

[CopperCat]

Yes, but MSU beat those teams (EWU and Weber) in Bozeman. History (not just recent), suggests MSU doesn't play well on the road, let alone WA-Griz. You also got smoked by a team that UM and EWU both beat. And that was a road game for you guys.

History (very recent history in fact) also suggests that MSU has only lost ONE FCS game on the road all season, and nearly won it's playup game which was also on the road. NAU was a bad loss, but that also came at a time when the defense was very depleted and the offensive line wasn't in much better condition. This team may be scrappy, but they find a way to win. They committed 3 turnovers today and still managed to give up just 10 points to a Weber team that has hanging with the top teams in the conference. Diminish their record all you want. The Cats are 8-2 for a reason: they have a knack for winning. Throw history out the window. This team doesn't care about what is behind them, they care about what is in front of them. And right now the BSC AQ and a championship are theirs for the taking.

EWU played NAU at home (maybe you had forgotten that), as did UM. That dome is never easy to play in for anyone.

[TheBisonator]

If NDSU wins the next 2, I guarantee they host a playoff game for the first time in 18 years. Go 1-1 and there's a chance we may not get in. It's almost black and white with our scenario.

[soccerguy315]

as a W&M fan, I don't really like that half of the bracket... Delaware and ASU? bleh. That said if Delaware wins out I think they will have the #2 spot locked up.

please put ASU on their side of the bracket, haha

[Screamin_Eagle174]

History (very recent history in fact) also suggests that MSU has only lost ONE FCS game on the road all season, and nearly won it's playup game which was also on the road. NAU was a bad loss, but that also came at a time when the defense was very depleted and the offensive line wasn't in much better condition. This team may be scrappy, but they find a way to win. They committed 3 turnovers today and still managed to give up just 10 points to a Weber team that has hanging with the top teams in the conference. Diminish their record all you want. The Cats are 8-2 for a reason: they have a knack for winning. Throw history out the window. This team doesn't care about what is behind them, they care about what is in front of them. And right now the BSC AQ and a championship are theirs for the taking.

EWU played NAU at home (maybe you had forgotten that), as did UM. That dome is never easy to play in for anyone.

So if your offense had trouble producing in the Dome, how do you reckon they're going to play in WA-Griz? It's not like your offense was depleted with injuries against NAU. At the risk of being cliche, excuses are like buttholes; we all have 'em, and they all stink. Beating WSU would have been a nice win, but you didn't. You also nearly lost to UNC (at home) and ISU (on the road). The latter tells me you're going to have a lot of trouble in Missoula. Either way, we're all entitled to our opinions. It's not unreasonable to argue a W or L for MSU in Missoula. xtwocentsx

[emilimo701]

I still think ASU ends up with a seed. And obviously picking SEMO to beat the (FCS) Gamecocks... but I think their chances of getting a 1, 2, or 3 seed are negligible.

I would say that this is the toughest week of the season to do this. You should have just made this your "bye week" hah. not that you did a bad job, just the combination of restrictions at this point and up-in-the-air-ness make it tricky.

[umassfan]

as a W&M fan, I don't really like that half of the bracket... Delaware and ASU? bleh. That said if Delaware wins out I think they will have the #2 spot locked up.

please put ASU on their side of the bracket, haha

Why based off this projection would you say App St? I would think youd be afraid of UMass as well with the fact they are one of your two losses and the only FCS loss you have.

[jcmanson]

RMU @ Liberty and Lehigh @ Villanova are both rematches. All 4 teams can be bus trips, so I'd think the committee would switch it to avoid the 2 rematches. Probably would be RMU @ Nova and Lehigh @ Liberty.

[aceinthehole]

RMU @ Liberty and Lehigh @ Villanova are both rematches. All 4 teams can be bus trips, so I'd think the committee would switch it to avoid the 2 rematches. Probably would be RMU @ Nova and Lehigh @ Liberty.

Exactly what I was thinking. I hate the idea of 1 rematch, but 2 is stupid.

I also expect the NCAA to send the NEC to play a CAA team if possible.

[Edge316007]

So despite controlling our destiny next weekend, we go from conference champs to at large bid?

[millwoga1]

So despite controlling our destiny next weekend, we go from conference champs to at large bid?

yeah evidently thats what he is saying. It's an opinion.

[CAAisBOSS]

So despite controlling our destiny next weekend, we go from conference champs to at large bid?

yes... because if wm wins out we have head to head? it doesnt really matter if we both win out who gets the auto and who is an at large, it just matters what seeds the commitee gives us.

[soccerguy315]

yes... because if wm wins out we have head to head? it doesnt really matter if we both win out who gets the auto and who is an at large, it just matters what seeds the commitee gives us.

pretty sure that the poster you are responding to is an ASU fan... from Boone and looks like AE with the ball in his picture.

[CAAisBOSS]

pretty sure that the poster you are responding to is an ASU fan... from Boone and looks like AE with the ball in his picture.

my mistake... just saw the delaware helmet at a glance

[UTCOWBOY71]

IF Northwestern beats SFA AND McNeese wins out - then McNeese gets the bid - Correct?? DO you see Texas State and/or Central Arkansas beating McNeese??

[PolyMom]

Why would Montana get in over Cal Poly if we have a win over them and we have the same record? Anybody

[Tod]

Why would Montana get in over Cal Poly if we have a win over them and we have the same record? Anybody

Because TT forgot about you. ;)

[CopperCat]

So if your offense had trouble producing in the Dome, how do you reckon they're going to play in WA-Griz? It's not like your offense was depleted with injuries against NAU. At the risk of being cliche, excuses are like buttholes; we all have 'em, and they all stink. Beating WSU would have been a nice win, but you didn't. You also nearly lost to UNC (at home) and ISU (on the road). The latter tells me you're going to have a lot of trouble in Missoula. Either way, we're all entitled to our opinions. It's not unreasonable to argue a W or L for MSU in Missoula. xtwocentsx

Then I really don't see why we are having this discussion.

Go Thunderbirds.

[Tod]

So despite controlling our destiny next weekend, we go from conference champs to at large bid?

TT thinks that Wofford will beat ASU. Too hard to figure out?

[McNeese75]

Because TT forgot about you. ;)

xlolx Ya think?????

[malibudude]

Why would Montana get in over Cal Poly if we have a win over them and we have the same record? Anybody

First welcome to AGS. Well, they (Montana) have a long FCS playoff history, a bit of pedigree and a 25,000+ seat stadium. Not saying they would get the nod for the last seat on the plane if all things are equal, but they have a lot going for them . Poly has the head to head win, which is important, but UM would have the intangibles. FCS playoff fields are 4/5ths what you did on the field and 1/5th politics, $$$, not perfect but better than polls/BCS issues with FBS football.

[millwoga1]

Why would Montana get in over Cal Poly if we have a win over them and we have the same record? Anybody

Welcome to the site! The example you speak about above is a classic example of getting "Woffed". That's just what happens when you are not Montana, App. State or from the CAA.

[Edge316007]

TT thinks that Wofford will beat ASU. Too hard to figure out?

Good catch, thank you. I wasn't sure what he was getting at. xrolleyesx

Wofford wins, based on what? The fact that they're on the road? The fact that they barely scraped by Samford themselves? Maybe it's the matchup history.

One little trip up that in the grand scheme of things basically means nothing to us and suddenly we're no longer the favorites xlolx Ok that's fine with me.

And yes, I do go to App.

[LeadBolt]

I would rather have the #2 seed in this bracket over #1!

[Edge316007]

Also let me add that if Wofford does win out, they're getting the #2 seed. I'm not sure how you project Wofford to beat App but still somehow manage to finish below EWU and SEMST in seeding.

[Prominentwon]

IF Northwestern beats SFA AND McNeese wins out - then McNeese gets the bid - Correct?? DO you see Texas State and/or Central Arkansas beating McNeese??

This is what I was wondering as well.

If Northwestern beats SFA and McNeese wins out, McNeese takes the Southland. Not Northwestern St. McNeese owns the tiebreaker there.

The only explanation is that he's saying that McNeese will lose to either Texas St. or Central Arkansas.

I wouldn't mind a little clarity as well.

[Edge316007]

I'm very curious to see where a 9-2 App team sits. If that loss comes to Florida then I think they're just on the outside of seeding, but a strong case could be made since that Wofford win would count a lot. If that loss comes to Wofford, it would be very interesting to see if they'd give us a seed as an at large with a huge FBS win on the resume.

[caribbeanhen]

I'll take Rhode Island as the favorite if matched up with 5 or 6 of the eventual playoff teams

[McNeese75]

I'll take Rhode Island as the favorite if matched up with 5 or 6 of the eventual playoff teams

Of course you will, to say anything else might indicate the Hens are not all they are cracked up to be after a 7 point win over them at home.

[caribbeanhen]

Of course you will, to say anything else might indicate the Hens are not all they are cracked up to be after a 7 point win over them at home.

The Rams have a tough D and are a hard hitting team, I think they would match up well with the MEAC and Patriot League as well as MV, They are #24 on the Dunkel. An interesting game would be the high flying SFA offense against the Rhode Island Defense, but we'll never see it

[Cincy App]

The Rams have a tough D and are a hard hitting team, I think they would match up well with the MEAC and Patriot League as well as MV, They are #24 on the Dunkel. An interesting game would be the high flying SFA offense against the Rhode Island Defense, but we'll never see it

The mighty Rhode Island that lost to Fordham? Pass.

[heath]

RMU @ Liberty and Lehigh @ Villanova are both rematches. All 4 teams can be bus trips, so I'd think the committee would switch it to avoid the 2 rematches. Probably would be RMU @ Nova and Lehigh @ Liberty.
Good call,.....do you think the committee can keep it to bus trips in the 1st round?

[caribbeanhen]

The mighty Rhode Island that lost to Fordham? Pass.

how about the RI that beat UNH and Nova, the original comment was they would be better than 5 or 6 playoff teams IMHO