You Are The Committee

[Schfourteenteen]

You have 1 spot left.

James Madison at 6-5 - 5 losses to top 15 ranked teams by a combined 35 points, 1 win over a top 15 team, 1 win over a ranked FBS team.

SC State at 8-2 - 31 point loss to FBS team, 14 point loss to top 15 ranked conference champ. Conference is rated among the worst in FCS, but SC State wins by 15 points in all wins other than Hampton(W10-7)

Forget the 7 game minimum rule.

Who would you take?

[NHwildEcat]

SC State...

While JMU would have a lot of good losses...they would still have a lot of losses...I would never be able to let a team in over another when the loss differential is what it is.

[TexasTerror]

I'd hate to be on the committee to set a precedent and take a six-win team.

The FCS prides itself on not rewarding mediocrity and average teams at 6-5 (or 6-6 in 12 game years) while their co-horts from the FBS routinely play 6-6 teams into bowl games...

This opens a can of worms for down the line and I'm not about to include a six-win team in my prognostications!

[darell1976]

Tough call but I would take SC State.

[mcveyrl]

I don't even think it's that tough of a call. No way a 6-5 JMU should get in. They would be 3-5 in conference. A losing conference record should be an automatic disqualifier.

[danefan]

Yikes - I'd take SCST.

(But I'd take Jacksonville over both ;) )

[WestCoastAggie]

JMU would have a 3-5 CAA record but they beat Va. Tech.

SC-State has only one FCS loss but didn't play anybody.

Man. This is a tough one...

[danefan]

BTW, the only reason I would pick SCST over JMU is because, as mcervyl said above, I can't find any reason to put a team with a losing conference record in the playoffs.

That has to be some kind of prerequisite.

[WMTribe90]

Close call, neither is really worthy. Obviously, JMU SOS is much higher, but at some point you have to find a way to win a few of those close games against ranked opponents. SC ST played a much weaker schedule, but at least took care ofbusiness for themost part. I'd probably go with SCST (even though I think JMU is the better team, especially when healthy).

[UNH Fanboi]

Since the OP said "Forget the 7 game minimum rule" I assume this question is essentially asking who the better team is (since that's the committee's job). For the people picking SC State, what do you think JMU's record against SC State's schedule would be, and what do you think SC State's record would be against JMU's schedule? The Dallas Cowboys are 1-6, but is SC State better than them? That might be a ridiculous comparison, but not completely. The teams that SC State has played may be "FCS" in name, but it is nowhere near the level of competition played by JMU. The MEAC is consistently ranked by computers as the weakest conference in FCS.

I'm fine with the policy that you need 7 wins to make the playoffs, but let's not pretend that an 8-2 team is automatically better or more deserving than a 6-5 team.

[biggie]

I'd find another team.

But SCSt if I absolutely had to pick from those 2.

[DetroitFlyer]

Yikes - I'd take SCST.

(But I'd take Jacksonville over both ;) )

I would take Dayton over all of the above.

[NHwildEcat]

Since the OP said "Forget the 7 game minimum rule" I assume this question is essentially asking who the better team is (since that's the committee's job). For the people picking SC State, what do you think JMU's record against SC State's schedule would be, and what do you think SC State's record would be against JMU's schedule? The Dallas Cowboys are 1-6, but is SC State better than them? That might be a ridiculous comparison, but not completely. The teams that SC State has played may be "FCS" in name, but it is nowhere near the level of competition played by JMU. The MEAC is consistently ranked by computers as the weakest conference in FCS.

I'm fine with the policy that you need 7 wins to make the playoffs, but let's not pretend that an 8-2 team is automatically better or more deserving than a 6-5 team.

As a Cowboys fan, I can tell you that SC State is better then Dallas.

[WileECoyote06]

A losing conference record bothers me as well. I'd take SCSU.

[ws66370]

The whole idea of "good losses" is ridiculous.

SCST easy.

[jmufan999]

if you're asking who the better team is, it's JMU. the MEAC gets killed in the playoffs every year (just because App St didn't play well against them doesn't make them good, it makes ASU playing down to their level, and yes i watched the game).... the MEAC gets their chance EVERY YEAR to compete. EVERY YEAR they don't. if the question is "who is more likely to win a national title if they make it in", there is no way you can pick SC St... no way you can do that and still claim to use logic.

that said, i don't think a 6-5 JMU team would get in... not because they'd lose out to a MEAC team but because they'd lose out to someone else. i'm not sure we can make it to 6 wins anyway.

[jmufan999]

put it this way... there is no way the MEAC gets 2 teams in. ZERO percent chance.

[MacThor]

Neither.

[Schfourteenteen]

I threw out the 7 game rule for one reason - if there were ever a situation in which the committee discarded the rule, it would happen here. Not only was JMU's FBS win over a ranked team, that ranked team will likely finish ranked and possibly play in a BCS Bowl. I'm not deep in FCS History, but has that ever happened before? I doubt it.

[NHwildEcat]

If you were to put the top 20 teams in no matter what then JMU would have a shot...but so woulf most of the CAA. SOS can only get you so far, at some point you have to hold a team responsible for winning their own schedule...

[McNeese75]

SC State

[Edge316007]

SC State very easily. There's being in a strong conference then there's having a losing record in that conference.

[aceinthehole]

I'd have to pass on JMU with 5 losses.

I'd look for some 7 win teams (even if they have 1 sub D-I win) with good SOS, then you'd have to put SC St. and the PFL schools in the discussion togeather.

[BlueHenSinfonian]

I'm with Danefan, I'd put in Jacksonville, but having to pick one of the two, I'd go with SC State. Even if JMU is the better team, which I believe they are, losing a certain number of games should bar you from the playoffs.

[SalukiJim]

How about looking at it this way? SC State and their conference brethren cry about not getting in the playoffs, and nobody knows what they can do. We all know the strength of the CAA, and JMU certainly has shown flashes of that this year. But make SC State & co "put up or shut up" by giving them the bid? Then if they get throttled in the first round, we all have something to judge their conference by...I'm just sayin'

[Squealofthepig]

I like SalukiJim's thinking, and would take it one further - have a stated policy that conference records in the playoffs can influence future committees' choices. That would not be popular, but it would give teams outside the major conferences extra incentive to win in the playoffs. If a conference like the CAA consistently advances multiple teams throughout the playoffs, the committee could then make a more legitimate choice of taking JMU this year.

Of course, that rule doesn't exist, and it would be hated more than instant replay, but interesting to throw out there.

For me, I'd take SC State. As a voter, one thing I look at very critically is where a team loses. JMU not only has quite a few losses, they have two at home. I look at a home loss as more of 1.5 losses than 1, as if you can't win at home, can you really say you deserve to show you're the best in the land?

[WileECoyote06]

Squealofthepig,

That rule actually does exist. The NCAA FCS Playoff committee can rescind a conference's auto-bid for lack of competitiveness. From the 2009 Handbook:


Automatic Qualification Criteria/Process
The Division I Football Championship Committee will annually make the determination of which eligible conference will receive automatic qualification. The following criteria are used when determining which conferences shall receive annual automatic qualification for the NCAA Division I Football Championship:
1. Non-conference records; 2. Strength of non-conference opponents; 3. Recent postseason history; and 4. Competition against Football Bowl Subdivision opponents.
The Division I Championships/Competition Cabinet policy stipulates that for the Division I Football Championship at least 50 percent of the bracket shall be reserved for at-large selections, and no more than 50 percent of the bracket shall be available for automatic qualification of eligible conferences.

http://web1.ncaa.org/web_files/champ_handbooks/football/2009/09_1AA_Football.pdf

Haven't seen the 2010 Handbook yet.

[UAalum72]

But WilE this rule only applies when there are fewer spots than leagues qualifying for them, not a problem for 2010. No conf. has ever been dropped because of competitiveness alone.

BTW I think 4 is included in 2, and 4 shouldn't count unless the game is at least close; no extra credit should be given for playing FBS if you're losing by 50 (ie make it acutal 'competition' not just showing up).

[WileECoyote06]

But WilE this rule only applies when there are fewer spots than leagues qualifying for them, not a problem for 2010. No conf. has ever been dropped because of competitiveness alone.

BTW I think 4 is included in 2, and 4 shouldn't count unless the game is at least close; no extra credit should be given for playing FBS if you're losing by 50 (ie make it acutal 'competition' not just showing up).

Correct, thus the recent expansion. Too bad the Great West collapsed on itself. That could have been the matching league the Pioneer needed to get them to expand to 24 teams.

[X-Factor]

I would also pick SC State, even though if you matched the two teams up I think JMU would take that game with ease by the 3rd quarter. It is just one of those situations where the better team has too many losses.

[ejjones]

I'm just curious....where does the consensus come from that JMU would win a head-to-head matchup w/ease? They're 4-4, with one Quality win (VaTech). I'm suprised someone wasted their time with this post. JMU probably will not win another game this season.

[danefan]

I'm just curious....where does the consensus come from that JMU would win a head-to-head matchup w/ease? They're 4-4, with one Quality win (VaTech). I'm suprised someone wasted their time with this post. JMU probably will not win another game this season.


I'd take JMU by 21 points over SCST. Over by halftime.

[DSUrocks07]

I'd take JMU by 21 points over SCST. Over by halftime.

Ok, just because?

[DSUrocks07]

I'm just curious....where does the consensus come from that JMU would win a head-to-head matchup w/ease? They're 4-4, with one Quality win (VaTech). I'm suprised someone wasted their time with this post. JMU probably will not win another game this season.

Thing is, that's probably the biggest quality win by any FCS team in the last three years. VT will most likely win their conference.

[danefan]

Ok, just because?

Just an opinion. JMU is significantly better than SCST.

Once again. My opinion and I'm sure there are varying opinions on it.

[ejjones]

Just an opinion. JMU is significantly better than SCST.

Once again. My opinion and I'm sure there are varying opinions on it.

Let me guess....how many games have you actually seen SCSU play? But it's your opinion though, so really it doesn't mean anything to anyone, but yourself. I will admit, I have never seen Albany play. Have you ever made it to the playoffs? How many conference titles do you have? Just curious?

[danefan]

Let me guess....how many games have you actually seen SCSU play? But it's your opinion though, so really it doesn't mean anything to anyone, but yourself. I will admit, I have never seen Albany play. Have you ever made it to the playoffs? How many conference titles do you have? Just curious?

I have seen SCST play once this year (FAMU) and a couple times last year thanks to Disney's affinity for the HBCUs.

Albany has not been in the FCS playoffs. We've been the DIII playoffs when we were there. We've only been DI since 1999 and only began offering scholarships in 2006 (up to 36 full rides now). We're 78-52 in Division I and our Coach (Bob Ford) is the 2nd winningest active DI coach behind Jo Pa and has the most wins of any active FCS coach.

We've won the NEC 4 times since 2000 (2002, 2003, 2007 and 2008).

[JMUNJ08]

I have seen SCST play once this year (FAMU) and a couple times last year thanks to Disney's affinity for the HBCUs.

Albany has not been in the FCS playoffs. We've been the DIII playoffs when we were there. We've only been DI since 1999 and only began offering scholarships in 2006 (up to 36 full rides now). We're 78-52 in Division I and our Coach (Bob Ford) is the 2nd winningest active DI coach behind Jo Pa and has the most wins of any active FCS coach.

We've won the NEC 4 times since 2000 (2002, 2003, 2007 and 2008).

xbowxxhurrayxxbowx

xpopcornxxpopcornx

[JMUNJ08]

I'm just curious....where does the consensus come from that JMU would win a head-to-head matchup w/ease? They're 4-4, with one Quality win (VaTech). I'm suprised someone wasted their time with this post. JMU probably will not win another game this season.

Funny...can't find any quality wins for SC St...thats the reason for this thread. VT/Liberty wins are better than ANY for SC St. and I would take the Nova L by 7 on the road and 3 @ home to UD over some of the SC St WINS too.

Therefore, a TOUGH .500 team or a big fluffy 9-2? It's a legit question

I would have to agree with other posters that the committee cannot take JMU just because of what they could set up for future years. SC St. would still have to fight with anyone else @ 7-4 though...

[walliver]

If we are going to waive the 7 win rule then we need to look at all the 6-5 teams.

An early season win over a good team (VT) that got off to a slow start before hitting their stride does not earn a team with a mediocre record a spot in the playoffs.

The MEAC may not have had any success in recent playoffs, but the Patriot League (other then Colgate in 2003) and OVC haven't accomplished much either.

[WestCoastAggie]

That Ga. Southern win basically places this discussion to bed. If the Eagles win out, they are in over JMU, SC State and Jacksonville.

[danefan]

That Ga. Southern win basically places this discussion to bed. If the Eagles win out, they are in over JMU, SC State and Jacksonville.

Very true.

[theasushow]

stick a fork in this thread...JMU is done.

[LouiseBFree]

Central Arkansas is two home wins away from an 8-3 record and seven DI victories. If so, can't be left out of the conversation.

[R.A.]

Since the OP said "Forget the 7 game minimum rule" I assume this question is essentially asking who the better team is (since that's the committee's job). For the people picking SC State, what do you think JMU's record against SC State's schedule would be, and what do you think SC State's record would be against JMU's schedule? The Dallas Cowboys are 1-6, but is SC State better than them? That might be a ridiculous comparison, but not completely. The teams that SC State has played may be "FCS" in name, but it is nowhere near the level of competition played by JMU. The MEAC is consistently ranked by computers as the weakest conference in FCS.

I'm fine with the policy that you need 7 wins to make the playoffs, but let's not pretend that an 8-2 team is automatically better or more deserving than a 6-5 team.

When fans of certain schools talk about how weak the MEAC is, all I do is laugh.

Back in 2006, it took the Walter Payton Award winner's late game heroics for New Hampshire to squeak by Hampton 41-38 in the playoffs. Hampton lost to SC State in the conference that season, and SC State didn't have Rickey Santos at quarterback.

Even when our conference is down, we still field competitive teams... what App. State fan is going to argue that SC State doesn't deserve a playoff spot?

[UNH Fanboi]

When fans of certain schools talk about how weak the MEAC is, all I do is laugh.

Back in 2006, it took the Walter Payton Award winner's late game heroics for New Hampshire to squeak by Hampton 41-38 in the playoffs. Hampton lost to SC State in the conference that season, and SC State didn't have Rickey Santos at quarterback.

Even when our conference is down, we still field competitive teams... what App. State fan is going to argue that SC State doesn't deserve a playoff spot?

The MEAC's top 1-2 teams are usually competitive, but the bottom teams are absolutely attrocius. So you have to take that into account when comparing records. You can't just say "Oh, MEAC Team A is 8-2 and CAA Team B is 6-5, so MEAC Team A must be better."

No one has yet to take a stab at what SC State's record in the CAA would be. Please name which teams they would beat and which teams they would lose to.

[HensRock]

No one has yet to take a stab at what SC State's record in the CAA would be. Please name which teams they would beat and which teams they would lose to.

I'll take a stab.

SC State:
Probably loses to Delaware
Probably loses to UNH
Probably loses to Villanova
Probably loses to UMass
Might lose to Richmond

JMU:
Definitely loses to Delaware
Definitely loses to UNH
Definitely loses to Villanova
Definitely loses to UMass
Definitely loses to Richmond

[Eight Legger]

A better question would be, How are you going to fit 8 CAA teams in the playoffs? Because if you take JMU in this scenario, you'd pretty much have to take the teams in league who are ahead of them and/or who beat them, which would most likely be 7 teams. You can't skip 3- or 4-loss CAA teams to take a 5-loss one.

[bigchocolate]

I'll take a stab.

SC State:
Probably loses to Delaware
Probably loses to UNH
Probably loses to Villanova
Probably loses to UMass
Might lose to Richmond

JMU:
Definitely loses to Delaware
Definitely loses to UNH
Definitely loses to Villanova
Definitely loses to UMass
Definitely loses to Richmond

Hen, I think that is a fair prediction. If the game is in Orangeburg you would still be right most of the time but with the type of defense SC is playing on anygivensaturday we would get the upset but not consistently.

[UNH Fanboi]

1. I never said that JMU should definitely be taken over SC State. I was merely pointing out that if the 7-win rule is out the window and we're simply picking the "better" team, the analysis should go a bit deeper than "8 wins is better than 6." Not all wins and losses are created equal.

2. As I said earlier, I am fine with the 7-win rule, which eliminates the all-CAA playoff strawman that get's thrown around anytime someone suggests that *GASP* a 6-5 CAA team might be better than a team from another conference with a better record.

[WestCoastAggie]

Bubble Teams:
Western Illinois 6-3 (4-2)
N. Dakota State 6-3 (3-3)
Montana 6-3 (5-2)
Cal Poly 7-3
GA. Southern 5-4 (3-3)
SC. State 7-2 (5-1)
Jacksonville U. 9-1 (7-0)
McNeese St. 5-4 (4-1)
Northwestern St. 5-4 (4-1)
Richmond 5-4 (3-3)
New Hampshire 5-4 (3-3)
Furman 5-4 (3-3)
Sac. State 5-4 (4-3)
Weber State 5-4 (4-3)
Northern Arizona 5-4 (3-3)
Dayton 9-1(7-0)

To me, there are only 4 At-Large spots left. Which 4 teams on this list get those spots?

[theasushow]

Bubble Teams:
Western Illinois 6-3 (4-2)
N. Dakota State 6-3 (3-3)
Montana 6-3 (5-2)
Cal Poly 7-3
GA. Southern 5-4 (3-3)
SC. State 7-2 (5-1)
Jacksonville U. 9-1 (7-0)
McNeese St. 5-4 (4-1)
Northwestern St. 5-4 (4-1)
Richmond 5-4 (3-3)
New Hampshire 5-4 (3-3)
Furman 5-4 (3-3)
Sac. State 5-4 (4-3)
Weber State 5-4 (4-3)
Northern Arizona 5-4 (3-3)
Dayton 9-1(7-0)

To me, there are only 4 At-Large spots left. Which 4 teams on this list get those spots?

xbangx
i drank too much last night to try and analyze all these team's chances...

[Appattk]

Bubble Teams:
Western Illinois 6-3 (4-2)
N. Dakota State 6-3 (3-3)
Montana 6-3 (5-2)
Cal Poly 7-3
GA. Southern 5-4 (3-3)
SC. State 7-2 (5-1)
Jacksonville U. 9-1 (7-0)
McNeese St. 5-4 (4-1)
Northwestern St. 5-4 (4-1)
Richmond 5-4 (3-3)
New Hampshire 5-4 (3-3)
Furman 5-4 (3-3)
Sac. State 5-4 (4-3)
Weber State 5-4 (4-3)
Northern Arizona 5-4 (3-3)
Dayton 9-1(7-0)

To me, there are only 4 At-Large spots left. Which 4 teams on this list get those spots?

I think it would go like this...

Montana
WIU
NDSU
Cal Poly.....

[ejjones]

I'll take a stab.

SC State:
Probably loses to Delaware
Probably loses to UNH
Probably loses to Villanova
Probably loses to UMass
Might lose to Richmond

JMU:
Definitely loses to Delaware
Definitely loses to UNH
Definitely loses to Villanova
Definitely loses to UMass
Definitely loses to Richmond

It's difficult to make the assertion what SCSU record would be against the CAA. Probability is a 50/50 chance. So, every place you say, "Probably loses to XXXX", I would say, "Probably wins against XXX". Also, as in probability and statistics...each future result has no bearing on the past occurrences.

[ejjones]

Bubble Teams:
Western Illinois 6-3 (4-2)
N. Dakota State 6-3 (3-3)
Montana 6-3 (5-2)
Cal Poly 7-3
GA. Southern 5-4 (3-3)
SC. State 7-2 (5-1)
Jacksonville U. 9-1 (7-0)
McNeese St. 5-4 (4-1)
Northwestern St. 5-4 (4-1)
Richmond 5-4 (3-3)
New Hampshire 5-4 (3-3)
Furman 5-4 (3-3)
Sac. State 5-4 (4-3)
Weber State 5-4 (4-3)
Northern Arizona 5-4 (3-3)
Dayton 9-1(7-0)

To me, there are only 4 At-Large spots left. Which 4 teams on this list get those spots?

Well, out of all these teams, one play on national televsion on Thursday (when the committee will be watching); can only help, unless we play like $hi&. 7:30 PM ET South Carolina State at Morgan State

[putter]

Bubble Teams:
Western Illinois 6-3 (4-2)
N. Dakota State 6-3 (3-3)
Montana 6-3 (5-2)
Cal Poly 7-3
GA. Southern 5-4 (3-3)
SC. State 7-2 (5-1)
Jacksonville U. 9-1 (7-0)
McNeese St. 5-4 (4-1)
Northwestern St. 5-4 (4-1)
Richmond 5-4 (3-3)
New Hampshire 5-4 (3-3)
Furman 5-4 (3-3)
Sac. State 5-4 (4-3)
Weber State 5-4 (4-3)
Northern Arizona 5-4 (3-3)
Dayton 9-1(7-0)

To me, there are only 4 At-Large spots left. Which 4 teams on this list get those spots?


I would have to think the committee would have to default to the 7 D1 wins this year to try and sort this out. If Montana doesn't win out they will not have 7 D1 wins as would some other teams. Not having 7 doesn't prevent you from getting in but with that many teams it may be a place to start.

[soccerguy315]

It's difficult to make the assertion what SCSU record would be against the CAA. Probability is a 50/50 chance. So, every place you say, "Probably loses to XXXX", I would say, "Probably wins against XXX". Also, as in probability and statistics...each future result has no bearing on the past occurrences.


It's only 50/50 if all components are equal... if an NFL team plays a high school team, they both do not have equal chances of winning.

[blukeys]

It's difficult to make the assertion what SCSU record would be against the CAA. Probability is a 50/50 chance. So, every place you say, "Probably loses to XXXX", I would say, "Probably wins against XXX". Also, as in probability and statistics...each future result has no bearing on the past occurrences.

Pure probablility depends on outcomes that are random. Sporting events are not random. Certain teams or athletes in fact are better than others. Playing a superior football team is not the same as rolling the dice in craps.

For instance if a FCS team were playing a Divsion 3 team I would not consider it to be a 50/50 chance. (Unless of course the FCS team is from the Pioneer conference.) This is despite the fact that in probablility theory each team goes into the event with an equal chance of winning.

I have a 50/50 chance of beating the heavyweight boxing champion of the world according to probability theory. However in the event of that matchup I would advise you to bet against me. xnodxxnodxxnodx

[heath]

I'd take JMU by 21 points over SCST. Over by halftime.

It would now take JMU 2 games to get to the 21 pt mark, as their QB and company struggle to to anything on offense. Looks like the committee will not have to worry about a 6 win JMU program until maybe next year.Can't wait to hear MM and his excuses again this week.