At-Large Discussion

[JUDolphins]

Here's a look at who is in the conversation for the last at-large bids with the following teams assumed in the tournament:

Big Sky: E. Wash., Mont. St.
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: W&M, Villanova, Delaware, New Hampshire
MEAC: Bethune
MVFC: No. Iowa
NEC: Robert Morris
OVC: JSU, SEMO
Patriot: Lehigh
Southland: SFA
SoCon: ASU, Wofford

I think everyone on here pretty much is in agreement with that group. That leaves four spots for at-large bids...here are the candidates:

* - means they MUST WIN OUT to be eligible for at-large bid

Big Sky
*Montana (6-3) – vs. UND, vs. Montana State
Weber State (5-3) – at Montana State, at No. Arizona, at Texas Tech

Colonial
*James Madison (4-4) – at Richmond, vs. W&M, at Maine
UMass (5-3) – vs Maine, vs Delaware, at Rhode Island
*Richmond (4-4) – vs James Madison, vs Rhode Island, at W&M

MEAC
S.C. State (6-2) – vs. Howard, at Morgan State, at N.C. A&T

Missouri Valley
Western Illinois (6-3) – at So. Illinois, vs. UNI
N.D. State (5-3) – vs. So. Illinois, vs. S.D. State, at Missouri St.
*Mo. State (4-4) – at S.D. State, at UNI, vs. N.D. State

PFL:
JU (8-1) - at Butler, vs. Campbell
Dayton (8-1) - vs. Drake, at Marist

Southland:
*Sam Houston (4-4) – vs. McNeese, at Central Ark., vs. Texas State
*McNeese (4-4) – at S.H. St., vs. Texas St., at Central Ark.
C. Ark. (5-3) – at Texas St., vs. S.H. St., vs. McNeese

Southern:
Chattanooga (5-3) – at Auburn, vs. Samford, at Wofford
*Ga. Southern (4-4) – vs. Appy St., at W. Carolina, at Furman
*Furman (4-4) – vs. W. Carolina, at Elon, vs. Ga. Southern


It looks very promising for Jacksonville to get an at-large bid now.

[FargoBison]

Samford, Indiana State and NW State already can't reach 7 DI wins.

[SonuvaHenx2]

Samford, Indiana State and NW State already can't reach 7 DI wins.

Not a requirement for playoff consideration...

[JUDolphins]

Duly noted...updated.

ISU's only chance is to win the AQ...sorry for that.

[FargoBison]

Not a requirement for playoff consideration...

Who is the last at-large that got in without 7 DI wins?

[TheValleyRaider]

Here's a look at who is in the conversation for the last at-large bids with the following teams assumed in the tournament:

Big Sky: E. Wash., Mont. St.
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: W&M, Villanova, Delaware, New Hampshire
MEAC: Bethune
MVFC: No. Iowa
NEC: Robert Morris
OVC: JSU, SEMO
Patriot: Lehigh
Southland: SFA
SoCon: ASU, Wofford

Patriot League is very much a two-team race between Lehigh and Holy Cross. Winner of Saturday's game in Worcester probably gets the title

[danefan]

New Hampshire is far from a lock.

They've got to go 2-1 with games at home against W&M and Towson and one at Nova. 1-2 and they'll end up 6-5.

If they both go 7-4, they're both in IMO.

What happens if UMass and UNH go 2-1 and Richmond wins out?

Then you've got a lot of CAA teams knocking on the door and probably all ahead of the lower conferences.

[bisonguy]

Not a requirement for playoff consideration...

Not a requirement, but can be a criteria:


3. The won-lost record of a team will be scrutinized to determine a team’s strength of
schedule; however, less than seven Division I wins may place a team in jeopardy of
not being selected;
4. The committee may give more consideration to those teams that have played all
Division I opponents

[PantherRob82]

Who is the last at-large that got in without 7 DI wins?
When was the last 20 team playoff?

[malibudude]

Um, Cal Poly is 6-3 with wins over two of the teams on your "at large" list. Poly plays at South Dakota next week followed
by UC Davis at home

[danefan]

Um, Cal Poly is 6-3 with wins over two of the teams on your "at large" list. Poly plays at South Dakota next week followed
by UC Davis at home

CP has to win out to get 7 DI wins and the way they struggled last night against a bad St. Francis team, I wouldn't in the least bit be surprised to see a loss to either SD or Davis.

But if CP wins out, they are in, IMO.

[jlandrus23]

Indiana State has a shot to get the AQ spot.

[Redwyn]

Here's a look at who is in the conversation for the last at-large bids with the following teams assumed in the tournament:

Big Sky: E. Wash., Mont. St.
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: W&M, Villanova, Delaware, New Hampshire
MEAC: Bethune
MVFC: No. Iowa
NEC: Robert Morris
OVC: JSU, SEMO
Patriot: Lehigh
Southland: SFA
SoCon: ASU, Wofford

I think everyone on here pretty much is in agreement with that group. That leaves four spots for at-large bids...here are the candidates:



Not even close to a lock for Liberty. Still two undefeated teams in Big South play. Can't even say Liberty is necessarily a better skill program after both SBU and Liberty slipped multiple times this season.....

[TBIRDSFN10]

"CP has to win out to get 7 DI wins and the way they struggled last night against a bad St. Francis team, I wouldn't in the least bit be surprised to see a loss to either SD or Davis.

But if CP wins out, they are in, IMO".

I do not understand why 7 DI wins is a clear cut way to keep a team out. If Poly wins out and SUU wins out, I do not see how Poly gets in over SUU. If SUU wins out (which won't be easy @ E. Wash in 2 weeks) SUU would have won 6 straight wins, 2 against ranked teams, and 1 against the Big Sky Champs on the road.

I am not saying SUU should be in if they win out, but I would be disappointed in the commitee if they put a 8-3 POLY in over 7-4 SUU because I believe SUU has the better resume.
PS can SUU get a couple of votes in the AGS, people voting for Cal POLY and McNeese should at least have SUU at 25.

[slostang]

"CP has to win out to get 7 DI wins and the way they struggled last night against a bad St. Francis team, I wouldn't in the least bit be surprised to see a loss to either SD or Davis.

But if CP wins out, they are in, IMO".

I do not understand why 7 DI wins is a clear cut way to keep a team out. If Poly wins out and SUU wins out, I do not see how Poly gets in over SUU. If SUU wins out (which won't be easy @ E. Wash in 2 weeks) SUU would have won 6 straight wins, 2 against ranked teams, and 1 against the Big Sky Champs on the road.

I am not saying SUU should be in if they win out, but I would be disappointed in the commitee if they put a 8-3 POLY in over 7-4 SUU because I believe SUU has the better resume.
PS can SUU get a couple of votes in the AGS, people voting for Cal POLY and McNeese should at least have SUU at 25.

I agree that SUU is deserving, but don't forget that when Cal Poly traveled to Cedar City (a 12 hour bus ride) it was their 5th straight game in 5 different states. Cal Poly lossed by 13 and missed two FGs and turned the ball over on downs at the 2 yard line when they bobbled the snap. If Cal Poly wins the next two weeks they will have 7 DI win. If SUU wins the next two weeks they will have only 6. Both Cal Poly and SUU may have scheduled themselves out of the playoffs.

[Gil Dobie]

Here's a look at who is in the conversation for the last at-large bids with the following teams assumed in the tournament:

Big Sky: E. Wash., Mont. St.
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: W&M, Villanova, Delaware, New Hampshire
MEAC: Bethune
MVFC: No. Iowa
NEC: Robert Morris
OVC: JSU, SEMO
Patriot: Lehigh
Southland: SFA
SoCon: ASU, Wofford

I think everyone on here pretty much is in agreement with that group. That leaves four spots for at-large bids...here are the candidates:


UNI is not a lock, they have 1 conference loss and play 3 teams that have 2 conference losses as of today, to finish off the season. If Indiana St, WIU or MSU win the rest of their games, they win the conference. If UNI loses 2 more games they are out.

[TBIRDSFN10]

I agree that SUU is deserving, but don't forget that when Cal Poly traveled to Cedar City (a 12 hour bus ride) it was their 5th straight game in 5 different states. Cal Poly lossed by 13 and missed two FGs and turned the ball over on downs at the 2 yard line when they bobbled the snap. If Cal Poly wins the next two weeks they will have 7 DI win. If SUU wins the next two weeks they will have only 6. Both Cal Poly and SUU may have scheduled themselves out of the playoffs.

I am with you SLOStang about allowing the deserving teams be in, not the teams that do not have 1 quality win on their resume. Sorry Robert Morris and Liberty is not exactly a quality win. If you have 8 or 9 DI wins but they are against teams that are not very good then how do they deserve a shot. A 7-4 Texas St. with a win of SFA derverse it more than some of the teams that are being placed on the At-Large.

A MEAC school, PFL should have a win against a top 2 or 3 team from a legit confernce to be considered. There is just a lot of teams in peoples top 20 based off of past years, has anyone looked at Montana's wins and losses, the only teams they beat by double digits is N. Colorado, Idaho St., and Western ST. and they were 9 in the AGS and 7 in the SNV and FCP. Does anyone look at this stuff, when they vote? Maybe I am wrong, but that is my opinion.

[aceinthehole]

Here's a look at who is in the conversation for the last at-large bids with the following teams assumed in the tournament:

Big Sky: E. Wash., Mont. St.
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: W&M, Villanova, Delaware, New Hampshire
MEAC: Bethune
MVFC: No. Iowa
NEC: Robert Morris
OVC: JSU, SEMO
Patriot: Lehigh
Southland: SFA
SoCon: ASU, Wofford

I think everyone on here pretty much is in agreement with that group.

The NEC AQ is still open. RMU can clinch it with a win this week, but a CCSU win puts the Blue Devils in the driver's seat.

[NovaWildcat]

It is amazing that JMU beat Virginia Tech (who is ranked again and a top the ACC Coastal) and has 4 conference losses. Considering they have to win out at Richmond and Maine and play W&M at home I'd say they probably wont get to the playoffs.

[TBIRDSFN10]

It is amazing that JMU beat Virginia Tech (who is ranked again and a top the ACC Coastal) and has 4 conference losses. Considering they have to win out at Richmond and Maine and play W&M at home I'd say they probably wont get to the playoffs.


I don't know how much of a difference this makes, but Va Tech was coming off a emotional loss on Monday night to Boise St. Then had to turn around and play on Saturday. If they gave Va Tech, the mandatory day off they only had 3 days to prepare for JMU before they had to play Saturday morning. If you think that is a big factor for the VA Tech loss, then JMU has not had a very impressive season. Just some close losses to some really good teams.

[heath]

wow, thought NCAA basketball had it bad. Good luck choosing and seeding 20 teams to satisfy most. BUT.............will be a great playoff no matter.

[ODUsmitty]

For what its worth, Jacksonville had the most effective offense I have seen all year - better than WM and Cal-Poly (our other losses). They had team speed and their receivers always found holes in our secondary.

I know the Pioneer League is not held in high esteem, but after comparing them to a 5-2 Hampton team (that we defeated at HU) that is contending in the MEAC, JU was CLEARLY superior...

[heath]

For what its worth, Jacksonville had the most effective offense I have seen all year - better than WM and Cal-Poly (our other losses). They had team speed and their receivers always found holes in our secondary.

I know the Pioneer League is not held in high esteem, but after comparing them to a 5-2 Hampton team (that we defeated at HU) that is contending in the MEAC, JU was CLEARLY superior...
smitty, agree if Jacksonville goes 10-1, they should be in. PFL getting zero respect because of the the bottom 2/3rds of the league.

[TBIRDSFN10]

smitty, agree if Jacksonville goes 10-1, they should be in. PFL getting zero respect because of the the bottom 2/3rds of the league.

Sorry I am not buying it 10-1 Jacksonville in. There best win was at ODU week 1, they were blown out by APP ST., and had very close games with San Diego and Drake. If they allow Jacksonville in, a decent pioneer team has to schedule 1 average team on the road and squeek by, then have 2 DII teams, and then run the table and make the playoffs. 11-0 with a win against an average team on the road does not mean they should get in. Jacksonville cannot schedule a ODU, a DII team, and get blown out by APP st and think they will make the playoffs. Are you kidding. Why should they be in?

[danefan]

Sorry I am not buying it 10-1 Jacksonville in. There best win was at ODU week 1, they were blown out by APP ST., and had very close games with San Diego and Drake. If they allow Jacksonville in, a decent pioneer team has to schedule 1 average team on the road and squeek by, then have 2 DII teams, and then run the table and make the playoffs. 11-0 with a win against an average team on the road does not mean they should get in. Jacksonville cannot schedule a ODU, a DII team, and get blown out by APP st and think they will make the playoffs. Are you kidding. Why should they be in?

JU has done all they could do with their schedule (short of beating App State) but it just might not be enough.

I will say though, if they do get in, whoever they play in the opening round is in trouble. JU is just flat out good. Unfortunately they didn't give themselves a good chance with that schedule.

[NovaWildcat]

I've never seen a PFL team play but I'll ask this: Why in the world is Jacksonville not playing Dayton this year? Someone in that league office should have the foresight to schedule these two teams against each other if the normal process they use says otherwise.

Just looking at the scores, it seems no one in that conference besides those two has beaten a non DII outside of conference. Maybe one of those two schools are actually very strong, but week-to-week their schedule is cake.

[TBIRDSFN10]

JU has done all they could do with their schedule (short of beating App State) but it just might not be enough.

I will say though, if they do get in, whoever they play in the opening round is in trouble. JU is just flat out good. Unfortunately they didn't give themselves a good chance with that schedule.

We will see what happens but San Diego went 10-0 a couple of years ago and did not get a selection, so we will see.

[Saint3333]

JU has to pray that there aren't enough 7-4 teams from the CAA, SoCon, etc. to fill the 10 at-large spots. There is no way a 7-4 team in those conferences are less deserving than the JU team I saw in Boone this year.

[emilimo701]

I've never seen a PFL team play but I'll ask this: Why in the world is Jacksonville not playing Dayton this year? Someone in that league office should have the foresight to schedule these two teams against each other if the normal process they use says otherwise.

Just looking at the scores, it seems no one in that conference besides those two has beaten a non DII outside of conference. Maybe one of those two schools are actually very strong, but week-to-week their schedule is cake.

because they have ten teams. there would be uneven number of home/away games if they scheduled everybody to play everybody. in college football conferences of 7, 9, 11, or 12/14(split into two "divisions") run the smoothest

[emilimo701]

JU has done all they could do with their schedule (short of beating App State) but it just might not be enough.

I will say though, if they do get in, whoever they play in the opening round is in trouble. JU is just flat out good. Unfortunately they didn't give themselves a good chance with that schedule.

i'm too lazy to check the box score, but i remember reading a thread on this game with people saying that (despite the final score) it was close into the 4th quarter

[danefan]

i'm too lazy to check the box score, but i remember reading a thread on this game with people saying that (despite the final score) it was close into the 4th quarter

Some App State fans have said that. I didn't see the game so I can't say. The box score doesn't really show it, but we all know that stats don't tell the whole story.

[emilimo701]

to me it seems like Jacksonville's biggest threats are Western Illinois, Montana, Cal Poly and South Carolina State for one of the last spots in. If a couple of those teams loses another game, JU's chances look pretty good. However, if a team or two like Furman, McNeese State, Weber State, Richmond, James Madison runs the table, Jacksonville still might end up left on the outside. Still three huge weeks left to be played.

How does that bridge AQ work in the BCS? They should implement something like that for FCS playoffs...

[FargoBison]

You have to beat somebody, Jacksonville might have a great a team but we'll never know. If they want to find out how good they are I would advise them to join a league that actually wants to compete with the rest of the FCS. Or at least schedule three tough non-conference games, no non-DI teams.

[NovaWildcat]

because they have ten teams. there would be uneven number of home/away games if they scheduled everybody to play everybody. in college football conferences of 7, 9, 11, or 12/14(split into two "divisions") run the smoothest

I understand this, but what I'm asking is why the conference wouldn't schedule these two teams against each other? Since there is no AQ, you'd think they'd want to do everything possible to get a representative in the playoffs. If your two best teams don't play each other then it's much harder for the selection committee to determine that one of the teams is worthy. I know that everyone can't play everyone but I would think you would "arrange" for potential conf. champs to play each other...I doubt it was a complete surprise that these teams are solid?

[danefan]

We will see what happens but San Diego went 10-0 a couple of years ago and did not get a selection, so we will see.

Yes, but that was a 16-team field. its a whole new ballgame this year. If the teams from the stronger conferences keep knocking each other around, JU may just sneak in.

I'd personally take JU over South Carolina State and I know some people have SCST in their predictions.

I really think JU's life comes down to what happens in the CAA. If UMass and UNH don't take care of business the next few weeks we'll have a much different picture.

[danefan]

I understand this, but what I'm asking is why the conference wouldn't schedule these two teams against each other? Since there is no AQ, you'd think they'd want to do everything possible to get a representative in the playoffs. If your two best teams don't play each other then it's much harder for the selection committee to determine that one of the teams is worthy. I know that everyone can't play everyone but I would think you would "arrange" for potential conf. champs to play each other...I doubt it was a complete surprise that these teams are solid?

Its based on a rotation I think. Just didn't pan out this year for them to play. It would have been much better though, for JU to have played Dayton.

[GoAgs72]

Regardless of any other criteria, SUU deserves to be in over Cal Poly. SUU is one tough team and the Great West Conference champion. The rest of the Great West is mediocre this year with Cal Poly the best of the also-rans. This year was not the best year to go to 20 teams in the playoffs - I don't think there's enough play-off caliber teams to fill out the brackets.

[danefan]

to me it seems like Jacksonville's biggest threats are Western Illinois, Montana, Cal Poly and South Carolina State for one of the last spots in. If a couple of those teams loses another game, JU's chances look pretty good. However, if a team or two like Furman, McNeese State, Weber State, Richmond, James Madison runs the table, Jacksonville still might end up left on the outside. Still three huge weeks left to be played.

How does that bridge AQ work in the BCS? They should implement something like that for FCS playoffs...

There is a Bridge AQ in the FCS. Been around for 3 or 4 seasons now.

FCS Bridge:
8 DI wins - JU will have that
2 wins against AQ teams - JU can't meet this criteria this year (bad scheduling)
Average ranking of 20 or higher in Coaches Poll, TSN Poll and Modified GPI (Laz, Self, Wolfe, Ashburn, Massey) - JU was 29th coming into this week (according to my own calc).

[TBIRDSFN10]

You have to beat somebody, Jacksonville might have a great a team but we'll never know. If they want to find out how good they are I would advise them to join a league that actually wants to compete with the rest of the FCS. Or at least schedule three tough non-conference games, no non-DI teams.

Exactly, I don't think they should even be considered unless they beat somebody in a real conference. A 6-5 New Ham or 7-4 Cal Poly 7-4 SUU deserve it more than them. They do not play a FCS schedule so how can they make the FCS playoffs. The William and Mary or Villinova is not going to a bowl game this year even though they can beat many FBS teams. Sorry just don't agree with putting them in.

Also want about the GPI do they really use that to determine the playoffs, because Jacksonville is 32 and Dayton is 55 way out of the playoff discussion

[danefan]

Exactly, I don't think they should even be considered unless they beat somebody in a real conference. A 6-5 New Ham or 7-4 Cal Poly 7-4 SUU deserve it more than them. They do not play a FCS schedule so how can they make the FCS playoffs. The William and Mary or Villinova is not going to a bowl game this year even though they can beat many FBS teams. Sorry just don't agree with putting them in.

Also want about the GPI do they really use that to determine the playoffs, because Jacksonville is 32 and Dayton is 55 way out of the playoff discussion

Why doesn't JU play an FCS schedule? The PFL is an FCS league. They played one Sub-DI game. Pretty sure a whole bunch of teams in FCS play DII teams. The best eligible teams should be in the playoffs - no matter what league they play in. The question here should not be whether they play in the PFL - its irrelevant. The question should be whether the committee has enough evidence to conclude that they are one of the best 10 teams with 7 DI wins that did not earn an AQ. That's where the PFL schedule does come into play. It probably does not provide enough evidence to support that.

And the Committee does not officially use the Standard GPI for anything. Its possible some members look at it, but they don't use it officially for anything.

[BlueHenSinfonian]

Exactly, I don't think they should even be considered unless they beat somebody in a real conference. A 6-5 New Ham or 7-4 Cal Poly 7-4 SUU deserve it more than them. They do not play a FCS schedule so how can they make the FCS playoffs. The William and Mary or Villinova is not going to a bowl game this year even though they can beat many FBS teams. Sorry just don't agree with putting them in.

Also want about the GPI do they really use that to determine the playoffs, because Jacksonville is 32 and Dayton is 55 way out of the playoff discussion

I think JU scheduled pretty well. You can't schedule a FCS game much tougher than App State, and Old Dominion is solid this year as well. I can forgive one DII team, plenty of very good FCS teams have a DII game on the schedule for various reasons. I might put in UNH before JU if UNH can run the table of their final games, but I'd put them in before Cal Poly or SUU. Cal Poly and SUU both have losses to a mediocre Texas State team, and SUU has a Div II Dixie State on the schedule.

[heath]

Exactly, I don't think they should even be considered unless they beat somebody in a real conference. A 6-5 New Ham or 7-4 Cal Poly 7-4 SUU deserve it more than them. They do not play a FCS schedule so how can they make the FCS playoffs. The William and Mary or Villinova is not going to a bowl game this year even though they can beat many FBS teams. Sorry just don't agree with putting them in.

Also want about the GPI do they really use that to determine the playoffs, because Jacksonville is 32 and Dayton is 55 way out of the playoff discussion
GPIs are based on the competition win- loss, so playing in the PFL ANY team could be low, but be deserving. Put App ST in PFL this year with the team they have finishing 10-1 with a loss to OOC Florida,are you gonna hold it against them for being in THAT league or reward them for their season?

[TBIRDSFN10]

Why doesn't JU play an FCS schedule? The PFL is an FCS league. They played one Sub-DI game. Pretty sure a whole bunch of teams in FCS play DII teams. The best eligible teams should be in the playoffs - no matter what league they play in. The question here should not be whether they play in the PFL - its irrelevant. The question should be whether the committee has enough evidence to conclude that they are one of the best 10 teams with 7 DI wins that did not earn an AQ. That's where the PFL schedule does come into play. It probably does not provide enough evidence to support that.

And the Committee does not officially use the Standard GPI for anything. Its possible some members look at it, but they don't use it officially for anything.

SUU played San Diego a PFL team, they did not have scholarships. I do not know if the entire league is like that, but if they are then they are not FCS. If you play 9 games versus non-scholarship teams is that a FCS schedule?

[heath]

SUU played San Diego a PFL team, they did not have scholarships. I do not know if the entire league is like that, but if they are then they are not FCS. If you play 9 games versus non-scholarship teams is that a FCS schedule?

The winner of the Patriot league,which is an AQ,and no scholarships, will have played a schedule against 7 non-scholarship teams,SO....., whats your point?Do away with the AQs and take the top 20 by ranking?Not a bad idea.

[Dane96]

TBird...give it up. Just because you dont have scholarships...doesnt mean you aren't an FCS team. Ask the Patriot League and the Ivy's.

Oh wait...

[TBIRDSFN10]

GPIs are based on the competition win- loss, so playing in the PFL ANY team could be low, but be deserving. Put App ST in PFL this year with the team they have finishing 10-1 with a loss to OOC Florida,are you gonna hold it against them for being in THAT league or reward them for their season?

If APP st. had that schedule in the PFL they did not want to make the playoffs. They would schedule, a three game combination of Texas St., James Madison, Wofford, Umass, Weber St., Cal Poly, UC Davis, Furman, McNeese, or some other middle to high teams in other conferences to give them a shot to prove themselves. If they lose all three their out, if they could pull off 2 wins they are probably in that simple.

Like I said before if you let them in, a pioneer team can get dominated by a team that pays them to play, then beat 1 or 2 DII teams and go 10-1 and make the playoffs. This would be a bad message to send to allow them in.

I really cannot understand why they are even being discussed

[TBIRDSFN10]

TBird...give it up. Just because you dont have scholarships...doesnt mean you aren't an FCS team. Ask the Patriot League and the Ivy's.

Oh wait...

Do the Ivy's make playoffs?

[NovaWildcat]

So who has seen JU and can comment to their play-level?

[Dane96]

TBIRD... The IVY's dont go to the playoffs by choice. If they chose to go...bet your *** they would get an AQ.

[heath]

Do the Ivy's make playoffs?

THEY ARE TOO GOOD

[RabidRabbit]

If you are in a D-I school, and you play football at less than the FBS 85 schollie level, then you are at a FCS school.

[heath]

If APP st. had that schedule in the PFL they did not want to make the playoffs. They would schedule, a three game combination of Texas St., James Madison, Wofford, Umass, Weber St., Cal Poly, UC Davis, Furman, McNeese, or some other middle to high teams in other conferences to give them a shot to prove themselves. If they lose all three their out, if they could pull off 2 wins they are probably in that simple.

Like I said before if you let them in, a pioneer team can get dominated by a team that pays them to play, then beat 1 or 2 DII teams and go 10-1 and make the playoffs. This would be a bad message to send to allow them in.

I really cannot understand why they are even being discussed

Schedules are not made in July for that season but years in advance.Don't penalize the team for the weak schedule,let them prove themselves if they are 10-1.

[TBIRDSFN10]

TBIRD... The IVY's dont go to the playoffs by choice. If they chose to go...bet your *** they would get an AQ.

Dane, I am not saying JU is not a good team, but my personal belief is you should have at least 1 win against a team that is considered or in the playoffs to be a playoff team, unless you are lucky enough to get a AQ. There is a reason why the PFL does not have an AQ, because if they did we wouldn't be having this discussion.

[Cincy App]

GPIs are based on the competition win- loss, so playing in the PFL ANY team could be low, but be deserving. Put App ST in PFL this year with the team they have finishing 10-1 with a loss to OOC Florida,are you gonna hold it against them for being in THAT league or reward them for their season?

If ASU was in the PFL, they still would not be in the playoff discussion if they only played one quality FCS team and lost 45-14. I saw ASU play Jacksonville, Chattanooga, Elon and Furman. Jacksonville was easily the weakest team out of this group (and I expect all will be left out on selection Sunday). IMO, Jacksonville's only shot is if there are not 10 at-large contenders with 7 wins from stronger conferences remaining at the end of the regular season.

Also, while the MEAC may not be much stronger than PFL, SC State has represented well in the postseason in the last 2 years (unofficially it does seem to matter). Also, BCC, FAMU and Hampton are likely stronger than any PFL team that Jacksonville has faced this year.

Personally, I hope Jacksonville gets in. It makes ASU's resume look stronger. I just don't expect it to happen.

[BlueHenSinfonian]

If ASU was in the PFL, they still would not be in the playoff discussion if they only played one quality FCS team and lost 45-14. I saw ASU play Jacksonville, Chattanooga, Elon and Furman. Jacksonville was easily the weakest team out of this group (and I expect all will be left out on selection Sunday). IMO, Jacksonville's only shot is if there are not 10 at-large contenders with 7 wins from stronger conferences remaining at the end of the regular season.

Also, while the MEAC may not be much stronger than PFL, SC State has represented well in the postseason in the last 2 years (unofficially it does seem to matter). Also, BCC, FAMU and Hampton are likely stronger than any PFL team that Jacksonville has faced this year.

Personally, I hope Jacksonville gets in. It makes ASU's resume look stronger. I just don't expect it to happen.

Losing two times in the first round is a funny definition of having represented anything well. JU did beat ODU, who could probably easily beat B-CU, FAMU, or Hampton.

[heath]

If ASU was in the PFL, they still would not be in the playoff discussion if they only played one quality FCS team and lost 45-14. I saw ASU play Jacksonville, Chattanooga, Elon and Furman. Jacksonville was easily the weakest team out of this group (and I expect all will be left out on selection Sunday). IMO, Jacksonville's only shot is if there are not 10 at-large contenders with 7 wins from stronger conferences remaining at the end of the regular season.

Also, while the MEAC may not be much stronger than PFL, SC State has represented well in the postseason in the last 2 years (unofficially it does seem to matter). Also, BCC, FAMU and Hampton are likely stronger than any PFL team that Jacksonville has faced this year.

Personally, I hope Jacksonville gets in. It makes ASU's resume look stronger. I just don't expect it to happen.

Jacksonville beat ODU by 10 earlier this year AND ODU just smacked Hampton this past week, So? ..............

[UNHWildCats]

"CP has to win out to get 7 DI wins and the way they struggled last night against a bad St. Francis team, I wouldn't in the least bit be surprised to see a loss to either SD or Davis.

But if CP wins out, they are in, IMO".

I do not understand why 7 DI wins is a clear cut way to keep a team out. If Poly wins out and SUU wins out, I do not see how Poly gets in over SUU. If SUU wins out (which won't be easy @ E. Wash in 2 weeks) SUU would have won 6 straight wins, 2 against ranked teams, and 1 against the Big Sky Champs on the road.

I am not saying SUU should be in if they win out, but I would be disappointed in the commitee if they put a 8-3 POLY in over 7-4 SUU because I believe SUU has the better resume.
PS can SUU get a couple of votes in the AGS, people voting for Cal POLY and McNeese should at least have SUU at 25.
It is my opinion that the only way ba 6 division I win team gets in is at the cost of a 7 division I win team from MEAC, Big South, OVC, Northeast, Patriot, Pioneer.

For example. If Montana doesnt get 7 division I wins and finishes 7-4. I can see them still getting an at-large bid if say it comes down to a 10-1 Jacksonville or Montana.

However say its a 7-4 Massachusetts vs a 7-4 Montana, I think UMass gets it with hardly any discussion.

Elite teams definately arent deaqd at 7-4 with 6 division I wins... especially with the way everything could playout this year.

[theasushow]

So who has seen JU and can comment to their play-level?

I was at the ASU game...JU played inspired for about a half, ASU only had 17-7 halftime lead. But even then ASU seemed in control. The 2nd half was a complete blowout, ASU scored on 4 of 5 possessions and were on the 5 yard line when time expired (they took a knee, could have easily ran up the score and made it 52-14). Total yardage was 620 to 257. I will say that JU has clearly improved since that game and could probably keep it within 3 touchdowns or so if they played today, still see JU as a 5th-6th place SOCON team or a 7th-8th place CAA team.

[Dane96]

Dane, I am not saying JU is not a good team, but my personal belief is you should have at least 1 win against a team that is considered or in the playoffs to be a playoff team, unless you are lucky enough to get a AQ. There is a reason why the PFL does not have an AQ, because if they did we wouldn't be having this discussion.

Actually, that isnt the reason the PFL doesn't have the AQ. Learn, listen...and then speak. And I am far from a PFL fan...but that team is deserving IMHO.

[TBIRDSFN10]

I think JU scheduled pretty well. You can't schedule a FCS game much tougher than App State, and Old Dominion is solid this year as well. I can forgive one DII team, plenty of very good FCS teams have a DII game on the schedule for various reasons. I might put in UNH before JU if UNH can run the table of their final games, but I'd put them in before Cal Poly or SUU. Cal Poly and SUU both have losses to a mediocre Texas State team, and SUU has a Div II Dixie State on the schedule.

Cal Poly and SUU have lost to a mediocre Texas St. (which also beat SFA), but JU hasn't played anyone close to Texas St., except for APP st. Cal Poly beat ODU @ ODU by 13 or so and they beat Montana, and McNeese 40-14 on the road. SUU beat Cal Poly and if they are 7-4 that means they went on the road and beat E. Wash. JU cannot say they beat anyone of that caliber.

[Dane96]

Losing two times in the first round is a funny definition of having represented anything well. JU did beat ODU, who could probably easily beat B-CU, FAMU, or Hampton.

Exactamundo.

I find it funny that the MEAC is talking about At-large bids when they haven't done much of anything in the playoffs since the famed FAMU runs.

[FargoBison]

GPIs are based on the competition win- loss, so playing in the PFL ANY team could be low, but be deserving. Put App ST in PFL this year with the team they have finishing 10-1 with a loss to OOC Florida,are you gonna hold it against them for being in THAT league or reward them for their season?

Damn right I am going to hold it against them. You gotta beat somebody at some point, end of story. People can make excuses but in the end you have to step up and win a game that makes people say you belong. They had a chance with App State and unfortunately that is the only chance they and their conference gave them.

[heath]

I was at the ASU game...JU played inspired for about a half, ASU only had 17-7 halftime lead. But even then ASU seemed in control. The 2nd half was a complete blowout, ASU scored on 4 of 5 possessions and were on the 5 yard line when time expired (they took a knee, could have easily ran up the score and made it 52-14). Total yardage was 620 to 257. I will say that JU has clearly improved since that game and could probably keep it within 3 touchdowns or so if they played today, still see JU as a 5th-6th place SOCON team or a 7th-8th place CAA team.

We could just take the top 6 from the SoCon and CAA and sprinkle in a few lesser teams and hold a playoff.

[Dane96]

Cal Poly and SUU have lost to a mediocre Texas St. (which also beat SFA), but JU hasn't played anyone close to Texas St., except for APP st. Cal Poly beat ODU @ ODU by 13 or so and they beat Montana, and McNeese 40-14 on the road. SUU beat Cal Poly and if they are 7-4 that means they went on the road and beat E. Wash. JU cannot say they beat anyone of that caliber.

What kind of transitive horse**** is this?

The same Cal-Poly team struggled with a horrific St. Francis squad that Jacksonville would blow out of the water. So...what does that mean (nothing is the answer).

[TBIRDSFN10]

Actually, that isnt the reason the PFL doesn't have the AQ. Learn, listen...and then speak. And I am far from a PFL fan...but that team is deserving IMHO.

What is the reason? that was an actual question.

[heath]

Actually, that isnt the reason the PFL doesn't have the AQ. Learn, listen...and then speak. And I am far from a PFL fan...but that team is deserving IMHO.

AGREE 100%

[FargoBison]

Jacksonville could be able to beat anyone. I'll say that, but they only had a slim chance at building a playoff worthy resume.

[TBIRDSFN10]

What kind of transitive horse**** is this?

The same Cal-Poly team struggled with a horrific St. Francis squad that Jacksonville would blow out of the water. So...what does that mean (nothing is the answer).

What quality win do they have can you find one because I cannot. JU has struggled with some pretty bad teams, but they won and that is why you want to put them in. Struggling for a win is one thing but have no quality wins is another.

[clawman]

Not so fast with Montana State, they have a very tough game against hot Weber team and end the regular season AT Montana.
Go Eagles!!

[UNHWildCats]

GPIs are based on the competition win- loss, so playing in the PFL ANY team could be low, but be deserving. Put App ST in PFL this year with the team they have finishing 10-1 with a loss to OOC Florida,are you gonna hold it against them for being in THAT league or reward them for their season?

If Appalachian State was a Pioneer League member and played a Pioneer schedule with North Carolina Central and a L at Florida OOC they most certainly would not make the playoffs nor should they.

The Pioneer is a bad league. Yes there are a couple good teams (Jacksonville and Dayton this season) but they don't even play each other. Neither will have anywhere near an extremely good win (sorry RMU is an OK win, but the NEC isnt a huge leap over the Pioneer, but they certainly are moving in the right direction as a whole) It would take an extreme circumstance for Dayton or Jacksonville to make the field... and its likely the selection committee would choose a 7-4 Montana with only 6 division I wins over either... Hell I can envision a 6-5 team with the right mix of wins and losses make it before them.

[ODUsmitty]

So who has seen JU and can comment to their play-level?

I think I just did about an hour ago.

See pg 4 of this thread.

[Cincy App]

Jacksonville beat ODU by 10 earlier this year AND ODU just smacked Hampton this past week, So? ..............

The PFL is still dead last in the GPI amongst FCS conferences (even behind the MEAC). Jacksonville does not even play the other decent team in the PFL. If their best win is over a start-up program (ODU), they should be staying home.

[TBIRDSFN10]

If Appalachian State was a Pioneer League member and played a Pioneer schedule with North Carolina Central and a L at Florida OOC they most certainly would not make the playoffs nor should they.

The Pioneer is a bad league. Yes there are a couple good teams (Jacksonville and Dayton this season) but they don't even play each other. Neither will have anywhere near an extremely good win (sorry RMU is an OK win, but the NEC isnt a huge leap over the Pioneer, but they certainly are moving in the right direction as a whole) It would take an extreme circumstance for Dayton or Jacksonville to make the field... and its likely the selection committee would choose a 7-4 Montana with only 6 division I wins over either... Hell I can envision a 6-5 team with the right mix of wins and losses make it before them.

Thank you for speaking the truth, I know a SUU fan does not have much respect on the board, but maybe they will listen to someone with a team that has some history.

[heath]

Jacksonville could be able to beat anyone. I'll say that, but they only had a slim chance at building a playoff worthy resume.

you can only PLAY who is on your schedule,a playoff worthy resume is not in the hands of the players on the field,they are just supposed to win as many games on their schedule as possible.xsmileyclapx THEY have so far,so if 10-1,let them play against the BIG boys unless you're scaredxlolx

[NovaWildcat]

If James Madison goes 6-5 they will have beaten Virginia Tech, Liberty and Richmond or William & Mary.

Does 10-1 JU get in over them?

[TBIRDSFN10]

Albany, your schedule in 2008 was a schedule to try to make the playoffs in a bad conference without an AQ.

Sat, Aug 30 at Massachusetts L 16-28 --
Sat, Sep 13 at Hofstra W 22-16 --
Sat, Sep 20 at New Hampshire L 24-32 --
Sat, Sep 27 at Delaware L 7-38 --
Sat, Oct 4 at Duquesne W 33-23 --
Sat, Oct 11 Central Connecticut State W 24-22 --
Sat, Oct 18 at Sacred Heart W 26-21 --
Sat, Oct 25 St. Francis (PA) W 27-3 --
Sat, Nov 1 Monmouth W 35-17 --
Sat, Nov 8 at Robert Morris W 41-7 --
Sat, Nov 15 Wagner W 30-11 --
Sat, Dec 6 Jacksonville W 28-0

You lost those games but at least people knew you could hang in their with good teams. Do not know if you made it, I would guess no, but if you had 1 or 2 more wins you would have been in.

[heath]

If James Madison goes 6-5 they will have beaten Virginia Tech, Liberty and Richmond or William & Mary.

Does 10-1 JU get in over them?

YES

[BlueHenSinfonian]

What kind of transitive horse**** is this?

The same Cal-Poly team struggled with a horrific St. Francis squad that Jacksonville would blow out of the water. So...what does that mean (nothing is the answer).

I totally read that as transvestite horse****, which was a more colorful mental picture...

[TBIRDSFN10]

YES

I would say yes if JU was 10-1 with a win over APP ST.

[UNHWildCats]

If James Madison goes 6-5 they will have beaten Virginia Tech, Liberty and Richmond or William & Mary.

Does 10-1 JU get in over them?
There you go, that is the right scenario schedule I mentioned. Very VERY good wins and no bad losses. That 6-5 team would get in over a 10-1 Jacksonville.

[UNHWildCats]

Albany, your schedule in 2008 was a schedule to try to make the playoffs in a bad conference without an AQ.

Sat, Aug 30 at Massachusetts L 16-28 --
Sat, Sep 13 at Hofstra W 22-16 --
Sat, Sep 20 at New Hampshire L 24-32 --
Sat, Sep 27 at Delaware L 7-38 --
Sat, Oct 4 at Duquesne W 33-23 --
Sat, Oct 11 Central Connecticut State W 24-22 --
Sat, Oct 18 at Sacred Heart W 26-21 --
Sat, Oct 25 St. Francis (PA) W 27-3 --
Sat, Nov 1 Monmouth W 35-17 --
Sat, Nov 8 at Robert Morris W 41-7 --
Sat, Nov 15 Wagner W 30-11 --
Sat, Dec 6 Jacksonville W 28-0

You lost those games but at least people knew you could hang in their with good teams. Do not know if you made it, I would guess no, but if you had 1 or 2 more wins you would have been in.
Thats the kind of OOC schedule a Pioneer team needs to be seriously considered. Of course they will need to win some of them too, not just schedule them.

[Dane96]

What quality win do they have can you find one because I cannot. JU has struggled with some pretty bad teams, but they won and that is why you want to put them in. Struggling for a win is one thing but have no quality wins is another.

That is not what I am saying. I want you to realize your arguing with yourself in someways and you are trying to compare JU and SUU without much success.

Look...I am the first one who will point at JU's schedule and say, "You should have manned up." Albany, Central Connecticut and Coastal (the only at large from a non-AQ that I can remember) built the formula for going out and playing anyone at anytime...and actually winning games.

That said, in a year of massive parity, this is exactly the year a team like JU should be highly considered at 10-1.

BTW...who has JU struggled with?

[PantherRob82]

you can only PLAY who is on your schedule,a playoff worthy resume is not in the hands of the players on the field,they are just supposed to win as many games on their schedule as possible.xsmileyclapx THEY have so far,so if 10-1,let them play against the BIG boys unless you're scaredxlolx

The players could go to a school with a chance at an autobid. It's not on the players, but it is on the coaches and administration to schedule better OOC if the playoffs are your goal.

[Dane96]

Thank you for speaking the truth, I know a SUU fan does not have much respect on the board, but maybe they will listen to someone with a team that has some history.

Speaking the truth? Travis is well known to be far, far off the reservations at time.

I love the fact that Travis forgets that people were screaming the same thing about the PL and the NEC...and low and behold...those leagues beat (or played really tough) much stronger leagues.

[NovaWildcat]

My biggest problem with Jacksonville's resume is that game against a DII.

I certaintly don't like it or agree with it for any FCS team to play a DII. But Jacksonville cannot afford to play a DII when they play in that conference. If they don't get it they have no one to blame but themselves.

They will have TWO wins against schools with winning records. I would certaintly hope there are 10 schools who did not win AQ that have a better resume than that.

[Dane96]

Albany, your schedule in 2008 was a schedule to try to make the playoffs in a bad conference without an AQ.

Sat, Aug 30 at Massachusetts L 16-28 --
Sat, Sep 13 at Hofstra W 22-16 --
Sat, Sep 20 at New Hampshire L 24-32 --
Sat, Sep 27 at Delaware L 7-38 --
Sat, Oct 4 at Duquesne W 33-23 --
Sat, Oct 11 Central Connecticut State W 24-22 --
Sat, Oct 18 at Sacred Heart W 26-21 --
Sat, Oct 25 St. Francis (PA) W 27-3 --
Sat, Nov 1 Monmouth W 35-17 --
Sat, Nov 8 at Robert Morris W 41-7 --
Sat, Nov 15 Wagner W 30-11 --
Sat, Dec 6 Jacksonville W 28-0

You lost those games but at least people knew you could hang in their with good teams. Do not know if you made it, I would guess no, but if you had 1 or 2 more wins you would have been in.

Just stop it...if you dont even know if we made it...you shouldn't be spouting off on who is playoff worthy or not.

Holy Baby Jesus.

How many FCS games do you actually get to see?

[TBIRDSFN10]

That is not what I am saying. I want you to realize your arguing with yourself in someways and you are trying to compare JU and SUU without much success.

Look...I am the first one who will point at JU's schedule and say, "You should have manned up." Albany, Central Connecticut and Coastal (the only at large from a non-AQ that I can remember) built the formula for going out and playing anyone at anytime...and actually winning games.

That said, in a year of massive parity, this is exactly the year a team like JU should be highly considered at 10-1.

BTW...who has JU struggled with?

They beat San Diego by 7 and Drake by 5, both at home. SUU played San Diego and they were not very good, 32-7 cruise control win. SUU and JU are great to compare because they are both champions of a non-AQ conferences.

[Dane96]

My biggest problem with Jacksonville's resume is that game against a DII.

I certaintly don't like it or agree with it for any FCS team to play a DII. But Jacksonville cannot afford to play a DII when they play in that conference. If they don't get it they have no one to blame but themselves.

They will have TWO wins against schools with winning records. I would certaintly hope there are 10 schools who did not win AQ that have a better resume than that.

See TBIRD...this is how you make an argument. This...is a solid argument against JU. There is fact in here, not supposition.

That said, I think the counter argument is parity...if teams from the power conferences are getting in at 7-4 with 7 DI wins...over 6 quality opponents and a cupcake...I am ok with them getting a nod over JU. The DII thing should never occur for Pioneer teams looking to make the playoffs.

[TBIRDSFN10]

Just stop it...if you dont even know if we made it...you shouldn't be spouting off on who is playoff worthy or not.

Holy Baby Jesus.

How many FCS games do you actually get to see?

This must be a sore stop for you, obviously I am a new fan, only 135 posts and without a vote. But now I know you didn't make it and I am guessing you were probably upset.

[Dane96]

They beat San Diego by 7 and Drake by 5, both at home. SUU played San Diego and they were not very good, 32-7 cruise control win. SUU and JU are great to compare because they are both champions of a non-AQ conferences.

UNH lost to Maine.

Maine lost to a horrible Albany team (as of this year).

UNH should be out?

[TBIRDSFN10]

See TBIRD...this is how you make an argument. This...is a solid argument against JU. There is fact in here, not supposition.

That said, I think the counter argument is parity...if teams from the power conferences are getting in at 7-4 with 7 DI wins...over 6 quality opponents and a cupcake...I am ok with them getting a nod over JU. The DII thing should never occur for Pioneer teams looking to make the playoffs.

That is my arguement just because I am an SUU fan doesn't mean you do not have to read my posts to agrue

[Dane96]

This must be a sore stop for you, obviously I am a new fan, only 135 posts and without a vote. But now I know you didn't make it and I am guessing you were probably upset.

Actually no...it is the fact that you are grasping at straws, and are talking a whole lot of big game:

-I dont know if Albany made the playoffs
-They Ivy's dont make the playoffs because they dont have scholarships
-The PFL doesnt get an AQ because of their schedule

Shall I continue with things that the average fan of FCS on this board knows but you dont, yet you are so sure that X team should get in over Y team. You have come on real strong knocking leagues and teams...and it seems that you dont even have a basic knowledge of the FCS world. That takes a lot of sack...

And no, I wasnt upset that Albany didnt make it.

[JUDolphins]

Ok, let me answer a few of the questions that have been posed on Jacksonville since I'm the one who started this thing...

1. JU's schedule is what it is. When the league expanded, everyone had to rotate a flight off their schedule. Dayton-JU series was off for two years.

The rest of the schedule was built two years ago. All of the games were long-term deals setup in advance.

2. Jacksonville has not struggled with anyone in league play. They have trailed for a total of 3 minutes in league play and that came this past Saturday when Morehead State led 3-0.

3. You can't go by just the scores. JU owned a 28-7 lead at the half on San Diego and played a lot of young guys in the second half since the game wasn't in doubt. Had a big lead on Drake the next week and did the same thing. The goal was to give the young guys experience in case they were needed.

4. The PFL as a league may be awful - but just because we don't award athletic scholarships means we're bad. The Ivy and Patriot Leagues don't offer schollies either. The tops teams in the PFL have proven in the past few years that they can compete on a national level. JU is showing that this season.

The PFL is finally coming around to the whole national scene and its taken several years for this to happen. Now, the PFL has applied for an AQ - that wasn't even a blip on the radar in previous years to even apply for it.

Now back to the at-larges...
- I have a hard time seeing more than five teams from the CAA getting in. JMU has a tough road to hoe because they are 1-4 in the league. Even if they are 6-5, they will have a losing record in the league...you can't take them over a 10-1 JU team.

- IMO - since Cal Poly isn't going to win the Great West, they aren't getting in...that loss to Southern Utah is going to be what holds them out...you've got to win your league if you're going to get an at-large bid from a non-AQ...SUU isn't going to have 7 D1 wins...that I think holds them out in the end.

- The one-bid leagues (Patriot, NEC, Big South) I took whoever was leading or the highest ranked team and put them there. Liberty losing to Stony Brook would probably hurt JU's chances of getting a bid...but on the flip side, if Liberty doesn't win the league, it's going to be tough to get an at-large bid with losses to Robert Morris and a BSC team.

- The MVFC is the hardest to figure out. They could get 1 team in...they could get 3 teams in.

- IMO, there is no way S.C. State gets in over JU. S.C. State has done less this year than JU has. Previous years, they've been a great program, but that doesn't mean squad when it comes to this season.

[TBIRDSFN10]

UNH lost to Maine.

Maine lost to a horrible Albany team (as of this year).

UNH should be out?

How can we make you understand. If JU played the bottom 9 schools in FCS and blow them out. Then beat the #49 team by 10 on the road and lost to the #1 team by 30. Should they be in. Because this is almost what you are saying. Your best win cannot be against the #40th best team and say hey we deserve to play against the teams that have been playing and beating some top teams throught the year.

[theasushow]

xpopcornx

[TBIRDSFN10]

Actually no...it is the fact that you are grasping at straws, and are talking a whole lot of big game:

-I dont know if Albany made the playoffs
-They Ivy's dont make the playoffs
-The PFL's dont get an AQ because of their schedule

Shall I continue with things that the average fan of FCS on this board knows but you dont, yet you are so sure that X team should get in over Y team. You have come on real strong knocking leagues and teams...and it seems that you dont even have a basic knowledge of the FCS world. That takes a lot of sack...

And no, I wasnt upset that Albany didnt make it.

5,973 posts to 140, I am guessing you have been on the board for an extended period of time and know more about the history of FCS. You are correct for the first time in this discussion. However, you are wrong about this. Just face it, it is not fair for a team that does not have a win against a top 40 team to be in the playoffs. Period.

[WestCoastAggie]

If James Madison goes 6-5 they will have beaten Virginia Tech, Liberty and Richmond or William & Mary.

Does 10-1 JU get in over them?

JMU would have only 5 FCS wins and would be under .500 in CAA play under this scenario.

The ONLY thing that would be keeping JMU in the discussion would be the VA. Tech victory but it doesn't count towards the win total that the Committee considers.

BTW: IF Jacksonville can make it to the top 20 of the Modified version of the GPI and win the PFL, they would be in but are they even in 1st place?

[UNHWildCats]

Ok, let me answer a few of the questions that have been posed on Jacksonville since I'm the one who started this thing...

1. JU's schedule is what it is. When the league expanded, everyone had to rotate a flight off their schedule. Dayton-JU series was off for two years.

The rest of the schedule was built two years ago. All of the games were long-term deals setup in advance.

2. Jacksonville has not struggled with anyone in league play. They have trailed for a total of 3 minutes in league play and that came this past Saturday when Morehead State led 3-0.

3. You can't go by just the scores. JU owned a 28-7 lead at the half on San Diego and played a lot of young guys in the second half since the game wasn't in doubt. Had a big lead on Drake the next week and did the same thing. The goal was to give the young guys experience in case they were needed.

4. The PFL as a league may be awful - but just because we don't award athletic scholarships means we're bad. The Ivy and Patriot Leagues don't offer schollies either. The tops teams in the PFL have proven in the past few years that they can compete on a national level. JU is showing that this season.

The PFL is finally coming around to the whole national scene and its taken several years for this to happen. Now, the PFL has applied for an AQ - that wasn't even a blip on the radar in previous years to even apply for it.

Now back to the at-larges...
- I have a hard time seeing more than five teams from the CAA getting in. JMU has a tough road to hoe because they are 1-4 in the league. Even if they are 6-5, they will have a losing record in the league...you can't take them over a 10-1 JU team.

- IMO - since Cal Poly isn't going to win the Great West, they aren't getting in...that loss to Southern Utah is going to be what holds them out...you've got to win your league if you're going to get an at-large bid from a non-AQ...SUU isn't going to have 7 D1 wins...that I think holds them out in the end.

- The one-bid leagues (Patriot, NEC, Big South) I took whoever was leading or the highest ranked team and put them there. Liberty losing to Stony Brook would probably hurt JU's chances of getting a bid...but on the flip side, if Liberty doesn't win the league, it's going to be tough to get an at-large bid with losses to Robert Morris and a BSC team.

- The MVFC is the hardest to figure out. They could get 1 team in...they could get 3 teams in.

- IMO, there is no way S.C. State gets in over JU. S.C. State has done less this year than JU has. Previous years, they've been a great program, but that doesn't mean squad when it comes to this season.


xlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolx

[TBIRDSFN10]

JMU would have only 3 FCS wins and would be under .500 in CAA play under this scenario.

AND JU would have 1 win against a team with a pulse.

[UNHWildCats]

JMU would have only 3 FCS wins and would be under .500 in CAA play under this scenario.

Sat, Sep 4 Morehead State (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/teams/mmw) W 48-7 (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/recap?gid=201009040196) --
Sat, Sep 11 at (13) Virginia Tech (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/teams/vvd) W 21-16 (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/recap?gid=201009110016) --
Sat, Sep 25 Liberty (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/teams/lle) W 10-3 (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/recap?gid=201009250196) --
Sat, Oct 2 Delaware (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/teams/ddc) L 10-13 (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/recap?gid=201010020196) --
Sat, Oct 9 at Towson (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/teams/ttq) W 17-13 (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/boxscore?gid=201010090221) --
Sat, Oct 16 New Hampshire (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/teams/nng) L 14-28 (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/recap?gid=201010160196) --
Sat, Oct 23 at Villanova (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/teams/vvh) L 7-14 (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/recap?gid=201010230199) --
Sat, Oct 30 Massachusetts (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/teams/mme) L 14-21 (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/recap?gid=201010300196) --
Sat, Nov 6 at Richmond (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/teams/rrc) 3:30 pm --
Sat, Nov 13 William & Mary (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/teams/wwn) 1:30 pm --
Sat, Nov 20 at Maine (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/teams/mma) 12:00 pm --

Add wins vs Maine and either Richmond or William & Mary... I count 5 FCS wins and an FBS win. That schedule and results could get in over Jacksonville.

[Dane96]

How can we make you understand. If JU played the bottom 9 schools in FCS and blow them out. Then beat the #49 team by 10 on the road and lost to the #1 team by 30. Should they be in. Because this is almost what you are saying. Your best win cannot be against the #40th best team and say hey we deserve to play against the teams that have been playing and beating some top teams throught the year.

How can "we" make you understand? Just exactly who is "we"?

[JUDolphins]

JU has done everything it can against its schedule. That's all you can do. They scheduled up - playing ODU and ASU on the road. They needed a home game and played a non-D1 - much like your beloved Tbirds.

IMO, Jacksonville at 10-1 is very deserving of an at-large bid. Anyone that wins 10 games in a season has to be doing something right, regardless of their schedule.

Should JU make it, nobody in the first round is going to be thrilled with that matchup against this offense. It's got some very talented players that can play at any level.

[WestCoastAggie]

5,973 posts to 140, I am guessing you have been on the board for an extended period of time and know more about the history of FCS. You are correct for the first time in this discussion. However, you are wrong about this. Just face it, it is not fair for a team that does not have a win against a top 40 team to be in the playoffs. Period.

It would also not "be fair" for a team who is under .500 in conference play to be selected for the playoffs as well. Either way, it is what it is.

[ODUsmitty]

JU is in a terrible position - a solid team tied to a subpar league.

I can only comment on what I have observed at ODU games. To draw conclusions past the game in discussion is iffy, but in JU's case, might be necessary.

JU is better than AQ contenders Monmouth and Hampton. ODU beat both soundly on the road, and lost to JU at home.

JU has a better offense than any team ODU has played to date, to include WM and Cal-Poly.

Spped kills, and JU has more than any team ODu has played.

ODU will close 8-3, and JU beat them at home. That's not a top 25 win, but a good one for any team.

A 10-1 JU Dolphins team would deserve significant consideration for a playoff berth.

[Dane96]

5,973 posts to 140, I am guessing you have been on the board for an extended period of time and know more about the history of FCS. You are correct for the first time in this discussion. However, you are wrong about this. Just face it, it is not fair for a team that does not have a win against a top 40 team to be in the playoffs. Period.

This (wish I had an up arrow) is the definition of circular reasoning.

I feel like I am in the midst of a horror show of an excel spreadsheet formula.

[NovaWildcat]

If JU makes it, the committee is sending a message - particularly to the non-AQ/less competitive AQ schools that you don't have to schedule non-conference games to make the playoffs.

They can't control their conference opponents, so that's not the issue. They had 3 non conference games to schedule. ODU is OK but by no means is that a "signature win." ASU is a great game to schedule --but if you can't win it, it doesn't matter. Then you have the DII.

They may be as good as some of the at larges this year. But they chose not to prove that they were on the field. Literally one game could have changed that.

[JUDolphins]

I will say this - JMU is going to be the toughest decision the committee has to make if they are at 6-5. A losing record, regardless of what league you're in, is going to be tough to overcome to get in the playoffs.

[Dane96]

Sat, Sep 4 Morehead State (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/teams/mmw) W 48-7 (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/recap?gid=201009040196) --
Sat, Sep 11 at (13) Virginia Tech (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/teams/vvd) W 21-16 (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/recap?gid=201009110016) --
Sat, Sep 25 Liberty (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/teams/lle) W 10-3 (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/recap?gid=201009250196) --
Sat, Oct 2 Delaware (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/teams/ddc) L 10-13 (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/recap?gid=201010020196) --
Sat, Oct 9 at Towson (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/teams/ttq) W 17-13 (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/boxscore?gid=201010090221) --
Sat, Oct 16 New Hampshire (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/teams/nng) L 14-28 (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/recap?gid=201010160196) --
Sat, Oct 23 at Villanova (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/teams/vvh) L 7-14 (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/recap?gid=201010230199) --
Sat, Oct 30 Massachusetts (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/teams/mme) L 14-21 (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/recap?gid=201010300196) --
Sat, Nov 6 at Richmond (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/teams/rrc) 3:30 pm --
Sat, Nov 13 William & Mary (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/teams/wwn) 1:30 pm --
Sat, Nov 20 at Maine (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaaf/teams/mma) 12:00 pm --

Add wins vs Maine and either Richmond or William & Mary... I count 5 FCS wins and an FBS win. That schedule and results could get in over Jacksonville.

Wins over Maine are considered good?

Ya Hooooo....please give me some of that acid you have taken. ;)

[FargoBison]

JMU would have only 5 FCS wins and would be under .500 in CAA play under this scenario.

The ONLY thing that would be keeping JMU in the discussion would be the VA. Tech victory but it doesn't count towards the win total that the Committee considers.

BTW: IF Jacksonville can make it to the top 20 of the Modified version of the GPI and win the PFL, they would be in but are they even in 1st place?

The Va Tech win counts towards the win total, in fact that committee would eat the kind of win up if JMU finishes 7-4.

[Dane96]

JU has done everything it can against its schedule. That's all you can do. They scheduled up - playing ODU and ASU on the road. They needed a home game and played a non-D1 - much like your beloved Tbirds.

IMO, Jacksonville at 10-1 is very deserving of an at-large bid. Anyone that wins 10 games in a season has to be doing something right, regardless of their schedule.

Should JU make it, nobody in the first round is going to be thrilled with that matchup against this offense. It's got some very talented players that can play at any level.

Here is where I differ. Very deserving I am not going to agree with. In a normal year with clear order...I would say sorry, the schedule may hurt you. However this year the cards are falling just right because not many teams are proving themselves to be clear Top 15.

[JUDolphins]

To be honest, the only reason JU is in this discussion is because the field is 20 teams and the at-large pool isn't very deep. I'll be the first to admit that.

Last year, we thought that was going to be the year that JU was going to make a run and get in the conversation...that team wasn't ready to handle the pressure of being a defending champion.

This group has some very special young men that are in the midst of a phenomenal season.

I'll still be surprised if JU gets in the field and I'll still be disappointed if they don't get in.

[UNHWildCats]

JU has done everything it can against its schedule. That's all you can do. They scheduled up - playing ODU and ASU on the road. They needed a home game and played a non-D1 - much like your beloved Tbirds.

IMO, Jacksonville at 10-1 is very deserving of an at-large bid. Anyone that wins 10 games in a season has to be doing something right, regardless of their schedule.

Should JU make it, nobody in the first round is going to be thrilled with that matchup against this offense. It's got some very talented players that can play at any level.
NO!

For arguments sake... lets say the committee gives serious thought to a Pioneer team... guess what... Dayton get in before you... Jacksonville has ZERO chance to get in the playoffs.... ZERO!

[Dane96]

The Va Tech win counts towards the win total, in fact that committee would eat the kind of win up if JMU finishes 7-4.

Agreed. If they finish 7-4...they are in or really close to it on the bubble. 6-5...and that is just gross to let a team in...sorry, under .500 in league play no matter how strong the league is should not get you rewarded.

[Dane96]

NO!

For arguments sake... lets say the committee gives serious thought to a Pioneer team... guess what... Dayton get in before you... Jacksonville has ZERO chance to get in the playoffs.... ZERO!

Dayton-- WTF are you talking about? Why would DAYTON get in before Jacksonville? Because of the win over RMU early season...or the loss to Duquense a couple of weeks later.

Or the beat down of Central.

I think Jacksonville's demolishing of opponents, a win over ODU...and having the guts to play at App State and do well for a good amount of time in that game get's them in over Dayton.

That said, it isn't clear cut they would get in over Dayton either....but clearly the same can be said of Dayton over JU. Not "Dayton get in before you" as clear as you make it.

[UNHWildCats]

Wins over Maine are considered good?

Ya Hooooo....please give me some of that acid you have taken. ;)
a win over Maine is better than anything Jacksonville will have accomplished, anyway I didnt say it was a good win, just pointing out they would have more than 3 FCS wins.

[JUDolphins]

How does Dayton get in over JU? Show me a ranking that has Dayton rated above JU?

Dayton has a good team...but there best win is over RMU and their loss is to a .500 Duquesne.

[WestCoastAggie]

Dayton-- WTF are you talking about? Why would DAYTON get in before Jacksonville?

Who is in first place of the PFL, Dayton of Jacksonville?

[UNHWildCats]

To be honest, the only reason JU is in this discussion is because the field is 20 teams and the at-large pool isn't very deep. I'll be the first to admit that.

Last year, we thought that was going to be the year that JU was going to make a run and get in the conversation...that team wasn't ready to handle the pressure of being a defending champion.

This group has some very special young men that are in the midst of a phenomenal season.

I'll still be surprised if JU gets in the field and I'll still be disappointed if they don't get in.
The only place Jacksonville is in the discussion is with Pioneer fans.

[malibudude]

This is turning out to be another USD V The world thread(s) from 2006. Just missing the Harbaugh posts.

[JUDolphins]

Tied at 6-0. They don't play each other because of the schedule when the league expanded.

BTW, Jacksonville is on a lot of people's mind when it comes to the playoffs - Sports Network had JU in the postseason in their bracket last week.

[TBIRDSFN10]

This (wish I had an up arrow) is the definition of circular reasoning.

I feel like I am in the midst of a horror show of an excel spreadsheet formula.

Albany could reasonably go 10-1 with JU schedule. If they had a good game against ODU they go 10-1. It is not JU's fault they didn't play anyone but there are many teams that can beat a start-up program by 10 in the opening game of the season and run off 9 of 10 after that with the schedule below.

Sat, Sep 4 at Old Dominion W 35-25 --
Sat, Sep 11 at Appalachian State L 14-45 --
Sat, Sep 18 Webber International W 41-0 --
Sat, Sep 25 at Davidson W 42-15 --
Sat, Oct 2 San Diego W 35-28 --
Sat, Oct 9 Drake W 39-34 --
Sat, Oct 16 at Valparaiso W 86-7 --
Sat, Oct 23 Marist W 56-14 --
Sat, Oct 30 at Morehead State W 61-17 --
Sat, Nov 6 at Butler 12:00 pm --
Sat, Nov 13 Campbell 12:00 pm

Name 1 team in the Big SKY, CAA, MVC, Great West, Southland besides Townson and Idaho St. that could not reasonably go 10-1. Northern Colorado is 2-7 and it is not far fetched to see them at 10-1 if they had that schedule. So again, how does JU deserve it.

[Dane96]

a win over Maine is better than anything Jacksonville will have accomplished, anyway I didnt say it was a good win, just pointing out they would have more than 3 FCS wins.

Please point to empirical proof that the Maine win is better than JU's win over ODU? If we want to compare and alll....

[Dane96]

Who is in first place of the PFL, Dayton of Jacksonville?

Tied.

[TBIRDSFN10]

a win over Maine is better than anything Jacksonville will have accomplished, anyway I didnt say it was a good win, just pointing out they would have more than 3 FCS wins.

Lol, but true maine is better than every team JU beat.

[FargoBison]

Agreed. If a team can't at least muster 7 DI wins, I really don't think they belong. I don't think the committee would go for it either.

[ODUsmitty]

How is Maine better than ODU. Please advise.

The Maine performance v. WM is similar to ODU.

ODU beat Monmouth soundly at MU, and Maine beat them by a touchdown.

Common opponents, ODU does better, and the sites played for comparison were identical. ODU>Maine.

[Dane96]

Lol, but true maine is better than every team JU beat.

Really, are you two from the same gene pool? How is a win over Maine better, for example, than a win over ODU (forgetting the "startup" moniker). I have seen Maine multiple times...and they are a bad undisciplined football team this year. I would think Mainejeff and others would agree.

[TBIRDSFN10]

How is Maine better than ODU. Please advise.

MAine beat a ranked team which JU and ODU has failed to do. Could be a good game but to think Maine does not have a shot would be unfair.

[Dane96]

MAine beat a ranked team which JU and ODU has failed to do. Could be a good game but to think Maine does not have a shot would be unfair.

Maine also lost to a terrible Albany team who couldnt put up more than 7 against "startup" Bryant. The same Albany team that got lapped by RMU, Duquense, SFA, etc......

Next wonderful argument?

[TBIRDSFN10]

Really, are you two from the same gene pool? How is a win over Maine better, for example, than a win over ODU (forgetting the "startup" moniker). I have seen Maine multiple times...and they are a bad undisciplined football team this year. I would think Mainejeff and others would agree.

No comment on Northern Colorado going 10-1. Do you agree?

[ODUsmitty]

The Maine performance v. WM is similar to ODU.

ODU beat Monmouth soundly at MU, and Maine beat them by a touchdown.

Common opponents, ODU does better, and the sites played for comparison were identical. ODU>Maine.

[Dane96]

No comment on Northern Colorado going 10-1. Do you agree?

No comment because the analogy wasn't worth the comment. But if it makes you happy...NO, I dont think No. Colorado would go 10-1. And yes, I have seen No. Colorado play twice this season...

[TBIRDSFN10]

No comment because the analogy wasn't worth the comment. But if it makes you happy...NO, I dont think No. Colorado would go 10-1. And yes, I have seen No. Colorado play twice this season...

You know its ture, Albany can be in this same discussion with that schedule which is sad.

[Dane96]

What?!?!?!?

[WestCoastAggie]

So if Dayton & Jacksonville win out who would win the conference? It is terrible that either team plays one another this year. that would boost both teams SOS.

[TBIRDSFN10]

What?!?!?!?

Am I not speaking english Alabany can not go undefeated in the PFL with JU PFL schedule? Maybe some closer games but it is very possible they could do it. Now just surprise ODU on opening night and wow , Albany is 10-1. Anybody in the Great West can go 10-1 without question and Cal Poly did beat ODU. If you do not agree you are just stubborn.

[Cincy App]

BTW, Jacksonville is on a lot of people's mind when it comes to the playoffs - Sports Network had JU in the postseason in their bracket last week.

I wouldn't get too excited about making the Sports Network bracket. Their bracket also had 2 Big Sky conference teams playing their first game against each other which is clearly prohibited. The TSN bracket has consistently been in left field so far this year.

[iceman4221]

- IMO, there is no way S.C. State gets in over JU. S.C. State has done less this year than JU has. Previous years, they've been a great program, but that doesn't mean squad when it comes to this season.[/QUOTE]

xlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolx

[iceman4221]

Exactamundo.

I find it funny that the MEAC is talking about At-large bids when they haven't done much of anything in the playoffs since the famed FAMU runs.

That will change this year with Bethune Cookman and SCSU winning 1st round playoff games... xwhistlexxwhistlexxwhistlex

[WrenFGun]

That will change this year with Bethune Cookman and SCSU winning 1st round playoff games... xwhistlexxwhistlexxwhistlex

SC State needs serious help this year to make the playoffs. In fact, if they make it'll really be a slap in the face to all the small conference teams who actually try to follow the NCAA's advice and schedule up ..

[WrenFGun]

a win over Maine is better than anything Jacksonville will have accomplished, anyway I didnt say it was a good win, just pointing out they would have more than 3 FCS wins.

This is absurd. Maine lost to Albany at home, in their home opener, by 3 points. They scored zero points against, frankly, a bad, bad NEC Team. Maine would get destroyed by Appalachian State as well, IMO. Just because UNH played terrible against Maine and lost doesn't make them a quality team. They barely beat Monmouth, too. Yeah, they had W&M on the ropes but that's a different team than now.

I actually think Dayton has a better chance to get in, tbh. Their wins are less impressive but they may have wins over JU and RMU to end the season. That's a better resume than a number of the other "small conference" FCS types. Not sure what will happen if JU wins out, but I'd much rather see them than SC State, Hampton or SEMO with a potential loss to Jacksonville State.

[BucBisonAtLarge]

Jacksonville and Dayton not playing this year seems akin to Michigan State and Ohio State not playing this year-- the leagues do not play a full round-robin due to size. I wont presume to know the scheduling challenges of a private non-scholarship FCS school in Florida, but it would include ineligibility to, for example, count as a Div. I win for an FBS school (so they cant be some presumed cupcake for MAC, Sun-Belt or CUSA teams to pad their bowl eligibility.}
It remains for the middle tier CAA/SOCON/MVFC/BSC teams to perform. JU cant do better than 10-1 but a cold hard look at any imagined at-large pool says they cant assume anything, a 20-team field notwithstanding.

[Dane96]

Am I not speaking english Alabany can not go undefeated in the PFL with JU PFL schedule? Maybe some closer games but it is very possible they could do it. Now just surprise ODU on opening night and wow , Albany is 10-1. Anybody in the Great West can go 10-1 without question and Cal Poly did beat ODU. If you do not agree you are just stubborn.

You spoke English clear enough. I just was amazed at the content of the sentence.

[tribefan40]

The real question in all of this will be if any of the lower ranked at-large contenders can break through this year. Outside of a very talented top 4-6 teams, I don't see a lot of teams making much noise in the playoffs this year. xtwocentsx

[Dane96]

Agreed. I really think this is a poor year...or just a year filled with parity. Only a few teams are clearly the "class" of FCS.

[danefan]

OK since so many people are willing to complete write off JU - why aren't you writing off SCST?

Jacksonville (NCAA GPI Rank - 29; Conference GPI - 15th)
Sep 4 - W at Old Dominion, 35-25
Sep 11 - L at Appalachian St, 14-4
5Sep 18 - W vs. Webber, 41-0
Sep 25 - W at Davidson, 42-15
Oct 2 - W vs. San Diego, 35-28
Oct 9 - W vs. Drake, 39-34
Oct 16 - W at Valparaiso, 86-7
Oct 23 - W vs. Marist, 56-14
Oct 30 - W at Morehead State, 61-17
Nov 6 - at Butler, 12:00 PM
Nov 13 - vs. Campbell, 12:00 PM

South Carolina State (NCAA GPI - 33; Conference GPI - 14th)
Sep 4 - L at Georgia Tech, 10-41
Sep 11 - W vs. Miss Valley St, 44-
0Sep 18 - W at Benedict, 61-20
Sep 25 - Open
Oct 2 - W at Florida A&M, 19-
0Oct 9 - W vs. Norfolk State, 34-13
Oct 16 - L vs. Bethune-Cookman, 0-14
Oct 23 - W vs. Hampton, 10-7
Oct 30 - W at Delaware State, 38-21
Nov 6 - vs. Howard, 1:30 PM
Nov 11 - at Morgan State, 7:30 PM
Nov 20 - at NC A&T, 1:30 PM

The resumes are pretty much exactly the same, yet for some its a foregone conclusion that SCST should be in the playoffs. Why?

[JSU02]

Here is TSN's latest take
http://www.sportsnetwork.com/fcs/FCS_Bracket.pdf

[Nebuta]

Here is TSN's latest take
http://www.sportsnetwork.com/fcs/FCS_Bracket.pdf

Obviously, this guy doesnt look at the GPI. Looks more like his wish list. xlolx

[Saint3333]

Some App State fans have said that. I didn't see the game so I can't say. The box score doesn't really show it, but we all know that stats don't tell the whole story.

The score was close through the third quarter, but the game never really felt close. ASU out gained JU by almost 400 yards on the day. From watching the other ASU games I can confidently state that Furman, Samford, UTC, and Elon would be more competitive in the playoffs. UTC is the best example, if they lose to Wofford will likely be 6-5 and will have outperformed JU this season.

I agree SCST isn't a playoff caliber team (resume wise) this year either. This enforces comments made in the offseason that 20 teams were too many for the playoffs. We are struggling to find qualified teams to fill the field.

[Fear the Bird]

OK since so many people are willing to complete write off JU - why aren't you writing off SCST?

The resumes are pretty much exactly the same, yet for some its a foregone conclusion that SCST should be in the playoffs. Why?

Do people really believe this? I would be shocked and disappointed if the MEAC is a 2-bid league

[WestCoastAggie]

OK since so many people are willing to complete write off JU - why aren't you writing off SCST?

Jacksonville (NCAA GPI Rank - 29; Conference GPI - 15th)
Sep 4 - W at Old Dominion, 35-25
Sep 11 - L at Appalachian St, 14-4
5Sep 18 - W vs. Webber, 41-0
Sep 25 - W at Davidson, 42-15
Oct 2 - W vs. San Diego, 35-28
Oct 9 - W vs. Drake, 39-34
Oct 16 - W at Valparaiso, 86-7
Oct 23 - W vs. Marist, 56-14
Oct 30 - W at Morehead State, 61-17
Nov 6 - at Butler, 12:00 PM
Nov 13 - vs. Campbell, 12:00 PM

South Carolina State (NCAA GPI - 33; Conference GPI - 14th)
Sep 4 - L at Georgia Tech, 10-41
Sep 11 - W vs. Miss Valley St, 44-
0Sep 18 - W at Benedict, 61-20
Sep 25 - Open
Oct 2 - W at Florida A&M, 19-
0Oct 9 - W vs. Norfolk State, 34-13
Oct 16 - L vs. Bethune-Cookman, 0-14
Oct 23 - W vs. Hampton, 10-7
Oct 30 - W at Delaware State, 38-21
Nov 6 - vs. Howard, 1:30 PM
Nov 11 - at Morgan State, 7:30 PM
Nov 20 - at NC A&T, 1:30 PM

The resumes are pretty much exactly the same, yet for some its a foregone conclusion that SCST should be in the playoffs. Why?

Sympathy votes and they are still highly regarded after that App. State game last year.

[WileECoyote06]

Here is TSN's latest take
http://www.sportsnetwork.com/fcs/FCS_Bracket.pdf

I'm not sure that some of the teams he listed as home teams 'can/will' outbid their opponents.

[theasushow]

Here is TSN's latest take
http://www.sportsnetwork.com/fcs/FCS_Bracket.pdf

ha, they said JMU is "out for good". Also, I didn't realize that quarterfinal games were being played on friday night.

[PantherRob82]

4. The PFL as a league may be awful - but just because we don't award athletic scholarships means we're bad. The Ivy and Patriot Leagues don't offer schollies either. The tops teams in the PFL have proven in the past few years that they can compete on a national level. JU is showing that this season.

The PFL is finally coming around to the whole national scene and its taken several years for this to happen. Now, the PFL has applied for an AQ - that wasn't even a blip on the radar in previous years to even apply for it.

If by national level, you mean with the worst teams in FCS, then yes. Nothing has changed with the PFL's level of competitiveness, all that has changed is that they decided to apply for an autobid.

[PantherRob82]

JMU would have only 5 FCS wins and would be under .500 in CAA play under this scenario.

The ONLY thing that would be keeping JMU in the discussion would be the VA. Tech victory but it doesn't count towards the win total that the Committee considers.



not sure if anyone else has corrected this, but the committee absolutely counts FBS wins. They don't count SUB D-I wins.

[WestCoastAggie]

not sure if anyone else has corrected this, but the committee absolutely counts FBS wins. They don't count SUB D-I wins.

Oh okay. I must have read that wrong. But either way, with a 6-5 record this season, they would have earned a sub .500 record in the CAA. I don't see how that resume is worthy of an At-Large bid.

[Saint3333]

Oh okay. I must have read that wrong. But either way, with a 6-5 record this season, they would have earned a sub .500 record in the CAA. I don't see how that resume is worthy of an At-Large bid.

I assume you think JU is worthy? I'm not saying a 6-5 team is playoff worthy, but how can anyone compare JMU's resume (if they go 6-5) with JU's resume and say JU is more deserving. The same can be said for a 6-5 UTC team as well.

[aceinthehole]

Sorry, but IMO any Big Sky, CAA, MVFC or SoCon team that finishes this season with a 7-4 record (even with just 6 D-I wins) will get an at-large before Jacksonville, Dayton, ODU, or a second team from the PL/NEC/MEAC/Big South. But 5 losses in ANY conference just won't get it done.

However, if there aren’t enough 7-4 teams from the ‘major conferences,’ then the final at-large picks may get very interesting.

(Remember, the guidance says less than 7 D-I wins puts teams "at risk" - it does not eliminate them from selcetion)

[Fear the Bird]

Oh okay. I must have read that wrong. But either way, with a 6-5 record this season, they would have earned a sub .500 record in the CAA. I don't see how that resume is worthy of an At-Large bid.

Although I haven't made my mind up yet of whether I would condone a 6-5 team in the field (depends on how other candidates finish), the "resume" you speak of:

Probable ACC Champion
#3 Team in Country
#4 Team in Country
#5 Team in Country
#8 Team in Country
#15 Team in Country (roughly depending on how UMass finishes)

I would say for any team in the country outside of maybe App, Nova, UD, W&M, 7-4 is the best you can hope for in that schedule. That being said, you would like to see JMU win 2 of those 5 games and W&M is their last chance

[WestCoastAggie]

I assume you think JU is worthy? I'm not saying a 6-5 team is playoff worthy, but how can anyone compare JMU's resume (if they go 6-5) with JU's resume and say JU is more deserving. The same can be said for a 6-5 UTC team as well.

Jacksonville worthy? Hmm...not necessiarly. They are showing on the field that they should be considered but it's not even 100% certain that they would even win the PFL, which is required for them to get an At-Large berth and their OOC schedule is just terrible, just like the MEAC, etc...

But JMU's & UTC's resume with a 6-5 record should not be considered over an 7-4 MVFC or Big Sky team or even an 7-4 SLC team.

With a 6-5 record, JMU would be 3-5 in the CAA and UTC would be 4-4 in the So. Con.

[MacThor]

All this bracketology speculation is fun, but shouldn't be taken too seriously. When was the last time a non-autobid league team made a run at the title? When was the last time a team 7-4 or worse made a run? I can't recall either in the past decade. The FCS playoffs don't lend themselves to cinderella teams.

I will say that if spot #20 came down to Jacksonville (10-1) vs. SCSt (9-2), I'd take Jacksonville in a heartbeat.

[Saint3333]

Jacksonville worthy? Hmm...not necessiarly. They are showing on the field that they should be considered but it's not even 100% certain that they would even win the PFL, which is required for them to get an At-Large berth and their OOC schedule is just terrible, just like the MEAC, etc...

But JMU's & UTC's resume with a 6-5 record should not be considered over an 7-4 MVFC or Big Sky team or even an 7-4 SLC team.

With a 6-5 record, JMU would be 3-5 in the CAA and UTC would be 4-4 in the So. Con.

Agree 100%, a 7-4 team from one of the "power" conferences (SoCon, CAA, BS, MVC, or SL) get in over any 6-5 team from another one of those conferences. I think 7-4 is those conferences is the new "8-3" under a 16 team playoff field.

[Saint3333]

All this bracketology speculation is fun, but shouldn't be taken too seriously. When was the last time a non-autobid league team made a run at the title? When was the last time a team 7-4 or worse made a run? I can't recall either in the past decade. The FCS playoffs don't lend themselves to cinderella teams.

I will say that if spot #20 came down to Jacksonville (10-1) vs. SCSt (9-2), I'd take Jacksonville in a heartbeat.

The NC$$ may not, as they'd like to give SC St. a change to bid on the first round games. 3,500 vs. 16,500 avg. attendance, while we can argue that those figures shouldn't be considered I think we all know those metrics are. How about it they let both JU and SC St. in playing in Orangeburg and the winning get to come to Boone the following week ;-).

[TBone]

With a 6-5 record, JMU would be 3-5 in the CAA and UTC would be 4-4 in the So. Con.
With losses to App. St., Elon, Jacksonville St., and an expected loss this weekend to Auburn, I think a 6-5 UTC team would be 5-3 in the So. Con. because 2 of those loses would have come in non-conference play.

[smallcollegefbfan]

Here's a look at who is in the conversation for the last at-large bids with the following teams assumed in the tournament:

Big Sky: E. Wash., Mont. St.
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: W&M, Villanova, Delaware, New Hampshire
MEAC: Bethune
MVFC: No. Iowa
NEC: Robert Morris
OVC: JSU, SEMO
Patriot: Lehigh
Southland: SFA
SoCon: ASU, Wofford

I think everyone on here pretty much is in agreement with that group. That leaves four spots for at-large bids...here are the candidates:

* - means they MUST WIN OUT to be eligible for at-large bid

Big Sky
*Montana (6-3) – vs. UND, vs. Montana State
Weber State (5-3) – at Montana State, at No. Arizona, at Texas Tech

Colonial
*James Madison (4-4) – at Richmond, vs. W&M, at Maine
UMass (5-3) – vs Maine, vs Delaware, at Rhode Island
*Richmond (4-4) – vs James Madison, vs Rhode Island, at W&M

MEAC
S.C. State (6-2) – vs. Howard, at Morgan State, at N.C. A&T

Missouri Valley
Western Illinois (6-3) – at So. Illinois, vs. UNI
N.D. State (5-3) – vs. So. Illinois, vs. S.D. State, at Missouri St.
*Mo. State (4-4) – at S.D. State, at UNI, vs. N.D. State

PFL:
JU (8-1) - at Butler, vs. Campbell
Dayton (8-1) - vs. Drake, at Marist

Southland:
*Sam Houston (4-4) – vs. McNeese, at Central Ark., vs. Texas State
*McNeese (4-4) – at S.H. St., vs. Texas St., at Central Ark.
C. Ark. (5-3) – at Texas St., vs. S.H. St., vs. McNeese

Southern:
Chattanooga (5-3) – at Auburn, vs. Samford, at Wofford
*Ga. Southern (4-4) – vs. Appy St., at W. Carolina, at Furman
*Furman (4-4) – vs. W. Carolina, at Elon, vs. Ga. Southern


It looks very promising for Jacksonville to get an at-large bid now.

Here is the question to ask ourselves. Will a 4-loss CAA or SoCon team with 1-2 FBS losses, and losses to ranked FCS teams get in over a Jacksonville team with no wins against a ranked team and only one game played against a ranked team?

[Lehigh Football Nation]

My thoughts:

* Get over this now: a 9-2 South Carolina State team, with their history of scaring App and their only losses coming in a tight game vs. Bethune Cookman and an FBS loss, will be in the playoffs. Book it.

* Impossible that the Missouri Valley only gets one team in. NDSU looks especially rosy - even if they lose one more game their win over Kansas will propel them in. Western Illinois at 7-4 might even get consideration, though the only way to ensure they make it is to win out. They do that, they're in, period.

* Unless Central Arkansas runs the table, it's awfully hard to picture a second team from the Southland making the field with a 7-4 record.

* UMass is in if they run the table - but I think they have to beat Delaware to do it.

* JMU is in, at 7-4 if they run the table because they beat Virginia Tech. Richmond at 7-4 would be a tougher sell.

* Chatty has to go beat Auburn or Wofford to make the playoffs. They are not going to make it at 7-4 and a bunch of almost wins against great teams. If they do win, though, they're going to be in the playoffs for sure.

* Georgia Southern needs to win out to make the playoffs. If they upset the No. 1 team in the country and win out, they would have the resume to make the playoffs.

* Erase Furman off the list of at-large candidates now. They could get to 7-4, but with no good wins and out-of-conference wins against 4-4 Colgate and terrible Howard, they don't even deserve to be on here right now.

* Might as well put Eastern Washington in as Big Sky champs, with their only remaining conference game being against Idaho State. If Weber beats Montana State, too, things could get real interesting for at-large bids. Montana/Montana State could then be a playoff game, and Weber State would also be in play.

[mcveyrl]

* UMass is in if they run the table - but I think they have to beat Delaware to do it.

* JMU is in, at 7-4 if they run the table because they beat Virginia Tech. Richmond at 7-4 would be a tougher sell.



Interesting scenario that was created by the UMass win on Saturday: JMU has to win out to be 7-4, their best wins would be Va. Tech and W&M. If UMass were to lose to UD but win otherwise, they'd be 7-4, with their best wins being W&M and JMU....

The possibility of multiple CAA teams finishing at 7-4 is what makes the losses to UNH and UMass that much more of a shot to our playoff hopes.

[SumItUp]

IMO, Any team with 7 D1 wins from the CAA, Big Sky, MVFC or Southern will make the playoff field before an at-large from the Big South, Great West, MEAC, NEC or Pioneer. Last year, 27 teams finished with 7 D1 wins. It is possible, there will be more, but it is likely that there will only be 22-25 teams. With the expansion to 20 teams this year, a few surprise picks that never had an opportunity in the past will be selected. Could it be a second team from the Big South, MEAC or NEC? Does the Pioneer get its first at-large selection? Could it be a 6 win team that is selected?

[Walkon79]

Not so fast with Montana State, they have a very tough game against hot Weber team and end the regular season AT Montana.
Go Eagles!!

Not so fast #2. Don't you still have to play Sac State, a team that destroyed NAU on the road last Saturday?

[RabidRabbit]

There is a team, In St, that could throw a big wrench into the MVFC by winning the AQ. They have two losses to WIU and NDSU, but have 3 wins. Would need to win all 3 remaining games vs UNI and @YSU & SIU to get there. Definitely need to beat UNI to make it happen. But if they beat the Panthers, and the Panthers beat Western IL, then In St could be the AQ for the Mo Valley. UNI would be tied at 6-2, but have lost the head to head.

Does an 8-3, but non-co-champ NDSU gets selected over a co-champ 7-4 UNI too, when NDSU fell to UNI? Still lots of games need to be played, but the selection committee may find their 7 D-I wins limiting them dramatically from selecting a power-house conference team getting in vs a 9-2, 10-1 non-powerhouse conference team.

Does a 2nd place 3-1, 7-3 Cal Poly get in? Wins over MT, McNeese are highlights. Loss at Texas St., SUU, and FBS, and lackluster non-counter game are lows.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

There is a team, In St, that could throw a big wrench into the MVFC by winning the AQ. They have two losses to WIU and NDSU, but have 3 wins. Would need to win all 3 remaining games vs UNI and @YSU & SIU to get there. Definitely need to beat UNI to make it happen. But if they beat the Panthers, and the Panthers beat Western IL, then In St could be the AQ for the Mo Valley. UNI would be tied at 6-2, but have lost the head to head.

Does an 8-3, but non-co-champ NDSU gets selected over a co-champ 7-4 UNI too, when NDSU fell to UNI? Still lots of games need to be played, but the selection committee may find their 7 D-I wins limiting them dramatically from selecting a power-house conference team getting in vs a 9-2, 10-1 non-powerhouse conference team.

Does a 2nd place 3-1, 7-3 Cal Poly get in? Wins over MT, McNeese are highlights. Loss at Texas St., SUU, and FBS, and lackluster non-counter game are lows.

Great heads-up. Indeed, Indiana State in the AQ would definitely throw a monkey wrench in the proceedings.

[MacThor]

I am rooting for the CAA nightmare scenario:

UNH over W&M
Richmond gets Laub, Grayson, and I dunno, 3 more starters back and runs the table, beating JMU 6-0 and W&M 9-7.
UD over UMass.

That would leave the UD-VU game as the CAA championship game, with the loser a solid 2nd.

Four way tie at 5-3, 7-4 between UNH, UR, UMass, W&M - which would be broken in that order. The Tribe's wins over CAA1 and CAA2 are meaningless in this tiebreaker where they are 0-3.

It's also the nightmare scenario for the committee, and the Tribe - would you want to be the 6th team in the CAA up for a spot?

Likely? No. Possible? Sure.

[WestCoastAggie]

I am rooting for the CAA nightmare scenario:

UNH over W&M
Richmond gets Laub, Grayson, and I dunno, 3 more starters back and runs the table, beating JMU 6-0 and W&M 9-7.
UD over UMass.

That would leave the UD-VU game as the CAA championship game, with the loser a solid 2nd.

Four way tie at 5-3, 7-4 between UNH, UR, UMass, W&M - which would be broken in that order. The Tribe's wins over CAA1 and CAA2 are meaningless in this tiebreaker where they are 0-3.

It's also the nightmare scenario for the committee, and the Tribe - would you want to be the 6th team in the CAA up for a spot?

Likely? No. Possible? Sure.

If this happens, all 6 teams will be playing in the playoffs.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I am rooting for the CAA nightmare scenario:

UNH over W&M
Richmond gets Laub, Grayson, and I dunno, 3 more starters back and runs the table, beating JMU 6-0 and W&M 9-7.
UD over UMass.

That would leave the UD-VU game as the CAA championship game, with the loser a solid 2nd.

Four way tie at 5-3, 7-4 between UNH, UR, UMass, W&M - which would be broken in that order. The Tribe's wins over CAA1 and CAA2 are meaningless in this tiebreaker where they are 0-3.

It's also the nightmare scenario for the committee, and the Tribe - would you want to be the 6th team in the CAA up for a spot?

Likely? No. Possible? Sure.

Those profiles you're looking at indeed are awful similar - all have an FBS loss. UNH's stands out because they'd both have the worst losses (URI, Maine) and the best wins (W&M in your scenario, UMass head-to-head, Richmond head-to-head, JMU). If you put a gun to my head I'd say UNH gets a bid in that scenario. If Lehigh ends up winning the Patriot League, that would give them another win against a "playoff team" and that would help, too.

IMO, I'm not so sure the other three make it. W&M would have lost three of their last four games. UMass would be almost completely hanging their hat on a Week 1 win over W&M, now a bubble team. And while UR would have finished strong, their best win too would be against W&M.

W&M could also lose to JMU as well as UNH, putting them at 6-5 and out of contention.

I think you want a 1-2 finish for W&M, beating UNH but losing to JMU and Richmond. That you put you in the best possible situation on the CAA bubble. UR wants as many 6-5 CAA teams as possible.

[MacThor]

Those profiles you're looking at indeed are awful similar - all have an FBS loss. UNH's stands out because they'd both have the worst losses (URI, Maine) and the best wins (W&M in your scenario, UMass head-to-head, Richmond head-to-head, JMU). If you put a gun to my head I'd say UNH gets a bid in that scenario. If Lehigh ends up winning the Patriot League, that would give them another win against a "playoff team" and that would help, too.

IMO, I'm not so sure the other three make it. W&M would have lost three of their last four games. UMass would be almost completely hanging their hat on a Week 1 win over W&M, now a bubble team. And while UR would have finished strong, their best win too would be against W&M.

W&M could also lose to JMU as well as UNH, putting them at 6-5 and out of contention.

I think you want a 1-2 finish for W&M, beating UNH but losing to JMU and Richmond. That you put you in the best possible situation on the CAA bubble. UR wants as many 6-5 CAA teams as possible.

There may be only 24 (or even fewer) teams with 7 D1 victories. In the 4-way tie, it is possible for all 4 to make it. UR would have the wins over W&M and UMass. I don't think on 10/21 the committee would say "Hey UR, nice win at Williamsburg yesterday, but we're sending the Tribe with their identical record to the playoffs instead of you."

[Lehigh Football Nation]

There may be only 24 (or even fewer) teams with 7 D1 victories. In the 4-way tie, it is possible for all 4 to make it. UR would have the wins over W&M and UMass. I don't think on 10/21 the committee would say "Hey UR, nice win at Williamsburg yesterday, but we're sending the Tribe with their identical record to the playoffs instead of you."

See: Liberty, 2009. Not a perfect analogy, but pretty close.

[MacThor]

See: Liberty, 2009. Not a perfect analogy, but pretty close.

Funny, I don't recall Liberty winning their last game and their opponent going to the playoffs. Not analogous at all.

[DJKyR0]

WIU vs. UNI should be a doozy to finish the regular season. The MVFC title will probably go to the winner of that game.

[udchuck]

Tied at 6-0. They don't play each other because of the schedule when the league expanded.

BTW, Jacksonville is on a lot of people's mind when it comes to the playoffs - Sports Network had JU in the postseason in their bracket last week.

The Sports Network has JU on their mind because JU ran up a score on a Team a #1 High School Team can beat.I would give my right arm to see a Dayton/ JU game. and don't give me that crap you will score a ton of points on them.

[udchuck]

Jacksonville worthy? Hmm...not necessiarly. They are showing on the field that they should be considered but it's not even 100% certain that they would even win the PFL, which is required for them to get an At-Large berth and their OOC schedule is just terrible, just like the MEAC, etc...

But JMU's & UTC's resume with a 6-5 record should not be considered over an 7-4 MVFC or Big Sky team or even an 7-4 SLC team.

With a 6-5 record, JMU would be 3-5 in the CAA and UTC would be 4-4 in the So. Con.

Jacksonville worthy ?? Absolutely, JU can and will beat any team in the NEC and most teams in the other conferences If they get in the playoffs. Not a doubt in my mind.

[aceinthehole]

Jacksonville worthy ?? Absolutely, JU can and will beat any team in the NEC and most teams in the other conferences If they get in the playoffs. Not a doubt in my mind.

Jacksonville MIGHT be able to beat some NEC teams this year, but the fact is we don't KNOW that. You have to play that game.

Since the TSN and Coach's polls seem to be about "respect" earned from previous seasons as well as the current one, then answer this question for me - what is JU best non-conference win in the past 5 seasons?

If you are hanging your hat on a single win vs ODU this year, that is pretty sad.

Here's some of the teams JU has LOST to recently:
ODU (2009)
App St (2010 & 2008)
Samford (2009)
Albany (2008)
Wagner (2007)
Bethune-Cookman (2007)
Gardner-Webb (2007 & 2006)
Southeastern Louisana (2006)

[Nebuta]

I am rooting for the CAA nightmare scenario:

UNH over W&M
Richmond gets Laub, Grayson, and I dunno, 3 more starters back and runs the table, beating JMU 6-0 and W&M 9-7.
UD over UMass.

That would leave the UD-VU game as the CAA championship game, with the loser a solid 2nd.

Four way tie at 5-3, 7-4 between UNH, UR, UMass, W&M - which would be broken in that order. The Tribe's wins over CAA1 and CAA2 are meaningless in this tiebreaker where they are 0-3.

It's also the nightmare scenario for the committee, and the Tribe - would you want to be the 6th team in the CAA up for a spot?

Likely? No. Possible? Sure.

OMG. I am with you there MacThor, that would be pretty freaking awesome. A CAA Playoff nightmare hehe.

[BIRDMAN]

Um, Cal Poly is 6-3 with wins over two of the teams on your "at large" list. Poly plays at South Dakota next week followed
by UC Davis at home

How can poly go with out winning there own conference? Southern Utah completely dominated the conference and should go before poly

[udchuck]

Jacksonville MIGHT be able to beat some NEC teams this year, but the fact is we don't KNOW that. You have to play that game.

Since the TSN and Coach's polls seem to be about "respect" earned from previous seasons as well as the current one, then answer this question for me - what is JU best non-conference win in the past 5 seasons?

If you are hanging your hat on a single win vs ODU this year, that is pretty sad.

Here's some of the teams JU has LOST to recently:
ODU (2009)
App St (2010 & 2008)
Samford (2009)
Albany (2008)
Wagner (2007)
Bethune-Cookman (2007)
Gardner-Webb (2007 & 2006)
Southeastern Louisana (2006)

The past is the past,I'm talking about this years team.Jacksonville THIS year is much better than the last 4 years.

[Saint3333]

The past is the past,I'm talking about this years team.Jacksonville THIS year is much better than the last 4 years.

Not much of a benchmark.

[Mr. C]

There you go, that is the right scenario schedule I mentioned. Very VERY good wins and no bad losses. That 6-5 team would get in over a 10-1 Jacksonville.
No chance a six-win team gets into the playoffs. The committee isn't going to take a team with less than seven wins as an at-large. That's why those criteria are in the handbook.

On the subject of Jacksonville, I have two DVDs of them this season, the loss to ASU and the win over Old Dominion. I have also seen other game DVDs of Jacksonville in past seasons to give me an idea of the Dolphins' progression.

My breakdown of them is that they are very talented at the skill positions and have a nice scheme, designed by coach Kerwin Bell. He impresses me as a coach for his Xs and Os and for the way he has built this program. Jacksonville is much improved on defense. That was what impressed me more about their game with Appalachian State. The game against the Mountaineers was much closer through three quarters than some on here have indicated. I think what you saw, for the most part, was that ASU wore Jacksonville down. Remember you have 63 scholarships against zero. Beating a decent Old Dominion team was a good win for the Dolphins in my opinion.

On the subject of AQs: The PFL requested an AQ and was turned down by the committee this season. From what I am aware of, it was largely the case of the PFL needing to wait its turn, like the NEC and Big South did, and for the league to work on things such as scheduling. At some point, one of two things will happen. The playoffs will expand to 24 teams, or the PFL will get an AQ if a league like the MEAC chooses to withdraw from the playoffs.

On the subject of the Bridge AQ: The fact that Jacksonville didn't win two games against auto-bid conferences makes that a non-factor this year. For the record, the committee has requested information from the Coaches Poll, The Sports Network and the modified GPI and averages those together as part of the Bridge AQ criteria. If a team is in the top 20, they meet one of the Bridge AQ criteria. I dream of a 24-team tournament that has both the PFL and the Ivy League with auto bids.

I am a proponent of diversity when handing out at-large spots. I would rather see a team representing different conferences, rather than some 7-4 team from a power conference. Win some games, if you want to get in. If you can't win eight games, I don't think you should be in, period. I'd go back to the old rule on that, if I was making them. I would be in favor of seeing a 10-1 Jacksonville team, a 9-2 South Carolina State squad, or an 8-3 Cal Poly unit getting in because of the diversity it brings. Sorry, but I don't want to see a bunch of CAA rematches in the playoffs.

One other thing, for those of you who don't think that strong performances in losing playoff games count for much, consider than South Carolina State was one play away from beating Appalachian State in the first round of last year's playoffs. That was an ASU team that itself came within a play or two of going to the national title game. In the same vein, I watched Holy Cross of the Patriot League give Villanova all it wanted in a first-round game. I would argue that Holy Cross probably played better against Villanova in last year's playoffs than Montana did. There were some bad officiating calls that prevented the Holy Cross game from being even tighter than it was. Andy Talley said that Dominic Randolph was the best QB the Wildcats saw all year.

[Mr. C]

Not much of a benchmark.

That's really poor, Saint. Give an up and coming team a bit more credit. You have to be blind to not see how much this program has improved in a short amount of time.

[Mr. C]

How can poly go with out winning there own conference? Southern Utah completely dominated the conference and should go before poly

Cal Poly might have lost head-to-head to Southern Utah, but the fact is that SUU will probably finish 6-5 and Cal Poly does have some nice wins. Beating Montana anywhere and going down to McNeese State and winning is impressive for ANY team. Sorry that the Great West Conference doesn't meet the criteria for an AQ.

[NovaWildcat]

Mr. C, I understand it's fair to say that you'd rather see 1 team from conference X than a 5th or 6th team from conference Y. That makes sense on the basis that this is a shot at a Championship, and if you're the 6th best team in your own conference you're probably not title worthy.

Where I think the logic fails is that "you should have at least 8 wins." To give JU any credit for beating the bottom of their division, or a DII, is unfair to those teams that actually go out and play tough games. To a certain extent there has to be accountability for an SOS - how could you possibly think otherwise? JU has ONE quality win. I just don't buy that quantity of wins matters that much when the quality of opponents is so poor.

Now obviously a lot still has to shake out so we can't jump the gun just yet. The CAA and SoCon still have to beat up on each other quite a bit.

[Mr. C]

Mr. C, I understand it's fair to say that you'd rather see 1 team from conference X than a 5th or 6th team from conference Y. That makes sense on the basis that this is a shot at a Championship, and if you're the 6th best team in your own conference you're probably not title worthy.

Where I think the logic fails is that "you should have at least 8 wins." To give JU any credit for beating the bottom of their division, or a DII, is unfair to those teams that actually go out and play tough games. To a certain extent there has to be accountability for an SOS - how could you possibly think otherwise? JU has ONE quality win. I just don't buy that quantity of wins matters that much when the quality of opponents is so poor.

Now obviously a lot still has to shake out so we can't jump the gun just yet. The CAA and SoCon still have to beat up on each other quite a bit.

With that logic, than Boise State would have no shot at playing for a BCS title either. How many teams are rushing out to schedule Jacksonville? And is it the Dolphins' fault they don't draw Dayton this season? Teams are in particular leagues for a number of reasons and shouldn't be penalized because of that. Like I said earlier, I'd like to see a 24-team playoff that included the PFL and the Ivy League with auto-bids. Diversity is great for college football, particularly in the playoffs. Putting a 7-4 team in doesn't do anything for the playoffs. When was the last time you saw a 7-4 team do anything of significance in the playoffs?

[TBIRDSFN10]

Cal Poly might have lost head-to-head to Southern Utah, but the fact is that SUU will probably finish 6-5 and Cal Poly does have some nice wins. Beating Montana anywhere and going down to McNeese State and winning is impressive for ANY team. Sorry that the Great West Conference doesn't meet the criteria for an AQ.

Mr. C, what if SUU pulls off an upset @ E. Wash, does 7-4 SUU make it over 8-3 POLY?

[TBIRDSFN10]

With that logic, than Boise State would have no shot at playing for a BCS title either. How many teams are rushing out to schedule Jacksonville? And is it the Dolphins' fault they don't draw Dayton this season? Teams are in particular leagues for a number of reasons and shouldn't be penalized because of that. Like I said earlier, I'd like to see a 24-team playoff that included the PFL and the Ivy League with auto-bids. Diversity is great for college football, particularly in the playoffs. Putting a 7-4 team in doesn't do anything for the playoffs. When was the last time you saw a 7-4 team do anything of significance in the playoffs?

Boise st. would not make it to BCS if they lost to Alabama 45-14. When your in a lower conference you have to schedule up and win or else your out.

[NovaWildcat]

Exactly. The margin for error with a weaker-conference team is none. They beat App and we're not having this discussion. The fact of the matter was that they got beat in their only meaningful game.

It's unfortunate because this may be a great team that could make a run at the playoffs. But they're going to need a lot of help to get in.

[emilimo701]

With that logic, than Boise State would have no shot at playing for a BCS title either. How many teams are rushing out to schedule Jacksonville? And is it the Dolphins' fault they don't draw Dayton this season? Teams are in particular leagues for a number of reasons and shouldn't be penalized because of that. Like I said earlier, I'd like to see a 24-team playoff that included the PFL and the Ivy League with auto-bids. Diversity is great for college football, particularly in the playoffs. Putting a 7-4 team in doesn't do anything for the playoffs. When was the last time you saw a 7-4 team do anything of significance in the playoffs?

Plenty of 3-loss teams have made the final... so you think no 7-4 (with, say, a close, last-second loss to another playoff-caliber team) would ever have a chance of making a championship run? I'm not arguing against you, but I can't agree with you because there simply isn't enough history yet to confirm or refute a conjecture that a 7-4 team would make a playoff less intersting than a 10-1 team that "diversifies" the field.

[tribefan40]

There may be only 24 (or even fewer) teams with 7 D1 victories. In the 4-way tie, it is possible for all 4 to make it. UR would have the wins over W&M and UMass. I don't think on 10/21 the committee would say "Hey UR, nice win at Williamsburg yesterday, but we're sending the Tribe with their identical record to the playoffs instead of you."

I still think if W&M wins one more we're in regardless. Wins over #1 and #2 this year and a close game with FBS have been enough to turn heads. I think even with a late surge, the committee would look down on UR and JMU, who (due to injuries and other concerns) have looked awful at points this year. Just don't see it. xtwocentsx

[Saint3333]

That's really poor, Saint. Give an up and coming team a bit more credit. You have to be blind to not see how much this program has improved in a short amount of time.

No that is reality. Yes they improved greatly, but they really only had one way to go, hence the comment. I'll stand by a statement earlier that JU would go 2-7 (maybe 3-6) vs. the SoCon. Like you said they don't have the depth to compete with full scholarship programs like the ones that make the playoffs. As everyone knows I'm completely against playoff expansion, watering down the one part of the FCS that sets us apart.

[aceinthehole]

With that logic, than Boise State would have no shot at playing for a BCS title either. How many teams are rushing out to schedule Jacksonville? And is it the Dolphins' fault they don't draw Dayton this season? Teams are in particular leagues for a number of reasons and shouldn't be penalized because of that. Like I said earlier, I'd like to see a 24-team playoff that included the PFL and the Ivy League with auto-bids. Diversity is great for college football, particularly in the playoffs. Putting a 7-4 team in doesn't do anything for the playoffs. When was the last time you saw a 7-4 team do anything of significance in the playoffs?

Mr. C - what if Bosie lost to Virginia Tech by 31 points, would they be a BCS at-large contender?

A single LOSS is not a reason to be ranked. Jacksonville LOST to App St. by 31 points!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I'm glad you think it was a "good" game, but it was a loss.

The 10 point win vs. ODU is decent, but that alone is not worthy of a ranking. Add in the horrible SOS from the PFL league slate (and the fact they don't play arguably the best PFL team in Dayton), not to mention sub-DI game vs Weber, and there is NO REASON to consider them for the top-25 or an at-large.

And the losses they piled up in previous years (without any quality wins), means they have little 'benifit of the doubt' or credibiliy heading inton this season.

[MacThor]

I still think if W&M wins one more we're in regardless. Wins over #1 and #2 this year and a close game with FBS have been enough to turn heads. I think even with a late surge, the committee would look down on UR and JMU, who (due to injuries and other concerns) have looked awful at points this year. Just don't see it. xtwocentsx

I think they're in too. In fact, I think in my nightmare scenario, it's more a nightmare for Jacksonville and SC St, because the committee could be compelled to put 6 CAA teams in.

However, my point was that it would be incredibly difficult for them to justify putting a 5-3, 7-4 W&M in over a 5-3, 7-4 UR who just beat the Tribe in Williamsburg the day before the selection.

I believe the Tribe is one of the top 5 teams in the country right now. But they don't want to be the team that drops from "CAA tier 1" to "CAA tier 2" late in the season. And in the 4-way tie scenario, they don't want to be the 0-3 team in the round robin either. I guarantee the committee would look at head-to-head results among tied teams.

[IaaScribe]

Southern Utah can't get to seven DI victories, so the at-large discussion for the Thunderbirds is moot.

[R.A.]

Jacksonville beat ODU by 10 earlier this year AND ODU just smacked Hampton this past week, So? ..............

SC State Beat Hampton 10-7 and FAMU 19-0, So?........

[WestCoastAggie]

Southern Utah can't get to seven DI victories, so the at-large discussion for the Thunderbirds is moot.

So Cal Poly is also out of the At-Large conversation as well, unless SUU loses some games in the conference?

[doc pepper]

CP will have 7 D1 wins if they beat USD this weekend and UCD next weekend. They would end up 8-3 with a win against DII Humboldt State.

[WildCat In The Hat]

I think they're in too. In fact, I think in my nightmare scenario, it's more a nightmare for Jacksonville and SC St, because the committee could be compelled to put 6 CAA teams in.

However, my point was that it would be incredibly difficult for them to justify putting a 5-3, 7-4 W&M in over a 5-3, 7-4 UR who just beat the Tribe in Williamsburg the day before the selection.

I believe the Tribe is one of the top 5 teams in the country right now. But they don't want to be the team that drops from "CAA tier 1" to "CAA tier 2" late in the season. And in the 4-way tie scenario, they don't want to be the 0-3 team in the round robin either. I guarantee the committee would look at head-to-head results among tied teams.

All good points. In reality there are, not so far fetched, scenarios where either Del, Nova, W&M, UMASS or UNH could WIN the CAA. Is the league tie-breaker head to head? If so, is it odd to think that UNH's bad losses could actually help them (if, and BIG if) if they win out and get into a tie breaker scenario for the title? Also, look out for UMASS. They may have the best shot at running the table from here on out. A real tough (but not impossible) game at home against Del-then two winnable games against Rhoy and Maine.
It's gonna be a wild 3 weeks.

[IaaScribe]

Southern Utah has nothing do with Cal Poly. If Cal Poly gets to 8-3, it will be under consideration. The Great West teams might as well be independent in the eyes of the committee, because their conference does not qualify for an automatic bid.

[molly]

All good points. In reality there are, not so far fetched, scenarios where either Del, Nova, W&M, UMASS or UNH could WIN the CAA. Is the league tie-breaker head to head? If so, is it odd to think that UNH's bad losses could actually help them (if, and BIG if) if they win out and get into a tie breaker scenario for the title?

If 2 or more teams tie, they will be co-champions and share the title. The tie breaker is only for the autobid, which really doesn't matter since any CAA co-champs would be in the playoffs regardless.

[WestCoastAggie]

CP will have 7 D1 wins if they beat USD this weekend and UCD next weekend. They would end up 8-3 with a win against DII Humboldt State.

Oh...ok. The reason why I asked is that checking out the standings on ESPN.com and SUU is 4-0 and thus in 1st place in the Great West yet these teams are considered independents.

[WildCat In The Hat]

If 2 or more teams tie, they will be co-champions and share the title. The tie breaker is only for the autobid, which really doesn't matter since any CAA co-champs would be in the playoffs regardless.

Makes sense..thanks

[WestCoastAggie]

Southern Utah has nothing do with Cal Poly. If Cal Poly gets to 8-3, it will be under consideration. The Great West teams might as well be independent in the eyes of the committee, because their conference does not qualify for an automatic bid.

That was confusing me just a bit. I was reading the current edition of the handbook and it said that if a conference doesn't get an Auto bid, conference winner could be admited to the playoffs if it met criteria that included winning 8 games.

I didn't know that applied to independent teams and the Great West teams were considered indy now.

[danefan]

That was confusing me just a bit. I was reading the current edition of the handbook and it said that if a conference doesn't get an Auto bid, conference winner could be admited to the playoffs if it met criteria that included winning 8 games.

I didn't know that applied to independent teams and the Great West teams were considered indy now.

The Bridge AQ does not apply to the Great West. It only applies to teams that qualify for an AQ but are not awarded one (e.g. PFL, Ivy and SWAC). The Great West does not qualify and therefore the Bridge AQ does not apply.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

The Bridge AQ does not apply to the Great West. It only applies to teams that qualify for an AQ but are not awarded one (e.g. PFL, Ivy and SWAC). The Great West does not qualify and therefore the Bridge AQ does not apply.

Which makes for a potentially interesting decision for the committee. Cal Poly has history on their side (they've been an at-large before) and playoff success (they've beaten Montana at Montana). They'd be an 8/7 team, 8 wins, 7 D-I wins. They will have survived a brutal schedule, which involved travelling to Virginia, Texas, and Louisiana apart from their Great West conference trips. However, their only Top 25 win would have come against Montana (who, sotto voce, might not make the playoffs) and have lost their conference championship to Southern Utah. Topping it off, they're barely in the Top 25 at #23.

Would the playoff subcommittee be willing to overlook the lack of quality wins (if Montana doesn't qualify) and their lack of a GWC championship in order to put them in the field? It's a burning question.

Worthy of mention is that they might have one prerequisite for the bridge (two wins over AQ conferences) but not the third (a top 16 ranking), even though the bridge is not supposed to apply to them.

[danefan]

Which makes for a potentially interesting decision for the committee. Cal Poly has history on their side (they've been an at-large before) and playoff success (they've beaten Montana at Montana). They'd be an 8/7 team, 8 wins, 7 D-I wins. They will have survived a brutal schedule, which involved travelling to Virginia, Texas, and Louisiana apart from their Great West conference trips. However, their only Top 25 win would have come against Montana (who, sotto voce, might not make the playoffs) and have lost their conference championship to Southern Utah. Topping it off, they're barely in the Top 25 at #23.

Would the playoff subcommittee be willing to overlook the lack of quality wins (if Montana doesn't qualify) and their lack of a GWC championship in order to put them in the field? It's a burning question.

Worthy of mention is that they might have one prerequisite for the bridge (two wins over AQ conferences) but not the third (a top 16 ranking), even though the bridge is not supposed to apply to them.

I think Cal Poly is in with 7 DI wins. They have cost-containment on their side as well by putting more Western teams in the bracket.

[VUCats02]

With that logic, than Boise State would have no shot at playing for a BCS title either. How many teams are rushing out to schedule Jacksonville? And is it the Dolphins' fault they don't draw Dayton this season? Teams are in particular leagues for a number of reasons and shouldn't be penalized because of that. Like I said earlier, I'd like to see a 24-team playoff that included the PFL and the Ivy League with auto-bids. Diversity is great for college football, particularly in the playoffs. Putting a 7-4 team in doesn't do anything for the playoffs. When was the last time you saw a 7-4 team do anything of significance in the playoffs?

I would think that a 7-4 UNH team would be a lot scarier than Jacksonville, but I could be wrong. One thing you have to realize, is that teams that aren't in major conferences don't take much of a beating throughout the year, so they come into the playoffs a lot healthier than CAA, Southern Conf. teams - so I'll give you that. You say that you want diversity, but correct me if I'm wrong - shouldn't the at large bids go to the best teams regardless of where they are located? Yeah, diversity makes it fun - and it would have been nice if Nova could have played someone outside of the patriot league and CAA in route to their N.C. last year, but I think if 5-6 of the best football teams in the country for FCS are all in the same conference, you have to let them all in. Quality of the football teams is more important than getting in teams from everywhere. I'd rather see an App St - Chatanooga rematch than an App St - Jacksonville rematch in the playoffs.

[WestCoastAggie]

I think Cal Poly is in with 7 DI wins. They have cost-containment on their side as well by putting more Western teams in the bracket.

Would Cal-Poly be more deserving of a At-Large bid than SC State, JMU or UTC (with 6-5 records) or Jacksonville U?

[IaaScribe]

The only argument would be for Cal Poly vs. S.C. State or Jacksonville. No 6-5 team is going to make it. Seeing the GPI, I just don't think S.C. State is going to be a factor. There isn't a quality win on the resume. Cal Poly and Jacksonville actually have a common opponent in Old Dominion, and both teams won in Norfolk. Cal Poly also has a win over Montana, whereas Jacksonville has no other quality win and will be lower in the GPI.

[danefan]

Would Cal-Poly be more deserving of a At-Large bid than SC State, JMU or UTC (with 6-5 records) or Jacksonville U?

Not sure if they are more deserving or not, but I think the committee takes a 7-3 Cal Poly team over a 6-win team and I definitely think they take a 7-win Cal Poly team over SC State. Its a toss-up between JU and Cal Poly for that spot, and I honestly think it depends on what the rest of the bracket looks like. If the NCAA needs a West Coast game in the Opening round then Cal Poly is in. If not, then I can see JU at 10-1 in over a 7-3 Cal Poly.

[danefan]

Want to throw a real loop in the analysis?

What happens if Liberty doesn't win the Big South? Coastal, Stony Brook and Liberty are still all in the picture for the Big South AQ. Its likely to come down to SBU @ Liberty on November 20th for the title.

I do not think Liberty would be in line for an at-large if they lost. That would really open the door for Jacksonville.

[IaaScribe]

Liberty has no shot at an at-large. What's interesting is that if Coastal loses at VMI this week (not out of the question) and if Liberty wins at home against Gardner-Webb (probably), then the Liberty-Coastal game the following week becomes irrelevant. Liberty could lose that game and still win the league by beating Stony Brook at home. Either way, the Big South champion will be playing Nov. 27. I have no doubt about that.

[danefan]

Liberty has no shot at an at-large. What's interesting is that if Coastal loses at VMI this week (not out of the question) and if Liberty wins at home against Gardner-Webb (probably), then the Liberty-Coastal game the following week becomes irrelevant. Liberty could lose that game and still win the league by beating Stony Brook at home. Either way, the Big South champion will be playing Nov. 27. I have no doubt about that.

VMI didn't look too bad against Army last weekend. I imagine they were "playing up" but they should have a chance against Coastal.

[DirtyBird]

Can any anyone tell me for sure(from the rule book), I was under the impression that the 7 win rule was not really a rule but more a preference? If it is the case than SUU having swept the Great West and If (a big IF) they beat probable big sky champ and auto qualifyer E Wash at Eastern. I see no way you could logically admitt Poly or any other Big Sky team over SUU. Just Dreaming for a long shot!

[danefan]

Can any anyone tell me for sure(from the rule book), I was under the impression that the 7 win rule was not really a rule but more a preference? If it is the case than SUU having swept the Great West and If (a big IF) they beat probable big sky champ and auto qualifyer E Wash at Eastern. I see no way you could logically admitt Poly or any other Big Sky team over SUU. Just Dreaming for a long shot!

Its a guideline, but no team in recent history has ever been granted an at-large with less than 7 DI wins.

Exact language (emphasis included in original):




The won-lost record of a team will be scrutinized to determine a team’s strength of

schedule; however, less than seven Division I wins may place a team in jeopardy of not being selected;


http://web1.ncaa.org/web_files/champ_handbooks/football/2010/10_1_football.pdf


If you start getting into 6 win teams then there are a couple other teams that need to be in the picture as well as SUU.

[DirtyBird]

No dought that opens up the discussion for other teams other than SUU. Also when in rescent history has the playoffs allowed 20 teams. Not saying we deserve to go but if you are talking about Poly or a second or third big sky team we deffinatly have to be considered before them.

[aceinthehole]

I think this year a team will need 7 wins TOTAL (including up to 1 non-DI win), and no more than 4 losses.

Any 7-4 team from the CAA, Big Sky, SoCon, MVC, or SLC will get in over a 2nd team from the MEAC/PFL/Big South/PL/NEC.

[HensRock]

... since any CAA co-champs would be in the playoffs regardless.

I seem to recall there was a year where we had a 4-way tie atop the A-10 and I think Nova was left out.
Can't remeber exactly when, ...late 90's maybe.

[molly]

I seem to recall there was a year where we had a 4-way tie atop the A-10 and I think Nova was left out.
Can't remeber exactly when, ...late 90's maybe.

Could be. I should have specified that I was referring to this year and not all years past, present, and future.

[HensRock]

Could be. I should have specified that I was referring to this year and not all years past, present, and future.

Just saying there was a precedent where it didn't happen, so I don't think it's a guarantee, even this year.

I think I understand where Mr. C is going with this. The reason the playoffs were expanded from 16 to 20 teams was to give other conferences a chance to partcipate, not so that more "power conference" teams could get in with worse records than before. I think the theme here is to level the playing field and provide greater access to the playoffs across the board. There is a balance between getting the best 20 teams in the tournament and providing equal opportunity to partcipate. I am not saying I agree or disagree with the approach, but I think that is why the field was expanded and I think that is the theme that the selection committee will operate by. Under that premise, I think Jacksonville has a chance to make the field.

[DSUrocks07]

Just saying there was a precedent where it didn't happen, so I don't think it's a guarantee, even this year.

I think I understand where Mr. C is going with this. The reason the playoffs were expanded from 16 to 20 teams was to give other conferences a chance to partcipate, not so that more "power conference" teams could get in with worse records than before. I think the theme here is to level the playing field and provide greater access to the playoffs across the board. There is a balance between getting the best 20 teams in the tournament and providing equal opportunity to partcipate. I am not saying I agree or disagree with the approach, but I think that is why the field was expanded and I think that is the theme that the selection committee will operate by. Under that premise, I think Jacksonville has a chance to make the field.

That may have been the PC reasoning, yet we all know the truth xthumbsupx

if Jacksonville's GPI isn't in the Top 20 by the end of the season, they just be left out for a 7-4 JMU team (or even a 6-5 JMU xeekx)

[VUCats02]

My opinion is that they did not expand the tournament to get a better balance of teams throughout the country. The men's basketball tournament was also expanded by 4 teams this year - and it is for the "clemsons, syracuses, and florida states" that they did this. If they did it for the non-major conferences, they wouldn't have made the expansion so that the teams will now compete for a 12th seed - which is a seed a major conference bubble team usually gets. My thinking is that the FCS football expansion was for the same reason. It's for the 7-4 chatanooga's and new hampshire's rather than 2nd place big south, pl, nec teams etc. This is only my thinking for why they expanded.

[WileECoyote06]

The only argument would be for Cal Poly vs. S.C. State or Jacksonville. No 6-5 team is going to make it. Seeing the GPI, I just don't think S.C. State is going to be a factor. There isn't a quality win on the resume. Cal Poly and Jacksonville actually have a common opponent in Old Dominion, and both teams won in Norfolk. Cal Poly also has a win over Montana, whereas Jacksonville has no other quality win and will be lower in the GPI.

Don't you think it's kind of unfair because Poly is only tied to four conference games? Cal Poly can schedule seven additional opponents of varying strength. SCSU can only schedule three. SCSU and BCU are being hurt severely by their conference mates.
I hope the committee takes this into account, if it comes down to choosing between SCSU and Poly; or Poly/SSU and Jacksonville; or any other similar scenario.

[bigchocolate]

Just saying there was a precedent where it didn't happen, so I don't think it's a guarantee, even this year.

I think I understand where Mr. C is going with this. The reason the playoffs were expanded from 16 to 20 teams was to give other conferences a chance to partcipate, not so that more "power conference" teams could get in with worse records than before. I think the theme here is to level the playing field and provide greater access to the playoffs across the board. There is a balance between getting the best 20 teams in the tournament and providing equal opportunity to partcipate. I am not saying I agree or disagree with the approach, but I think that is why the field was expanded and I think that is the theme that the selection committee will operate by. Under that premise, I think Jacksonville has a chance to make the field.

I'm hoping that Mr. C is right here also. The last couple of years I personally would have loved to have seen the Big South Champion in the Playoffs instead of a 4th/5th place CAA team. If you can't finish in the top 3 and in the case of the CAA this year maybe 4, you should watch the playoffs from home just like the rest of the nation. One of the top 3 from the CAA will win the NC if they are as good as advertised anyway so why load the playoff field with 5 teams from the same conference. The lower tier teams from this conference has already proven that they are not as good as the top tier... 5 team equate to 25% (20 team) of the "National" playoff field...makes no sense does it?

[MSUDuo]

Missouri Valley
Western Illinois (6-3) – at So. Illinois, vs. UNI
N.D. State (5-3) – vs. So. Illinois, vs. S.D. State, at Missouri St.
*Mo. State (4-4) – at S.D. State, at UNI, vs. N.D. State



If Missouri State wins out, they won't need an at-large, they will have won the conference and the auto-bid. Well, that is if UNI beats Indiana State this weekend as well...

[tribefan40]

I'm hoping that Mr. C is right here also. The last couple of years I personally would have loved to have seen the Big South Champion in the Playoffs instead of a 4th/5th place CAA team. If you can't finish in the top 3 and in the case of the CAA this year maybe 4, you should watch the playoffs from home just like the rest of the nation. One of the top 3 from the CAA will win the NC if they are as good as advertised anyway so why load the playoff field with 5 teams from the same conference. The lower tier teams from this conference has already proven that they are not as good as the top tier... 5 team equate to 25% (20 team) of the "National" playoff field...makes no sense does it?

I would buy that argument if they didn't win. For the first two rounds in 2008 and 2009 the CAA entries went 12-5 in 15 games, (two losses came at the hands of another CAA team). So the CAA went 10-3 against entries from other conferences, and all 3 losses were to another conferences' champion. The only non-AQ teams to make the semifinals the last two years have been from the CAA. (both years were the 3rd CAA team or worse) I'm not trying to be a homer, but the playoffs are meant for the best teams to compete for the championship. I'm not saying at-large teams from other conferences can't compete, but putting teams in just to diversify defeats the purpose. xtwocentsx

[DSUrocks07]

I would buy that argument if they didn't win. For the first two rounds in 2008 and 2009 the CAA entries went 12-5 in 15 games, (two losses came at the hands of another CAA team). So the CAA went 10-3 against entries from other conferences, and all 3 losses were to another conferences' champion. The only non-AQ teams to make the semifinals the last two years have been from the CAA. (both years were the 3rd CAA team or worse) I'm not trying to be a homer, but the playoffs are meant for the best teams to compete for the championship. I'm not saying at-large teams from other conferences can't compete, but putting teams in just to diversify defeats the purpose. xtwocentsx

THIS is where you get into the same arguments that behoove the Men's Basketball tournament. Is this supposed to be the best teams from ALL the conferences, or the best 20 teams in all of FCS, because those two classes are at times mutually exclusive...as much as we would like to not believe them to be. xscanx

[emilimo701]

Want to throw a real loop in the analysis?

What happens if Liberty doesn't win the Big South? Coastal, Stony Brook and Liberty are still all in the picture for the Big South AQ. Its likely to come down to SBU @ Liberty on November 20th for the title.

I do not think Liberty would be in line for an at-large if they lost. That would really open the door for Jacksonville.

What? How so? What would change?

[bigchocolate]

THIS is where you get into the same arguments that behoove the Men's Basketball tournament. Is this supposed to be the best teams from ALL the conferences, or the best 20 teams in all of FCS, because those two classes are at times mutually exclusive...as much as we would like to not believe them to be. xscanx

That is the question of the day. I think this is a national playoff. I did take the time and look at a few of the older playoff brackets (approx. 6 years worth) and I didn't see any team with 3 loses advancing unless they were playing another 3 or 4 lose team and as soon as they played a team with fewer than 3 loses they were eliminated (If I miss one, it was an oversight). I'm sure if I had continued looking I would have been able to find a 3 or maybe a 4 lose team which was successful in the playoffs but their success rate across time statistically doesn't make them any more attractive than a 9-2 or 10-1 conference champion or second place team from one of the "lesser conferences"...If 1. a conference represents 25% of the field, 2. Are seeded thus being paired with teams which are usually the last ones in, 3. Play at home, 4. Can't play each other in the 1st round, and 5.With the previously listed items, the probability of playing a familiar conference foes in later rounds is rather high. Notice, I never said that the CAA was not fielding great teams because they have been really good overal this decade. What I'm saying is they've increased their probability of success artificially. Let the teams and conferences of America prove it on the field. If we are going to behave like the BCS then we should not complain about their practices. xnodx

[soccerguy315]

That is the question of the day. I think this is a national playoff. I did take the time and look at a few of the older playoff brackets (approx. 6 years worth) and I didn't see any team with 3 loses advancing unless they were playing another 3 or 4 lose team and as soon as they played a team with fewer than 3 loses they were eliminated (If I miss one, it was an oversight). I'm sure if I had continued looking I would have been able to find a 3 or maybe a 4 lose team which was successful in the playoffs but their success rate across time statistically doesn't make them any more attractive than a 9-2 or 10-1 conference champion or second place team from one of the "lesser conferences"...If 1. a conference represents 25% of the field, 2. Are seeded thus being paired with teams which are usually the last ones in, 3. Play at home, 4. Can't play each other in the 1st round, and 5.With the previously listed items, the probability of playing a familiar conference foes in later rounds is rather high. Notice, I never said that the CAA was not fielding great teams because they have been really good overal this decade. What I'm saying is they've increased their probability of success artificially. Let the teams and conferences of America prove it on the field. If we are going to behave like the BCS then we should not complain about their practices. xnodx

the 2008 National Champion Richmond Spiders of the CAA (8-3, 6-2 in the CAA) would like a word. They needed 5+ turnovers in the last game of the season to beat 7-4 William and Mary. You might remember this lowly 3 loss team as the team that won their playoff games by 28 over Eastern Kentucky, 20 over App State (@ASU), 1 over UNI (@UNI), and 17 over Montana (neutral), for an average of 16.5 point differential per game.

You want teams to prove it on the field... the CAA does that every year in the playoffs and in their out of conference schedule.

You should be careful arguing that teams with more loses in the regular season don't advance as far in the playoffs, because someone else might say that conferences that never win a playoff game don't deserve to be there, since all they do is lose.

If the multi-loss CAA teams don't deserve to be there, then beat them in the first round.

[MacThor]

That is the question of the day. I think this is a national playoff. I did take the time and look at a few of the older playoff brackets (approx. 6 years worth) and I didn't see any team with 3 loses advancing unless they were playing another 3 or 4 lose team and as soon as they played a team with fewer than 3 loses they were eliminated (If I miss one, it was an oversight). I'm sure if I had continued looking I would have been able to find a 3 or maybe a 4 lose team which was successful in the playoffs but their success rate across time statistically doesn't make them any more attractive than a 9-2 or 10-1 conference champion or second place team from one of the "lesser conferences"...If 1. a conference represents 25% of the field, 2. Are seeded thus being paired with teams which are usually the last ones in, 3. Play at home, 4. Can't play each other in the 1st round, and 5.With the previously listed items, the probability of playing a familiar conference foes in later rounds is rather high. Notice, I never said that the CAA was not fielding great teams because they have been really good overal this decade. What I'm saying is they've increased their probability of success artificially. Let the teams and conferences of America prove it on the field. If we are going to behave like the BCS then we should not complain about their practices.

Yeah, they should have left Richmond out of the playoffs in '08.


the 2008 National Champion Richmond Spiders of the CAA (8-3, 6-2 in the CAA) would like a word.

You should be careful arguing that teams with more loses in the regular season don't advance as far in the playoffs, because someone else might say that conferences that never win a playoff game don't deserve to be there, since all they do is lose.

If the multi-loss CAA teams don't deserve to be there, then beat them in the first round.

9-3, 6-2 - but your point is valid. Remember, 2008 offered a 12-game schedule (one reason W&M missed the playoffs was that they weren't 8-4 - sucks/unfair but we don't need to rehash).

Geez BigChocolate, you didn't look very hard, did you? How about 2007 UD @ 8-3. Who did they whoop in the first round, on their way to beating the #1 and #4 seeds on the road and winding up in the NC game? 44-7 over the MEAC champion. 2005 Richmond (8-3) stomped a seeded Hampton in the first round. 2005 UNI had three losses and went to the NC game ('tho they might have had an AQ).

That's a lot of "oversights."

[IaaScribe]

The argument for South Carolina State is specious. If you want to be a playoff team, you have to schedule like one, or you have to win your conference's automatic bid. We've been through the argument of how no one will come to Orangeburg, yada, yada. That's great. But that's not the committee's problem, either. A team whose OOC includes Benedict and Mississippi Valley State is going to be rightfully penalized when it comes to selection Sunday against opponents that played legitimate competition. South Carolina State had Bethune-Cookman at HOME and couldn't score. SCSU had its shot and blew it. You're not going to sell me on SCSU against Cal Poly -- which beat Montana at home and McNeese on the road -- or against UMass -- which beat a potentially seeded William & Mary team.

What message does that send if you penalize UMass for beating who was on its schedule? Right or no, teams like Liberty, Robert Morris and S.C. State have one shot at getting to the playoffs because of the weakness of their schedules. If they blow that one shot, they should stay home.

[WileECoyote06]

The argument for South Carolina State is specious. If you want to be a playoff team, you have to schedule like one, or you have to win your conference's automatic bid. We've been through the argument of how no one will come to Orangeburg, yada, yada. That's great. But that's not the committee's problem, either. A team whose OOC includes Benedict and Mississippi Valley State is going to be rightfully penalized when it comes to selection Sunday against opponents that played legitimate competition. South Carolina State had Bethune-Cookman at HOME and couldn't score. SCSU had its shot and blew it. You're not going to sell me on SCSU against Cal Poly -- which beat Montana at home and McNeese on the road -- or against UMass -- which beat a potentially seeded William & Mary team.

What message does that send if you penalize UMass for beating who was on its schedule? Right or no, teams like Liberty, Robert Morris and S.C. State have one shot at getting to the playoffs because of the weakness of their schedules. If they blow that one shot, they should stay home.

What do you think about my question about Cal Poly being able to schedule seven non-conference games as opposed to SCState and Jacksonville only having three slots available? Don't you think that's kind of unfair to hold scheduling against those teams in a direct comparison?

[IaaScribe]

Those teams don't have automatic access to the postseason. South Carolina State does.

And that's not a scheduling advantage for Cal Poly, which played five straight road games from Texas to Louisiana to Virginia to Utah.

[danefan]

What? How so? What would change?

Liberty isn't in line for an at-large now. They're either in on the Big South AQ or out. If they lose in the Big South they'll have a bad loss. Add that onto the RMU and JMU losses and you have a team without the strength of schedule to get an at-large. Same goes for RMU. If RMU doesn't get the AQ, they're not getting an at-large.

[WileECoyote06]

Those teams don't have automatic access to the postseason. South Carolina State does.

And that's not a scheduling advantage for Cal Poly, which played five straight road games from Texas to Louisiana to Virginia to Utah.

It is an advantage to get into the playoffs if they win. It isn't if they lose.

[WestCoastAggie]

IF the MEAC remains in the playoffs, the conference will be hard pressed to receive At-Large bids until the conference as a whole schedule, AND win against teams in the SoCon, CAA, Big South and whom ever will host them.

Unfortunately, this will not happen anytime soon.

The 9-Game mandate in the conference is a major crutch and many conference teams have long standing rivalries with Div-2 schools that many old alumni with BIG pockets would be pissed to see go away. And many schools, that have high enough APR's, will also schedule that second game against a BCS school so they can get $500,000 added to an already strained Athletic Budget.

I used to be p/o'd about the MEAC not getting multiple bids in the playoffs but then I started to learn more about how athletics work at the HBCU's in the conference. Sadly, playoff bids are the least of our issues

[IaaScribe]

Correct. And they won three of the five games on that swing. All South Carolina State had to do was beat Bethune-Cookman at home and clean up against the rest of what looks like the weakest auto-bid conference in the country, and the Bulldogs couldn't do it. They have no right to complain.

[WileECoyote06]

IF the MEAC remains in the playoffs, the conference will be hard pressed to receive At-Large bids until the conference as a whole schedule, AND win against teams in the SoCon, CAA, Big South and whom ever will host them.

Unfortunately, this will not happen anytime soon.

The 9-Game mandate in the conference is a major crutch and many conference teams have long standing rivalries with Div-2 schools that many old alumni with BIG pockets would be pissed to see go away. And many schools, that have high enough APR's, will also schedule that second game against a BCS school so they can get $500,000 added to an already strained Athletic Budget.

I used to be p/o'd about the MEAC not getting multiple bids in the playoffs but then I started to learn more about how athletics work at the HBCU's in the conference. Sadly, playoff bids are the least of our issues

The MEAC would be better served by playing Big South, Ohio Valley, Patriot or NEC teams. We could even beat up on Pioneer League teams, as there are three of them in the MEAC geographic imprint (Campbell, Davidson, Jacksonville). The point is to make your overall non-conference record look better, and then the MEAC will gain stature in the computers.

Or maybe this is just an unusually bad year for the MEAC. I think the non-competitive programs will use this season as a catalyst to accept the Legacy Bowl proposal.

[WestCoastAggie]

The MEAC would be better served by playing Big South, Ohio Valley, Patriot or NEC teams. We could even beat up on Pioneer League teams, as there are three of them in the MEAC geographic imprint (Campbell, Davidson, Jacksonville). The point is to make your overall non-conference record look better, and then the MEAC will gain stature in the computers.

Or maybe this is just an unusually bad year for the MEAC. I think the non-competitive programs will use this season as a catalyst to accept the Legacy Bowl proposal.

Most teams in the MEAC will not schedule those teams. The only schools that will schedule these teams will be the bottom feeders of the conference because their APR is preventing them from scheduling FBS games and they will be traveling to these schools in these conferences. Hosting these teams just don't make money for teams in the MEAC compared to our HBCU rivals, unless it's a school like Delaware State that doesn't even have a sellout for their Homecoming and doesn't make money from the gate period.

And once the conference splits into conferences and goes to an 8-game mandate, the Legacy Bowl will be happening.

Meh...

[IaaScribe]

Or maybe this is just an unusually bad year for the MEAC.

This I agree with. I can't remember a year where the bottom of this league has been as brutally bad as it has been this season.

[Cincy App]

I’m not ready to write SC State off yet. I am confident that a 7-4 team from the CAA or another power conference would make the at-large field first. However, 6-5 will not make it and Jacksonville is unlikely (they have no quality wins either and obviously also have a very weak schedule).

SC State is now at the mercy of results in other conferences. The MEAC does get consideration in years where the at-large pool is weak. It has been awhile but the MEAC did place 2 teams in the playoffs in 2003 (Bethune Cookman and NC A&T). If the at-large pool continues to shrink, their chances improve.

[WileECoyote06]

Most teams in the MEAC will not schedule those teams. The only schools that will schedule these teams will be the bottom feeders of the conference because their APR is preventing them from scheduling FBS games and they will be traveling to these schools in these conferences. Hosting these teams just don't make money for teams in the MEAC compared to our HBCU rivals, unless it's a school like Delaware State that doesn't even have a sellout for their Homecoming and doesn't make money from the gate period.

And once the conference splits into conferences and goes to an 8-game mandate, the Legacy Bowl will be happening.

Meh...

I know. I've grown to accept it now. I still think it's unfair that SSU and NCCU will not have a vote on it though. We may have sought an invitation to another conference. .

[Lehigh Football Nation]

The MEAC would be better served by playing Big South, Ohio Valley, Patriot or NEC teams. We could even beat up on Pioneer League teams, as there are three of them in the MEAC geographic imprint (Campbell, Davidson, Jacksonville). The point is to make your overall non-conference record look better, and then the MEAC will gain stature in the computers.

Or maybe this is just an unusually bad year for the MEAC. I think the non-competitive programs will use this season as a catalyst to accept the Legacy Bowl proposal.


This I agree with. I can't remember a year where the bottom of this league has been as brutally bad as it has been this season.

Folks are coming up with this blanket statement that the MEAC is bad and they schedule bad. Um...

Miami (FL) 45, FAMU 0
Central Michigan 33, Hampton 0
Maryland 62, Morgan State 3
Rutgers 31, Norfolk State 0
Georgia Tech 41, SCSU 10

That's five FBS games. That's pretty good, no? Yes, the MEAC didn't win any of those games, but at least they scheduled them.

OK, so you say: they should schedule FCS autobid conferences:

Holy Cross 38, Howard 7
Coastal Carolina 34, Delaware State 14
Tennessee State 29, FAMU 18
Furman 56, Howard 14
NDSU 35, Morgan State 9
Tennessee State 37, NCAT 7

Argue if you want that MEAC schools haven't done well against FBS/autobid FCS conferences, but please don't try to pretend that the MEAC hasn't scheduled these games. They have.

Personally, it seems to me that the MEAC are basically being criticized for scheduling other HBCUs - which enthuses their fans, are important to their school identity and also deliver $$$ to their schools. It's like saying Army shouldn't schedule VMI and instead should schedule Boise State, since it would help their BCS standing. Sometimes, there are reasons to schedule opponents that go beyond computer rankings.

My position remains that a 9-2 SCSU team is 100% in the playoffs. Really, if B-CU goes undefeated, even in a perceived weak league, and their only other loss is to bowl-bound Georgia Tech, are you really going to punish them for scheduling another HBCU for homecoming instead of, say, scheduling a Charleston Southern team that would do nothing for nobody?

[WileECoyote06]

Folks are coming up with this blanket statement that the MEAC is bad and they schedule bad. Um...

Miami (FL) 45, FAMU 0
Central Michigan 33, Hampton 0
Maryland 62, Morgan State 3
Rutgers 31, Norfolk State 0
Georgia Tech 41, SCSU 10

That's five FBS games. That's pretty good, no? Yes, the MEAC didn't win any of those games, but at least they scheduled them.

OK, so you say: they should schedule FCS autobid conferences:

Holy Cross 38, Howard 7
Coastal Carolina 34, Delaware State 14
Tennessee State 29, FAMU 18
Furman 56, Howard 14
NDSU 35, Morgan State 9
Tennessee State 37, NCAT 7

Argue if you want that MEAC schools haven't done well against FBS/autobid FCS conferences, but please don't try to pretend that the MEAC hasn't scheduled these games. They have.

Personally, it seems to me that the MEAC are basically being criticized for scheduling other HBCUs - which enthuses their fans, are important to their school identity and also deliver $$$ to their schools. It's like saying Army shouldn't schedule VMI and instead should schedule Boise State, since it would help their BCS standing. Sometimes, there are reasons to schedule opponents that go beyond computer rankings.

My position remains that a 9-2 SCSU team is 100% in the playoffs. Really, if B-CU goes undefeated, even in a perceived weak league, and their only other loss is to bowl-bound Georgia Tech, are you really going to punish them for scheduling another HBCU for homecoming instead of, say, scheduling a Charleston Southern team that would do nothing for nobody?

Well A & T and DSU were not expected to tank like that. Those who scheduled Howard, knew exactly what they were doing.

However, let's take a look at that Morgan St vs NDSU; Morgan vs BCU comparison. I know football is not supposed to be a transitive sport; but BCU smacked the hell out of Morgan in Baltimore. We'll know more about SCSU vs NDSU as at-large candidates when the Bulldogs face the Bears.