At-Large Discussion

[danefan]

Folks are coming up with this blanket statement that the MEAC is bad and they schedule bad. Um...

Miami (FL) 45, FAMU 0
Central Michigan 33, Hampton 0
Maryland 62, Morgan State 3
Rutgers 31, Norfolk State 0
Georgia Tech 41, SCSU 10

That's five FBS games. That's pretty good, no? Yes, the MEAC didn't win any of those games, but at least they scheduled them.

OK, so you say: they should schedule FCS autobid conferences:

Holy Cross 38, Howard 7
Coastal Carolina 34, Delaware State 14
Tennessee State 29, FAMU 18
Furman 56, Howard 14
NDSU 35, Morgan State 9
Tennessee State 37, NCAT 7

Argue if you want that MEAC schools haven't done well against FBS/autobid FCS conferences, but please don't try to pretend that the MEAC hasn't scheduled these games. They have.

Personally, it seems to me that the MEAC are basically being criticized for scheduling other HBCUs - which enthuses their fans, are important to their school identity and also deliver $$$ to their schools. It's like saying Army shouldn't schedule VMI and instead should schedule Boise State, since it would help their BCS standing. Sometimes, there are reasons to schedule opponents that go beyond computer rankings.

My position remains that a 9-2 SCSU team is 100% in the playoffs. Really, if B-CU goes undefeated, even in a perceived weak league, and their only other loss is to bowl-bound Georgia Tech, are you really going to punish them for scheduling another HBCU for homecoming instead of, say, scheduling a Charleston Southern team that would do nothing for nobody?

So your GPI would be off by something like 35 spots if SCST gets an at-large. How do you rectify that?

[WestCoastAggie]

So your GPI would be off by something like 35 spots if SCST gets an at-large. How do you rectify that?

I thought the Committee doesn't look at the GPI besides the modified version for the Bridge AQ?

[danefan]

I thought the Committee doesn't look at the GPI besides the modified version for the Bridge AQ?

That's partly my point - if the Committee uses the GPI SCST has no chance. If SCST gets an at-large it pretty much proves that the Committee doesn't give much weight to the GPI if any, or at least didn't in that year. It also proves that the GPI isn't really all that accurate for purposes of predicting the at-larges as it is billed to be.

BTW - I don't think the commmittee really uses the GPI for anything besides the Bridge. The Committee has stated on record that they have their own ranking system which they update on their weekly conference calls.

[aceinthehole]

Folks are coming up with this blanket statement that the MEAC is bad and they schedule bad. Um...

Miami (FL) 45, FAMU 0
Central Michigan 33, Hampton 0
Maryland 62, Morgan State 3
Rutgers 31, Norfolk State 0
Georgia Tech 41, SCSU 10

That's five FBS games. That's pretty good, no? Yes, the MEAC didn't win any of those games, but at least they scheduled them.

OK, so you say: they should schedule FCS autobid conferences:

Holy Cross 38, Howard 7
Coastal Carolina 34, Delaware State 14
Tennessee State 29, FAMU 18
Furman 56, Howard 14
NDSU 35, Morgan State 9
Tennessee State 37, NCAT 7

Argue if you want that MEAC schools haven't done well against FBS/autobid FCS conferences, but please don't try to pretend that the MEAC hasn't scheduled these games. They have.

Personally, it seems to me that the MEAC are basically being criticized for scheduling other HBCUs - which enthuses their fans, are important to their school identity and also deliver $$$ to their schools. It's like saying Army shouldn't schedule VMI and instead should schedule Boise State, since it would help their BCS standing. Sometimes, there are reasons to schedule opponents that go beyond computer rankings.

My position remains that a 9-2 SCSU team is 100% in the playoffs. Really, if B-CU goes undefeated, even in a perceived weak league, and their only other loss is to bowl-bound Georgia Tech, are you really going to punish them for scheduling another HBCU for homecoming instead of, say, scheduling a Charleston Southern team that would do nothing for nobody?

Very good point LFN! The schedule may not be very weak but the RESULTS are.

The MEAC is 0-11 in those game. The 0-6 vs FCS teams from AQ conferences is really what is most glaring and damaging.

Just look at the NEC this year - even our teams with losing conference records have non-conference wins vs AQ conferences.

Albany (1-4 NEC) has wins over Maine and Yale.
Sacred Heart (1-5 NEC) has a win over Georgetown
Wagner (2-3 NEC) has wins over Cornell and Georgetown.
Bryant (2-3 NEC) has a win over Fordham.

[WestCoastAggie]

Very good point LFN! The schedule may not be very weak but the RESULTS are.

The MEAC is 0-11 in those game. The 0-6 vs FCS teams from AQ conferences is really what is most glaring and damaging.

Just look at the NEC this year - even our teams with losing conference records have non-conference wins vs AQ conferences.

Albany (1-4 NEC) has wins over Maine and Yale.
Sacred Heart (1-5 NEC) has a win over Georgetown
Wagner (2-3 NEC) has wins over Cornell and Georgetown.
Bryant (2-3 NEC) has a win over Fordham.

Ace,

As valid as these stats are, they don't matter!

As long as the NEC does what they need to do in the playoffs, you all will receive the same benefits as the MEAC, if not, most likely more.

[soccerguy315]

Yeah, they should have left Richmond out of the playoffs in '08.
9-3, 6-2 - but your point is valid. Remember, 2008 offered a 12-game schedule (one reason W&M missed the playoffs was that they weren't 8-4 - sucks/unfair but we don't need to rehash).

my bad, I even found the schedule, but I guess I was more focused on the losses than the wins, haha. Didn't mean to steal a win away from that very talented squad! xhurrayx

[DSUrocks07]

Very good point LFN! The schedule may not be very weak but the RESULTS are.

The MEAC is 0-11 in those game. The 0-6 vs FCS teams from AQ conferences is really what is most glaring and damaging.

Just look at the NEC this year - even our teams with losing conference records have non-conference wins vs AQ conferences.

Albany (1-4 NEC) has wins over Maine and Yale.
Sacred Heart (1-5 NEC) has a win over Georgetown
Wagner (2-3 NEC) has wins over Cornell and Georgetown.
Bryant (2-3 NEC) has a win over Fordham.

NEC victories
Fordham (4-5)
Georgetown (3-6)
Cornell (2-5)
Yale (5-2)
Maine (3-5)

MEAC losses
Furman (4-4)
Tennessee State (3-5)
North Dakota State (3-5)
Holy Cross (4-4)
Coastal Carolina (3-5)

Verdict: All our hopes are riding on BCU making a good showing. But at the end of the day, say goodbye to the playoffs MEAC.

[Dane96]

Ace,

As valid as these stats are, they don't matter!

As long as the NEC does what they need to do in the playoffs, you all will receive the same benefits as the MEAC, if not, most likely more.

What exactly has the MEAC done in the playoffs? Ahhhhh...that's right a close loss. Albany lost to UCONN in the first round of the NCAA Hoop tourney...an epic near upset of 16 vs. 1. Doesn't mean the AE is getting an extra hoop bid.

Come on guys...that MEAC schedule is sad; the results that is. Those FBS teams are pretty poor this year...and the blows to the FCS teams are enough said on the subject.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

NEC victories
Fordham (4-5)
Georgetown (3-6)
Cornell (2-5)
Yale (5-2)
Maine (3-5)

MEAC losses
Furman (4-4)
Tennessee State (3-5)
North Dakota State (5-3)
Holy Cross (4-4)
Coastal Carolina (3-5)

Verdict: All our hopes are riding on BCU making a good showing. But at the end of the day, say goodbye to the playoffs MEAC.

Minor correction.

[WileECoyote06]

NEC victories
Fordham (4-5)
Georgetown (3-6)
Cornell (2-5)
Yale (5-2)
Maine (3-5)

MEAC losses
Furman (4-4)
Tennessee State (3-5)
North Dakota State (3-5)
Holy Cross (4-4)
Coastal Carolina (3-5)

Verdict: All our hopes are riding on BCU making a good showing. But at the end of the day, say goodbye to the playoffs MEAC.

Average GPI for listed NEC wins: 82 in three different conferences
Average GPI for listed MEAC losses 59.2 in five different conferences

Maybe the MEAC should have scheduled easier teams. xeyebrowx

[danefan]

Average GPI for listed NEC wins: 82 in three different conferences
Average GPI for listed MEAC losses 59.2 in five different conferences

Maybe the MEAC should have scheduled easier teams. xeyebrowx


Now now, let's not cherry pick.

NEC FCS OOC wins:
Maine
Yale
Fordham
Bucknell
Dayton
Liberty
Marist
Cornell
Georgetown (2)
Avergae GPI - 80

NEC FCS OOC Loses:
SFA
New Hampshire
YSU
Delaware
Colgate
Maine
Old Dominion
Dayton
Dartmouth
Morehead State
Liberty
Average GPI - 45


MEAC FCS OOC Wins:
Savannah St (2)
NC Central (2)
Miss. Valley State
Average GPI - 117

MEAC FCS OOC Loses:
Southern
Coastal Carolina
Tenn State
Holy Cross
Furman
NDSU
NC Central
Average GPI - 74


Average MEAC OOC Win GPI - 117
Average NEC OOC Win GPI - 80

Average MEAC OOC Loss GPI - 74
Average NEC OOC Loss GPI - 45

Mayve the NEC should schedule easier? xsmiley_wix

[aceinthehole]

Average MEAC OOC Win GPI - 117
Average NEC OOC Win GPI - 80

Average MEAC OOC Loss GPI - 74
Average NEC OOC Loss GPI - 45

Does everyone see what us NEC guys have been saying? The MEAC and PL has more than enough close losses - they just doesn't have the quality wins. I'm not hating on the MEAC (or the PL/Ivy), but the FACTS are the NEC has done more over the past few seasons than either conference without the benifit of an AQ.

Closes losses to power teams are fine and have some value, but when you don't have any meaningfull wins to go along with that, you have a weak case. The NEC has a long list of close losses to top-20 teams throughout the years. But we also have a few wins vs ranked teams and have many more wins vs AQ conference teams. And we do all this with about 30 less scholarships!

My point is and this - the NEC is being unfairly treaded by the MEDIA and COACHES. I know a lot of posters here have come to see the light, but there is no reason that the NEC has to "prove it" over MEAC, SWAC, PL and Ivy teams when they already have!

[WestCoastAggie]

Does everyone see what us NEC guys have been saying? The MEAC and PL has more than enough close losses - they just doesn't have the quality wins. I'm not hating on the MEAC (or the PL/Ivy), but the FACTS are the NEC has done more over the past few seasons than either conference without the benifit of an AQ.

Closes losses to power teams are fine and have some value, but when you don't have any meaningfull wins to go along with that, you have a weak case. The NEC has a long list of close losses to top-20 teams throughout the years. But we also have a few wins vs ranked teams and have many more wins vs AQ conference teams. And we do all this with about 30 less scholarships!

My point is and this - the NEC is being unfairly treaded by the MEDIA and COACHES. I know a lot of posters here have come to see the light, but there is no reason that the NEC has to "prove it" over MEAC, SWAC, PL and Ivy teams when they already have!

This is all fine and dandy but I really don't think that voters are suddendly going to just drop B-CU and SCSU from their polls and just prop up RMU & CCSU.

[aceinthehole]

This is all fine and dandy but I really don't think that voters are suddendly going to just drop B-CU and SCSU from their polls and just prop up RMU & CCSU.

You are right, they won't - but it doesn't mean they shouldn't!

RMU is and should have been a top-25 team for weeks. If CCSU wins, they should be in the top-25 come Monday.

Any argument that BCU or SCSU is more "deserving" of a ranking is based on bias, not on facts!

[WestCoastAggie]

You are right, they won't - but it doesn't mean they shouldn't!

RMU is and should have been a top-25 team for weeks. If CCSU wins, they should be in the top-25 come Monday.

Any argument that BCU or SCSU is more "deserving" of a ranking is based on bias, not on facts!

Have you taken the time to bombard the writers who vote in the TSN.com poll with these facts or to solicit more writers who cover NEC sports to vote in the poll?

[FloridaDog]

Wow, 27 pages of comments. I want Jacksonville to get a bid just to watch some of your heads explode.

[danefan]

Wow, 27 pages of comments. I want Jacksonville to get a bid just to watch some of your heads explode.

Haha. xlolxxlolxxlolx Me too................

[WileECoyote06]

You are right, they won't - but it doesn't mean they shouldn't!

RMU is and should have been a top-25 team for weeks. If CCSU wins, they should be in the top-25 come Monday.

Any argument that BCU or SCSU is more "deserving" of a ranking is based on bias, not on facts!

CCSU's early ranking went up in smoke the minute Youngstown scored that 63rd point. I have no idea what the bias is against Robert Morris though.

[WileECoyote06]

Now now, let's not cherry pick.

NEC FCS OOC wins:
Maine
Yale
Fordham
Bucknell
Dayton
Liberty
Marist
Cornell
Georgetown (2)
Avergae GPI - 80

NEC FCS OOC Loses:
SFA
New Hampshire
YSU
Delaware
Colgate
Maine
Old Dominion
Dayton
Dartmouth
Morehead State
Liberty
Average GPI - 45


MEAC FCS OOC Wins:
Savannah St (2)
NC Central (2)
Miss. Valley State
Average GPI - 117

MEAC FCS OOC Loses:
Southern
Coastal Carolina
Tenn State
Holy Cross
Furman
NDSU
NC Central
Average GPI - 74


Average MEAC OOC Win GPI - 117
Average NEC OOC Win GPI - 80

Average MEAC OOC Loss GPI - 74
Average NEC OOC Loss GPI - 45

Mayve the NEC should schedule easier? xsmiley_wix
I know I'm just teasing.

[danefan]

I know I'm just teasing.

No worries. I'm really more intrigued by the rapid rise of the NEC in the computer rankings and GPI. The NEC went from consistently being at the bottom of the conference rankings to jumping over 4 or 5 historically stronger conferences in the matter of 1 year.

I think I've concluded its really because our bottom teams finnally put together some OOC wins.

[WestCoastAggie]

List of FCS Playoff Committee Members:

The revised membership committee is:

Nicholls State
App. State
Morgan State
Coastal Carolina
Lafayette
U Mass.
Montana
Eastern Kentucky
Youngstown State
Central Conn. State

[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
o’[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]

NCAA Staff:

Dennis Poppe
Vice President for Baseball and Football
[email protected]

Damani Leech (Very smart brother--Only about 35 years old)
Director for Baseball and Football
[email protected]

Chad Tolliver
Coordinator for Baseball and Football
[email protected]

J.D. Hamilton
Assistant Director of Statistics
[email protected]

Kim Giles
Executive Assistant for Baseball and Football
[email protected]

Ace, you have no excuse in not bombarding these members with emails with the stats and info you post here.

[WileECoyote06]

No worries. I'm really more intrigued by the rapid rise of the NEC in the computer rankings and GPI. The NEC went from consistently being at the bottom of the conference rankings to jumping over 4 or 5 historically stronger conferences in the matter of 1 year.

I think I've concluded its really because our bottom teams finnally put together some OOC wins.

Can we borrow some of those games against the Patriot and Ivy League for 2011? We'll give em back in 2012. Yall can play the Big South and SWAC.

[danefan]

Can we borrow some of those games against the Patriot and Ivy League for 2011? We'll give em back in 2012. Yall can play the Big South and SWAC.

Ha. Nice try! We're keeping the smart kids for ourselves.

[IaaScribe]

That's an old list, West Coast. Moose Koegel is no longer even the AD at Coastal, and Liberty AD Jeff Barber is on the committee representing the Big South.

[danefan]

List of FCS Playoff Committee Members:

The revised membership committee is:

Nicholls State
App. State
Morgan State
Coastal Carolina
Lafayette
U Mass.
Montana
Eastern Kentucky
Youngstown State
Central Conn. State

[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
o’[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]

NCAA Staff:

Dennis Poppe
Vice President for Baseball and Football
[email protected]

Damani Leech (Very smart brother--Only about 35 years old)
Director for Baseball and Football
[email protected]

Chad Tolliver
Coordinator for Baseball and Football
[email protected]

J.D. Hamilton
Assistant Director of Statistics
[email protected]

Kim Giles
Executive Assistant for Baseball and Football
[email protected]

Ace, you have no excuse in not bombarding these members with emails with the stats and info you post here.

Where did this list come from?

The Committee in the 2010 Handbook is as follows:

Correct

Central

Mark Sandy - AD - EKU
Ron Strollo - AD - YSU
Tim Wabler - AD - Dayton

East
Jeff Bourne - AD - JMU
Craig Coleman - AD - Robert Morris
Bruche McCutcheon - AD - Lafayette

South
Jeff Barber - AD - Liberty
Wheeler Brown - AD - NC A&T
Charles Cobb - AD - App State

West
Richard Bernardi - AD - Nicholls State
Jim O'Day - AD - Montana

[IaaScribe]

This year's committee:

Mark Sandy, Eastern Kentucky
Ron Strollo, Youngstown State
Tim Wabler, Dayton
Jeff Bourne, James Madison
Craig Coleman, Robert Morris
Bruce McCutcheon, Lafayette
Jeff Barber, Liberty
Wheeler Brown, North Carolina A&T
Charles Cobb, Appalachian State
Richard Bernardi, Nicholls State
Jim O'Day, Montana

[TypicalTribe]

If Indiana State and WIU win out, they tie for the MVFC title with Western getting the edge due to head-to-head. Where does ISU stand as an at-large candidate with a co-championship and an 8-3 record if two of the wins are sub-DI?

[danefan]

If Indiana State and WIU win out, they tie for the MVFC title with Western getting the edge due to head-to-head. Where does ISU stand as an at-large candidate with a co-championship and an 8-3 record if two of the wins are sub-DI?

At or near the top of the 6 DI wins heap. I think they're in over a 2nd team from a weaker conference, but I don't think its a lock. Sure they scheduled stupidly, but I think being the co-Champ of the MVFC gets in even without 7 DI wins in a 20-team playoff..

[WileECoyote06]

This year's committee:

Mark Sandy, Eastern Kentucky
Ron Strollo, Youngstown State
Tim Wabler, Dayton
Jeff Bourne, James Madison
Craig Coleman, Robert Morris
Bruce McCutcheon, Lafayette
Jeff Barber, Liberty
Wheeler Brown, North Carolina A&T
Charles Cobb, Appalachian State
Richard Bernardi, Nicholls State
Jim O'Day, Montana

Wheeler Brown was fired from A & T. Does anyone know his replacement.

Notes: He was fired because of the death involved with the scandal surrounding the track team.

[TypicalTribe]

Here's the "nuclear" scenario as I see it:

Big Sky - Weber beats MSU, loses to NAU, Texas Tech. Result: EWU, MSU/UM winner get in
Big South - Liberty
Great West - Cal Poly loses one of last two. No team has 7 DI wins
MEAC - BCC gets AQ
MVFC - NDSU loses a game (out with 4 conference losses), MSU and ISU lose games to be eliminated and WIU loses both. Result: UNI gets only bid
Northeast - Robert Morris runs the table for AQ
OVC - SEMO and JSU both in
Patriot - Lehigh
Southern - Chatty, Furman and GSU all lose 5+ games. Wofford/ASU get bids
Southland - Only SFA manages 7+ wins

Believe it or not, that's 12 teams for 9 AQ bid conferences. Now, it's not hard to see 5 CAA teams finishing 7-4 or better. So, let's assume they all get in. That still leaves 3 spots. I'll give one to SCSU. Awfully hard not to give other bids to combination of JU, Dayton and CCSU.

Not amazingly far-fetched and would certainly be fun to watch.

[RabidRabbit]

If Indiana State and WIU win out, they tie for the MVFC title with Western getting the edge due to head-to-head. Where does ISU stand as an at-large candidate with a co-championship and an 8-3 record if two of the wins are sub-DI?

With only 6 wins D-I, likely out with the rest of the 6 D-I winners.

[danefan]

Here's the "nuclear" scenario as I see it:

Big Sky - Weber beats MSU, loses to NAU, Texas Tech. Result: EWU, MSU/UM winner get in
Big South - Liberty
Great West - Cal Poly loses one of last two. No team has 7 DI wins
MEAC - BCC gets AQ
MVFC - NDSU loses a game (out with 4 conference losses), MSU and ISU lose games to be eliminated and WIU loses both. Result: UNI gets only bid
Northeast - Robert Morris runs the table for AQ
OVC - SEMO and JSU both in
Patriot - Lehigh
Southern - Chatty, Furman and GSU all lose 5+ games. Wofford/ASU get bids
Southland - Only SFA manages 7+ wins

Believe it or not, that's 12 teams for 9 AQ bid conferences. Now, it's not hard to see 5 CAA teams finishing 7-4 or better. So, let's assume they all get in. That still leaves 3 spots. I'll give one to SCSU. Awfully hard not to give other bids to combination of JU, Dayton and CCSU.

Not amazingly far-fetched and would certainly be fun to watch.


If that's the case, I think the 7 DI win "guideline" goes out the window and its becomes a 7 win guideline.

[aceinthehole]

If that's the case, I think the 7 DI win "guideline" goes out the window and its becomes a 7 win guideline.

I've been saying this for weeks. If you get to 7-4 (even with a non-DI win) from the CAA, Big Sky, SoCon, MVFC, and SLC you will get the nod over a 2nd team from the rest of the field. Indiana State would really stretch this with 2 non D-I wins, but as a MVFC co-champ, likely gets in.

I also think a 7-4 Cal Poly or SUU (each with 1 sub-DI win) gets before a PFL/MEAC/PL/NEC/Big South team.

[emilimo701]

Wow, 27 pages of comments. I want Jacksonville to get a bid just to watch some of your heads explode.

LOL ^this

[Mr. C]

Very good point LFN! The schedule may not be very weak but the RESULTS are.

The MEAC is 0-11 in those game. The 0-6 vs FCS teams from AQ conferences is really what is most glaring and damaging.

Just look at the NEC this year - even our teams with losing conference records have non-conference wins vs AQ conferences.

Albany (1-4 NEC) has wins over Maine and Yale.
Sacred Heart (1-5 NEC) has a win over Georgetown
Wagner (2-3 NEC) has wins over Cornell and Georgetown.
Bryant (2-3 NEC) has a win over Fordham.

You are making a huge mistake here. The NCAA is on record that it doesn't look at potential at-large candidates as being from this conference, or that conference, so the only thing that matters is a team's record and schedule, not what FCS teams that its conference lost to. What Howard does against team X or Y doesn't have any bearing on South Carolina State, according to the NCAA party line.

[danefan]

You are making a huge mistake here. The NCAA is on record that it doesn't look at potential at-large candidates as being from this conference, or that conference, so the only thing that matters is a team's record and schedule, not what FCS teams that its conference lost to. What Howard does against team X or Y doesn't have any bearing on South Carolina State, according to the NCAA party line.

Except when you look at who Team X has played, the vast majority of that schedule is made up of what conference they are in. So SCST is directly effected by what all of its opponents do. If they lose the SOS goes down and vice versa.

[Mustang Man]

One word. History. History in the top 25 and history in the playoffs will be the deciding factor on which teams get the final few at-large bids. A 8-3 or 7-4 team with a history of being in the playoffs or being in the top 25 year in, year out will make the playoffs over a 10-1 team with a soft schedule.

[SkinsWizDukes]

Didn't read the entire thread nor do I really care to, but if JMU wins out and finishes 7-4 they will be in. With that said, very slim chance it happens.

[heath]

Didn't read the entire thread nor do I really care to, but if JMU wins out and finishes 7-4 they will be in. With that said, very slim chance it happens.

JMU probably will not win out until they get an offense,BUT I agree that 1 or 2,( 7-4) teams from the CAA could get in,but as long as you include a 10-1 JU team.Don't care about the shouda,coulda,etc. If Boise ST can play for the national title then Jacksonville can be included in a 20 team playoff.

[emilimo701]

JMU probably will not win out until they get an offense,BUT I agree that 1 or 2,( 7-4) teams from the CAA could get in,but as long as you include a 10-1 JU team.Don't care about the shouda,coulda,etc. If Boise ST can play for the national title then Jacksonville can be included in a 20 team playoff.

can != will

and... um... Boise St. != Jacksonville

post FTL

[Indians75]

Can't see Jacksonville getting in with a loss. Jim Harbaugh couldn't get a wiff with a great USD team a few years ago. Pioneer league simply does not have the gravitas.