Ideal situation for NDSU

[MplsBison]

Yes it's a bit silly to project like this with three weeks still left in the regular season, but for fun:

UNI - wins out - 7-1 in conference, sole 1st place, gets AQ

WIU - loses at SIU and loses vs UNI - 4-4 in conf
In St - loses vs UNI, don't care at YSU and loses at SIU - 4-4 or 3-5 in conf
MO St - don't care at SDSU, loses at UNI and loses vs NDSU - 4-4 or 3-5 in conf
SDSU - don't care vs MO St, loses at NDSU - 4-4 or 3-5 in conf
Ill St - don't care vs YSU - 4-4 or 3-5 in conf
SIU - loses at NDSU, beats WIU and beats In St - 4-4 in conf
YSU - don't care at Ill St and don't care vs In St - 1-7, 2-6 or 3-5 in conf

NDSU - wins out - 5-3 in conf, sole 2nd place, gets at-large

A *ton* of assumptions there, esp. for NDSU to win out. Every single one of those games will be hard fought.


BUT - *if* that happens, then you have UNI with the AQ at 8-3 and NDSU likely with an at-large at 8-3.


I'll make another assumption: Eastern Washington gets the Big Sky's AQ and Montana St and Montana get at-large bids.


Now I'm about to make two HUGE assumptions that could be completely and utterly false, even if the above scenario somehow unfolds: neither UNI nor Eastern Washington get a top 4 seed and thus all Big Sky and MVFC schools in the playoffs will be bidding to host first round games.


What this means is that it would almost be a lock that Montana and NDSU would host first round games as the NCAA will want to maximize playoff revenue and those two schools have the two largest stadiums to host.


Love it or hate it, that is what I see as being the best possible case for NDSU. A lot of thing have to go perfectly right for that to happen.

xtwocentsx

[rabbit101]

sure doesnt hurt to dream a little. since the jacks cant make the playoffs, im cheering for the bison. of course, im not cheering for the bison to beat the jacks in a couple weeks. so maybe im not cheering for the bison to make the playoffs. if by some freak of nature, you finally break the 3 game losing streak to the jacks, i will be cheering you on. i think.

[darell1976]

Whats the most amount of teams to make the playoffs from the MVFC?

[ST_Lawson]

I think that'd be 4 teams.
In 2003, Southern Illinois (10-1), Northern Iowa (9-2), Western Illinois (8-3), and Western Kentucky (8-3) all made the playoffs.

WIU's schedule included a win over I-A Eastern Michigan, and a respectable loss to eventual National Champion LSU. Their other two regular season losses were to SIU and UNI.
UNI's losses were to Iowa State (by 7 points) and Western Kentucky.
WKU lost to Auburn and Western Illinois.
SIU's only loss was to UNI.

I don't know what the final regular season poll looked like, but the final (after playoffs) poll had all 4 teams in the top 10.

Referencing:
http://www.mvc.org/football/standings.pdf
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=1665641
http://www.nmnathletics.com/fls/12000/stats/football/2003/TEAMGBG.HTM
http://www.unipanthers.com/sports/m-footbl/stats/2003-2004/teamgbg.html
http://www.wkusports.com/SportSelect.dbml?SPSID=28820&SPID=2242&DB_OEM_ID=5400&Q_SEASON=2003
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/teams/ssn/schedule?y=2003
http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page=cfoot2/misc/2003_poll.htm

[MplsBison]

I think that'd be 4 teams.
In 2003, Southern Illinois (10-1), Northern Iowa (9-2), Western Illinois (8-3), and Western Kentucky (8-3) all made the playoffs.

WIU's schedule included a win over I-A Eastern Michigan, and a respectable loss to eventual National Champion LSU. Their other two regular season losses were to SIU and UNI.
UNI's losses were to Iowa State (by 7 points) and Western Kentucky.
WKU lost to Auburn and Western Illinois.
SIU's only loss was to UNI.

I don't know what the final regular season poll looked like, but the final (after playoffs) poll had all 4 teams in the top 10.

Referencing:
http://www.mvc.org/football/standings.pdf
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=1665641
http://www.nmnathletics.com/fls/12000/stats/football/2003/TEAMGBG.HTM
http://www.unipanthers.com/sports/m-footbl/stats/2003-2004/teamgbg.html
http://www.wkusports.com/SportSelect.dbml?SPSID=28820&SPID=2242&DB_OEM_ID=5400&Q_SEASON=2003
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/teams/ssn/schedule?y=2003
http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page=cfoot2/misc/2003_poll.htm

Nice post! Thanks for the info.


It seems like in 2003 there the MVC was very half and half, with an "elite" half and a "below-average" half. Thus the good four beat the all the lower four teams for an easy 4-0.

This year, OTOH, almost any team can beat any other team in the league on any weekend. That's good if you like "parity", but bad if you like seeing as many MVFC teams in the playoffs as possible!

[ST_Lawson]

Nice post! Thanks for the info.

It seems like in 2003 there the MVC was very half and half, with an "elite" half and a "below-average" half. Thus the good four beat the all the lower four teams for an easy 4-0.

This year, OTOH, almost any team can beat any other team in the league on any weekend. That's good if you like "parity", but bad if you like seeing as many MVFC teams in the playoffs as possible!

Yea, you don't really have a team that's a "pushover" this year.

The other thing that helped in 2003 is how well the 4 teams did in out-of-conference games. In OOC games, those four top Gateway/MV teams were 13-3 and the three were losses to LSU, Auburn, and Iowa State (and the Iowa State-UNI game was very close), so really, games that they weren't expected to win generally.

[cderry]

WIU's schedule included a win over I-A Eastern Michigan, and a respectable loss to eventual National Champion LSU.

In that sentence, "respectable" is an understatement. The score was 13-6 LSU in the middle of the 3rd quarter in Death Valley. Next time LSU scored, they seemed scared enough of the Leathernecks that they went for 2. Sure, the final was 35-7...but LSU turned it on quite late.

[ST_Lawson]

In that sentence, "respectable" is an understatement. The score was 13-6 LSU in the middle of the 3rd quarter in Death Valley. Next time LSU scored, they seemed scared enough of the Leathernecks that they went for 2. Sure, the final was 35-7...but LSU turned it on quite late.

Yea, I just figured that "respectable" was the nice way of saying "we scared the crap outta them for 2.5 quarters". The biggest difference that game was depth. Our starters and their starters were very similar in abilities. It was only when the starters were getting tired and they were able to shuffle in their 2nd string guys that the difference showed up. Their 2nd string guys were much better than our 2nd string guys (or our 1st string guys after playing the whole game). Biggest reason is probably the additional scholarships that they can offer. They can fill out a lot more of their team with solid scholarship players, whereas we offer fewer scholarships and can't go as far into our depth chart before you see the talent level drop off quite a bit.

[MplsBison]

Yea, I just figured that "respectable" was the nice way of saying "we scared the crap outta them for 2.5 quarters". The biggest difference that game was depth. Our starters and their starters were very similar in abilities. It was only when the starters were getting tired and they were able to shuffle in their 2nd string guys that the difference showed up. Their 2nd string guys were much better than our 2nd string guys (or our 1st string guys after playing the whole game). Biggest reason is probably the additional scholarships that they can offer. They can fill out a lot more of their team with solid scholarship players, whereas we offer fewer scholarships and can't go as far into our depth chart before you see the talent level drop off quite a bit.

Since this thread is basically dead anyway...


I was thinking about your comment Lawson. Lets say that WIU gave 63 players on the team a full ride scholarship.


Isn't 63 full scholarship players enough to have good depth? NFL rosters are in the 50's, correct?


I just don't see how LSU having 85 full scholarship players vs. 63 really makes a difference.


How many different players played for both teams? If you don't count special teams, I can't imagine much more than 40 for both sides?



And this is not smack on WIU...it's a philosophical debate more than anything.

[ST_Lawson]

Since this thread is basically dead anyway...
I was thinking about your comment Lawson. Lets say that WIU gave 63 players on the team a full ride scholarship.
Isn't 63 full scholarship players enough to have good depth? NFL rosters are in the 50's, correct?
I just don't see how LSU having 85 full scholarship players vs. 63 really makes a difference.
How many different players played for both teams? If you don't count special teams, I can't imagine much more than 40 for both sides?
And this is not smack on WIU...it's a philosophical debate more than anything.

Yea, you're probably right. I know there's a lot of other factors involved, recruiting (name recognition, facilities, "prestige", etc.), more/better training staff, etc. I was just putting out one possible reason for the drop-off of talent when you get further down the depth chart.

Either way, WIU put up quite a fight against the team that eventually won the national championship that year.

[UNIFanSince1983]

Since this thread is basically dead anyway...

I was thinking about your comment Lawson. Lets say that WIU gave 63 players on the team a full ride scholarship.

Isn't 63 full scholarship players enough to have good depth? NFL rosters are in the 50's, correct?


I just don't see how LSU having 85 full scholarship players vs. 63 really makes a difference.

How many different players played for both teams? If you don't count special teams, I can't imagine much more than 40 for both sides?

And this is not smack on WIU...it's a philosophical debate more than anything.

The NFL analogy doesn't really work, though. You only have 32 NFL teams with 53 roster spots. This means you only have the elite players. With there being 120 FBS schools giving 85 they are giving scholarships, and taking players that would normally be starters on FCS teams that just warm their benches. Obviously, there are plenty of players that would rather start at an FCS school than warm a bench for Western Kentucky. This is why teams can compete at that level, but they could not compete consistently on that level due to the lack of depth. You will see a lot of times an FCS school will get worn down by the FBS school. It is a lack of depth, and a lot of times this is traced back to number scholarships, but obviously there are other factors.

I don't know if I stated that as clearly as I wanted to, but oh well. It is just fun to debate things like this from time to time.

[MplsBison]

The NFL analogy doesn't really work, though. You only have 32 NFL teams with 53 roster spots. This means you only have the elite players. With there being 120 FBS schools giving 85 they are giving scholarships, and taking players that would normally be starters on FCS teams that just warm their benches. Obviously, there are plenty of players that would rather start at an FCS school than warm a bench for Western Kentucky. This is why teams can compete at that level, but they could not compete consistently on that level due to the lack of depth. You will see a lot of times an FCS school will get worn down by the FBS school. It is a lack of depth, and a lot of times this is traced back to number scholarships, but obviously there are other factors.

I don't know if I stated that as clearly as I wanted to, but oh well. It is just fun to debate things like this from time to time.

I understand the point - just to me it seems like a lack of talent, not a lack of depth.

[UNIFanSince1983]

Well yeah I can agree with there being less talent there too, but I think I guess it would be a lack of quality depth not just 'depth'. I do understand your points though.

[Da Coach]

Yea, you're probably right. I know there's a lot of other factors involved, recruiting (name recognition, facilities, "prestige", etc.), more/better training staff, etc. I was just putting out one possible reason for the drop-off of talent when you get further down the depth chart.

Either way, WIU put up quite a fight against the team that eventually won the national championship that year.

Yes, and the other "really big" reason for the WIU team wearing down was the heat ~ it was almost 100 degrees at kickoff and it was an evening game. LSU kicked 2 field goals in the first half and were about to be leading 6-0 at half, but because the WIU defense was gassed and needed 1/2 time to get there quick, LSU scored in the last few seconds to lead 13-0 at half. WIU then had to kick off to start the 2nd half and recovered an on side kick and went in to score, making the score 13-7 and that is how it remained until almost the end of the 3rd qtr.

[MplsBison]

Yes it's a bit silly to project like this with three weeks still left in the regular season, but for fun:

UNI - wins out - 7-1 in conference, sole 1st place, gets AQ

WIU - loses at SIU and loses vs UNI - 4-4 in conf
In St - loses vs UNI, don't care at YSU and loses at SIU - 4-4 or 3-5 in conf
MO St - don't care at SDSU, loses at UNI and loses vs NDSU - 4-4 or 3-5 in conf
SDSU - don't care vs MO St, loses at NDSU - 4-4 or 3-5 in conf
Ill St - don't care vs YSU - 4-4 or 3-5 in conf
SIU - loses at NDSU, beats WIU and beats In St - 4-4 in conf
YSU - don't care at Ill St and don't care vs In St - 1-7, 2-6 or 3-5 in conf

NDSU - wins out - 5-3 in conf, sole 2nd place, gets at-large

A *ton* of assumptions there, esp. for NDSU to win out. Every single one of those games will be hard fought.


BUT - *if* that happens, then you have UNI with the AQ at 8-3 and NDSU likely with an at-large at 8-3.


I'll make another assumption: Eastern Washington gets the Big Sky's AQ and Montana St and Montana get at-large bids.


Now I'm about to make two HUGE assumptions that could be completely and utterly false, even if the above scenario somehow unfolds: neither UNI nor Eastern Washington get a top 4 seed and thus all Big Sky and MVFC schools in the playoffs will be bidding to host first round games.


What this means is that it would almost be a lock that Montana and NDSU would host first round games as the NCAA will want to maximize playoff revenue and those two schools have the two largest stadiums to host.


Love it or hate it, that is what I see as being the best possible case for NDSU. A lot of thing have to go perfectly right for that to happen.

xtwocentsx

So far, so good!

Just need UNI to beat WIU, SIU to beat IN St and NDSU to beat MO St.