Week 9 Playoff Prognostications

[TexasTerror]

The most recent playoff prognostications, courtesy of TT - barring a St. Francis upset over Cal Poly

And criticize me all you want, but it sure is fun to take a stab at this thing and I'd encourage you guys to try as well! xnodx

PREVIOUS PROGNOSTICATIONS
Memorial Day (http://anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?t=69543)
End of June (http://anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?69953-End-of-June-Playoff-Prognostications)
Start of August (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?70430-Start-of-August-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 1 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?73204-Week-1-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 2 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?73887-Week-2-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 3 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?74546-Week-3-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 4 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?75010-Week-4-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 5 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?75648-Week-5-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 6 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?76077-Week-6-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 7 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?76683-Week-7-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 8 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?77185-Week-8-Playoff-Prgonostications)

AUTOMATIC BIDS (10)

Big Sky: Eastern Washington
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: William & Mary
MEAC: Bethune Cookman
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Lehigh
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: Stephen F. Austin

AT-LARGE BIDS (10)
Big Sky: Montana State
Colonial: Delaware, Villanova, New Hampshire
Great West: Cal Poly
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: Western Illinois, North Dakota State
Ohio Valley: Southeast Missouri
Southern: Wofford

OPENING ROUND GAMES
Robert Morris @ South Carolina State
Lehigh @ New Hampshire
Cal Poly @ Montana State
Wofford @ Bethune Cookman

SECOND ROUND GAMES
So Carolina State/Robert Morris winner @ #1 Appalachian State
Western Illinois @ Villanova

Cal Poly/Montana State winner @ #4 Eastern Washington
Liberty @ #5 William & Mary

Wofford/Bethune Cookman winner @ #2 Jacksonville State
North Dakota State @ Stephen F. Austin

Lehigh/New Hampshire winner @ #3 Delaware
Southeast Missouri @ Northern Iowa

NOTES
Seeding - Again, William & Mary's loss coming later hurts them, even if they have head-to-head against Delaware and even if FBS. See BCS and how late losses hurt more.

Cal Poly - gets to the point where there are a lot of teams that you think are not getting seven wins. Cal Poly has the easiest stretch of games to make that possible.

New Hampshire - favorite for the last CAA spot. Only because win over UMass. Head-to-head goes to UNH. Don't think UNH or UMass have easier paths. UNH game at home vs Bill & Mary will tell us alot.

Chattanooga - Had to win 3 of 4 and obviously did not start the way they intended. They are out... for now.

Pioneer - Jacksonville may legitimately have a chance due to the limited number of teams to get to seven wins.

Northwestern State - Demons are the only team besides SFA that can play itself to a SLC title. If they were not going to SFA, I'd put it in their court as the AQ and SFA as the at-large from the SLC. Demons find ways to win.

Prairie View A&M - Coach speak obviously did not work well for Panthers, who are OUT.

[ToTheLeft]

Just as an FYI, not that it matters, but LU will probably bid VERY well for a home game. Probably more than William and Mary. Not sure tho, but I'd venture to say we'd pay a lot.

[TexasTerror]

Just as an FYI, not that it matters, but LU will probably bid VERY well for a home game. Probably more than William and Mary. Not sure tho, but I'd venture to say we'd pay a lot.

I realize as much... but the problem is that if you put a CAA team on the road at a non-seeded Big South team, you are opening yourself for negative criticism! Last week, the criticism was low... trying to keep it that way!

[tribefan40]

Since it would seem that you have W&M winning out (getting the auto-bid) I don't see how SFA would get the 5 seed over us. Same record, but W&M has WAY more quality wins. I agree with lefty that Liberty will bid insanely high for a playoff game but I doubt seriously they would host us. If we win out and are on the road game one, that would be a crime.xtwocentsx

All in all I like the brackets, should be a fantastic finish!

[soccerguy315]

if W&M wins out, they should definitely get a seed...

how can you put Delaware ahead of W&M when W&M just beat Delaware?
how can you drop W&M more for losing to UNC than you are dropping SFA for losing to an unranked team?

if you are listing W&M as the CAA autobid, you are listing W&M as 9-2 with wins over top 10 Delaware, top 10 Villanova, top 10 UNH... no other team would have those quality wins. Only FCS loss would be in Week 1.

just IMO, I enjoy your posts

[TexasTerror]

Change of heart...

W&M at the #5 seed... have Liberty at them, which makes sense since Liberty can't outbid...

UD is still #3 because they'll be ranked ahead of W&M - see UNC loss, even if FBS - think BCS rankings where later losses hurt. Better to lose early. Ask 'Bama...

[Squealofthepig]

if W&M wins out, they should definitely get a seed...

how can you put Delaware ahead of W&M when W&M just beat Delaware?

if you are listing W&M as the CAA autobid, you are listing W&M as 9-2 with wins over top 10 Delaware, top 10 Villanova, top 10 UNH... no other team would have those quality wins. Only FCS loss would be in Week 1.



Probably using something like the GPI, which has the following as of last week; insert standard rant on numbers and statistics flying in the face of perceived reality:

1. Appalachian State (2.125)
T2. Delaware (3.25)
T2. Stephen F. Austin (3.25)
4. Jacksonville State (3.625)
5. William & Mary (4.50)

[TheBisonator]

Hey TT, quick question: If NDSU ends up 7-4, what would be the least "bad" loss for consideration for an at-large?? I'm saying like, if there's at best a 25 percent chance of NDSU getting an at-large with one more loss, what game's loss gives us that best chance?? Just looking for your opinion.

BTW, I would bet that NDSU is holding Chatty's playoff position for now.

[umassfan]

Any CAA team with 4 or less losses will man the field. UMass will get in if we take care of business vs 2/3 from Maine, URI and Delaware.

[McNeese75]

The most recent playoff prognostications, courtesy of TT - barring a St. Francis upset over Cal Poly

And criticize me all you want, but it sure is fun to take a stab at this thing and I'd encourage you guys to try as well! xnodx

PREVIOUS PROGNOSTICATIONS
Memorial Day (http://anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?t=69543)
End of June (http://anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?69953-End-of-June-Playoff-Prognostications)
Start of August (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?70430-Start-of-August-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 1 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?73204-Week-1-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 2 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?73887-Week-2-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 3 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?74546-Week-3-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 4 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?75010-Week-4-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 5 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?75648-Week-5-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 6 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?76077-Week-6-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 7 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?76683-Week-7-Playoff-Prognostications)
Week 8 (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?77185-Week-8-Playoff-Prgonostications)

AUTOMATIC BIDS (10)

Big Sky: Eastern Washington
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: William & Mary
MEAC: Bethune Cookman
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Lehigh
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: Stephen F. Austin

AT-LARGE BIDS (10)
Big Sky: Montana State
Colonial: Delaware, Villanova, New Hampshire
Great West: Cal Poly
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: Western Illinois, North Dakota State
Ohio Valley: Southeast Missouri
Southern: Wofford

OPENING ROUND GAMES
Robert Morris @ South Carolina State
Lehigh @ New Hampshire
Cal Poly @ Montana State
Wofford @ Bethune Cookman

SECOND ROUND GAMES
So Carolina State/Robert Morris winner @ #1 Appalachian State
Western Illinois @ Villanova

Cal Poly/Montana State winner @ #4 Eastern Washington
Liberty @ #5 William & Mary

Wofford/Bethune Cookman winner @ #2 Jacksonville State
North Dakota State @ Stephen F. Austin

Lehigh/New Hampshire winner @ #3 Delaware
Southeast Missouri @ Northern Iowa

NOTES
Seeding - Again, William & Mary's loss coming later hurts them, even if they have head-to-head against Delaware and even if FBS. See BCS and how late losses hurt more.

Cal Poly - gets to the point where there are a lot of teams that you think are not getting seven wins. Cal Poly has the easiest stretch of games to make that possible.

New Hampshire - favorite for the last CAA spot. Only because win over UMass. Head-to-head goes to UNH. Don't think UNH or UMass have easier paths. UNH game at home vs Bill & Mary will tell us alot.

Chattanooga - Had to win 3 of 4 and obviously did not start the way they intended. They are out... for now.

Pioneer - Jacksonville may legitimately have a chance due to the limited number of teams to get to seven wins.

Northwestern State - Demons are the only team besides SFA that can play itself to a SLC title. If they were not going to SFA, I'd put it in their court as the AQ and SFA as the at-large from the SLC. Demons find ways to win.

Prairie View A&M - Coach speak obviously did not work well for Panthers, who are OUT.

xeyebrowx How do you figure that? If McNeese wins out and the Demons win out they share the championship with McNeese having the win over them. If SFA and McNeese win out then they will share the title and SFA will go.

[jstclmet]

AUTOMATIC BIDS (10)

Big Sky: Eastern Washington
Big South: Liberty
Colonial: William & Mary
MEAC: Bethune Cookman
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State
Patriot: Lehigh
SoCon: Appalachian State
Southland: Stephen F. Austin

AT-LARGE BIDS (10)
Big Sky: Montana State
Colonial: Delaware, Villanova, New Hampshire
Great West: Cal Poly
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: Western Illinois, North Dakota State
Ohio Valley: Southeast Missouri
Southern: Wofford

OPENING ROUND GAMES
Robert Morris @ South Carolina State
Lehigh @ New Hampshire
Cal Poly @ Montana State
Wofford @ Bethune Cookman

SECOND ROUND GAMES
So Carolina State/Robert Morris winner @ #1 Appalachian State
Western Illinois @ Villanova

Cal Poly/Montana State winner @ #4 Eastern Washington
Liberty @ #5 William & Mary

Wofford/Bethune Cookman winner @ #2 Jacksonville State
North Dakota State @ Stephen F. Austin

Lehigh/New Hampshire winner @ #3 Delaware
Southeast Missouri @ Northern Iowa

NOTES
Seeding - Again, William & Mary's loss coming later hurts them, even if they have head-to-head against Delaware and even if FBS. See BCS and how late losses hurt more.
Cal Poly - gets to the point where there are a lot of teams that you think are not getting seven wins. Cal Poly has the easiest stretch of games to make that possible.

New Hampshire - favorite for the last CAA spot. Only because win over UMass. Head-to-head goes to UNH. Don't think UNH or UMass have easier paths. UNH game at home vs Bill & Mary will tell us alot.

Chattanooga - Had to win 3 of 4 and obviously did not start the way they intended. They are out... for now.

Pioneer - Jacksonville may legitimately have a chance due to the limited number of teams to get to seven wins.

Northwestern State - Demons are the only team besides SFA that can play itself to a SLC title. If they were not going to SFA, I'd put it in their court as the AQ and SFA as the at-large from the SLC. Demons find ways to win.

Prairie View A&M - Coach speak obviously did not work well for Panthers, who are OUT.

A couple of quick observations;
1. If you drop W&M because of their FBS loss, and using the "Late Loss" theory (which I don't necessarily disagree with), don't you also have to drop ASU who will probably lose to UF??
Not sure how far you plan on dropping the Tribe, but if ASU loses on the very last weekend of the regular season, they could drop from #1 to #4.
Assuming J'ville St wins out, they will probably be your #1 seed come playoff time. Only SEMO St stands in their way.
Your #2 seed will probably be the CAA Champion. (Nova, W&M, or UD)

2. BC is currently 12th in the polls. If they finish in the top 12, they will probably not be playing in the opening round.

Just my 2 cents.

[UNI Pike]

If you swap Western Ill for NDSU, you will see the first 300 point game in FCS history vs SFA.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Getting some revenge against MSU at home would be so, so sweet. :D

[soccerguy315]

Probably using something like the GPI, which has the following as of last week; insert standard rant on numbers and statistics flying in the face of perceived reality:

1. Appalachian State (2.125)
T2. Delaware (3.25)
T2. Stephen F. Austin (3.25)
4. Jacksonville State (3.625)
5. William & Mary (4.50)

that's fair, IMO. But if you have W&M ranked higher than Delaware before this weekend, nothing happened this weekend that should make you change your mind. IMO Delaware and W&M are very equal, I'm just not ok with dropping W&M for playing UNC really close. Are you (in general, not specifically you) going to drop ASU when they lose to Florida?

[soccerguy315]

Change of heart...

W&M at the #5 seed... have Liberty at them, which makes sense since Liberty can't outbid...

UD is still #3 because they'll be ranked ahead of W&M - see UNC loss, even if FBS - think BCS rankings where later losses hurt. Better to lose early. Ask 'Bama...

Bama lost to like the #20 team... if W&M lost to the #20 FCS team, I would agree with your reasoning.

[emilimo701]

xcoolx


Western Illinois @ Liberty --|
at |---|
Appalachian State (1) --| |
|---|
Bethune-Cookman --| | |
at |---| |
Stephen F. Austin --| |
|---|
Montana State --| | |
at |---| | |
Villanova (5) --| | | |
|---| |
SE Missouri St @ Chattanooga --| | |
at |---| |
William & Mary (4) --| |
|
Robert Morris @ Lehigh --| |
at |---| |
Delaware (3) --| | |
|---| |
New Hampshire --| | | |
at |---| | |
Eastern Washignton --| | |
|---|
Wofford --| |
at |---| |
Northern Iowa --| | |
|---|
Massachusetts @ Montana --| |
at |---|
Jacksonville State (2) --|

First four out:
North Dakota State
South Carolina State
Cal Poly
Jacksonville

Next four out:
Furman
James Madison
Richmond
Weber State

What would you guys think?

[bluehenbillk]

Emil - looks good.

TT- you have possible Sweet 16 matchups of Montana St & EWU as well as UD & UNH. These matchups can't happen, you can't play a conference mate until the quarterfinals, you can correct me if I'm wrong...

[UNH Fanboi]

Emil - looks good.

TT- you have possible Sweet 16 matchups of Montana St & EWU as well as UD & UNH. These matchups can't happen, you can't play a conference mate until the quarterfinals, you can correct me if I'm wrong...

Not true anymore. Conference mates can play each other as long as it's not the first playoff game for both teams.

[WrenFGun]

I don't see why South Carolina State would be in the playoffs. They haven't beaten anyone .. and they may have 3 losses by the end of the season.

UMass is far more deserving than Cal Poly or SCST at this time, and I think look damn good to make the playoffs unless they slip vs. Maine or URI. No doubt in my mind that if a CAA gets to 7 wins they're easily in after what happened this weekend.

It will really put the 7 DI win threshold to the money if Montana gets knocked off by Montana State in the final week.

[JUDolphins]

I can't see Cal Poly getting in over JU in the playoffs because CP didn't go undefeated in the Great West. If they had done that, then I could see why.

I personally don't see SC State getting in. And the CAA at most gets 5 teams, but is a lock for 4.

SoCon took a major hit this weekend. Chatty has to win its final two games after the L to Auburn this week. GaSo is probably done - that leaves Furman as the SoCon best chance for a 3rd team.

All of this helps Jacksonville's chances.

[WrenFGun]

I can't see Cal Poly getting in over JU in the playoffs because CP didn't go undefeated in the Great West. If they had done that, then I could see why.

I personally don't see SC State getting in. And the CAA at most gets 5 teams, but is a lock for 4.

SoCon took a major hit this weekend. Chatty has to win its final two games after the L to Auburn this week. GaSo is probably done - that leaves Furman as the SoCon best chance for a 3rd team.

All of this helps Jacksonville's chances.

+1 on SCST. I'd rather see Dayton/Jacksonville winner than SCST in it. There's nothing about MEAC that screams at large to me..

[HensRock]

A couple of quick observations;
1. If you drop W&M because of their FBS loss, and using the "Late Loss" theory (which I don't necessarily disagree with), don't you also have to drop ASU who will probably lose to UF??
Not sure how far you plan on dropping the Tribe, but if ASU loses on the very last weekend of the regular season, they could drop from #1 to #4.
Assuming J'ville St wins out, they will probably be your #1 seed come playoff time. Only SEMO St stands in their way.
Your #2 seed will probably be the CAA Champion. (Nova, W&M, or UD)

2. BC is currently 12th in the polls. If they finish in the top 12, they will probably not be playing in the opening round.
Just my 2 cents.

I don't think W&M or Nova will be a top 2 seed unless ASU, UD, and JSU have total meltdowns. 3-5 are very possible, but the Top 2 will be reserved for { ASU, UD, JSU } ( and probably in that order if all 3 win out, or even if ASU loses to FLA )
The selection committee has their own secret formula for selecting the field and the seeds and seeding has more to do with attendance than anyone would like to admit.
So to spell it out, YES, I am saying that UD would be seeded higher than W&M if both won out - IMO.

[UNH Fanboi]

UMass is far more deserving than Cal Poly or SCST at this time, and I think look damn good to make the playoffs unless they slip vs. Maine or URI. No doubt in my mind that if a CAA gets to 7 wins they're easily in after what happened this weekend.


I wouldn't be shocked if UMass chokes against URI or Maine, but I agree that they are a near-lock if they get to 7 wins. The only scenario in which they might be in danger is if UNH also gets to 7 wins and W&M inexplicably tanks the rest of the season, thereby degrading the quality of that win.

[UNH Fanboi]

The selection committee has their own secret formula for selecting the field and the seeds and seeding has more to do with attendance than anyone would like to admit.
So to spell it out, YES, I am saying that UD would be seeded higher than W&M if both won out - IMO.

I agree that the precedent is there (UNI getting a seed over SIU in 2008 despite both having 1 conference loss and SIU beating UNI head to head), but it's not guaranteed.

[BlueHenSinfonian]

I don't think W&M or Nova will be a top 2 seed unless ASU, UD, and JSU have total meltdowns. 3-5 are very possible, but the Top 2 will be reserved for { ASU, UD, JSU } ( and probably in that order if all 3 win out, or even if ASU loses to FLA )
The selection committee has their own secret formula for selecting the field and the seeds and seeding has more to do with attendance than anyone would like to admit.
So to spell it out, YES, I am saying that UD would be seeded higher than W&M if both won out - IMO.

If both UD and W&M win out UD should be seeded higher because UD will only have 1 loss vs W&M's 2, and W&M's loss to UMass is worse than UD's to W&M.

[ToTheLeft]

Even with your modified scenario...

1. I don't think we get a first round bye
2. We're a bus trip from Nova, Lehigh, SCSU, Wofford. I think with the money we'd offer, we'd get a home game somehow. I know we're just a Big South school and it's cool to ship us to a CAA, but I don't see that happening. The NCAA is about money, and we'd offer that.

[WrenFGun]

If both UD and W&M win out UD should be seeded higher because UD will only have 1 loss vs W&M's 2, and W&M's loss to UMass is worse than UD's to W&M.

There's no reason Delaware should be ranked above W&M, seed or otherwise. W&M beat them and thus if they are both top finishers in the CAA W&M should be higher. Your logic doesn't make a ton of sense to me.

[Gil Dobie]

xcoolx

What would you guys think?

Western Illinois plays UNI, if they lose, their best record is 7-4, 7-3 in FCS.
If they finish 8-3, they are MVFC champs, autobid etc.
NDSU wins out, they are 8-3, UNI could be 7-4 which all 3 teams could go.

[Edge316007]

A couple of quick observations;
1. If you drop W&M because of their FBS loss, and using the "Late Loss" theory (which I don't necessarily disagree with), don't you also have to drop ASU who will probably lose to UF??
Not sure how far you plan on dropping the Tribe, but if ASU loses on the very last weekend of the regular season, they could drop from #1 to #4.
Assuming J'ville St wins out, they will probably be your #1 seed come playoff time. Only SEMO St stands in their way.
Your #2 seed will probably be the CAA Champion. (Nova, W&M, or UD)


What? No. I disagree with pretty much all of this. If App loses only to Florida, regardless of the fashion, they'd still be undefeated in the FCS with potentially a top 5 win under their belts in Wofford. They're still a top 2 seed and possibly still the #1 depending on how JVille State does.

William and Mary still has the FCS loss so it's not comparable.

[Cocky]

Not real sure FL will beat App.

[Cat95]

One quick correction. Montana State holds the tie breaker
So they get the auto bid not Eastern Washington.

[IaaScribe]

Does anybody know what the tiebreaker is in the MEAC in the case of a three-way tie?

I could very easily see a scenario where FAMU beats Bethune-Cookman at the end of the year to forge a 3-way tie at 7-1 with S.C. State. Who would get the auto bid in that scenario considering that each would have lost to each other (FAMU to SCSU; SCSU to BC; BC to FAMU)?

EDIT:

Found the answer in the MEAC release. For anyone interested:

TIE-BREAKER SYSTEM
Two-Team or Multiple-Team Tie – If the tied teams
played each other, head-to-head competition will be
used to determine the representative. For multiple
ties, head-to-head record vs. all teams tied.
If a tie still exits then the following shall be
used:
A) Count six (6) points for a win against a
Division I-A team;
B) Count four (4) points for a non-conference
Division I-AA win;
C) Count one (1) point for a win against a
Division II team, OR, subtract a point for a
loss against a Division II team;
D) Coin Toss
The team with the highest point total shall be the
Automatic Qualifier for the NCAA Playoffs or the
specified Bowl game, whichever is applicable.

ANOTHER EDIT:

Bethune-Cookman would win the auto-bid in the three-way tie scenario because it would have two non-conference wins against FCS (Savannah State, N.C. Central) and a win against a DII (Edward Waters) for nine total points.

South Carolina State would be second with five points (four for beating MVSU, one for beating Benedict).

Florida A&M would be third with four (win against Savannah State).

[Gil Dobie]

The MVFC still has 4 teams that can win the Conference
UNI needs to win all 3 to go 7-1, Indy, MSU, WIU
WIU needs to win last 2 to go 6-2, SIU, UNI
MSU needs to win all 3 to go 6-2, SDSU, UNI, NDSU
Indy needs to win all 3 to go 6-2, UNI, YSU, SIU

NDSU needs to win all 3, they go 5-3, 8-3 and possible at-large, SIU, SDSU, MSU

[TexasTerror]

Bethune-Cookman would win the auto-bid in the three-way tie scenario because it would have two non-conference wins against FCS (Savannah State, N.C. Central) and a win against a DII (Edward Waters) for nine total points.

Edward Waters is an NAIA school and barely one at that - they trailed a club football team and should have lost, if not for some last minute assistance from the officiating crew. Either way, Bethune Cookman does have two OOC wins against FCS.

[danefan]

No real gripe with the team but I think the opening round matchups will be different because of regionalization/travel expenses and because if UNH goes 2-1 in their last 3 games (which they'll need to get in anyway) I don't think they'll be playing in the opening round:

OPENING ROUND GAMES
Robert Morris @ Lehigh (Bus trip)
Cal Poly @ Montana State
Bethune Cookman @ South Carolina State (Bus trip)
Wofford @ Liberty (Bus Trip)

That's 3 bus trips in the opening round and a short flight for CP @ Montana State. That's the NCAA's dream. Add to that the possibility that Jacksonville could easily replace a CAA team that slips up (UNH for example) and you'd have Wofford getting a bye and SCST playing at Liberty with Jacksonville going to BCU instead.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

xcoolx


Western Illinois @ Liberty --|
at |---|
Appalachian State (1) --| |
|---|
Bethune-Cookman --| | |
at |---| |
Stephen F. Austin --| |
|---|
Montana State --| | |
at |---| | |
Villanova (5) --| | | |
|---| |
SE Missouri St @ Chattanooga --| | |
at |---| |
William & Mary (4) --| |
|
Robert Morris @ Lehigh --| |
at |---| |
Delaware (3) --| | |
|---| |
New Hampshire --| | | |
at |---| | |
Eastern Washignton --| | |
|---|
Wofford --| |
at |---| |
Northern Iowa --| | |
|---|
Massachusetts @ Montana --| |
at |---|
Jacksonville State (2) --|

First four out:
North Dakota State
South Carolina State
Cal Poly
Jacksonville

Next four out:
Furman
James Madison
Richmond
Weber State

What would you guys think?

I think you're smoking crack if you think the CAA is getting 3 seeds. xlolx A 9-2 EWU or MSU will get a seed over a 9-2 or 8-3 third team from the CAA.

[Fear the Bird]

No real gripe with the team but I think the opening round matchups will be different because of regionalization/travel expenses and because if UNH goes 2-1 in their last 3 games (which they'll need to get in anyway) I don't think they'll be playing in the opening round:

OPENING ROUND GAMES
Robert Morris @ Lehigh (Bus trip)
Cal Poly @ Montana State
Bethune Cookman @ South Carolina State (Bus trip)
Wofford @ Liberty (Bus Trip)

That's 3 bus trips in the opening round and a short flight for CP @ Montana State. That's the NCAA's dream. Add to that the possibility that Jacksonville could easily replace a CAA team that slips up (UNH for example) and you'd have Wofford getting a bye and SCST playing at Liberty with Jacksonville going to BCU instead.

They won't have a conference matchup in the first round

[UNHWildCats]

+1 on SCST. I'd rather see Dayton/Jacksonville winner than SCST in it. There's nothing about MEAC that screams at large to me..
Dayton and Jacksonville dont play this year

[appfan2008]

anybody but sc st uh gin!

[danefan]

They won't have a conference matchup in the first round

You're right.

That means you would probably see BCU @ Wofford and SCST @ Liberty.

Adds a flight, but a really short one.

[IaaScribe]

Edward Waters is an NAIA school and barely one at that - they trailed a club football team and should have lost, if not for some last minute assistance from the officiating crew. Either way, Bethune Cookman does have two OOC wins against FCS.

Brain fart on my part. Really doesn't change the outcome of the tiebreaker. FAMU and SCSU's decision to play money games haunts them in that scenario.

[jlandrus23]

What are Indiana State's chances if they happen to lose to UNI?

[FargoBison]

What are Indiana State's chances if they happen to lose to UNI?

Indiana State needs to win out and then a lot of help. The Trees only chance is to win the MVFC since they won't have 7 DI wins. 2 non-DI games is just an absolute killer when it comes to trying to get an at-large.

[emilimo701]

I think you're smoking crack if you think the CAA is getting 3 seeds. xlolx A 9-2 EWU or MSU will get a seed over a 9-2 or 8-3 third team from the CAA.

I agree that this probably won't happen. Perfect storm, and it's definitely possible. But if one of those teams has a bad game, EWU (#6 on my list as i did it) inherits a seed.

[jstclmet]

Ok, so with a little adjusting, if the playoffs were to start this weekend, my crystal ball has it looking like this;

1st round:
UMass vs. Lehigh
WIU vs. RMU
SC St. vs UNI
BC vs. Montana

2nd round:
#1 ASU vs SC St/UNI winner
SE MO St. vs Montana St.

#5 W&M vs Wofford
#4 UD vs UMass/Lehigh winner

#3 Nova vs WIU/RMU winner
EWU vs. SFA

UNH vs Liberty
#2 J'ville St vs. BC/Montana winner

[tribefan40]

Ok, so with a little adjusting, if the playoffs were to start this weekend, my crystal ball has it looking like this;

1st round:
UMass vs. Lehigh
WIU vs. RMU
SC St. vs UNI
BC vs. Montana

2nd round:
#1 ASU vs SC St/UNI winner
SE MO St. vs Montana St.

#5 W&M vs Wofford
#4 UD vs UMass/Lehigh winner

#3 Nova vs WIU/RMU winner
EWU vs. SFA

UNH vs Liberty
#2 J'ville St vs. BC/Montana winner

You really think Nova and UD would be ahead of W&M in seeding? We have the same record as Nova with the head to head. I might be able to see UD with only one loss being ahead, but sorry, not Nova. xeyebrowx

[tribefan40]

I think you're smoking crack if you think the CAA is getting 3 seeds. xlolx A 9-2 EWU or MSU will get a seed over a 9-2 or 8-3 third team from the CAA.

Certainly not probable but imagine this scenario: App and J'ville St. win out. (sans FLA) Top two seeds. You could then have a log jam at 9-2 including Nova, UD (with a loss to Nova), W&M, EWU, Wofford, SEMO, MSU and Stephen F. Austin. The most impressive resumes in that group belong to W&M, Nova, Wofford and UD/EWU/MSU, in that order. I think W&M and Nova definitely get seeds in that scenario. I think with a close loss to APP you could make a stronger argument for Wofford getting a seed than almost anyone else remaining. I know the autobids will weigh heavily, in which case the Big Sky AQ would probably be seeded. All that said, out of the log jam mentioned above I think W&M would be 3, Nova would be 4, and the 5 seed would be a major tossup, possibly going to UD.

[BlueHenSinfonian]

Certainly not probable but imagine this scenario: App and J'ville St. win out. (sans FLA) Top two seeds. You could then have a log jam at 9-2 including Nova, UD (with a loss to Nova), W&M, EWU, Wofford, SEMO, MSU and Stephen F. Austin. The most impressive resumes in that group belong to W&M, Nova, Wofford and UD/EWU/MSU, in that order. I think W&M and Nova definitely get seeds in that scenario. I think with a close loss to APP you could make a stronger argument for Wofford getting a seed than almost anyone else remaining. I know the autobids will weigh heavily, in which case the Big Sky AQ would probably be seeded. All that said, out of the log jam mentioned above I think W&M would be 3, Nova would be 4, and the 5 seed would be a major tossup, possibly going to UD.

While I don't think anyone is expecting Appy to beat Florida, since it's the last game of the season, I don't see a #2 spot if they lose that game. I'm guessing they still get a seed, I just don't know which one.

[Edge316007]

While I don't think anyone is expecting Appy to beat Florida, since it's the last game of the season, I don't see a #2 spot if they lose that game. I'm guessing they still get a seed, I just don't know which one.

Of course not, you're a Delaware fan. I mean, it's just stupid to give a team the #2 seed who's undefeated in the FCS and in a "BCS" conference with a top 7 win.

[jlcharles]

While I don't think anyone is expecting Appy to beat Florida, since it's the last game of the season, I don't see a #2 spot if they lose that game. I'm guessing they still get a seed, I just don't know which one.

You should really just stop with the nonsense. App St. gets a top 2 seed with one loss on their record to Florida.

[BlueHenSinfonian]

You should really just stop with the nonsense. App St. gets a top 2 seed with one loss on their record to Florida.

If the App/Florida game were this week, I'd agree completely, they'd have a couple weeks to bounce back up. I think it's possible that App could be penalized more than one spot though for a loss in the last game of the season with no chance to prove themselves back afterwards, especially if any key players get hurt in the game as happened with W&M vs. UNC. It really doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things, a 2nd place seed is no better than a 3rd or 4th place seed at the end of the day once the playoffs start.

[leatherneck177]

What are Indiana State's chances if they happen to lose to UNI?

I'd say zero, right now they probably need to win the conference. How many DI wins can you end up with?

[Horseshoe App]

If the App/Florida game were this week, I'd agree completely, they'd have a couple weeks to bounce back up. I think it's possible that App could be penalized more than one spot though for a loss in the last game of the season with no chance to prove themselves back afterwards, especially if any key players get hurt in the game as happened with W&M vs. UNC. It really doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things, a 2nd place seed is no better than a 3rd or 4th place seed at the end of the day once the playoffs start.

I think you are mistaken on this one. If we are 10-1 with a decent performance against Florida, we will get a top 2 seed. And the top 2 seeds do matter. You get to be at home thru the entire playoffs. We were 8-3 in 2005 with losses to 2 FBS teams and were seated #2. So, I really do not see us getting ousted with a loss to Florida.

[Edge316007]

If the App/Florida game were this week, I'd agree completely, they'd have a couple weeks to bounce back up. I think it's possible that App could be penalized more than one spot though for a loss in the last game of the season with no chance to prove themselves back afterwards, especially if any key players get hurt in the game as happened with W&M vs. UNC. It really doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things, a 2nd place seed is no better than a 3rd or 4th place seed at the end of the day once the playoffs start.

Your last line is laughably misinformed. The bit about injuries is laughably irrelevant.

It's possible, but highly unlikely and quite stupid to think a 10-1 Appalachian team who sweeps the FCS while defeating a top 7 Wofford team would not be a top 2 seed.

[MSUBear42]

I think the only way the MVFC gets two teams in is if UNI goes 2-1 in their remaining three and either YSU or MO State win out.

[HensRock]

Pay no attention to Sinfonian. I think he's a bit green at this.
App State is still a media darling and has very high attendance.
If they beat GSU and WC in the next 2 weeks, THEY ARE A STONE-COLD SOLID LOCK for a Top 2 seed.

I also agree with Tribefan40 above. W&M would be seeded higher than Nova if the playoffs started today.

[unigriff]

I think the only way the MVFC gets two teams in is if UNI goes 2-1 in their remaining three and either YSU or MO State win out.

YSU has 0% chance to make the playoffs.
Its UNI, WIU, MSU, and cough, Indiana State.
Indiana State can be eliminated from the autobid with a loss this weekend to UNI as even if UNI were to lose their last 2 and ISU to win..UNI would have the tiebreaker.

WIU and MSU are the Panthers final two opponents and a win against MSU next week clinches at least a share of the conference title going into WIU for the season finale, a possible Auto-bid conference title game.

SDSU has been eliminated from the auto-bid...an outsider looking in is SIU. If they won out and UNI loses 2 of 3...SIU could snatch the title because they beat UNI. However, a lot of things have to happen with other teams as well.

WIU has a tough game this weekend @ SIU before hosting the Cats after a bye week. if WIU can beat SIU, look for the autobid to come out of Macomb with a purple and gold team (UNI/WIU).

MSU has to go SDSU and UNI before hosting NDSU in the season finale. I can't see MSU winning 2 outta those 3...maybe not even one.

Everything is shaping up for a UNI/WIU clash on Nov. 20th. a 7-3 UNI vs. 7-3 WIU going into that game could possibly put both through to the playoffs no matter who wins.

[jlcharles]

If the App/Florida game were this week, I'd agree completely, they'd have a couple weeks to bounce back up. I think it's possible that App could be penalized more than one spot though for a loss in the last game of the season with no chance to prove themselves back afterwards, especially if any key players get hurt in the game as happened with W&M vs. UNC. It really doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things, a 2nd place seed is no better than a 3rd or 4th place seed at the end of the day once the playoffs start.

Is this a joke? A top 2 seed gives you home field until the National Championship game.

[heath]

Assuming Liberty makes the playoffs,they could be one of those teams you just don't want to play.Especially if they get to host the 1st round at Williams Stadium.A great 2nd round match-up would be W&M hosting Liberty. Can only hope since a short drive.

[emilimo701]

I'd say zero, right now they probably need to win the conference. How many DI wins can you end up with?

they 100% would need to win the conference, which would mean winning out and the Leathernecks dropping a game.

[TheBisonator]

YSU has 0% chance to make the playoffs.
Its UNI, WIU, MSU, and cough, Indiana State.


NDSU is 5-3 and still in playoff contention.

Geez, why are people not even mentioning NDSU when talking about eligible teams?? This is the second post today. Did NDSU just lose two games in a row while I was asleep, or something??