2010 FCS teams added to simulation

[ebemiss]

I've just added 2010 FCS teams to the simulation I'm working on. Here's a sample game (hit play again for a different result each time)

http://nationalsportsrankings.com/joomla/index.php?option=com_oneonone&magic=2121

All teams are ranked based on wins/losses, strength of schedule, margin of victory, etc... If you'd like an "actual" prediction for a game use the 25 game match up feature.

I've just added offensive player names/stats for all the teams as well.

I thought some may be interested.

I can also set up a tournament format with its own custom link if anyone would like. Format is for 4,8,16,32,and 64 team tournaments.

here's a scores only tournament for fbs last year i set up. I can do the same for fcs teams. create the seeds 1-16 and I can set up the tournament or post a link to a current projection and I'll create that one.

http://nationalsportsrankings.com/joomla/index.php?option=com_tournament&magic=304

[ebemiss]

Team Rankings are now updated through 10/30 games.

[AlphaSigMD]

It amusingly predicts Bo Jackson Tecmo Bowl-esque numbers for ASU over Georgia Southern. 780 Yards of total offense, DP with 3 passing and 4 rushing TD's.

I'd say that's a bit optimistic for a game at Paulson.

[ebemiss]

Did you try multiple games or are you just using 1 game to judge it? I tell everyone to play a bunch of games before judging the simulation as widely inaccurate.

Using the 25 game match up will give you an "honest" prediction of an upcoming game. Playing the head to head with player stats should be judged the same, by playing multiple games.

If you still think, based on actual results, the teams are inaccurate I'll adjust them. Thanks for checking it out.

[Appattk]

Did you try multiple games or are you just using 1 game to judge it? I tell everyone to play a bunch of games before judging the simulation as widely inaccurate.

Using the 25 game match up will give you an "honest" prediction of an upcoming game. Playing the head to head with player stats should be judged the same, by playing multiple games.

If you still think, based on actual results, the teams are inaccurate I'll adjust them. Thanks for checking it out.

I will say that this is a blast... While offensive numbers do seem a little high, it's interesting to see how my current playoff brackets do in the simulation... Keep it up!

[Appattk]

Lining up my bracket projections

Lehigh/Liberty @ #1 ASU
Montana St @ UNI

NDSU/Cal Poly @ #4 Delaware
WIU @ #5 EWU

Robert Morris/Villanova @ #3 William & Mary
UNH @ SE Mo St

SCSU/Wofford @ #2 Jacksonville St
Bethune Cookman @ SF Austin

I got the following out of 25 tries

Villanova 6
William & Mary 6
Delaware 4
ASU 2
Wofford 2
UNI 2
Liberty 1
EWU 1
SF Austin 1

Interesting......................

[ebemiss]

I'll check on the higher offensive numbers. Did you use the tournament mode to set up your bracket? if not list your seeds 1-16 and I'll set up a link for the projected tournament.

I can set them up with scores only or with player stats. let me know

[Appattk]

Are the calculations random? Or does specific defensive stats work against offensive stats and vise versa? Being a stats geek this is very interesting

[ebemiss]

Calculations are based on actual team stats. There is also a random component throw in the mix to help generate a different result each time. Just as if the two teams played multiple games.

It's still a work in progress, but at least it gives users a chance to compare. Even if it's not 100% accurate.

For the most part I'm really comfortable with the overall team rankings, and the actual predictions or games (using 25 game match up). Getting the "actual" player and team stats to represent every team has been challenging.

[Appattk]

Is there a home-field advantage quotient built into it?

[ebemiss]

slight. I'll have to double check but I believe somewhere around 3 points.

[ebemiss]

Team ratings are updated after games played through 11/06

[ebemiss]

I've just created a 16 team simulation tournament for a projected fcs playoff which I found here

http://fcsnowfootball.wordpress.com/

Here is a scores only tourney. Hit play again for a different result each time.

http://nationalsportsrankings.com/joomla/index.php?option=com_tournament&magic=100

Here is a tourney with box scores/and player stats. (it takes a few seconds to load but it's fun to look at). Hit play again for a different result each time

http://nationalsportsrankings.com/joomla/index.php?option=com_tournament&magic=101

thought some may be interested

[darell1976]

It predicted Montana will beat North Dakota 30-17...I hope it ends that closely.

[Squealofthepig]

First, absolutely love this, and thanks for the time to do this!

Do think some of the offensive numbers are a bit wacky; I'll hit random here one more time and report the total yards of offense for each game:

194/242
456/609
396/341
349/293
306/295
511/646
368/355
476/515

Some of those look quite plausible; a few, however, go wacky (and running a few more, I found this one after a few more attempts: 601/622). Not sure how you're doing the randomness, but think adding in more probabilities for busted plays should be done, as the first downs are also large, leading me to think high defensive games are modeled well, but teams with poor defense or a propensity to turn the ball over turn into even more of a wet paper sack in the sim.

[ebemiss]

I'll look into it. I may have to make an adjustment as it does seem that sometimes the total yds are high as well as first downs.

It may take me a week or so to get this corrected as It's not an easy fix adjusting my simulation. I appreciate the feedback and once I get a chance to get the "adjusted" version online I'll let you know.

for now enjoy the sim as it currently is. I do appreciate the feedback. You guys know these teams better than I do as you follow them on a day to day basis. Any help to make this even better is great. thanks

[ebemiss]

Overall team ratings are updated after last week's games.

[Appfan_in_CAAland]

This a really fun site. I just got a game - Florida 28 App State 24 - I'd rather win, but I'll take it.

[lehidude]

Lehigh(2010) wins 25 of 25 matchups against Lafayette(2010)

Projected Score: Lehigh 31 Lafayette 17

Margin of Victory: 14 Points

Game Lehigh(2010) Lafayette(2010)
1 24 11
2 36 20
3 36 11
4 31 10
5 43 26
6 19 11
7 36 21
8 21 7
9 29 17
10 33 20
11 26 17
12 37 25
13 49 31
14 32 24
15 34 31
16 20 8
17 29 20
18 24 16
19 32 29
20 25 14
21 28 9
22 43 13
23 28 3
24 32 27
25 31 14




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[PantherRob82]

Northern Iowa(2010) wins 25 of 25 matchups against Dayton(2010)


Projected Score: Northern Iowa 37 Dayton 13



Margin of Victory: 24 Points

[PantherRob82]

Northern Iowa(2010) wins 25 of 25 matchups against Jacksonville(2010)


Projected Score: Northern Iowa 36 Jacksonville 18



Margin of Victory: 18 Points

[PantherRob82]

Delaware(2010) wins 16 of 25 matchups against Northern Iowa(2010)


Projected Score: Delaware 21 Northern Iowa 17



Margin of Victory: 4 Points

[PantherRob82]

Northern Iowa(2010) wins 13 of 25 matchups against Western Ill.(2010)


Projected Score: Northern Iowa 22 Western Ill. 23



Margin of Victory: -1 Points

[Mattymc727]

at UNI, UNH wins 17 out of 26 matchups, while UNH wins 22 of 25 matchups at home.....Too bad this simulation means absolutely nothing

[ebemiss]

Teams are updated after the first round of the playoffs

[ebemiss]

I've updated teams after last week's games. I've also tweaked the sim based on feedback that yardage stats and first downs were too high for most games. They seem to be better and I can still adjust the pass/run ratio if a team looks like it's still inaccurate. Try a few head to head games, let me know.

The predictions swept 4-0 last week and stand at 13-3 for the playoffs. Here are this week's projections. I've listed all the predictions here (http://www.championshipsubdivision.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=19415&p=415496#p415496) for the playoffs so you know I'm not full of it.

Location Predicted Line
at Eastern Wash. Villanova 33.0 Eastern Wash. 23.0 -10.0
Neutral Villanova 35.0 Eastern Wash. 22.0 -13.0
at Villanova Villanova 36.0 Eastern Wash. 20.0 -16.0

Location Predicted Line
at Delaware Delaware 24.0 Georgia Southern 20.0 -4.0
Neutral Delaware 23.0 Georgia Southern 21.0 -2.0
at Georgia Southern Georgia Southern 23.0 Delaware 21.0 -2.0

[ebemiss]

Just added a 16 team FBS tournament using the final BCS rankings. 1-16, 2-15, 3-14, etc...

Scores only

http://nationalsportsrankings.com/joomla/index.php?option=com_tournament&magic=8004

box score and player stats

http://nationalsportsrankings.com/joomla/index.php?option=com_tournament&magic=8005

[DaltonLegalEagle]

I've just created a 16 team simulation tournament for a projected fcs playoff which I found here

http://fcsnowfootball.wordpress.com/

Here is a scores only tourney. Hit play again for a different result each time.


http://nationalsportsrankings.com/joomla/index.php?option=com_tournament&magic=100

Here is a tourney with box scores/and player stats. (it takes a few seconds to load but it's fun to look at). Hit play again for a different result each time

http://nationalsportsrankings.com/joomla/index.php?option=com_tournament&magic=101

thought some may be interested

This is absolutely fascinating, particularly since different variations of it have William & Mary, Wofford and even South Carolina St. winning the NC, with no sight of Ga. Southern in the bracket. I suppose the creator of it ASSUMEd a different first round result. Well, you know what happens when you ASSUME something.

I know that on paper, every one of these teams is/was better than Ga. Southern, including the remaining potential opponents. I'm just thankful that we don't play it "on paper," at least not in FCS. That's why I could care less about who wins the BCS bs. We'll never know who could run the table and win 4 or now 5 games at the end of a season as long as the BCS bsers continue to control things.

[JU_Dolphin]

This is a great sim, good work! Just for fun I took the dolphins through the big south to see how we would fare. Sim had us beating Citadel, VMI, Presbyterian, and CSU, but losing to Liberty, Coastal, and Stony Brook. Not bad.

[ebemiss]

Ju_Dolphin, Here's a sim for you using my season format. I set up an 11 game season 7 against the big south, and 4 top teams from the Pioneer. I got 8-3, and 9-2 the 2 times I ran it.

http://nationalsportsrankings.com/joomla/index.php?option=com_dreamseason&magic=8010

The simulation runs through the whole season in 1 click and you can get the box scores for each game. You can also advance to a playoff format that you control, choosing 3-6 games and opponents. Lose and you're done, win and keep playing.

If you just want to play the season over and over hit refresh on the link above once it loads and it will run the season again. Thanks for the feedback and I thought you may like this format.

[ebemiss]

I've just added 2011 FBS teams. Here's a sample game

http://www.nationalsportsrankings.com/index.php?option=com_oneonone&magic=3995

If someone has a link to FCS returning starters I can adjust last year's teams and add them as well. Then start to add player names.

[ebemiss]

Thanks to a poster on another site, I have updated returning starters for FCS teams and I've added them.

Here's a sample game

http://www.nationalsportsrankings.com/index.php?option=com_oneonone&magic=3996

I've also changed my 25 game match up to a 100 game match up. That will allow users to see more results and hopefully give a more accurate account of each team. (once the season starts and I can actual have some sort of game data to adjust the teams).

To use this feature just click the check box below the next button before you play the game.

[chattownmocs]

not buying. It just told me that Georgia Southern would beat chattanooga 98 out of 100 times. Absurd

[StorminASU]

Yeah, not like I'm against these odds, but it just said GSU would only beat ASU 15 out of 100 times. I'm guessing it's a little higher than that. However, it did say we would beat Chatt 82 times out of 100. That's a little on the low side, but maybe fathomable if we quit playing football xsmiley_wix

[chattownmocs]

What Ive learned.

Nebraska Beats Chattanooga 100 out of 100 times. Average score 39-10
Chattanooga beat Jacksonville St 90 out of 100 times. Average score 32-19
Chattanooga wins at Eastern Kentucky 68 out of 100 times. Average score 24-19
Appalachian State beats Chattanooga 77 out of 100 times. Average score 32-24
Chattanooga beats Citadel 95 out of 100 times. Average score 30-15
Georgia Southern beats Chattanooga 98 out of 100 Times. Average score 34-19
Chattanooga wins 100 out of 100 matchups against Western Carolina. Average score 32-13
Elon beats Chattanooga 61 out of 100 times. Average score 26-23
Chattanooga defeats Furman 76 out of 100 times. Average score 31-24
Chattanooga defeats samford at Samford 87 out of 100 times. Average score 27-15
Wofford wins 55 out of 100 at Chattanooga. Average margin of 28-27 Chattanooga

Alot seems pretty acurate. A couple matchups seem down right ridiculous.

[LeadBolt]

What I've learned, W&M beating UVA @ UVA is more likely than beating Villanova or Delaware at their places this year. The most likely start is 3-3.

[1andDone]

No South Alabama :(
Anyway great simulator I went to the HS BBALL section, and re-simmed the the state championship game we lost in , and clobbered the other team

[SFA 93]

2011 Season

W: SFA: MCMURRY: (no result but I hope SFA can beat a DIV II team)
W: SFA:27; UNI:24 (17 wins out of 25 tries)
L: BAYLOR:38; SFA:20 (0 wins out of 25 tries)
W: SFA:43; TEXAS STATE:19 (25 wins out of 25 tries)
W: SFA:27; CENTRAL ARKANSAS:21 (21 wins out of 25 tries)
W: SFA:27; SAM HOUSTON STATE:25 (16 wins out of 25 tries) <Sam as the home team>
W: SFA:35; NICHOLLS STATE:19 (25 wins out of 25 tries)
W: SFA:15; MCNEESE STATE:9 (23 wins out of 25 tries)
W: SFA:37; LAMAR:18 (25 wins out of 25 tries)
W: SFA:45; SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA:16 (25 wins out of 25 tries)
W: SFA:37; NORTHWESTERN STATE:18 (23 wins out of 25 tries)

So SFA goes 10-1 for the regular season? :)

Other results with possible playoff teams...

L: EASTERN WASHINGTON:32; SFA:28 (14 loses out of 25 tries)
L: VILLANOVA:33; SFA:26 (18 loses out of 25 tries)
L: APPALACHIAN STATE:33; SFA:30 (12 loses out of 25 tries)
W: SFA:29; RICHMOND:20 (18 wins out of 25 tries)
W: SFA:33; MONTANA:23 (21 wins out of 25 tries)

[ebemiss]

No South Alabama :(
Anyway great simulator I went to the HS BBALL section, and re-simmed the the state championship game we lost in , and clobbered the other team

my bad. 2010 and 2011 South Alabama teams are now online.

[ebemiss]

2011 Season

W: SFA: MCMURRY: (no result but I hope SFA can beat a DIV II team)
W: SFA:27; UNI:24 (17 wins out of 25 tries)
L: BAYLOR:38; SFA:20 (0 wins out of 25 tries)
W: SFA:43; TEXAS STATE:19 (25 wins out of 25 tries)
W: SFA:27; CENTRAL ARKANSAS:21 (21 wins out of 25 tries)
W: SFA:27; SAM HOUSTON STATE:25 (16 wins out of 25 tries) <Sam as the home team>
W: SFA:35; NICHOLLS STATE:19 (25 wins out of 25 tries)
W: SFA:15; MCNEESE STATE:9 (23 wins out of 25 tries)
W: SFA:37; LAMAR:18 (25 wins out of 25 tries)
W: SFA:45; SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA:16 (25 wins out of 25 tries)
W: SFA:37; NORTHWESTERN STATE:18 (23 wins out of 25 tries)

So SFA goes 10-1 for the regular season? :)

Other results with possible playoff teams...

L: EASTERN WASHINGTON:32; SFA:28 (14 loses out of 25 tries)
L: VILLANOVA:33; SFA:26 (18 loses out of 25 tries)
L: APPALACHIAN STATE:33; SFA:30 (12 loses out of 25 tries)
W: SFA:29; RICHMOND:20 (18 wins out of 25 tries)
W: SFA:33; MONTANA:23 (21 wins out of 25 tries)

SFA93, ran your schedule through the season replay. Here's the custom link

http://www.nationalsportsrankings.com/index.php?option=com_dreamseason&magic=5556

to run it over and over, just hit refresh on our browser after the initial page loads. It take a few seconds to load the first time but loads instantly after that. (by hitting refresh). I got anywhere from 8-3 to 10-1. Plus I just had to create a generic division 2 team, as I don't have them available to play head to head.

[darell1976]

2011 season for North Dakota using 100 games:

W vs Drake 22-19 winning 63 out of 100
L @ Idaho 41-18 losing 100 out of 100
L @ Fresno St 43-15 losing 100 out of 100
W vs Black Hills State (NAIA team)
L @ Southern Utah 35-15 losing 100 out of 100
W vs Montana Western (NAIA)
L vs Cal Poly 27-20 losing 72 out of 100
W @ Northern Colorado 22-21 winning 55 out of 100
W vs Sioux Falls (NAIA/DII)
L @ UC Davis 26-17 losing 84 out of 100
L vs South Dakota 26-21 losing 65 out of 100

5-6 with 3 wins vs NAIA teams I hope UND proves this simulator wrong

[1andDone]

W vs West Alabama 42-10 100/100
W vs Lamar 36-19 95/100
L vs NC State 48-13 100/100
L vs Kent State 28-16 91/100
W vs UTSA 38-11 100/100
W vs Tenn-Martin 27-22 68/100
W vs Ga St 27-23 72/100
W vs Henderson State 43-10 100/100
W vs Miss Valley State 44-9 100/100
? vs Cal Poly 25-25 55/100

[darell1976]

W vs West Alabama 42-10 100/100
W vs Lamar 36-19 95/100
L vs NC State 48-13 100/100
L vs Kent State 28-16 91/100
W vs UTSA 38-11 100/100
W vs Tenn-Martin 27-22 68/100
W vs Ga St 27-23 72/100
W vs Henderson State 43-10 100/100
W vs Miss Valley State 44-9 100/100
? vs Cal Poly 25-25 55/100

Just do this game over again and you should get a different result. It had UND and Northern Colorado tie 21-21 so I just refreshed and UND won by 1.