GPI Release, 10/27/2010

[Lehigh Football Nation]

http://www.collegesportingnews.com/content.php?297-GPI-10-27-2010-Appalachian-State-Reclaims-Top-Spot


CHICAGO — The Gridiron Power Index (GPI), the index ranking for the NCAA Division I FCS and a top indicator of at-large playoff selection released its index after the action of Week 8 of the 2010 season. Delaware's late missed field goal last Saturday did more than give them their first conference loss of the season: it also made Appalachian State leapfrog the Hens to take over the No. 1 spot from Delaware.

Looks like the computers still put Delaware in their top 3, but all the human polls dropped the Blue Hens to sixth - which allowed App State to leapfrog Delaware. xchinscratchx

[theasushow]

http://www.collegesportingnews.com/content.php?297-GPI-10-27-2010-Appalachian-State-Reclaims-Top-Spot



Looks like the computers still put Delaware in their top 3, but all the human polls dropped the Blue Hens to sixth - which allowed App State to leapfrog Delaware. xchinscratchx

that is typically what happens when the top team loses...see Alabama, Ohio State or Oklahoma of the BCS for further explanation.

[danefan]

I ask this every week, but no one responds - out of curiosity - can CSN release the modified GPI that would have been used by the NCAA to determine the Bridge AQ qualification? Curious to see where Jacksonville and Dayton fall and if they would have had a chance at the computer portion of the bridge.

[MacThor]

Wow, SC State at 47. By far the most "overrated"* in the human polls. Most underrated is NAU.

*I am in no way stating opinion, just the deviation of the polls from the poll/computer blend.

[IaaScribe]

And Bethune-Cookman is out of the Top 25 in the GPI. Most overrated teams are Richmond, Liberty, Bethune-Cookman, Penn and South Carolina State.

[TexasTerror]

I ask this every week, but no one responds - out of curiosity - can CSN release the modified GPI that would have been used by the NCAA to determine the Bridge AQ qualification? Curious to see where Jacksonville and Dayton fall and if they would have had a chance at the computer portion of the bridge.

Check out the numbers in the spreadsheet links - the modified GPI would not be much different, if anything the components left out boost Jacksonville and Dayton instead of knock'em down.

[emilimo701]

a spot-on top 25 if you ask me.

[danefan]

Check out the numbers in the spreadsheet links - the modified GPI would not be much different, if anything the components left out boost Jacksonville and Dayton instead of knock'em down.

The NCAA GPI uses the following 5 computer rating systems: Massey, Wolf, Laz, Ashburn and Self. The Standard GPI uses 4 of those 5. Curiously the Standard GPI does not use Wolf, the ranking which has Jacksonville and Dayton ranked the highest (14 and 19 repsectively). It doesn't change it for JU or Dayton dramatically, but it does change the rest of the Top 25 and I'm curious as to why the Standard GPI is not considering a rating which the NCAA feels is one of the 5 most credible.

Anyway, I did the spreadsheet and the Top 35 in the NCAA GPI looks like this:

1. Delaware
2. App State
3. SFA
4. Jacksonville St.
5. W&M
6. Villanova
7. Eastern Washington
8. Wofford
9. New Hampshire
10. Montana State
11. Chattanooga
12. Montana
13. James Madison
14. Northern Iowa
15. Wetern Illinois
16. Northern Arizona
17. SEMO
18. North Dakota State
19. Sacremento State
20. Cal Poly
21. South Dakota State
22. UMass
23. Furman
24. Sam Houston State
25. Bethune Cookman


26. Georgia Southern
27. Richmond
28. Grambling
29. Jacksonville
30. Liberty
31. Robert Morris
32. Penn
33. South Carolina St.
34. Lehigh
35. Dayton


Anyone from CSN care to comment on why the Standard GPI does not use Wolf? Or at least I don't see it on the google docs spreadsheet.

[asknoquarter21]

wait, why is UD still number one there?

[danefan]

wait, why is UD still number one there?

Here are the #1 rankings in the 5 computer ratings that the NCAA recognizes:

Wolf - Jacksonville State
Ashburn - Stephen F. Austin
Massey - Delaware
Laz - Delaware
Self - Delaware

Here's App State's rankings:

Wolf - 2
Massey - 3
Laz - 2
Ashburn - 2
Self - 6

[asknoquarter21]

Here are the #1 rankings in the 5 computer ratings that the NCAA recognizes:

Wolf - Jacksonville State
Ashburn - Stephen F. Austin
Massey - Delaware
Laz - Delaware
Self - Delaware

Here's App State's rankings:

Wolf - 2
Massey - 3
Laz - 2
Ashburn - 2
Self - 6

very interesting

I assume ASU #2 in all 5?

I understand UD as a 1 after the schedule they have played, but they have lost to a team ranked below them.

I would like to see those formulas

[danefan]

very interesting

I assume ASU #2 in all 5?

I understand UD as a 1 after the schedule they have played, but they have lost to a team ranked below them.

I would like to see those formulas

Looks like I may have edited as you were typing.

ASU's rankings:
Wolf - 2
Massey - 3
Laz - 2
Ashburn - 2
Self - 6

[asknoquarter21]

Looks like I may have edited as you were typing.

ASU's rankings:
Wolf - 2
Massey - 3
Laz - 2
Ashburn - 2
Self - 6

I would assume Massey ranks W&M 2 with quite an emphasis on SoS.

I honestly can't understand how Self could come up with ASU at 6 unless losses don't matter

[biggie]

I would assume Massey ranks W&M 2 with quite an emphasis on SoS.

I honestly can't understand how Self could come up with ASU at 6 unless losses don't matter
Computers suck, that should answer some questions. Was thinking that's why we weren't in the BcS, but more and more computers are getting involved it seems.

[WrenFGun]

UNH up to #8 in the rankings...if they can win 2 of 3 they're going to look solid GPI wise despite two heinous losses.

[chattanoogamocs]

It is interesting to look through all the rankings for Chattanooga...they are ranked higher in every computer poll than they are in the 2 human polls (and if you go look at Massey and the 40+ rankings, it still holds true)

I would say that is a good example of the natural human bias of wanting a program to "pay their dues".
(AGS poll excluded)

[ejjones]

Wow, SC State at 47. By far the most "overrated"* in the human polls. Most underrated is NAU.

*I am in no way stating opinion, just the deviation of the polls from the poll/computer blend.

No, this means the computers got it wrong, and humans should actually be used for something. Whenever 10 or 11 teams are in the top 50 and they all have losing records...then we have a problem. Especially, top 25 (18 & 23) where two teams have losing records. How can this poll be considered as a tool to be used for at-large consideration when many teams ranked in the top 50 will not have the required minimal wins to even get an invitation. I just find this poll really laughable, at best. xnodxxsmileyclapx

[WrenFGun]

No, this means the computers got it wrong, and humans should actually be used for something. Whenever 10 or 11 teams are in the top 50 and they all have losing records...then we have a problem. Especially, top 25 (18 & 23) where two teams have losing records. How can this poll be considered as a tool to be used for at-large consideration when many teams ranked in the top 50 will not have the required minimal wins to even get an invitation. I just find this poll really laughable, at best. xnodxxsmileyclapx

The simple fact of the matter is that the GPI illustrates who you've beat/who you've played better than the other polls. SCST is being voted in on reputation alone and lost their only games of significance to this point .. they don't deserve to be ranked right now.

[chattanoogamocs]

The simple fact of the matter is that the GPI illustrates who you've beat/who you've played better than the other polls. SCST is being voted in on reputation alone and lost their only games of significance to this point .. they don't deserve to be ranked right now.

I concur...and to further expound on what the gentleman from New Hampshire said...any teams that end the season under .500, no matter where they are ranked in the computer polls, are going to be eliminated from consideration anyway...which moves up the teams behind them...so your complaint is basically moot.

(just like the RPI is a component for the NCAA basketball tournament, but they aren't going to take an under .500 BCS team, not matter what their RPI or SOS).

[ngineer]

UNH up to #8 in the rankings...if they can win 2 of 3 they're going to look solid GPI wise despite two heinous losses.

A good team can afford a "heinous" loss or two, IF they occur early in the season so as to have enough time to be 'redeemed.'

[ngineer]

It is interesting to look through all the rankings for Chattanooga...they are ranked higher in every computer poll than they are in the 2 human polls (and if you go look at Massey and the 40+ rankings, it still holds true)

I would say that is a good example of the natural human bias of wanting a program to "pay their dues".
(AGS poll excluded)

Teams or people with established reputations always have gotten the benefit of the doubt. That is human nature in most decision making, whether filling out a poll sheet, voting, hiring, purchasing, etc. A lot of people have to overcome years of 'baggage' before getting their props.

[ejjones]

I concur...and to further expound on what the gentleman from New Hampshire said...any teams that end the season under .500, no matter where they are ranked in the computer polls, are going to be eliminated from consideration anyway...which moves up the teams behind them...so your complaint is basically moot.

(just like the RPI is a component for the NCAA basketball tournament, but they aren't going to take an under .500 BCS team, not matter what their RPI or SOS).

I realized the < .500 won't get an invitation (so why rank so high), it's the principal. You can only play who's on your schedule. If you loose, it's still a lost. So, because the SEC has the hardest FBS conference in America, and a school goes .500 they should still be ranked ahead of the Big East, Conf USA, ect team that goes 9-2 just because one of those wins just so happen to be against a great opponent. The argument is still ludicrous that a below .500 team is ranked in the top 25. xhurrayx

[Keeper]

Please, his name is Wolfe, not wolf.
He is respected and has earned it, okay guys?

[WrenFGun]

I realized the < .500 won't get an invitation (so why rank so high), it's the principal. You can only play who's on your schedule. If you loose, it's still a lost. So, because the SEC has the hardest FBS conference in America, and a school goes .500 they should still be ranked ahead of the Big East, Conf USA, ect team that goes 9-2 just because one of those wins just so happen to be against a great opponent. The argument is still ludicrous that a below .500 team is ranked in the top 25. xhurrayx

...or you could realize this and schedule a more difficult OOC schedule? Instead you played a difficult to beat FBS team, a non DI team and a terrible SWAC team. You don't give yourself any room for error when you play that schedule.

[WileECoyote06]

I realized the < .500 won't get an invitation (so why rank so high), it's the principal. You can only play who's on your schedule. If you loose, it's still a lost. So, because the SEC has the hardest FBS conference in America, and a school goes .500 they should still be ranked ahead of the Big East, Conf USA, ect team that goes 9-2 just because one of those wins just so happen to be against a great opponent. The argument is still ludicrous that a below .500 team is ranked in the top 25. xhurrayx

Remember, this isn't really a 'ranking'. It's a 'calculation'. The human polls tend to compensate for those factors that computers tend to overvalue.

[WileECoyote06]

...or you could realize this and schedule a more difficult OOC schedule? Instead you played a difficult to beat FBS team, a non DI team and a terrible SWAC team. You don't give yourself any room for error when you play that schedule.

SCSU tried; they couldn't work out the details with some schools. Especially when you have schools from stronger conferences who have the option NOT to play you because they realize that just winning within their conference can get them a shot at a playoff bid (the SEC philosophy). The Benedict game was forced upon them due to contractual obligations. That's why they traveled to Columbia to play them.

Now, besides that; who is going to schedule their team to come to Orangeburg to play the Bulldogs; when they can ask Delaware State to travel to their home stadium? Not as much of a risk to lose, and you get a home game. SCSU wanted a home game as they have 15K fans they want to make happy since they couldn't get out of the Benedict game. Nobody was willing to bite. SCSU could have tried to recruit Towson and beat the hell out of them, then the knock would have been; well it was just Towson.

As fans, you all should think about scheduling from an ADs perspective. Your #1 purpose is to make money and get home games if possible.

[danefan]

Please, his name is Wolfe, not wolf.
He is respected and has earned it, okay guys?

Nobody is disrespecting the guy. The typo in his name is unintentional and quite frankly who cares? He puts his ranking out there (as do you) and he has to live with the criticism. On the other hand I'm not really seeing anyone criticizing the Wolfe ranking. I asked why CSN doesn't use it but the NCAA recognizes it. And as expected....crickets from CSN.

[WrenFGun]

SCSU tried; they couldn't work out the details with some schools. Especially when you have schools from stronger conferences who have the option NOT to play you because they realize that just winning within their conference can get them a shot at a playoff bid (the SEC philosophy). The Benedict game was forced upon them due to contractual obligations. That's why they traveled to Columbia to play them.

Now, besides that; who is going to schedule their team to come to Orangeburg to play the Bulldogs; when they can ask Delaware State to travel to their home stadium? Not as much of a risk to lose, and you get a home game. SCSU wanted a home game as they have 15K fans they want to make happy since they couldn't get out of the Benedict game. Nobody was willing to bite. SCSU could have tried to recruit Towson and beat the hell out of them, then the knock would have been; well it was just Towson.

As fans, you all should think about scheduling from an ADs perspective. Your #1 purpose is to make money and get home games if possible.

Why does the game have to be at home? Play on the road if you want to make the playoffs. Central Connecticut State, Albany, Lehigh, SE Missouri State, Liberty and Robert Morris all actually tried to schedule up and played someone worth something. It's hard to have any sympathy for SCST when these teams are in similar boats and are trying to do something about it..

[WileECoyote06]

Why does the game have to be at home? Play on the road if you want to make the playoffs. Central Connecticut State, Albany, Lehigh, SE Missouri State, Liberty and Robert Morris all actually tried to schedule up and played someone worth something. It's hard to have any sympathy for SCST when these teams are in similar boats and are trying to do something about it..

Ironically, it's rumored that Liberty was one of the teams SCSU was trying to play in a home-and-home series. SCSU was already scheduled for six road games and so was Liberty, so they couldn't work things out. I don't blame either team one bit for trying to get another home game.

Of the teams you mentioned so glowingly. .

CCSU has five home games and scheduled D2 Bentley.
Albany has four home games
RMU has 5 home games and hosted Liberty
Liberty has 5 home games including a virtual guarantee game against Savannah St
Lehigh has 5 home games and hosted Villanova
SEMO has 5 games and hosts D2 Southwest Baptist

So of those games that you mentioned, ONLY Albany has only four home games. The MEACs overall profile is what is dragging their computer numbers down as A & T and Del. State are having particularly horrid seasons. But we all saw last year that SCSU could play with the big boys and gave them the benefit of the doubt in our rankings.

I find it wholly ironic that instead of wondering if Bethune-Cookman is good, we gauge that loss to BCU by SCSU as an indicator that SCSU must not be as good as last year. Also, SCSU didn't receive a boost from playing BCU; they were negatively affected. Which was kind of weird.

K, sorry for the thesis.